Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates

Ah, it was going so great, but now there is quarantine in Medellin. Rappi still works and delivers anything, but chicas 😭.

[URL]https://medellinguru.com/medellin-quarantine/[/URL]

My gal made it to Mexico! Stunningly, she breezed through Mexican customs. She flew Copa from Medellin to Panama City and then to Guadalajara, Mexico. It was a marked change from how rough customs is in Mexico City where anyone from Venezuela and Colombia is roughly detained. It was even better than Cancun. The customs in Colombia harassed her about traveling, but Mexico was cool which shocked me. If you are thinking of brining in Colombian women to Mexico, I was told to go through Panama City, and the amount of money the women should have on them is $400 to $500. Of course, that they shouldn't be dressed like a **** and have a clear reason for coming. If the ticket prices stay this low, it would be a great middle ground for Americans and Colombians. In addition, Puerto Vallarta is a 4 hour drive or cheap flight from here for the beach lovers.

I am not seeing the hysteria here in Mexico with regards to the coronavirus here still. Only thing I would say is that the restaurants are not as full as they would seem to have been. From my point of view, the restaurants are often open air and nearly empty. Grocery stores still have water and toilet paper.

It is interesting to me how the alternative media has become much better IMO than the mainstream. I probably got more information from this podcast: [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw[/URL].

Than anywhere else.

The transcript is here: [URL]https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/joe-rogan-michael-osterholm-podcast-transcript-infectious-disease-expert-talks-coronavirus[/URL].

For the longest time in the stock market, I have bet against the doom and gloom Malthusian models. The mathematical certainty that we are going to run out of food back when Malthus predicted it or just recently peak oil. The doom and gloom predictions are always more popular than their cornucopian adversaries, but I cannot recall the Malthusians ever being right about anything.

There is a common line in market lingo "Number don't lie, but people do. " My corollary to that learned the hard way is, "and people lie about numbers. " So you have the number of tests done and the positive ones. That is an objective number, a good number, however I am not sure how many false positives and negatives there are. When it comes to deaths and death rate percentage, those numbers, and it is really important to remember this, are opinions and death rates sadly are so often manipulated for political purposes.

And it is important to remember cause of death is a government constructed number. I don't like the fact that a noncompliant diabetic hypertensive may get the virus and die, and the virus be listed as the sole cause of death. To me, it is like you have to achieve a score of 100 to die and maybe the virus adds a number to it 10,20, 30 whatever. That number may be based on how hearty your immune system is and how well you take care of yourself. The point is that if you are 80 already in health, and the virus adds 20 you die. If you are only at 20, then you don't die from it. I am not saying that I can come up with a better system of counting, but just understand that all these predictions are based on opinions of death rates, and they are not factual, and they often ignore underlying health conditions.

The mathematical models do not take into account any potential treatment either. That is always the flaw in Malthusian thinking. The cure to peak oil was fracking and not the stupid war in Iraq. That is the often destructive nature of Malthusian thinking.

After listening to Dr. Osterholm and his refreshing honesty, I realized that what eventually likely will happen is that most people will get the virus and form antibodies to it. This whole quarantine idea is that hopefully the virus will spread more slowly and not overwhelm our health care system.

It is funny though that people treat this like a life and death decision when there is really nothing that can be done as of now. People want to do something when something like this is on the news day and night experts and government give people things to do, and they want a novel solution to a new problem. But really, the best thing to do is the same old same old advice: If you are diabetic, control your sugars, if you have high blood pressure, take your medication, eat right, exercise, get plenty of sleep. Those seem to be the key to maintaining a healthy immunity and that more so than anything is going to prevent you from dying. It sure seems like everyone or nearly everyone is going to have to deal with this virus given how contagious it is.

[QUOTE=Junior11;2436142]Ah, it was going so great, but now there is quarantine in Medellin. Rappi still works and delivers anything, but chicas 😭.

[URL]https://medellinguru.com/medellin-quarantine/[/URL][/QUOTE]Did the math on Colombia cases. Basically 10 times for every 8 to 10 days. Same basic pattern as everywhere else basically. Just different "kick off" times. Colombia at 128 last number I saw. And deaths will follow the same pattern. At around 1-3% of the active cases, although the numbers are worse than that in Italy. So far countries don't seem to be avoiding this progression, except China that seems to have managed to limit the spread within the country. It is now a low risk location. Unlike the US, Canada, Europe. Etc.

This starts to level out at some point. But only China has been through the cycle so far. Some countries like Japan seem to have flattened out the curve, but certainly not so in US, and too soon to say for Colombia, etc. Canada. Maybe, but not showing yet.

There's a two week lag with anything that is done. In Canada we're basically in a no contact mode - 6 feet distance if you have to be out. Nothing open except groceries, etc. Etc. In a couple of weeks hopefully we'll see a drop in the rate of increase. That's the best that can be hoped for. For a few months anyway. We're at 7-800 cases in Canada. US somewhere around 10 times that.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2436156]Did the math on Colombia cases. Basically 10 times for every 8 to 10 days. Same basic pattern as everywhere else basically. Just different "kick off" times. Colombia at 128 last number I saw. And deaths will follow the same pattern. At around 1-3% of the active cases, although the numbers are worse than that in Italy. So far countries don't seem to be avoiding this progression, except China that seems to have managed to limit the spread within the country. It is now a low risk location. Unlike the US, Canada, Europe. Etc.

This starts to level out at some point. But only China has been through the cycle so far. Some countries like Japan seem to have flattened out the curve, but certainly not so in US, and too soon to say for Colombia, etc. Canada. Maybe, but not showing yet.

There's a two week lag with anything that is done. In Canada we're basically in a no contact mode - 6 feet distance if you have to be out. Nothing open except groceries, etc. Etc. In a couple of weeks hopefully we'll see a drop in the rate of increase. That's the best that can be hoped for. For a few months anyway. We're at 7-800 cases in Canada. US somewhere around 10 times that.[/QUOTE]Sorry for responding to my own post. But have to say this. To my friends in Colombia, and there are many. If you have any health issues, including just being old (like me) take care of yourselves. Meaning. In my opinion only. Lock yourselves away in your apartment, hotel. The other day as I was leaving Bogota I saw some older person being helped down the street by two family members. On the way to a clinic or something. I don't know what it was. But this thing could be in the thousands already in the cities. Apparently the numbers that actually have it can be as much as 10 times as those actually getting diagnosed. Anyway. The chances of running into it are going up by 10 times every few days. Say every 10 days roughly. So take care.

First part not directly related to Colombia but following up on Elvis 2008 post. Pretty sure this is the land border.

Trump announces USA -Mexico border closure to stem spread of coronavirus.

[URL]https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/03/19/u-s-mexico-officials-look-ban-non-essential-travel-across-border/2874497001/[/URL]

I noticed that one can still find flights to some of these destinations but with a huge link to the warning about the international travel advisory that basically says you may not get back into the country at any time in the foreseeable future.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2436161]Not directly related to Colombia but following up on Elvis 2008 post. Pretty sure this is the land border and.

Trump announces USA -Mexico border closure to stem spread of coronavirus.

[URL]https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/03/19/u-s-mexico-officials-look-ban-non-essential-travel-across-border/2874497001/[/URL]

I noticed that one can still find flights to some of these destinations but with a huge link to the warning about the international travel advisory that basically says you may not get back into the country at any time in the foreseeable future.[/QUOTE]It's not closed. They're stopping non-essential traffic. No tourists are going to be allowed in. You can still travel for work, hence trucks are still going to get through.

Reading the list of Exceptions to the Quarantine Order.

Personnel and vehicles that carry out the operation and logistics of the Medellin Lottery draw.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2436031]Seriously, is English your primary language? Because you are having a difficult time understanding some simple English. The death rate is not a count of anything, it is a percentage. Do you believe the confirmed count is an accurate count of everyone who has contracted the virus? If you can agree that there are people with the virus who have not been counted, then the death rate is not accurate. An inaccurate number used to determine a rate renders the rate inaccurate, which is useless.[/QUOTE]A mortality rate is rarely going to be accurate. Only with rare, completely contained outbreaks is there any chance to get it exactly right. Do you believe every case of the flu gets reported? Every year it's just an estimate.

To consider the other side, not every death caused by a disease is attributed to the disease. How many pneumonia deaths throughout Asia weren't attributed to COVID-19? Pneumonia is fairly common. At least early on, nobody knew to check for coronavirus.

But a mortality rate, or CFR (Case Fatality Ratio), as the researchers call it is useful, even at the beginning, when it's the most inaccurate. It provides a worst case potential for the disease. Which gives us the ability to overreact. In the case of infectious disease, overreacting is very important.

This seems to be your blind spot. The CFR in Wuhan was over 12%. That's high. Especially with a transmission rate over 2. Transmission rate is the number of people each infected person is expected to infect. In Italy CFR is 8%, still high. In the US we currently have no idea because widespread testing is still not happening. We'll have a better idea in a few weeks.

With an infectious disease, especially one which threatens to overwhelm our healthcare system, we can't wait until it's over, count up the dead and then decide if we should take it seriously. If your house is on fire, you don't stand around watching until it goes out, before deciding if you want to call the fire department. It's much better to have 4 firetrucks show up and have 1 guy put out the fire in 10 seconds than have nobody show up and 30 houses burn down.

That "useless", "inaccurate" "death rate" is why the world is shutdown. Again, it doesn't matter how useless you think it is. The people who have spent their entire careers working with these types of outbreaks don't think the numbers are useless. The people governments around the world call in any time there is an outbreak don't think the numbers are useless.

Unless you want to provide some credentials, showing your opinion is more valid than the WHO, CDC and NIH, I'm going to stick with them.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2436161]First part not directly related to Colombia but following up on Elvis 2008 post. Pretty sure this is the land border.

Trump announces USA -Mexico border closure to stem spread of coronavirus.

[URL]https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/03/19/u-s-mexico-officials-look-ban-non-essential-travel-across-border/2874497001/[/URL]

I noticed that one can still find flights to some of these destinations but with a huge link to the warning about the international travel advisory that basically says you may not get back into the country at any time in the foreseeable future.[/QUOTE]Same with the Canadian land border. Fortunately, I'm essential, regardless of what some may think. I'll be continuing to run back and forth across the border.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2436203]Same with the Canadian land border. Fortunately, I'm essential, regardless of what some may think. I'll be continuing to run back and forth across the border.[/QUOTE]I think your off a bit, did you mean to say "inessential".

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2436161]First part not directly related to Colombia but following up on Elvis 2008 post. Pretty sure this is the land border.

Trump announces USA -Mexico border closure to stem spread of coronavirus.

[URL]https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/03/19/u-s-mexico-officials-look-ban-non-essential-travel-across-border/2874497001/[/URL]

I noticed that one can still find flights to some of these destinations but with a huge link to the warning about the international travel advisory that basically says you may not get back into the country at any time in the foreseeable future.[/QUOTE]Well I am hosed, I live an hour and a half drive from Tijuana, and also have SENTRI to facilitate crossing back into the USA, but am not sure if banging hookers in Tijuana would qualify as "essential travel" by the CBP, but I consider it essential travel.

[QUOTE=Junior11;2436142]Ah, it was going so great, but now there is quarantine in Medellin. Rappi still works and delivers anything, but chicas 😭.

[URL]https://medellinguru.com/medellin-quarantine/[/URL][/QUOTE]I don't understand the logic of only a three day quarantine. Lots of people go out of town and travel on a holiday weekend and I can understand what their doing, but what happens on Tuesday, everything goes back to normal.

Is this perhaps a predecessor to weekend shutdowns moving forward? Doing what they want to do will help, but unless it's done like what's happening in other Countries like full time, it will only further delay the inevitable.

I think the Colombian Government is afraid to go into full shut down mode shuttering everything, and I can't blame them. This whole situation is so sad.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435973]I am comparing total deaths because we don't really know the death rate. Unless everyone was tested, we would not know the number of cases. So the death rate we are seeing is pretty much useless. For the coronavirus, it is now at about 1.5% in the US, and earlier reports showed it at 3.4%.

I don't know the relevance of most deaths in China are in one region. A majority of the deaths in the US are in two states.[/QUOTE]I've been showing ultimate restraint in not responding to your absolute, undeniable idiocy.

You're saying the DEATH RATE is not accurate because we don't know the total number of infections BUT you 100% trust the number of DEATHS that are recorded, do you even realize how idiotic that is?

Do you not realize there are 10 different ways to prove this number is also inaccurate? I'm sorry to start insulting people here, but you're a dumbass.

The 3. 4% mortality rate is a worldwide figure. There have been models generated that took account for the various changing factors you enjoy cherry-picking to fit your unfounded beliefs, including: not knowing all infections, not knowing all deaths because China was only recording deaths from people who were diagnosed positive covid BEFORE death, knowing many deaths have been attributed to pneumonia and not covid in certain countries like Thailand, taking into account the 10-20 day delay between infection growth and mortality. I could keep going. These models still found 3-4% mortality rate to be accurate in a variety of scenarios.

Clearly you think you are smarter than every advanced nation in the world, all the doctors who are fighting this, and the medical professionals working 20 hour shifts in the countries that have had spread before the US must all be lying about the severity of the issue. COME ON. You are not just irredeemably stupid, you may actually be retarded. If you are, let us know, I'll stop getting on you for it, because at least there would be a reason for this.

I've posted so many published, reviewed medical journal studies in this forum, it's absurd. I'm not doing more research for people, this shit is all easily searchable. I've been posting about it since China was below 20,000 confirmed cases. People were saying it was nonsense then. It took 7 weeks to get to 100,000 cases, it took 10 days to get to 200,000 cases, now we're at 275,000 cases in just 3 more days. We're going to be seeing 100,000 cases per day in less than a week. Clearly there are more, the bottleneck is TESTING.

I'll say it again, there is a 10-20 day DELAY FROM INFECTION TO DEATH, comparing current deaths to current infections is incorrect math. You said this "So the death rate we are seeing is pretty much useless. For the coronavirus, it is now at about 1. 5% in the US, and earlier reports showed it at 3. 4%. ".

So, you say the death rate is useless, but then in your very next sentence you infer it isn't that serious because it is 1. 5% vs 3. 4%, not even realizing that your math is wrong. JESUS CHRIST.

Here is another glimpse into your absolute genius "A majority of the deaths in the US are in two states. ".

I hope your tiny brain can understand that this is not contained by state lines. What in the actual f* does that have to do with anything? The US is borderline about to have the highest daily growth rate of any country in the world, give it two days. Do you even know how to read a graph?

There is so much data on this, it is overwhelming. How we are still arguing about this is blowing my mind.

Since we had been discussing this drug earlier in the thread, when I saw this article in the Mercury News it seemed like something that should be mentioned.

Be very careful self dosing chloroquine. Virus drug touted by President Trump, Elon Musk. Chloroquine can kill with just two gram dose. A Wuhan Institute of Virology study found that the drug can kill an adult just dosed at twice the daily amount recommended for treatment, which is one gram. It's forbidden for pregnant women as it can cause congenital defects in babies. The drug cannot be given to pregnant women, those with heart disease, terminal liver and renal disease, retina and hearing loss and patients on antibiotics such as azithromycin and steroid.

[URL]https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/20/virus-drug-touted-by-president-trump-elon-musk-can-kill-with-just-two-gram-dose/[/URL]

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2436281]Since we had been discussing this drug earlier in the thread, when I saw this article in the Mercury News it seemed like something that should be mentioned.

Be very careful self dosing chloroquine. Virus drug touted by President Trump, Elon Musk. Chloroquine can kill with just two gram dose. A Wuhan Institute of Virology study found that the drug can kill an adult just dosed at twice the daily amount recommended for treatment, which is one gram. It's forbidden for pregnant women as it can cause congenital defects in babies. The drug cannot be given to pregnant women, those with heart disease, terminal liver and renal disease, retina and hearing loss and patients on antibiotics such as azithromycin and steroid.

[URL]https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/20/virus-drug-touted-by-president-trump-elon-musk-can-kill-with-just-two-gram-dose/[/URL][/QUOTE]I saw this in Bloomberg too. It's not entirely accurate. Chloro is quite safe and one of the best protocols for covid is both Chloro and Azithro. I know people who have been taking Chloro for 25 years for autoimmune disease and while they get checked every 6 months, they have had no adverse side effects. Aspirin can also kill you at high doses. That article is very misleading and has inconsistencies.

Here are multiple studies on the safety of Chloro and Cardiac Safety:

[URL]https://academic.oup.com/europace/article/16/6/887/559803[/URL]

[URL]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16942005[/URL]

[URL]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2460205[/URL]

[URL]https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circep.111.966820[/URL]

[URL]https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM195804172581608[/URL]