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Spring and Summer will be good, covid likely seasonal, vaccines did their jobs
Saturdays are good days to assess cases since agencies often stop reporting on the weekends.
Cases seem to have peaked in most developed nations. Of the G7 nations, Germany and Japan seem to be the last to establish clear peaks. Average time from surge to peak is between 3-4 weeks which is where Germany is at the moment. In the cases of UK and Canada, the time to get back down to a base level looks like 5-6 weeks. Worldwide numbers appear to have peaked also.
[B]G7 Nations cases peaked[/B]
[URL]https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-11-08..latest&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA~DEU~GBR~FRA~ITA~JPN~CAN[/URL]
[B]World cases peaked.[/B]
[URL] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-11-05..latest&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~OWID_WRL[/URL]
As always, peak deaths follow 2-3 weeks after peak cases which is what above nations should be experiencing now, with Japan and Germany to follow in the next month.
[B]G7 nations Deaths currently at their peaks.[/B]
[URL] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-12-08..latest&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA~ITA~CAN~DEU~GBR~FRA~JPN[/URL]
After vax campaigns and recent Omicron exposure, over 90% of the world should have some combination of immunity either through vax or natural immunity decreasing future case severity. I dare to say spring should see some quiet times and extend though the summer. Other variants may arise but variants have consistently shown to become more and more transmissible but less and less lethal.
[B]World deaths peaks decreasing with each wave.[/B]
[URL] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~OWID_WRL[/URL]
[B]Over 80% of 2021 US deaths were amongst the unvaccinated.[/B]
Unvaxxed only make up about 25% of the US population but 80% of Delta-Omicron deaths, 70% of Delta-Omicron cases, and 65% of Omicron cases.
From April 2021 to December 2021 94 K unvax deaths compared to 22 K vax deaths in the USA, 6. 8 million cases unvaxxed compared to 2. 8 million vaxxed.
In December when Omicron took hold, unvaxxed cases (748 per 100 K) made up 4. 9 x more cases than boostered cases (148 per 100 K) and 2. 8 x more cases than vax unboostered (254 per 100 K). Death numbers for December still pending.
[URL] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm#T2_down[/URL]
Dare to say whatever variants arise, covid winters will go forth and mimic flu winters. I'm banking on an annual vaccine schedule and pray that governments and the people will not accept mandates and just leave it up to the people to decide for themselves how they want to approach their health. But the efficacy of vaccines and boosters although waning is clear after examining the data from the entirety of 2021. That's especially true for the 50 year old and up population, something quite pertinent for the average reader on this forum.
Point is, the numbers are clearly out there and the health impact of covid variants is leveling off. Add the fact that people have to tools and / recent exposure to protect themselves, people can now make their own decisions regarding vax or whatever without being a threat to others who have properly made the right decisions to protect themselves in the setting of their own health / immunity profiles.