Factchecking the drop in crime rates under Biden
A much, much better economy, more jobs available, higher wages and so on under Biden today vs under Trump 4 years or for that matter under Biden last year vs Trump 4 years prior to that would logically support lower crime rates under Biden than Trump anyway, of course.
And then there is this:
[B]Trumps Bogus Attack on FBI Crime Statistics.
May 3, 2024[/B]
[URL]https://www.factcheck.org/2024/05/trumps-bogus-attack-on-fbi-crime-statistics/[/URL]
[QUOTE]Former President Donald Trump said FBI data that show homicides and other violent crimes trending down are fake numbers. [b]Theyre not.[/b]
The FBI data for 2023 are preliminary, but crime statistics experts say the reporting behind the overall downward trend is solid, and that trend is validated when compared to data samples from local and state law enforcement reports.
The FBI statistics contradict Trumps campaign narrative, repeated at a May 1 rally in Wisconsin, about rampant and rising violent crime in the U.S. And polls that show most Americans believe crime is on the increase. But that doesnt mean the data are wrong or fudged, as Trump put it.
The FBI statistics are, however, incomplete, given that they measure only crimes reported to law enforcement some crimes, such as rape, are historically greatly underreported and not every law enforcement agency reports its statistics. [B]That has been the case for decades.[/b]
Trumps dismissal of the validity of the FBIs crime statistics reminds us of when Trump was running for president in 2016 and falsely labeled the unemployment rates published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as phony numbers.
At that time, Trump claimed the unemployment rate was really 42%. (The official unemployment rate then was 4.9%.) Less than two months after Trump took office, however, he was happy to cite BLS official unemployment rate. Sean Spicer, Trumps top spokesman at the time, joked in a press briefing about Trumps new embrace of the jobs data, Yeah, I talked to the president prior to this, and he said to quote him very clearly They may have been phony in the past, but its very real now.
According to the FBIs preliminary 2023 crime report, violent crimes dropped 5.7% between 2022 and 2023, and the number of murders declined 13.2%. Thats based on data from 79% of law enforcement agencies in the U.S., representing higher participation than any year during Trumps presidency. Murders and violent crime went up in 2020, Trumps last year in office, and murders continued to rise in 2021, albeit to a lesser extent, as violent crime ticked down a bit. Both have been declining since, according to FBI and other crime data.
.............
But the preliminary 2023 FBI report the one that found a 13.2% drop in murders and a 5.7% decline in violent crimes in 2023 compared with 2022 is based on 79.4% of agencies reporting.
Thats pretty good! Harvey said. Its higher than any reporting rate during the Trump presidency, and close to the highest observed reporting rate between 2000 and 2022 (81%).
[/QUOTE]My refusing to vote for any Repub since 1982 and only for Dems since 1996 means I have never voted for a single Great Repub Recession (after Reagan's in 1982, for which I humbly apologize), a single Great Repub Stock Market Crash, a single Massive Repub Jobs Destruction, The Repub / Bush Attack on 9/11, two quagmire, counterproductive Repub Wars in the Middle East based on 900+ Repub Lies, the Historic Financial Crisis, Trump's Historic Trillions added to the deficit with near zero to show for it, Trump's very expensive 1 million fewer jobs created in his first 3 below average economy years in office than the 3 previous years under Obama-Biden, Trump's Pandemic, Trump's Worldwide Economic and Supply-Chain Collapse, Trump's Massive Jobs Losses in the Millions, Trump's 1 million+ Mass Murder of Americans and Millions more around the globe, Trump's 2 Bear Market Declines, Trump's Inflation, Trump's Cop-attacking, Cop-maiming, Cop-killing Insurrection to overturn a free and fair election and overthrow American democracy, Trump and ChristFacist Mike's near victory in outlawing Sex For Pleasure in America, Trump's Spikes in Murder and Crime Rates etc and only for Historic Dem Economic Recoveries and Expansions, Historic Job Gains, Historic Dem Stock Market Gains, Lower Murder and Crime Rates, Infrastructure Improvements, No Great Recessions, No Stock Market Crashes, No Global Pandemic, No Worlwide Economic and Supply-Chain Colapse, No Hyper Inflation, No Quagmire, Counterproductive Wars, etc.
To any of you proud and loud Wingers and you pretend "Bothsider / Neithersiders" who are really Wingers hiding behind that label who DID vote for some or all of the former horrors for America but still have benefitted greatly from my Dem-only votes, I offer you my most heartfelt "You're welcome".
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Nate Silver is no Allan Lichtman
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2929704]LOL. You still have Biden in the election. Biden and Harris are dead even in the casino odds. I think Biden is going to try to make the donor class pay through the nose if they want him to step down.
538 no longer has Nate Silver making the calls. [URL]https://mishtalk.com/politics/538-predicts-biden-wins-nate-silver-has-trumps-odds-of-winning-at-72-percent/[/URL].
In a silly forecast, the 538 has Biden a tossup favorite. Nate Silver says Trump has a 72.2 percent chance. That fits in with casino odds where people are betting real money.
The battleground states in most polls are Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
Those in play for Trump right now than no one expected to be are Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Virginia, and New Hampshire.
Quite frankly, Trump is right now running a masterful campaign. For once, he has learned to shut up and not make headlines while the Democrats are imploding. The only time he has made news was to shut down the project 2025 nonsense and put out his own list of priorities.
If you do not see Trump is kicking your ass now, Loony Tooms, you need new glasses.[/QUOTE]What was so magical about the old 538 with Nate Silver vs the newer one without him? Have his forecasts been more accurate for all the actual election victories for Dems and underperformance for Repubs in the special elections and the mid-terms in 2018,2019, 2020,2021, 2022,2023 and so far in 2024?
The RCP Consensus Polls for the decisive Battleground states is not that much different than what is on 538 today, except that they have PA at the outer edge of a normal +/-MoE between Biden and Trump, which one might expect with a site like RCP that factors in Push Polls where likely Trumpsters / Repubs are pre-selected for their respondent samples. And they manipulate their updates to keep Trump / Repubs looking pretty there.
Otherwise, the No Toss-Up States EC Maps have remained the same for Biden for months, showing he needs to capture WI, MI and PA to hit 270 EC Votes.
Here is where it stands at 2:30 pm EST USA on the No Toss-Up States EC Maps and 538's Popular Vote, Electoral College Vote and their Forecast for WI, MI and PA, the 3 battleground states Biden needs to add to his current No Toss-Up tally in order to hit 270. Actually, as you can see, their Forecast today is that Biden would get 272 EC Votes:
[URL]https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/[/URL]
The TOP 10 Worst States to Live and Work In? All Red.
Yes, a high crime rate is also factored into what makes these typically Repub Trump Red states the worst places to live and work in the USA:
[B]These are America's 10 worst states for quality of life in 2024.[/B]
[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/13/10-states-worst-quality-of-life-america.html?__source=androidappshare[/URL]
[QUOTE]Worker shortages have eased a bit, but companies still look closely at quality of life when choosing a location that will attract skilled employees.
CNBCs annual ranking of state business climates considers quality of life among ten categories of competitiveness.
Quality of Life metrics include Crime, Child Care, Health Care, Environmental Quality, and Inclusiveness.[/QUOTE]I'll spare you the suspense.
With #1 being the Worst State to Live and Work In:
1. Texas.
2. Indiana.
3. Alabama.
4. Oklahoma.
5. Arkansas.
6. Tennessee.
7. Missouri.
8. Louisiana.
9. Kansas.
10. Arizona.
LOL. Jake Tapper clearly has Cognitive Impairment.
[QUOTE=MarquisdeSade1;2929812][URL]https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cook-report-six-states-move-toward-trump-in-new-ratings/vi-BB1pLNkM[/URL]
[URL]https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/10/biden-new-york-trouble-00167198[/URL]
[URL]https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/11/democrats-biden-freak-out-blue-states-00167477[/URL]
[URL]https://nypost.com/2024/03/24/us-news/south-american-crime-tourists-infiltrate-at-least-half-of-us-states-to-target-the-rich-thefts-way-way-up/[/URL]
[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/05/nyregion/nyc-restaurant-robberies.html[/URL][/QUOTE]At 3:30 in your first msn / Cook Report link, Jake Tapper asserts with ultimate youthful Mainstream Media News Anchor authority that George Cloony revealed that "the Donald Trump" he saw in the debate is the same "Donald Trump" he saw at the big fund raiser he had for him in LOS Angeles recently.
Oh no. Oh no. Worry, worry, worry. Did George Cloony really have a big fundraiser for Donald Trump recently or are we perhaps witnessing something uh much more uh serious and uh irreversible in Jake Tapper's mental acuity?
And the other lady did not notice and correct him. So she must suffering from senility and dementia too.
Lolol.
BTW, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, the three states Cook and Tapper are suddenly and breathlessly reporting are heading to Trump's side have been counted on Trump's side in the No Toss-Up States Maps for months already. Biden does not need them to win the 270 EC Votes.
American Familes AND Quality of Life matters...
[QUOTE=Elvis 2008;2929715]Well, this accusation went nowhere. The only reason SCOTUS has this number is the incessant Democratic whining. I would like to ask those who disapprove of the court why they do so, and I bet they could not tell me why. Of course, those of us with working brains wonder how you can be so for "rule of law" when it applies to Donald Trump and show contempt for SCOTUS when they decide how the law should be interpreted. [/QUOTE] Yes, I guess it's not surprising a wayward Repub would approve of corruption...Duh!
[QUOTE=Elvis 2008;2929715]In fact, if I had to ask those disapproving idiots, what percent of decisions were 9 to 0, I bet they would say none when in reality as of May 8, 2024, [URL]https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/supreme-court-unanimity-is-fleeting-with-tougher-cases-looming-37[/URL].
The court has issued 18 opinions in argued cases so far this term, 15 of which have been unanimous. ...
Yes, the communists here want one party rule on everything including SCOTUS. The only SCOTUS that could be fair is nine Democratic judges.[/QUOTE] And of those 15 unanimous decisions, probably half actually have a minority decent to them, but were forced/coerced by the majority, so as to have the outward appearance of unanimity and provide a united front in the decision.
[QUOTE=Elvis 2008;2929715]I was just in NYC by the way, ... There is a restaurant owner who opened up Mickey's Place, an Italian restaurant near Amarillo in Canyon, Texas. ...
I never thought I would see the day that those uber cocky New Yorkers who swear NYC is the greatest place on earth would be moving to ultrared Amarillo, Texas and be bragging about doing so, but it appears to be happening.[/QUOTE]
All very nice, but totally useless, anecdotal stories, as they do not represent, unfortunately the experience of the majority of Americans. So if your story is anecdotal of just more dudes moving to Texas, then sure by all means have your sausage fest (...kkkk!).
But with abortion bans, IVF and very soon contraception bans, in red states, destroying women's health, family lives and establishing a family, ever more difficult, is it any wonder many American families are looking to better establish and grow their families in blue states.
[QUOTE=EihTooms;2929870]Yes, a high crime rate is also factored into what makes these typically Repub Trump Red states the worst places to live and work in the USA:
[B]These are America's 10 worst states for quality of life in 2024.[/B]
[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/13/10-states-worst-quality-of-life-america.html?__source=androidappshare[/URL]
I'll spare you the suspense.
With #1 being the Worst State to Live and Work In:
1. Texas.
...[/QUOTE]
Elvis 2008, judging by the latest post, from EihTooms, [b]Texas is #1[/b] and [b]the worst state[/b] to live and work in. Look I'm sure Texas is a great state in many ways, just not great quality of life, or to live, or work, according to the latest from a majority of Americans.
But when you're at the bottom, it all up and onward from there...right? So I'm routing for y'all in Texas. And you and buddy boy, have fun in Texas...ya hear!
Additional Info w/r to NCVS and UCR FBI crime data...
[QUOTE=Elvis 2008;2929870]Okay, and now this is from the WSJ.
[URL]https://www.wsj.com/articles/lies-da...=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s.[/URL]
The USA Has two measures of crime. The Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting program counts the number of crimes reported to police every year. The Bureau of Justice Statistics, in its National Crime Victimization Survey, asks some 240,000 people a year whether they have been victims of a crime. [b]The two measures have diverged since 2020:[/b] The FBI has been reporting less crime, while more people say they have been victims.
The divergence is due to several reasons. In 2022,31% of police departments nationwide, including LOS Angeles and New York, didn't report crime data to the FBI. In addition, in cities from Baltimore to Nashville, Tenn. , the FBI is undercounting crimes those jurisdictions reported.
Another reason crimes reported to the police are falling is that arrest rates are plummeting. If victims don't believe criminals will be caught and punished, they won't bother reporting them.
End of link. I am cognitively impaired? You just spew out Democratic narratives and could give a rat's ass if they are true. Do you ever have an independent thought in your head? s.[/QUOTE]
BTW, your little puff-piece, entitled [i]"Lies, Damn Lies, and Crime Statistics-Can anyone believe what California politicians say about law and order?"[/i] seemed to be disingenuous, at providing the full picture to crime statistics and seem more interested in smear campaign of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA).
However, your link (well for me anyways) didn't provide the full-blown article. So the information I now provide, to complete the picture w/r to [b]FBI crime statistics "divergence"[/b], may have been mentioned, in the article , but I doubt it![LIST]1. The FBI can only report on the data it collects.
2. For 100 years the FBI have collected data from police departments throughout the country. The FBI have always had police departments NOT participating, partially participate or provide incomplete and partial data. The most recent complete year 2022, the FBI received data from 83% of participating agencies.
3. The "divergence" between the NCVS and UCR data is a misnomer. AS in 2021, the FBI incorporated [b]a new modernized data collection system[/b] and stopped taking data from the old system, while [u]ONLY ACCEPTING data on the new system[/u].
Hence the 31% jump in police dept. non-participation verses a historical avg. of 17%. As many police departments are still getting up to speed, with the new system requirements. [URL]https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs[/URL]
4. So as police departments, like FL, NY and LA, are gearing up to meet the new FBI system collection requirements, I suspect participation numbers will revert back to historical norms.[/LIST]
With the new system and the FBI looking to collect meaningful data on other crimes, like domestic violence, hate crimes and politically motivated crimes (I think?), it will interesting where the actual upticks in crimes are occurring, that match NCVS data (that does not include sexual assault, BTW).