Someday, someday, someday
[QUOTE=Tiny12;2928459]Please up your game or Gish Gallop or whatever you want to call it.
Here's Biden's problem:
[URL]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0252881600Q[/URL]
Real wages were up about 6. 5% during Trump's term. They're down 2. 5% during Biden's time in office. Prices of goods and services have gone up faster than wages. I'm not necessarily saying Biden is responsible, although his American Rescue Plan did kick off inflation in the USA before it hit other countries. But people's perception is they're worse off now than when Biden came to office. The irony is that Democrats needlessly pumped a huge amount of stimulus into the economy in 2021 and 2022, and instead of buying lots of votes they ended up with inflation, lower real wages, deficits of 7% of GDP, and federal debt held by the public around 100% of GDP. That's not a pretty picture.
Please cite any time during the debate when Biden wasn't babbling. Trump simply refused to answer the questions. Instead he talked about whatever he wanted.[/QUOTE]Someday I would love to see what an incoming Repub would do in the midst of the kind of historic, unprecedented shitstorm of a "Once in 100 Years Disaster", millions upon millions of jobs wiped out, double digit unemployment rates, CEOs of every major company in America if not the world diving under their beds and refusing to come out come our wherever you are, stock market Crashes and all the other typical conditions that all too often exist when Dems take over from Repubs.
Biden was faced with two of the worst versions of it in history, taking over at or near the top in the Executive Branch after GW Bush AND Donald J. Trump!
Holy shit. Can you imagine?
Oh, I am so sure the incoming Repub will be able to recover the entire global economy from the kind of crap results Repubs produce without triggering even transitional inflation, 15 million jobs created (that would be a record for the past 4 Repub presidents combined!) and everything running as smooth as a Swiss watch without so much as an extra dime added to the deficit.
There is a reason Repubs must demonize economic reovery inflation; they have never been given the opportunity to recover anything from the outgoing Dem!
Well, we do have one example of a Repub taking over just as the economy was about to Crash BIG TIME: when Hoover took from Coolidge after 8 years of total Repub control of the Federal government, WH, House and Senate. Yep, we ceryainly know how Repubs would handle such a total Repub shitstorm from that example; he makes it much, much worse and for many more years.
Looks like Fred forgot about that other sterling Trump economic condition he created; laying the ground work for, creating and exacerbating Trump's Pandemic.
The greater achievement of Biden's American Rescue Plan was that it recovered America better, faster and stronger from Trump's Pandemic than any other economic power, thereby recovering the rest of the world since we are the main customers and impetus for the global supply chains Trump's economic and national security decisions in 2018,2019 and 2020 caused.
And he did it without triggering a Global Depression or so much as a Global Recession. Unlike Repub Hoover.
So I suppose now you are a big supporter of former Mainstream Media darling but now mostly mysteriously Missing In Action Larry Summers' and every other notable economists' assessment that this time Trump's idiotic economic plans for his 2nd term will skyrocket inflation and not lower the cost of anyone's rent, food and gas, right?
Verbal ticks aside, there was more truth and substance in any one of Biden's responses to the Presidential Debate Quiz Show questions and in his ABC interview than on all of Trump's evasive, ignorant, blathering and demented rapid fire Gish Gallop 30-50 lies in just his 45 minutes of the Show combined. And we can include in all of his MAGA rallies combined, too, for that matter.
BTW, about the increase in wages under Trump
[QUOTE=Tiny12;2928459]Please up your game or Gish Gallop or whatever you want to call it.
Here's Biden's problem:
[URL]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0252881600Q[/URL]
Real wages were up about 6. 5% during Trump's term. They're down 2. 5% during Biden's time in office. Prices of goods and services have gone up faster than wages. I'm not necessarily saying Biden is responsible, although his American Rescue Plan did kick off inflation in the USA before it hit other countries. But people's perception is they're worse off now than when Biden came to office. The irony is that Democrats needlessly pumped a huge amount of stimulus into the economy in 2021 and 2022, and instead of buying lots of votes they ended up with inflation, lower real wages, deficits of 7% of GDP, and federal debt held by the public around 100% of GDP. That's not a pretty picture.
Please cite any time during the debate when Biden wasn't babbling. Trump simply refused to answer the questions. Instead he talked about whatever he wanted.[/QUOTE]I pointed this out before, but I can see it is time for a reminder; The increase in wages under Trump had virtually zero to do with anything Trump said, did, blathered, proposed or passed.
Since we know Trump's one and only $2. 5+ Trillion economic "stimulus" legislation in all 4 years of his so-called presidency until his Trump's Pandemic required billions and billions in emergency relief checks (while millions and millions of jobs were being wiped out) did not create 1 net job gain in his 3 merely below average economy years pre Trump's Pandemic vs the 3 previous years without it:
[B]Obamas Last Three Years Of Job Growth All Beat Trumps Best Year.[/B]
[URL]https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/07/obamas-last-three-years-of-job-growth-all-beat-trumps-best-year/[/URL]
[B]CEOs admit they won't create jobs with their tax cut money.
Despite White House hype, businesses aren't very interested in investing their extra profits.[/B]
[URL]https://www.salon.com/2017/11/17/ceos-admit-they-wont-create-jobs-with-their-tax-cut-money/[/URL]
[B]Q.What were the economic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act?[/B]
[URL]https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-were-economic-effects-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act[/URL]
[QUOTE]A.Most analysts expected the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to boost economic output modestly in both the short and the longer run. The evidence supports the prediction for the short run. Because they are confounded by the large and lasting effects of the COVID. pandemic and related policies, we will probably never be able to disentangle the long-term effects. [B]However there was little evidence of a strong effect on investment that could lead to higher longer-run growth in the years before the pandemic.[/b][/QUOTE]And given Trump's history of shitting on the American worker at every turn, including the typically Repub rejection of raising workers' wages:
[B]Trump's Anti-Worker Record.[/B]
[URL]https://cwa-union.org/trumps-anti-worker-record[/URL]
Then what possible miracle could have caused wages to increase for ANYBODY under Donald Trump?
Uh. A gentle reminder:
[B]From California to New York, states are raising minimum wages in 2019 for 17 million workers.
Dec. 27, 2018[/B]
[URL]https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/12/27/minimum-wage-2019-which-states-increasing-next-year/2377035002/[/URL]
[QUOTE]Besides New York, workers in up to 21 other states and the District of Columbia will receive higher minimum wages next year, according to a National Employment Law Project report given exclusively to USA TODAY. About 17 million workers will benefit from the 2019 wage increases, the nonprofit estimates.[/QUOTE]Yeah, that's right. Despite Trump's typically Repub horrific results for the American worker, for jobs creation, for being anti-American Worker and resistant to wage increases, it tuned out that during most of those historically expensive, deficit-balooning, below average-to-horrific Trump economic years, primarily Blue cities and states, where the majority of American workers are gainfully employed anyway, enjoyed lovely increases in the minimum wage.
Which, as we all know, tends to inspire other employers to raise middle income wages as well.
It had nothing to do with anything Donald Trump did. At all. Donald Trump only did his best to wipe out jobs and depress American worker wages.
Think out-the-box and get your own damn, "Gish Gallop"...
[QUOTE=Elvis 2008;2927970]I almost fell out of my chair thinking you and Loony Tooms think you have great minds. You two are certainly in line for Electroconvulsive therapy. You two have that in common. To be fair, a more fair person like Tiny might say you, Tooms, and Xpartan are suffering from cognitive dissonance. [/QUOTE]
Your response is why I love to use that quote...so very much! Thanks Elvis 2008, for reaffirming what the quote means! (...kkkk!)
[QUOTE=Tiny 12;2928204][b]The Art of the Gish Gallop[/b] Elvis doesn't Gish Gallop. [b]He thinks out of the box.[/b] Trump does, but he's not an effective practitioner of the art because his misrepresentations are so ridiculous. As Sidney Powell's lawyers argued in Dominion Voting System's defamation case against her, many of Trump's lies are so ridiculous or so hyperbolic that no one takes them seriously. [/QUOTE]
YES, Tiny 12, if there is an [b]"art"[/b] to the speech and talk of Gish Gallop, Elvis 2008 and Trump would definitely be the go to de facto standard! (...kkkk!)
[b]STOP ALREADY![/b] (Or as you Repubs would love say "...STOP THE STEAL! ...kkkk!) Really, you Repubs are just too much!
Up to your old tricks again, trying to co-opt and steal yet another brilliant word phraseology and [i]"coined phase"[/i], that was clearly created, constructed and conceived [b]BY[/b] Dems [b]FOR [u]OUR[/u] USE[/b] and consumption to describe Repub's word salad and unhinged forms of speech.
The nicely crafted, word phraseology, called Gish Gallop, perfectly encapsulates, articulates and best describes the type of [i][b]"gobbledygook"[/b][/i], Democrats have had to endure everyday, from likes of you,[i][b]"no nothing, do nothing"[/b][/i] QAnon/MAGA Republicans.
The term "Gish Gallop" is every bit Republican, as the word "Republican", itself.
Sheesh! Typical "copycat" Repubs, always trying to steal things (like elections), that without question and most assuredly, has been fashioned by Dems, to poetically describe Repubs.
[QUOTE=Tiny 12;2928204]Thanks for teaching us a new word Tooms! And for teaching us how to use it! Just like The Donald created Trump University to teach about real estate, perhaps you should start Tooms University to teach Gish Gallop. Just make sure you actually teach people something or you may get sued like Trump. [/QUOTE]
Yes, thanks to EihTooms! Yet another great article, on how to view and describe more [i][b]"no nothing, do nothing"[/b][/i] QAnon/MAGA Republicans, clogging up the American political system, with their "gish gallop". Yes, definitely a term that applies strictly to Repubs and their nonsense!
[b]PS:[/b] Thanks Tiny 12, for an other great example of whom "Gish Gallop" perfectly describes, by citing, the Repub lawyer trying to defend his, "Jewish Space Laser" bat-shit-crazy Repub client, Sidney Powell, with more bat-crazy-shit unhinged drivel, spoken by Repub ex-President "pussy-grabber", in Trump. One has to wonder, who's crazier?
Just like LEFT in Britain and France, President Biden will WIN in 2024...
President Joe Biden and Democrats, should take tremendous solace and joy, as the LEFT in both Britain and France, carry the day with great wins and how once again [b]"the polls"[/b], got it all so WRONG in their [b]careless predictions[/b] of a [i]"far right sweep"[/i] in France.
The LEFT and Center-LEFT citizens of France form a coalition to [u]REJECT[/u] the far-RIGHT and in Britain, the LEFT Labour Party, formed a landslide majority, over the [b]"14-year no nothing, do nothing"[/b] conservatives there.
So just as "the polls" have been dead wrong about France, President Joe Biden and almost every major and minor US elections and primaries since 2020, I suspect that, that losing trend will continue and President Biden, will indeed WIN in Nov 2024.
Banks are licking their chops at the prospect of another Repub Trump term
If you want more mid- to long-term inflation, a slower economy (read: crap jobs creation and wage gains), policies that help make banks and bankers wealthier, home builders less so and another fine and dandy Repub / Trump Recession (which are almost always "Great", of course), those polls showing Trump ticking up vs Biden should be very comforting for you.
And why haven't we heard much about that Reverse Yield Curve thingy lately? Perhaps because it does a bad job of predicting a Recession under Dem policy and stewardship but a "nearly infallible" job of it under Repub policy and stewardship. Oh, these Repub vs Dem economic results are just so magical and mysterious. LOL.
[B]Trump's increased election odds after debate already affecting financial markets.
July 8, 2024[/B]
[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/08/trumps-better-election-odds-after-debate-are-already-moving-markets.html?__source=androidappshare[/URL]
[QUOTE]Financial markets are slowly starting to absorb the possibility that what was once a toss-up presidential election campaign has taken a notable turn.
While it may yet become an overstatement to call the June 27 debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump a watershed moment, the incumbents halting and mumbling performance has changed views about where the race is headed.
In both polling data and the predictions market, the Republican challenger has become a solid favorite, up mid-single digits in several recent polls, with the specter lingering that Biden wont even be his partys nominee come November.
That has put investors in a quandary of how to handicap what a Trump presidency would look like from an economic and market standpoint.
"As Trumps numbers rose earlier last week, people started to speculate that [b]a Trump win would mean a little bit more mid- to long-term inflation, potentially slower economy, which is why the yield curve steepened a little bit, and which is why longer-term bonds got a little pressure earlier in the week[/b], said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert AdvisorNXT.
Were going to watch that, because theres no definitive sort of direction yet, but we feel that the market is starting to try to figure that stuff out, he added.
Stock market reaction has been fairly benign so far: The S&P 500 has continued to scale record heights, albeit gradually, and is up about 1.5% since the last close before the debate.
[B]However, the bond market has had a bit more of a reaction. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has gradually declined and, perhaps more importantly, has moved further below the 2-year note.
The phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, has been a nearly infallible predictor of recessions[/b], though the current inversion started in July 2022 and there has not been an official recession since. The inversion has steepened in the past several days as Trump has shown a post-debate polling bounce, indicating misgivings about the economys prospects.
Handicapping a second Trump presidency
Other market reaction regarding a potential Trump victory, as measured by Bank of Americas chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett: [b]winners were rates volatility, bets that benefit as the yield curve steepens, banks and technology. Losers have featured longer-dated bonds, homebuilders, renewable energy stocks and emerging market currencies.[/b]
Hartnett also noted that the odds of a Trump-led Republican sweep of the White House and both chambers in Congress have swelled to 36%.
Reading the tea leaves, though, has been difficult. The first Trump presidency and some of his campaign rhetoric nevertheless has led to guesswork about what could be ahead.
[B]"The extension of the 2017 tax cuts and potential deregulatory agenda of former President Trump are starting to get priced into the market, Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst for Raymond James, said in a note. This particularly favors financials and there will be an expectation of more M&A approval in a Trump presidency. A potential for more inflationary policies should also be closely monitored.[/b]
Reverse Goldilocks reaction
Inflation has been a major problem for Biden as the consumer price index has risen more than 19% on his watch, compared with less than 8% during Trumps time in office.
But it was the presidents stumbling debate performance that brought out the knives, with some congressional Democrats and mainstream media outlets such as The New York Times calling for him to step aside.
PredictIt, a widely watched though thinly traded predictions market, put Trumps chances of victory around 59% as of Monday afternoon.
However, in a switch, Bidens defiant statements that he would stay in the race caused a swing on the betting site, giving him a 29% chance of victory compared with 15% for Vice President Kamala Harris. In recent days, there had been heavy speculation that Harris could step in for Biden on the ballot, and she had overtaken his chances of being the nominee before that changed Monday.
PredictIt, though, now gives Biden a 56% chance of being the Democrat nominee, with Harris falling 12 points to just 31%.
Chris Krueger, Washington strategist for TD Cowen, called this week Bidens Gauntlet as it will be crucial to his viability as a candidate.
"Biden remains the presumptive nominee...for the time being, Krueger wrote, adding that Bidens interview Friday with ABCs George Stephanopoulos was a bit of a reverse Goldilocks: just good enough to stay in the race, but not good enough to alleviate concerns about acuity. [/QUOTE]
Hey you Leave Bangkok Bob alone
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2928511]And that is why I call you a douche. You disregard facts you do not like. You can take a walk down any street in a blue city and see it ravaged by drug doing, crime committing, mentally ill homeless people.
I had a number of links I could have chosen from with regards to cities not reporting crimes, and you can google it yourself and see it is true, but like I said, you are a douche who disregards facts he does not like.[/QUOTE]What crime there is no crime here.
I live here and these are all just MAGA lies.
[URL]https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/weekend-shootings-july-3-to-8/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1XjY-wU1qEcET4CX9V-j-q2YuXFxSeGTTVzFZ9VsvOzds31YYE-oasU4Y_aem_rymfttwwaiVaYRQtixZxfw[/URL]
And the OC is as safe as ever.
[URL]https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-07-05/two-dead-three-injured-in-huntington-beach-stabbing[/URL]
[URL]https://www.latimes.com/socal/daily-pilot/california/story/2024-07-03/fashion-island-shooting-leaves-one-dead[/URL]
I can post 1000 links everyday like this, 7 days a week from every city and state.
I've tried but I don't see them posted.
