General Info

[QUOTE=GoodEnough;2019332]I know several foreigners who have done very well here running a variety of businesses. What sets them apart from the rest of the crowd is their intimate knowledge of the country, their carefully cultivated and maintained connections, and the almost impenetrable webs of fronts they've managed to establish. GE.[/QUOTE]For what it's worth, I have observed that what is needed in many developing countries like the Philippines are personal networks with the right people. In more developed countries a person can count on walking into the small business administration, the local office of land use planning, or the loan office of a regional bank, and expect to get more or less the same treatment as the next guy (with the exception of a few discriminatory practices). But in the Philippines the discretion to make important decisions (and therefore "power") is held by the person rather than in the person's official position. So it truly matters "who you know," and the "carefully cultivated and maitained connections" that GE describes typically take a lot of time to develop, because you can't just assume to go to the official position where decision authority is supposed to reside. You have to first figure out who is "the man" (or occasionally the woman), and then figure out how to cultivate a relationship with that person. And there is never just one man you need to cultivate, you have to cultivate the entire "web of fronts they've managed to establish. ".

For what it is worth, the USA Embassy in Manila on April 9 issued a travel warning, which in part reads:

"The USA Embassy has received unsubstantiated yet credible information that terrorist groups may attempt to conduct kidnappings in Central Visayas, which includes both Cebu and Bohol provinces. USA Citizens are advised to carefully consider this information as you make your travel plans, and to review personal security plans, avoid large crowds and gatherings, and remain vigilant at all times."

The link of the full travel warning is at: [URL]https://ph.usembassy.gov/security-message-u-s-citizens-travel-advisory-central-visayas/[/URL].

Out of curiosity, does any seasoned traveler actually ever cancel or change travel plans because of travel warnings like this?

OM.

[QUOTE=Omega3;2020517]For what it is worth, the USA Embassy in Manila on April 9 issued a travel warning, which in part reads:

"The USA Embassy has received unsubstantiated yet credible information that terrorist groups may attempt to conduct kidnappings in Central Visayas, which includes both Cebu and Bohol provinces. USA Citizens are advised to carefully consider this information as you make your travel plans, and to review personal security plans, avoid large crowds and gatherings, and remain vigilant at all times."

The link of the full travel warning is at: [URL]https://ph.usembassy.gov/security-message-u-s-citizens-travel-advisory-central-visayas/[/URL].

Out of curiosity, does any seasoned traveler actually ever cancel or change travel plans because of travel warnings like this?

OM.[/QUOTE]I for one wouldn't change my travel plans to Philippines, nor would I change my plans to Cebu based on these warnings. Of course I am not going to the dangerous Mindanao areas either.

BTW, I have told my friends and family of my no ransom policy along with my DNR and pull the plug health directive.

[QUOTE=Omega3;2020517]For what it is worth, the USA Embassy in Manila on April 9 issued a travel warning, which in part reads:

"The USA Embassy has received unsubstantiated yet credible information that terrorist groups may attempt to conduct kidnappings in Central Visayas, which includes both Cebu and Bohol provinces. USA Citizens are advised to carefully consider this information as you make your travel plans, and to review personal security plans, avoid large crowds and gatherings, and remain vigilant at all times."

The link of the full travel warning is at: [URL]https://ph.usembassy.gov/security-message-u-s-citizens-travel-advisory-central-visayas/[/URL].

Out of curiosity, does any seasoned traveler actually ever cancel or change travel plans because of travel warnings like this?

OM.[/QUOTE]Same for Aussies OM and mentions Cebu and Bohol in its circular, but would not change my plans. Lived in and visited far more dangerous places than the Philippines and am generally aware of things / surrounding but that is not to say I am 'cocky' / overconfident about it either.

[QUOTE=Dg8787;2020744]I for one wouldn't change my travel plans to Philippines, nor would I change my plans to Cebu based on these warnings. Of course I am not going to the dangerous Mindanao areas either.

BTW, I have told my friends and family of my no ransom policy along with my DNR and pull the plug health directive.[/QUOTE]The US Embassy issues similar warnings every couple of months, and more frequently if it receives credible intelligence of possible problems. I would encourage any American coming here to sign up for the travel warnings; the sign-up is free from the Embassy website, and it never hurts to have the information. I believe other Western Embassies issue similar alerts fairly regularly. I've never altered any travel plans due to information contained in these reports, but if I were planning a trip to Cebu in the near future the latest report might cause me to reconsider.

GE.

[QUOTE=GoodEnough;2020813] I've never altered any travel plans due to information contained in these reports, but if I were planning a trip to Cebu in the near future the latest report might cause me to reconsider. [/QUOTE]I agree with GE.

This advisory, together with the one I read on the Australia site, seems to be a bit more specific than usual; it's not vague, and it "seems" to be based on credible intel.

If I was scheduled to visit Cebu I would probably still go but I would stay in my usual hang-outs around Ayala Mall and Parklane Hotel and be more wary about wandering around Gen Maxilom (aka Mango) Ave on my own.

[QUOTE=RedKilt;2020910]I agree with GE.

This advisory, together with the one I read on the Australia site, seems to be a bit more specific than usual; it's not vague, and it "seems" to be based on credible intel.

If I was scheduled to visit Cebu I would probably still go but I would stay in my usual hang-outs around Ayala Mall and Parklane Hotel and be more wary about wandering around Gen Maxilom (aka Mango) Ave on my own.[/QUOTE]You said credible maybe this is what was meant.

[URL]http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/888311/police-military-team-10-armed-men-clash-in-bohol-report[/URL]

Bohol would be a fairly easy target. Lots of resorts and tourists, am wondering what D30 will do about AS now given this news?

[QUOTE=RedKilt;2020910]I agree with GE.

This advisory, together with the one I read on the Australia site, seems to be a bit more specific than usual; it's not vague, and it "seems" to be based on credible intel.

If I was scheduled to visit Cebu I would probably still go but I would stay in my usual hang-outs around Ayala Mall and Parklane Hotel and be more wary about wandering around Gen Maxilom (aka Mango) Ave on my own.[/QUOTE]Looks like the advisory was legit. Just popped up on my news monitor.

[URL]http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/04/11/five-dead-armed-men-attack-tourist-island-philippines[/URL]

There is now some inference here that the "unsubstantiated yet credible" source was actually a Facebook post on Saturday by a local cop in Asturias, something to the effect that ASY might be spotted here. That Saturday Facebook post preceded the travel warning by AmEmb the following day, Sunday.

Today, Tuesday, there is a plea by the head of Cebu police to the public not to spread unwarranted rumors on social media and, coincidentally, the Asturias police station head has been transferred from that post.

Cebu Province Vice Governor Agnes Magpale was quoted as saying something to the effect that if ever there are fewer American tourists, no big deal, because their numbers are far less than the Koreans anyway.

The show goes on.

OM.

P. S. Tuesday, April 11, Bohol, Philippines. Breaking News.

Local social media are abuzz with reports of pitched battle in Inabanga, Bohol, between government forces (PNP and Army) and a heavily armed bandit group, possibly led by Abu Sayaf sub-leader Abu Rami, believed to be attempting to infiltrate by boat from Mindanao.

Per initial reports: 5 bandits, plus 1 policeman and 3 Army soldiers have been killed.

This appears to be legitimate, and not unsubstantiated rumor or fake news. If true, this will be bad news for the Philippines and ASEAN.

OM.

P.S. Inabanga is on the northern coast of Bohol, approximately 70 km north of Tagbilaran. The ASEAN Bohol Summit had been scheduled to start April 18-22 on Panglao Island, south of Tagbilaran.

[QUOTE=RedKilt;2020910]This advisory, together with the one I read on the Australia site, seems to be a bit more specific than usual; it's not vague, and it "seems" to be based on credible intel.[/QUOTE]Interesting. I was reading Omega's website (US State Dept) about the warning. Was not aware of this:

[I]The Bureau of Immigration may consider the participation of foreigners in demonstrations or political rallies in the Philippines to be a violation of the terms of admission. *Foreign nationals who participate in demonstrations or political rallies may be detained and deported for violating Philippine immigration laws.[/I]

[URL]https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/country/philippines.html[/URL]

By chance I have stumbled across several rallies / demonstrations where the locals were unhappy with their situation. By simply asking questions of the locals involved, I'm sure that it might appear to anyone watching the demonstration (ie LE) that I might be part of it. I like finding out what is so important to bring them out to the streets and talking about issues. From now on I should give these things a pass and walk away.

[QUOTE=WestCoast1;2021059]Interesting. I was reading Omega's website (US State Dept) about the warning. Was not aware of this:

[I]The Bureau of Immigration may consider the participation of foreigners in demonstrations or political rallies in the Philippines to be a violation of the terms of admission. *Foreign nationals who participate in demonstrations or political rallies may be detained and deported for violating Philippine immigration laws.[/I]

[URL]https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/country/philippines.html[/URL]

By chance I have stumbled across several rallies / demonstrations where the locals were unhappy with their situation. By simply asking questions of the locals involved, I'm sure that it might appear to anyone watching the demonstration (ie LE) that I might be part of it. I like finding out what is so important to bring them out to the streets and talking about issues. From now on I should give these things a pass and walk away.[/QUOTE]I am surprised you didn't know about this WC.

Maybe you should RTFF a bit more (joke, joke joke as the local girls say).

All advisories stress this over and over.

One innocent but inquisitive foreigner bystander / observer was actually attacked by demonstrators near the EDSA shrine at the height of the anti-Erap protests. Take your own advice and hot-foot it back to the hotel and watch it unfold on ANC news.

[QUOTE=Omega3;2021011]<SNIP>

Cebu Province Vice Governor Agnes Magpale was quoted as saying something to the effect that if ever there are fewer American tourists, no big deal, because their numbers are far less than the Koreans anyway.

[/QUOTE]Not to de-value anything you say Om BUT you know as well as I do that you never take any notice of what locals say regarding how safe their places are.

I have numerous examples of girls telling me to come visit them in (insert place names) because it is safe and "I will look after you". This occurs when news reports describe torrid battles going on in the immediate vicinity. Of course it's safe for them. They live there.

The local government officials are also worried about scaring away potential tourists, especially locals, so they will sugar coat everything. I reported in a post 2 or 3 years ago about how a senior Department of Tourism official at a workshop that I attended said that more than 80% of tourism revenue came from local tourists. Foreign visitors make up only a small portion of the overall sum. It's the sheer volume of locals staying just a few nights all over the country that adds to the total budget, even if it's presumed that foreigners spend more during their short time in-country.

I had no reason to doubt him, and my experience of regularly staying at hotels all over the Philippines as part of my work reveals that most people at breakfast are locals and their families, even in the 5-star places. Check it out next time you are staying at a hotel.

[QUOTE=Omega3;2021035]P. S. Tuesday, April 11, Bohol, Philippines. Breaking News.

Local social media are abuzz with reports of pitched battle in Inabanga, Bohol, between government forces (PNP and Army) and a heavily armed bandit group, possibly led by Abu Sayaf sub-leader Abu Rami, believed to be attempting to infiltrate by boat from Mindanao.

Per initial reports: 5 bandits, plus 1 policeman and 3 Army soldiers have been killed.

This appears to be legitimate, and not unsubstantiated rumor or fake news. If true, this will be bad news for the Philippines and ASEAN.

OM.

P.S. Inabanga is on the northern coast of Bohol, approximately 70 km north of Tagbilaran. The ASEAN Bohol Summit had been scheduled to start April 18-22 on Panglao Island, south of Tagbilaran.[/QUOTE]I am somewhat surprised at this as I didn't know that the ASG was active in Bohol. However, skirmishes like this happen frequently here in Mindanao, with the AFP never capable of exactly winning and the ASG fading back into the Bush. I've heard / read two sets of analyses about the insurgency. A recently retired US Special Forces soldier who served in Mindanao told me that the AFP doesn't really want to win, as to do so would reduce the amount of military assistance (from which lots of people profit) provided by other countries. He also told me that the command structure here is so slerotic that field commanders must actually receive faxed approvals from their superiors before they're allowed to act. This guy gave me an example of such behavior that I won't repeat here, but did say that the "active" number of ASG troops is less than 300, and that any Western special forces group could wipe them out in a week. The alternative view, espoused by some Filipino academics is that though small in number, ASG fighters are sheltered by the poor Muslim communities from which they come, since the ASG distributes part of the bounty it receives from kidnapping within the communities, while the government provides them little to no assistance. If the latter view is true, there's no particular reason for the sheltering communities to cooperate with the government as they have nothing to gain by doing so.

I've also heard from US troops and security forces that have served here that the AFP is poorly equipped, poorly trained and poorly led, but again, I've got no basis for confirming if this is true. What I do know is that during the past four decades or so of conflict, the government has been unable to eradicate the group and shows no signs of being able to do so now.

The socio-economic reasons for the rise of ASG the NPA and similar groups of intransigeants were inherited by Duterte and the roots of the struggle of poor Muslims (ASG) and dirt-poor subsistence farms (NPA) are buried deep in the history of this place and unless and until those historical realities are dealt with on the ground, peace in Mindanao remains unlikely.

GE.

[QUOTE=WestCoast1;2021059]Interesting. I was reading Omega's website (US State Dept) about the warning. Was not aware of this:

[I]The Bureau of Immigration may consider the participation of foreigners in demonstrations or political rallies in the Philippines to be a violation of the terms of admission. *Foreign nationals who participate in demonstrations or political rallies may be detained and deported for violating Philippine immigration laws.[/I]

[URL]https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/country/philippines.html[/URL]

By chance I have stumbled across several rallies / demonstrations where the locals were unhappy with their situation. By simply asking questions of the locals involved, I'm sure that it might appear to anyone watching the demonstration (ie LE) that I might be part of it. I like finding out what is so important to bring them out to the streets and talking about issues. From now on I should give these things a pass and walk away.[/QUOTE]Last time I arrived at Terminal 3 , a few weeks back, there are actually printed signs on the Immigration officers booths that actually said the same.