Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates

"Starting Monday, Colombia will temporarily ban the entry of foreign visitors traveling from Europe and Asia, President Ivan Duque said Friday.

In response to the coronavirus pandemic, the borders with Venezuela will be closed on Saturday already, the president said.

Visitors from the Americas will still be able to enter Colombia, but be subjected to compulsory health checks and tracked. ".

[URL]https://colombiareports.com/coronavirus-colombia-to-close-borders-for-foreign-visitors-from-europe-and-asia/[/URL]

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2434585]Not even suggested is incorrect. It is already in process as we speak. I was referring to NYC and as of now its schools are closed. More is coming tomorrow or Tuesday. Nassau and Suffolk County as well. CT closes schools Tuesday. CA is heavily suggested by Governor, but will be mandatory soon. Its a moot point since most businesses are voluntarily closing anyway, it doesn't pay to stay open. Because you found discrepancies in one thing I mentioned quickly, you ignored ALL of the cited statements I've made over the past two days. Cool.

[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-shutdown.html[/URL]

I agree with Uthred, everyone make their own decisions. Let's end the covid discussion please.[/QUOTE]You stated NY, not NYC. Closing schools is not a lockdown, nor is closing restaurants. The situation you describe in PR is a lockdown, limited, but still a lockdown.

From the President's translation on Sunday, he announced all non citizens of Colombia are banned starting Monday. Citizens arriving will be in self quarantine for 14 days and also foreign citizens. American airlines has cancelled all flights to Colombia starting Monday.

Colombia will block entry to travelers who are not residents or citizens and will close schools and universities from Monday in a bid to control the outbreak of coronavirus, President Ivan Duque said on Sunday.

[URL]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-colombia/colombia-will-block-entry-by-all-non-residents-from-monday-to-stop-coronavirus-idUSKBN21211B[/URL]

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2434621]You stated NY, not NYC. Closing schools is not a lockdown, nor is closing restaurants. The situation you describe in PR is a lockdown, limited, but still a lockdown.[/QUOTE][URL]https://breaking911.com/breaking-new-york-city-shuts-down/[/URL]

I wonder if this policy will reduce the amount of Venezuelan pros in Colombia gradually.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2434601]"Starting Monday, Colombia will temporarily ban the entry of foreign visitors traveling from Europe and Asia, President Ivan Duque said Friday.

In response to the coronavirus pandemic, the borders with Venezuela will be closed on Saturday already, the president said.

Visitors from the Americas will still be able to enter Colombia, but be subjected to compulsory health checks and tracked. ".

[URL]https://colombiareports.com/coronavirus-colombia-to-close-borders-for-foreign-visitors-from-europe-and-asia/[/URL][/QUOTE]

This is insane.

One of two things are happening, 1) this thing is real, and a real weaponized virus has escaped the lab; or 2) this is one gigantic mind fuck to cover something else up. WTF.

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2434506]I agree with you except for the part about testing. Positive or negative result the best practice is the same and there is no treatment or cure. Avoid crowds and practice good hygiene until it's over. No visits to the estadio for me anytime soon.[/QUOTE]I phrased it that way is because Korea does not have lockdown and have a lot of testings done. Their outcome is very different from Italy. Beside stopping the transmission of virus, the lockdown is an alternative to testing because it basically waits for a person to become sick enough to determine if it is the coronavirus or flu.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2434656]This is insane.

One of two things are happening, 1) this thing is real, and a real weaponized virus has escaped the lab; or 2) this is one gigantic mind fuck to cover something else up. WTF.[/QUOTE]1. A weaponized virus with a mortality rate below 25% is a pretty crappy weapon. Especially a virus which is mostly ineffective against the age groups which make up the military. Frankly a weapon that wipes out the oldest of a population tends to make a country stronger.

2. That would be a huge mind fuck. You have to coordinate a big chunk of the Chinese population, plus almost everyone in South Korea and Italy, not to mention all the other doctors, techs, patients all around the world, bring in the CDC, WHO and equivalent agencies around the world and have zero leaks.

How about a #3?

3. It's a real disease, caused by a virus which is a hybrid of SARS and COVID-2. It's new. Nobody has natural antibodies, which makes it more severe. It has a high transmission rate. It causes pneumonia. It has a high hospitalization rate. It has a relatively high mortality rate. There's no cure and no vaccine.

No need for a conspiracy theory.

From what I've read, the 3. 5% death rate is actually like 20% for the 60+ population and like <0. 1% for 20-30 age group. Now that definitely doesn't mean, oh I'm 25, I don't care about getting it cause it's just going to be a cold for me. The problem is if you get it and then pass it onto your parents. Or if you don't visit your parents much, if you pass it onto one of your friends who then goes and sees their parents. A 1/5 chance of having one of your parents die from a cold you passed to them is no joke.

I've also read that at this point, we are way past containment and if we don't find a cure, the CV will spread to about 70% of people in the US and then go away due to herd immunization. The big reason we are doing a mass shutdown is essentially to push the infection down the road. That will 1) maybe allow us to find a cure, 2) definitely be more prepared for when the masses are infected and 3) not overload our hospitals / other resources right now and instead spread out the hospital usage across many months. I've also read that the strain of the CV going around is a much weaker form than the one that was killing people in China. This could explain the insane growth in incidence rates but not a correlated growth in the death rates. But another simple explanation could just be that governments are under reporting the deaths and keeping it under wraps. If you think there is hysteria going on now, could you imagine if the general population found out the death rate was actually 10% higher? Scary stuff right here.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2434704]If it was a weaponized virus than it would be more fatal more than 3. 5%, This particular virus probably actually came from a wild animal in China, most likely originally a bat, but then it passed to some other wild animal that they suspect was then brought to animal market. This has happened before. Some Chinese are obsessed with traditional Chinese medicine which involves a lot of wild a rare animals, so people go out and haul these animals into markets and then these animals spread viruses into the population. It has also happened in Egypt with bats and camels, bats spread the virus to camels and then the camels spread it to people[/QUOTE]I heard that the CV came from ducks. But humans are immune to bird viruses so it's actually transferred from duck poop to pigs which is then transferred to us. And the problem with China is they have one of the largest domestication of pigs which is why a ton of viruses tend to come from China.

But depending on what terrorists are trying to do, it is actually much more effective to have a weaponized virus with a low death rate. The problem with a deadly virus is that it'll kill a few people and then stop spreading because deadly viruses tend to put people into their death beds and it's really hard to infect other people when you're sick laying in bed. And then when you die, that virus dies with you. On the other hand, a weaker virus like the flu or CV, where it just gives most people a common cold will spread like wildfire. Nobody is going to self quarantine themselves because they have the sniffles or in the case of CV (you're contagious for a week before you even show symptoms). Which is where our problem lies, how can you stop the spread of a virus when you don't even know you have it till you've already passed it on to other people. Now I'm not saying the CV is a weaponized virus cause that opens a whole new can of worms but if the government wanted to do some population control, this is a pretty well made virus for that. It targets the older / sickly population who contribute less to the economy while using up the majority of medical resources and it doesn't seem to have a big effect on healthy younger people and doesn't affect kids at all.

I want to make it very clear that I'm not an expert on CV and this is all just stuff I've read / listened to. I also want to make it clear that I'm not saying this is a government conspiracy and that I'm definitely anti-CV. So please don't attack me, I'm just passing along information.

Posted in Medellin Expat group "Jet Blue just cancelled my flight to Ft Lauderdale from Medellin on Friday" Others have confirmed it is true.

Colombia is closed.

[URL]https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm[/URL]

Anyone have an educated guess on how long will this travel ban last?

[QUOTE=NormalAsianKid;2434759]I heard that the CV came from ducks. But humans are immune to bird viruses so it's actually transferred from duck poop to pigs which is then transferred to us. And the problem with China is they have one of the largest domestication of pigs which is why a ton of viruses tend to come from China.

But depending on what terrorists are trying to do, it is actually much more effective to have a weaponized virus with a low death rate.[/QUOTE]Yes but then again terrorist like to make a big noise and take credit for what they do, that's sort of the ideal of Terrorism is the group showing the world their capabilities for their "cause". Never has there been a sneaky terrorist. Outside of James Bond / Mission Impossible movies. There would be no point. Even though I think we can all agree that terrorists are just basically serial killers. The terrorist does not think so, the terrorists thinks they are a freedom fighter. So they take credit for their actions.

I had not read about the duck theory but from what the CDC says they wouldn't rule it out.

[URL]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=SJobs;2434851]Anyone have an educated guess on how long will this travel ban last?[/QUOTE]I don't think even the airlines or countries themselves know this. If cases are still rising, we can expect bans to be extended. It's a fluid situation. We don't have these kinds of answers. More cities, states and countries are implementing increasing measures almost by the hour right now, so we are still moving in the direction of more limited movement between people. We are not close to a tipping point where it will move back the other way. It's going to be months at minimum.

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2434876]I don't think even the airlines or countries themselves know this. If cases are still rising, we can expect bans to be extended. It's a fluid situation. We don't have these kinds of answers. More cities, states and countries are implementing increasing measures almost by the hour right now, so we are still moving in the direction of more limited movement between people. We are not close to a tipping point where it will move back the other way. It's going to be months at minimum.[/QUOTE]This really sucks. Man, you are very lucky that you got to enjoy Medellin right before the door is shut. I guess I will just read your trip reports and live through it vicariously.

[QUOTE=SJobs;2434851]Anyone have an educated guess on how long will this travel ban last?[/QUOTE]I won't call it an educated guess, but I'm guessing a bare minimum of 6 weeks and less than 20 weeks. It looks like, once the spread reaches critical mass, it takes about 4 weeks to run its course. At a guess, we've got 3-6 weeks before it tapers off in the US.

Will it reach a tipping point in Colombia? Remains to be seen.

[QUOTE=SJobs;2434880]This really sucks. Man, you are very lucky that you got to enjoy Medellin right before the door is shut. I guess I will just read your trip reports and live through it vicariously.[/QUOTE]This is exactly why I decided to still make the trip because I had a feeling I would be leaving just as it would be starting to really take off in the West. That timing proved to be almost exact to the day.

PR went on lockdown 1. 5 days after I landed. My petsitter cancelled on all clients immediately, no one is allowed to leave the house except for food, bank, hospital. If I didn't come back the day I did, things could have taken a real turn for the worse, ie: not being able to get a flight, standing in customs lines for 10 hours on arrival, my animals and plants being dead, not securing last minute supplies.

I got lucky in more ways than one.

I fully agree on #3 there is no need for a conspiracy theory.

Who on their right mind would want what's happening in the world, even 'iluminati' would not dare to do so.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2434714]1. A weaponized virus with a mortality rate below 25% is a pretty crappy weapon. Especially a virus which is mostly ineffective against the age groups which make up the military. Frankly a weapon that wipes out the oldest of a population tends to make a country stronger.

2. That would be a huge mind fuck. You have to coordinate a big chunk of the Chinese population, plus almost everyone in South Korea and Italy, not to mention all the other doctors, techs, patients all around the world, bring in the CDC, WHO and equivalent agencies around the world and have zero leaks.

How about a #3?

3. It's a real disease, caused by a virus which is a hybrid of SARS and COVID-2. It's new. Nobody has natural antibodies, which makes it more severe. It has a high transmission rate. It causes pneumonia. It has a high hospitalization rate. It has a relatively high mortality rate. There's no cure and no vaccine.

No need for a conspiracy theory.[/QUOTE]

The Health Minister of Colombia announced today that the travel ban will be in effect until June 1.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2434924]The Health Minister of Colombia announced today that the travel ban will be in effect until June 1.[/QUOTE]Damn that sucks, I was hoping to come back mid April, which I knew wasnt happening and figured maybe by mid May, but now that will be mid June, at the earliest, if we are all lucky. Shit, I'm going to need to find a chica with a US visa who can come here LOL.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2434924]The Health Minister of Colombia announced today that the travel ban will be in effect until June 1.[/QUOTE]My god, this is terrible. Is there any chance they will let people who tested negative to go in?

I've been doing a bit of research and the travel ban announced by Duque this evening is for all land, maritime and river crossings both in and out of Colombia, until the end of May. It does not concern air travel, which was not mentioned. So, in principal, you can still leave Colombia via Bogota airport, according to the report.

[URL]https://www.vanguardia.com/colombia/colombia-cierra-todas-sus-fronteras-terrestres-y-maritimas-NX2145816[/URL]

[QUOTE=Coupe66;2435013]I've been doing a bit of research and the travel ban announced by Duque this evening is for all land, maritime and river crossings both in and out of Colombia, until the end of May. It does not concern air travel, which was not mentioned. So, in principal, you can still leave Colombia via Bogota airport, according to the report.[/QUOTE]Anyone can leave Colombia through many airports. My neighbors left Medellin this afternoon, through the airport in Rio Negro.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435025]Anyone can leave Colombia through many airports. My neighbors left Medellin this afternoon, through the airport in Rio Negro.[/QUOTE]Great, let's hope this stays that way! I wouldn't see how blocking people leaving could help Colombia in the fight against the Corona virus!? To what countries can you fly to from Rio Negro airport, isn't it just for domestic flights?

[QUOTE=Coupe66;2435040]Great, let's hope this stays that way! I wouldn't see how blocking people leaving could help Colombia in the fight against the Corona virus!? To what countries can you fly to from Rio Negro airport, isn't it just for domestic flights?[/QUOTE]Rionegro is the international airport. The airport in Medellin is just for domestic flights.

[QUOTE=Coupe66;2435040]Great, let's hope this stays that way! I wouldn't see how blocking people leaving could help Colombia in the fight against the Corona virus!? To what countries can you fly to from Rio Negro airport, isn't it just for domestic flights?[/QUOTE]The airport in Rio Negro (Jose Maria Cordova) is the international airport that serves the Medellin area. Olaya Herrera is the small airport in Medellin.

As much as I hate that I cannot get into Colombia right now, I have to say they did the right thing. The last time I looked at Colombia (probably a few days ago) they had a total of 2 COVID-19 cases. Now they have 65. Damn that is a growth curve. I have to eat crow because I said in an earlier post that I did not think it would hit Colombia as fast as it did the US but going from 2-60 is fast. There testing capacity probably has not caught up to demand either. And some of these idiots who were carrying it into the country who do not have symptoms are probably running around La 70 and Parque Lleras as we speak not practicing social distancing. Staying 3 feet from everyone.

[QUOTE=Orgasmico;2435283]Bars and clubs are closed here. Manizales implemented a 7 pm curfew so I wouldn't be surprised if they try that here too. They are encouraging social distancing like everywhere else. During the day, is the best time for casa runs or to set things up for the night at your place. Closing the border to tourists was a good step as far as the virus. Might last until June. Who knows.[/QUOTE]The Health Ministry has already announced that the borders will be closed until June 1. Hopefully, the curve will be turned by then and the ban will not be extended.

[QUOTE=Coupe66;2435013]I've been doing a bit of research and the travel ban announced by Duque this evening is for all land, maritime and river crossings both in and out of Colombia, until the end of May. It does not concern air travel, which was not mentioned. So, in principal, you can still leave Colombia via Bogota airport, according to the report.

[URL]https://www.vanguardia.com/colombia/colombia-cierra-todas-sus-fronteras-terrestres-y-maritimas-NX2145816[/URL][/QUOTE]Wait. So we can still fly in from the USA? Does Colombia have a shelter in place quarantine? Are people still partying in Parque LLeras?

[QUOTE=LivingFossil;2435311]Wait. So we can still fly in from the USA? Does Colombia have a shelter in place quarantine? Are people still partying in Parque LLeras?[/QUOTE]You can only fly into Columbia if you are a Columbia citizen or legal resident of Colombia.

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/coronavirus-travel-bans/index.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2435278]I hope it stays that way. If Colombia doesn't implement social distancing soon they will have a massive outbreak like the one in Italy.[/QUOTE]I am curious why you think that. Have you been to Thailand or the Philippines? I picked those two countries because I have been to both. I am 99% sure there is not social distancing there. Thailand has 170 active cases and the Philippines has 181. I have no idea why there is a huge difference in the percentage of people with the virus in different countries, with some of the lowest in countries that are densely populated and lower living conditions.

In my opinion, there has been an over-reaction in many areas to the coronavirus. Since October, there have been an estimated 22,000 deaths in the US from the flu. There have been 116 deaths from the coronavirus since it was detected in the US. All restaurants haven't been ordered closed because of the flu. But, it is what it is and we all have to wait it out and hope for the best outcome.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435503]I am curious why you think that. Have you been to Thailand or the Philippines? I picked those two countries because I have been to both. I am 99% sure there is not social distancing there. Thailand has 170 active cases and the Philippines has 181. I have no idea why there is a huge difference in the percentage of people with the virus in different countries, with some of the lowest in countries that are densely populated and lower living conditions.
[/QUOTE]Those countries don't test as much. That's why you're seeing low numbers right now. The data isn't being collected. They are going to have an outbreak worse than other countries and when people start dropping the flies you'll see it in the news.

This isn't just one strain of the virus. We're going to see three or four waves over the next two years. A vaccine may help lower the spread but its highly infectious (R2. 2 which means everyone spreads it to two other people at least). Things are not going to be normal this year. Maybe sometime next year if enough herd immunity has built up. In the meantime western industrialized countries are trying to avoid a situation like the one in Italy, hence social distancing, to slow the spread.

I'm not wishing ill on any of these countries. I just wouldn't use their data to get the measure of things.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435503]
In my opinion, there has been an over-reaction in many areas to the coronavirus. Since October, there have been an estimated 22,000 deaths in the US from the flu. There have been 116 deaths from the coronavirus since it was detected in the US. All restaurants haven't been ordered closed because of the flu. But, it is what it is and we all have to wait it out and hope for the best outcome.[/QUOTE]

Please humble yourself a little and consider that your numbers are wrong wrong wrong. COVID-19 (and later COVID-20) will claim more lives unless we all start taking measures to protect ourselves and our neighbours.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2435509]Please humble yourself a little and consider that your numbers are wrong wrong wrong. COVID-19 (and later COVID-20) will claim more lives unless we all start taking measures to protect ourselves and our neighbours.[/QUOTE]Please show me where my numbers are wrong. I am glad I don't live in your world. Why not just shoot yourself before all the gloom and doom happens?

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435512]Please show me where my numbers are wrong. I am glad I don't live in your world. Why not just shoot yourself before all the gloom and doom happens?[/QUOTE][URL]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases[/URL]

As of right now the total number of deaths stand little under 8,000. It has just started to spread outside of China. I hope the death toll remains low, but this isn't promising. If left unchecked it would be MUCH higher.

EDIT: also look at the confirmed cases in the last 15 days. It accounts for HALF of all cases confirmed. The pandemic doubled in two weeks... really not a good sign.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435503]I am curious why you think that. Have you been to Thailand or the Philippines? I picked those two countries because I have been to both. I am 99% sure there is not social distancing there. Thailand has 170 active cases and the Philippines has 181. I have no idea why there is a huge difference in the percentage of people with the virus in different countries, with some of the lowest in countries that are densely populated and lower living conditions.[/QUOTE]I've never been to Thailand or the Philippines, but I have been to West Africa several times. Back in the day I was involved in a few University research trips to West Africa. Of course a regular discussion among us was the living conditions, mortality rate, disease, and immunity came up from time to time. I will never forget a microbiologist Professor stating, "In West Africa, if a child survives past the age of 5, they are basically immune to everything" he went on to explain that by that age, they have been exposed to all sorts of nasty shit, and lived. All this with no vaccinations.

I suspect that the living conditions in Thailand, Philippines, India, China, etc. Are less than ideal, but there is something to be said about being "to clean" and your immune system becoming very weak, your immune system needs to be "exercised" so to speak. If you don't use it, you lose it, is one line of thought.

[QUOTE=LivingFossil;2435311]Wait. So we can still fly in from the USA? Does Colombia have a shelter in place quarantine? Are people still partying in Parque LLeras?[/QUOTE]Assuming the airline from the US is still running flights, assuming they decide to let you waste your money and get on the plane, yes. You can fly in to Colombia.

Then, you will sit in the airport, probably in a special waiting area set aside for people not allowed in, including potentially infected people, waiting for your flight back to the US.

Just not sure why anyone would pay to do that.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435512]Please show me where my numbers are wrong. I am glad I don't live in your world. Why not just shoot yourself before all the gloom and doom happens?[/QUOTE]The estimated flu deaths, according to the CDC, are 10,000 this flu season, but let's use 22,000. That's out of 20,000,000 cases. 1 out of every 1,000 die from the flu. 1 out of every 100 require medical treatment from the flu.

Globally there have been about 200,000 coronavirus cases (known). There have been nearly 8,000 deaths.

Here's the really fun part that you should love. It's called "extrapolation."

If, instead of 200,000 cases, we reach 20 million cases, how many coronavirus deaths can we expect? (Jeopardy theme plays.).

"What is 800,000?

"That is correct. How much did you wager".

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2435513][URL]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases[/URL]

As of right now the total number of deaths stand little under 8,000. ... [/QUOTE]I clearly stated stats from the US. I am still waiting for you to show me where my numbers are "wrong, wrong wrong".

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435525]... I will never forget a microbiologist Professor stating, "In West Africa, if a child survives past the age of 5, they are basically immune to everything" he went on to explain that by that age, they have been exposed to all sorts of nasty shit, and lived. All this with no vaccinations.

I suspect that the living conditions in Thailand, Philippines, India, China, etc. Are less than ideal, but there is something to be said about being "to clean" and your immune system becoming very weak, your immune system needs to be "exercised" so to speak. If you don't use it, you lose it, is one line of thought.[/QUOTE]I think you are probably correct. I know suicides have an impact, but there are other reasons for the life expectancy starting to decrease in the US. Eating some dirt growing up was not all bad.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435586]I clearly stated stats from the US. I am still waiting for you to show me where my numbers are "wrong, wrong wrong".[/QUOTE]I'll try this one last time. You claim COVID-19 will kill less than the seasonal flu. I showed you numbers and explained to you that its only beginning to spread. It has ravaged China and left thousands dead. Its now stalking across the globe. Many more will die (than the flu) if we don't hunker down.

The Spanish flu wasn't just 1918, it was also spreading in 1919 and 1920. It killed anywhere from 50 million to 100 million people.

I'm not going to argue the point anymore. If your head is so far up your ass you think everyone is overreacting then I'd suggest buying a tin foil hat and joining a flat earth society.

EDIT:

In this article an expert tells you why you have your head up your ass: https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/covid-19-has-the-potential-to-become-as-severe-as-the-spanish-flu/

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435586]I clearly stated stats from the US. I am still waiting for you to show me where my numbers are "wrong, wrong wrong".[/QUOTE][B]Fun Luvr on ISG says "world overreacting"
World leaders lift all restrictions
Dow surges
Medical experts baffled
Fun Luvr receives Presidential Medal of Freedom, Nobel Prize for Medicine and blowjob from Ivanka Trump[/B]

An infectious disease expert at John Hopkins, who asked to remain anonymous, said "frankly we're all embarrassed. We've spent weeks looking at all the data and it turns out a guy, whose hobby is fucking prostitutes, had the answers all along."

Don't worry. Later tonight I'll give you an opportunity to bust my balls.

It doesn't matter whether the world is overreacting. That train has already left the station. None of this is going to stop on a dime. We're in this for probably a minimum of 2 months and all your comparisons to the flu won't change a thing.

Why waste time on "it's all blown out of proportion?" That won't put toilet paper on the roll. The best you can hope for is being able to tell everyone "I told you so" in a few months.

Time is better spent figuring out what you need to do to get through this. Just a few weeks ago I wrote about the weakness of the US supply chain. Yes. I'm a fucking prophet. Shortages are already an issue. Don't expect it to get better.

What are your vulnerabilities? What types of sanctions will have the greatest affect on you? How is your cash supply? How is your food supply? Do you know any Mormons you can move in with?

I sincerely hope you're 100% correct, but it still doesn't change the issues we are facing.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2435599]I'll try this one last time. You claim COVID-19 will kill less than the seasonal flu. .../[/QUOTE]You obviously have a reading comprehension problem. I never projected anything in the future. I only stated what has already happened. No matter how you twist my words, you will not find anywhere that I said the coronavirus WILL kill less than the flu. I learned the difference between "has' and "will" in elementary school. Obviously you have never learned the difference.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435525]. I will never forget a microbiologist Professor stating, "In West Africa, if a child survives past the age of 5, they are basically immune to everything" he went on to explain that by that age, they have been exposed to all sorts of nasty shit, and lived. All this with no vaccinations..[/QUOTE]Sounds like this microbiologists might have been prone to a little exaggeration "immune to everything"? First of all immunity is specific. It is not a muscle you exercise and it gets stronger. Immunity is very complex process that involves a range of defences within he body and it is often specific to the disease that one encounters which is why the seasonal flu kills less than. 01% because we have been passing that little ***** back and forth for hundreds of years and redeveloping our own immunity every time we encounter it - and yet it keeps morphing into something slightly different and coming back every year.

In immunology viruses are the devil because unlike say bacterial infection where the bacteria are a living organism inside our body. The virus is the devil and takes possession of the cells soul (figuratively speaking) by changing the RNA sequence and causing the cell to misbehave.

So while I believe that these people in West Africa maybe developing specific immunities to many things that exist in their environment. When something new comes along that immunity is not necessarily helpful. Viruses are the devil. So for example when this microbiologist chose to be use such hyperbole when he said they are immune to everything. I would have ask him why so many have died from AIDS related illness, brought on by infections of the HIV - a virus

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2435635][B]Fun Luvr on ISG says "world overreacting"
World leaders lift all restrictions
Dow surges
Medical experts baffled
Fun Luvr receives Presidential Medal of Freedom, Nobel Prize for Medicine and blowjob from Ivanka Trump[/B][/QUOTE]You must be Adam Schiff in disguise, and have the same level of education as Yippiekayay. Please show me where I wrote that the world is overreacting. You can't, because I did not write that. Making untruthful statements in bold letters does not make them true.

Maybe you should read this from the CDC website, if you think you can understand it. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435641]You obviously have a reading comprehension problem. I never projected anything in the future. I only stated what has already happened. No matter how you twist my words, you will not find anywhere that I said the coronavirus WILL kill less than the flu. I learned the difference between "has' and "will" in elementary school. Obviously you have never learned the difference.[/QUOTE]Nope:

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435503]
In my opinion, there has been an over-reaction in many areas to the coronavirus. Since October, there have been an estimated 22,000 deaths in the US from the flu. There have been 116 deaths from the coronavirus since it was detected in the US. All restaurants haven't been ordered closed because of the flu. But, it is what it is and we all have to wait it out and hope for the best outcome.[/QUOTE]What you don't understand is the death rate in Italy as of today is over 8%. They are at almost 500 a day now. This isn't the flu. Stop saying and I quote you again: "there has been an over-reaction" THERE HASN'T.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2435647]What you don't understand is the death rate in Italy as of today is over 8%. They are at almost 500 a day now. This isn't the flu. Stop saying and I quote you again: "there has been an over-reaction" THERE HASN'T.[/QUOTE]If you are going to quote me, why don't you quote the complete statement: "In my opinion, there has been an over-reaction in many areas to the coronavirus. " My posts concerning this subject have all been about the US, except mentioning the disparity of cases in Thailand and the Philippines compared to some other countries.

Some basic stats.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435503]
In my opinion, there has been an over-reaction in many areas to the coronavirus. Since October, there have been an estimated 22,000 deaths in the US from the flu. There have been 116 deaths from the coronavirus since it was detected in the US. All restaurants haven't been ordered closed because of the flu. But, it is what it is and we all have to wait it out and hope for the best outcome.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2435647]Nope:

What you don't understand is the death rate in Italy as of today is over 8%. They are at almost 500 a day now. This isn't the flu. Stop saying and I quote you again: "there has been an over-reaction" THERE HASN'T.[/QUOTE]Maybe what Fun Luvr fails to understand is that it has yet to actually hit the USA yet, its like there is a flooding torrential rainstorm in Italy and houses are underwater, the storm is moving in our direction. There is no stopping this storm from reaching us. But so far it is only sprinkling rain and Fun Luvr sees the sprinkling and does not understand why we are stacking up sandbags and digging trenches and building dams etc -.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435651]If you are going to quote me, why don't you quote the complete statement: "In my opinion, there has been an over-reaction in many areas to the coronavirus. " My posts concerning this subject have all been about the US, except mentioning the disparity of cases in Thailand and the Philippines compared to some other countries.[/QUOTE]There's a theory that the virus does not survive well in warmer clients, hence the reduced infection rate in the Thailand and the Philippines. If this is true, hopefully Colombia will not be as badly affected.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2435644]

In immunology viruses are the devil because unlike say bacterial infection where the bacteria are a living organism inside our body. The virus is the devil and takes possession of the cells soul (figuratively speaking) by changing the RNA sequence and causing the cell to misbehave.
[/QUOTE]Coronavirus deaths of West Africans - 0.

Coronavirus deaths of tourist in West Africa - 1 dead Italian.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435694]Coronavirus deaths of West Africans - 0.

Coronavirus deaths of tourist in West Africa - 1 dead Italian.[/QUOTE]You're reading bad data. Most of these countries are not admitting they have a problem.

Sadly the same thing happened in 1919. Philadelphia had 500,000 deaths, and people had to live with the dead for weeks because there was no place to bury or cremate them. The media kept telling people everything was fine. BTW, I'd love to be wrong but I reckon a lot of the naysayers are going to find out what the next three years are like the hard way.

Ball Park figures. Nobody can prove 100%.

10,000 people dead from Coronavirus.

500,000 flu deaths 2019.

600,000 slip and fall deaths 2019.

1,250,000 car crash deaths (3000+ per day) 2019.

All those car deaths and most people I know speed. Funny to think about really. But nobody thinks twice about jumping in their vehicles. Vroom vroom start your engines!

Remember AIDS had headlines on everything for years 30 years ago. Half the population was going to die, or at least half of Africa. Neither happened. Many guys then and since then have had unprotected sex. USA wanting to save the world gave money to countries. The countries learned if they say they had little AIDS they received little money. So if the countries said they had a lot of AIDS they received a lot of money.

Remember ZIKA 3 years ago? Have not heard a peep in 2.5 years.

How about the new study every 10 years. Eggs are good for you. Eggs are bad for you. Been hearing that change every 10 years like clockwork for the last 40 years. Same about wine and coffee. Nobody I know quit eating eggs or drinking wine and coffee.

Cell phones will give you cancer because the radiation from it. They fail to inform you that you get a 1000 times that amount of radiation just walking down the street for a few hours to equate to a lifetime or more of that cell phone next to your head. Everyone has cell phones and is reading my little story on a cancer causing cell phone or computer device. You do not seem worried about this.

Did you know there was a study on carrots? There is a deadly toxin in carrot that can kill. They forgot to mention that you would have eat a truck load of carrots in a weeks time in order to build up the amount of toxin required to kill you. It is impossible to do it even if you tried. So why even mention such a stupid study?

Put things in a little perspective. You are welcome!

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2435701]You're reading bad data. Most of these countries are not admitting they have a problem.

Sadly the same thing happened in 1919. Philadelphia had 500,000 deaths, and people had to live with the dead for weeks because there was no place to bury or cremate them. The media kept telling people everything was fine. BTW, I'd love to be wrong but I reckon a lot of the naysayers are going to find out what the next three years are like the hard way.[/QUOTE]Bad data?

"1919. Philadelphia had 500,000 deaths, and people had to live with the dead for weeks because there was no place to bury or cremate them. ".

What is the source?

Try sucking some helium so you can lighten the fuck up.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435645]You must be Adam Schiff in disguise, and have the same level of education as Yippiekayay. Please show me where I wrote that the world is overreacting. You can't, because I did not write that. Making untruthful statements in bold letters does not make them true.[/QUOTE]I do so love a challenge. Yippiekayay probably has more education than me. I'm just a poor, dumb, uneducated truck driver.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435503][B]In my opinion, there has been an over-reaction in many areas to the coronavirus.[/B] Since October, there have been an estimated 22,000 deaths in the US from the flu. There have been 116 deaths from the coronavirus since it was detected in the US. All restaurants haven't been ordered closed because of the flu. But, it is what it is and we all have to wait it out and hope for the best outcome.[/QUOTE]I put it in bold letters for you. For the record, the only part you quoted was sarcasm. I thought the "blowjob from Ivanka Trump" line would have clued you in to that.

[QUOTE]Maybe you should read this from the CDC website, if you think you can understand it. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm[/QUOTE]I'm pretty sure I've already read it. I'll verify later on. Maybe you should read the part of my post that you decided not to quote (if you think you can understand it). I'll paraphrase (golly gee that's a big word for some dumb redneck like me) it for you.

How bad the flu is, how bad coronavirus is. Neither one matters. Borders are closed, restaurants are closed, factories are closing, the entire world is shutting down. If not one more person dies from COVID-19 infection, it won't change that. Next week everything will still be shutdown. The week after everything will still be shutdown. There are millions of people who are going to be getting desperate real soon. That's what you should be thinking about.

You can argue about the flu all you want. Nothing changes. If you want, you can talk about tuberculosis. That seems to be the current favorite when I try to teach people who want to babble incoherently (holy cow! That word's longer than pa's trips to the outhouse) about the flu, simple math. Still doesn't change what is.

By the way, instead of jumping straight to the ad hominem attacks, why not dig into the actual content of the posts? We can sit around and call each other names all day if you want, but it will just make you look bad. I've got much more experience.

Now if why'all will excuse me, got to milk the hogs, slop the chickens and gather the eggs from the cows.

If you make enough correct predictions some people will call you a prophet. If your predictions all miss some will call you a fool. I'm definitely not a prophet and I'm most likely a fool, but I'm willing to put it to the test.

Following are my predictions for April 1, 2020. In 2 weeks you can pull up this post and tell me how big a fool you think I am. I recommend patience. If you spend the next few days telling me how wrong I am, and I'm even close to being right, I'm going to rub your nose in it.

To make it easy to find this post again, just search for jjthefool or jjtheprophet and it should pop right up. Here goes.

Worldwide coronavirus cases - 1,000,000+.

Worldwide coronavirus deaths - 20,000+.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - <17,000.

USD to COP - 4,600 per dollar.

USD to CAD - $1. 60 CAD to USD.

Bitcoin - $4800 per Bitcoin.

For comparison, here are current numbers as of 3:36 am Eastern Time:

Cases - 218,000.

Deaths - 8,700.

DJIA - 19,898.92.

USD to COP - 4158.

USD to CAD - 1.46.

Bitcoin - $5444.67.

I included Canadian dollars because I'm in Canada 2 days a week and there's a possibility I'll get stuck there if the border is closed completely. I included Bitcoin because it's something I'm tracking trying to get a better understanding of how the world economy is reacting.

Watch and wait and start preparing your worst insults.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435694]Coronavirus deaths of West Africans - 0.

Coronavirus deaths of tourist in West Africa - 1 dead Italian.[/QUOTE]The whole of West Africa has what like 50 confirmed and reported cases. That is not statistically significant enough to start making some blanket judgement about immunity. Alabama has about the same number of cases and has not had any deaths either.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435694]Coronavirus deaths of West Africans - 0.

Coronavirus deaths of tourist in West Africa - 1 dead Italian.[/QUOTE]Kevin Durant has tested positive for the Corona Virus. If I get where you are trying to go.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435709]Bad data?

"1919. Philadelphia had 500,000 deaths, and people had to live with the dead for weeks because there was no place to bury or cremate them. ".

What is the source?[/QUOTE]I don't have a primary source and my number is wrong. Out of 500,000 cases in Philadelphia 12,000 died in six months.

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/us/philadelphia-1918-spanish-flu-trnd/index.html[/URL]

"In the US, about 675,000 people died of the 22 million who caught the flu. ". My number is closer to the one for the entire US. That's still very significant to have.

Yes, bad data from West Africa. I suspect a lot of countries are not testing enough so we don't know the number of actual cases. We're going to find out soon though. The virus takes up to two weeks to start showing symptoms. A new infection in a country can turn from mild to catastrophic in six weeks time. Look at Italy.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2435647]Nope:

What you don't understand is the death rate in Italy as of today is over 8%. They are at almost 500 a day now. This isn't the flu. Stop saying and I quote you again: "there has been an over-reaction" THERE HASN'T.[/QUOTE]Please. Have a read.

[URL]https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says?__twitter_impression=true[/URL]

[QUOTE=Goatscrot;2435815]Please. Have a read.

[URL]https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says?__twitter_impression=true[/URL][/QUOTE]Right. Everyone is wrong except you. It's not that serious.

Carry on.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2435671]Maybe what Fun Luvr fails to understand is that it has yet to actually hit the USA yet, its like there is a flooding torrential rainstorm in Italy and houses are underwater, the storm is moving in our direction. There is no stopping this storm from reaching us. But so far it is only sprinkling rain and Fun Luvr sees the sprinkling and does not understand why we are stacking up sandbags and digging trenches and building dams etc -.[/QUOTE]Has it hit China yet? Their reported death toll is 15% of the estimated deaths in the US from the flu since October 2019. Neither you nor I know what the future holds. I don't think you and Yippiekayay have any scientific data to substantiate your dire predictions. Only the future will tell us if you are right or wrong. I prefer to be optimistic instead of an alarmist.

Before someone says the coronavirus is not the flu, I am not making a medical comparison. They are both medical conditions and are spread in almost the same manner. That is the reason I am making a numerical comparison.

I don't know if this the right section to post this, interesting that this a new thread for sure, and the guys on the Medellin thread are going at it over how Gustos's sucks which is totally nuts, who could give a shit, great place for some, nothing for others.

Anyways I have been back three days now in Southern California since getting out of the Colombia last Sunday, and now I have heard that Colombia has effectively shut down all flights in and out of the Country so I guess I am very lucky to have gotten out, or maybe not.

I have spent the last three days stocking up on supplies and with the projected 18 month Pandemic prediction yesterday, and the surges in cases, I am worried. I may even be infected for all I know as my son being in his twenty's arrived last Saturday to stay in my home and may be a virus carrier with no symptoms.

I have yet to see a single roll of toilet paper in hitting 5 stores a day at multiple hours. I could not find any flour for baking until I went to the most expensive market in town. I finally got some pasta products after being the first one after waiting in line for an hour at a Trader Joe's.

Fresh products are very scarce, you have to either know the delivery schedules or just be in the right place at the right time to find stuff.

It amazes me what people are buying in the markets. Lots of people are just buying fresh stuff. The smart ones are buying dry and canned products for the long haul.

And literally nobody is wearing a mask, and when I do people stay clear of me thinking I'm sick. If I was in Asian City not wearing a mask, they would think I am sick for sure.

The news is worse and worse everyday, and with all the isolation orders and shut downs I wonder how long it's going to be when the people working in the markets and pharmacies are going to quit coming to work, let alone have money to pay the rent and utilities.

I went to Home Depot yesterday, interesting in that they had a two limit per item quota like all the stores in town on cleaning products like bleach containing products and I lucked out as none of the other supermarkets had them.

I also, after noticing a very scarce amount of fruits and vegetables in the Supermarkets, bought several live plants and seeds in the nursery. I have a sizable backyard so will be growing all kinds of stuff.

Maybe I sound crazy, and perhaps have a green thumb.

I am curious as to what others are experiencing in the USA and in Colombia in regards to the virus.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435825]Has it hit China yet? Their reported death toll is 15% of the estimated deaths in the US from the flu since October 2019. Neither you nor I know what the future holds. I don't think you and Yippiekayay have any scientific data to substantiate your dire predictions. Only the future will tell us if you are right or wrong. I prefer to be optimistic instead of an alarmist.

Before someone says the coronavirus is not the flu, I am not making a medical comparison. They are both medical conditions and are spread in almost the same manner. That is the reason I am making a numerical comparison.[/QUOTE]Are you comparing total number of deaths or death rate? Most deaths in China are in one region.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435825]I prefer to be optimistic instead of an alarmist.
[/QUOTE]

I think not many people will disagree with you. I also think may will agree with this more: "Expect the best, plan for the worst, and prepare to be surprised".

Chloroquine 100% effective against coronavirus. Probably can buy it OTC in Colombia. Pandemic is over. I still have some from my Africa days.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eInV44ujWDM[/URL]

[QUOTE=Nounce;2435834] "Expect the best, plan for the worst, and prepare to be surprised".[/QUOTE]Couldn't have said it better. I'm done posting on this. I've spent hours on this forum posting studies, published medical journal articles, CDC and WHO data. Some people don't want to hear it. It is what it is. Each person can make up their own mind.

In line with the statement above, you have nothing to lose to be prepared and limit social interaction, the worst downside is mild inconvenience. The downside to ignoring the entire international medical community is you could die, or you could infect other people who could die. It baffles me that this is even a debate.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435840]Chloroquine 100% effective against coronavirus. Probably can buy it OTC in Colombia. Pandemic is over. I still have some from my Africa days.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eInV44ujWDM[/URL][/QUOTE]Wow, that's hilarious. I used to party HARD in college with Greg. We didn't stay in touch after college but that guy was a fucking party animal. Fucking wild to see him here on this video.

FDA approved.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1MyHPmSPdg[/URL]

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435850]FDA approved.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1MyHPmSPdg[/URL][/QUOTE]WHO has been testing this and three other drugs since Wednesday.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435825]Has it hit China yet? Their reported death toll is 15% of the estimated deaths in the US from the flu since October 2019. Neither you nor I know what the future holds. I don't think you and Yippiekayay have any scientific data to substantiate your dire predictions. Only the future will tell us if you are right or wrong. I prefer to be optimistic instead of an alarmist.

Before someone says the coronavirus is not the flu, I am not making a medical comparison. They are both medical conditions and are spread in almost the same manner. That is the reason I am making a numerical comparison.[/QUOTE]But you can't make a direct numerical comparison. That makes less sense than somebody bragging about paying $300 for a girl from Gusto, because in the US that girl would cost $400.

Here's a numerical comparison for you. We'll start with the flu. It kills, worldwide about 500,000 per year. Our second disease only kills, on average, 7 people per year. Using a numerical comparison it's much better to get the second disease.

There have only been 450 known cases of primary amoebic meningoencephalitis over the past 60 years, 443 have died from it, an average of 7. 38 per year.

The point is, the numerical comparison is useless. Assuming the transmission rates are similar, the important number is the mortality rate.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2435827]I don't know if this the right section to post this, interesting that this a new thread for sure, and the guys on the Medellin thread are going at it over how Gustos's sucks which is totally nuts, who could give a shit, great place for some, nothing for others.

Anyways I have been back three days now in Southern California since getting out of the Colombia last Sunday, and now I have heard that Colombia has effectively shut down all flights in and out of the Country so I guess I am very lucky to have gotten out, or maybe not.

I have spent the last three days stocking up on supplies and with the projected 18 month Pandemic prediction yesterday, and the surges in cases, I am worried. I may even be infected for all I know as my son being in his twenty's arrived last Saturday to stay in my home and may be a virus carrier with no symptoms.

I have yet to see a single roll of toilet paper in hitting 5 stores a day at multiple hours. I could not find any flour for baking until I went to the most expensive market in town. I finally got some pasta products after being the first one after waiting in line for an hour at a Trader Joe's.[/QUOTE]I'm mostly immune from the insanity. I'm home 38 hours per week. There's not much food in the house, but the local restaurants are still open for carryout. At home there aren't many grocery options and they are experiencing shortages.

At work I have every shopping option. Visited Trader Joe's today and they were well stocked, busy, but no lines. The only thing I saw they were out of was their Lemon Ginger Echinacea fruit drink. However, their stock was low lady week, so they may just be waiting for the next delivery.

Also stopped by a Meijer store. It's a Midwest Walmart competitor. Didn't look very busy. I was just there to use the ATM, so no idea on how well stocked. If I really need something there's a Mexican supermarket that's not busy at all.

Traffic is lighter than usual, although it's not a huge dropoff. Lots of places are closed. Restaurants with drive-thrus are keeping busy.

Things are about the same in Ontario. A bit less traffic.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435840]Chloroquine 100% effective against coronavirus. Probably can buy it OTC in Colombia. Pandemic is over. I still have some from my Africa days.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eInV44ujWDM[/URL][/QUOTE]Please only post responsible reports. Not more hyperbole. The guy in the video is misrepresenting facts. He said it was a peer reviewed study when it has actually not been accepted for peer review yet. It is a study that only included 20 people actually receiving the treatment the another 16 being the control group. until more studies are done on this lets not call it Panacea. The guy in the video is saying that it is "curing"the disease when in fact it is just reducing the viral load. Not the same as "killing" the virus nor eliminating it, and the patients in the study were given other drugs to treat their symptoms.

I know people that do this for a living at big pharm (they work on anti virals) and I talked to them and they said that study looks promising but it is way too small to have clear answers. A little early to be saying " Pandemic is over".

[URL]https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/19/trump-calls-anti-malarial-drug-game-changer-coronavirus-fda-says-it-needs-study/[/URL]

I like that this is an inexpensive drug. I also took this drug when I went to Africa.

The State Department on Thursday issued an extraordinary advisory urging Americans not to travel overseas, to return to the United States if they can, or to otherwise shelter in place.

[URL]https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/19/coronavirus-travel-advisory-level-four-137227[/URL]

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2435890]Please only post responsible reports. Not more hyperbole. The guy in the video is misrepresenting facts. He said it was a peer reviewed study when it has actually not been accepted for peer review yet.

I like that this is an inexpensive drug. I also took this drug when I went to Africa.[/QUOTE]Dude, Chloroquine has been peer reviewed over and over as effective against the coronavirus. NEWS FLASH - "coronavirus" has been around for a long, LONG time, same virus that causes the common cold. Nothing new here.

[URL]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/[/URL]

Duque suspends entry of travelers to the country for 30 days, including Colombians.

[URL]https://www.lafm.com.co/colombia/duque-suspende-ingreso-de-viajeros-al-pais-durante-30-dias-incluidos-colombianos?fbclid=IwAR0gbKh5aseLezQoDiHGd7Ro3oTroJ-SSaqApNLQ_XIdhB9jauuAZ8UEmi8[/URL]

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435901]Dude, Chloroquine has been peer reviewed over and over as effective against the coronavirus. NEWS FLASH - "coronavirus" has been around for a long, LONG time, same virus that causes the common cold. Nothing new here.

[URL]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/[/URL][/QUOTE]Jesus H man. I do not want to be in a pissing contest with you but there is more than one "coronavirus". The specific one we are dealing with is called COVID-19 - the article you are referencing here is about SARS-CoV. I said that the guy in the video said that study was peer reviewed and it was not. Not because it was a bad study but there just has not been time for it to be reviewed.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2435902]Duque suspends entry of travelers to the country for 30 days, including Colombians.

[URL]https://www.lafm.com.co/colombia/duque-suspende-ingreso-de-viajeros-al-pais-durante-30-dias-incluidos-colombianos?fbclid=IwAR0gbKh5aseLezQoDiHGd7Ro3oTroJ-SSaqApNLQ_XIdhB9jauuAZ8UEmi8[/URL][/QUOTE]Totally smart move on his part, maybe I should of stayed instead of leaving. Besides the bitching about Gusto's on the Medellin thread, it sounds like a field day for those either stuck in Medellin or there by choice, hopefully this measure, and others taken by the Colombian Government will help it to avoid the holocausts that have, and / or going to occur in other Countries, including the USA in various parts.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435901]Dude, Chloroquine has been peer reviewed over and over as effective against the coronavirus. NEWS FLASH - "coronavirus" has been around for a long, LONG time, same virus that causes the common cold. Nothing new here.

[URL]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/[/URL][/QUOTE]I'm curious. Do you know what a peer reviewed study is?

COVID-19 hasn't been around a long time. It was first identified in December. The other severe, human transmittable strains of coronavirus, MERS and SARS, have only been around since 2012 and 2002. The other, milder strains have been around longer, and identified as human pathogens for 60 years.

In 2009 a peer reviewed study showed that chloroquine was effective at reducing the viral load of coronavirus in mice. It used the strain of coronavirus which is responsible for 10-30% of common colds.

Chloroquine is currently being studied to determine effectiveness against the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus. Results are promising. There will first be further trials before it's approved.

This is not a cure. It's not a vaccine. It has the potential to reduce the amount of virus in the body, in order to allow a person to recover. In other words, it may be (probably) useful to keep people with severe cases from dying.

It doesn't mean the pandemic is over. I doesn't mean everything pops right back to normal. It means we should soon be able to keep more patients alive. Certainly that's good news.

What you've failed to consider is that it will not prevent the spread of disease. It won't reduce the number of hospitalizations for the disease. It just means less people who go to the hospital will leave in body bags.

Here's the article on the 2009 study:

[URL]https://aac.asm.org/content/53/8/3416[/URL]

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2435903]Jesus H man. I do not want to be in a pissing contest with you but there is more than one "coronavirus". The specific one we are dealing with is called COVID-19 - the article you are referencing here is about SARS-CoV. I said that the guy in the video said that study was peer reviewed and it was not. Not because it was a bad study but there just has not been time for it to be reviewed.[/QUOTE]That's exactly why I posted that link, to point out that the coronavirus has been around for a long time, and the fact that Chloroquine is very effective against the coronavirus historically, and by all indications, is very effective against coronavirus in its current form. Okay, I'll give it to you, in this latest trials, there hasn't been enough time for peer reviews, I'm down with that. That's true. You got me. But to say I'm posing hyperbole and being irresponsible is just bullshit.

How many strains of coronavirus currently known? According to the CDC, there is 7 strains that human can contract. [URL]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html[/URL].

When was coronavirus detected? 1960's.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2435903]Jesus H man. I do not want to be in a pissing contest with you but there is more than one "coronavirus". The specific one we are dealing with is called COVID-19 - the article you are referencing here is about SARS-CoV. I said that the guy in the video said that study was peer reviewed and it was not. Not because it was a bad study but there just has not been time for it to be reviewed.[/QUOTE]SARS-CoV-2 is the virus. COVID-19 is the disease it causes.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2435915]SARS-CoV-2 is the virus. COVID-19 is the disease it causes.[/QUOTE]I stand corrected on that the current virus being called Sars-Cov-2 but the one that the paper he posted mentioned was SARS-Cov.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435840]Chloroquine 100% effective against coronavirus. Probably can buy it OTC in Colombia. Pandemic is over. I still have some from my Africa days.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eInV44ujWDM[/URL][/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=TyDown;2435914]That's exactly why I posted that link, to point out that the coronavirus has been around for a long time, and the fact that Chloroquine is very effective against the coronavirus historically, and by all indications, is very effective against coronavirus in its current form. Okay, I'll give it to you, in this latest trials, there hasn't been enough time for peer reviews, I'm down with that. That's true. You got me. But to say I'm posing hyperbole and being irresponsible is just bullshit.

How many strains of coronavirus currently known? According to the CDC, there is 7 strains that human can contract. [URL]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html[/URL].

When was coronavirus detected? 1960's.[/QUOTE]"Pandemic is over" were your words. That is hyperbole and if it gives anyone who reads it enough incentive to stop taking precautions than I would consider it irresponsible. 90% of what you post is useful as hell information. Seriously.

I'm not trying to be a dick, look at it this way, as the moderator of this thread I have a "delete post" option at the bottom of each post. Would only use that if someone was out of control attacking someone or broke forum rules etc.

But also I am quarantined for 14 days and I need intelligent people to argue with LOL. I have already learned a little today but would not have if I had not challenged you a little to go dig up more information. That last URL you posted from the CDC. Swear to god I had that page pulled up from a search and was about to post the link when you posted LOL.

"If you choose to travel internationally, your travel plans may be severely disrupted, and you may be forced to remain outside of the United States for an indefinite timeframe. ".

[URL]https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/ea/travel-advisory-alert-global-level-4-health-advisory-issue.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=Nounce;2435834]Are you comparing total number of deaths or death rate? Most deaths in China are in one region.[/QUOTE]I am comparing total deaths because we don't really know the death rate. Unless everyone was tested, we would not know the number of cases. So the death rate we are seeing is pretty much useless. For the coronavirus, it is now at about 1.5% in the US, and earlier reports showed it at 3.4%.

I don't know the relevance of most deaths in China are in one region. A majority of the deaths in the US are in two states.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435973]So the death rate we are seeing is pretty much useless.[/QUOTE]No its not useless. Its an actual count of people who died. Do you see how that is different than confirmed cases?

They had to get a the military to help bury the bodies in Italy. That's how serious this pandemic is.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2435920]

But also I am quarantined for 14 days and I need intelligent people to argue with LOL. I have already learned a little today but would not have if I had not challenged you a little to go dig up more information. That last URL you posted from the CDC. Swear to god I had that page pulled up from a search and was about to post the link when you posted LOL.[/QUOTE]Thanks for creating this thread, lots of good info here. If our paths ever cross, the beer is on me! Cheers.

You guys in Medellin now reporting things as basically normal. Best of luck. You may be there for the duration. And all of us hope it doesn't get as bad there as in Europe. And Europe is not showing any signs of slowing down. Italy now has had more deaths than China, and it is growing in an exponential manner.

It probably is there now, and when that becomes evident all hell will break loose. I can't even imagine how the city would function without transit, metro, etc. And, like other places everything in casas etc. Will be shut down. It's not like the authorities don't know they are there. They are the customers after all.

And great medical care. Sure, for the first few patients that need respirators. Then. Good luck if you get serious. But that's true everywhere. USA included.

So as long as you don't have to touch anything, or get closer than a couple of yards. Have fun.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2435989]You guys in Medellin now reporting things as basically normal. Best of luck. You may be there for the duration. And all of us hope it doesn't get as bad there as in Europe. And Europe is not showing any signs of slowing down. Italy now has had more deaths than China, and it is growing in an exponential manner.

It probably is there now, and when that becomes evident all hell will break loose. I can't even imagine how the city would function without transit, metro, etc. And, like other places everything in casas etc. Will be shut down. It's not like the authorities don't know they are there. They are the customers after all.

And great medical care. Sure, for the first few patients that need respirators. Then. Good luck if you get serious. But that's true everywhere. USA included.

So as long as you don't have to touch anything, or get closer than a couple of yards. Have fun.[/QUOTE]I left Colombia last Sunday for California in fear of what might happen in Colombia if it goes the way of Europe and Colombia's limited resources to deal with it.

And the Governor of California comes out on Thursday afternoon and say's that upwards of over 50% of the population could become infected in the next eight weeks or over 20,000,000 people and orders everyone to stay home except markets, pharmacies, and other businesses.

I hope Colombia is spared of what could be a holocaust in California.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2435827]I also, after noticing a very scarce amount of fruits and vegetables in the Supermarkets, bought several live plants and seeds in the nursery. I have a sizable backyard so will be growing all kinds of stuff.

Maybe I sound crazy, and perhaps have a green thumb[/QUOTE]We think alike. I bought several large bags of potting soil.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2435977]No its not useless. Its an actual count of people who died. Do you see how that is different than confirmed cases?

They had to get a the military to help bury the bodies in Italy. That's how serious this pandemic is.[/QUOTE]Seriously, is English your primary language? Because you are having a difficult time understanding some simple English. The death rate is not a count of anything, it is a percentage. Do you believe the confirmed count is an accurate count of everyone who has contracted the virus? If you can agree that there are people with the virus who have not been counted, then the death rate is not accurate. An inaccurate number used to determine a rate renders the rate inaccurate, which is useless.

Ah, it was going so great, but now there is quarantine in Medellin. Rappi still works and delivers anything, but chicas 😭.

[URL]https://medellinguru.com/medellin-quarantine/[/URL]

My gal made it to Mexico! Stunningly, she breezed through Mexican customs. She flew Copa from Medellin to Panama City and then to Guadalajara, Mexico. It was a marked change from how rough customs is in Mexico City where anyone from Venezuela and Colombia is roughly detained. It was even better than Cancun. The customs in Colombia harassed her about traveling, but Mexico was cool which shocked me. If you are thinking of brining in Colombian women to Mexico, I was told to go through Panama City, and the amount of money the women should have on them is $400 to $500. Of course, that they shouldn't be dressed like a **** and have a clear reason for coming. If the ticket prices stay this low, it would be a great middle ground for Americans and Colombians. In addition, Puerto Vallarta is a 4 hour drive or cheap flight from here for the beach lovers.

I am not seeing the hysteria here in Mexico with regards to the coronavirus here still. Only thing I would say is that the restaurants are not as full as they would seem to have been. From my point of view, the restaurants are often open air and nearly empty. Grocery stores still have water and toilet paper.

It is interesting to me how the alternative media has become much better IMO than the mainstream. I probably got more information from this podcast: [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw[/URL].

Than anywhere else.

The transcript is here: [URL]https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/joe-rogan-michael-osterholm-podcast-transcript-infectious-disease-expert-talks-coronavirus[/URL].

For the longest time in the stock market, I have bet against the doom and gloom Malthusian models. The mathematical certainty that we are going to run out of food back when Malthus predicted it or just recently peak oil. The doom and gloom predictions are always more popular than their cornucopian adversaries, but I cannot recall the Malthusians ever being right about anything.

There is a common line in market lingo "Number don't lie, but people do. " My corollary to that learned the hard way is, "and people lie about numbers. " So you have the number of tests done and the positive ones. That is an objective number, a good number, however I am not sure how many false positives and negatives there are. When it comes to deaths and death rate percentage, those numbers, and it is really important to remember this, are opinions and death rates sadly are so often manipulated for political purposes.

And it is important to remember cause of death is a government constructed number. I don't like the fact that a noncompliant diabetic hypertensive may get the virus and die, and the virus be listed as the sole cause of death. To me, it is like you have to achieve a score of 100 to die and maybe the virus adds a number to it 10,20, 30 whatever. That number may be based on how hearty your immune system is and how well you take care of yourself. The point is that if you are 80 already in health, and the virus adds 20 you die. If you are only at 20, then you don't die from it. I am not saying that I can come up with a better system of counting, but just understand that all these predictions are based on opinions of death rates, and they are not factual, and they often ignore underlying health conditions.

The mathematical models do not take into account any potential treatment either. That is always the flaw in Malthusian thinking. The cure to peak oil was fracking and not the stupid war in Iraq. That is the often destructive nature of Malthusian thinking.

After listening to Dr. Osterholm and his refreshing honesty, I realized that what eventually likely will happen is that most people will get the virus and form antibodies to it. This whole quarantine idea is that hopefully the virus will spread more slowly and not overwhelm our health care system.

It is funny though that people treat this like a life and death decision when there is really nothing that can be done as of now. People want to do something when something like this is on the news day and night experts and government give people things to do, and they want a novel solution to a new problem. But really, the best thing to do is the same old same old advice: If you are diabetic, control your sugars, if you have high blood pressure, take your medication, eat right, exercise, get plenty of sleep. Those seem to be the key to maintaining a healthy immunity and that more so than anything is going to prevent you from dying. It sure seems like everyone or nearly everyone is going to have to deal with this virus given how contagious it is.

[QUOTE=Junior11;2436142]Ah, it was going so great, but now there is quarantine in Medellin. Rappi still works and delivers anything, but chicas 😭.

[URL]https://medellinguru.com/medellin-quarantine/[/URL][/QUOTE]Did the math on Colombia cases. Basically 10 times for every 8 to 10 days. Same basic pattern as everywhere else basically. Just different "kick off" times. Colombia at 128 last number I saw. And deaths will follow the same pattern. At around 1-3% of the active cases, although the numbers are worse than that in Italy. So far countries don't seem to be avoiding this progression, except China that seems to have managed to limit the spread within the country. It is now a low risk location. Unlike the US, Canada, Europe. Etc.

This starts to level out at some point. But only China has been through the cycle so far. Some countries like Japan seem to have flattened out the curve, but certainly not so in US, and too soon to say for Colombia, etc. Canada. Maybe, but not showing yet.

There's a two week lag with anything that is done. In Canada we're basically in a no contact mode - 6 feet distance if you have to be out. Nothing open except groceries, etc. Etc. In a couple of weeks hopefully we'll see a drop in the rate of increase. That's the best that can be hoped for. For a few months anyway. We're at 7-800 cases in Canada. US somewhere around 10 times that.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2436156]Did the math on Colombia cases. Basically 10 times for every 8 to 10 days. Same basic pattern as everywhere else basically. Just different "kick off" times. Colombia at 128 last number I saw. And deaths will follow the same pattern. At around 1-3% of the active cases, although the numbers are worse than that in Italy. So far countries don't seem to be avoiding this progression, except China that seems to have managed to limit the spread within the country. It is now a low risk location. Unlike the US, Canada, Europe. Etc.

This starts to level out at some point. But only China has been through the cycle so far. Some countries like Japan seem to have flattened out the curve, but certainly not so in US, and too soon to say for Colombia, etc. Canada. Maybe, but not showing yet.

There's a two week lag with anything that is done. In Canada we're basically in a no contact mode - 6 feet distance if you have to be out. Nothing open except groceries, etc. Etc. In a couple of weeks hopefully we'll see a drop in the rate of increase. That's the best that can be hoped for. For a few months anyway. We're at 7-800 cases in Canada. US somewhere around 10 times that.[/QUOTE]Sorry for responding to my own post. But have to say this. To my friends in Colombia, and there are many. If you have any health issues, including just being old (like me) take care of yourselves. Meaning. In my opinion only. Lock yourselves away in your apartment, hotel. The other day as I was leaving Bogota I saw some older person being helped down the street by two family members. On the way to a clinic or something. I don't know what it was. But this thing could be in the thousands already in the cities. Apparently the numbers that actually have it can be as much as 10 times as those actually getting diagnosed. Anyway. The chances of running into it are going up by 10 times every few days. Say every 10 days roughly. So take care.

First part not directly related to Colombia but following up on Elvis 2008 post. Pretty sure this is the land border.

Trump announces USA -Mexico border closure to stem spread of coronavirus.

[URL]https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/03/19/u-s-mexico-officials-look-ban-non-essential-travel-across-border/2874497001/[/URL]

I noticed that one can still find flights to some of these destinations but with a huge link to the warning about the international travel advisory that basically says you may not get back into the country at any time in the foreseeable future.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2436161]Not directly related to Colombia but following up on Elvis 2008 post. Pretty sure this is the land border and.

Trump announces USA -Mexico border closure to stem spread of coronavirus.

[URL]https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/03/19/u-s-mexico-officials-look-ban-non-essential-travel-across-border/2874497001/[/URL]

I noticed that one can still find flights to some of these destinations but with a huge link to the warning about the international travel advisory that basically says you may not get back into the country at any time in the foreseeable future.[/QUOTE]It's not closed. They're stopping non-essential traffic. No tourists are going to be allowed in. You can still travel for work, hence trucks are still going to get through.

Reading the list of Exceptions to the Quarantine Order.

Personnel and vehicles that carry out the operation and logistics of the Medellin Lottery draw.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2436031]Seriously, is English your primary language? Because you are having a difficult time understanding some simple English. The death rate is not a count of anything, it is a percentage. Do you believe the confirmed count is an accurate count of everyone who has contracted the virus? If you can agree that there are people with the virus who have not been counted, then the death rate is not accurate. An inaccurate number used to determine a rate renders the rate inaccurate, which is useless.[/QUOTE]A mortality rate is rarely going to be accurate. Only with rare, completely contained outbreaks is there any chance to get it exactly right. Do you believe every case of the flu gets reported? Every year it's just an estimate.

To consider the other side, not every death caused by a disease is attributed to the disease. How many pneumonia deaths throughout Asia weren't attributed to COVID-19? Pneumonia is fairly common. At least early on, nobody knew to check for coronavirus.

But a mortality rate, or CFR (Case Fatality Ratio), as the researchers call it is useful, even at the beginning, when it's the most inaccurate. It provides a worst case potential for the disease. Which gives us the ability to overreact. In the case of infectious disease, overreacting is very important.

This seems to be your blind spot. The CFR in Wuhan was over 12%. That's high. Especially with a transmission rate over 2. Transmission rate is the number of people each infected person is expected to infect. In Italy CFR is 8%, still high. In the US we currently have no idea because widespread testing is still not happening. We'll have a better idea in a few weeks.

With an infectious disease, especially one which threatens to overwhelm our healthcare system, we can't wait until it's over, count up the dead and then decide if we should take it seriously. If your house is on fire, you don't stand around watching until it goes out, before deciding if you want to call the fire department. It's much better to have 4 firetrucks show up and have 1 guy put out the fire in 10 seconds than have nobody show up and 30 houses burn down.

That "useless", "inaccurate" "death rate" is why the world is shutdown. Again, it doesn't matter how useless you think it is. The people who have spent their entire careers working with these types of outbreaks don't think the numbers are useless. The people governments around the world call in any time there is an outbreak don't think the numbers are useless.

Unless you want to provide some credentials, showing your opinion is more valid than the WHO, CDC and NIH, I'm going to stick with them.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2436161]First part not directly related to Colombia but following up on Elvis 2008 post. Pretty sure this is the land border.

Trump announces USA -Mexico border closure to stem spread of coronavirus.

[URL]https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/03/19/u-s-mexico-officials-look-ban-non-essential-travel-across-border/2874497001/[/URL]

I noticed that one can still find flights to some of these destinations but with a huge link to the warning about the international travel advisory that basically says you may not get back into the country at any time in the foreseeable future.[/QUOTE]Same with the Canadian land border. Fortunately, I'm essential, regardless of what some may think. I'll be continuing to run back and forth across the border.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2436203]Same with the Canadian land border. Fortunately, I'm essential, regardless of what some may think. I'll be continuing to run back and forth across the border.[/QUOTE]I think your off a bit, did you mean to say "inessential".

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2436161]First part not directly related to Colombia but following up on Elvis 2008 post. Pretty sure this is the land border.

Trump announces USA -Mexico border closure to stem spread of coronavirus.

[URL]https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/03/19/u-s-mexico-officials-look-ban-non-essential-travel-across-border/2874497001/[/URL]

I noticed that one can still find flights to some of these destinations but with a huge link to the warning about the international travel advisory that basically says you may not get back into the country at any time in the foreseeable future.[/QUOTE]Well I am hosed, I live an hour and a half drive from Tijuana, and also have SENTRI to facilitate crossing back into the USA, but am not sure if banging hookers in Tijuana would qualify as "essential travel" by the CBP, but I consider it essential travel.

[QUOTE=Junior11;2436142]Ah, it was going so great, but now there is quarantine in Medellin. Rappi still works and delivers anything, but chicas 😭.

[URL]https://medellinguru.com/medellin-quarantine/[/URL][/QUOTE]I don't understand the logic of only a three day quarantine. Lots of people go out of town and travel on a holiday weekend and I can understand what their doing, but what happens on Tuesday, everything goes back to normal.

Is this perhaps a predecessor to weekend shutdowns moving forward? Doing what they want to do will help, but unless it's done like what's happening in other Countries like full time, it will only further delay the inevitable.

I think the Colombian Government is afraid to go into full shut down mode shuttering everything, and I can't blame them. This whole situation is so sad.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435973]I am comparing total deaths because we don't really know the death rate. Unless everyone was tested, we would not know the number of cases. So the death rate we are seeing is pretty much useless. For the coronavirus, it is now at about 1.5% in the US, and earlier reports showed it at 3.4%.

I don't know the relevance of most deaths in China are in one region. A majority of the deaths in the US are in two states.[/QUOTE]I've been showing ultimate restraint in not responding to your absolute, undeniable idiocy.

You're saying the DEATH RATE is not accurate because we don't know the total number of infections BUT you 100% trust the number of DEATHS that are recorded, do you even realize how idiotic that is?

Do you not realize there are 10 different ways to prove this number is also inaccurate? I'm sorry to start insulting people here, but you're a dumbass.

The 3. 4% mortality rate is a worldwide figure. There have been models generated that took account for the various changing factors you enjoy cherry-picking to fit your unfounded beliefs, including: not knowing all infections, not knowing all deaths because China was only recording deaths from people who were diagnosed positive covid BEFORE death, knowing many deaths have been attributed to pneumonia and not covid in certain countries like Thailand, taking into account the 10-20 day delay between infection growth and mortality. I could keep going. These models still found 3-4% mortality rate to be accurate in a variety of scenarios.

Clearly you think you are smarter than every advanced nation in the world, all the doctors who are fighting this, and the medical professionals working 20 hour shifts in the countries that have had spread before the US must all be lying about the severity of the issue. COME ON. You are not just irredeemably stupid, you may actually be retarded. If you are, let us know, I'll stop getting on you for it, because at least there would be a reason for this.

I've posted so many published, reviewed medical journal studies in this forum, it's absurd. I'm not doing more research for people, this shit is all easily searchable. I've been posting about it since China was below 20,000 confirmed cases. People were saying it was nonsense then. It took 7 weeks to get to 100,000 cases, it took 10 days to get to 200,000 cases, now we're at 275,000 cases in just 3 more days. We're going to be seeing 100,000 cases per day in less than a week. Clearly there are more, the bottleneck is TESTING.

I'll say it again, there is a 10-20 day DELAY FROM INFECTION TO DEATH, comparing current deaths to current infections is incorrect math. You said this "So the death rate we are seeing is pretty much useless. For the coronavirus, it is now at about 1. 5% in the US, and earlier reports showed it at 3. 4%. ".

So, you say the death rate is useless, but then in your very next sentence you infer it isn't that serious because it is 1. 5% vs 3. 4%, not even realizing that your math is wrong. JESUS CHRIST.

Here is another glimpse into your absolute genius "A majority of the deaths in the US are in two states. ".

I hope your tiny brain can understand that this is not contained by state lines. What in the actual f* does that have to do with anything? The US is borderline about to have the highest daily growth rate of any country in the world, give it two days. Do you even know how to read a graph?

There is so much data on this, it is overwhelming. How we are still arguing about this is blowing my mind.

Since we had been discussing this drug earlier in the thread, when I saw this article in the Mercury News it seemed like something that should be mentioned.

Be very careful self dosing chloroquine. Virus drug touted by President Trump, Elon Musk. Chloroquine can kill with just two gram dose. A Wuhan Institute of Virology study found that the drug can kill an adult just dosed at twice the daily amount recommended for treatment, which is one gram. It's forbidden for pregnant women as it can cause congenital defects in babies. The drug cannot be given to pregnant women, those with heart disease, terminal liver and renal disease, retina and hearing loss and patients on antibiotics such as azithromycin and steroid.

[URL]https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/20/virus-drug-touted-by-president-trump-elon-musk-can-kill-with-just-two-gram-dose/[/URL]

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2436281]Since we had been discussing this drug earlier in the thread, when I saw this article in the Mercury News it seemed like something that should be mentioned.

Be very careful self dosing chloroquine. Virus drug touted by President Trump, Elon Musk. Chloroquine can kill with just two gram dose. A Wuhan Institute of Virology study found that the drug can kill an adult just dosed at twice the daily amount recommended for treatment, which is one gram. It's forbidden for pregnant women as it can cause congenital defects in babies. The drug cannot be given to pregnant women, those with heart disease, terminal liver and renal disease, retina and hearing loss and patients on antibiotics such as azithromycin and steroid.

[URL]https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/20/virus-drug-touted-by-president-trump-elon-musk-can-kill-with-just-two-gram-dose/[/URL][/QUOTE]I saw this in Bloomberg too. It's not entirely accurate. Chloro is quite safe and one of the best protocols for covid is both Chloro and Azithro. I know people who have been taking Chloro for 25 years for autoimmune disease and while they get checked every 6 months, they have had no adverse side effects. Aspirin can also kill you at high doses. That article is very misleading and has inconsistencies.

Here are multiple studies on the safety of Chloro and Cardiac Safety:

[URL]https://academic.oup.com/europace/article/16/6/887/559803[/URL]

[URL]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16942005[/URL]

[URL]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2460205[/URL]

[URL]https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circep.111.966820[/URL]

[URL]https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM195804172581608[/URL]

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2436279]

I hope your tiny brain can understand that this is not contained by state lines. What in the actual f* does that have to do with anything? The US is borderline about to have the highest daily growth rate of any country in the world, give it two days. Do you even know how to read a graph?

There is so much data on this, it is overwhelming. How we are still arguing about this is blowing my mind.[/QUOTE]Yes, unfortunately the US may end up in the same place as Italy:

[URL]https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting[/URL]

At least statistically speaking its moving down the same path. This is why governments are putting in all these measures. Or as the Chief Public Health Officer of Canada said, and I paraphrase: we don't want to just flatten the curve, we want to plank it.

What's shocking to me is that the UK only today had restaurants and bars close down. WTF. They took this long?

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435973]I am comparing total deaths because we don't really know the death rate. Unless everyone was tested, we would not know the number of cases. So the death rate we are seeing is pretty much useless. For the coronavirus, it is now at about 1.5% in the US, and earlier reports showed it at 3.4%.

I don't know the relevance of most deaths in China are in one region. A majority of the deaths in the US are in two states.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2436279] You are not just irredeemably stupid, you may actually be retarded. .[/QUOTE]Can we please try to refrain from name calling and stick to attacking the idiotic information. Fun Luvr is vomiting out erroneous opinions in the face of world class expertise. But let's attack the information and refrain from the name calling.

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2436279]You're saying the DEATH RATE is not accurate because we don't know the total number of infections BUT you 100% trust the number of DEATHS that are recorded, do you even realize how idiotic that is?

Here is another glimpse into your absolute genius "A majority of the deaths in the US are in two states. ".
I hope your tiny brain can understand that this is not contained by state lines. What in the actual f* does that have to do with anything? The US is borderline about to have the highest daily growth rate of any country in the world, give it two days. Do you even know how to read a graph?[/QUOTE]You are cherry picking in an attempt to verify your statements. I was responding to another poster's question of whether I was using the death rate or death count. I was explaining why I didn't use the death rate, and I never said nor implied that the death count was an accurate coronavirus death count. The 1.5% and 3.4% rates were used to show that the death rate was not very useful. That is the reason it was the next sentence after my comment about the usefulness of the death rate. 3.4% was the reported US death rate a few days ago, before testing was ramped up.

The sentence immediately before the two states comment is "I don't know the relevance of most deaths in China are in one region." But it's probably too much to ask you to comprehend two sentences that are together in the same paragraph.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2436300]
The sentence immediately before the two states comment is "I don't know the relevance of most deaths in China are in one region." But it's probably too much to ask you to comprehend two sentences that are together in the same paragraph.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2435825]Has it hit China yet? Their reported death toll is 15% of the estimated deaths in the US from the flu since October 2019.[/QUOTE]

Not saying anything is correct or wrong. Just an explanation of my earlier post

[QUOTE=Nounce;2435834]Most deaths in China are in one region.[/QUOTE]



The population of Hubei is less than 60 million. The population of China is more than 1. 3 billion. You are comparing a regional population that is much smaller than the entire US population.

Waiting for world class expert to comment further.

Take care of yourselves. Everyone. About all that can be said. Most countries / places are now locked down. No more travel in and out either already or very soon. So if you're in Colombia I wish you well. I got out last week. And I'm glad I was able to, but not saying that staying for an extended time would have been the end of the world. Just that everyone is now in survival mode. And rightly so.

A few countries thought of just riding it out, letting the thing run it's course. The UK actually said this early on. But now they've changed their mind. Canada took the opposite side relatively early on. So basically everything is shut down, everyone coming in or back is quarantined for 2 weeks, etc. Time will tell if it "flattens the curve". The lag time is at least 2 weeks between taking an action and starting to see any results.

The basic math seems to be about 10 times more every 10 days. So whatever the infection rate, deaths, whatever. In simple terms looks to be growing at that rate. Some countries have "flattened the curve", have it growing at a slower rate than that, and have the rate of increase slowing. China managed to mostly confine it to one province, and it is basically over in that province it appears. But no other country has the capability to do it the way they did.

The key "actions" are to stay out of coughing and sneezing range, and don't touch things and then your face. This one doesn't spread through air. It spreads only on droplets or on surfaces. So it's not that hard to avoid. Well, hard maybe, but not impossible. I would say do your own voluntary quarantine. And that means without visitors. Especially as time goes on.

Anyway. Take care everyone. Hope to get back sometime in a year or so. Might not be possible then, but we'll see.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2436425]
A few countries thought of just riding it out, letting the thing run it's course. The UK actually said this early on. But now they've changed their mind. [/QUOTE]That thinking probably is misinformed. The virus has more opportunities to mutate when there are more infections.

I saw that, it made my jaw drop.

[QUOTE=LoveItHere69;2436185]Reading the list of Exceptions to the Quarantine Order.

Personnel and vehicles that carry out the operation and logistics of the Medellin Lottery draw.[/QUOTE]

What happened to Ebola? I remember it was highly infectious with a very low survival rate. I vaguely remember in 2014 a woman who was lambasted in the media when she was seen outside her house in Maine after possibly being exposed to the virus. Is because it started in Africa and was more isolated from the rest of the world? I'm trying to reconcile how something so deadly can be a distant memory but something with a single digit death rate and 80% recovery is causing the havoc it is causing. My political viewpoint tells me it's a case of something that affected mostly Africans doesn't matter to the rest of the world.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2435509]Those countries don't test as much. That's why you're seeing low numbers right now. The data isn't being collected. They are going to have an outbreak worse than other countries and when people start dropping the flies you'll see it in the news.

This isn't just one strain of the virus. We're going to see three or four waves over the next two years. A vaccine may help lower the spread but its highly infectious (R2. 2 which means everyone spreads it to two other people at least). Things are not going to be normal this year. Maybe sometime next year if enough herd immunity has built up. In the meantime western industrialized countries are trying to avoid a situation like the one in Italy, hence social distancing, to slow the spread.[/QUOTE]

I saw lingering effects of the partying lifestsyle you mentioned.

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2435843]Wow, that's hilarious. I used to party HARD in college with Greg. We didn't stay in touch after college but that guy was a fucking party animal. Fucking wild to see him here on this video.[/QUOTE]

Breaking news, all domestic flights are suspended through April 13.

So far the lockdown hasn't been very troublesome. It was very quiet around town today. I got a whatsapp from a Venezuelan I know from Botero Plaza that said Venezuelans don't feel they can be out of the house until Tuesday. I told her that it applies to everybody not just Venezuelans. It will be interesting to see how the next three weeks go. The mayor of Bogota got into a territorial spat with Duque today that was amusing. Several Duque supporters reminded her only the President has the authority to impose national lockdowns and national lockdowns supersede any local measures. She hinted at a less strict curfew for Bogota. The head of the national police made a statement in support of Duque.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2435904]Totally smart move on his part, maybe I should of stayed instead of leaving. Besides the bitching about Gusto's on the Medellin thread, it sounds like a field day for those either stuck in Medellin or there by choice, hopefully this measure, and others taken by the Colombian Government will help it to avoid the holocausts that have, and / or going to occur in other Countries, including the USA in various parts.[/QUOTE]

Last week I was surprised to see long lines at clinics. I asked a girl in line what was up and she told me they were waiting to be tested for coronavirus. The people were not even 6 inches apart let alone six feet. The test results help track the virus for sure but me personally a positive or negative result isn't going to change me isolating myself. A home test would be more interesting to me. Switching gears to the lockdown, the police are enforcing it for the second night in a row with help from the weather. Both nights it started to rain hard as soon as the sun went down. I'm switching it up tonight, uber eats Indian food from Naan in Laureles. No dates scheduled until Tuesday, I need a break.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2436157]Sorry for responding to my own post. But have to say this. To my friends in Colombia, and there are many. If you have any health issues, including just being old (like me) take care of yourselves. Meaning. In my opinion only. Lock yourselves away in your apartment, hotel. The other day as I was leaving Bogota I saw some older person being helped down the street by two family members. On the way to a clinic or something. I don't know what it was. But this thing could be in the thousands already in the cities. Apparently the numbers that actually have it can be as much as 10 times as those actually getting diagnosed. Anyway. The chances of running into it are going up by 10 times every few days. Say every 10 days roughly. So take care.[/QUOTE]

The border is closed as of today. As of Tuesday all domestic flights are suspended until mid April. Even Colombian citizens are not allowed in, or out. We are North Korea now. Speaking of them, that might be a place with a lot of coronavirus with all the back and forth with China.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2436171]It's not closed. They're stopping non-essential traffic. No tourists are going to be allowed in. You can still travel for work, hence trucks are still going to get through.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2436548]The border is closed as of today. As of Tuesday all domestic flights are suspended until mid April. Even Colombian citizens are not allowed in, or out. We are North Korea now. Speaking of them, that might be a place with a lot of coronavirus with all the back and forth with China.[/QUOTE]We were referring to the US border with Mexico and Canada.

Ebola was not an airborne virus and it did not get into any big cities.

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2436530]What happened to Ebola? I remember it was highly infectious with a very low survival rate. I vaguely remember in 2014 a woman who was lambasted in the media when she was seen outside her house in Maine after possibly being exposed to the virus. Is because it started in Africa and was more isolated from the rest of the world? I'm trying to reconcile how something so deadly can be a distant memory but something with a single digit death rate and 80% recovery is causing the havoc it is causing. My political viewpoint tells me it's a case of something that affected mostly Africans doesn't matter to the rest of the world.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2436548]The border is closed as of today. As of Tuesday all domestic flights are suspended until mid April. Even Colombian citizens are not allowed in, or out. We are North Korea now. Speaking of them, that might be a place with a lot of Coronavirus with all the back and forth with China.[/QUOTE]My bet is the "hermit nation" is roiling with infections, and the way they are handling is most probably by doing nothing, in other words taking no extreme measures, treating it like the flu, no respirators, nobody in ICU's, just let everybody get it, except the Dictator, and avoid the financial impacts with less mouths to feed after whatever the percentage of the population has expired. Sound extreme, maybe not for that Country.

I was thinking the same. It is consistent with the way that government deals with shortages and the population's basic needs. Documentaries that include secretly recorded video are emotionally devastating. My only doubt is how likely it is anyone there would even notice an outbreak of coronavirus because there are so many other severe public health crises. Remember the parasites pulled out of the gut of that border guard who escaped under a hail of bullets? Reports are he was better fed and cared for than most North Koreans because of his military role.

A bit of Colombia content, the weather is beautiful today. I notice people and cars start to move about about half an hour ago. I'm going to take a walk over to the Exito on la 70 for snacks and toiletries. And to check out the talent of course.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2436703]My bet is the "hermit nation" is roiling with infections, and the way they are handling is most probably by doing nothing, in other words taking no extreme measures, treating it like the flu, no respirators, nobody in ICU's, just let everybody get it, except the Dictator, and avoid the financial impacts with less mouths to feed after whatever the percentage of the population has expired. Sound extreme, maybe not for that Country.[/QUOTE]

Here is the transcript of an video from Italy. Check the last part of the transcript.

[URL]https://www.npr.org/transcripts/817974987[/URL]

The doctor publishes this paper.

[URL]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736[/URL](20) 30627-9/ fulltext.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2436757]Here is the transcript of an video from Italy. Check the last part of the transcript.

[URL]https://www.npr.org/transcripts/817974987[/URL]

The doctor publishes this paper.

[URL]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736[/URL](20) 30627-9/ fulltext.[/QUOTE]The second link is not working when I click it nor when I copy and paste, can you list the title of the article in the Lancet?

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2436770]The second link is not working when I click it nor when I copy and paste, can you list the title of the article in the Lancet?[/QUOTE]

[URL]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9/fulltext[/URL]

COVID-19 and Italy: what next?

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2436772][URL]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9/fulltext[/URL]

COVID-19 and Italy: what next?[/QUOTE]Thank you.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2436776]Thank you.[/QUOTE]Italy has been locked down now for around 2 weeks. But death rates are still going up. 7-800 per day, infection over 20,000. Spain looking the same. Couple of days behind. US starting to look the same. Many European countries, Belgium, France, etc. Similar progression.

So only good news is countries that got out ahead of it and then vigorously pursued every single case and every contact of every case. Taiwan started in mid January. And has kept it form taking off. South Korea started a bit late. But seems to have gotten it under control. Japan as well. And China. Looking very good even though it got away in Hubei. But they basically didn't let anyone be out when they cracked down on it. Robot monitors, drones, cameras everywhere.

Apparently in Italy the big thing now is it's spreading within families. One person has it. Then 2 or 3 more, then most of them. So the staying away has to be also in the homes. Ie. 6 ft, and sterile hands, etc.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2436783]
Apparently in Italy the big thing now is it's spreading within families. One person has it. Then 2 or 3 more, then most of them. So the staying away has to be also in the homes. Ie. 6 ft, and sterile hands, etc.[/QUOTE]I read in another article.

A lesson learned in Italy is do't treat COVID-19 patients in a hospital with other patients (The article calls this as western centralized system) because they infect other patients. Either treat them at home (de-centralized) or treat them in a hospital that is only for COVID-19 patients.

Several prison riots broke out.

[URL]https://colombiareports.com/colombia-says-at-least-23-killed-91-injured-in-mass-prison-riots/[/URL]

[QUOTE=BlueTouch;2436853]Several prison riots broke out.

[URL]https://colombiareports.com/colombia-says-at-least-23-killed-91-injured-in-mass-prison-riots/[/URL][/QUOTE]Maybe they should let the nonviolent older offenders serve their time under house arrest.

That was the #2 story on TV news all day yesterday. It was quite something, a big crowd of relatives faced off with police in riot gear outside the La Modelo prision. There was scary footage from helicopters of big fires. The Minister of Justice made a nationwide address to announce the riots were put down and no prisoners escaped. She confirmed the whole thing started as an escape plot but that the plot was "frustrated".

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2436942]Maybe they should let the nonviolent older offenders serve their time under house arrest.[/QUOTE]

Meanwhile, the Secretary of Agriculture is on teleantioquia now announcing that the supply chain is operating perfectly and there are no shortages. His remarks are consistent with what I observed at an Exito yesterday. It was fully stocked and I was surprised to see both the meat section and fresh produce also fully stocked. He just mentioned that Mayorista and Minorista would be open this week. I'll stick to Exito.

He also repeated the President's warning about speculation and gouging twice. There are fines and prison sentences in force.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2436789]I read in another article.

A lesson learned in Italy is do't treat COVID-19 patients in a hospital with other patients (The article calls this as western centralized system) because they infect other patients. Either treat them at home (de-centralized) or treat them in a hospital that is only for COVID-19 patients.[/QUOTE]Essentially what is being done here. Hospital only for those who need intensive care. Otherwise health department monitors people at home. So far under control here. But New York and I think part of California it is out of control. New York is rapidly approaching Italy in numbers. Though not deaths so far. Could be a lag effect. NY went up by 30% in numbers today, may be lag effect as more people with it just now getting tested. Which would be a very bad sign.

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2436962]Meanwhile, the Secretary of Agriculture is on teleantioquia now announcing that the supply chain is operating perfectly and there are no shortages. His remarks are consistent with what I observed at an Exito yesterday. It was fully stocked and I was surprised to see both the meat section and fresh produce also fully stocked. He just mentioned that Mayorista and Minorista would be open this week. I'll stick to Exito.

He also repeated the President's warning about speculation and gouging twice. There are fines and prison sentences in force.[/QUOTE]It hasn't even been a week. I doubt there will be any shortages anytime soon. Maybe if this went on for more than six months you'll start to see issues.

I left Guadalajara yesterday and reluctantly came home. Airport was a ghost town and got through Customs in all of 4 minutes. Everyone was nice. Customs guy asked me why I left. I told him and he seemed more interested in hearing my story than interrogating me.

Copa cancelled or maybe didn't the last flight from Guadalajara to Panama City. I had to reroute my chica through Mexico City which was a disaster zone. I didn't want my chica in Mexico City due to the population density and told her that I would get her to Cancun and a cheap hotel where she could wait out the quarantine there if the flight to Medellin didn't pan out. She was on an Interjet flight to Medellin, and she got on it and made it home. I gave her $150 in walking around money, and she told me that she spent a big chunk of it on food for others. She was in tears talking to me about how many people were stranded there and were hungry or just frustrated. I wonder if we really needed these abrupt quarantines or not. A lot of them seemed cruel and unusual.

Still, the last sane place in the world got insane finally. Our last night out all but two of the restaurants were closed, but we had a great meal at a place called La Casita. It is a grocery store with a cafe and is loaded with American goods. We bought a suitcase and loaded her up with American canned goods, Raman, soup ETC. There was a can of crab. She asked what it was and the translator heard crap instead of crab and translated it to mierda. She got that, tuna, and Alaskan salmon: not a bad haul. Walmart was packed as expected. I went to ten pharmacies trying to buy hydroxychlorquine but had no luck. I did get the azithromycin though.

We were both sad because we aren't going to see each other for a while. She was thinking it will be 30 days, and I felt it will be more like 60. Our last day though was great. We headed to Lake Chapala about an hour from downtown Guadalajara: the lake was filled with beautiful pelicans, the sun shone brightly, the skies were clear, and the mariachi bands played. When we were leaving, a wedding was getting under way and everyone in the wedding parties were on horseback. It sucks to have come back, to be secluded, to stop living for a while, but I will have that last day to cherish. There were a lot of worse places to be than with a gorgeous, sensual Colombian by one's side in the beauty of a hot Mexican day before the end of the world as we know it.

Jesus, what the fuck is it with these Colombian women? Why do I think all the other ethnicities are a complete waste of time?

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2436962]t Mayorista and Minorista would be open this week. I'll stick to Exito.[/QUOTE]I have never been out there but have always been curious about Mayorista. The area that's center is Calle 81 and Carrera 48. Is this primarily a wholesales warehouse area? Do some of these places have a retail counter also? Even still though it probably would not make any sense to go out there unless a person cooked most of their meals. Has anyone reading this ever been there?

I've been rather busy and haven't had a chance to follow up on the chloroquine miracle cure. Just got more information on it.

It was initially reported that in a study of 20 patients, all responded well to treatment with chloroquine. The problem is, 20 patients is a tiny study. It's not nearly large enough to be determinative. Turns out there's another problem with the study.

There were actually 26 people involved in the study, but 6 were excluded from the final results. Of those 6, 1 died and 3 were admitted to ICU.

Once again, it was too small of a study to develop any statistical accuracy, but it's not the perfect cure some have been claiming it is.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2437107]I have never been out there but have always been curious about Mayorista. The area that's center is Calle 81 and Carrera 48. Is this primarily a wholesales warehouse area? Do some of these places have a retail counter also? Even still though it probably would not make any sense to go out there unless a person cooked most of their meals. Has anyone reading this ever been there?[/QUOTE]There used to be a small scale street scene that many years ago was good, but I haven't heard much about the place lately. It' basically like one block long with short time Hotels and Chicas, but the last I was there was many years ago. I believe there are other members that can update us on it. As far as food, etc. It's not like Minorista, with it being one of the cheapest places in town to buy food besides from individual vendors with carts.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2437108]I've been rather busy and haven't had a chance to follow up on the chloroquine miracle cure. Just got more information on it.

It was initially reported that in a study of 20 patients, all responded well to treatment with chloroquine. The problem is, 20 patients is a tiny study. It's not nearly large enough to be determinative. Turns out there's another problem with the study.

There were actually 26 people involved in the study, but 6 were excluded from the final results. Of those 6, 1 died and 3 were admitted to ICU.

Once again, it was too small of a study to develop any statistical accuracy, but it's not the perfect cure some have been claiming it is.[/QUOTE]An Arizona man is dead and his wife is in critical care after they self-medicated with Chloroquine. Just saw the story this morning.

And that's why you don't take medical advice from someone who has never studied medicine.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2437107]I have never been out there but have always been curious about Mayorista. The area that's center is Calle 81 and Carrera 48. Is this primarily a wholesales warehouse area? Do some of these places have a retail counter also? Even still though it probably would not make any sense to go out there unless a person cooked most of their meals. Has anyone reading this ever been there?[/QUOTE]At least some of the places have a retail counter and there's a Euro store there.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2437189]An Arizona man is dead and his wife is in critical care after they self-medicated with Chloroquine. Just saw the story this morning.

And that's why you don't take medical advice from someone who has never studied medicine.[/QUOTE]Yes, but you didn't mention this.

"In Arizona, a man died after reportedly taking a nonmedical form of chloroquine used to fight parasites in aquariums".

Half truths don't work either.

Also I researched and found this.

" The CDC cited a study, documented in the journal Bioscience Trends this month, that chloroquine phosphate has demonstrated 'apparent efficacy and acceptable safety against COVID-19-associated pneumonia' in trials in China.

It is thus considered a recommended antiviral for Covid-19 treatment in China, and several countries are recommending both drugs for hospitalized Covid-19 patients, the CDC said".

Of course we must be be cautious.

" The drugs may be effective against the novel coronavirus, Fauci said, but more data is needed to "show it is truly safe and effective under the conditions of Covid-19. ".

There must be something to the drug, at least for the Gov of NY.

"New York moved to begin trials Tuesday, procuring 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine and 750,000 doses of chloroquine, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said. In addition, Bayer, the drug maker, has donated 3 million doses of Resochin, its brand name for chloroquine, to the federal government".

Please don't shoot the messenger because you don't like him.

I personally am tired of the politics getting involved in this crisis, both medically and in the financial world.

I'm an Independent politically, fiscally conservative, socially liberal.

I give credit to those who I believe deserve it, like the Democratic Governor of NY for his leadership in this crisis as well as others including Pres Trump for stopping traffic early on from China, and many others.

Let's get this world thru this crisis together, and put politics aside.

Not aimed at you personally, but everyone, including myself.

[QUOTE=Balboa;2437279]Yes, but you didn't mention this.

"In Arizona, a man died after reportedly taking a nonmedical form of chloroquine used to fight parasites in aquariums".

Half truths don't work either.

Also I researched and found this.

" The CDC cited a study, documented in the journal Bioscience Trends this month, that chloroquine phosphate has demonstrated 'apparent efficacy and acceptable safety against COVID-19-associated pneumonia' in trials in China.

It is thus considered a recommended antiviral for Covid-19 treatment in China, and several countries are recommending both drugs for hospitalized Covid-19 patients, the CDC said".

Of course we must be be cautious. maker, has donated 3 million doses of Resochin, its brand name for chloroquine, to the federal government".[/QUOTE]The issue is that certain people, without medical credentials, have touted the effectiveness of Chloroquine. This leads some people to choose to self medicate, rarely a good idea, even if you use the correct pharmaceutical rather than a similar, commercially available product, not intended for human consumption.

In my opinion, anyone touting a cure is being irresponsible. The media and the general public aren't going to run clinical trials. The medical research institutes will and they're already aware of the potential benefits. Rather than calling a press conference, the directors who will be running trials should have been called. "What is your opinion on this? Are you investigating this? What do you need from us? How long before you will have some answers?

The time to talk about a cure, is when that cure is tried, tested and available.

Dr. Fauci is correct. It's something to look into. Cuomo is correct, we need large scale trials to determine safety and effectiveness.

I spent nearly 6 years in the Navy working with casualty control response. We ran frequent drills covering any feasible scenario as well as cases which had occurred elsewhere. The intent was to be certain everyone knew what to do in any casualty. We worked hard to make the drills as realistic as possible.

1. Identify the casualty.

2. Inform the necessary people.

3. Take immediate corrective action.

4. Review response to ensure proper action taken.

5. Take recovery steps.

6. Restore systems to normal.

7. Critique action of all involved, determine cause, determine contributing factors, alter response based upon lessons learned.

Communication is critical. Not to the crew or public, but between the people who are dealing with the casualty.

Whether it's flooding, a fire or failure of a critical component, these steps work. What isn't included: Downplay the severity. Consider moderating response or limiting corrective action. Find someone to blame. Calculate the cost. Deny responsibility.

In any emergency or casualty situation, I judge the actions of those in charge based upon the straightforward rules I lived under. It has nothing to do with politics. Are the correct actions being taken? Until the casualty is over that's all I care about.

If this emergency had been one of our casualty control drills, we would have shut it down 2 months ago and rated it a complete failure.

I'm politically flexible, fiscally flexible and socially liberal. Solutions must adapt to problems. Problems will not adapt to fit the available solutions.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2437189]An Arizona man is dead and his wife is in critical care after they self-medicated with Chloroquine. Just saw the story this morning.
[/QUOTE]It is funny how that story has been so promoted by Trump and how hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine working has not been pushed at all. It is almost as if someone in government does not want people panic buying the stuff.

Actually, hydroxychloroquine is ridiculously safe. The use of that drug with azithromycin can prolong the QT interval which is what everyone is focusing on which is meaningless to most lay people. It is much more effective to say "you could die just like this guy in Arizona did" to scare people into not panic buying these drugs.

When I was in Mexico, I stocked up on azithromycin and went to 10 pharmacies looking for hydroxychloroquinine and cholroquinine and couldn't find either. I found one place that had it and they sold out. I asked around in the USA and it is not on pharmacy shelves or even at the distributors level which is probably for the best. I think it is being rationed to the people who are truly sick.

Thailand has been using an antiviral drug with a lot of success and again it hasn't gotten much airtime, and it shouldn't. I am seeing predictions of the virus spreading in line with the medical models now which is scary. The last thing we need now is people thinking there are effective treatments so they do not have to stay in.

Anyway, there were two articles that really changed how I thought about things, the first was the coach of the NO Saints who had a typical case of the virus: [URL]https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/03/23/sean-payton-coronavirus-tom-brady-bucs-nfl-fmia-peter-king/[/URL].

Then what really got me was this bird's eye view from a respiratory therapist: [URL]https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes--terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients?fbclid=IwAR01jUGntqEsNOwS1_bCrApMlZfMYpEyrXdyFnh8dwQDLzR85BgpviKcbzU[/URL].

It took me a while to get a handle on what this was. There has been too much of this "listen to us we are the government" and stupid political hand ringing over what to name the virus and other things. Quite frankly, the government has cried wolf so much that many people including me were slow to accept that this time what was going on was a real problem and not government and the media making a mountain out of a mole hill.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2437189]An Arizona man is dead and his wife is in critical care after they self-medicated with Chloroquine. Just saw the story this morning.

And that's why you don't take medical advice from someone who has never studied medicine.[/QUOTE]Clarification on this one, the Arizona man actually took chloroquine phosphate, a household product used to clean fish tanks. They took a household product versus a " prescribed medication ".

This is a sad story and illustrates how bad this whole thing is when people are taking cleaning products versus prescribed medicines to fend off the virus.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2437310]I took Chlororquine and Mefloquine (Lariam). [/QUOTE]Yeah, I wonder if mefloquine would work as well.

Anyway, the best resources for keeping track of Cololmbia seem to be wiki.

I found the best province map here: [URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Departments_of_Colombia[/URL].

And then the most up to date count here: [URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Colombia[/URL].

I just thought I would point out what I found interesting. The three most populous cities in Colombia are Bogota and Medellin (no surprise there) but Cali has twice as many people as Cartagena and Cartagena is 5th most populous behind Barranquilla. In fact, if you add Soledad, the seventh biggest city and Barranquilla the 4th most populous city, you are pretty close population wise to Medellin or Cali, and the case load is 1 to 9 in the province of Atlantico where Barranquilla and Soledad are located versus 50+ in Bogota and Medellin / Antioquia and 30+ in Cali / Valle de Cauca.

So we have a rough idea of where the virus has started out, namely where the tourists usually come to. Cartagena has more cases than Barranquilla. Cali has fewer tourists than Medellin and Bogota and has fewer cases despite Cali and Medellin being about the same size population wise.

What I wonder is what happens in the coming weeks. If the virus really is heat sensitive, we should not nearly as many new cases in Cartagena versus Bogota and almost none in Barranquilla. I have not been to Cartagena but I got the impression it was much more population dense than Barranquilla. Barranquilla which is hot, not very population dense, and not a place foreigners typically come to, should continue to have fewer new cases.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2437329]Yeah, I wonder if mefloquine would work as well.

Anyway, the best resources for keeping track of Cololmbia seem to be wiki.

I found the best province map here: [URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Departments_of_Colombia[/URL].

And then the most up to date count here: [URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Colombia[/URL].

I just thought I would point out what I found interesting. The three most populous cities in Colombia are Bogota and Medellin (no surprise there) but Cali has twice as many people as Cartagena and Cartagena is 5th most populous behind Barranquilla. In fact, if you add Soledad, the seventh biggest city and Barranquilla the 4th most populous city, you are pretty close population wise to Medellin or Cali, and the case load is 1 to 9 in the province of Atlantico where Barranquilla and Soledad are located versus 50+ in Bogota and Medellin / Antioquia and 30+ in Cali / Valle de Cauca.

So we have a rough idea of where the virus has started out, namely where the tourists usually come to. Cartagena has more cases than Barranquilla. Cali has fewer tourists than Medellin and Bogota and has fewer cases despite Cali and Medellin being about the same size population wise.

What I wonder is what happens in the coming weeks. If the virus really is heat sensitive, we should not nearly as many new cases in Cartagena versus Bogota and almost none in Barranquilla. I have not been to Cartagena but I got the impression it was much more population dense than Barranquilla. Barranquilla which is hot, not very population dense, and not a place foreigners typically come to, should continue to have fewer new cases.[/QUOTE]To be honest, I haven't dug down into the country by country break down of the numbers yet, but I do know this, Virus's attenuate over time, as in, they get weaker over time. This is just one of the many reason's why human's have survived on Earth for millions of years.

In my opinion, this whole corona shitshow will be just another memory by July 2020.

CNN en espanol does a nightly count of cases by country.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2437334]To be honest, I haven't dug down into the country by country break down of the numbers yet, but I do know this, Virus's attenuate over time, as in, they get weaker over time. This is just one of the many reason's why human's have survived on Earth for millions of years.

In my opinion, this whole corona shitshow will be just another memory by July 2020.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2437303]It is funny how that story has been so promoted by Trump and how hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine working has not been pushed at all. It is almost as if someone in government does not want people panic buying the stuff.[/QUOTE]I do not think there is a "conspiracy". Who in the "government" do you think is supposed to be pushing it; there is simply not enough evidence / I think there is even contradictory evidence. It made some patients in one study in China worse by cause renal and liver damage. But if you read the bloomberg story the Bayer company donated a bunch of the drug to New York and they are starting trials to get more information.

[URL]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/hydroxychloroquine-no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study[/URL]

So please consult a Doc before self meidcating.

People have overdosed on the medical version of this drug (you can overdose on anything but the margin is low here).

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/africa/chloroquine-trump-nigeria-intl/index.html[/URL]

"The CDC said the combination can disrupt the heart's electrical activity and warns against prescribing the paired drugs to anyone with chronic medical conditions, such as renal failure or hepatic disease".

Warnings about the dangers of drug interactions for heart patients taking other heart meds.

[URL]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/therapeutic-options.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2437352]I do not think there is a "conspiracy". Who in the "government" do you think is supposed to be pushing it; there is simply not enough evidence / I think there is even contradictory evidence. It made some patients in one study in China worse by ][/QUOTE]So you are the real deal huh?

I'll leave this here as a PSA:

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4[/URL]

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2437365]I'll leave this here as a PSA:

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4[/URL][/QUOTE]That was eye opening presentation, right to the point.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2437361]So you are the real deal huh?[/QUOTE]I actually made a post apologizing because I accidently deleted your post. From my end the "delete post" and "reply with quote" are right next to each other, I went to reply and accidently deleted. IF I was trying to be a dick I would have deleted all of your post- because when I want to be a dick I am the real thing, but no it was an accident and I could not undo it. Then I made an apology post and was replying to your post and Elvis2008 at the same time with some of the same links and I do not know what happened but I do not see the apology. And by the way your inbox is full/

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2437303]It is funny how that story has been so promoted by Trump and how hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine working has not been pushed at all. It is almost as if someone in government does not want people panic buying the stuff.

Actually, hydroxychloroquine is ridiculously safe. The use of that drug with azithromycin can prolong the QT interval which is what everyone is focusing on which is meaningless to most lay people. It is much more effective to say "you could die just like this guy in Arizona did" to scare people into not panic buying these drugs.

When I was in Mexico, I stocked up on azithromycin and went to 10 pharmacies looking for hydroxychloroquinine and cholroquinine and couldn't find either. I found one place that had it and they sold out. I asked around in the USA and it is not on pharmacy shelves or even at the distributors level which is probably for the best. I think it is being rationed to the people who are truly sick..[/QUOTE]My experience with "ridiculously safe" drugs is different from yours. When I first joined the Navy, the safe drug prescribed for almost everything was Tylenol 3 with Codeine. If you went to medical, you walked out with a bottle of T3. At one time I had about 200 doses. Of course that was before we found out Tylenol isn't ridiculously safe. However, it was long after we knew Codeine was a potential problem.

Then along came the next "ridiculously safe" magic pill, Motrin. Out with the T3 and in with the 800 MG Motrin. Once again, it was prescribed for everything. Our standard hangover cure was 2400 MG washed down with a bloody Mary. Then we learned it's not quite as safe as we were all told.

Hydroxylchloroquininine might be an effective treatment, probably even. But, there will be some who react badly to it, there will be some it will be ineffective on and there will probably be some who it will kill, or cause other, previously unknown problems. That's why widespread studies are needed, so we can determine who it will cure and who it will kill before it's been administered.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2437372]I actually made a post apologizing because I accidently deleted your post. From my end the "delete post" and "reply with quote" are right next to each other, I went to reply and accidently deleted. IF I was trying to be a dick I would have deleted all of your post- because when I want to be a dick I am the real thing, but no it was an accident and I could not undo it. Then I made an apology post and was replying to your post and Elvis2008 at the same time with some of the same links and I do not know what happened but I do not see the apology. And by the way your inbox is full/[/QUOTE]I made the same mistake once on a USASG blog I had. It's easy to do.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2437372]I actually made a post apologizing because I accidently deleted your post. From my end the "delete post" and "reply with quote" are right next to each other, I went to reply and accidently deleted. IF I was trying to be a dick I would have deleted all of your post- because when I want to be a dick I am the real thing, but no it was an accident and I could not undo it. Then I made an apology post and was replying to your post and Elvis2008 at the same time with some of the same links and I do not know what happened but I do not see the apology. And by the way your inbox is full/[/QUOTE]No worries, apology accepted. We all make mistakes. Peace.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2437465]
Hydroxylchloroquininine might be an effective treatment, probably even. But, there will be some who react badly to it, there will be some it will be ineffective on and there will probably be some who it will kill, or cause other, previously unknown problems. That's why widespread studies are needed, so we can determine who it will cure and who it will kill before it's been administered.[/QUOTE]Hydroxychlorquine works in vitro and it likely does in people. Studies are not a luxury with some patients now, and the safety of the drug is well known given that it has been out for decades.

Look there are grownups, and the idiots who would hoard this stuff for themselves if the government did say it work as they did with toilet paper. I would do the same thing that the government is doing.

To this day, I still marvel at the stupidity with condoms and AIDS / HIV. It is amazing how many people think condoms do not have any side effects and work against HIV / AIDS, but I get it. If it means the scaring the shit out of guys thinking they WILL get AIDS and die to decrease the number of unwanted pregnancies and abortions then I would be touting condom use too as "safe sex".

I've heard of latex allergies. What are the other side effects of condoms?

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2437554]Hydroxychlorquine works in vitro and it likely does in people. Studies are not a luxury with some patients now, and the safety of the drug is well known given that it has been out for decades.

Look there are grownups, and the idiots who would hoard this stuff for themselves if the government did say it work as they did with toilet paper. I would do the same thing that the government is doing.

To this day, I still marvel at the stupidity with condoms and AIDS / HIV. It is amazing how many people think condoms do not have any side effects and work against HIV / AIDS, but I get it. If it means the scaring the shit out of guys thinking they WILL get AIDS and die to decrease the number of unwanted pregnancies and abortions then I would be touting condom use too as "safe sex".[/QUOTE]

Tourists trapped in Colombia by coronavirus hope for flights home:

[URL]https://mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21C34L?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D[/URL]#referrer=https%3 A%2 F%2 F [URL]www.google.com[/URL]&amp_tf=From%20%251%24's&ampshare=https%3 A%2 F%2 F[URL]www.reuters.com[/URL]%2 Farticle%2 Fus-health-coronavirus-Colombia-tourists-idUSKBN21 C34 L.

Long f'ing URL.

Same story US News

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-25/tourists-trapped-in-colombia-by-coronavirus-hope-for-flights-home

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2437764]I've heard of latex allergies. What are the other side effects of condoms?[/QUOTE]That is the main one I was talking about, but when you mention allergies, the most extreme example is anaphylaxis. There have been lawsuits won on this and also there was one example in the literature of a nurse putting on latex gloves and dying.

The simplest issue is just dermatitis. Once you start mentioning this to people as a problem, you would be amazed at how often you hear about it. A lot of times men and woman have itchy bumps and they swear it is a STD but it is just from condoms. Also, the more often you use condoms, the more likely you will eventually form an allergy.

When you see what the latex allergy rate is versus how effective condoms really are, you will question the whole notion of condom use and "safe sex".

The Trump pills are about $25, the Zpack is about $15. No real panic has set in and most things are available, Cops everywhere.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2437789]Tourists trapped in Colombia by coronavirus hope for flights home:


Same story US News

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-25/tourists-trapped-in-colombia-by-coronavirus-hope-for-flights-home[/QUOTE]Very stupid move by the government. They should be putting them in hotels with meal vouchers. Letting them sleep in the airport is bad for health reasons (anyone who has the virus is spreading it now) and none of those tourists or anyone they know will want to go back to Colombia.

I'd guess that in exactly three months most of the citizens of countries around the world will be allowed back into Colombia. Except Americans.

America is exploding with the virus with no end in sight and with very poor crisis management, a focus on the stock market over public health and millions who will get bored soon with "social distancing" there may still be hundreds of thousands of cases even in June.

Is that a reasonable assumption?

[QUOTE=Lou32;2437930]I'd guess that in exactly three months most of the citizens of countries around the world will be allowed back into Colombia. Except Americans.

America is exploding with the virus with no end in sight and with very poor crisis management, a focus on the stock market over public health and millions who will get bored soon with "social distancing" there may still be hundreds of thousands of cases even in June.

Is that a reasonable assumption?[/QUOTE]I don't know.

This is just my opinion, but I feel that relaxing all social distancing and pushing for a return to normal for Easter Sunday is a bad idea. We have not peaked yet and it's unlikely every carrier will be identified and isolated over the next 2 weeks.

If I'm correct, I would expect the number of new cases to begin to drop in 3 weeks, but then surge upwards the following week. That puts us back to day 1 again, except instead of 15 cases, we're starting at 500,000 cases. We would be lucky to peak by late June.

On the other hand, (still just my opinion), if we hold tight through April, possibly to mid May, we could have it under control and be back to normal early June.

[QUOTE=Lou32;2437930]I'd guess that in exactly three months most of the citizens of countries around the world will be allowed back into Colombia. Except Americans.

America is exploding with the virus with no end in sight and with very poor crisis management, a focus on the stock market over public health and millions who will get bored soon with "social distancing" there may still be hundreds of thousands of cases even in June.

Is that a reasonable assumption?[/QUOTE]If you want to go with the four states with the highest number of cases, Lou, they are all run by Democratic governors. Is that what you mean by poor crisis management?

Or did you mean the Democrats in Louisiana, the mayor of New Orleans and governor of Louisiana, who allowed Mardi Gras to go on as planned, and Louisiana had an explosion of cases?

So I think what is reasonable is that Colombia will let in Americans who live in states who voted for Trump and are led by Republican governors because those states have much fewer cases on average than other states.

And before you go off on one of those Republican knuckle dragger comments, I am the rarest of breeds these days. I actually vote for the best candidate which meant I voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Trump in 2016.

In fact, I will say that when someone as intelligent as yourself makes the comment that you are not going to get laid in Colombia and it is Trump's fault, the virus is the least of the problems the USA has. How did a fucking virus with no known treatment become THIS political?

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2437981]I don't know.

This is just my opinion, but I feel that relaxing all social distancing and pushing for a return to normal for Easter Sunday is a bad idea. We have not peaked yet and it's unlikely every carrier will be identified and isolated over the next 2 weeks.

If I'm correct, I would expect the number of new cases to begin to drop in 3 weeks, but then surge upwards the following week. That puts us back to day 1 again, except instead of 15 cases, we're starting at 500,000 cases. We would be lucky to peak by late June.

On the other hand, (still just my opinion), if we hold tight through April, possibly to mid May, we could have it under control and be back to normal early June.[/QUOTE]I am of the opinion that we will be lucky to be get back into Colombia by June 2021 and I hope I am dead wrong on this.

My prediction is that several Countries will not allow visitors into to their Countries until there is a proven vaccine for the virus, no different than the Yellow Fever Vaccination Certificate required by several Countries now.

Hopefully I am wrong on this, and besides a vaccine a miracle cure would be great as well.

I am planning on the long haul for the time being.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2438015]If you want to go with the four states with the highest number of cases, Lou, they are all run by Democratic governors. Is that what you mean by poor crisis management?

Or did you mean the Democrats in Louisiana, the mayor of New Orleans and governor of Louisiana, who allowed Mardi Gras to go on as planned, and Louisiana had an explosion of cases?

So I think what is reasonable is that Colombia will let in Americans who live in states who voted for Trump and are led by Republican governors because those states have much fewer cases on average than other states.

And before you go off on one of those Republican knuckle dragger comments, I am the rarest of breeds these days. I actually vote for the best candidate which meant I voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Trump in 2016.

In fact, I will say that when someone as intelligent as yourself makes the comment that you are not going to get laid in Colombia and it is Trump's fault, the virus is the least of the problems the USA has. How did a fucking virus with no known treatment become THIS political?[/QUOTE]Apologies to Balboa.

That's a rather simplified view of the situation.

Washington, New York, California and Louisiana?

On January 31 the DHS authorized 8 airports to receive flights from China. Two in California, 1 in Washington and 1 in New York. Testing was not being done, no quarantine rules were in place and the official US government stance was we had nothing to worry about.

How many asymptomatic people made it through the screening? With a transmission rate of 2.5, it only takes a few. It seems inevitable those areas would be hit first, regardless of politics.

Louisiana, you mentioned Mardi Gras. February 25,2020. Travelers from all over converge on New Orleans, causing the French Quarter to briefly become one of the most densely populated places on earth.

Also on that date, these words from President Trump:

Feb. 25: "You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are. Getting better. They're all getting better. . As far as what we're doing with the new virus, I think that we're doing a great job."

Was the Democratic governor of Louisiana wrong in assuming there was no serious problem, or was President Trump wrong for his statement?

It doesn't do is any good to point fingers, but if we're going to do it, let's point them everywhere, rather than just picking our favorite target.

How are those states handling things now? Louisiana has cracked down. They appear to realize they screwed up bad. Next door, Mississippi is pretending there's nothing to worry about.

Over the next 2 weeks we'll have a better idea how every state is doing. I expect few bright spots, except for states with very low population densities.

I highly doubt Colombia is going to only allow passengers from certain states. They'll either open up to a country, or not.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2438015]If you want to go with the four states with the highest number of cases, Lou, they are all run by Democratic governors. Is that what you mean by poor crisis management?

Or did you mean the Democrats in Louisiana, the mayor of New Orleans and governor of Louisiana, who allowed Mardi Gras to go on as planned, and Louisiana had an explosion of cases?

So I think what is reasonable is that Colombia will let in Americans who live in states who voted for Trump and are led by Republican governors because those states have much fewer cases on average than other states.

And before you go off on one of those Republican knuckle dragger comments, I am the rarest of breeds these days. I actually vote for the best candidate which meant I voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Trump in 2016.

In fact, I will say that when someone as intelligent as yourself makes the comment that you are not going to get laid in Colombia and it is Trump's fault, the virus is the least of the problems the USA has. How did a fucking virus with no known treatment become THIS political?[/QUOTE]Unfortunately this issue is dividing Republicans and Democrats even further apart at this time. I have gotten into shouting matches with a few good friends over this, and know others ready to dissolve friendships over this.

Lets hope a vaccine and miracle cure is developed rapidly so we can get back to Medellin and banging all those beautiful women.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2437981]I don't know.

This is just my opinion, but I feel that relaxing all social distancing and pushing for a return to normal for Easter Sunday is a bad idea. We have not peaked yet and it's unlikely every carrier will be identified and isolated over the next 2 weeks.

If I'm correct, I would expect the number of new cases to begin to drop in 3 weeks, but then surge upwards the following week. That puts us back to day 1 again, except instead of 15 cases, we're starting at 500,000 cases. We would be lucky to peak by late June.

On the other hand, (still just my opinion), if we hold tight through April, possibly to mid May, we could have it under control and be back to normal early June.[/QUOTE]We know your point is true from history:

[URL]https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu[/URL]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2438015]If you want to go with the four states with the highest number of cases, Lou, they are all run by Democratic governors. Is that what you mean by poor crisis management?

Or did you mean the Democrats in Louisiana, the mayor of New Orleans and governor of Louisiana, who allowed Mardi Gras to go on as planned, and Louisiana had an explosion of cases?

So I think what is reasonable is that Colombia will let in Americans who live in states who voted for Trump and are led by Republican governors because those states have much fewer cases on average than other states.

And before you go off on one of those Republican knuckle dragger comments, I am the rarest of breeds these days. I actually vote for the best candidate which meant I voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Trump in 2016.

In fact, I will say that when someone as intelligent as yourself makes the comment that you are not going to get laid in Colombia and it is Trump's fault, the virus is the least of the problems the USA has. How did a fucking virus with no known treatment become THIS political?[/QUOTE]Seriously, dude?

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2438025]
Lets hope a vaccine and miracle cure is developed rapidly so we can get back to Medellin and banging all those beautiful women.[/QUOTE]Man I hope so!

Just watched a special on "cures and vaccines" for this corona beast.

The doc said 2-3 weeks for good data on the Hydroxychlorquine, Zpak deal as well as Plasma use from those who've recovered.

A vaccine in hopefully 9-10 months from now, however, not to wait for the trials to end / drug approval to start production.

That would take too long.

Said there are several vaccines being tested so several shots on goal to work against this virus.

[QUOTE=Lou32;2438065]Seriously, dude?[/QUOTE]What I said. Unbelievably ignorant.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2438024]
That's a rather simplified view of the situation. Washington, New York, California and Louisiana?[/QUOTE]I think if you add New Jersey to the list and you are at 5, but to me, the simplest thing to do is tune into mainstream media and say it is all Trump's problem.

Trump's failures are well documented: downplaying the crisis, putting the stock market above people. I have heard all of that ad nauseam.

But you don't hear about the Democrats screwups. For that, you can see those here and here:

[URL]https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1243291084568100865?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1243291084568100865&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fhealth%2Fnew-orleans-mayor-blames-trump-going-ahead-mardis-gras-big-easy-new-southern-epicenter[/URL]

[URL]https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1243413067234308096[/URL]

And then you have this totally disgusting tweet from Hiliary Clinton:

[URL]https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1243597001754894337[/URL]

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2438024]It doesn't do is any good to point fingers, but if we're going to do it, let's point them everywhere, rather than just picking our favorite target.[/QUOTE]I must have missed the part where you pointed a finger at a Democrat. Okay, the CDC is under Trump. He has to own the CDC screwed up the testing. I get that. How about the NYC public health official who said everything was fine, and the city was prepared? Or the mayor of NYC telling everyone to keep eating out the same day the NBA quit its season? Or the mayor of NO not listening to the CDC? Or having a fucking parade in Chinatown in NYC in Feb? Or saying blocking flights from China was racist?

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2438024]How are those states handling things now? Louisiana has cracked down. They appear to realize they screwed up bad. Next door, Mississippi is pretending there's nothing to worry about.[/QUOTE]2746 total cases in Louisiana and 579 in Mississippi?

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2438024]With a transmission rate of 2.5, it only takes a few.[/QUOTE]Ooooh boy! You buy that? There were only 8 deaths in Beijing and 5 in Shanghai. That is a very imperfect number based on a lousy data set. There were 3300 dead in China, the number of active cases is way down there, and "experts" are predicting worst case scenario a million dead in the USA and best case 200,000. It is at that point the "experts" should be tuned out. Those "experts" seem to be like Hiliary Clinton cheering on larger number of cases and the dead.

Why didn't the number of cases in China explode? Whenever something good happens, man always takes the credit or the blame. They quarantined like we couldn't. Sure, it could have been that. Or the weather changed. Or pollution went way down ETC. Establishing cause and effect with a new virus is a guess at best.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2438024]Over the next 2 weeks we'll have a better idea how every state is doing. I expect few bright spots, except for states with very low population densities.[/QUOTE]You don't have this information, but the peak is at five days after exposure, so we should start seeing some better news very quickly.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2438024]I highly doubt Colombia is going to only allow passengers from certain states. They'll either open up to a country, or not.[/QUOTE]Oh yeah, my comment was in jest. I heard from one of my Colombian friends that Colombia somehow screwed up the count. Sigh. American has no flights scheduled until late April. I hope things are over by then, but my gut is we are looking at May.

The point of my post was to show how bad Trump derangement syndrome is. Here is this guy Lou saying that he is not going to get laid in Colombia because of Trump, and the thing is that if you watch certain news channels, it is completely normal to blame Trump for EVERYTHING.

So you have the Republican POV where the virus is no big deal. The Democratic POV where Trump screwed up and millions are going to die, and these topics not what to do to not get sick are squeezed out. I am tired of the blame game getting in the way of real news!

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2438025]Unfortunately this issue is dividing Republicans and Democrats even further apart at this time. I have gotten into shouting matches with a few good friends over this, and know others ready to dissolve friendships over this.[/QUOTE]Like I said, this blame game is getting in the way of real information.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2438025]Lets hope a vaccine and miracle cure is developed rapidly so we can get back to Medellin and banging all those beautiful women.[/QUOTE]The virus burned itself out in China, and it will do likewise in the USA and in Colombia. Doctors are getting better at treating the symptoms, another story not being told. When I talk about real information, I am talking about staying away from ibuprofen, selenium, and elderberry when sick. That is not out there nearly enough. Steroids were tried and found to hurt not help. Ventilator settings are now known. Nurses learn to suction better. Patients do better when not overloaded with too much fluid.

This is one doctor stated: Clinical course is predictable.

2-11 days after exposure (day 5 on average) flu like symptoms start.

On Day 10, Cytokine storm leading to acute ARDS and multiorgan failure. You can literally watch it happen in a matter of hours.

This is predominantly due to one cytokine called IL-6. Thing is, and this is not what is in any mathematical models, is that IL-6 can be lowered with a number of different methods. So when you have a patient failing, anything can and is being tried. Slowly, treatments that are not going to go through the FDA protocols will be shared once doctors hit on the right treatment.

People like to think that what all doctors do is follow these rigid scientific protocols. What really happens is a lot more trial and error than people realize.

That is the problem with all the gloom and doom Malthusian models. They just assume people are not going to get better in solving a problem, and they always do.

In this case, I would actually bet on nature solving the problem more quickly than man can. If enough people get exposed to the virus and form immunity, then a vaccine will not be needed.

France Spain Italy.

[QUOTE=TheCane;2438073]What I said. Unbelievably ignorant.[/QUOTE]I agree, your comment was ignorant. Why did you inject silly American politics into this discussion?

[QUOTE=Lou32;2438205]I agree, your comment was ignorant. Why did you inject silly American politics into this discussion?[/QUOTE]Excuse me, but I was attempting to agree with you. This is not a time for partisan politics, and I found his post to be unbelievably ignorant. Some people. No matter what.

Ignorant partisanship in these times? See ya and wouldn't want to be ya: [URL]https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/03/27/fox-business-host-out-after-coronavirus-comments/23963652/[/URL].

Guys,

This is an unprecedented situation that transcends politics. I understand that for some nothing transcends politics. The world will be able to resolve this situation faster and with less long term damage if we try to find common ground.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2438139]In this case, I would actually bet on nature solving the problem more quickly than man can. If enough people get exposed to the virus and form immunity, then a vaccine will not be needed.[/QUOTE]I posted earlier regarding my thoughts regarding North Korea. I suspect they are taking no draconian measures if any to handle those infected and just letting nature take it's course and at the end of the day a little smaller population, less mouths to feed, and none of the financial upending taking place all over the world. Perhaps this approach in retrospect may of been the way the world should of approached this.

Regardless, I see a vaccine needed which I predict will become a requirement for entry into Countries, no different than the Yellow Fever Certificate required by some Countries for entry.

[QUOTE=Lou32;2438205]I agree, your comment was ignorant. Why did you inject silly American politics into this discussion?[/QUOTE]I withdraw this post.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2438027]We know your point is true from history:

[URL]https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu[/URL][/QUOTE]I think there is another problem in that the doctors maybe giving wrong advice on a virus they know very little about. They don't really know how the virus spread but they give advice which maybe insufficient on preventing it.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2438276]I think there is another problem in that the doctors maybe giving wrong advice on a virus they know very little about. They don't really know how the virus spread but they give advice which maybe insufficient on preventing it.[/QUOTE]Why would they not know how it spreads? It's been studied since late December. They already have experience with the first SARS virus. With all the good information on the Internet why do people seem to insist on absorbing conspiracy theories and kookery?

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2438282]Why would they not know how it spreads? It's been studied since late December. They already have experience with the first SARS virus. With all the good information on the Internet why do people seem to insist on absorbing conspiracy theories and kookery?[/QUOTE]I just think we don't have enough awareness. What I should have said is the doctors and scientists know some possible ways it can spread, but they may not know all the methods, including variables like distance, and length of time, that it can spread. If they give advice based on what they know, which is a reasonable thing to do, the advice maybe insufficient because of what they don't know.

By the same token, I think it is a mistake to think this is similar to the first SARS virus and treat it the same way

[QUOTE=Lou32;2438065]Seriously, dude?[/QUOTE]Seriously dude! Lol 😅

[QUOTE=Nounce;2438285]I just think we don't have enough awareness. What I should have said is the doctors and scientists know some possible ways it can spread, but they may not know all the methods, including variables like distance, and length of time, that it can spread. If they give advice based on what they know, which is a reasonable thing to do, the advice maybe insufficient because of what they don't know.

By the same token, I think it is a mistake to think this is similar to the first SARS virus and treat it the same way[/QUOTE]I understand what you are saying, there has been rapid spreading of this virus that cannot be explained by "droplet" contamination because many of the people who contract the disease are not around people who are showing symptoms.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2438317]I understand what you are saying, there has been rapid spreading of this virus that cannot be explained by "droplet" contamination because many of the people who contract the disease are not around people who are showing symptoms.[/QUOTE]People still sweat, cough and sneeze without having cold or flu like symptoms.

We're going to see most all the densely populated cities be hit with this virus over the next couple of months, then move on to rural cities. The only way we slow it down is a nationwide lock down coupled with mass testing. Otherwise, it's just going to move from one community to the next and continue to disrupt our lives til there's a vaccine. We lost a lot of time down playing the severity of this virus. Like you said, there will be no reason to risk exposing a countries population to this virus by allowing Americans to enter until you can document you don't have it.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2438023]I am of the opinion that we will be lucky to be get back into Colombia by June 2021 and I hope I am dead wrong on this.

My prediction is that several Countries will not allow visitors into to their Countries until there is a proven vaccine for the virus, no different than the Yellow Fever Vaccination Certificate required by several Countries now.

Hopefully I am wrong on this, and besides a vaccine a miracle cure would be great as well.

I am planning on the long haul for the time being.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2438326]People still sweat, cough and sneeze without having cold or flu like symptoms.[/QUOTE]Apparently speaking spreads droplets as well.

[QUOTE=LeyenLouvain;2438363]Apparently speaking spreads droplets as well.[/QUOTE]They know it survives on surfaces. Especially smooth surfaces like stainless steel, ceramics, etc. For up to 3 days. And through droplets. Hence the 2 meter distance thing. They know the structure of the virus. They know the way it hooks onto "host" cells. They know lots about it. And it can be stopped by not letting it get on your nose, mouth, or eyes (mucous membranes).

What they are not sure of yet is how weather might affect it. There is evidence that warmer and or more humid conditions do not favor it. May reduce the spread on surfaces for example. But if someone is infected and you get it directly (sneeze, cough, touching) then climate probably won't do anything to slow it.

This all has been determined for many months.

The controversy over how deadly it is is a bit misleading. If we assume there are many undiagnosed cases out there. And that seems to be true most places, then the fatality for it is a lower percentage. But there are a corresponding higher number of people. So. 5% of 100,000 is 500. Or 5% of 10,000 is 500. Either way 500 dead. But if the real number is 100,000 or 10,000 what can and should be done might be a bit different. Once we get to 50 to 70 percent of the total population infected then it starts to go away because the virus doesn't find many victims to keep infecting. But saying that mean we still have a long long way to go. New York city and surrounding greater New York have perhaps 20 million people. At. 8% mortality assuming even 50% get infected that will be 160,000 deaths. Health care systems can't handle all the critical cases that go with that number. So many that could normally be saved will die. That's because it will happen all at once basically. And these are the sorts of numbers they are expecting.

We will be spared that in Canada because we are being fanatical about distancing, quarantines, etc.

[QUOTE=Judd;2438359]We're going to see most all the densely populated cities be hit with this virus over the next couple of months, then move on to rural cities. The only way we slow it down is a nationwide lock down coupled with mass testing. Otherwise, it's just going to move from one community to the next and continue to disrupt our lives til there's a vaccine. We lost a lot of time down playing the severity of this virus. Like you said, there will be no reason to risk exposing a countries population to this virus by allowing Americans to enter until you can document you don't have it.[/QUOTE]I read this morning that several small ski resort towns in the USA have been hit fairly hard on a per capita basis. It appears that places that have higher than average transient populations and greater wealth are the most at risk.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2438371] Once we get to 50 to 70 percent of the total population infected then it starts to go away because the virus doesn't find many victims to keep infecting.
[/QUOTE]I thought that too, but that is not what has happened. Look at the Johns Hopkins map: [URL]https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html[/URL].

You look at the misleading red and you would think everyone in America has the virus but that is not the case.

The more interesting and relevant data is in the bottom right corner. Click on new cases and you will see graphs in yellow. Look at the shapes on the graph of new cases, and you can see what happened in places that have recovered: South Korea, China, Thailand, Taiwan.

In all those countries, you seek peak cases and then a downward sloping of new cases. You are actually seeing the downward sloping already in Colombia and Peru and peaking in Brazil, Panama, and Ecuador. The exponential growth phase is not happening anymore in South America. Even in the USA, the exponential growth is not happening if you look at the graphs.

It looks like the virus is going to burn itself out in May or April. Whether it comes back this fall though is up in the air.

I post these numbers with a caveat; as most people know there are nowhere near enough people getting tested to know actual numbers.

This article title says it all "Coronavirus Is Hiding in Plain Sight" In it is this statement: "If we have 3,500 confirmed cases in the USA, you might be looking at 35,000 in reality," said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University and the senior author of the new report, which was posted by the journal Science. [URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/health/coronavirus-statistics-undetected.html[/URL].

Because I have a horrible memory I started taking screen shots of the John Hopkins University to compare days, today I saw the most relevant thing to how the numbers are growing. The screen shot I took on five days ago on 3/23 shows just under 44,000 cases. I took another screen shot in 3/26 that showed This morning I took a screen shot that showed over 62,000 around an 18,000 increase in about 43 hours. Flash forward 3/28 I took a screen shot at 5 am and it said 104,837 - I took another on 3/28 at 9:30 pm and it said 122,666 that is an almost 18,000 increase in the span of 16 hours.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2438420]I post these numbers with a caveat; as most people know there are nowhere near enough people getting tested to know actual numbers.

This article title says it all "Coronavirus Is Hiding in Plain Sight" In it is this statement: "If we have 3,500 confirmed cases in the USA, you might be looking at 35,000 in reality," said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University and the senior author of the new report, which was posted by the journal Science. [URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/health/coronavirus-statistics-undetected.html[/URL].
[/QUOTE]I received a message the other day that someone went to the same school as me died from the virus. He and his wife went to a class reunion last month with classmates from different states and different counties. Some of them went to Europe after the reunion. Late last month he went to see his doctor because of a fever. The doctor told him it was a flu. He went on his daily life as usual, went to church and did all the things he normally do. He was told a few days later to get a test by his classmate oversea who was tested positive for the coronavirus. He and his wife both tested positive and now he is dead.

CDC has an important job to do and they failed this time. If they had delivered test kits that worked or try to get it from elsewhere after the failure quickly , I think it would have given us a few weeks head start.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2438317]I understand what you are saying, there has been rapid spreading of this virus that cannot be explained by "droplet" contamination because many of the people who contract the disease are not around people who are showing symptoms.[/QUOTE]Can't remember where I saw it, but saw some report that some country was finding half of the people testing positive were asymptomatic.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2438371]They know it survives on surfaces. Especially smooth surfaces like stainless steel, ceramics, etc. For up to 3 days. And through droplets. Hence the 2 meter distance thing. They know the structure of the virus. They know the way it hooks onto "host" cells. They know lots about it. And it can be stopped by not letting it get on your nose, mouth, or eyes (mucous membranes).

What they are not sure of yet is how weather might affect it. There is evidence that warmer and or more humid conditions do not favor it. May reduce the spread on surfaces for example. But if someone is infected and you get it directly (sneeze, cough, touching) then climate probably won't do anything to slow it.

This all has been determined for many months.

The controversy over how deadly it is is a bit misleading. If we assume there are many undiagnosed cases out there. And that seems to be true most places, then the fatality for it is a lower percentage. But there are a corresponding higher number of people. So. 5% of 100,000 is 500. Or 5% of 10,000 is 500. Either way 500 dead. But if the real number is 100,000 or 10,000 what can and should be done might be a bit different. Once we get to 50 to 70 percent of the total population infected then it starts to go away because the virus doesn't find many victims to keep infecting. But saying that mean we still have a long long way to go. New York city and surrounding greater New York have perhaps 20 million people.[/QUOTE]The other side of the controversy over mortality rate, are deaths which are not attributed to the virus. It's not a complete offset, but it shows the inaccuracy isn't entirely one-sided.

Yep. Canada is being fanatical about it. Even Tim Hortons is empty.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2438317]I understand what you are saying, there has been rapid spreading of this virus that cannot be explained by "droplet" contamination because many of the people who contract the disease are not around people who are showing symptoms.[/QUOTE]Research suggests it lives for up to 72 hours on hard, shiny surfaces. Also, the scientists have said that "droplets" include microscopic fluids we exhale just from talking that can carry in the air for up to nearly 8 meters.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2438448]I received a message the other day that someone went to the same school as me died from the virus. He and his wife went to a class reunion last month with classmates from different states and different counties. Some of them went to Europe after the reunion. Late last month he went to see his doctor because of a fever. The doctor told him it was a flu. He went on his daily life as usual, went to church and did all the things he normally do. He was told a few days later to get a test by his classmate oversea who was tested positive for the coronavirus. He and his wife both tested positive and now he is dead.

CDC has an important job to do and they failed this time. If they had delivered test kits that worked or try to get it from elsewhere after the failure quickly , I think it would have given us a few weeks head start.[/QUOTE]Sorry about your classmate. He was an innocent victim. Can you imagine how many people he may have infected and how many more those people may have infected unknowingly? That's how this thing travels.

Plenty of blame to go around but rather than everyone blaming someone else, they should spend more time containing and solving the virus. This is a medical problem that needs to be solved by the medical and scientific experts and not half assed phony politicians. Problem here is that the politicos control everything and make everything political.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2438448] CDC has an important job to do and they failed this time. If they had delivered test kits that worked or try to get it from elsewhere after the failure quickly , I think it would have given us a few weeks head start.[/QUOTE]Unfortunately you cannot solely blame the CDC for this, several other "parties" leading up to this debacle where involved and nobody could of ever predicted a virus like this one, so at this point it's a total waste of time to dwell on what happened and the serious mis-steps taken.

Some time in the future the "historians" will be better be able to articulate what happened, and perhaps how it could of been handled differently. What is obvious though is that the Asian and Communist Countries have done a much better job in handling the virus based on past experience and authoritarian rule. Returning to Colombia is on my mind every waking day, and I miss all my El Centro "wives" and I am afraid many of us will not be getting back there anytime soon, at least until there is a proven vaccine and hopefully a cure is developed.

How would test kits stop the spread of the virus? Whatever the test result, experts are telling people to stay away from each other and wash your hands. I guess some people need to see a positive result to comply with the expert advice?

A vaccine would make a much more significant impact I think all would agree.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2438448]I received a message the other day that someone went to the same school as me died from the virus. He and his wife went to a class reunion last month with classmates from different states and different counties. Some of them went to Europe after the reunion. Late last month he went to see his doctor because of a fever. The doctor told him it was a flu. He went on his daily life as usual, went to church and did all the things he normally do. He was told a few days later to get a test by his classmate oversea who was tested positive for the coronavirus. He and his wife both tested positive and now he is dead.

CDC has an important job to do and they failed this time. If they had delivered test kits that worked or try to get it from elsewhere after the failure quickly , I think it would have given us a few weeks head start.[/QUOTE]

I remember reading a newspaper article that focused on an Austrian ski resort as a possible source of several Coronavirus outbreaks around Europe. The story mentioned the wealth and movement factors you cited.

[QUOTE=BigBossMan;2438372]I read this morning that several small ski resort towns in the USA have been hit fairly hard on a per capita basis. It appears that places that have higher than average transient populations and greater wealth are the most at risk.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2438565]Unfortunately you cannot solely blame the CDC for this, several other "parties" leading up to this debacle where involved and nobody could of ever predicted a virus like this one, so at this point it's a total waste of time to dwell on what happened and the serious mis-steps taken.

Some time in the future the "historians" will be better be able to articulate what happened, and perhaps how it could of been handled differently. What is obvious though is that the Asian and Communist Countries have done a much better job in handling the virus based on past experience and authoritarian rule. Returning to Colombia is on my mind every waking day, and I miss all my El Centro "wives" and I am afraid many of us will not be getting back there anytime soon, at least until there is a proven vaccine and hopefully a cure is developed.[/QUOTE]I think one can not say the test kit is bad because of party affiliation. I don't want to make my post political so I don't want to talk about the other reasons you mentioned.

I read that South Korea government gathers their private companies together on a mission to develop their test kit. It took only a very short time. I remember the length of time but I don't want to put it here as I don't have the link to it

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2438571]How would test kits stop the spread of the virus? Whatever the test result, experts are telling people to stay away from each other and wash your hands. I guess some people need to see a positive result to comply with the expert advice?
[/QUOTE]People would know the seriousness if tests were available. It will be more difficult for people to downplay the issue. It was mentioned in someon's post. That is the reason I wrote about it. If you have read my post, the patients received news from another person oversea. By this time, he already been to church, restaurants, supermarkets.

Also these

[url]https://mynorthwest.com/1758762/coronavirus-washington-seattle-flu-study/?[/url]
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html[/url]

[QUOTE=Nounce;2438662]I think one can not say the test kit is bad because of party affiliation. I don't want to make my post political so I don't want to talk about the other reasons you mentioned.

I read that South Korea government gathers their private companies together on a mission to develop their test kit. It took only a very short time. I remember the length of time but I don't want to put it here as I don't have the link to it[/QUOTE]The Asian Countries have their shit together, a perfect example is Taiwan, and I had good time with the Chinese women there as well!

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2438575]I remember reading a newspaper article that focused on an Austrian ski resort as a possible source of several Coronavirus outbreaks around Europe. The story mentioned the wealth and movement factors you cited.[/QUOTE]The news said it was a British citizen who was infected during a conference in Singapore. He later went to Austria to ski.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2438675]The news said it was a British citizen who was infected during a conference in Singapore. He later went to Austria to ski.[/QUOTE]There are many vectors. One of the now famous ones was in South Korea. An infected person was at a large mega-church conference and infected many who in turn infected many. And in Canada a dental conference and a doctors hockey tournament have infected many.

I think the testing failure was a big thing (US), but the far bigger failure is the failure to get people to isolate. Assume everyone may have it so isolate. And those that have it either recover or die. As long as they are not infecting anyone else the virus dies. It's a very simple concept. Very devastating economically but the only way to stop this thing. And that's basically what worked in China. And relentless contact tracing and testing has helped some countries. But not once it has really gotten away. And it has gotten away in the USA. No amount of testing will change anything now. Not until you get people to stop spreading it.

Testing still is important for health care workers. Don't get me wrong. You need to know that they are not spreading it. And when they have it they need to go home. But for the general population right now testing is irrelevant. In the future, yes. Some sort of testing may be needed to know who has had it and who hasn't. But that is a different test anyway.

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2438881] It won't change anything if every single American were tested. In fact, it would increase infections because even home testing kits that are mailed can spread the virus. It's all about isolation.[/QUOTE]If you could test everyone, wouldn't it be better to only isolate those tested positive?

[QUOTE=Nounce;2438939]If you could test everyone, wouldn't it be better to only isolate those tested positive?[/QUOTE]If you could test everyone at the same time. Perhaps. But that cannot be done. So with people circulating there are people spreading it.

I do think that, if it were possible, regular testing of all of the people that provide essential services would be a good thing. But again, that seems to be a ways off.

And essential services are a lot of people. Truckers, health care workers, sanitation, first responders, grocery store workers and all the supply chain for all of the above.

And, as time goes on, if seralogical studies prove it to be the case, all of those who have immunity can go out and about to help re-start the economy.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2438939]If you could test everyone, wouldn't it be better to only isolate those tested positive?[/QUOTE]It's the other way around. If people test positive for the antibodies they are immune and can go out. As long as they remain asymptomatic they are fine.

It's people who can't fight the virus that need to be isolated.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2438969]It's the other way around. If people test positive for the antibodies they are immune and can go out. As long as they remain asymptomatic they are fine.

It's people who can't fight the virus that need to be isolated.[/QUOTE]Maybe people who have it should be isolated and only a test will tell. Asymptomatic people can spread it too so not a good idea to let them go out and keep spreading it unless it's still a hoax, a world wide hoax now.

So how do you know someone can't fight it? It's a small percentage who can't fight it. Everyone who tests positive must be isolated and treated if deemed necessary by a real doctor. Isolation can be at home or a facility depending.

I just saw what great hands we are all in. The Pillow Guy is on the team now! Where's Kanye and McMahon?

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2438969]It's the other way around. If people test positive for the antibodies they are immune and can go out. As long as they remain asymptomatic they are fine.

It's people who can't fight the virus that need to be isolated.[/QUOTE]Besides, it's important to know who has the antibodies since their "convalescence serum" can be used to help sick people fend off the virus.

I would recommend listening to interviews with former FDA Commisioner, Dr. Scott Gottlieb. He seems to be providing the most pertinent information as to why we need to continue testing, the impact the virus will have on our health care system, and the current trajectory of it. Another Dr. That came up on my YouTube feed was Dr. Duc C Vuong. He did a video explaining how this virus ends up killing a person when the infection becomes serious. In a subsequent video, he explained how our death rate will, unfortunately, increase even as the # of infections increase. Conventional wisdom out there is the death rate will go down since we're testing at a much higher rate than a couple of weeks ago.

Stay Safe!

This drug has been mentioned in this thread so much I thought this announcement should be posted here.

FDA Approves Anti-Malarial Drugs Chloroquine And Hydroxychloroquine For Emergency Coronavirus Treatment.

[URL]https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/03/30/fda-approves-anti-malarial-drugs-chloroquine-and-hydroxychloroquine-for-emergency-coronavirus-treatment/[/URL]#312 ecf135 e5 d.

[QUOTE=Judd;2438997]I would recommend listening to interviews with former FDA Commisioner, Dr. Scott Gottlieb. He seems to be providing the most pertinent information as to why we need to continue testing, the impact the virus will have on our health care system, and the current trajectory of it. Another Dr. That came up on my YouTube feed was Dr. Duc C Vuong. He did a video explaining how this virus ends up killing a person when the infection becomes serious. In a subsequent video, he explained how our death rate will, unfortunately, increase even as the # of infections increase. Conventional wisdom out there is the death rate will go down since we're testing at a much higher rate than a couple of weeks ago.

Stay Safe![/QUOTE]The death rate goes up because it takes 2 or 3 weeks from getting it to finally dying. For some. For the older people it can be quicker. But the death rate will spike a lot because we know there are a lot of people that have just come down with the virus. So if there's a million people that have the virus. Active cases. About 10,000 will eventually die. So if your testing picks up and you identify more, then at some point it will look like 1% or. 8%. But there is a 2 to 3 week lag.
Unfortunately the deaths are just getting going. Same sort of curve. Just 2 to 3 weeks behind the infection curve.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2439248]This drug has been mentioned in this thread so much I thought this announcement should be posted here.

FDA Approves Anti-Malarial Drugs Chloroquine And Hydroxychloroquine For Emergency Coronavirus Treatment.

[URL]https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/03/30/fda-approves-anti-malarial-drugs-chloroquine-and-hydroxychloroquine-for-emergency-coronavirus-treatment/[/URL]#312 ecf135 e5 d.[/QUOTE]It's not a cure. There hasn't been any evidence to show this. There's some data but they need to do proper trials with a control group.

Correct. Dr. Vuong explained the delays in deaths is linked to Ventilator usage. He said around 20% of those infected will need hospital care. Things go South when a patient develops pneumonia from this infection. Their body starts to "Tire Out" from Breathing difficulty. At that point, they will need to be put on a ventilator for around 10-20 days. Once on a breathing apparatus, the survival rate is not good. He says it's around 20% to 25%.

If you are working in the hospitals right now, I want to thank you for being selfless, and helping to save lives!

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2439279]The death rate goes up because it takes 2 or 3 weeks from getting it to finally dying. For some. For the older people it can be quicker. But the death rate will spike a lot because we know there are a lot of people that have just come down with the virus. So if there's a million people that have the virus. Active cases. About 10,000 will eventually die. So if your testing picks up and you identify more, then at some point it will look like 1% or. 8%. But there is a 2 to 3 week lag.
Unfortunately the deaths are just getting going. Same sort of curve. Just 2 to 3 weeks behind the infection curve.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2439315]It's not a cure. There hasn't been any evidence to show this. There's some data but they need to do proper trials with a control group.[/QUOTE]I agree with you I just wanted to post it the FDA had approved it for this use.

"New York moved to begin trials Tuesday, procuring 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine and 750,000 doses of chloroquine, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said. In addition, Bayer, the drug maker, has donated 3 million doses of Resochin, its brand name for chloroquine, to the federal government. ".

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/health/chloroquine-hydroxycholoroquine-drugs-explained/index.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2439315]It's not a cure. There hasn't been any evidence to show this. There's some data but they need to do proper trials with a control group.[/QUOTE]
There is no proof but no one has proved it is not effective either.

I think it is a French doctor who has a new study out with about 80 patients. He said a doctor's job is to save lives or something alone that line so he can not do a control group. Italy health insurance now will pay for this medicine.

Cartagena's first case was apparently from a cruise ship passenger. Very kind of Colombia to accept bringing in a foreigner with the virus.

[URL]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8174309/British-coronavirus-survivor-85-receives-emotional-send-medics-Columbian-hospital.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2439279]The death rate goes up because it takes 2 or 3 weeks from getting it to finally dying. For some. For the older people it can be quicker. But the death rate will spike a lot because we know there are a lot of people that have just come down with the virus.[/QUOTE]I know what you mean, but you are using the term death rate and death percentage like they are interchangeable. The percentage death rate will go down with more testing as asymptomatic or barely symptomatic people will be tested. The number of dead has nowhere to go but up.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2439279]So if there's a million people that have the virus. Active cases. About 10,000 will eventually die. So if your testing picks up and you identify more, then at some point it will look like 1% or. 8%.[/QUOTE]I agree that it does seem about a 1% death rate. The thing is how do you get to a million? We are at 200,000 now. We are not seeing the exponential rate pf growth like there was. The last five days have been at 20,000 new cases or so. That would be 40 more days at 20,000 new cases a day or this just being a lull before the explosion.

If you have a 1% death rate, you have to get to 2. 4 million before Covid is worse than this year's flu and you have to get to 8 million to get to the flu in 2017. To get that, we would need a pattern not seen in China, Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore or South Korea. Even Italy has gone from its plateau to a downward trend. There is no pattern in any country where I have seen that there is a plateau and then a rapid rise upwards.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2439386]I know what you mean, but you are using the term death rate and death percentage like they are interchangeable. The percentage death rate will go down with more testing as asymptomatic or barely symptomatic people will be tested. The number of dead has nowhere to go but up.

I agree that it does seem about a 1% death rate. The thing is how do you get to a million? We are at 200,000 now. We are not seeing the exponential rate pf growth like there was. The last five days have been at 20,000 new cases or so. That would be 40 more days at 20,000 new cases a day or this just being a lull before the explosion.

If you have a 1% death rate, you have to get to 2. 4 million before Covid is worse than this year's flu and you have to get to 8 million to get to the flu in 2017. To get that, we would need a pattern not seen in China, Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore or South Korea. Even Italy has gone from its plateau to a downward trend. There is no pattern in any country where I have seen that there is a plateau and then a rapid rise upwards.[/QUOTE]The flu numbers I heard were 50,000 worldwide per year. On average. But there are different numbers floating around. The thing with flu though is that it is spread out through the whole year. It never totally goes away and just circulates around the world. So you would rarely have a big impact in a particular location at a particular time. This one is hitting all at once.

As for the numbers. Yes, hopefully if the number stays at around 20,000 new cases per day in US, and levels off in other places, it will not get to the millions of cases quickly. But last week the numbers of new cases per day were growing exponentially as well. Perhaps with testing, perhaps the spread, perhaps both. And hopefully that has changed.

I know that in many places though, including Canada, the numbers of cases were not just those that had been tested, but also those who were presumed to have it based on symptoms. We also had a higher percentage of testing than the US early on, and still, hence changes in number being tested are probably not influencing our numbers a lot.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2439379]I was actually talking about two failures of the Trump adminstration, one of the things Trump fixed and the other I hope he does. Do you remember when Obama called a police office stupid for arresting a Harvard professor? He, the professor, and the police officer had a beer at the White House. I thought the dumbest thing I ever heard was a Republican making fun of Obama's choice of beer, Bud Light. I was like is this what we have come to? Really?

But that was nothing, Trump derangement syndrome is at a whole other level. When you talk to people with TDS like you two, anything less than Trump is worse than Hitler and YOU get criticized.

And this is why Trump keeps beating Democrats again and again because when you make a guy who is not that bad out to be soooo evil if he is not that evil, you look like fools. Trump calls Joe Biden Sleepy Joe, and Biden obliges him by taking a nap during a crisis that has killed more people than 9-11. THIS is the alternative? So Trump's approval ratings hit record highs even when he and his administration have made so many errors.

The irony about this virus and what the Democrats have done is that they have portrayed Trump as stupid not listening to his experts and blamed him for all the deaths that have occurred. Well, if you are going to give him the blame then you have to give him the credit when things are not that bad. IMO the two medical experts came out and said that there are going to be between 100,000 and 200,000 dead for two reasons: one is to get people to stay strong on the isolation. That is the good. The second is to come up with a number high enough that Trump can brag about if that death total is not reached. That is the bad/political. But with the latest data, no way in hell we are getting to that number..[/QUOTE]I have been a loyal Trump supporter since "The Art of the Deal". But I am changing my mind lately over his induced panic and dishonesty over the Corona scam. He is just like another pol now to me. He lied to the American People when he promised never to do that. It's influenza, get over it.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2439386]I know what you mean, but you are using the term death rate and death percentage like they are interchangeable. The percentage death rate will go down with more testing as asymptomatic or barely symptomatic people will be tested. The number of dead has nowhere to go but up.

I agree that it does seem about a 1% death rate. The thing is how do you get to a million? We are at 200,000 now. We are not seeing the exponential rate pf growth like there was. The last five days have been at 20,000 new cases or so. That would be 40 more days at 20,000 new cases a day or this just being a lull before the explosion.

If you have a 1% death rate, you have to get to 2. 4 million before Covid is worse than this year's flu and you have to get to 8 million to get to the flu in 2017. To get that, we would need a pattern not seen in China, Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore or South Korea. Even Italy has gone from its plateau to a downward trend. There is no pattern in any country where I have seen that there is a plateau and then a rapid rise upwards.[/QUOTE]What's your take on the Ecuador vs Colombia situation?

Ecuador 2372 cases, 79 deaths, population 17 million.

Colombia 906 cases, 16 deaths, population 49 million.

I haven't seen anything on Ecuadorian response, but have kept up to date on Colombia.

Another thing I'll just note:

4.3% of the world population lives in the US.

22% of known cases are in the US.

Nearly 10% of worldwide deaths are in the US.

[QUOTE=TurdyCurdyOne;2439421]I have been a loyal Trump supporter since "The Art of the Deal". But I am changing my mind lately over his induced panic and dishonesty over the Corona scam. He is just like another pol now to me. He lied to the American People when he promised never to do that. It's influenza, get over it.[/QUOTE]Hey, I get it. Do you know the four senators who got spooked and sold their stocks? They seemed to have been the only ones who really got what was going on. Trump was saying what he hoped would happen versus what did. The problem is that Democrats, especially New York ones, may have been worse than Trump. So what is the alternative?

In 2008, Obama got the financial crisis way better than McCain or GW Bush did. Those two were truly clueless. I would love to vote for someone who really understood what was happening over Trump but Joe Biden? Come on.

When Michael Lewis went to write the Big Short, he wasn't interested in people who knew. He was interested in people who knew, followed their convictions, and made money off the meltdown. Anyone who had the brains to do that with this crisis is someone I would like to see in office.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2439438]What's your take on the Ecuador vs Colombia situation?

Ecuador 2372 cases, 79 deaths, population 17 million.

Colombia 906 cases, 16 deaths, population 49 million.

I haven't seen anything on Ecuadorian response, but have kept up to date on Colombia.[/QUOTE]When you go on climate, international travel to a region, population density, and response to quarantine as the expected variables, Colombia has unfolded exactly as I expected. Ecuador has not. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. But it is an outlier country no doubt.

[QUOTE=TurdyCurdyOne;2439421]I have been a loyal Trump supporter since "The Art of the Deal". But I am changing my mind lately over his induced panic and dishonesty over the Corona scam. He is just like another pol now to me. He lied to the American People when he promised never to do that. It's influenza, get over it.[/QUOTE]Have you ever had Covid-19?

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2439438]What's your take on the Ecuador vs Colombia situation?

Ecuador 2372 cases, 79 deaths, population 17 million.

Colombia 906 cases, 16 deaths, population 49 million.

I haven't seen anything on Ecuadorian response, but have kept up to date on Colombia.

Another thing I'll just note:

4.3% of the world population lives in the US.

22% of known cases are in the US.

Nearly 10% of worldwide deaths are in the US.[/QUOTE]Key words - "known cases". We don't have good info on what's happening in some countries, most notably China.

[QUOTE=Combo;2439524]Key words - "known cases". We don't have good info on what's happening in some countries, most notably China.[/QUOTE]And what difference does it make what's happening in China. What's happening in the US is clear. Pandemic. I'm no epidemiologist but I can do simple math.

And it didn't have to be that way. And those that say it's just flu. Perhaps the 1918 flu, but no other flu has killed so many so quickly and spread like this.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2439528]I can do simple math.

And it didn't have to be that way. And those that say it's just flu. Perhaps the 1918 flu, but no other flu has killed so many so quickly and spread like this.[/QUOTE]It has NOT killed that many. This flu season was 24000.2017 was 80,000 in the USA. We are nowhere near that number.

I am not sure if there has been a virus this contagious before, but the human response to it has been dramatic as well.

To put things in perspective, about two billion people in the world have tuberculosis. 170,000 people die a year or about 5000 a day die from it: [URL]https://www.who.int/health-topics/tuberculosis[/URL]#tab=tab_1.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2439528]And what difference does it make what's happening in China. What's happening in the US is clear. Pandemic. I'm no epidemiologist but I can do simple math.

And it didn't have to be that way. And those that say it's just flu. Perhaps the 1918 flu, but no other flu has killed so many so quickly and spread like this.[/QUOTE]What would you have done to change "that way"?

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2439438]What's your take on the Ecuador vs Colombia situation?

Ecuador 2372 cases, 79 deaths, population 17 million.

Colombia 906 cases, 16 deaths, population 49 million.


4.3% of the world population lives in the US.

22% of known cases are in the US.

Nearly 10% of worldwide deaths are in the US.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2439484]When you go on climate, international travel to a region, population density, and response to quarantine as the expected variables, Colombia has unfolded exactly as I expected. Ecuador has not. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. But it is an outlier country no doubt.[/QUOTE]I agree with Elvis about the two factors that explain the cases in USA. More people travel to the USA and the population density of the areas. Especially NYC where 1/3 of USA cases are really. If you look at the section of the graphic I include all you have to do is add Spain and Italy and there are more cases in these combined countries than USA (I know its been there longer but their curve has not flattened) The current population of Italy is 60,483,53 , population of Spain is 46,750,337, population of the United States of America is 330,520,584. Their combined population is a third of ours. I wonder if that is our future. In the amount of time that is the difference in time between when it hit them and when it hit us are our numbers going to triple?

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2439549]What would you have done to change "that way"?[/QUOTE]Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. The US must have thought that it wasn't really going to happen. I'm not sure. They were certainly getting mixed messages from the leaders. Federal and some state leaders. They didn't do the things that other countries did, such as restricting movement of people, getting people to stay at home, etc. Actually, even in the US Washington State and California have handled it a lot better.

There was an animated graph floating around comparing the increase in cases for many countries on a day to day basis. Starting at a threshold of 100 cases. The US was way down the list. Started to move up. And then accelerated moving up past other countries until now it is a way past any other country. First one to hit 1000 deaths in a day.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2439569]Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. The US must have thought that it wasn't really going to happen. I'm not sure. [/QUOTE]California does not wait for the federal government to take action. Once the high tech companies found one infection. The companies shutdown the whole campus early on, followed by cites, counties, state last.

I don't understand the reasoning behind some other state officials who balk at quarantine or threaten to sue others when other states want to block people traveling from the highly infected state.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2439544]It has NOT killed that many. This flu season was 24000.2017 was 80,000 in the USA. We are nowhere near that number.

I am not sure if there has been a virus this contagious before, but the human response to it has been dramatic as well.

To put things in perspective, about two billion people in the world have tuberculosis. 170,000 people die a year or about 5000 a day die from it: [URL]https://www.who.int/health-topics/tuberculosis[/URL]#tab=tab_1.[/QUOTE]I thought we'd already been over these things.

24,000 flu deaths out of 38-54 million cases.

5,000 coronavirus deaths out of 200,000 cases. Assuming we hit 1 million known cases in the US, number of coronavirus deaths will surpass flu deaths. If we matched the number of flu cases, coronavirus would cause nearly 40 times as many deaths. All based on currently available data.

To put things in perspective with tuberculosis:

87% of new Tuberculosis cases occur in 8 countries: India, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South Africa. The US only has around 9,000 cases of Tuberculosis per year and that number has dropped every year since 1992.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2439620]California does not wait for the federal government to take action. Once the high tech companies found one infection. The companies shutdown the whole campus early on, followed by cites, counties, state last.

I don't understand the reasoning behind some other state officials who balk at quarantine or threaten to sue others when other states want to block people traveling from the highly infected state.[/QUOTE]They don't care. They would sooner kill a grandma than shut down their glorious economy. That's really what it is.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2439482]Hey, I get it. Do you know the four senators who got spooked and sold their stocks? They seemed to have been the only ones who really got what was going on.

When Michael Lewis went to write the Big Short, he wasn't interested in people who knew. He was interested in people who knew, followed their convictions, and made money off the meltdown. Anyone who had the brains to do that with this crisis is someone I would like to see in office.[/QUOTE]I hope I am misunderstanding, but Diane Feinstein for president?

[QUOTE=Nounce;2439620]California does not wait for the federal government to take action. Once the high tech companies found one infection. The companies shutdown the whole campus early on, followed by cites, counties, state last.

I don't understand the reasoning behind some other state officials who balk at quarantine or threaten to sue others when other states want to block people traveling from the highly infected state.[/QUOTE]It boils down to politics mostly, if you look at the red states versus the blue states, and the politicians in charge, generally the blue states, such as California, instigated lock down measures sooner than the red states.

I could say a lot more on this topic, but am going to stay out of the political fray.

It's all water under the bridge now, and with the USA now being the number 1 with cases and deaths on the horizon, it will be a long time before Americans are allowed back into Colombia, or other Countries short of a vaccine like a Yellow Fever Certificate but for the Coorona-Virus, or some other certification, and / or being quarantined.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2439569]Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. The US must have thought that it wasn't really going to happen. I'm not sure. They were certainly getting mixed messages from the leaders. Federal and some state leaders. They didn't do the things that other countries did, such as restricting movement of people, getting people to stay at home, etc. Actually, even in the US Washington State and California have handled it a lot better. ...[/QUOTE]Attempting to restrict the movement of people would more than likely have been unsuccessful. Look how quickly Gov. Cuomo threatened to sue other states when they suggested barring people from New York from entering their states.

South Korea was probably the most efficient handling the virus early on, but their first case was almost the same day as the first case in the US. The US did not have the South Korean response to learn from. Also, geographically, South Korea does not face the same challenges as the US. South Korea had dealt with an outbreak of the MERS virus, so they knew what to do, and they had supplies in stock.

If the New York City metropolitan area totals were eliminated from the US totals, the number of deaths per one million population in the US would be very close to the rest of the world. I have no idea what happened in the NYC area that caused the situation they are in.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2439722]Attempting to restrict the movement of people would more than likely have been unsuccessful. Look how quickly Gov. Cuomo threatened to sue other states when they suggested barring people from New York from entering their states.

South Korea was probably the most efficient handling the virus early on, but their first case was almost the same day as the first case in the US. The US did not have the South Korean response to learn from. Also, geographically, South Korea does not face the same challenges as the US. South Korea had dealt with an outbreak of the MERS virus, so they knew what to do, and they had supplies in stock.

If the New York City metropolitan area totals were eliminated from the US totals, the number of deaths per one million population in the US would be very close to the rest of the world. I have no idea what happened in the NYC area that caused the situation they are in.[/QUOTE]I recall hearing the WHO. World Health Organization. Begging countries to take it seriously sometime in early February. And by taking it seriously they were referring to using the things that China was already using. Basically stopping movement of people and stopping people from getting together. Even though the thing had gotten out of hand in Wuhan and that area they were able to slow it and stop it. Albeit with much more strict regulation and enforcement than might be tolerated in other places.

Anyway. Just saying. Most of what we know now was known in mid to late January by every national government in the world. It's just that most chose not to act on it, basically for all the same sorts of reasons. And then some moved quicker than others when it became obvious it was spreading worldwide.

As far as what is happening in New York compared to the rest of the country. I think its just a bit further up the curve time wise. The same rates of increase are happening in other parts of the US, with the exception of Washington and California who did take a more aggressive approach.

And deaths per million, or deaths compared to those infected. The numbers are not in yet. People take longer to die than to catch this thing.

[QUOTE=ChuchoLoco;2439704]I hope I am misunderstanding, but Diane Feinstein for president?[/QUOTE]It depends. If she just sold her stock out of fear, which is all she has reported to have done, then no, she is just gutless. If she went short, then I would be impressed and say hell yes! LOL.

I really hope there is a break before fall. The economic damage will be much less lengthy if that happens. The latest statistics on Caracol news are encouraging for Colombia at least. It's so much better than the US / Europe numbers. As everyone expected, the number of confirmed cases is growing (by about 50% since last week), but the number of recoveries is outpacing both the number of new cases and the number of deaths:

Total de casos en Colombia.

Contagiados. 1161.

Fallecidos. 19.

Recuperados. 55.

I discovered this running statistic on their web site just today:

[URL]https://noticias.caracoltv.com/[/URL]

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2439710]It boils down to politics mostly, if you look at the red states versus the blue states, and the politicians in charge, generally the blue states, such as California, instigated lock down measures sooner than the red states.

I could say a lot more on this topic, but am going to stay out of the political fray.

It's all water under the bridge now, and with the USA now being the number 1 with cases and deaths on the horizon, it will be a long time before Americans are allowed back into Colombia, or other Countries short of a vaccine like a Yellow Fever Certificate but for the Coorona-Virus, or some other certification, and / or being quarantined.[/QUOTE]

I've heard various things about the climate factor. Guayaquil and the surrounding region has a much warmer tropical climate compared to Quito and Cuenca. Is that why the virus hotspot is there?

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2439484]When you go on climate, international travel to a region, population density, and response to quarantine as the expected variables, Colombia has unfolded exactly as I expected. Ecuador has not. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. But it is an outlier country no doubt.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2439825]It depends. If she just sold her stock out of fear, which is all she has reported to have done, then no, she is just gutless. If she went short, then I would be impressed and say hell yes! LOL.[/QUOTE]Your leaders, instead of preparing the nation for this pandemic, profited, and kept silent.


[QUOTE=Zeos1;2439764]I recall hearing the WHO. World Health Organization. Begging countries to take it seriously sometime in early February. [/QUOTE]

They declared it a pandemic in early March. I was watching that on TV with my chica blowing me in Cartagena. She didn't take it seriously. Then all of a sudden a week later when I got back she was sending me information from UNICEF.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2439841]Your leaders, instead of preparing the nation for this pandemic, profited, and kept silent..[/QUOTE]From what I have Virus Vulture Kelly Lauffler, sold stock, took short & options positions. Short & options are high risk / high reward, but if you already know what is going to happen then they are not very high risk.

[URL]https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a32005274/kelly-loeffler-coronavirus-stock-trades-richard-burr/[/URL]

The largest transactions — and the most politically problematic — involve $18.7 million in sales of Intercontinental Exchange stock in three separate deals dated Feb. 26 and March 11. Loeffler is a former executive with ICE, and her husband, Jeff Sprecher, is the CEO of the company, which owns the New York Stock Exchange among other financial marketplaces.

During the same time period reflected on reports filed late Tuesday, the couple also sold shares in retail stores such as Lululemon and T. J. Maxx and invested in a company that makes COVID-19 protective garments.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2439764]... And deaths per million, or deaths compared to those infected. The numbers are not in yet. People take longer to die than to catch this thing.[/QUOTE]The US is in the same boat as the rest of the world. The final numbers are not in from anywhere. Tell me the fallacy of comparing current numbers from the US to current numbers from all other countries. The US was in the first wave of countries to get the virus (after China), about the same time as some other countries, and earlier than many countries. The first detected case in the US was nine days before the first detected case in Italy.

Remember, your statement "Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. " I am still looking for most countries that handled it better.

I don't want to be augmentative, just trying to understand your train of thought.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2439620]California does not wait for the federal government to take action. Once the high tech companies found one infection. The companies shutdown the whole campus early on, followed by cites, counties, state last.

I don't understand the reasoning behind some other state officials who balk at quarantine or threaten to sue others when other states want to block people traveling from the highly infected state.[/QUOTE]Most regional entities did not wait for federal leadership on this because in the beginning there was none. That is not a political statement that is a fact. Most states (Democrat and Republican) swung into action immediately.

In my opinion Florida Governor may be the worst offender. They had spring break partiers from all over the eastern United States down there and refused to do anything to promote social distancing. Then these idiots exported it across half the country at least.

This video is the coolest because it shows them literally tracking the people from one beach and remember that this is just one beach!

[URL]https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/did-floridas-spring-breakers-spread-coronavirus-across-the-country/[/URL]

[URL]https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/spring-breakers-may-have-taken-coronavirus-from-south-florida-across-u-s-data-firm/2213356/[/URL]

[URL]https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/21/spring-breakers-coronavirus-140609[/URL]

The moron in this video summed up their thinking -.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa4i9Ap6dCg[/URL]

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2439710]It boils down to politics mostly, if you look at the red states versus the blue states, and the politicians in charge, generally the blue states, such as California, instigated lock down measures sooner than the red states. ...[/QUOTE]If that's true, then lock downs don't appear to work. We can look at Colombia and see that lock downs do work there, at least for now. Top 10 states in number of infections: New York, New Jersey, California, Michigan, Louisiana, Florida, Massachusetts, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Washington. Nine of the ten have Democratic governors. Even though Louisiana has a Democratic governor, it is a red state. Florida is the only one with the governor and legislature controlled by Republicans. If you look at the top ten in number of deaths, take out Pennsylvania and put in Georgia. Two Republican governors and eight Democrats. If you content that we must look at populations, then the top ten are: California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan.

Looking for a place or country to go to without the virus? This guy can show you.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzaHLeZyc9M[/URL]

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2439929]If that's true, then lock downs don't appear to work. We can look at Colombia and see that lock downs do work there, at least for now. Top 10 states in number of infections: New York, New Jersey, California, Michigan, Louisiana, Florida, Massachusetts, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Washington. Nine of the ten have Democratic governors. Even though Louisiana has a Democratic governor, it is a red state. Florida is the only one with the governor and legislature controlled by Republicans. If you look at the top ten in number of deaths, take out Pennsylvania and put in Georgia. Two Republican governors and eight Democrats. If you content that we must look at populations, then the top ten are: California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan.[/QUOTE]California locked down earlier than most States and accordingly are doing much better percentage wise than others, unfortunately New York is just a different animal I suspect just because so many people travel there versus other Cities and States. The lock downs at least in the States that started them earlier as noted by Fauci and Brix during there briefings confirm this.

I am amazed that the Governor of Georgia just yesterday locked down his State and said he just did it because he had just found out in the last twenty four hours that people with the virus with no symptoms could infect others. The CDC headquarters are located in Georgia, his home State. You would of thought he would of known something about this like everyone else. A bizarre excuse and he should be removed from office. And Florida not shutting down until recently, but until after Spring break.

Does anyone have a rational explanation for the delays these two Republican Governors took in locking down their States, besides party affiliation?

The trump pills work, very hard to find now. They were available the other day and all of a sudden very scarce. I think the government bought a lot of the inventory for police and government use. Z packs are available for 30 mil but there was a lot of that around.

I have a course of the Trump pills paid 110 mil. As I write production on the Trump pills is ramping up. There should be plenty in a month. They are one of the keys to bringing things back to normal.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2440044]

Does anyone have a rational explanation for the delays these two Republican Governors took in locking down their States, besides party affiliation?[/QUOTE]I would not say party affiliation and throw them all into baskets that way. Some Republican governors acted early and get high marks.

[URL]https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/01/coronavirus-state-governors-best-worst-covid-19-159945[/URL]

The two that you mention are two that have the closest ties to the president: They both owe their primary election to the president.

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/politics/brian-kemp-ron-desantis-donald-trump-coronavirus/index.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2440116]I would not say party affiliation and throw them all into baskets that way. Some Republican governors acted early and get high marks.

[URL]https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/01/coronavirus-state-governors-best-worst-covid-19-159945[/URL]

The two that you mention are two that have the closest ties to the president: They both owe their primary election to the president.

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/politics/brian-kemp-ron-desantis-donald-trump-coronavirus/index.html[/URL][/QUOTE]Agreed, however the Governors of Georgia and Florida should of acted sooner and I put them in the party affiliation dumpster.

Regardless, it's sad.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2439929]If that's true, then lock downs don't appear to work. [/QUOTE]Lock downs are working in Canada. You need to be early. You can't wait until it starts to spread through the community to enact a shutdown.

The reason they aren't as effective in the US is largely because:

(1) They were done too late.

(2) A lot of Americans simply don't abide by the rules. They don't believe what they're being told.

Too late. This virus is patient. Much more so than us.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2440121]Agreed, however the Governors of Georgia and Florida should of acted sooner and I put them in the party affiliation dumpster.

Regardless, it's sad.[/QUOTE]Florida is the third most populace state and second most visited by foreigners. It is sixth in the number of infections and number of deaths. As for number of infections and deaths in the top ten, only California and Pennsylvania have less per capita than Florida. Using statistics, Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors.

I agree it's a sad situation, too many deaths, but we need to act towards the future. We can learn from the past, but can't change it.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2440162]Florida is the third most populace state and second most visited by foreigners. It is sixth in the number of infections and number of deaths. As for number of infections and deaths in the top ten, only California and Pennsylvania have less per capita than Florida. Using statistics, Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors.

I agree it's a sad situation, too many deaths, but we need to act towards the future. We can learn from the past, but can't change it.[/QUOTE]Sorry I cannot agree that the governor of Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors, and as far at the governor of Georgia, are you of the opinion that he as well is doing better than many Democratic Governors?

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2440139]Lock downs are working in Canada. You need to be early. You can't wait until it starts to spread through the community to enact a shutdown.

The reason they aren't as effective in the US is largely because:

(1) They were done too late.

(2) A lot of Americans simply don't abide by the rules. They don't believe what they're being told.

Too late. This virus is patient. Much more so than us.[/QUOTE]LOL, Canadians abide by all the rules, And believe everything Trudow says, BTW he is a big liar. Canada has exponential growth (10,000 cases since the 20th) and will most likely be shit show in 2 weeks. Hope I'm wrong about that. [URL]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/[/URL].

Rebel News has good videos from your airports on YouTube.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2439875]The US is in the same boat as the rest of the world. The final numbers are not in from anywhere. Tell me the fallacy of comparing current numbers from the US to current numbers from all other countries. The US was in the first wave of countries to get the virus (after China), about the same time as some other countries, and earlier than many countries. The first detected case in the US was nine days before the first detected case in Italy.

Remember, your statement "Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. " I am still looking for most countries that handled it better.

I don't want to be augmentative, just trying to understand your train of thought.[/QUOTE]The rate of increase was the fastest in the US of almost any country. From the time there were 100 cases to the present the US wins the race. Look for the dates when the number of cases reached 100, and compare at 10 or 20 day intervals.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2440168]The rate of increase was the fastest in the US of almost any country. From the time there were 100 cases to the present the US wins the race. Look for the dates when the number of cases reached 100, and compare at 10 or 20 day intervals.[/QUOTE]Umm, correlate 'rate of increase' with rate of testing, maybe?

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2439875]The US is in the same boat as the rest of the world. The final numbers are not in from anywhere. Tell me the fallacy of comparing current numbers from the US to current numbers from all other countries. The US was in the first wave of countries to get the virus (after China), about the same time as some other countries, and earlier than many countries. The first detected case in the US was nine days before the first detected case in Italy.

Remember, your statement "Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. " I am still looking for most countries that handled it better.

I don't want to be augmentative, just trying to understand your train of thought.[/QUOTE]Looking at the numbers for the number of cases around 30 days after the cases hit 100. This is important because the time it took to get to the first 100 varied a lot based on random factors. But once cases hit 100 the increases become more regular. The numbers (taken off a graph, so not exact) for countries I found were as follows:

US 245,000.

Spain - 112,000.

Germany, China, and Italy were all around 70-75,000.

France - 50,000.

UK. Not at 30 days yet, but at 33,000.

South Korea - 9,600.

Those are all countries with early outbreaks, but comparing them at 30 days after the cases hit 100 gives a good idea of how fast the cases are growing. Incidentally South Koreas stopped at around 9600.

I was just talking to a woman that works as representative for a factory in Guangzhou China, we were talking about an order I made but she steered the conversation to the virus being so bad in the USA, knowing that the central problem in China was in Wuhan 500 miles from Guangzhou. She said that when world got out about the virus that they only had a few cases in Guangzhou (there is 14 million in Guangzhou city limits but 56 million in that metro area) but that everyone stayed home for one month and then when they did come out everyone was wearing masks and still are wearing masks. An all their cases are recovered. I have now ideal where she gets her info about how many cases etc, how many recovered but for sure they were on lockdown for a month in her city and then they still wear masks outside their homes.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2439710]It boils down to politics mostly, if you look at the red states versus the blue states, and the politicians in charge, generally the blue states, such as California, instigated lock down measures sooner than the red states.
[/QUOTE]No, the whole notion of Democrats good, Republicans bad or vice versa is laughable.

Washington state is run by a Democrat governor. Health officials there bucked the CDC and tested individuals on their own and decided that Covid-19 was not just due to people who traveled to China but was organically being spread in the community. They get an absolute 10 in terms of management.

IMO Trump gets a 2 out of 10 on his handling of the crisis. He didn't manage the CDC and FDA and take things seriously at first. He seemed to be going based on what he wanted to have happen versus what happened. When the virus exploded, he proclaimed nothing like this has happened before after being warned that it might. He trusted the Chinese president the virus was contained when it was not. There was also his administration's failure to identify domestic Covid spread at a much later time than Washington state officials did. Probably the only thing that Trump did right was to halt air traffic to and from China early on.

The 1 out of 10 goes to New York and Louisiana. The pathetic mayor of New Orleans, a Democrat, let Mardi Gras go on, blamed Trump, and ignored WHO. NYC had a parade through China town and the leadership there proclaimed that anyone against the parade was racist. Chuck Schumer said banning flights from China was racist. The NYC's top public health official told people to continue riding the subways insisting that there was no danger from Covid, and the NYC mayor told NYC citizens to keep eating out at restaurants on the same day the NBA stopped its season. It is no wonder then that Louisiana and NYC are getting decimated by Covid.

With two exceptions, I don't recall much else being either spectacularly bad or good.

The two states that get a -5 are Michigan and Nevada. Preliminary data on hydroxychlorquine and azithromycin were promising. Trump brought up this study and that combination as mentioned by Woodman here was to call that combination of drugs, Trump pills. To me, a decision to use these medications should be left between a patient and doctor. Nevada and Michigan severely restricted use of these possibly life saving medications and implied that they were going to go after doctors who used them.

The governor in Michigan had a feud with Trump and maybe this is Fox News bias but it sure seems to me like this governor showed her incompetence when she asked, "Uh, you know those pills that I said Michigan doctors shouldn't prescribe because they were unproven. Uh, hey, President Trump, can you give me some of them please? I kind of need them for people dying here. ": [URL]https://www.foxnews.com/politics/michigan-reverses-course-on-trump-touted-coronavirus-drugs[/URL].

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2440177]I was just talking to a woman that works as representative for a factory in Guangzhou China, we were talking about an order I made but she steered the conversation to the virus being so bad in the USA, knowing that the central problem in China was in Wuhan 500 miles from Guangzhou. She said that when world got out about the virus that they only had a few cases in Guangzhou (there is 14 million in Guangzhou city limits but 56 million in that metro area) but that everyone stayed home for one month and then when they did come out everyone was wearing masks and still are wearing masks. An all their cases are recovered. I have now ideal where she gets her info about how many cases etc, how many recovered but for sure they were on lockdown for a month in her city and then they still wear masks outside their homes.[/QUOTE]The lockdown in China is stricter than what we are in now. I was talking to a friend by phone a week ago. He said he could not leave his apartment on the 5th floor to another apartment on the 4th floor in the same building. If someone is tested with virus, the infected person is moved to an isolated place and can't have visitor. They are doing it like running a program.

For person in population
__If test (person).
_____Isolate_at_hospital (person)
__Else
_____Isolate_at_home (person)

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2439831]I've heard various things about the climate factor. Guayaquil and the surrounding region has a much warmer tropical climate compared to Quito and Cuenca. Is that why the virus hotspot is there?[/QUOTE]The theory is that hot and humid places have less transmission, and Guayquil is both hot and humid. That is why it is an outlier IMO.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2440168]The rate of increase was the fastest in the US of almost any country. From the time there were 100 cases to the present the US wins the race. Look for the dates when the number of cases reached 100, and compare at 10 or 20 day intervals.[/QUOTE]Zeos1, I just got told by one of my chicas that a clinic in Medellin was told to not report positive Corona cases. I read a report the death rate in China was 10 to 20 X what was reported. A German infections disease specialist urged German politicians to not include Corona cases if patients tested + but were not ill. If you look at South Korea, a nation almost everyone says did everything right, there was aggressive testing but a huge percentage of positive patients were in their 20's where death rates are very low.

There is no doubt that the number of reported cases in the USA Is the highest, but I would be careful in that the Chinese may not have reported all that they had or tested all the people suffering from symptoms. As for the rate of increase, percentage wise, in the US being the highest, I do not see that at all. The percentage increase in the ramp up or exponential rise of cases is pretty much a pattern I have seen in most countries.

The USA Has the greatest number of reported cases, but we are the third most populated country in the world. China is #1 in population and India is #2, and India so far has not been hit that hard. Even if they were, I wonder how much testing that they could do.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2439621]I thought we'd already been over these things.[/QUOTE]Well, just like scientists supposedly agreed upon global warming, I guess we should just concede and kill ourselves.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2439621]24,000 flu deaths out of 38-54 million cases.

5,000 coronavirus deaths out of 200,000 cases. Assuming we hit 1 million known cases in the US, number of coronavirus deaths will surpass flu deaths. If we matched the number of flu cases, coronavirus would cause nearly 40 times as many deaths. All based on currently available data.[/QUOTE]Again, this is actually less than "the expert consensus" which is now at 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. When you are at 200,000 and people just assume we are going to get to one million, IMO, which goes against "expert consensus", that is a pretty big assumption. So is the assumption that we are at 5000 dead now and hitting 25,000. When I see such extreme "expert consensus" , I will always look for evidence to go against those assumptions.

The reason is this is Malthusian thinking, and that man will not try to improve his standing. Malthusian thinking is very popular but it is almost always wrong. If Malthus was right, we would all be starving right now. When exactly did climate scientists say we were all going to die because of global warming again?

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2439621]87% of new Tuberculosis cases occur in 8 countries: India, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South Africa. The US only has around 9,000 cases of Tuberculosis per year and that number has dropped every year since 1992.[/QUOTE]

I guess when people die or get sick in those countries it does not matter then? We are on the INTERNATIONAL sex guide here right?

And, what I learned from the past is our Federal response to this crisis has been a total S%%T Sandwich! Now we have Jared Kushner fielding questions from reporters. That can't be a good sign. Time for everyone to put together a "Bugout" bag because shit's going to get weird. Adios!

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2440162]Florida is the third most populace state and second most visited by foreigners. It is sixth in the number of infections and number of deaths. As for number of infections and deaths in the top ten, only California and Pennsylvania have less per capita than Florida. Using statistics, Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors.

I agree it's a sad situation, too many deaths, but we need to act towards the future. We can learn from the past, but can't change it.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2440164]Sorry I cannot agree that the governor of Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors, and as far at the governor of Georgia, are you of the opinion that he as well is doing better than many Democratic Governors?[/QUOTE]You can believe whatever you want, but I am using actual stats, not opinions. I have not mentioned the governor of Georgia, and only mentioned the state of Georgia one time. That was in reference to the number of deaths, and not complimentary. Why haven't you mentioned the governors of Michigan, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Illinois, and Connecticut? The Florida governor is statistically doing better than any of them. I won't even include New York and New Jersey in that list because they are an aberration. In my opinion, the mayor of New York City holds primary blame for those two states. Friday, Mayor de Blasio hinted that he may not want help from Samaritan's Purse, who has set up hospital tents in Central Park, and using their own medical staff and supplies. The reason, they are evangelical Christians. So his religious, or non-religious, beliefs come before the health of the citizens of NYC.

I've been living in Colombia on and off for the past 15 years, mostly in Bogota. I'm here now. I'm glad to be here. I can't think of a better place to wait this out.

I actually really feel sorry for people in North America and Europe when I look at the numbers.

[URL]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/URL]

[QUOTE=Woodman09;2440167]LOL, Canadians abide by all the rules, And believe everything Trudow says, BTW he is a big liar. Canada has exponential growth (10,000 cases since the 20th) and will most likely be shit show in 2 weeks. Hope I'm wrong about that. [URL]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/[/URL].

Rebel News has good videos from your airports on YouTube.[/QUOTE]Canadians seem to be taking things more seriously. Friday, at 5:45 pm I got on the 401 westbound from Mississauga. Typically, at that time on Friday, I'd be stop and go for nearly 2 hours, before traffic starts to thin out around Cambridge (about 40 miles). Today I made the distance in 35 minutes. Friday morning on my way in at 7:30 I barely had to slow down. I'd say traffic is down about 65%.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2440187]Well, just like scientists supposedly agreed upon global warming, I guess we should just concede and kill ourselves.[/QUOTE]Can you fill me in on why you want to discuss global warming? At least use the correct label, "anthropogenically induced climate change. " If you want to discuss it, go ahead and draw up a heat balance for our environment. You'll need it to follow the discussion.

[QUOTE]Again, this is actually less than "the expert consensus" which is now at 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. When you are at 200,000 and people just assume we are going to get to one million, IMO, which goes against "expert consensus", that is a pretty big assumption. So is the assumption that we are at 5000 dead now and hitting 25,000. When I see such extreme "expert consensus" , I will always look for evidence to go against those assumptions.[/QUOTE]How can a successful investor not understand basic math?

Current evidence suggests this virus spreads twice as easily as the flu. Current evidence indicates it is more likely to result in hospitalization and death than the flu. Using total number of flu deaths is useless for comparison, unless you also compare total number of cases.

Would you compare the quarterly earnings of 2 stocks, without also including company value? Two companies report $5 million in 1st quarter earnings. One company is valued at $100 million, the other at $3 billion. Are you trying to tell us, the $3 billion company is doing better, because more people know the name? That's exactly what you're saying when trying to compare the flu with coronavirus.

[QUOTE]The reason is this is Malthusian thinking, and that man will not try to improve his standing. Malthusian thinking is very popular but it is almost always wrong. If Malthus was right, we would all be starving right now. When exactly did climate scientists say we were all going to die because of global warming again? [/QUOTE]They didn't. Ever. They never will.

Perhaps a brief introduction to science is needed.

Science is merely a set of tools used to attempt to understand the world around us, much as investors use a set of tools to determine the present and future value of an investment. Clearly some use the tools better than others.

Scientists recognize that their toolkit is imperfect. Everything is a work in progress. The goal is not to learn everything. The goal is to learn more. Learning everything assumes knowledge is finite. It isn't. So scientists learn to improve their tools, learn to better apply available data and constantly refine the current library of knowledge.

Science first recognized the possibility that mankind was capable of altering the climate over 100 years ago. H. G. Wells touched on the subject in 1933 in "The Shape of Things to Come. " Fifty years ago, the general consensus was that mankind would alter the climate, and since then the debate has been over how much and how quickly this would happen.

Now we have access to many years of global data. The data shows the climate has changed. The data shows the global climate is warming. The data shows the rate is increasing. Many like to suggest this is part of the natural climate cycle. If that's true, not just mankind, but the entire planet is doomed. I'll explain.

Roughly, the natural climate cycle is around 40,000 years. The last ice age ended 20,000 years ago. The climate cycle is a sine wave. It can only be a sine wave. There are 4 sections of the natural climate change sine wave. First, the temperature is rising at a steady rate, then the rate of temperature rise drops until it reaches 0. Next phase, temperature drops and the rate of drop increases until it reaches maximum. Third phase, rate of temperature drop decreases until it hits 0. Final leg, temperature begins to increase and rate of increase rises, until max is reached. Each of these takes 10,000 years.

We should be at the peak, when temperatures start to drop, with an increasing rate. Instead temperatures are rising with an increasing rate. That means, in the natural climate cycle, we are just past the peak of an ice age. We have, if it's just natural, 20,000 years of increasing temperatures, and nearly 10,000 years of an increasing rate of increase. Currently, we're at 1° every 25 years. Even if that rate only doubles before peak increase is reached, that means naturally, global temperatures will increase by 1600° over the next 20,000 years. Which is of course ridiculous. Which means removing mankind from the climate equation doesn't work.

Now, if you can get past climate change, we'll move on to your blind spot.

We can't base today's actions on possible future events. When forest fires are burning, do we stop fighting them because we know it will eventually rain? If someone is bleeding profusely do you just wait around because eventually an ambulance will show up? In a casualty situation you take actions based upon what is happening right now, not based upon what the future will surely bring. You make projections based upon what is currently known, not on your hope of future knowledge.

[QUOTE]I guess when people die or get sick in those countries it does not matter then? We are on the INTERNATIONAL sex guide here right?[/QUOTE]When you're trying to compare two diseases in relation to the US and one of those diseases has already been almost eradicated from the US, yes, it doesn't matter how that disease affects other countries.

Why not bring up US malaria cases? Discussing Tuberculosis is a false equivalency.

[QUOTE=BangoCheito;2440213]I've been living in Colombia on and off for the past 15 years, mostly in Bogota. I'm here now. I'm glad to be here. I can't think of a better place to wait this out.

I actually really feel sorry for people in North America and Europe when I look at the numbers.

[URL]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/URL][/QUOTE]Those are confirmed cases. You think everyone in Bogota is getting tested? The Colombian government is doing its best but I doubt their numbers are accurate. Latin America will become a shit show in about a month. They will likely suffer far worse than Europe.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2440197]You can believe whatever you want, but I am using actual stats, not opinions. I have not mentioned the governor of Georgia, and only mentioned the state of Georgia one time. That was in reference to the number of deaths, and not complimentary. Why haven't you mentioned the governors of Michigan, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Illinois, and Connecticut? The Florida governor is statistically doing better than any of them. I won't even include New York and New Jersey in that list because they are an aberration. In my opinion, the mayor of New York City holds primary blame for those two states. Friday, Mayor de Blasio hinted that he may not want help from Samaritan's Purse, who has set up hospital tents in Central Park, and using their own medical staff and supplies. The reason, they are evangelical Christians. So his religious, or non-religious, beliefs come before the health of the citizens of NYC.[/QUOTE]Trying to compare blue vs red states or New York versus Florida is all useless and misses the point. Each area is at a different point in the epidemic, but the percentage increases are actually similar and there are no signs of big improvements anywhere except possibly the initially hard hit areas of Washington State and California. But they are not out of the woods yet by any means.

I think the big problem is / was the unwillingness to do anything about the oncoming train. You're in a rail tunnel. You see the big light, and somehow you think you're going to be okay because, well, dammit, this is the USA. We have the greatest healthcare in the world, etc. Etc. And the leader in chief who changed his story so many times that it makes your head spin.

Anyway. As far as Colombia, I wish them the best. I fear the worst. But hope for the best.

If you do a good job at testing as the US has done all the lefty dickHeads say what a lousy country the US is. Actually it shall bear out that there is a shitload of unreported cases in all countries and the hammer is coming down in next 2 weeks with apocalyptic scenes. The US is one of the countries that shall have this under control first, wait and see.

Patient 0 was a Researcher at Wuhan Institute of Virology. Case Closed. China Guilty of Negligent Homicide, 62,000 counts and growing.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2440256]Those are confirmed cases. You think everyone in Bogota is getting tested? The Colombian government is doing its best but I doubt their numbers are accurate. Latin America will become a shit show in about a month. They will likely suffer far worse than Europe.[/QUOTE]You make some interesting points. Yes, you are right the people in South America are probably tested to a much smaller extent than the US or Europe so there may indeed be more asymptomatic people out there. But there are big time mitigating factors. The average age in South America is much younger than in the US or Europe. So what? The fatality rates seem to be much higher among older patients. The population in South America is much healthier than the US and Europe. I attribute this to better eating habits and more exercise. Just as an example the obesity rate in the US is 36% (1 in 3! And none of the South American countries are close. The current statistics suggest that people with "chronic conditions" (I. E. Heart disease, diabetes, cancer etc) are more at risk. So, yes, I do think that the South American cases will grow and there will be a large toll but will that be as high as the US and Europe? I doubt it and after taking into account that the US and Europe have far greater medical resources.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2440197]You can believe whatever you want, but I am using actual stats, not opinions. I have not mentioned the governor of Georgia, and only mentioned the state of Georgia one time. That was in reference to the number of deaths, and not complimentary. Why haven't you mentioned the governors of Michigan, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Illinois, and Connecticut? The Florida governor is statistically doing better than any of them. I won't even include New York and New Jersey in that list because they are an aberration. In my opinion, the mayor of New York City holds primary blame for those two states. Friday, Mayor de Blasio hinted that he may not want help from Samaritan's Purse, who has set up hospital tents in Central Park, and using their own medical staff and supplies. The reason, they are evangelical Christians. So his religious, or non-religious, beliefs come before the health of the citizens of NYC.[/QUOTE]The truth be told, I am just exasperated by this whole thing while sitting at home.

I live in California, and watching what's happening in our Country right now is hard to stomach and it's as though we have 50 different Countries within the USA, and almost 50 different approaches to what's going on, versus other Countries that seem to have more of a unified approach.

And lots of different numbers, opinions, and thoughts as to how things are being handled.

I only hope a vaccine is developed rapidly as this is the only thing I see that will put an end to all of this.

We'll be OK here.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2440279]Trying to compare blue vs red states or New York versus Florida is all useless and misses the point. Each area is at a different point in the epidemic, but the percentage increases are actually similar and there are no signs of big improvements anywhere except possibly the initially hard hit areas of Washington State and California. But they are not out of the woods yet by any means.

I think the big problem is / was the unwillingness to do anything about the oncoming train. You're in a rail tunnel. You see the big light, and somehow you think you're going to be okay because, well, dammit, this is the USA. We have the greatest healthcare in the world, etc. Etc. And the leader in chief who changed his story so many times that it makes your head spin.

Anyway. As far as Colombia, I wish them the best. I fear the worst. But hope for the best.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2440139]Lock downs are working in Canada. You need to be early. You can't wait until it starts to spread through the community to enact a shutdown.

The reason they aren't as effective in the US is largely because:

(1) They were done too late.

(2) A lot of Americans simply don't abide by the rules. They don't believe what they're being told.

Too late. This virus is patient. Much more so than us.[/QUOTE]Canada handled it in a very scientific / common sense way. Test and trace contacts of people who tested positive. As a result the whole country currently has roughly the same number of cases as the state of Michigan.

So I wonder what is store in the future to enter a Country, besides being quarantined, I envision when they develop a vaccine which can be certified, like the Yellow Fever Certificate you would think this would allow for entry into a Country, but what about people who have had the virus, would they perhaps be allowed in with proof based an antibody test which I believe is available now?

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2440342]So I wonder what is store in the future to enter a Country, besides being quarantined, I envision when they develop a vaccine which can be certified, like the Yellow Fever Certificate you would think this would allow for entry into a Country, but what about people who have had the virus, would they perhaps be allowed in with proof based an antibody test which I believe is available now?[/QUOTE]Have you ever had the flu shot? Did you do it every year? Was it always effective?

There is going to be a second and maybe third wave of SARS-COV-2. 60-70% of the world's population will be infected each time. These lock downs are only meant to slow the spread so hospitals can manage the critical cases. Most of the people you know will be infected. Let that sink in for a moment. You will likely be infected at some point.

There will be no certification or effective vaccine. There are already 8 strains of this virus going around.

The future is countries will be ready to deal with the critical cases, or they won't be. This isn't the first time we will see shelter in place orders.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2440358]Have you ever had the flu shot? Did you do it every year? Was it always effective?

There is going to be a second and maybe third wave of SARS-COV-2. 60-70% of the world's population will be infected each time. These lock downs are only meant to slow the spread so hospitals can manage the critical cases. Most of the people you know will be infected. Let that sink in for a moment. You will likely be infected at some point.

There will be no certification or effective vaccine. There are already 8 strains of this virus going around.

The future is countries will be ready to deal with the critical cases, or they won't be. This isn't the first time we will see shelter in place orders.[/QUOTE]We have begun living in a scary new world. We can only hope that the scientists and medical specialist can come up with an anti virus like they did with HIV but much faster. This thing transmits too easily. You are so right YippieK, vaccines have a throw the dice effectiveness. Right now the best we can do is isolate ourselves and slow down the transmission. I was amazed to see that even the president now admits that there will be a lot of deaths in the next few weeks. Now I'm really scared. He knows more than we do and usually doesn't give such bad news or admit how bad things are.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2440358]Have you ever had the flu shot? Did you do it every year? Was it always effective?

There is going to be a second and maybe third wave of SARS-COV-2. 60-70% of the world's population will be infected each time. These lock downs are only meant to slow the spread so hospitals can manage the critical cases. Most of the people you know will be infected. Let that sink in for a moment. You will likely be infected at some point.

There will be no certification or effective vaccine. There are already 8 strains of this virus going around.

The future is countries will be ready to deal with the critical cases, or they won't be. This isn't the first time we will see shelter in place orders.[/QUOTE]Well I've had the flu shot every year and started doing so about 8 years ago when I didn't and got the flu, and since then I haven't caught the flu.

I hope you are dead wrong about there being no certification or effective vaccine for the virus and am sure you feel the same way as well, but time will tell and maybe it will boil down to a miracle treatment, only time will tell.

So getting back to my original question, if there is no effective vaccine, etc. Then does that mean all visitors to a Country will have to be quarantined when arriving in your opinion. And if so, I guess that will put a damper on foreign tourism to Countries, and mongering.

The thought of this is mind boggling.

[QUOTE=Judd;2440196]And, what I learned from the past is our Federal response to this crisis has been a total S%%T Sandwich! Now we have Jared Kushner fielding questions from reporters. That can't be a good sign. Time for everyone to put together a "Bugout" bag because shit's going to get weird. Adios![/QUOTE]New York, New Jersey, DC and California are red states?

Today President Duque announced that "next week will decide whether or not the quarantine continues". This after he confirmed last night that those 70 and older will be under quarantine until May 30. There are 85 recovered today and a little more than 1400 confirmed cases and 62 deaths. We should be in triple digit recovered cases by next week.

[QUOTE=Villainy;2440303]You make some interesting points. Yes, you are right the people in South America are probably tested to a much smaller extent than the US or Europe so there may indeed be more asymptomatic people out there. But there are big time mitigating factors. The average age in South America is much younger than in the US or Europe. So what? The fatality rates seem to be much higher among older patients. The population in South America is much healthier than the US and Europe. I attribute this to better eating habits and more exercise. Just as an example the obesity rate in the US is 36% (1 in 3! And none of the South American countries are close. The current statistics suggest that people with "chronic conditions" (I. E. Heart disease, diabetes, cancer etc) are more at risk. So, yes, I do think that the South American cases will grow and there will be a large toll but will that be as high as the US and Europe? I doubt it and after taking into account that the US and Europe have far greater medical resources.[/QUOTE]I agree with your observations. I have read that the average age of those who have died in Italy is over 70. The obesity in the US is staggering. Way too many couch potatoes eating fast food. I've never been to Europe, but looking at the visitors to Florida from the UK, it is just as bad there.

[QUOTE=ShooBree;2440378]New York, New Jersey, DC and California are red states?[/QUOTE]You must not be from the USA, California is one of the most liberal states, blue, in the Country.

Reference to where the spike of new cases will most likely occur in the upcoming weeks as they are the remaining States to issue a shelter in place order. This may be a good thing as those States may be spiking in cases, others will be dropping, we'll be able to shift resources. Essentially, what we're doing is a delayed "Herd" approach where we all eventually get it.

Not sure if this is a good idea or not? Since our healthcare workers are at a greater risk of getting this virus due to constant exposure and limited PPE, why not have them stay at these empty Hotel buildings instead of going to home and endangering their family?

Can't wait til we can put this behind us, grab a beer together, and have hot Colombians shaking their big asses in front us!

[QUOTE=ShooBree;2440378]New York, New Jersey, DC and California are red states?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2440371]
So getting back to my original question, if there is no effective vaccine, etc. Then does that mean all visitors to a Country will have to be quarantined when arriving in your opinion. And if so, I guess that will put a damper on foreign tourism to Countries, and mongering.

The thought of this is mind boggling.[/QUOTE]It will truly end when we have herd immunity and the virus can't hop between hosts. The pandemic of 1918 came in three waves, 1918, then a really deadly one in 1919, and finally 1920. The only place in the world that wasn't touched is American Samoa. The governor of American Samoa closed the port and setup patrols on the shores to keep any ship from docking for two years.

There's no miracle cure. We might get a vaccine but if the virus keeps mutating enough then it won't help much.

More opinion. I continue to work through this, which forces me into the public, just trying to keep myself fed. That's turned into it's own struggle. Many places have closed their restaurants, including fast food, or shortened their hours.

Many people in the US aren't taking this seriously. Most of the cars I see on the road obviously aren't out on essential business. You don't take the whole family out, with the dog, to buy Charmin vat 10 pm. The fast food restaurants I'm stuck getting food from, the employees are often not taking any extra precautions.

Worst are the other customers. Every day, even with my best efforts to maintain my distance, someone will come closer than I'm comfortable with, even without the virus out there. There's 5 empty urinals, I took the one farthest away for a reason. Why are you taking the one next to me? There's enough room for you to stay 10 feet away from me, why do I need to hug the wall to avoid being bumped by you?

Now the CDC is recommending masks on everyone. A good idea. However, and too bad if you think this is too political, the way the President announced it seemed to strongly suggest wearing masks isn't important. If he doesn't want to wear a mask, fine. Tell the world, "I won't be wearing a mask to make sure more masks are available for the doctors in the White House. " Don't stand up there and repeatedly stress it's optional.

I'm expecting widespread curfews soon, although only coming on the local level. I don't think we're close to hitting a plateau yet. That won't happen until 2 or 3 weeks after the administration stands up and clearly says "Stay the fuck at home."

On a personal note, the disease has hit too close to home. Someone very close to me is currently in ICU on a ventilator, and it's someone in a high risk group. They've been tested, but the family has been told results won't be back until mid-week. If the test is positive, a bunch of high risk people have also been exposed, and been in contact with a lot of people who haven't been taking precautions. Several small towns, which believed this was a city problem, could be about to have a rude awakening.

The next week should tell us whether or not Colombia has kept ahead of things. I'm hoping for the best, but not yet optimistic.

Stay safe, stay healthy and stay the fuck at home.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2440437]It will truly end when we have herd immunity and the virus can't hop between hosts. The pandemic of 1918 came in three waves, 1918, then a really deadly one in 1919, and finally 1920. The only place in the world that wasn't touched is American Samoa. The governor of American Samoa closed the port and setup patrols on the shores to keep any ship from docking for two years.

There's no miracle cure. We might get a vaccine but if the virus keeps mutating enough then it won't help much.[/QUOTE]I agree with everything you say. Our flu vaccine is only modestly effective. I do not know if I believe this or not, but I have read Covid's mutations are not nearly as dramatic as the common flu, making a vaccine perhaps a bit more effective. But your point is well taken. And while I understand the logic of the worldwide quarantine was to buy some time for hospitals and for a vaccine, I fear it's only delayed the inevitable.

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2440394]Today President Duque announced that "next week will decide whether or not the quarantine continues". This after he confirmed last night that those 70 and older will be under quarantine until May 30. There are 85 recovered today and a little more than 1400 confirmed cases and 62 deaths. We should be in triple digit recovered cases by next week.[/QUOTE]I read his statement and I'm still not sure I understand what intelligent isolation means. It sounds like he is laying the groundwork for quarantining only the elderly. I think that is an interesting idea. Perhaps that is a starting ground for getting the economy going while still protecting the most vulnerable.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2440371]Well I've had the flu shot every year and started doing so about 8 years ago when I didn't and got the flu, and since then I haven't caught the flu.

I hope you are dead wrong about there being no certification or effective vaccine for the virus and am sure you feel the same way as well, but time will tell and maybe it will boil down to a miracle treatment, only time will tell.

So getting back to my original question, if there is no effective vaccine, etc. Then does that mean all visitors to a Country will have to be quarantined when arriving in your opinion. And if so, I guess that will put a damper on foreign tourism to Countries, and mongering.

The thought of this is mind boggling.[/QUOTE]It's an interesting topic. I am reminded that things are never as dismal as they seem in the moment. Personally, I think we are nearing a breaking point. And I mean this globally. If economies stay shuttered much longer, the economic devastation will be unprecedented. Out best case scenario is a somewhat effective vaccine. That is, at a minimum, 9 months away, if ever. Most governments will not and cannot wait for that. More to your point, countries that rely heavily on tourism have a terrible predicament. A 14-day quarantine for all visitors would be a non-starter for tourists. Perhaps an effective, quick result test is an alternative, albeit terribly expensive and impractical.

In the end, what I believe, is that countries will do what it takes to survive and that is open its borders. I don't say that critically though. There is a balance. There is a point of no return. Particularly for countries more reliant on tourism, are you willing to accept more than half of your population unemployed? Sadly, even if they opened the borders today, the recovery will take several years.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2440437]It will truly end when we have herd immunity and the virus can't hop between hosts. The pandemic of 1918 came in three waves, 1918, then a really deadly one in 1919, and finally 1920. The only place in the world that wasn't touched is American Samoa. The governor of American Samoa closed the port and setup patrols on the shores to keep any ship from docking for two years.

There's no miracle cure. We might get a vaccine but if the virus keeps mutating enough then it won't help much.[/QUOTE]I still go back to my original question. When do you think we will be able to return to Colombia, and under what conditions.

I have faith that this time around, versus the Pandemic of 1918, that we will be better able to handle it somehow.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

I think you got it right. There are other infectious diseases (ebola, SARS, STDs, turberculosis etc.) that did not cast the world back to the Middle Ages. The world adapts and life goes on, as hard as that might be to remember that just now. Ebola for example is still around and just as deadly as ever. It's different than coronavirus because the symptoms are clear and severe 100% of the time. It's also different because it's much more deadly. Although it is concentrated in certain parts of Africa, no quarantines or travel restrictions have been in place for those areas since the outbreaks were contained in 2014/2015.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2440358]Have you ever had the flu shot? Did you do it every year? Was it always effective?

There is going to be a second and maybe third wave of SARS-COV-2. 60-70% of the world's population will be infected each time. These lock downs are only meant to slow the spread so hospitals can manage the critical cases. Most of the people you know will be infected. Let that sink in for a moment. You will likely be infected at some point.

There will be no certification or effective vaccine. There are already 8 strains of this virus going around.

The future is countries will be ready to deal with the critical cases, or they won't be. This isn't the first time we will see shelter in place orders.[/QUOTE]

That is a fair point. More importantly, this is not really about politics. I truly believe that discussing it in political terms is somewhere between unproductive and damaging. It is a public health issue that could unite the world for a common goal unless, again, it is addressed in political terms.

[QUOTE=ShooBree;2440378]New York, New Jersey, DC and California are red states?[/QUOTE]

"Intelligent isolation" simply means isolation based on known risk factors and essential necessity for contact. In other words, it would allow people to go about their lives without fear of 936,000 fines. Including continued mandatory quarantine of the 70+ population and schools remaining closed, the big change would be businesses other than pharmacies and supermarkets would be allowed to reopen and restaurants and bars could accept on site customers.

If you live with elderly people it would not be intelligent to be out and about and then come home to hug them. Personal hygiene practices are known to prevent the virus spread so that would be something to emphasize for people who come home from work and have contact with vulnerable people.

President Duque indicated the decision would be based on statistics of early next week. As of last night the results are promising. As of this morning we see preliminary signs of a turnaround in Europe and of course over the past week Asia has seen decreasing numbers. As this is Semana Santa, there will be much less than normal activity out on the streets.

I am very disappointed with Claudia Lopez, the mayor of Bogota. Over the past two weeks she has engaged in a pissing contest with the President for apparently political and self promotion reasons. Her most recent controversy creation was a statement that "the quarantine may be extended in Bogota". She knows as well as anyone that is not a decision she can make. It does not help the situation in my opinion for her to stir up shit at a critical time like this. Her public manner is aggressive and confrontational. It seems clear to me she has political axes to grind and she is using the virus as a gambit.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2440539]I read his statement and I'm still not sure I understand what intelligent isolation means. It sounds like he is laying the groundwork for quarantining only the elderly. I think that is an interesting idea. Perhaps that is a starting ground for getting the economy going while still protecting the most vulnerable.[/QUOTE]

I will take a shot a this. No, I don't believe mongering is at its end. If history is any indication, mongering will survive this public health situation the way it survived so many catastrophic events throughout history. It survived every biblical scale natural disaster, every war, every famine, every plague, every STD, every political trend, even the early 20th century pandemic flu that has become the hand wringing point of reference for political pundits in North America.

I suppose I might see it differently if I were in the midst of what is happening in the US right now. I would maybe also see it differently if I did not have a date lined up for 30 minutes from now, or if I were feeling poorly.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2440371]Well I've had the flu shot every year and started doing so about 8 years ago when I didn't and got the flu, and since then I haven't caught the flu.

I hope you are dead wrong about there being no certification or effective vaccine for the virus and am sure you feel the same way as well, but time will tell and maybe it will boil down to a miracle treatment, only time will tell.

So getting back to my original question, if there is no effective vaccine, etc. Then does that mean all visitors to a Country will have to be quarantined when arriving in your opinion. And if so, I guess that will put a damper on foreign tourism to Countries, and mongering.

The thought of this is mind boggling.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2440568]I think you got it right. There are other infectious diseases (ebola, SARS, STDs, turberculosis etc.) that did not cast the world back to the Middle Ages.[/QUOTE]Tuberculosis has been cured and you can be inoculated for it. Those others you mention are not as infectious as SARS-COV-2. Here is a video that illustrates why this is so serious. Pay particular attention to how quickly it spreads:

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVIGhz3uwuQ[/URL]

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2440524]More opinion. I continue to work through this, which forces me into the public, just trying to keep myself fed. That's turned into it's own struggle. Many places have closed their restaurants, including fast food, or shortened their hours.

Many people in the US aren't taking this seriously. Most of the cars I see on the road obviously aren't out on essential business. You don't take the whole family out, with the dog, to buy Charmin vat 10 pm. The fast food restaurants I'm stuck getting food from, the employees are often not taking any extra precautions.

Worst are the other customers. Every day, even with my best efforts to maintain my distance, someone will come closer than I'm comfortable with, even without the virus out there. There's 5 empty urinals, I took the one farthest away for a reason. Why are you taking the one next to me? There's enough room for you to stay 10 feet away from me, why do I need to hug the wall to avoid being bumped by you?

Now the CDC is recommending masks on everyone. A good idea. However, and too bad if you think this is too political, the way the President announced it seemed to strongly suggest wearing masks isn't important. If he doesn't want to wear a mask, fine. Tell the world, "I won't be wearing a mask to make sure more masks are available for the doctors in the White House. " Don't stand up there and repeatedly stress it's optional.

I'm expecting widespread curfews soon, although only coming on the local level. I don't think we're close to hitting a plateau yet. That won't happen until 2 or 3 weeks after the administration stands up and clearly says "Stay the fuck at home.".[/QUOTE]It's amazing how people are so ambivalent about things, along with the varying degrees of isolation being enforced by States and Localities. Probably the scariest thing brought up lately has been to "wear masks" as you mentioned implying that just speaking with someone, their breathing alone, not a cough or a sneeze could cause infection.

I came back from Colombia three weeks ago, and whenever I have been in a store, I have always worn a mask. During my first week back home people were frightened of me, looking at me assuming I was infected and stayed clear of me. Boy have things changed in the last three weeks with the realization as to how easily this virus spreads, for all we know we could becoming infected when someone farts and the gas lingers in the air. And you look at Louisiana, with all those infections, most probably from the Mardi Gras celebrations in late February. And why since January have we seen every single person in an Asian Country wearing a mask. You would think a lot of people in the USA would think, gee wiz, why are they doing that? It has been pretty clear to me they are doing it for a reason.

I live a Southern California beach town and last week they shut down the beach, the parking lots, and the water meaning no surfers allowed to ride the waves, and life guards patrolling the beach preventing anyone from coming onto the sand and entering the water. And in the next town down from me, guess what, the beach was open with people walking on the beach, and surfers in the water on Saturday. So imagine somebody on the beach who is infected, doesn't know it, walks by somebody say 15 feet away, downwind, and there is a breeze or it's windy which normally can be the case, and boom another infected person in the works. Maybe it sounds a little far fetched, but plausible.

And during the Presidents briefing on Saturday I believe Dr. Brix said not to go to the Supermarket or go out period. Scary when your told not to go out period, at all. At least Colombia has it right now limiting people out to twice a week with a curfew in place. But will see what happens on that.

You would think people would get it, no different than what the Italians have been telling everyone regarding what they should have done in retrospect. Your right J2 Bee, very few people in the USA have been taking this whole thing seriously enough.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2440548]
So getting back to my original question, if there is no effective vaccine, etc. Then does that mean all visitors to a Country will have to be quarantined when arriving in your opinion. And if so, I guess that will put a damper on foreign tourism to Countries, and mongering
[/QUOTE]Germany has been talking about an immunity certificate. Maybe we can all get one and go to FKK.

I think the situation is not as bad as you think in the future. There are tests coming out that can provide result quickly. If they are reliable, maybe the tourist can get one upon entry or before boarding and have the tourist pay the cost of the test.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2440639]German has been talking about a certificate. Maybe we can all get one and go to FKK.[/QUOTE]FKK is fun, but it is no substitute for Medellin.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2440244]
How can a successful investor not understand basic math?[/QUOTE]Because an investor I know when numbers are bullshit and when they are real. That was my first and most painful part of investing. Numbers do not lie, but people lie about numbers. I saw China lied about their numbers based on patterns, so the best data we have is flawed. I have read death rates from 0. 8 to 8%, and it varies tremendously on testing. In fact, when you look at country data, death rate percentage is all over the place. Hell, what constitutes a positive test is under debate.

With TB, there may be 9000 new cases of TB in the USA, but there are 13 million latent cases. That means TB is in their body, and if their immune system is in any way deficient, the TB can flare and be deadly.

You want to make estimates based on data, have at it but do not tell me what is established because nothing is. Maybe you noticed that a day or two after I said that new cases has peaked, a lot of the media and experts were saying the same thing about Italy, Washington, and California. And now the CIA says the data out of China is bullshit.

One effective treatment, and I do not mean a 100% effective, and the death numbers go way down. Any projection is based upon doctors not getting any better treating this disease, and I do not buy that. People who use Malthusian models NEVER count on human ingenuity, and that is why they almost always fail.

Furthermore, when you say, it is decided, you could not be more wrong. That is global warming crap. How can a man made theory be all decided? The data supporting man made global warming is crap. If the planet is going to end as we know it, and I am not sure when that is, why don't we just all kill ourselves? Let's party like it is 1999. Fuck Covid. The earth is going to die.

All logic aside, I am sorry about your friend. A high school acquaintance of mine got the virus, and it saddened me to see her so sick.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2440639]Germany has been talking about an immunity certificate. Maybe we can all get one and go to FKK.

I think the situation is not as bad as you think in the future. There are tests coming out that can provide result quickly. If they are reliable, maybe the tourist can get one upon entry or before boarding and have the tourist pay the cost of the test.[/QUOTE]Interesting, and I hope your right. Perhaps six months from now when the worst is over in the USA (hopefully) someone who wanted to fly internationally would arrive at as an example say LAX, and go to a dedicated off-site remote parking lot, get tested, and if cleared be taken to the International Terminal. As far as an immunity certificate, if supposedly people who have caught the disease and have taken an anti-body test might be able to get certified that way, but I don't know if there are different types of the virus, and how long the immunity lasts. However, testing before boarding the plane makes sense, but perhaps were missing something, like a person could be infected but not show up positive for a few days. I'm sure other board members could shed some light on this.

This all sounds like something out of a science fiction novel, now besides having to go thru security at the airports, we most probably will have to go thru medical testing to board an International flight.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2440639]Germany has been talking about an immunity certificate. Maybe we can all get one and go to FKK.[/QUOTE]An immunity certificate? So I should expose myself and risk it. Hell, may be worth it. "Cough in my face Grandma! I got to get to Colombia!

[QUOTE=Nounce;2440639]I think the situation is not as bad as you think in the future. There are tests coming out that can provide result quickly. If they are reliable, maybe the tourist can get one upon entry or before boarding and have the tourist pay the cost of the test.[/QUOTE]I agree with you on it not being so bad. The numbers and curves appear to soon show a dramatic lowering of active cases in the coming weeks. It isn't how many cases the USA Had that matters but how many active cases when we get ready to travel.

There is also the notion that the USA Has 6 X or so the amount of people but 200 X the number of cases right? Eh, I am not so sure. One of my chicas told me that a clinic had a whole slew of people who tested + for Covid 19 in a Medellin, but they were not put on the government list.

Also, Colombia has a larger population than Peru, Chile, Ecuador, and Panama, but it has fewer cases. That supports the idea that they are fudging the numbers, so the whole idea the USA Has way more cases percentage wise than Colombia probably is true, but I am not sure that it is as big as it is made out to be.

To me, the simplest thing is to just check a temperature. Yes, I know there is a time frame the virus is contagious but asymptomatic, but it is not like there are not cases in Colombia already.

I think this thing burns itself out. The whole notion being put out there is that there is no immunity to this virus which is bullshit. There is no specific immunity which is kind of like saying that you have sharp shooters specific for the virus. The body has all other kinds of weapons in place to kill the virus. The idea that if the virus gets hold and you have no immunity and you get an infection is just bunk. It is a war, and wars can be won without sharp shooters.

On the other hand, it might be that the virus triggers an overactive immune response that is in fact what is deadly. Apparently, when you have the cryogenic strom mediated by Il-6 mostly, you can see someone go down in hours right before your eyes. When the war is being fought in the body, it is possible that friendly fire is what does many if not most people in.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2440659]Because an investor I know when numbers are bullshit and when they are real. That was my first and most painful part of investing. Numbers do not lie, but people lie about numbers. I saw China lied about their numbers based on patterns, so the best data we have is flawed. I have read death rates from 0. 8 to 8%, and it varies tremendously on testing. In fact, when you look at country data, death rate percentage is all over the place. Hell, what constitutes a positive test is under debate.

With TB, there may be 9000 new cases of TB in the USA, but there are 13 million latent cases. That means TB is in their body, and if their immune system is in any way deficient, the TB can flare and be deadly.

You want to make estimates based on data, have at it but do not tell me what is established because nothing is. Maybe you noticed that a day or two after I said that new cases has peaked, a lot of the media and experts were saying the same thing about Italy, Washington, and California. And now the CIA says the data out of China is bullshit.

One effective treatment, and I do not mean a 100% effective, and the death numbers go way down. Any projection is based upon doctors not getting any better treating this disease, and I do not buy that. People who use Malthusian models NEVER count on human ingenuity, and that is why they almost always fail..[/QUOTE]Phenomenal post. No offense, but for those of you claiming to fully understand what works, what prevention steps work, etc. You are only fooling yourself. Ask yourself. How could we possibly know when the peak will occur? How could you possibly attribute Italy's 2- day old improvement to quarantining? They've been locked down for weeks. I firmly believe we humans fool ourselves into believing some of this stuff to feel in control. Don't believe that? Look back at the last 3 months and appreciate how our understanding of this virus has changed.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2440687]Phenomenal post. No offense, but for those of you claiming to fully understand what works, what prevention steps work, etc. You are only fooling yourself. Ask yourself. How could we possibly know when the peak will occur? How could you possibly attribute Italy's 2- day old improvement to quarantining? They've been locked down for weeks. I firmly believe we humans fool ourselves into believing some of this stuff to feel in control. Don't believe that? Look back at the last 3 months and appreciate how our understanding of this virus has changed.[/QUOTE]I think there is good evidence that maintaining distance and not touching shit without a thorough washing afterwards does stop transmission. Other than that, not much. So to that extent we have some control. But other than that all we have is the numbers. As fudged and incomplete as they are. There are many undiagnosed cases out there. Hence "community transmission". So any "distancing" we do now we still have to remember that it was what was going on 2 to 3 weeks ago, as well as what is happening now, that is making the numbers happen.

The numbers are certainly showing differences from country to country. But a lot of those differences are timing. It got really rolling at different times in different places. Basically when you had it get into the "community transmission" phase.

Using just the numbers, and the rates of increase or decrease, paints a pretty bad picture. Especially in the US at the moment.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2440787]I think there is good evidence that maintaining distance and not touching shit without a thorough washing afterwards does stop transmission. Other than that, not much. So to that extent we have some control. But other than that all we have is the numbers. As fudged and incomplete as they are. There are many undiagnosed cases out there. Hence "community transmission". So any "distancing" we do now we still have to remember that it was what was going on 2 to 3 weeks ago, as well as what is happening now, that is making the numbers happen.

The numbers are certainly showing differences from country to country. But a lot of those differences are timing. It got really rolling at different times in different places. Basically when you had it get into the "community transmission" phase.

Using just the numbers, and the rates of increase or decrease, paints a pretty bad picture. Especially in the US at the moment.[/QUOTE]Great post. I agree entirely. Distancing makes sense. That's common sense. But unless we are willing to shutter everything for 2-3 weeks, and sanitize everything on the face of the planet, simultaneously, eliminating this virus is a pipe dream.

Your point about numbers is spot on. They are flawed. And I'm just frustrated by how they are misinterpreted. People rely on the mortality rate, while not even thinking how testing affects that rate. So many are freaking out about the number of cases in the US. Well, that's inevitable because the number of tests in the US is so much higher. I say this about everyone, not just on this board: the doom and gloom crowd will find numbers that seem to support their story. And more importantly, it doesn't help the general public's understanding of facts.

The Prime Minister of the UK is in the ICU. They keep saying its just a precaution but it looks like things took a turn for the worst.

He's only 55 years old. Not exactly geriatric.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2440911]The Prime Minister of the UK is in the ICU. They keep saying its just a precaution but it looks like things took a turn for the worst.

He's only 55 years old. Not exactly geriatric.[/QUOTE]Seems serious. If he can get it, anyone can. Not sure if he had lots of contact with the job but in any event, nobody is safe.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2440787]

Using just the numbers, and the rates of increase or decrease, paints a pretty bad picture. Especially in the US at the moment.[/QUOTE]Zeos, if you look at numbers as in total numbers and expected deaths coming up, things look badly I agree. Two of my Facebook friends have been hit now which sucks. They are both around Chicago.

From a new cases POV though, things are looking up. We have below 30,000 cases the last two days in the USA In the world, we hopefully have peaked at 100,000 new cases in a day. Last two days have been at 70,000+.

Then in Colombia, the worst day was March 31 with 159 cases. The last two days there have been only 70+ cases.

Hopefully, fingers crossed, the new cases continues to decline. Sadly, the number of deaths in the next 2 weeks will probably be the most yet.

[QUOTE=ChuchoLoco;2440939]Seems serious. If he can get it, anyone can. Not sure if he had lots of contact with the job but in any event, nobody is safe.[/QUOTE]Just days before he tested positive he was bragging about shaking hands with patients who had COVID-19. I'm afraid Boris isn't the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2441085]The absolute number of tests in US is high. But unfortunately these numbers are a bit misleading. It does not represent people tested. Because many people require 3 tests (1 to confirm it, 2 to provide all clear when it is over). Healthcare workers, etc. Also on a per capita basis US is in the middle of the pack worldwide. The other thing. Same as here in Canada. They are not testing people with symptoms that don't need medical care. They are told to go home and self isolate (by law). So who knows if increased testing is overestimating the growth in numbers of cases (as some are claiming), or if less testing is actually being done relative to the cases.

Also a disturbing thing on numbers of deaths. New York is not counting people who die outside the hospital who were not confirmed cases. The numbers of those is estimated in the low hundreds per day. Anyway. Hopefully the curve is really flattening. We all really need that.[/QUOTE]Exactly my point. Inaccurate numbers are worthless. And can be misleading. Point well taken on the number of tests. Most states are reporting new cases, which seems like a fair metric. But as you rightly point out, suspected cases which do not have very serious symptoms are not always tested. But, for some reason (obviously financial,) some people, particularly the media and political figures are promoting this as Armageddon. They claim to know that certain locales will peak in August. Yet, those same models missed their projections in NY by 500%! Worse, I now see some municipalities reporting assumed cases. You would think that might be some calculation on those with symptoms but are not tested? But no, it's an assumption that for every positive test, there are 9 asymptomatic carriers out there that haven't been tested. Even the disclaimers are comical. They state this is just to inform the public of how widespread this might be.

I'm not discounting the real danger, the real contagious nature and the lethality of this disease. But my patience with the outright hysteria painted by some (and it is occurring in liberal and conservative quarters) is just about gone.

Don't even get me started on hydroxychloroquine. CNN told me today that "doctors are hoarding these drugs". Generally, pharmacies dispense the drugs, no? I know that seems like a bit of semantics. But it is just another example of the media playing on the public's emotions at a time of crisis.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2441151]Exactly my point. Inaccurate numbers are worthless. And can be misleading. Point well taken on the number of tests. Most states are reporting new cases, which seems like a fair metric. But as you rightly point out, suspected cases which do not have very serious symptoms are not always tested. But, for some reason (obviously financial,) some people, particularly the media and political figures are promoting this as Armageddon. They claim to know that certain locales will peak in August. Yet, those same models missed their projections in NY by 500%! Worse, I now see some municipalities reporting assumed cases. You would think that might be some calculation on those with symptoms but are not tested? But no, it's an assumption that for every positive test, there are 9 asymptomatic carriers out there that haven't been tested. Even the disclaimers are comical. They state this is just to inform the public of how widespread this might be.

I'm not discounting the real danger, the real contagious nature and the lethality of this disease. But my patience with the outright hysteria painted by some (and it is occurring in liberal and conservative quarters) is just about gone.

Don't even get me started on hydroxychloroquine. CNN told me today that "doctors are hoarding these drugs". Generally, pharmacies dispense the drugs, no? I know that seems like a bit of semantics. But it is just another example of the media playing on the public's emotions at a time of crisis.[/QUOTE]Someone in the past called it "the fog of war". Who knows whether numbers are high or low or forecasts especially are high or low. For any country. All we can do is wish for the best. And do what we can do. That is not spread it and try not to catch it.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2441069]Just days before he tested positive he was bragging about shaking hands with patients who had COVID-19. I'm afraid Boris isn't the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree.[/QUOTE]If that's the case, then he should be in the psyche unit next.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2441069]Just days before he tested positive he was bragging about shaking hands with patients who had COVID-19. I'm afraid Boris isn't the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree.[/QUOTE]If this is true, shaking hands (bareback) I'm assuming with infected patients, than he deserves what he got as cynical as that may sound. However I do hope he survives, at least for his young pregnant wife. Unbelievable what he did bare-backing (handshake) a COVID-19 patient if true.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2441204]Someone in the past called it "the fog of war". Who knows whether numbers are high or low or forecasts especially are high or low. For any country. All we can do is wish for the best. And do what we can do. That is not spread it and try not to catch it.[/QUOTE]That's an apt description. You don't rush into battle assuming your enemy is weak and easily defeated. You err on the side of caution.

Everyone remember Three Mile Island? I had to sit through a detailed "lessons learned" training on the partial meltdown. They had a reasonably minor situation, but nobody trusted the numbers (the readings from their instruments). They couldn't be right, it didn't make sense. If they had believed the numbers, the problem wouldn't have even made the news. Instead, they did the opposite of what the readings indicated they should do. The readings got worse, and still they believed the problem was with the numbers. This continued until a minor problem became the #1 news topic in the world. Finally at that point someone asked "what if the numbers are right?" Five minutes later, the readings started returning to normal. By then it was too late. There had been a partial meltdown and radioactive release.

Consular Affairs' Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Brownlee warns Americans overseas should act now to get out of harm's way.

[URL]https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/1247959230939910146[/URL]

My bullshit meter is going off the scale now. Is he saying all international travel will be suspended indefinitely? There's something much bigger coming down the pike besides this bullshit virus, that's my 2 pesos.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2441486]Consular Affairs' Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Brownlee warns Americans overseas should act now to get out of harm's way.

[URL]https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/1247959230939910146[/URL]

My bullshit meter is going off the scale now. Is he saying all international travel will be suspended indefinitely? There's something much bigger coming down the pike besides this bullshit virus, that's my 2 pesos.[/QUOTE]Did we see the same video?

He said that the chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely.

Please understand a video before posting "The sky is falling" comments.

[QUOTE=TomJackin;2441490]Did we see the same video?

He said that the chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely.

Please understand a video before posting "The sky is falling" comments.[/QUOTE]"chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely. ".

I understood it as, get your ass home now, because it's very likely, very soon, that you ass is going to be stuck where its at. Because there will not be any more flights to the US. That's what I got from the video. Did I miss something?

What did you get?

[QUOTE=TyDown;2441493]"chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely. ".

I understood it as, get your ass home now, because it's very likely, very soon, that you ass is going to be stuck where its at. Because there will not be any more flights to the US. That's what I got from the video. Did I miss something?

What did you get?[/QUOTE]You can interpret it many different ways LOL. My thought is they're giving Americans a chance to come home at the moment. If things get worse like they are thinking will happen, then your ass is going to be stuck wherever you are. Well not necessarily stuck, but unable to get back to the US. It's a gamble that's for sure. Unless you are stuck somewhere that is dealing with the issue just fine.

Shout out to Mojo for posting up this thread!! I cannot imagine having to read through all of this shit on the Medellin reports section LOL. Well done young lad.

This is not what he said.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2441486] Is he saying all international travel will be suspended indefinitely? [/QUOTE]This is.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2441493]"chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely. "[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Nounce;2441505]This is not what he said.

This is.[/QUOTE]The point he was making: the chartered flights that are organized and operated by the State Dept are ending. There were hundreds of Americans stuck in countries with no commercial flights out of the countries. The State Department chartered several flights. Peru had the most that I'm aware of. The message was simple. Those chartered flights are ending so there may be no way out. I don't say that as a scare tactic. He is just saying this is the last chance.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2441151]

Don't even get me started on hydroxychloroquine. CNN told me today that "doctors are hoarding these drugs". Generally, pharmacies dispense the drugs, no? I know that seems like a bit of semantics. But it is just another example of the media playing on the public's emotions at a time of crisis.[/QUOTE]If you google it, this is a common way of saying the doctors are writing prescriptions for themselves or family members.

[QUOTE=Uthred;2441502]You can interpret it many different ways LOL. My thought is they're giving Americans a chance to come home at the moment. If things get worse like they are thinking will happen, then your ass is going to be stuck wherever you are. Well not necessarily stuck, but unable to get back to the US. It's a gamble that's for sure. Unless you are stuck somewhere that is dealing with the issue just fine.[/QUOTE]Yep you're right. I find this kind of shit disturbing. I like to go anywhere I want to, when I want to. This is unprecedented times. Over a fucking virus huh?

One has to ask oneself, Why are they destroying the Global economy? Because they're concerned about our health? Hahahaa whatever. IMO, there is a fundamental shift happening. Maybe a Polar reversal? Climate Change? Giant Meteor? Impeach 45? Russia? Who the fuck knows.

Stay safe, fire up the grill and have a cold one! Peace.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2441505]This is not what he said.

This is.[/QUOTE]Describe "Charter".

[QUOTE=TyDown;2441517]Describe "Charter".[/QUOTE]

Something like this

https://co.usembassy.gov/april-fifteen-spirit-airlines/

[QUOTE=Nounce;2441511]If you google it, this is a common way of saying the doctors are writing prescriptions for themselves or family members.[/QUOTE]Point #1: CNN tells us the drug is a Trump scam. Yet they also claim it's being hoarded by medical professionals. Which is it?

Point #2: you think doctors write enough prescriptions to family members to cause a national shortage? Even if that were true, their DEA number is attached to everything they write.

Lastly, even if that was the case, which I don't buy, how in the world would a news outlet accurately run an investigation to make that determination in a matter of days? They didn't. It's just another play on people's emotions by our beloved media.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2441518]Something like this

https://co.usembassy.gov/april-fifteen-spirit-airlines/[/QUOTE]This means War.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2441523]Point #1: CNN tells us the drug is a Trump scam. Yet they also claim it's being hoarded by medical professionals. Which is it?

Point #2: you think doctors write enough prescriptions to family members to cause a national shortage? Even if that were true, their DEA number is attached to everything they write.

Lastly, even if that was the case, which I don't buy, how in the world would a news outlet accurately run an investigation to make that determination in a matter of days? They didn't. It's just another play on people's emotions by our beloved media.[/QUOTE]CNN is Fake News, So many people being saved by Trump Pills now, They Shall be one of the keys to beating this virus.

I got my Trump pills for $33 over the counter. But very hard to find now.

Pompeo made the same announcement 3 weeks ago after a number of Americans began publicly and bitterly criticizing the State Department because they were unable to get consular services or even contact embassies. That support in a time of need is of course one of the reasons for federal taxes. The Trump administration recognized the political vulnerability they faces over the prospect of Americans dying offshore for lack of government support. The earlier announcement and this one is a way to forestall the damage by being able to say "well we told you to go back to America so now you are on your own". By the way in Colombia today's flight leaves from Bogota. If you don't happen to be in Bogota it is not easy to get there. Also, priority was given to people based on health risk amd anyone judged to be too sick will not be allowed to board. Finally, once the flight reaches Atlanta you are once again on your own if you don't happen to live in Atlanta. Finally, you have to sign a promissory note to pay the cost of the flight but that cost is to he determined at a later date. I guess it could be worth it if you really must be in the US as soon as possible, the place where more people are being infected and dying than anywhere else.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2441493]"chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely."

I understood it as, get your ass home now, because it's very likely, very soon, that you ass is going to be stuck where its at. Because there will not be any more flights to the US. That's what I got from the video. Did I miss something?

What did you get?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Woodman09;2441533]CNN is Fake News, So many people being saved by Trump Pills now, They Shall be one of the keys to beating this virus.

I got my Trump pills for $33 over the counter. But very hard to find now.[/QUOTE]Trump pills? LOL I do believe a true study is needed. But I just laugh at those that discount the demonstrated effectiveness just because Trump mentioned it. It's TDS at its finest.

Here's a story that has to blow their mind:

[URL]https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/08/fact-check-did-michigan-dem-credit-trump-her-covid-19-recovery/2967210001/[/URL]

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2441618]Trump pills? LOL I do believe a true study is needed. But I just laugh at those that discount the demonstrated effectiveness just because Trump mentioned it. It's TDS at its finest.

Here's a story that has to blow their mind:

[URL]https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/08/fact-check-did-michigan-dem-credit-trump-her-covid-19-recovery/2967210001/[/URL][/QUOTE]It's incredible to me. There's the whole world basically. And then there's the Trumpists. The facts about everything are different with the Trumpists. Anyway. I don't have a dog in this race. I'm not an American. But it's all politics in the US. And arguments about shit. Meanwhile the US is going through the worst outcome in the world with this epidemic. The pill he is pushing may be good, it may not be. It could help save lives. But it won't come close to denting the impact as long as people don't stay home basically and not spread this thing to other people. And that has not happened because everyone is arguing about all the "distractions" being thrown out there.

Good luck to all of you. I hope most of you are still alive to argue about this stuff after this is all done.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2441523]
Point #2: you think doctors write enough prescriptions to family members to cause a national shortage? Even if that were true, their DEA number is attached to everything they write.

Lastly, even if that was the case, which I don't buy, how in the world would a news outlet accurately run an investigation to make that determination in a matter of days? They didn't. It's just another play on people's emotions by our beloved media.[/QUOTE]I can observe the problem CNN has. There are plenty of examples that one can use to trash them but I think this one is not because it is reported widely by all news organizations. I think what you doing to CNN in this example is similar to what CNN is doing to Trump.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2441649]It's incredible to me. There's the whole world basically. And then there's the Trumpists. The facts about everything are different with the Trumpists. Anyway. I don't have a dog in this race. I'm not an American. But it's all politics in the US. And arguments about shit. Meanwhile the US is going through the worst outcome in the world with this epidemic. The pill he is pushing may be good, it may not be. It could help save lives. But it won't come close to denting the impact as long as people don't stay home basically and not spread this thing to other people. And that has not happened because everyone is arguing about all the "distractions" being thrown out there.

Good luck to all of you. I hope most of you are still alive to argue about this stuff after this is all done.[/QUOTE]Don't know if you are from a EU country, but as a matter of fact the US is doing far better than EU on this despite the media distractions. US media has completely lost their credibility. This started before Trump but has escalated dramatically as Trump is a disruptive force with a disruptive mandate from people fed up with the status quo. He is also a person that relishes that antagonism and plays to that with the media. I for one take anything the US media says with a grain of salt. And that's a pity because there are so few sources of accurate information and that is giving the propagandists plenty of room.

Back to Covid-19, the US is like 6 x the population of the average European large country. There have been 12 k deaths so far.

Current modeling says 61 k deaths and there is reason to believe we can come in even lower than that. The UK alone is expected to exceed that number. So I would disagree with your premise that the US is much more affected.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2441649]It's incredible to me. There's the whole world basically. And then there's the Trumpists. The facts about everything are different with the Trumpists. Anyway. I don't have a dog in this race. I'm not an American. But it's all politics in the US. And arguments about shit. Meanwhile the US is going through the worst outcome in the world with this epidemic. The pill he is pushing may be good, it may not be. It could help save lives. But it won't come close to denting the impact as long as people don't stay home basically and not spread this thing to other people. And that has not happened because everyone is arguing about all the "distractions" being thrown out there.

Good luck to all of you. I hope most of you are still alive to argue about this stuff after this is all done.[/QUOTE]Not sure if I'm considered a Trumpist. LOL In reality, I'm not. He has many flaws. And I agree with you that Trump has some of his following willing to suspend reality just because he said so. I would contend there are even more people who discount everything he says, simply because he said it. This drug is exactly that. It is discounted simply because Trump mentioned it, so it cuts both ways.

As for the predicament the US is in. To date, our number of infected, number of hospital beds needed, number of ventilators needed, our number of deaths. All have been just a small fraction of what was projected. And one thing everyone agreees on is that by and large, Americans have maintained social distancing well and that is by far the biggest reason we've outperformed projections. We can absolutely fight viciously, but that doesn't mean we aren't adhering to the orders.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2441662]I can observe the problem CNN has. There are plenty of examples that one can use to trash them but I think this one is not because it is reported widely by all news organizations. I think what you doing to CNN in this example is similar to what CNN is doing to Trump.[/QUOTE]I agree with most of what you said. But I don't give a lot of credence to it being widely reported in other outlets. Sadly, journalism is dead. There are so few investigative journalists now. What we're left with are a bunch of good looking parrots that stick to bumper sticker slogans. And in fairness, that is our own fault. As a community, we take those headlines and don't try to think for ourselves. Add to that the ratings game within "news" organizations. And we're left with what we have: biased and partisan slanted news organizations, both on the left and right. And I don't see that changing until we as a community start thinking critically and stop being spoon fed.

War is a strong word. The Pompeo aide who elaborated on the second announcement of the humanitarian flights that are being referred to as charters here on ISG emphasized Latin America as a region Americans should evacuate. I believe that was a reference to the Trump administration's earlier announcements about Nicolas Maduro and Venezuela, and US military movements in the region.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2441525]This means War.[/QUOTE]

Yesterday Hong Kong started testing all International arriving passengers, and are also requiring a mandatory 14-day quarantine even for those who test negative.

Interesting and I suppose a way to start opening Countries up again. With the mandatory 14 day quarantine though that's not going to open the Country up to tourism.

It will be interesting to see how Colombia open's back up moving forward short of a vaccine or immunity certificate.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2441509]The point he was making: the chartered flights that are organized and operated by the State Dept are ending. There were hundreds of Americans stuck in countries with no commercial flights out of the countries. The State Department chartered several flights. Peru had the most that I'm aware of. The message was simple. Those chartered flights are ending so there may be no way out. I don't say that as a scare tactic. He is just saying this is the last chance.[/QUOTE]I agree, and Peru pissed a lot of people off with how they did things. When the USA starts handing out loans via IMF or the World Bank, they may be last in line.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2441511]If you google it, this is a common way of saying the doctors are writing prescriptions for themselves or family members.[/QUOTE]Doctors typically are not allowed to write for themselves or family members. It is a stupid anti-doctor meme. Doctors are buying it to dispense to their patients because so many pharmacies are out of the drugs.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2441686]Not sure if I'm considered a Trumpist. LOL In reality, I'm not. He has many flaws. And I agree with you that Trump has some of his following willing to suspend reality just because he said so. I would contend there are even more people who discount everything he says, simply because he said it. This drug is exactly that. It is discounted simply because Trump mentioned it, so it cuts both ways.

As for the predicament the US is in. To date, our number of infected, number of hospital beds needed, number of ventilators needed, our number of deaths. All have been just a small fraction of what was projected. And one thing everyone agreees on is that by and large, Americans have maintained social distancing well and that is by far the biggest reason we've outperformed projections. We can absolutely fight viciously, but that doesn't mean we aren't adhering to the orders.[/QUOTE]I don't know that I would characterize it the way you have. The projections for the whole thing are a long way from known so far. The US is still early in the cycle. But. I guess my point was that emphasis on social distancing, staying at home, etc. Is far more useful than arguing about drugs or blaming people. Even blaming Trump doesn't help anyone at this point. I would love to see him lead the country to do the things that need to be done. It could save a lot of lives still. And that would be a lot better outcome for people than seeing him fail.

As for the drug. Every medical person I have heard interviewed has said it has some promise. But that it needs to be tested for this application to see if it is helpful or harmful. And that sort of testing doesn't have to take a long time. It is being done right now. He's looking for something positive to say. I get that. But it isn't too likely that this drug, even if it is moderately effective, is going to change the outcome of this epidemic in the short and medium term.

I'll tell you what's going to happen in the US.

Federal government is going to fuck it up. You can't have a deluded bankrupt "businessman" manage any of this. But he's a TV personality so some people will lap it up. State governments are going to be key. Some of them are going to deal with this better than most. Big cities are going to be hit hardest. Human epidemics are born of cities.

By the summer things will start to get better. Most countries will use a "graduated" system of opening things up. We'll have a second and possibly third wave. Borders will close again. Isolation will be used and the work intensive contact tracing will happen again without much success because of the two week incubation period. Within two years we'll build up the herd immunity or have a working vaccine.

If you think you're going to be banging Colombian chicas by the summer you should realign your expectations. Investing right now is going to be great.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2441737]The US is still early in the cycle. But. I guess my point was that emphasis on social distancing, staying at home, etc. Is far more useful than arguing about drugs or blaming people.[/QUOTE]I am truly not trying to argue here. I guess the lockdown is making me ornery. LOL But I disagree. The US numbers, by and large, are at a plateau or even decreasing slightly in some locations. And they did more than just miss the projections. They missed by threefold or fivefold. Yes, social distancing brought these numbers down. But now what? The virus hasn't disappeared. Short of a vaccine, it will not. Without it, the number will not get to zero. It won't be close to zero. So the question is, what did social distancing gain us? Time?

Certainly. But we're still at least a year off from a vaccine. So what is the interim plan? Social distance for 12 more months? The world would never be the same. Governments will fall. People around the world are struggling to feed their families. In 12 months, can you imagine what will occur socially? So yes, drugs are absolutely critical. Big if, but if hydroxychloroquine works, or if these engineered antibodies can be manufactured, that's our only hope. The only other option is herd immunity, which would happen but with horrific casualty numbers. My bigger point is that social distancing was a pause, not a cure.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2441742]I'll tell you what's going to happen in the US.

Federal government is going to fuck it up. You can't have a deluded bankrupt "businessman" manage any of this. But he's a TV personality so some people will lap it up. State governments are going to be key. Some of them are going to deal with this better than most. Big cities are going to be hit hardest. Human epidemics are born of cities.

By the summer things will start to get better. Most countries will use a "graduated" system of opening things up. We'll have a second and possibly third wave. Borders will close again. Isolation will be used and the work intensive contact tracing will happen again without much success because of the two week incubation period. Within two years we'll build up the herd immunity or have a working vaccine.

If you think you're going to be banging Colombian chicas by the summer you should realign your expectations. Investing right now is going to be great.[/QUOTE]I mostly agree. But reality is no government, federal or state, will solve this. It'll be a medical breakthrough by private outfits that solve this. I agree, there will be what appear to be waves. But the virus is not going away. The only thing that a federal or state government can do is try to keep the calm by balancing quarantines vs completely obliterating the global economy. And frankly, I don't like their chances.

Invest? Hahaha. Where in the world would you invest at this point. We should invest in ourselves. There will be opportunities through this crisis. We should invest in ourselves to be prepared to seize those opportunities.

As for Colombia. Who knows? I imagine we'll see a varied response from all countries. Some will seal off borders as best they can for 2 years. Some will open much sooner. But also lost in this conversation is global trade. Very few countries, if any are currently self sufficient. Like it or not, global trade compounds the problems.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2441742]I'll tell you what's going to happen in the US.

[/QUOTE]Thank the father of jesus that we have an expert on the US on the Colombia hooker board!

I'm stuck in the US waiting for my next trip. Would anybody care to speculate on when things will open back up for tourists to Colombia?

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2441649]Meanwhile the US is going through the worst outcome in the world with this epidemic.[/QUOTE]That is true if you believe the data from China is accurate. I don't. It does not fit what is being seen everywhere else in the world, and I thought that before the CIA made news saying the same thing.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2441649]The pill he is pushing may be good, it may not be. It could help save lives. But it won't come close to denting the impact as long as people don't stay home basically and not spread this thing to other people. And that has not happened because everyone is arguing about all the "distractions" being thrown out there.[/QUOTE]I think it is way too early to be saying definitively what works and what does not. I do not know where social distancing saves lives. The goal was to delay the viral spread, to flatten the curve so that the medical system was not overrun. I doubt that is going to happen now. A lot of hospitals are empty because so may elective procedures were delayed.

One thing you have to remember is the "experts" are just so designated that way by the media. People like myself who have dealt with the "experts" have been struck again and again with how wrong they have been, but this is not a conspiracy. What I see is "experts" making projections that politically give them cover. You always overestimate danger rather than underestimate it and then take credit for the actions you embarked on. In fact, the CDC has already done that. Often times, the "experts" do not know what they are talking about because they are presented with questions that have no answers like here. How do you stop the spread of a virus the likes of which the world has never seen before?

The cab driver in Cartagena who was put down in Colombia's covid-19 deaths tested negative for the virus. He was driving a person who tested + for the virus in his cab who was from Italy. The cab driver's sister tested +, but the dead cab driver did not. The point is that cause of death from Covid-19 with this man was an OPINION, and it show everyone that these are not real numbers but estimates. To me, they are better than nothing but not much better than nothing and to make any broad statement about what does and does not work is way premature.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2441649]Good luck to all of you. I hope most of you are still alive to argue about this stuff after this is all done.[/QUOTE]Yeah, well, I looked up the sensitivity and specificity of the testing last night. The specificity is great, but the sensitivity is God awful. To me, that means the virus is way more contagious than anyone has mentioned and is way less deadly. I suspect that a lot more people have had and are over the virus than anyone has mentioned.

My suspicion for the exponential decline in number of cases then is herd immunity, and all this talk about what was done or not done is kind of mute.

[QUOTE=ShadowJ;2441764]I'm stuck in the US waiting for my next trip. Would anybody care to speculate on when things will open back up for tourists to Colombia?[/QUOTE]

JPMorgan used prediction models based on other viruses for the USA and estimated the shut ins will be over May 22, and I think June 6 is when the all clear sign will be given. I looked for that article and could not find it.

Colombia has two things against and for opening up that I see. They really need the money from trade. Unlike the USA, they do not have the world's printing press at their disposal. On the other, they have far fewer ventilators so they have to be careful because of that.

My wild ass guess is 1% in April, 50% chance in May, 75% in June, and 99% by July.

Now you have Fauci under the 80,000 flu deaths in 2017.

[URL]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dr-fauci-says-us-covid-19-us-deaths-could-be-low-60k-after-warning-millions-could-die[/URL]

And in the article is all the good social distancing did. Sigh.

Well, yesterday, NYC Mayor de Blasio said that, after a few days of near capacity numbers, hospitalizations have dropped by such a steep degree that the city believes it has enough ventilators on hand, and won't need any more.

Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he's "cautiously optimistic" that the US might soon see cases reach the back-side of the curve as the "turnaround and that curve not only flatten, but are coming down. ".

So much for those "established numbers" you were talking about.

I have one more prediction. I think when all is said and done. What we did with "social distancing" and most all the other interventions didn't do shit with regards to the virus spreading or not. I think the rapid peak and fall have everything to do with the nature of the virus and our immunity. The world clamored for expert advice, and this is what we were given, and my bet is that it didn't matter at all.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2441774]Any big cap index in the western world is going to rebound 30% in a years time. There are lots of other undervalued individual stocks but if you want to grab a bunch I suggest an ETF that invests in telecoms in the short term and tourism in the longer term.[/QUOTE]No doubt the potential is everywhere. But I believe this is a longer term issue. If and when wave 2 comes through, it will psychologically cripple any growth. And depending on how we react as a society, it could take a decade for the markets to return to where we were. I hope I am dead wrong.

I have to apologize to YippieKayay for accidentally deleting his post. It was a great post on investing right now! I was going to respond and agree with him. Respond and Delete are right next to each other on this end and I accidentally hit delete. I am not a good moderator!


Investors call investing right now "buying at the dip". This could be a once in a couple of decade chance to buy this low, especially when we actually know why the market is down and can reasonably assume that it is going to go up when the world goes back to normal.

Thread: Cartagena Reports.

Yesterday 19:06#9664.

LoveItHere69 LoveItHere69 is offline.

Senior Member.

Posts: 60.

New. Flights to USA.

Location: Bogot, Cali, Cartagena, Medellin.

Event: Humanitarian Flights to Fort Lauderdale on April 15 and 16 - Operated by Spirit Airlines.

The USA Embassy is pleased announce that Spirit Airlines will operate three humanitarian flights. Two flights will depart April 15, one from El Dorado International Airport (BOG) in Bogot and a second flight from Rafael andez International Airport (CTG) in Cartagena. A third flight will depart April 16 from Alfonso Bonilla Aragand International Airport (CLO) in Cali, and then board additional passengers in Jos Mara crdova International Airport (MDE) in Medellin. All three flights will arrive at Fort Lauderdale. Hollywood International Airport (FLL) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

These flights have been made available to allow USA Citizens and Legal Permanent Residents to return to the United States. Please contact Spirit Airlines directly for seat availability, reservations, and pricing information.

These flights can only be booked online.

If you are interested in returning to the United States, please take advantage of these flights. The USA Government cannot guarantee the ability to arrange flights indefinitely. USA Citizens should return immediately to the United States, unless you are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period.

If you purchase a ticket on one of these flights, and encounter difficulties traveling to the airport from your location, please contact us at [EMAIL]ColombiaEvac@state.gov[/EMAIL] or (57) 1 275-2000. We have received reports that taxis and bus companies continue to operate, albeit at reduced and limited schedules. If you believe you will have difficulty reaching the airport due to travel restrictions, please provide us with your travel information (name, date of birth, passport number, and contact details).

IMPORTANT:

Due to current travel guidelines in the United States, persons who have been in China, Iran, or certain European countries within 14 days prior to the flight will not be allowed to board this flight.

Onward connections from Fort Lauderdale, Florida are available.

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2441693]War is a strong word. The Pompeo aide who elaborated on the second announcement of the humanitarian flights that are being referred to as charters here on ISG emphasized Latin America as a region Americans should evacuate. I believe that was a reference to the Trump administration's earlier announcements about Nicolas Maduro and Venezuela, and US military movements in the region.[/QUOTE]Good point. This has been on the chalk boards for awhile, and now it's going live. There is a US Navy Task Force in the Caribbean Sea, and also another US Navy Task Force in the Pacific. Looks like Central America is locked down. Maduro is going down. What do you make of it?


EDIT; apologies for the poor image quality, caught it on the run.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2441773]Now you have Fauci under the 80,000 flu deaths in 2017.

[URL]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dr-fauci-says-us-covid-19-us-deaths-could-be-low-60k-after-warning-millions-could-die[/URL]

And in the article is all the good social distancing did. Sigh.

Well, yesterday, NYC Mayor de Blasio said that, after a few days of near capacity numbers, hospitalizations have dropped by such a steep degree that the city believes it has enough ventilators on hand, and won't need any more.

Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he's "cautiously optimistic" that the US might soon see cases reach the back-side of the curve as the "turnaround and that curve not only flatten, but are coming down. ".

So much for those "established numbers" you were talking about..[/QUOTE]All I can say is I hope your optimism is warranted.

I attended a funeral yesterday. By "attended a funeral" I mean I commented on the picture of the casket taken just before it was lowered in the grave. There were no mourners, although the deceased lived a long life and had, not only a large family, but a huge circle of friends. There will maybe be a wake in July. Until then we're all limited to sharing stories, about an incredible life, on Facebook.

The deceased had been living in a nursing home. While many nursing homes and assisted living facilities have been hard hit, this one should have been low risk. It's in a small town, in a sparsely populated area, and most of the population considers a 50 mile trip world travel. Yet, the virus made its way there.

To the best of my knowledge, no other residents have been tested. None of the other area nursing homes have been tested either. My guess is that in 4-6 weeks there will be a lot of vacancies. Maybe not.

Another core person in my life is currently in NYC, helping out as an RN. Fortunately, she's not in the high risk group.

I firmly believe, in February, when nearly everyone seemed to be downplaying the risk, if the US had aggressively worked to limit the spread, one person would still be alive today. We'll never know who may have survived, we'll only know who didn't.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2441845]All I can say is I hope your optimism is warranted.
[/QUOTE]So a couple of things. The NYC ventilator shortage was pure political bullshit: [URL]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/look-how-ridiculously-wrong-all-covid-19-models-were[/URL]#comment_stream.

COVID-19 cases have no objective, defined cause of death, and this doctor was saying that the CDC was pumping up the numbers on it: [URL]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/whistleblower-how-cdc-manipulating-covid-19-death-toll[/URL].

Then the other thing that is important is how the sensitivity of the covid testing is: [URL]https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html[/URL].

When it comes to the data, you can throw all the models in the trash. We do not know the number of people who really died of the virus, and the percentage of people who have the virus who died, and even how many people really have or have had coronavirus. The numbers whatever you want it to be.

If there is an optimistic thing, it is the poor sensitivity of the test. What this tells me is the virus was waaay more contagious than anyone thought it was but it was also not that deadly.

Anyway, my guess now is that the reason we are seeing the plateau and then the decline has more to do with human immunity than social distancing, but it is just a guess. The immune system is way more complicated than just if you have antibodies to Covid.

I think we do see things get back to normal in late May as economics overtakes the fear of the virus. In all honesty, it probably was just much, much more contagious and not that more deadly than the seasonal flu.

I think we see travel resume in late May, early June now.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2441845]
I firmly believe, in February, when nearly everyone seemed to be downplaying the risk, if the US had aggressively worked to limit the spread, one person would still be alive today. We'll never know who may have survived, we'll only know who didn't.[/QUOTE]Well, I guess we will find out, but my guess, and it is just a guess, is that the spread of the virus has a hell of a lot more to do with the nature of the immune system and the nature of the virus than anything the "experts" told us to do.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2442064]. In all honesty, it probably was just much, much more contagious and not that more deadly than the seasonal flu.

I think we see travel resume in late May, early June now.[/QUOTE]I do not know what you read or where you live but I watch the New York City local news every day lately and the morgues in NYC are over capacity and mass graves are being dug on Hart Island in NYC. And you still want to say that this was not more deadly than the flu? Do you watch the news? Italy was putting people on ice rinks when they ran out of room at their morgues and you say it is no more deadly than the common flu?? You live in a bubble of information that you must be cultivating all on your own. Seasonal flu kills 1/10th of 1 percent of the people who contract it. It does not overflow the morgues. Right now the mortality rate in the state of New York is over 4% which means that even if actually people how have the disease is 400 times the reported number than this is still killing people at rate 10 times more than seasonal flu.

[URL]https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html[/URL]

Social distancing is the only thing slowing this thing down period. No One has immunity to this. No one. There is some mystery why some younger and otherwise healthy people are dying from it but.

Common sense on why NYC got hit hard. Besides it being a place that has thousands of arriving people every day. It is a city that is the opposite of social distancing. When I fly into NYC (imagine I have the virus as I make my trip) I pick flight going in to either Newark in Jersey or JFK. Why because I hate surface transportation in NYC where the traffic sucks, So I get in a air train with about 10 other people (touching contaminating handles and poles the whole time) to take to the train station where we then get on various trains (myself and all the people I spread it to on the airtrain) into a commuter train car holding 20 or so people who will be breathing the same recycled air as us (in each train car that all ten of us got on) then us and all the people we contaminate along the way as commuter train makes its way to Penn Station and people at get off and people get on at the stops along the way. Then I and the up to as many 200 people who have been contaminated by now (10 on air train) x (20 in each of their train cars) and then we all go get on various subway cars that are packed with like 30 to fifty people. Who may then be going to catch a connecting subway or a bus to get the final destination. As we empty out of the subway other come in and tough all the handles that we did etc etc. Even walking down seventh, fifth or sixth avenue you are going to be standing in a crowd of 30 people waiting for a walk sign.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2442069]Well, I guess we will find out, but my guess, and it is just a guess, is that the spread of the virus has a hell of a lot more to do with the nature of the immune system and the nature of the virus than anything the "experts" told us to do.[/QUOTE]My guess is your guess is wrong.

We now have a control group regarding the spread of the disease: The USS Theodore Roosevelt.

It represents an enclosed environment and the entire crew has been tested. Of the 4800,448 have tested positive. Another 800 are waiting on test results.

If, as you stated, the disease is much more communicable than the flu, which affects around 17% of the population each year, there should be 2,000 or more positive results.

In other news, it turns out China isn't the only country whose numbers can't be trusted. Yesterday I found out the nursing home I earlier mentioned, has 11 more positive cases. Yet, those cases aren't included in the county, state or national stats. The death on Tuesday also hasn't been added to the tally. That's at least 12 uncounted cases in a town of 1,400.

Then today I saw this:

[URL]https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/more-2-200-coronavirus-deaths-nursing-homes-federal-government-isn-n1181026[/URL]

So our death tally is off by over 20%. Our confirmed cases tally is also well short of what's reported.

Which begs the question, are the numbers really dropping? Have we reached that plateau? Or are the numbers being manipulated?

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2442064]So a couple of things. The NYC ventilator shortage was pure political bullshit: [URL]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/look-how-ridiculously-wrong-all-covid-19-models-were[/URL]#comment_stream.

COVID-19 cases have no objective, defined cause of death, and this doctor was saying that the CDC was pumping up the numbers on it: [URL]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/whistleblower-how-cdc-manipulating-covid-19-death-toll[/URL].

Then the other thing that is important is how the sensitivity of the covid testing is: [URL]https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html[/URL].

When it comes to the data, you can throw all the models in the trash. We do not know the number of people who really died of the virus, and the percentage of people who have the virus who died, and even how many people really have or have had coronavirus. The numbers whatever you want it to be.

If there is an optimistic thing, it is the poor sensitivity of the test. What this tells me is the virus was waaay more contagious than anyone thought it was but it was also not that deadly..[/QUOTE]Elvis, this is an impressive post. I am not in any way in the medical field. But I have spent a lot of my time recently reading about the virus. My background is loosely in data analytics. Personally, I have strong feelings that nearly all of the numbers, models and estimates are truly worthless. Worse, the numbers are being intentionally skewed to inflate fear. The media is probably an unknowing participant. But the CDC, WHO, and state DHS teams should know better. And I think back now months ago to what Fauci said. It may have been his most true statement and clearly foreshadowing. Paraphrasing: 'If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing. ' It is like your local weatherman who interrupts TV programming for 2 hours about a single cell storm. They will milk their 15 minutes for all its worth. Don't get me wrong, they have a place and do play a critical role. But they run the risk of losing credibility when overreacting, or worse yet, skewing the numbers to promote their "fix."

I too was shocked when I read how the death numbers are being abused. Take a look at the number of heart attacks that aren't occurring all of a sudden. Posthumously, they are found to test positive. Yet, they were symptom free. No one knows when they had the virus. And there is nothing to prove the heart attack was caused by Covid. But there is Dr Birx, admitting that those are counted as Covid deaths.

I don't think this was all a hoax. But clearly, there has been a driving force to promote this virus as armageddon. Why? I don't know and that is what scares me.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442096]I do not know what you read or where you live but I watch the New York City local news every day lately and the morgues in NYC are over capacity and mass graves are being dug on Hart Island in NYC. And you still want to say that this was not more deadly than the flu? Do you watch the news? Italy was putting people on ice rinks when they ran out of room at their morgues and you say it is no more deadly than the common flu?? You live in a bubble of information that you must be cultivating all on your own. Seasonal flu kills 1/10th of 1 percent of the people who contract it. It does not overflow the morgues. Right now the mortality rate in the state of New York is over 4% which means that even if actually people how have the disease is 400 times the reported number than this is still killing people at rate 10 times more than seasonal flu.

[URL]https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html[/URL]

Social distancing is the only thing slowing this thing down period. No One has immunity to this. No one. There is some mystery why some younger and otherwise healthy people are dying from it but.

Common sense on why NYC got hit hard. Besides it being a place that has thousands of arriving people every day. It is a city that is the opposite of social distancing..[/QUOTE]Mojo,

I respect you a lot. And if you're in NYC, I feel for you. Ground zero. But the mortality rate is just not accurate. Yes, numbers are thrown out there. And simply, that is the number of deaths by number of confirmed cases. Why is that an invalid measurement? We have, by conservative estimates, 15-25% of the population that have this virus. There are number in Chicago from antibody testing that shows it might be as high as 50%. The point about mortality rate: we are vastly understating the number of people that have it. So why is the flu so low? We test everyone. Flu tests are a common practice. We are far more aware about who has the flu. Everyone that wants a test is tested. Now, we have people that have Covid that are not even given a test. It's just an invalid comparison.

That said, it doesn't make the human element of this story any better. You hear about people texting their goodbyes because they can't see family members. It's awful. But that doesn't make bad math any more valid.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2442069]Well, I guess we will find out, but my guess, and it is just a guess, is that the spread of the virus has a hell of a lot more to do with the nature of the immune system and the nature of the virus than anything the "experts" told us to do.[/QUOTE]Don't know what the heck you're thinking about or reading. But, unfortunately, there is a lot that is known about this virus. And the fact that we have no natural immunity by way of antibodies. Only the other defenses we all have. Getting an active case depends on being exposed to it, may depend to some extent on how much of the virus we were exposed to, and how our body handles it.

In any case we do know lots about how it spreads. And we know from following chains of infection (in some countries or areas they still know the source of every infection) what it takes to spread it. And, when you get people infected with it out interacting with other people it spreads. If they stay apart, and don't spread it through contaminating surfaces it does not spread. At least so little chance that it doesn't matter.

And doing those things works. There are countries and areas where it is not being spread at all, and new cases are all travelers coming in from other places.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442096]
Common sense on why NYC got hit hard. Besides it being a place that has thousands of arriving people every day. It is a city that is the opposite of social distancing. [/QUOTE]Another factor is the timing. There are several news reports comparing New York to California. Some thought California might have overreacted when the lock down was announced but so far California is doing better with a larger population. California has also announced the school will stay closed the rest of the school year. This morning I read the that New York City is trying to do the same but there is a power struggle going on there.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2442275]Don't know what the heck you're thinking about or reading. But, unfortunately, there is a lot that is known about this virus. And the fact that we have no natural immunity by way of antibodies. Only the other defenses we all have. Getting an active case depends on being exposed to it, may depend to some extent on how much of the virus we were exposed to, and how our body handles it.

In any case we do know lots about how it spreads. And we know from following chains of infection (in some countries or areas they still know the source of every infection) what it takes to spread it. And, when you get people infected with it out interacting with other people it spreads. If they stay apart, and don't spread it through contaminating surfaces it does not spread. At least so little chance that it doesn't matter.

And doing those things works. There are countries and areas where it is not being spread at all, and new cases are all travelers coming in from other places.[/QUOTE]I think it is not what we already know. It is what we don't know. One example is the face mask. All of a sudden it is recommended now, even by the experts who dismissed it earlier. Think about it, people in most Asian countries are already wearing face mask from the beginning. I am not saying they know more, but it is an attitude difference.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2442303]I think it is not what we already know. It is what we don't know. One example is the face mask. All of a sudden it is recommended now, even by the experts who dismissed it earlier. Think about it, people in most Asian countries are already wearing face mask from the beginning. I am not saying they know more, but it is an attitude difference.[/QUOTE]There was concern that recommending face masks would take them away from medical staff that needed them badly. Where they were in short supply. So I think that did play a part in the delay in recommending them for the general public.

The face masks help people not spread it when they have it. No one is arguing with that. What is in question. Still I think. Is whether they help protect you from the virus. For sure if someone sneezed or coughed in your face or close. That's why medical people have to have them. But at the 6 feet away distance it is questionable whether they protect or not. Could be. But certainly in closer quarters they would help not get infected. So yes, there is an issue as to why it took so long for experts to start recommending them. I think they were waiting for better proof. And didn't want to have a run on masks that would take them away from healthcare people.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2442303]I think it is not what we already know. It is what we don't know. One example is the face mask. All of a sudden it is recommended now, even by the experts who dismissed it earlier. Think about it, people in most Asian countries are already wearing face mask from the beginning. I am not saying they know more, but it is an attitude difference.[/QUOTE]There was a recent study that if an infected person sneezes or coughs instead of what they exhale / cough falling to the ground within six feet it can travel up to 26 feet.

Masks do help to reduce the transmission of the virus from a person who is infected and sneezes or coughs, but on the receiving end the masks the majority of the people are wearing do not filter out the majority of the particles. The N95 masks as they are called filter out 95% of particulates, hence the name N95, and they typically come in different sizes which you must be fitted for. Additionally, you cannot have any facial hair along the edges of where the mask fits on your face. So when I see someone with a beard wearing an N95 Mask the reality is vapors and particles can enter the sides of the mask.

In addition to the N95 masks, half face and full face respirators which can filter out 100 % particulates are even better than the disposable N95 masks.

I have two of these which are rated for 100 Particulate capture and wore one today while shopping in the supermarket. I got a lot of weird looks from the other shoppers, and if they think just wearing a mask like a surgical mask is protecting them if an infected person sneezes in close proximity to them they are susceptible.

Hence the need for N95 masks which basically are respirators that we have all heard on in the news.

[URL]https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-treatment-prevention-cure-vaccines/2020/4/11/21217693/coronavirus-treatments-hydroxychloroquine-remdesivir-side-effects-covid-19-studies[/URL]

"On a less optimistic note, France's drug-safety agency has released data indicating that hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malaria drug Trump has pushed as a potential miracle drug for treating Covid-19, appears to have serious side effects on the heart when used for Covid-19 patients, and should be used under medical supervision. The report details 43 cases of "heart incidents" tied to hydroxychloroquine. ".

Keep popping those "Trump pills" as long as you don't mind a "heart incident. ".

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2442199]Mojo,

. We are far more aware about who has the flu. Everyone that wants a test is tested. Now, we have people that have Covid that are not even given a test. It's just an invalid comparison.

That said, it doesn't make the human element of this story any better. You hear about people texting their goodbyes because they can't see family members. It's awful. But that doesn't make bad math any more valid.[/QUOTE]Did you not understand what I said? Did you not read what I was responding to? The morgues are overflowing! And people still try to say "this is no worse than the flu. " Let me repeat that one more time, the goddamn morgues are over-fucking-flowing! J That is the only number that matters! That is the only evidence of a mortality rate you need. That is a verifiable fact, not an estimate or a guess. It is unprecedented since the Spanish Flu pandemic. There is no comparing the results to the seasonal flu. I don't care how many have it! Just about everyone comes into contact with the flu every year. If the flue was killing people like this then the morgues would be overflowing every year.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2442196]Elvis, this is an impressive post. I am not in any way in the medical field. But I have spent a lot of my time recently reading about the virus. My background is loosely in data analytics. Personally, I have strong feelings that nearly all of the numbers, models and estimates are truly worthless. Worse, the numbers are being intentionally skewed to inflate fear. The media is probably an unknowing participant. But the CDC, WHO, and state DHS teams should know better. And I think back now months ago to what Fauci said. It may have been his most true statement and clearly foreshadowing. Paraphrasing: 'If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing. ' It is like your local weatherman who interrupts TV programming for 2 hours about a single cell storm. They will milk their 15 minutes for all its worth. Don't get me wrong, they have a place and do play a critical role. But they run the risk of losing credibility when overreacting, or worse yet, skewing the numbers to promote their "fix.".[/QUOTE]Here's some data to analyze.

This flu season it took approximately 165 days for the flu to kill 20,000 people in the US. It took no more than 40 days for 20,000 to die from COVID-19.

More data:. This season, according to the CDC percentage of deaths from pneumonia and influenza is at 10%, well above the threshold of 7.1% to consider it an epidemic. Most of the increase in deaths is from pneumonia.

Apparently, COVID-19 cases in prisons, jails and nursing homes aren't being tracked. Yet these are all areas where the disease is more likely to spread. Also, for nursing homes, where the mortality rate is expected to be very high.

I've been paying attention. I haven't seen any attempts to promote this as Armageddon. What I've been seeing, for about 10 weeks, people saying this is something we need to take seriously. I've also seen a lot of people saying it's no big deal.

Now, at least one person who said frequently, for several weeks that it was nothing to worry about, that it was all under control, is blaming the WHO for not stressing how serious it was.

Draw your own conclusions.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442354]Did you not understand what I said? Did you not read what I was responding to? The morgues are overflowing! And people still try to say "this is no worse than the flu. " Let me repeat that one more time, the goddamn morgues are over-fucking-flowing! J That is the only number that matters! That is the only evidence of a mortality rate you need. That is a verifiable fact, not an estimate or a guess. It is unprecedented since the Spanish Flu pandemic. There is no comparing the results to the seasonal flu. I don't care how many have it! Just about everyone comes into contact with the flu every year. If the flue was killing people like this then the morgues would be overflowing every year.[/QUOTE]The morgues in New York have been overflowing since the Civil War.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2442275]And the fact that we have no natural immunity by way of antibodies. Only the other defenses we all have. Getting an active case depends on being exposed to it, may depend to some extent on how much of the virus we were exposed to, and how our body handles it.[/QUOTE]I know you didn't write this Zeos, but the whole idea that the body does not have immunity to this is absurd. When you talk about war against a virus, antibodies specific to the virus are like sharpshooters. Of course, your body has generalized immune systems (machine guns, nukes ETC) that fights all kinds of things. In fact, when you look at the blood of the people with the disease, there is a very characteristic pattern of what white blood cells are used to fight off the infection and which ones are high and low.

And like in any war, you are fighting the enemy. You have to worry about how much of the virus there is, how it is being transported, how it is being fed, how it adapts ETC.

In fact, like in a war, there is also friendly fire. In fact, it is the body's own immune system attacking itself that may be the biggest issue with the virus. Plaquenil or hydroxychlorquine is used for lupus because it LOWERS immunity. Lupus is when the body attacks its own soft tissue. So hydroxychloroquine might work by lowering the friendly fire killing people.

People promoting we have no immunity are being paid off by vaccine companies or saying that we need antibody certificates to travel are full of shit and trying to cash in. That is a ridiculous, simplistic concept. Those are the fake "experts", and they have been touting their own horn throughout. Believe them if you want.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2442275]In any case we do know lots about how it spreads. And we know from following chains of infection (in some countries or areas they still know the source of every infection) what it takes to spread it. And, when you get people infected with it out interacting with other people it spreads. If they stay apart, and don't spread it through contaminating surfaces it does not spread. At least so little chance that it doesn't matter.

And doing those things works. There are countries and areas where it is not being spread at all, and new cases are all travelers coming in from other places.[/QUOTE]Do you see the difference between me and the "experts"? I do not know anything. I suspect. The "experts" know, but go back and read my posts early on and what I predicted and tell me where I was wrong. I mentioned plateau before anyone else did. I said be careful saying that this is way worse than a bad flu season. So you can find the virus on plastic? How much does it take to infect someone? How is he spread? How does it hide itself from the immune system? There is so much more than "Hey, you can detect this on plastic. ".

I know you think these "experts" are to be trusted but I verify what they say and a lot of what they say does not match up with the data, and they are talking in their own self-interest.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442354]... That is the only number that matters! .... I don't care how many have it! [/QUOTE]With respect, I guess I'm just more curious. Reacting to the morgues in NYC is an (understanbable but) emotional reaction. The morgues do not tell us any factual data about how deadly this is. It doesn't tell us why. Or how. It's a sad story. But it's void of facts.

You were the one that threw out a mortality rate. I explained why that number was useless.

Personally, I'm not shocked that NYC, LA, and other dense cities are exploding. As others have pointed out, it is highly contagious. So cities that have superior and heavily-used mass transit and other community norms will see higher numbers. But we don't have a clue how many people have it. Therefore, any mortality rate is worthless. And we should be wary of those who claim it to be a valuable metric.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2442300]Another factor is the timing. There are several news reports comparing New York to California. Some thought California might have overreacted when the lock down was announced but so far California is doing better with a larger population.[/QUOTE]I will throw something else out Nounce. Maybe California was hit with corona virus waaaay earlier than anyone else, and it was not picked up.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442354]Did you not understand what I said? Did you not read what I was responding to? The morgues are overflowing! And people still try to say "this is no worse than the flu. " Let me repeat that one more time, the goddamn morgues are over-fucking-flowing! J That is the only number that matters! That is the only evidence of a mortality rate you need. That is a verifiable fact, not an estimate or a guess. It is unprecedented since the Spanish Flu pandemic. There is no comparing the results to the seasonal flu. I don't care how many have it! Just about everyone comes into contact with the flu every year. If the flue was killing people like this then the morgues would be overflowing every year.[/QUOTE]Sigh. How can the morgues be overflowing when there were more people dying at this time last year than this year?

[URL]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-saving-lives[/URL]

The data with regards to number of people dying does not support the notion that morgues are overflowing and given that people are banned from going to hospitals, I would question the motives of anyone reporting it.

You guys really need to be careful and question and verify so much of the stuff that is being put out there. The media has been caught lying several times already.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2442350][URL]https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-treatment-prevention-cure-vaccines/2020/4/11/21217693/coronavirus-treatments-hydroxychloroquine-remdesivir-side-effects-covid-19-studies[/URL]

"On a less optimistic note, France's drug-safety agency has released data indicating that hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malaria drug Trump has pushed as a potential miracle drug for treating Covid-19, appears to have serious side effects on the heart when used for Covid-19 patients, and should be used under medical supervision. The report details 43 cases of "heart incidents" tied to hydroxychloroquine. ".

Keep popping those "Trump pills" as long as you don't mind a "heart incident. ".[/QUOTE]Haha, imagine that, a news article on the Vox site condemning Trump.

[QUOTE=Balboa;2442382]Haha, imagine that, a news article on the Vox site condemning Trump.[/QUOTE]I've seen reports on many different sites, citing several sources on the so-called "Trump pills" (I'm only using that tag because I'm too lazy to check the spelling of the antibiotic).

The scientific consensus is they warrant further study. Initial reports show they work well for some, do nothing at all for some and for a few, they are potentially fatal.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442354] If the flue was killing people like this then the morgues would be overflowing every year[/QUOTE]This virus has a speed that is more deadly. I think it will be much clearer if the comparison is using daily death rate.

[QUOTE=Balboa;2442382]Haha, imagine that, a news article on the Vox site condemning Trump.[/QUOTE]What does that have to do with anything? It's a properly sourced article. You can actually follow the links all the way to article at the French drug agency: [URL]https://www.ansm.sante.fr/S-informer/Actualite/Medicaments-utilises-chez-les-patients-atteints-du-COVID-19-une-surveillance-renforcee-des-effets-indesirables-Point-d-information[/URL].

[QUOTE=Nounce;2442418]This virus has a speed that is more deadly. I think it will be much clearer if the comparison is using daily death rate.[/QUOTE]First, the speed, or said differently, contagiousness, of this virus really has nothing to do with lethality. Early reports show somewhere between 15% and 50% may have contracted the virus. I take those numbers with a grain of salt. But the speed of spread is almost irrelevant to the mortality.

Second, the daily death rate would absolutely be a great metric. But only if we had an accurate denominator. Fact: we are not testing every suspected case. That inflates the rate. In some instances, only those with serious health issues are being tested. Of course that inflates the mortality rate even more! Even the alarmist, Dr. Fauci says that the mortality rate is probably below 1%. And even the worst projections and models agree. We were told without any mitigation, without any social distancing, US deaths could be as high as 2 million. That was an outrageous prediction but let's take it for what it's worth. In a country of 328 million, that's a 0.6% of the population. A far cry from the 4, 5, 10% rates the alarmists will throw at us.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2442377]Sigh. How can the morgues be overflowing when there were more people dying at this time last year than this year?

[URL]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-saving-lives[/URL]

The data with regards to number of people dying does not support the notion that morgues are overflowing and given that people are banned from going to hospitals, I would question the motives of anyone reporting it.

You guys really need to be careful and question and verify so much of the stuff that is being put out there. The media has been caught lying several times already.[/QUOTE]The the people who run the morgues do not give a fuck what numbers a website like zerohedge is publishing- jesus fucking christ. They do not give a fuck because they are not living speculation they are living reality. No more people are dying than died last year? I call bullshit! I have never seen bullshit fly so hard and fast into the face of reality. Do you think they went out and staged interviews with morgues and the people who run funeral homes who filled their establishments with mannequins? And they all staged a big lie? One funeral home director was a grown man crying when he said he had to put his own cousin on ice at an alternative site because of no space. I am standing watching people get soaking wet and your quoting a blog that says it is not raining. You need to know when you are being propagandized. Can you not tell the difference between the propagandized tilted numbers and the hard empirical facts of piles of bodies? Do you even have a clue of how it sounds to a sane person when I tell you that the morgues and funeral homes are turning people away. And you for some unfathomable reason ask "how can the morgues be overflowing?" They are and the state of denial does not change the state of reality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SypvzstNsjc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOhAiIYYZNo

https://www.forbes.com/sites/pascaledavies/2020/03/24/ice-rink-in-spain-becomes-makeshift-morgue-as-coronavirus-cases-surge/#606a9c554d8b
https://www.foxnews.com/world/spain-coronavirus-senior-homes-investigation-ice-rink
https://www.timesofisrael.com/record-627-deaths-in-italy-military-vehicles-said-used-to-transport-bodies/
https://abc7ny.com/funeral-homes-morgues-coronavirus-nyc-deaths/6073482/
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241800591.html

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442565]The the people who run the morgues do not give a fuck what numbers a website like zerohedge is publishing- jesus fucking christ.[/QUOTE]The numbers quoted in the article were from the CDC.

From one of your articles, "Eighty-five refrigerated trucks have been ordered from the military to hold the dead. The trucks are due in New York by the middle of April.

FEMA has requested that the Defense Department make available 100,000 body bags to assist state health agencies with mortuary affairs. The request comes as the White House revealed this week that as many as 240,000 Americans could die from the coronavirus. "

And now we are down to 60,000 estimated dead.

Coronavirus makes about 20% of the cases of common flu. I have already said that this was an extremely contagious variety.

You do understand the government is scaring the shit out of everyone to get them to comply with social distancing right? And that the media is an extension of government and reports what the government wants to be put out there? You are not going to find anyone who says that the death rate for this is on par with seasonal flu be on TV and not being made fun of. Well, maybe someone will quote numbers now that Dr. Fauci has revised the expected deaths downwards.

And if I were in government, I would be doing the same thing as to what is being done. Exaggerate the number, scare everyone, and pat the media on the head for following our directive. Then compliment myself when the numbers were better than projected. Then get myself ready for a medals and proclamations of being a hero in the media. I can see it now.

[URL]https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/03/new-york-considers-loosening-requirements-for-funeral-directors-as-bodies-pile-up-1271316[/URL]

I think you do not get what I said. The virus is very contagious, but it is not more deadly than the flu. That means you are going to have a lot more deaths at once versus being spread out over a several month period.

As far as the morgues filling up, that is a government thing. The government, in this case the state of New York, limited the number of services that funeral homes can have. It also limited the number of hours a crematory could be in operation. Per this article, you have had New York go from less than 30 deaths per week to 100. You can burn a body in two hours or less. That is 10 per day per machine, and they have at least four machines. They can also get portable crematories if necessary. The problem is that there are paperwork issues. Cause of death has to be established via death certificate before a body can be cremated, but the capacity to handle all the bodies so they do not overflow is there.

By the way, there have been people looking at overflowing hospitals in NYC and for these famed refrigerated trucks and cannot find them. This like the "we are running out of ventilators" is just more hysteria.

I actually had health care personnel in my area ***** because their hours are being cut back because all elective procedures have been banned. The hospitals in my area are less full than they have been in years.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442565]The the people who run the morgues do not give a fuck what numbers a website like zerohedge is publishing- jesus fucking christ. They do not give a fuck because they are not living speculation they are living reality. No more people are dying than died last year? I call bullshit! I have never seen bullshit fly so hard and fast into the face of reality. Do you think they went out and staged interviews with morgues and the people who run funeral homes who filled their establishments with mannequins? And they all staged a big lie? One funeral home director was a grown man crying when he said he had to put his own cousin on ice at an alternative site because of no space. I am standing watching people get soaking wet and your quoting a blog that says it is not raining. You need to know when you are being propagandized. Can you not tell the difference between the propagandized tilted numbers and the hard empirical facts of piles of bodies? Do you even have a clue of how it sounds to a sane person when I tell you that the morgues and funeral homes are turning people away. And you for some unfathomable reason ask "how can the morgues be overflowing?" They are and the state of denial does not change the state of reality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SypvzstNsjc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOhAiIYYZNo

https://www.forbes.com/sites/pascaledavies/2020/03/24/ice-rink-in-spain-becomes-makeshift-morgue-as-coronavirus-cases-surge/#606a9c554d8b
https://www.foxnews.com/world/spain-coronavirus-senior-homes-investigation-ice-rink
https://www.timesofisrael.com/record-627-deaths-in-italy-military-vehicles-said-used-to-transport-bodies/
https://abc7ny.com/funeral-homes-morgues-coronavirus-nyc-deaths/6073482/
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241800591.html[/QUOTE]Zerohedge is an investment blog in Bulgaria. It appears to be completely run be a small group of Bulgarians, from Bulgaria. I can only assume they give good investment advice. I don't expect they have a large group of investigative reporters working in the US. It appears they have no investigative reporters whatsoever. The best they can do is report what they pick up from other sources.

And there's the problem. Which sources do they choose? What is their agenda? For all its faults, at least the mainstream media agenda is simple: Sell Viagra. Number one priority is satisfy the advertisers.

But a bearish, libertarian, Bulgarian investment blog? Probably not getting a lot of advertising dollars from the pharmaceutical companies. What's their angle?

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2442514]First, the speed, or said differently, contagiousness, of this virus really has nothing to do with lethality. Early reports show somewhere between 15% and 50% may have contracted the virus. I take those numbers with a grain of salt. But the speed of spread is almost irrelevant to the mortality.

Second, the daily death rate would absolutely be a great metric. But only if we had an accurate denominator. Fact: we are not testing every suspected case. That inflates the rate. In some instances, only those with serious health issues are being tested. Of course that inflates the mortality rate even more! Even the alarmist, Dr. Fauci says that the mortality rate is probably below 1%. And even the worst projections and models agree. We were told without any mitigation, without any social distancing, US deaths could be as high as 2 million. That was an outrageous prediction but let's take it for what it's worth. In a country of 328 million, that's a 0.6% of the population. A far cry from the 4, 5, 10% rates the alarmists will throw at us.[/QUOTE]You make it too complicated. All you need is the number of daily deaths caused by the virus based on a population in a region, for example, per 10 k residents in NY or NYC. You may ask, what about under counting? My reply is that it does not matter if this is only a discussion on how deadly it is.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2442514] We were told without any mitigation, without any social distancing, US deaths could be as high as 2 million. That was an outrageous prediction but let's take it for what it's worth. In a country of 328 million, that's a 0.6% of the population. A far cry from the 4, 5, 10% rates the alarmists will throw at us.[/QUOTE]I knew when all this started that people would later make claims about what "might have happen" but we will never know because with few exceptions we have all been social distancing.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2442576]

You do understand the government is scaring the shit out of everyone to get them to comply with social distancing right? [/QUOTE]No I don't. Because I am in constant contact with personal friends and family that are doctors and researchers who work in private practices and for corporations who all say the same thing that the government is saying.

But I am done responding you. I laid down the indisputable facts and you tried to dispute them with confabulation and distortion. So I am going to let you answer this one question and then everyone who is sane and reasonable will make their own determination as to the veracity of information that you. This is a simple yes or no question. Are the people in these videos and news stories all lying? Yes or No?

[URL]https://time.com/5814918/new-york-funeral-home/[/URL]

[URL]https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/nyc-morgues-cemeteries-overwhelmed-amid-coronavirus-official/[/URL]

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IVCYEI0RyA[/URL]

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/coronavirus-new-york-cases-funeral-homes/index.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/morgues-coronavirus-1.43703606[/URL]

Anyone has an educated guess on when can we return to Medellin? I'm guess is that they might let business people in first before they let the tourists back in. Its time to applying for a business visa.

[QUOTE=SJobs;2442619]Anyone has an educated guess on when can we return to Medellin? I'm guess is that they might let business people in first before they let the tourists back in. Its time to applying for a business visa.[/QUOTE]I have no idea, but do know that Hong Kong and Japan are letting people in, but that is after being tested for COVID 19 and in addition being quarantined for 14 days at least in Hong Kong. In Japan, people arriving have been waiting up to two days at the airport for test results and sleeping in card-boxes provided at the Airport and having to pay for them as well which also includes snacks and beverages. So I believe Colombia will follow suit with testing protocols, but it may not be for months after the Country has been taken out of lock-down and back to whatever the "new normal" is.

[QUOTE=SJobs;2442619]Anyone has an educated guess on when can we return to Medellin? I'm guess is that they might let business people in first before they let the tourists back in. Its time to applying for a business visa.[/QUOTE]What's interesting is AA now has flights scheduled to fly MDE, CLO, and BOG everyday starting May 7th.

As well as to São Paulo, Santiago Chile and BA.

Interesting.

[QUOTE=Balboa;2442662]What's interesting is AA now has flights scheduled to fly MDE, CLO, and BOG everyday starting May 7th.

As well as to So Paulo, Santiago Chile and BA.

Interesting.[/QUOTE]They will just cancel the flight on you if they can't do it when the day comes.

[QUOTE=Balboa;2442662]What's interesting is AA now has flights scheduled to fly MDE, CLO, and BOG everyday starting May 7th.

As well as to So Paulo, Santiago Chile and BA.

Interesting.[/QUOTE]You can book on several airlines on those days. I think they just go by what is already announced by the government. It probably is subjected to changes.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2442681]You can book on several airlines on those days. I think they just go by what is already announced by the government. It probably is subjected to changes.[/QUOTE]Yes, true, however, I have amigos in the business, and they are putting these flights on their work schedules.
Of course the flights could still cancel, however, its a bit more solid info when they are actually adding the flights to flight crew schedules.

Seems rather soon to me as well, however, Im hoping.
Time will tell.

I'll be in Cartagena this summer, I'll be sure to update this thread.

[QUOTE=Balboa;2442688]Yes, true, however, I have amigos in the business, and they are putting these flights on their work schedules.
Of course the flights could still cancel, however, its a bit more solid info when they are actually adding the flights to flight crew schedules.

Seems rather soon to me as well, however, Im hoping.
Time will tell.[/QUOTE]That't good to know. Thanks.

[QUOTE=Balboa;2442662]What's interesting is AA now has flights scheduled to fly MDE, CLO, and BOG everyday starting May 7th.

As well as to So Paulo, Santiago Chile and BA.

Interesting.[/QUOTE]The Colombian government has banned entry of all foreigners into the country until May 31. Maybe AA thinks there are enough Colombia citizens to warrant the flights. Or, possibly, the government has revised the ban issued on March 16.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2442805]The Colombian government has banned entry of all foreigners into the country until May 31. Maybe AA thinks there are enough Colombia citizens to warrant the flights. Or, possibly, the government has revised the ban issued on March 16.[/QUOTE]As far as I know even citizens aren't allowed back. It's everyone.

Those flights get sold so the airline makes some money. Then you get a cancellation and credit.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2442805]The Colombian government has banned entry of all foreigners into the country until May 31. Maybe AA thinks there are enough Colombia citizens to warrant the flights. Or, possibly, the government has revised the ban issued on March 16.[/QUOTE]I heard the May 31 date was for land borders only. And I can't believe they are going to allow anyone in short of COVID testing like in Japan and Hong Kong upon arrival. And I have heard COPA is selling tickets from Panama City to MDE beginning in May. I just don't see this happening, so sounds like the airlines are just trying to generate some cash and issue vouchers for future travel as previously mentioned.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2442817]I heard the May 31 date was for land borders only. And I can't believe they are going to allow anyone in short of COVID testing like in Japan and Hong Kong upon arrival. And I have heard COPA is selling tickets from Panama City to MDE beginning in May. I just don't see this happening, so sounds like the airlines are just trying to generate some cash and issue vouchers for future travel as previously mentioned.[/QUOTE]I'm willing to sleep in an airport quarantine room for 14 days and pay them a handsome amount of money, as long as I can get back into the country.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442618]So I am going to let you answer this one question and then everyone who is sane and reasonable will make their own determination as to the veracity of information that you. This is a simple yes or no question. Are the people in these videos and news stories all lying? Yes or No?[/QUOTE]Of course not, they are presenting one side of the story as are you. This virus is awful, the greatest threat in the history of mankind!! There is no room in the discussion that it may not be as bad as you and they say.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442618]No I don't. Because I am in constant contact with personal friends and family that are doctors and researchers who work in private practices and for corporations who all say the same thing that the government is saying.[/QUOTE]Right, that is why the death number has been revised downwards from 240,000 to 60,000. What is everyone saying today? Yes, I know all about how terrible the virus can be and what it does to the human body. I also know how terrible AIDS can be. I also know that some scumbags hyped up the threat for personal gain, and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself.

[QUOTE=SJobs;2442619]Anyone has an educated guess on when can we return to Medellin? I'm guess is that they might let business people in first before they let the tourists back in. Its time to applying for a business visa.[/QUOTE]1% in April, 50% by May, 90% by June, 99% by July IMO. I bought tickets for late June. I scored a one way flight on Spirit for $58.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2442883]1% in April, 50% by May, 90% by June, 99% by July IMO. I bought tickets for late June. I scored a one way flight on Spirit for $58.[/QUOTE]When they go bankrupt send them another $58.

That's a very low margin business you realize that? You literally just burned $58.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2442882].[/QUOTE]The reason that the numbers are down is because of social distancing! We are doing exactly what the models predicted we would do through social distancing.

But point of fact is that You did not answer my question! This is my blog and until you answer my question I should delete anything you post. It is disrespectful not to answer the question. Your kind of propaganda can put peoples lives at risk. The Goddamn Morgues in New York City are OVer Capacity for Dead People. That is all the proof anyone with more than two brains cells and no political agenda needs to see how deadly this virus is. So please answer my question so there is a clear picture of your state of denial.

This is a simple yes or no question. Are the people in these videos and news stories all lying? Yes or No?

[URL]https://time.com/5814918/new-york-funeral-home/[/URL]

[URL]https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/nyc-mo...irus-official/[/URL]

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IVCYEI0RyA[/URL]

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/co...mes/index.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.newsday.com/news/health/...rus-1.43703606[/URL]

Photos show bodies piled up and stored in vacant rooms at Detroit hospital.

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/health/detroit-hospital-bodies-coronavirus-trnd/index.html[/URL]

Hospitals overflowing with bodies as coronavirus deaths surge in New York City.

[URL]https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/hospitals-overflowing-with-bodies-as-virus-deaths-surge-in-new-york-city/[/URL]

"I thought I would never see that many body bags in my life, and I'm seeing them now," said Arsenio Lopez, Vietnam veteran and the director of the Borinquen Memorial Funeral Home in Bushwick, Brooklyn.

[URL]https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-thought-i-would-never-see-that-many-body-bags-in-my-life-nyc-funeral-directors-on-dealing-with-coronavirus-deaths-2020-04-07[/URL]

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442887]The reason that the numbers are down is because of social distancing! We are doing exactly what the models predicted we would do through social distancing.[/QUOTE]Mojo,

I know the question wasn't for me. And I know this is "your blog". So with respect, two weeks ago, did you hear any models predicting 60,000? I didn't. In fact, I don't know that any model has been close, and that's my only point. If these data scientists and modelers are the best we have, and they miss their estimates by 300% and 400%, well that's just not good enough. You are absolutely right, shuttering everyone in their homes 24/7 led to lower numbers. But the models should have accounted for that, no? Instead, you have outrageously high numbers thrown out for one reason: to scare people. That does no one any good. Especially considering we're still in the same exact situation as when we started this shutdown. No vaccine. No therapeutic. The only thing that has changed is the credibility of the "experts" that were 400% off.

I'd add that it was Fauci himself that endorsed that 200 K figure just two weeks ago.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442892]"I thought I would never see that many body bags in my life, and I'm seeing them now," said Arsenio Lopez, Vietnam veteran and the director of the Borinquen Memorial Funeral Home in Bushwick, Brooklyn.

[URL]https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-thought-i-would-never-see-that-many-body-bags-in-my-life-nyc-funeral-directors-on-dealing-with-coronavirus-deaths-2020-04-07[/URL][/QUOTE]If this is all a bunch of deception, as has been claimed, why are the hospitals literally throwing money away?

I have a sister who worked for years as a travel nurse. When hospitals have critical staffing shortages, they contact a travel nurse company and pay for a temp. It's expensive. Not only do the nurses get paid at a much higher rate than the regular nurses, they also get per diem. For a nurse willing to travel and live frugally, it's a way to see the world and make a lot of money.

NYC hospitals have brought in a lot of travel nurses. With the per diem in NYC, they're paying easily double for each nurse. Yet, supposedly they're completely unnecessary. I know the nurses are there. I know they're working lots of hours. I get daily reports.

I can only assume the hospitals are paying their staff nurses to stay away, so they can pay the travel nurses double in order to pretend there's a problem. I just can't figure out why.

Certainly it can't be because they have a much heavier than normal case load. I guess only a couple of guys in Bulgaria know the answer.

On a lighter note, I had a virtual visit with my rheumatologist today. Other than a few questions she just had me show my hands and demonstrate my range of motion. She's doing almost all her work via video chat from home.

I bet she's really happy she's not a proctologist.

It is "if" they go bankrupt, not "when". The possibility is there and I think it is much more likely to happen to a marginal carrier like Spirit than a mainstream carrier like Delta, United, or American. You probably know Spirit has been running charter humanitarian flights the past several days. The next one is scheduled for April 16. So yes, if Spirit goes bankrupt the $58 is highly likely to be lost along with any accumulated frequent flyer miles. I think it is also likely the cost of flights will increase because of higher demand and lower supply after the virus is under control.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2442886]When they go bankrupt send them another $58.

That's a very low margin business you realize that? You literally just burned $58.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2442887]The reason that the numbers are down is because of social distancing! We are doing exactly what the models predicted we would do through social distancing.

But point of fact is that You did not answer my question! This is my blog and until you answer my question I should delete anything you post. It is disrespectful not to answer the question. Your kind of propaganda can put peoples lives at risk.[/QUOTE]I answered your question. I said of course, they are not lying. They are presenting one point of view that supports the official narrative.

Mojo, you remind me of a Democrat I know. Is the reason you are freaking out about all this is that you can blame Trump and Republicans for freaking all these deaths? Because this is the same thing that Democrats do with global warming. Republicans are so stupid they are not listening to the scientists.

Yes, Corona virus attacks the lungs, and it is horrible and grisly and nasty and so is lung cancer. The only difference is you can blame the individual with lung cancer and smoking, but this is new and terrible and somebody needs to be to blamed. Why not Trump? It was the Trump virus after all. That is what some members of the media called it.

How can what I post be propaganda when I have said over and over it is just one guy's opinion? My opinion is that nobody knows nothing. You say that social distancing is working. Do you have any objective proof outside of consensus?

Without objective and verifiable facts, there is no difference between politics and science. To prove cause and effect is very, very hard. Again, I am posting here with the assumption that people have the brains to know what is being told to them and why versus what is my opinion of the truth, and the reason I felt comfortable doing so here versus just about everywhere else is that people here have not bought the government's official view on prostitution. I thought that people here question the official government narrative.

A guy who is fucking hookers is going to start shaming others? Really?

By promoting men seeing hookers, you are promoting disease and AIDS leading to their deaths of themselves, their wives, and are reeking havoc on the health of the entire world. How dare you!

Lighten up Francis. It is a hooker board.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2442882]Of course not, they are presenting one side of the story as are you. This virus is awful, the greatest threat in the history of mankind!! There is no room in the discussion that it may not be as bad as you and they say.

Right, that is why the death number has been revised downwards from 240,000 to 60,000. What is everyone saying today? Yes, I know all about how terrible the virus can be and what it does to the human body. I also know how terrible AIDS can be. I also know that some scumbags hyped up the threat for personal gain, and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself.[/QUOTE]One thing that people are ignoring is that the infrastructure that is currently being stressed is almost always near capacity by design. A region has exactly the numbers of funeral homes that average death rates can support. There are no Maytag Man funeral directors sitting around waiting to work, because they would be out of business very quickly.

Its true same with hospitals. We don't have thousands of empty hospital beds and idle staff waiting for an emergency, because our systems cannot afford to maintain extra capacity.

What does this mean? It means a few percent increase in deaths, especially in a large city is going to look very grim.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2442909]
I can only assume the hospitals are paying their staff nurses to stay away, so they can pay the travel nurses double in order to pretend there's a problem. I just can't figure out why.
[/QUOTE]Good post. IMO this whole shit show about the coronavirus has been blown completely out of proportion. The "experts" keep revising the numbers down, before you know it, it's going to be less lethal than the common flu, wait, it already is.

What concerns me more, is why in the hell have they shut down the Global economy over this shit? Is there something their not telling us? A Giant Meteor is coming? Or another great depression? Did the Federal Reserve give us a clue? Yes they did. Skip to 2:45 in this video.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E[/URL]

If the Federal Reserve projections are true, then you can start panicking.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2442906]Mojo,

I know the question wasn't for me. And I know this is "your blog". So with respect, two weeks ago, did you hear any models predicting 60,000? I didn't. In fact, I don't know that any model has been close, and that's my only point. If these data scientists and modelers are the best we have, and they miss their estimates by 300% and 400%, well that's just not good enough. You are absolutely right, shuttering everyone in their homes 24/7 led to lower numbers. But the models should have accounted for that, no? Instead, you have outrageously high numbers thrown out for one reason: to scare people. That does no one any good. Especially considering we're still in the same exact situation as when we started this shutdown. No vaccine. No therapeutic. The only thing that has changed is the credibility of the "experts" that were 400% off.

I'd add that it was Fauci himself that endorsed that 200 K figure just two weeks ago.[/QUOTE]Sigh. I think you missed the many explanations of what modelling is. It is taking what is currently known and projecting into the future. I do models as well. At one point it looked like a million deaths in the US was a reasonable outcome. Based on the numbers at that time. Of course that assumes that the growth in cases and fatalities continued along the mathematical (exponential) growth curve. Then you try to account for changes in behavior. And with this disease that is all important. Because it could literally be brought to 0 in around 3 to 4 weeks. If no one literally was in contact with anyone else. And of course that cannot happen. So. All of those doing predictive models always said that it depended on behavior. Physical distancing and isolating, thorough hand washing, not touching your face, all the ways to stop the virus from being spread. And everyone knew from other countries experience that this could change the outcome from whatever model you were using at the time. I don't think the credibility of the experts is in question at all. I heard their explanations, I heard many many explanations from different models. And they all said the same, that the outcome would really depend on what people did.

So, enough people took it seriously that the outcome is better than predicted a few weeks ago. I think that's a good outcome. Too bad it didn't happen sooner.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2443103]Good post. IMO this whole shit show about the coronavirus has been blown completely out of proportion. The "experts" keep revising the numbers down, before you know it, it's going to be less lethal than the common flu, wait, it already is..[/QUOTE]The reality is, in a couple of years, when this has all been figured out, this may be the conclusion. And what muddles things now is the proportion on the people dying, some of which might of been close to dying anyways, instead of within a few weeks of being infected, versus within a few years. As an example, they will have to study how many people who would of normally died from cardiovascular disease during the pandemic.

It's one big mess for sure, causing a lot of pain and misery around the globe.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2443133]Sigh. I think you missed the many explanations of what modelling is. It is taking what is currently known and projecting into the future. I do models as well. At one point it looked like a million deaths in the US was a reasonable outcome. Based on the numbers at that time. Of course that assumes that the growth in cases and fatalities continued along the mathematical (exponential) growth curve. Then you try to account for changes in behavior. And with this disease that is all important. Because it could literally be brought to 0 in around 3 to 4 weeks. If no one literally was in contact with anyone else. And of course that cannot happen. So. All of those doing predictive models always said that it depended on behavior. Physical distancing and isolating, thorough hand washing, not touching your face, all the ways to stop the virus from being spread. And everyone knew from other countries experience that this could change the outcome from whatever model you were using at the time. I don't think the credibility of the experts is in question at all. I heard their explanations, I heard many many explanations from different models. And they all said the same, that the outcome would really depend on what people did.

So, enough people took it seriously that the outcome is better than predicted a few weeks ago. I think that's a good outcome. Too bad it didn't happen sooner.[/QUOTE]In addition to model being constantly adjusted because of new information, most models will present a range of numbers. The range will shrink over time and the accuracy will increase because the scientists are also in a learning stage as this event does not happen often.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2443136]The reality is, in a couple of years, when this has all been figured out, this may be the conclusion. And what muddles things now is the proportion on the people dying, some of which might of been close to dying anyways, instead of within a few weeks of being infected, versus within a few years. As an example, they will have to study how many people who would of normally died from cardiovascular disease during the pandemic.

It's one big mess for sure, causing a lot of pain and misery around the globe.[/QUOTE]It will never be acknowledged to have been overblown because the filthy smearmerchants of mass media will never admit to stoking panic in the public for ratings.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2443133]Sigh. I think you missed the many explanations of what modelling is. It is taking what is currently known and projecting into the future. I do models as well. At one point it looked like a million deaths in the US was a reasonable outcome. Based on the numbers at that time. Of course that assumes that the growth in cases and fatalities continued along the mathematical (exponential) growth curve. Then you try to account for changes in behavior. And with this disease that is all important. Because it could literally be brought to 0 in around 3 to 4 weeks. If no one literally was in contact with anyone else. And of course that cannot happen. So. All of those doing predictive models always said that it depended on behavior. Physical distancing and isolating, thorough hand washing, not touching your face, all the ways to stop the virus from being spread. And everyone knew from other countries experience that this could change the outcome from whatever model you were using at the time. I don't think the credibility of the experts is in question at all. I heard their explanations, I heard many many explanations from different models. And they all said the same, that the outcome would really depend on what people did.

So, enough people took it seriously that the outcome is better than predicted a few weeks ago. I think that's a good outcome. Too bad it didn't happen sooner.[/QUOTE]I am very familiar with modeling. I work in a "big data" job. So when I see how far off models were, and worse yet, when our so called experts react with such drastic measures to those erroneous projections, (or at a minimum, promoting only worst case scenarios) yes, I take issue with the messaging.

When you have the preminent infectious disease expert in the world going on TV saying 200 K Americans will die, that is meant for one reason. And to his credit, he told us that reason weeks ago. He wants to overreact. He thinks it is a good thing.

People like that absolutely need to be at the table. His knowledge is unquestioned in his field. But shutting down the entire global economy should not be his call. There have to be many people at that table. But at the federal level, state level, local level, our decision making has been driven almost exclusively by the medical professionals without regard for unintended consequences. In two weeks time, 16 million people have lost their income. And their immediate prospects are incredibly bleak. And you can be sure millions will be added with each subsequent week. This isn't about wall street for them. Soon, it will be about meeting housing necessities, finding a way to provide food for their families. 16 million. And growing quickly.

This does not mean I don't appreciate the devastation this virus has caused. This does not mean I doubt NY hospitals and morgues are overwhelmed. This does not mean those that have lost loved ones don't feel devastation. But our cure, that's been adopted virtually globally, will come with a nearly unimaginable pricetag that we cannot even comprehend right now.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443059]Without objective and verifiable facts, there is no difference between politics and science. [/QUOTE]Although it's still early this will almost certainly be the most idiotic statement I will read today. It's even multi-tiered idiocy, which raises the difficulty rating. I suppose congratulations are in order.

Let's start with facts. Facts exist. They are unable to be objective or subjective. There are no alternative facts. Facts have no need to be verifiable because they've already passed every conceivable form of verification before being accepted as facts.

Now on to the "no difference between politics and science" garbage.

Politics is nothing more than a form of social appeasement. We give and take and finagle in order to keep enough people satisfied to achieve objectives. With a war, politics works to maintain the war's popularity while downplaying the costs. The human losses get promoted to heroes and patriots. All to keep the people back home waving the flags.

Science is much simpler. It's a basic toolkit used to find answers. Facts aren't a necessary component. Science doesn't find final answers. It finds better answers. Once an answer is found science is working to learn more about the answer.

Science has no agenda. If there is an agenda, it's not science, it's politics.

Science learned that there was an unexplained increase in pneumonia in Wuhan. So science began looking for answers, and found the coronavirus driving the increase in pneumonia cases. Then science went back to work to find out how it was transmitted, how long it could survive certain conditions and how to combat it. When science gives projections, they are based solely upon what is currently known. It's not based upon popularity, economics or what may be learned tomorrow. Science continues to work looking for better answers.

Politics, that's a different story.

Politics shutdown flights from China. Looks good. We're taking action! Funny thing about viruses, they actually prefer multi-stop flights instead of direct flights. Gives them a chance to meet more, interesting and previously uninfected people. Shutting down flights from China looked like strong action, while it accomplished nothing. There were still flights from China to Europe. Still flights from Europe to the US and the longer transit time allowed more people to be contagious upon arrival, rather than having a 3-5 day cushion.

Politics claims everything is under control, when nothing was being done. Politics prevented any proactive approach, because that makes people nervous. Politics pushes an unproven miracle cure with potentially fatal side effects, because the sheep need a placebo. Politics promises a quick vaccine when science tells us a vaccine could take years or even decades.

Politics tells us to ask questions such as "How many people die from the flu?" Or "Are we sure all these deaths were caused by coronavirus?" Or "What if it's all fake news?

Politics is weighing the costs of ignoring the virus against the economic losses of controlling the spread. Science tells us economic losses are temporary, death isn't.

If I am looking for investment advice, I might hit you up. If I'm looking for having va few SBs, I may have questions for you.

But when it comes to science, I'm better off asking my auto mechanic. At least he knows he has no idea what he's talking about.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0SB8DyhvGg[/URL]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443059]I answered your question. I said of course, they are not lying. They are presenting one point of view that supports the official narrative.

Mojo, you remind me of a Democrat I know. Is the reason you are freaking out about all this is that you can blame Trump and Republicans for freaking all these deaths? Because this is the same thing that Democrats do with global warming. Republicans are so stupid they are not listening to the scientists.

Yes, Corona virus attacks the lungs, and it is horrible and grisly and nasty and so is lung cancer. The only difference is you can blame the individual with lung cancer and smoking, but this is new and terrible and somebody needs to be to blamed. Why not Trump? It was the Trump virus after all. That is what some members of the media called it.

How can what I post be propaganda when I have said over and over it is just one guy's opinion? My opinion is that nobody knows nothing. You say that social distancing is working. Do you have any objective proof outside of consensus?

Without objective and verifiable facts, there is no difference between politics and science. To prove cause and effect is very, very hard. Again, I am posting here with the assumption that people have the brains to know what is being told to them and why versus what is my opinion of the truth, and the reason I felt comfortable doing so here versus just about everywhere else is that people here have not bought the government's official view on prostitution. I thought that people here question the official government narrative.

A guy who is fucking hookers is going to start shaming others? Really?

By promoting men seeing hookers, you are promoting disease and AIDS leading to their deaths of themselves, their wives, and are reeking havoc on the health of the entire world. How dare you!

Lighten up Francis. It is a hooker board.[/QUOTE]Nice how you try to change the subject to prostitution and tell all us board members that we are going to give our wives AIDS. You seem to be good at digging up research so have you not dug up the research that tells you what a slim chance there is that a guy will catch AIDS from a woman. But that is not the subject being discussed here.

The subject being discussed here is your assertion that COVID-19 is not more deadly than the Flu! Then when I point out the empirically undeniable evidence that morgues and funeral homes are over capacity which can only be cause by an unprecedented death rate. You say that this is "their side of the story" and they are contributing to a "narrative". All those people died to create a "narrative". Amazing sacrifice on their part.

You said that COVID-19 was no more deadly than the flu. This surge of dead and dying people in the hospitals and morgues of NYC and Detroit, it is not some 'narrative' it is reality. And you are the one making a tragedy political. For the record I am not an ideologue. Ideologues are sheep. Say baa. I know you can not understand this. Ideologues live in a black and white world. I voted for Ronald Reagan, George H Bush, John McCain which is not something a dyed in the wool democrat is going to do. You are making this political with your distortions.

I work in a university research hospital, I am surrounded in my work by medical doctors and PhDs involved in research. I have been sitting in on meetings about this virus since the beginning of February, by March we were having three meetings a day. Some of the content of these meetings was about how to create more and better isolation areas for the patients because of the extreme numbers that we knew were coming. A lot of my family. Siblings and cousins are medical researchers. Some at other universities, some in the pharmaceutical industry. All of them have sat through meetings the same as I have. I have been living in a cloud of information completely divorced from the "media". That is how I know that COVID -19 is, at a minimum 10 times more deadly than the flu. Not to mention I have had co workers succumb to this disease. So yes I get a little "touchy" when people make lite of it. These people that I knew personally had no underlying health conditions.

This is a sad thing to make political. But if you have to than argue about what a fine job of leadership the president is doing. I am not going to argue one way or the other about that. That really is subjective and can be argued but do not argue that the virus is not a threat. That is not an argument from a political view it is a distortion of the facts. In fact I posted an article before that I agreed with that said Governor Dewine of Ohio who is a Republican has probably done a better job than anyone in this thing.

No one in my workplace actually "trusted" numbers coming out of the filter of the Chinese government. But when the thing started to balloon in Italy that's when the numbers started really being crunched. So that's when my organization went on "war" footing and the meetings and a reorganization of whole hospital units started taking place.

The numbers of dying are slowing because of social distancing period. This was predicted. When they say "flatten the curve" , that is what they mean. We as a country went into a shelter in place mode in an unprecedented move to slow this virus- and then the numbers started falling. Then people are going to say - "See it is not that bad" without ever knowing what would have happen had we not all sheltered in place. What we do know is that the social distancing strategy is working. So at this point anyone that is decrying the "experts" is disagreeing with what is evidently working.

Now going back to the political dimensions. That this was not handled well overall from the beginning is not any one person's fault. For example as soon as it was realized that asymptomatic persons who carried the virus could spread it to others, our hospital mandated everpne where some form of mask, the N95 masks were only to be for working with those in isolation because they had tested positive. But in order to decrease the spread through the moisture of breathing but anyone carrying but yet untested. They mandated the wearing of some type of mask. Usually surgical. My point is that this information was not given to the general public for weeks after it was already being practiced in our institution. This was not one person's fault. It was a gross oversight by the "experts" who continued to focus on symptomatic persons.

When it comes to numbers and statistics politicians like to say that there are degrees of how bad a lie is, they are in order of how bad of a lie these: there are "lies" - there are "damn lies" - and there are "statistics". My statistic professor liked to tell this joke: Ask your elementary teacher How much is 2 +2 and they will tell you "2 + 2 is 4. " Ask your high school mathematics teacher how much is 2 +2 and they will answer "absolute 2 plus absolute 2 is absolute 4. " Ask a statistics teacher how much is 2 plus 2 and they will answer "how much do you want it to be?

I get a little touchy yes, but I am not trying to insult anyone when I point out that the deaths have been so great that Italy, Spain, New York, Detroit that they have run out of morgue space that these are not statistics this is a straight up "body count".

You say "and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself. " So explain to me how to explain to the doctors and the nurses that have been dealing with this, who have lost friends, who some are risking their lives on a daily basis, explain to the people who are piling bodies on ice rinks and into refrigerator cars, explain to the people whose parents are on ice with no way to have a funeral.

Explain exactly what it means when you say "and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" because from the perspective of everyone I talk to on a daily basis who are pretty knowledgeable about these kinds of things. What you are saying when you say " we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" is that we are going to have to let thousands of people die so that the economy starts growing again? Thousands of preventable deaths if fact. At what point in history has any people decided that thousands of people who are not soldiers were going to die to improve the quality of my life?

You may say that I am exaggerating. Maybe even being over dramatic, But then there are all those body bags again -.

[URL]https://time.com/5814918/new-york-funeral-home/[/URL]

[URL]https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/nyc-mo...irus-official/[/URL]

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IVCYEI0RyA[/URL]

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/co...mes/index.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.newsday.com/news/health/...rus-1.43703606[/URL]

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SypvzstNsjc[/URL]

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOhAiIYYZNo[/URL]

[URL]https://www.forbes.com/sites/pascaledavies/2020/03/24/ice-rink-in-spain-becomes-makeshift-morgue-as-coronavirus-cases-surge/[/URL]#606 a9 c554 d8 b.

[URL]https://www.foxnews.com/world/spain-coronavirus-senior-homes-investigation-ice-rink[/URL]

[URL]https://www.timesofisrael.com/record-627-deaths-in-italy-military-vehicles-said-used-to-transport-bodies/[/URL]

[URL]https://abc7ny.com/funeral-homes-morgues-coronavirus-nyc-deaths/6073482/[/URL]

[URL]https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241800591.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2443166]Although it's still early this will almost certainly be the most idiotic statement I will read today. It's even multi-tiered idiocy, which raises the difficulty rating. I suppose congratulations are in order.[/QUOTE]LOL. This from the guy predicting an 18,000 Dow and 1. 6 Canadian to 1 US dollar. Go back and read what I wrote. I said death wise we would be at the same level as we would with a bad flu.

Just because a scientist saying something does not mean it is scientifically correct. A person should verify their data. Scientists have to be politicians to get funding. People need to understand when there is science behind something (I. E. Facts and data) and when scientists are just winging it. 98% of scientists agree man made global warming is real. So what? Do they have data and facts to support that belief? If they do not, it is politics because scientists are just voting. When I looked up the data, man made global warming was pure bullshit.

When you make projections like 240,000 or a million are going to die in the USA, there is no and was no scientific basis for that. It was politics plain and simple. The data upon which those projections were made was horribly flawed, but as I have said a million times by now, I would have constructed the same models with the same number of deaths based on (and this is the key phrase) POLITICAL considerations. Just because someone is a scientist does not mean they are also not a politician, but it seems like you do not know that and that is why you were so wrong with your projections and mine were so on target.

And yes, I bought call options last week and they have done very well. Thanks for asking.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443206] I said death wise we would be at the same level as we would with a bad flu.

.[/QUOTE]HMM?

[URL]https://time.com/5814918/new-york-funeral-home/[/URL]

[URL]https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/nyc-mo...irus-official/[/URL]

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IVCYEI0RyA[/URL]

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/co...mes/index.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.newsday.com/news/health/...rus-1.43703606[/URL]

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SypvzstNsjc[/URL]

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOhAiIYYZNo[/URL]

[URL]https://www.forbes.com/sites/pascale...s-cases-surge/[/URL]#606 a9 c554 d8 be.

[URL]https://www.foxnews.com/world/spain-...ation-ice-rink[/URL]

[URL]https://www.timesofisrael.com/record...nsport-bodies/[/URL]

[URL]https://abc7ny.com/funeral-homes-mor...eaths/6073482/[/URL]

[URL]https://www.miamiherald.com/news/cor...241800591.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443206]People need to understand when there is science behind something (I. E. Facts and data) and when scientists are just winging it. [/QUOTE]And this is the guy using the obsure Bulgarian investor blog to prove that death rates in the US are down? LOL Keep on pontificating pal. It's certainly a source of amusement.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2443237]And this is the guy using the obsure Bulgarian investor blog to prove that death rates in the US are down? LOL Keep on pontificating pal. It's certainly a source of amusement.[/QUOTE]I wouldn't downgrade Zero Hedge too much and it's definitely not obscure. I work in Trading / Derivatives. Virtually everyone in the industry, which includes some extremely bright people of all political stripes, reads Zero Hedge religiously. While IMO it's overly conspiratorial, it's a very good source of information.

[QUOTE=Combo;2443245]I wouldn't downgrade Zero Hedge too much and it's definitely not obscure. I work in Trading / Derivatives. Virtually everyone in the industry, which includes some extremely bright people of all political stripes, reads Zero Hedge religiously. While IMO it's overly conspiratorial, it's a very good source of information.[/QUOTE]Zerohedge is good for financial information, but I am not going to read the New England Journal of Medicine for investment advice. Ivandjiiski training is finance not epidemiology. That being said, he is no Ray Dalio.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443206]I said death wise we would be at the same level as we would with a bad flu.[/QUOTE]What year was there a bad flu?

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443201]Nice how you try to change the subject to prostitution and tell all us board members that we are going to give our wives AIDS. You seem to be good at digging up research so have you not dug up the research that tells you what a slim chance there is that a guy will catch AIDS from a woman. But that is not the subject being discussed here.[/QUOTE]The issue there was you are too serious and engaged in a personal attack saying I was killing people. Only reason to talk about this on a hooker board is to know when we are going to be able to get back to Colombia and fuck the women there.

I have said what my projection was. For all your expertise and belly aching, I have yet to read any predictions from you. I put mine out there.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443201]The subject being discussed here is your assertion that COVID-19 is not more deadly than the Flu![/QUOTE]No, I said IMO the deaths due to COVID-19 were not going to be worse than a really bad flu season which in 2017 was 80,000. Now read this part really carefully okay? In fact, I want you repeat it back to me. All the death projections based on our having 240,000 or 1-2 million dead were based on people not changing behaviors, the virus continuing to infect at the same rate, and there being no effective treatments for the virus. I said these Maltusian doom and gloom projections IMO were always wrong, and I think I can say with confidence now looking at the data that they were wrong.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443201]Then when I point out the empirically undeniable evidence that morgues and funeral homes are over capacity which can only be cause by an unprecedented death rate.You say that this is "their side of the story" and they are contributing to a "narrative". All those people died to create a "narrative". [/QUOTE]I know your side of the story. You pick the places where the virus hits the hardest, claim the funerals are overflowing because of so many dead bodies. Yes, the death rate has tripled in NYC, but if you look at the rest of the country and the USA as a whole, the death rate is down. I provided a link which had a story on Zerohedge quoting CDC statistics. No one bothered to debunk the statistics. Here is the actual paper with data: [URL]https://www.scribd.com/document/453827594/COVID-19-UnintendedConsequences[/URL].

The other side of the story is that the death rate in 2020 is lower than it has been in the last five years. DON'T BE A LAZY ARROGANT ASS LIKE YOU WERE BEFORE MOJO!! Be a scientist and refute the CDC data in the article!

You are on an anonymous blog going on about credentials and indisputable evidence. I cannot verify your credentials, a flaw in your argument. Your indisputable death rate IS being disputed. You put yourself up as an expert. That is a flaw in logic. You attack the source, another flaw in logic. You attack me, another flaw in logic. They could put your damn picture up as an example in the dictionary of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Stop it!

We will make it real simple. I said that the odds are that we are going to see the flight restrictions stopped in May at 50% and in June at 90%. Put your money where your mouth is and make a prediction. Given how bad you think things are, is it fair to say that you do not think flights resume in 2020?

If you are too gutless to make a prediction, which is how practically all "scientists" react when there is a not a consensus, I will say that you bet flights do not resume in 2020.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2443237]And this is the guy using the obsure Bulgarian investor blog to prove that death rates in the US are down? LOL Keep on pontificating pal. It's certainly a source of amusement.[/QUOTE][URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect[/URL]

[QUOTE=Nounce;2443274]What year was there a bad flu?[/QUOTE]Spanish Flu 1918, just 5 years after the FERAL RESERVE took over the United States in 1913.

Initially, it was called the "Kansas Flu" then later, it was changed to the "Spanish Flu". Anyone who has been to Latin America will understand.

During the War economy of WWI, when everybody was working, including kids, the air quality was shit. The skies and rivers were black with coal soot and acid rain.

Everybody had Black Lung. War is Hell.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2443162]

People like that absolutely need to be at the table. His knowledge is unquestioned in his field. But shutting down the entire global economy should not be his call. There have to be many people at that table. But at the federal level, state level, local level, our decision making has been driven almost exclusively by the medical professionals without regard for unintended consequences. In two weeks time, 16 million people have lost their income. And their immediate prospects are incredibly bleak. And you can be sure millions will be added with each subsequent week. This isn't about wall street for them. Soon, it will be about meeting housing necessities, finding a way to provide food for their families. 16 million. And growing quickly.
[/QUOTE]If the death count was in the millions the economy would suffer anyway. You think people will go out to eat, and watch a movie when their neighbors are dropping dead? The reason shelter-in-place is the right call is because not doing it would be worse.

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2442915]It is "if" they go bankrupt, not "when". The possibility is there and I think it is much more likely to happen to a marginal carrier like Spirit than a mainstream carrier like Delta, United, or American. You probably know Spirit has been running charter humanitarian flights the past several days. The next one is scheduled for April 16. So yes, if Spirit goes bankrupt the $58 is highly likely to be lost along with any accumulated frequent flyer miles.[/QUOTE]Knowlege, that is a good post.

This just came up today. No, bankruptcy is not possible when the government is handing out cheap loans: [URL]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-airlines-treasury-department-reach-deal-billions-bailout-aid[/URL].

But this is on ZH so it may not be true. LOL.

For shits and giggles though, I did look at Spirit and was stunned at how solid their balance sheet and profits were. With low fuel prices and cheap loans, the airlines will be fine. It is when the cheap loans are done that there will be issues.

I really have not delved into the airline financials since I bought bonds in 2008 and cleaned up on them, but I did see that Airbus was practically giving planes away with its financing. I would have to check though but my suspicion is that airlines flying Airbus only or mostly planes got favorable lending plans, and I think Spirit and Jetblue are all or nearly all Airbuses.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443252]Zerohedge is good for financial information, but I am not going to read the New England Journal of Medicine for investment advice. Ivandjiiski training is finance not epidemiology. That being said, he is no Ray Dalio.[/QUOTE][URL]https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-pure-alpha-bridgewater-fund-flat-gains-returns-2019-2020-1-1028800764[/URL]

Ray Dalio's fund saw 0. 5% returns in 2019 as the S&P 500 surged 29%.

You are really hurting my feelings, dude!

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443252]Zerohedge is good for financial information, but I am not going to read the New England Journal of Medicine for investment advice. Ivandjiiski training is finance not epidemiology. That being said, he is no Ray Dalio.[/QUOTE]I was responding to the poster who called it an obscure blog.

At JjBee62 , at Dcrist0527 and at MojoBandit.

Great discussion, balanced, personal yet neutral. Keep it up, fellas.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443201]... The numbers of dying are slowing because of social distancing period. This was predicted. When they say "flatten the curve" , that is what they mean. We as a country went into a shelter in place mode in an unprecedented move to slow this virus- and then the numbers started falling. Then people are going to say - "See it is not that bad" without ever knowing what would have happen had we not all sheltered in place. What we do know is that the social distancing strategy is working. So at this point anyone that is decrying the "experts" is disagreeing with what is evidently working. ...[/QUOTE]New York went into shelter in place one day after California. Can you explain the reason for the wide difference in the number of cases and deaths in those two states?

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2443291]New York went into shelter in place one day after California. Can you explain the reason for the wide difference in the number of cases and deaths in those two states?[/QUOTE]Yes, people in New York social distance, however they still crowd into the subways!

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2442886]When they go bankrupt send them another $58.

That's a very low margin business you realize that? You literally just burned $58.[/QUOTE]What I realize, and I am living on planet earth, is that businesses with NEGATIVE margins go broke not ones with low margins.

[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect[/URL]

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2443291]New York went into shelter in place one day after California. Can you explain the reason for the wide difference in the number of cases and deaths in those two states?[/QUOTE]Not trying to explain the difference in numbers. I already mentioned this before. High tech companies started work from home a few weeks before because 1 employee was infected. Then cities followed with shelter in place. State is last.

Based on what I read about NY, NYC mayor wanted shelter in place, the governor said no. When they eventually did, it is not called shelter in place, although it seems similar.

The government may feel more comfortable relaxing the travel restrictions. One of the big issues in Colombia and Peru are the lack of ventilators. I think Peru has less than 100 ventilators.

[URL]https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52251286[/URL]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443206]LOL. This from the guy predicting an 18,000 Dow and 1. 6 Canadian to 1 US dollar. Go back and read what I wrote. I said death wise we would be at the same level as we would with a bad flu.

Just because a scientist saying something does not mean it is scientifically correct. A person should verify their data. Scientists have to be politicians to get funding. People need to understand when there is science behind something (I. E. Facts and data) and when scientists are just winging it. 98% of scientists agree man made global warming is real. So what? Do they have data and facts to support that belief? If they do not, it is politics because scientists are just voting. When I looked up the data, man made global warming was pure bullshit.

When you make projections like 240,000 or a million are going to die in the USA, there is no and was no scientific basis for that. It was politics plain and simple.[/QUOTE]I'm pretty sure I said 17,000 on the Dow. I missed all the financial numbers. But you left out my COVID-19 numbers. Why is that?

As of April 1: Cases 930 k Deaths 39 k worldwide.

My guess: 1 million+ and 20 k+.

I knew I was lowballing the death count.

You said we would be at the same level as a bad flu. Now's your chance. Just say "I completely fucked that up. " Come on, you can do it. Because you completely fucked that up.

The flu season lasts 180 days. A bad flu season results in 40,000 deaths, an average of 222 per day. COVID-19, in the first 45 days, 25,000 deaths, an average of 555 per day. Are you assuming that over the next 135 days only 15,000 more will die? I'll take that bet.

You've never worked with scientists, have you? If you had you wouldn't have tried to back up the first idiotic statement with another contender.

The scientists doing the research are seldom the people securing the funding. If you had ever worked with scientists you would know why that is. Go hang out with Lockheed Martin at Sandia National Labs for awhile. Find out who is sent to DC to wine and dine and who is spending all their time at the Tonopah Test Range, with a truck load of instruments. Or just ask if anyone can tell you about the infamous "salsa incident" back when they still had scientists try to secure research money.

You've looked at the data on climate change have you? Show me your heat balance. Remember? I told you you would need to work up an environmental heat balance if you wanted to discuss climate change. You do know how to work up a heat balance? I mean if you're unable to do that, we're right back to you not having a fucking clue what you're talking about.

You've already demonstrated a complete lack of knowledge of science. Not just once, twice or even 3 times, but a full 4 times in just 2 posts and now you want to talk about scientific basis? Here's the incredibly fucking stupid part: I fully explained that in the post you responded to. I'll do it again and I'll type slowly so you can follow along.

Science makes predictions based upon what is currently known. It doesn't make predictions based upon what will be known in the future. It doesn't make predictions based upon what may be done in the future. That's what science fiction does. Science takes the currently available data, plots a curve and states "if we continue on this path, this is where we will be."

Let's go back to the top. My predictions were so wrong and yours were dead on? You change your predictions on the number of cases and number of deaths every other day and then argue that the numbers are all wrong, because of everyone's political agenda. Meanwhile, the only 2 predictions I made, I made 2 weeks out. The first one I was over by 7%. I'll take that. The second one, I was way under on my low estimate, but that was the best case number. I'll take that one.

Your ability to predict the stock market doesn't have any effect on the COVID-19 deaths.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2443291]New York went into shelter in place one day after California. Can you explain the reason for the wide difference in the number of cases and deaths in those two states?[/QUOTE]Population density.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443378]Population density.[/QUOTE]Along with a longer influx of infected travelers. People don't seem to understand logarithmic growth.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443378]Population density.[/QUOTE]Social distancing was encouraged at the same time as shelter in place, or earlier. Population density should not have an effect on social distancing, if it is being done.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2443372]I'm pretty sure I said 17,000 on the Dow. I missed all the financial numbers. But you left out my COVID-19 numbers. Why is that?
[/QUOTE]All right. Let us do the whole thing.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2435740]If you make enough correct predictions some people will call you a prophet. If your predictions all miss some will call you a fool. I'm definitely not a prophet and I'm most likely a fool, but I'm willing to put it to the test.

Following are my predictions for April 1, 2020. In 2 weeks you can pull up this post and tell me how big a fool you think I am. I recommend patience. If you spend the next few days telling me how wrong I am, and I'm even close to being right, I'm going to rub your nose in it.

To make it easy to find this post again, just search for jjthefool or jjtheprophet and it should pop right up. Here goes.

Worldwide coronavirus cases - 1,000,000+.

Worldwide coronavirus deaths - 20,000+.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - <17,000.

USD to COP - 4,600 per dollar.

USD to CAD - $1. 60 CAD to USD.

Bitcoin - $4800 per Bitcoin.

For comparison, here are current numbers as of 3:36 am Eastern Time:

Cases - 218,000.

Deaths - 8,700.

DJIA - 19,898.92.

USD to COP - 4158.

USD to CAD - 1.46.

Bitcoin - $5444.67.

I included Canadian dollars because I'm in Canada 2 days a week and there's a possibility I'll get stuck there if the border is closed completely. I included Bitcoin because it's something I'm tracking trying to get a better understanding of how the world economy is reacting.

Watch and wait and start preparing your worst insults.[/QUOTE]Even though you were technically wrong on the number of cases, I think that is more accurate than your number on people who died, so I will give you one right that was wrong and one wrong that was right.

But you were so fucking wrong it is not funny. That is one in six right, and your being a cocky dick telling me about science and predictions and what I do not know. STFU!!

Just so you get it. In the USA, in 2017, there was a total of 80,000 deaths projected. This year, there were 24,000. That is what really bad flu season means. If we go above 80,000 deaths then you can call me wrong and no do not even start with this long time period. As I have said ad nauseam, this virus is crazy contagious and then disappears as fast as it goes up. If you want the over on 80,000 deaths, I will take that bet.

But seriously, why would you even bring this up? 1 in 6 is a fucking F on predictions. Don't worry, pal, one in six is what I expect from "a scientist" and their predictions and projections. Jesus.

But you too go a DK award: [URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect[/URL].

This board seems to have some pretty technically astute guys posting on it and I have tangled with a few of you in the past. Regardless, and something I know on everybody's mind is when and how Colombia will open back up, and the requirements for entry. The title of this thread is "Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates so perhaps some of you have some thoughts about this as I want to return sooner than later. I know other Countries are testing all International arrivals and then they get locked down for two weeks at least that is what is going on in Japan and Singapore. I believe it may be a bit complicated and dependent on the airlines routing such as COPA who don't have any direct flights from the USA into Colombia.

So short of a vaccine with a certificate like the Yellow Fever Certificate, or perhaps an immunity type of certificate sometime in the future, does anyone envision Colombia getting set up to test people on arrival and send them to a Hospital if they are positive like I believe they are doing in Singapore. In Japan, people have been sleeping in cardboard boxes for two days waiting for test results before being quarantined for two weeks. And for those flying on COPA with a layover in Panama City, what happens at that airport in transit.

Will Colombia just take your temperature on arrival and make you quarantine for two weeks like before they shut the borders.

Perhaps they may only allow citizens and residents back into the Country first. I know the airlines have been selling tickets at least COPA has for the month of May so for somebody flying thru Panama City what happens.

Thoughts on this because I am sure each and everyone one of you can't wait to get back.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2443446]This board seems to have some pretty technically astute guys posting on it and I have tangled with a few of you in the past. Regardless, and something I know on everybody's mind is when and how Colombia will open back up, and the requirements for entry. The title of this thread is "Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates so perhaps some of you have some thoughts about this as I want to return sooner than later. I know other Countries are testing all International arrivals and then they get locked down for two weeks at least that is what is going on in Japan and Singapore. I believe it may be a bit complicated and dependent on the airlines routing such as COPA who don't have any direct flights from the USA into Colombia.

So short of a vaccine with a certificate like the Yellow Fever Certificate, or perhaps an immunity type of certificate sometime in the future, does anyone envision Colombia getting set up to test people on arrival and send them to a Hospital if they are positive like I believe they are doing in Singapore. In Japan, people have been sleeping in cardboard boxes for two days waiting for test results before being quarantined for two weeks. And for those flying on COPA with a layover in Panama City, what happens at that airport in transit..[/QUOTE]I have been thinking about this exact topic for weeks. I'm on the same page with you, I doubt they will let anyone in without some type of test or quarantine in place. One option is to force people to go into a 14-day quarantine in a designated place, such as a near by hotel (at traveller's expense). They have done this in Australia. If you don't show symptoms in 14-days, you are allowed in. If they do practice this, it will be for citizens, residents and essential business travel only. I'm going to apply for the business visa just to be on the safe side.

The Copapanama layover issue is interesting, from the stand point of Colombia, they don't care, they will likely apply the same protective measure to all people coming from abroad. The question is will Panamá allow people from abroad enter their airport.

I think one central question we need to answer is that is the curve flattening in Colombia? We have no chance of coming back in unless things are getting significantly better in Medellin.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2443434]Social distancing was encouraged at the same time as shelter in place, or earlier. Population density should not have an effect on social distancing, if it is being done.[/QUOTE]All social distancing does is flatten the curve. It doesn't eliminate transmission. It only slows it down. In big cities epidemics spread a lot faster.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443484]All social distancing does is flatten the curve. It doesn't eliminate transmission. It only slows it down. In big cities epidemics spread a lot faster.[/QUOTE]It will reduce and possibly eliminate transmission, otherwise the majority of the population will be infected eventually.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2443502]It will reduce and possibly eliminate transmission, otherwise the majority of the population will be infected eventually.[/QUOTE]This is the reality staring us in the face. 100% adoption of social distancing for several weeks, and I mean FULL, 100% adoption, could eliminate it. But we need doctors, we need food, etc, so 100% is literally impossible. Therefore, elimination from that method, unfortunately, is a pipe dream.

Social distancing is clearly effective. It bought us time, it's not the cure.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2443446]This board seems to have some pretty technically astute guys posting on it and I have tangled with a few of you in the past. Regardless, and something I know on everybody's mind is when and how Colombia will open back up, and the requirements for entry. The title of this thread is "Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates so perhaps some of you have some thoughts about this as I want to return sooner than later. I know other Countries are testing all International arrivals and then they get locked down for two weeks at least that is what is going on in Japan and Singapore. I believe it may be a bit complicated and dependent on the airlines routing such as COPA who don't have any direct flights from the USA into Colombia.

So short of a vaccine with a certificate like the Yellow Fever Certificate, or perhaps an immunity type of certificate sometime in the future, does anyone envision Colombia getting set up to test people on arrival and send them to a Hospital if they are positive like I believe they are doing in Singapore. In Japan, people have been sleeping in cardboard boxes for two days waiting for test results before being quarantined for two weeks. And for those flying on COPA with a layover in Panama City, what happens at that airport in transit.

Will Colombia just take your temperature on arrival and make you quarantine for two weeks like before they shut the borders.

Perhaps they may only allow citizens and residents back into the Country first. I know the airlines have been selling tickets at least COPA has for the month of May so for somebody flying thru Panama City what happens.

Thoughts on this because I am sure each and everyone one of you can't wait to get back.[/QUOTE]Emirates is now doing 15 minute tests before boarding flight from Detroit, There will be a rapid expansion of this concept.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2443446]This board seems to have some pretty technically astute guys posting on it and I have tangled with a few of you in the past. Regardless, and something I know on everybody's mind is when and how Colombia will open back up, and the requirements for entry. The title of this thread is "Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates so perhaps some of you have some thoughts about this as I want to return sooner than later. I know other Countries are testing all International arrivals and then they get locked down for two weeks at least that is what is going on in Japan and Singapore. I believe it may be a bit complicated and dependent on the airlines routing such as COPA who don't have any direct flights from the USA into Colombia.

So short of a vaccine with a certificate like the Yellow Fever Certificate, or perhaps an immunity type of certificate sometime in the future, does anyone envision Colombia getting set up to test people on arrival and send them to a Hospital if they are positive like I believe they are doing in Singapore. In Japan, people have been sleeping in cardboard boxes for two days waiting for test results before being quarantined for two weeks. And for those flying on COPA with a layover in Panama City, what happens at that airport in transit.

Will Colombia just take your temperature on arrival and make you quarantine for two weeks like before they shut the borders.

Perhaps they may only allow citizens and residents back into the Country first. I know the airlines have been selling tickets at least COPA has for the month of May so for somebody flying thru Panama City what happens.

Thoughts on this because I am sure each and everyone one of you can't wait to get back.[/QUOTE]Probably end up being a combination of things. First, what China is doing. That is not letting anyone in.

Or second. Quarantines on arrival. Canada has been doing that for almost 4 weeks now because we imported a whole bunch of cases with spring break people coming back, and snowbirds. It started as a strongly suggested quarantine, now it is the law and followed up by authorities.

So having a mandatory 2 week quarantine without visitors or being able to go out of your room will put a damper on most tourist demand if that's the route that countries go.

Another option is selective opening up. Say to people from places with 0 new cases for 2 or 3 weeks. And direct from there only. So that will rule out the US for a long time.

I can't see any options less onerous than one of these. For a year or two at least. Because this thing isn't going away basically until and if we have a vaccine.

The immunity certificate might be possible, but there are people who had the thing, recovered, and now have the virus again. Not sure if they are sick the second time around. But that's not promising for the immunity idea.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443484]All social distancing does is flatten the curve. It doesn't eliminate transmission. It only slows it down. In big cities epidemics spread a lot faster.[/QUOTE]Thanks for that response. If the current trend continues, I think in a few months we are going to learn a lot about this virus, some surprising information and some contradictory to what we're being told today.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2443510]Probably end up being a combination of things. First, what China is doing. That is not letting anyone in.

Or second. Quarantines on arrival. Canada has been doing that for almost 4 weeks now because we imported a whole bunch of cases with spring break people coming back, and snowbirds. It started as a strongly suggested quarantine, now it is the law and followed up by authorities.

So having a mandatory 2 week quarantine without visitors or being able to go out of your room will put a damper on most tourist demand if that's the route that countries go.

Another option is selective opening up. Say to people from places with 0 new cases for 2 or 3 weeks. And direct from there only. So that will rule out the US for a long time.

I can't see any options less onerous than one of these. For a year or two at least. Because this thing isn't going away basically until and if we have a vaccine.

The immunity certificate might be possible, but there are people who had the thing, recovered, and now have the virus again. Not sure if they are sick the second time around. But that's not promising for the immunity idea.[/QUOTE]Some of you people astonish me. If we remain under even a partial lockdown for a year or two, the result will be a global economic depression. It won't go that far though, because I'm guessing riots will start long before then.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2443502]It will reduce and possibly eliminate transmission, otherwise the majority of the population will be infected eventually.[/QUOTE]People like Dr Fauci have spoken at length about this. Isolation didn't work so now its mitigation. It's not about eliminating transmission. It's about flattening the curve. The curve won't spike. Instead it will flatten out.

[QUOTE=Kafka;2443509]Emirates is now doing 15 minute tests before boarding flight from Detroit, There will be a rapid expansion of this concept.[/QUOTE]This is good, so when they arrive in the Middle East are they quarantined for two weeks or let free. And how are they handling this at the Detroit airport, is there like a holding area and what happens when someone has tested positive, does all hell break loose. I had almost envisioned something like this say at LAX where you go to a remote parking lot, get tested, and if okay taken by shuttle bus to the International terminal, but this would be months away.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2443446]This board seems to have some pretty technically astute guys posting on it and I have tangled with a few of you in the past. Regardless, and something I know on everybody's min.[/QUOTE]Do you follow this blog? [URL]medellinguru.com[/URL] There is a running article that started Apr 1st and is being continually updated about when Colombia might get back to normal, it is not going to answer your question but it is a man on the ground evaluation of things in Colombia.

[URL]https://medellinguru.com/coronavirus-return-to-normal/[/URL]

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443521]People like Dr Fauci have spoken at length about this. Isolation didn't work so now its mitigation. It's not about eliminating transmission. It's about flattening the curve. The curve won't spike. Instead it will flatten out.[/QUOTE]If the population is two, one with virus, the other without. With isolation, the one with virus will either die or cured, and the virus eventually will die.

For 3 people, A, B, and C. A is infected, B is not infected ,and C is unknown. The isolation will determine if C is infected. If C is infected, then the peak is 2, if not, the peak is 1.

[QUOTE=Kafka;2443509]Emirates is now doing 15 minute tests before boarding flight from Detroit, There will be a rapid expansion of this concept.[/QUOTE]Let us hope you are right, this is exactly what's needed to get things moving everywhere.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443310]The government may feel more comfortable relaxing the travel restrictions. One of the big issues in Colombia and Peru are the lack of conspiratorials. I think Peru has less than 100 ventilators.

[URL]https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52251286[/URL][/QUOTE]There is also this when it comes to increasing conspiratorial capacity,

[URL]https://colombiareports.com/colombia-able-to-mass-produce-ventilators-after-medellin-project-proves-success/[/URL]

[QUOTE=Combo;2443288]I was responding to the poster who called it an obscure blog.[/QUOTE]My Bad Combo and you pointed out that you did not always agree with its conspiratorial outlook, I didn't mean to seem like I was arguing with you. Just trying to agree that the journals finance info is well respected.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2443291]New York went into shelter in place one day after California. Can you explain the reason for the wide difference in the number of cases and deaths in those two states?[/QUOTE]I actually already did this in an earlier post when I described how I usually arrive in NYC. Having lived in California for some years and having visited New York City many times. I am just guessing but seriously think about what I am about say and I think its common sense. California is a car and driving place (SF airport BART is an exception but the ridership is not near NYC) NYC is all about mass transit. From the air trains that connect to commuter trains that bring you into the main trains station to the subway train that takes you to the neighborhood that you are staying or living in. In California one lands at the airport and gets in an Uber or taxi and that driver is the only one that you contact on the way to your destination.

In NYC its more like this Besides it being a place that has thousands of arriving people every day. It is a city that is the opposite of social distancing. When I fly into NYC (imagine I have the virus as I make my trip) I pick a flight going in to either Newark in Jersey or JFK in Queens, but I stay in Manhattan. I avoid LaGuardia airport. Why? Because I hate surface transportation in NYC where the traffic sucks, So I get in a airtrain with about 10 other people (touching contaminating handles and poles the whole time) to take to the train station where we (Myself and the other people that I have now infected because they were breathing the same air as I in a confined space) then each of us get on various trains (myself and all the people I spread it to on the airtrain) into a commuter train car holding 20 or so people who will be breathing the same recycled air as us ( then us and all the people we contaminate along the way as commuter train makes its way to Penn Station and people at get off and people get on at the stops along the way. Then I and the up to as many 200 people who have been contaminated by now (10 on air train) x (20 in each of their train cars) and then we all go get on various subway cars that are packed with like 30 to fifty people. 200 x 50 - we just arrived in the city and we are up to a thousand already.

But in reality everything I just typed happens at a much slower rate of time. My initial trip into Manhattan at most infected like 60 - 80, The virus has to incubate for at least one day before the person is infectious to another person. But it still happens. Over the next days then each of those 80 will probably affect at least 80 people the next day moving around the city's subways and buses 10 million people cram into commuter trains, subway cars, and buses every day in NYC. Breathing the same air and grabbing the same handles. All this was probably quietly going on before any shutdown.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2443549]If the population is two, one with virus, the other without. With isolation, the one with virus will either die or cured, and the virus eventually will die.

For 3 people, A, B, and C. A is infected, B is not infected ,and C is unknown. The isolation will determine if C is infected. If C is infected, then the peak is 2, if not, the peak is 1.[/QUOTE]Isolation didn't work and now its too late. You would need hundreds of thousands of people doing contact tracing to find everyone and isolate them in time. That's why its about mitigation now. None of your "theories" and "feelings" matter. This is what all the experts, including Dr Fauci, are saying. It's about mitigation now.

Sometimes I wonder if some people simply cannot process reality.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443559]I actually already did this in an earlier post when I described how I usually arrive in NYC. .[/QUOTE]Shouldn't the people in charge see the issues you described and suspend mass public transportation and limit travel? That's what Philippines has done.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443559]I actually already did this in an earlier post when I described how I usually arrive in NYC. Having lived in California for some years and having visited New York City many times. I am just guessing but seriously think about what I am about say and I think its common sense. ... Breathing the same air and grabbing the same handles.[/QUOTE]There is another theory (still to be tested) from respected epidemiologists. California has had 1000 deaths to date, NY 7000. CA has 40 million people, NY 20 million, so that's a 14 x greater death rate in NY, which can't be explained just by social distancing. Add to that is that the first reported cases in the US were in California, and that there were no known points of infection for those first few cases. In addition, there were reports in December and January of an "early and severe" flu season, for which this year's flu vaccine didn't seem particularly effective. So, to make the long, plausible detective story shorter, thousands of Chinese tourists came to California on vacation in November, December and January, went to Disneyland or whatever and infected us before the disease was identified (publicly). Therefore, many people here were infectedn (some got sick and died), but without knowing what they had. Hence, there may be a greater percentage of people in the community who are immune.

IMHO, all this panic, social isolation, closing of the tennis courts and massage parlors, etc, is a big, fucking waste. Okay, close the basketball arenas and churches, but the beaches, parks and bait and tackle shops. Stupid.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443548]Do you follow this blog? [URL]medellinguru.com[/URL] There is a running article that started Apr 1st and is being continually updated about when Colombia might get back to normal, it is not going to answer your question but it is a man on the ground evaluation of things in Colombia.

[URL]https://medellinguru.com/coronavirus-return-to-normal/[/URL][/QUOTE]Yes I saw this and today Duque said the Country will not be opening up it's airspace even if the quarantine on the 27th is lifted.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443560]Isolation didn't work and now its too late. You would need hundreds of thousands of people doing contact tracing to find everyone and isolate them in time. That's why its about mitigation now. None of your "theories" and "feelings" matter. This is what all the experts, including Dr Fauci, are saying. It's about mitigation now.[/QUOTE]Now I know what you are talking about. You just use a different definition and you still need isolation. There is also different degree of isolation.

What New York is doing is mild compare to the isolation being done elsewhere so how can one determine isolation does not work when we don't share the same definition?

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443560]
Sometimes I wonder if some people simply cannot process reality.[/QUOTE]You can use my example to tell me why it wound not work. The peak may last longer but the virus will die when it can no longer replicate.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443286][URL]https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-pure-alpha-bridgewater-fund-flat-gains-returns-2019-2020-1-1028800764[/URL]

Ray Dalio's fund saw 0. 5% returns in 2019 as the S&P 500 surged 29%.

You are really hurting my feelings, dude![/QUOTE]And the rest of the article said. "Bridgewater's other funds fared better than Pure Alpha in 2019 - the All Weather fund returned 16%, and the All Weather China fund returned 20.1%, according to Institutional Investor. ".

This just in from FT.

[URL]https://www.ft.com/content/81e074cc-3950-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4[/URL]

Although Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates had a lacklustre year, it retained its top spot in the overall ranking of all time with $58.5 bn of gains since it launched in 1975.

[QUOTE=BodyAnybody;2443514]Some of you people astonish me. If we remain under even a partial lockdown for a year or two, the result will be a global economic depression. It won't go that far though, because I'm guessing riots will start long before then.[/QUOTE]It would be beyond a depression -- not sure what term to use. You'd also have suicides from people going crazy from the social isolation. Social distancing is not mentally healthy.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2443562]Add to that is that the first reported cases in the US were in California, and that there were no known points of infection for those first few cases. In addition, there were reports in December and January of an "early and severe" flu season, for which this year's flu vaccine didn't seem particularly effective. So, to make the long, plausible detective story shorter, thousands of Chinese tourists came to California on vacation in November, December and January, went to Disneyland or whatever and infected us before the disease was identified (publicly). Therefore, many people here were infectedn (some got sick and died), but without knowing what they had. Hence, there may be a greater percentage of people in the community who are immune.

IMHO, all this panic, social isolation, closing of the tennis courts and massage parlors, etc, is a big, fucking waste. Okay, close the basketball arenas and churches, but the beaches, parks and bait and tackle shops. Stupid.[/QUOTE]Wow, great post, JC! I would add the Covid test is only 70% sensitive, and my gut feeling is that it is even lower than that because there was such political pressure to produce a test even a test that was not that good.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2443565]...There is also different degree of isolation...What New York is doing is mild compare to the isolation being done elsewhere...[/QUOTE]There is also effective vs. Ineffective. Clearly, the "strict" isolation done in Wuhan, Milan or aboard the "Diamond Princess" where healthy were confined with infected in a closed structure with shared ventilation was ineffective at preventing infection. If you live in a building with 2000 other people, the best thing you can do for the health of the community is, infected or healthy, to sit outside (6' away from others) for 16 hours a day. Spend the minimum amount of time (or shed the minimum amount of virus) in the pest hole you call home.

[QUOTE=BodyAnybody;2443514]Some of you people astonish me. If we remain under even a partial lockdown for a year or two, the result will be a global economic depression. It won't go that far though, because I'm guessing riots will start long before then.[/QUOTE]As bad as things are here, BA, they are that much worse in Colombia. The financial situation is awful there. The chicas I have met before and talked to have been so grateful for me giving them $30 to $40 just for groceries.

I know most of the time you do something like this a chica will take the money and run and say "Ha Ha sucker!" and never speak to you again. The women now are taking picture of the food they are buying, the medications for their parents, doing sex videos for me, telling me how good they are going to fuck me when I return, and instead of not talking to me, I cannot even get them off the phone.

There is no way Colombia can stay in prolonged lock down for years. The people cannot afford it. Hell, there were riots or whatever in Michigan today, and one of my chicas said there has been unrest in Colombia as well. The government can do what it wants, but the citizens of both countries are not going to go along with it for a year. What are you going to do? Lock everyone up? We are looking at a few more weeks. The government can do what it wants, but people are not going to tolerate more than that.

[URL]https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-canada-surge-hospitals-icus-deaths-1.5533391[/URL]

President Duque already announced limited commercial activity will resume April 27.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443596]As bad as things are here, BA, they are that much worse in Colombia. The financial situation is awful there. The chicas I have met before and talked to have been so grateful for me giving them $30 to $40 just for groceries.

I know most of the time you do something like this a chica will take the money and run and say "Ha Ha sucker!" and never speak to you again. The women now are taking picture of the food they are buying, the medications for their parents, doing sex videos for me, telling me how good they are going to fuck me when I return, and instead of not talking to me, I cannot even get them off the phone.

There is no way Colombia can stay in prolonged lock down for years. The people cannot afford it. Hell, there were riots or whatever in Michigan today, and one of my chicas said there has been unrest in Colombia as well. The government can do what it wants, but the citizens of both countries are not going to go along with it for a year. What are you going to do? Lock everyone up? We are looking at a few more weeks. The government can do what it wants, but people are not going to tolerate more than that.[/QUOTE]

Elvis 2008.

I did what you requested someone else to do. I went back and read what you have said. It wasn't the way I wanted to spend my morning, but since I got a rude, early, work related, awakening, I needed something to pass the time. I created my own Elvis COVID-19 claims file. It makes for some interesting reading. Looks like I'll have the time this weekend to go through and copy / paste all the relative pieces. I'm not sure you want me to do that.

I can give you a few highlights.

You suggested the US wouldn't reach 200,000 known cases. You suggested the US deaths would not reach 25,000. You said it was no worse than a flu season and pointed to this season. You suggested it was no worse than a bad flu season. You suggested it is no worse than a really bad flu season and used the number 80,000 deaths for the year the CDC estimated 61,000 deaths. Oops. I almost forgot. Before all that you said it was much worse than the flu.

Do you own stock in a company which specializes in moving goalposts? Because you're giving them a shitload of work.

I admit when I'm wrong. I even set myself up to be wrong. As a few people have noted, I'm not a finance guy. The ups and downs of the markets hold no interest. I threw in the Dow, COP, CAD and BTC numbers for my reference. I wanted to remember what my mid March guesses were. Being wrong on those 4 means nothing to me.

My other 2 numbers, apparently you don't understand. When I said 1 million+ cases, any number less than 1 million is wrong. It's a threshold. When I said 20,000+ deaths, any number, 20 k and up is correct. It's a threshold. If the actual numbers had been 999,999 and 19,999 then I would have been wrong on both. Now if I had left off the plus sign, then we could call the 1 million close and the 20 k a complete failure. Those would have been specific predictions. Yes, I only got 1 of 6 right, but it's the one that matters.

Surely you understand that? Don't investors use the same thing? Set a buy or sell price? If you want to buy when a stock drops to $20 per share, you don't buy at $23 because it's close, and you don't cancel the buy if it drops to $15. Of course that assumes more information doesn't come available. You might learn the upside is bigger than previously thought and decide $23 is the bottom. You also might learn of an upcoming downside and realize $15 is going to drop to $10.

Weird as it may seem, I understand science. Perhaps even stranger, you don't. Before your panties get in a bunch, take a moment to digest this. I'm not going to go back and quote you, because I'm getting hungry. I'll do so this weekend if you request.

You said something about science being wrong because it was just a theory. That's akin to the Black Knight in "The Holy Grail" stating "It's just a flesh wound" after both his arms are cut off.

The scientific definition of a theory is the current, best explanation for observable phenomena which accounts for all known data without contradiction.

Theories evolve over time. As more is learned the theory must continue to account for everything known. Occasionally this requires a few steps backwards, but it's extremely rare for a theory to be discarded.

People say "it's just a theory" without understanding what that means. Gravity is just a theory. Light is just a theory. Electricity is just a theory.

Make your guesses, give your opinions and stick with what you know. Stay away from science.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443596]There is no way Colombia can stay in prolonged lock down for years. The people cannot afford it. Hell, there were riots or whatever in Michigan today, and one of my chicas said there has been unrest in Colombia as well. The government can do what it wants, but the citizens of both countries are not going to go along with it for a year. What are you going to do? Lock everyone up? We are looking at a few more weeks. The government can do what it wants, but people are not going to tolerate more than that.[/QUOTE]There is a video on Facebook of a gang of people stopping a food truck on the highway from the airport to Medellin, searching for food. When people are starving, they will take drastic measures. I hope something is done before those measures become widespread.

A few days ago, I saw Don Peeples on TV. He is a real estate entrepreneur and political activist (Democrat), and named one of the 40 most powerful African Americans in business. He said this virus cannot destroy the United States, even while causing many deaths; but the economic shutdown will destroy the country if allowed to go on more than a few more months. I believe he is correct.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2443718]
A few days ago, I saw Don Peeples on TV. He is a real estate entrepreneur and political activist (Democrat), and named one of the 40 most powerful African Americans in business. He said this virus cannot destroy the United States, even while causing many deaths; but the economic shutdown will destroy the country if allowed to go on more than a few more months. I believe he is correct.[/QUOTE]It's the same thing:

Option (A): The Great Lockdown. Saves lives but locks down many businesses. Hurts the economy.

Option (B): No lockdown: millions die and people are too afraid to go out. Businesses end up shutting down. Hurts economy.

Option (A) at least lets you control how bad things get instead of leaving it up to chance.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443721]It's the same thing:

Option (A): The Great Lockdown. Saves lives but locks down many businesses. Hurts the economy.

Option (B): No lockdown: millions die and people are too afraid to go out. Businesses end up shutting down. Hurts economy.

Option (A) at least lets you control how bad things get instead of leaving it up to chance.[/QUOTE]I think what will happen is somewhere between those options. But, I think I would rephrase your options. We think of "the economy" in terms of dollars, of markets. What is so evident now more than ever is economy = people.

No doubt, what I am saying is cold and void of emotion and compassion. And I readily admit you cannot put a dollar amount on a human life. Option A has, so far, removed the ability to earn a living, pay mortgage and rent, pay for 3 square meals for more than 22 million people. So what is the magic number? You say millions die. I don't know that I would concede that point but for arguments sake, what is the number of unemployed or hungry or homeless that would tip the scale to option be? 25 million? 40 million?

I totally agree with your point about fear. I think that fear is already there. I believe there are large numbers of people that will be reluctant and very slow to return to normal (whatever that will look like). Personally, while I have mixed feeling on this shutdown and the Constitutionality, I believe our governments have done the right thing to this point. But I strongly feel we are at a tipping point. There are 2 Congressmen who are proposing $2000/ month payments to most Americans until this is over. I understand the sentiment. But that is so far beyond sustainable, it's laughable. I believe the suggestion was a poorly veiled political stunt. But the sad fact is that it is actually a need. My point: this economy is at the breaking point.

We're between the rock and a hard place. But if we keep economies closed for months, that rock and a hard place will close in quickly. We are nearing the point of no return. Our governments would never tell us that. But look at the numbers being tossed about. Even the US, which can print money at will, cannot survive 3 more months of this.

We will see more Lansing, Michigans. We will see more and more violent acts out of desperation.

Option be isn't the perfect solution. There is no perfect solution. But giving people the freedom to make the choice. Let the people evaluate their risks. Yes, absolutely, we should all consider public health, not just our own personal health. But we can no longer ignore the public health impacts of the shutdown, of 22 million people without incomes, without considering how many small businesses will never return, of the loss of job prospects, of the desperation due to the lack of basic human necessities.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443721]It's the same thing:

Option (A): The Great Lockdown. Saves lives but locks down many businesses. Hurts the economy.

Option (B): No lockdown: millions die and people are too afraid to go out. Businesses end up shutting down. Hurts economy.

Option (A) at least lets you control how bad things get instead of leaving it up to chance.[/QUOTE]Option (B), history is proof that people are not afraid to go out.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2443750]Option (B), history is proof that people are not afraid to go out.[/QUOTE]What are you talking about? What history?

People are already leaving essential jobs like food processing plants and long-term care homes because they're afraid. Amazon employees are protesting unsafe work conditions. Do you actually think restaurants and sport venues would still be able to have customers when there is an infectious virus out there putting people in the ICU? What do you think New York City would look like if there wasn't a lockdown? You really think all these various governments at various levels are scrambling because they think this is like the seasonal flu? Are you that insane?

Accept reality.

Last night communist dictator Ortega came out of a month long hiding and announced on state run tv that there is no real threat from the covid99 and no quoronteen in Nicaragua because the people need to work. He did bash the US too and blamed others.

Scary how similar to Trump and Fox News.

No difference except the names.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443758]What are you talking about? What history?

People are already leaving essential jobs like food processing plants and long-term care homes because they're afraid. Amazon employees are protesting unsafe work conditions. Do you actually think restaurants and sport venues would still be able to have customers when there is an infectious virus out there putting people in the ICU? What do you think New York City would look like if there wasn't a lockdown? You really think all these various governments at various levels are scrambling because they think this is like the seasonal flu? Are you that insane?

Accept reality.[/QUOTE]Lansing, Michigan.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443596]As bad as things are here, BA, they are that much worse in Colombia. The financial situation is awful there. The chicas I have met before and talked to have been so grateful for me giving them $30 to $40 just for groceries.

I know most of the time you do something like this a chica will take the money and run and say "Ha Ha sucker!" and never speak to you again. The women now are taking picture of the food they are buying, the medications for their parents, doing sex videos for me, telling me how good they are going to fuck me when I return, and instead of not talking to me, I cannot even get them off the phone.

There is no way Colombia can stay in prolonged lock down for years. The people cannot afford it. Hell, there were riots or whatever in Michigan today, and one of my chicas said there has been unrest in Colombia as well. The government can do what it wants, but the citizens of both countries are not going to go along with it for a year. What are you going to do? Lock everyone up? We are looking at a few more weeks. The government can do what it wants, but people are not going to tolerate more than that.[/QUOTE]I have to agree that a lock down can only be sustained for a few more weeks at max is right, even people who intellectually agree currently that it is a good ideal will start to feel the anxiety of an economic shutdown and of being shut ins and even these rational people overtime would start acting out. Whether or not it is Coronavirus related is debatable but there have been an uptick in family members murdering family members in the NYC area. One was murder suicide, obviously these were disturbed people anyway but the lockdown might be exacerbating their problems.

One unsustainable situation related to the shutdown, which although outside of the retail and service sector economics is directly related. That is the drastic decrease in state revenues because of the drop in retail sales. This could have an impact on hospitals capacity to treat patients . Most states have balanced budget laws, most states get a hefty percentage of revenue from retail sales taxes, most wrote their budgets with a rosy economy on their minds, states pay a minimum of 10% of all hospital bills through medicaid and often contribute more to cover the uninsured that wind up in the ER. IF the states can't carry their water with the hospitals than the hospitals could go broke and complicate the treatment of COVID-19 patients. I might be wrong about this, and I am sure that if varies from state to state but even if I am only partially correct than again there is no way for anyone to conceive of a year long shut down. I do not know how public university hospitals are financed in conjunction with state budgets but even a private university hospital sees state money through medicaid payments.

Looking at what's been announced so far I think here will be a compromise and a complete lockdown is not going to be an option. Something to the tune of 'all elderly, asthmatics, diabetics, etc, stay home and stay ostracized. Younger healthy people go back to work and stay away from the elderly etc. Blah blah blah". I don't think its going to be an all or nothing type thing, and it will not happen uniformly in all locations in the US anyway. Maybe Colombia will do something similar?

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443766]

Looking at what's been announced so far I think here will be a compromise and a complete lockdown is not going to be an option. Something to the tune of 'all elderly, asthmatics, diabetics, etc, stay home and stay ostracized. Younger healthy people go back to work and stay away from the elderly etc. Blah blah blah". I don't think its going to be an all or nothing type thing, and it will not happen uniformly in all locations in the US anyway. Maybe Colombia will do something similar?[/QUOTE]Duque already proposed this and local governments laughed at him. He called it an "intelligent quarantine" but the mayor of Bogota said it's not intelligent at all. Old people in Colombia live with young people.

It's not getting through to people unfortunately. The lockdown isn't some optional thing that can be just lifted without consequences. You start easing now and the economy won't simply jump start again. I'm not going to a bar, or a movie theatre for another year. Lockdown or no lockdown. I'm staying mostly home where its safe.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443766] Something to the tune of 'all elderly, asthmatics, diabetics, etc, stay home and stay ostracized. Younger healthy people go back to work and stay away from the elderly etc. Blah blah blah". [/QUOTE]Who knows where the details will land. And I believe some nations are doing just that. In theory, I think this is a great approach. But how do you police that? Worse, if I have asthma, you are telling me I can't work like my neighbor next door? I really thought antibody testing and some certification would be the answer. Well, beyond the challenges of the antibody test, we would still be treating those that haven't had the virus like the asthmatic. Selectively ostracizing them, not allowing them to work? And whether I'm an asthmatic or I don't have immunity, what is the end game? The vaccine? So now we have created a caste system of sorts.

As I said, it is a good idea in theory. I just don't feel comfortable with the unintended consequences. And I agree, lifting all restrictions isn't a perfect answer either. But, I would rather leave the decision for the asthmatic to ostracize themselves vs telling them they are ostracized.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443768]It's not getting through to people, unfortunately. The lockdown isn't some optional thing that can be just lifted without consequences.[/QUOTE]A lot of people (Colombians included) are in very bad shape to this; A lot of the world lives check to check, and guaranteed riots will eventually kill more than the virus will.

Frankly, I'm in the camp that we should have let the virus takes it's. 01% toll on the world rather than tank the world economy. If we "flatten the curve" by staying in, people who stay in, won't get it. But look at what this has done. I bet 1000000 x to 1 that every government and terrorist organization is realizing that virii are more powerful than bombs now. What precedent have we set that the world can shut down with something that is 1/1000th POTENTIALLY deadly? The amount of rampant power abuse that is happening right now in every country to "flatten the curve" is disgusting. Imagine if this was even 5% deadly? We would have death camps by now with the government tearing people from their homes. I'm no "Sovereign Citizen" but the constitution is not supposed to be thrown out the window when we get something that is less deadly than the flu.

We all want Columbia (and the rest of the world) to open back up. I need me chicas Colombians.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443768]Duque already proposed this and local governments laughed at him. He called it an "intelligent quarantine" but the mayor of Bogota said it's not intelligent at all. Old people in Colombia live with young people.

It's not getting through to people unfortunately. The lockdown isn't some optional thing that can be just lifted without consequences. You start easing now and the economy won't simply jump start again. I'm not going to a bar, or a movie theatre for another year. Lockdown or no lockdown. I'm staying mostly home where its safe.[/QUOTE]I'll go out once I'm sure my area / province / country has few to no new cases happening. We will get to that here.

But my prediction is that the US will open up. Relatively soon, and they'll have new spikes in cases in those places that do open up. Not so much through workplace spread. Because workplaces will get a handle on testing everyone, but through community interaction. After a while, 2 or 3 spikes and a few thousands more deaths, something will change. I don't know what.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443768]Duque already proposed this and local governments laughed at him. He called it an "intelligent quarantine" but the mayor of Bogota said it's not intelligent at all. Old people in Colombia live with young people.

It's not getting through to people unfortunately. The lockdown isn't some optional thing that can be just lifted without consequences. You start easing now and the economy won't simply jump start again. I'm not going to a bar, or a movie theatre for another year. Lockdown or no lockdown. I'm staying mostly home where its safe.[/QUOTE]The main group of people I see screaming for months or years of lockdown are old and scared and willing to sacrifice a decade of young peoples future so they can feel safe.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443758]What are you talking about? What history?

People are already leaving essential jobs like food processing plants and long-term care homes because they're afraid. Amazon employees are protesting unsafe work conditions. Do you actually think restaurants and sport venues would still be able to have customers when there is an infectious virus out there putting people in the ICU? What do you think New York City would look like if there wasn't a lockdown? You really think all these various governments at various levels are scrambling because they think this is like the seasonal flu? Are you that insane?

Accept reality.[/QUOTE]You should accept reality instead of constantly attacking anyone who you don't agree with. Maybe you didn't see the demonstrations in Michigan and North Caroline yesterday. More demonstrations are planned for during the next few days in other states. Anything that has already happened is history. You do not know what will happen in the future. You are making assumptions. You are only blabbering.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2443785]You should accept reality instead of constantly attacking anyone who you don't agree with. Maybe you didn't see the demonstrations in Michigan and North Caroline yesterday. More demonstrations are planned for during the next few days in other states. Anything that has already happened is history. You do not know what will happen in the future. You are making assumptions. You are only blabbering.[/QUOTE]Yes I do know about the demonstrators. It doesn't change anything. Keep believing this lock down is optional and its just like the flu.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443786]Yes I do know about the demonstrators. It doesn't change anything. Keep believing this lock down is optional and its just like the flu.[/QUOTE]I have never stated that this virus is just like the flu. On March 16, you stated "In the next two weeks North America is going to go through what Italy has been going through." I don't need to say anymore.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2443785]You should accept reality instead of constantly attacking anyone who you don't agree with. Maybe you didn't see the demonstrations in Michigan and North Caroline yesterday. More demonstrations are planned for during the next few days in other states. Anything that has already happened is history. You do not know what will happen in the future. You are making assumptions. You are only blabbering.[/QUOTE]In my country we live life pretty much as normal except from no big events and no discos / bars. No lockdown needed.

The virus isn't especially dangerous for people under 60 without health problems. 22 million unemployed in four weeks, that's terrifying and know that it will affect all countries. I don't know if USA should end the lockdown considering the general health problems among Americans.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443766]
Looking at what's been announced so far I think here will be a compromise and a complete lockdown is not going to be an option. Something to the tune of 'all elderly, asthmatics, diabetics, etc, stay home and stay ostracized. Younger healthy people go back to work and stay away from the elderly etc. Blah blah blah". I don't think its going to be an all or nothing type thing, and it will not happen uniformly in all locations in the US anyway. Maybe Colombia will do something similar?[/QUOTE]I agree. Trump is supposed to be releasing a lockdown reduction plan tonight. Governors from some states like North Dakota are pushing for it. We will see things get back to somewhat normal here in much of the country next month.

Colombia is trickier because the government does not have as much power or respect as ours does, and it has fewer health care resources. There are a lot of provinces or departments or states or whatever they are called that have few to no cases. I could see them opening up those provinces sooner and see how things go. Bogota though will likely be the last part of the country to open up.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443786]Yes I do know about the demonstrators. It doesn't change anything. Keep believing this lock down is optional and its just like the flu.[/QUOTE]Sorry, YK, but your POV is getting more and more minority. This is the most liked comment on Zero Hedge today about the virus:

"Millions will die. Make that 200 k will die. Make that 100 k will die. Make that 60 k will die. Remove NYC from the stats and 30 k might die.

Let's lockdown 329,940,000 healthy people to slow the death of 60,000."

There will be a political calculation made to appease the POV of a lot of people who feels as this poster does.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2443790]I have never stated that this virus is just like the flu. On March 16, you stated "In the next two weeks North America is going to go through what Italy has been going through." I don't need to say anymore.[/QUOTE]Yes look at the death count in the US. It's twice as much as Italy every day. Look at New York City. I was on point.

Look man. You're fucked. I'm fucked. We're all fucked. Best not to presume we'll be fine in a few weeks time and this will all get sorted out. Put away enough cash for 12 months. Invest the rest in intervals. Stay home. Win.

Gilead might be a good investment.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443805]Yes look at the death count in the US. It's twice as much as Italy every day. Look at New York City. I was on point.

Look man. You're fucked. I'm fucked. We're all fucked. Best not to presume we'll be fine in a few weeks time and this will all get sorted out. Put away enough cash for 12 months. Invest the rest in intervals. Stay home. Win.[/QUOTE]

That's not a bad description of what the Tea Party movement was.

[QUOTE=BodyAnybody;2443781]The main group of people I see screaming for months or years of lockdown are old and scared and willing to sacrifice a decade of young peoples future so they can feel safe.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443805]Yes look at the death count in the US. It's twice as much as Italy every day. Look at New York City. I was on point.

Look man. You're fucked. I'm fucked. We're all fucked. Best not to presume we'll be fine in a few weeks time and this will all get sorted out. Put away enough cash for 12 months. Invest the rest in intervals. Stay home. Win.[/QUOTE]California had the first confirmed cases in the US, but the death rate here is 1/20th NY. Why is that?

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2443820]California had the first confirmed cases in the US, but the death rate here is 1/20th NY. Why is that?[/QUOTE]I responded to a question earlier about this. Throughout history big cities do much worse during an epidemic. Everyone drives in LA. Everyone takes the subway in NY City. Heck you would take a train from New Jersey to work in NY City.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2443805]Yes look at the death count in the US. It's twice as much as Italy every day. Look at New York City. I was on point.[/QUOTE]The population of Italy is approximately 60.36 million; the US, 328.2 million. More than five times more in the US than Italy. On March 16, there were a total of 36 deaths per one million people in Italy. On March 30, there were a total of 10 deaths per one million people in the US. The total death count on those two days was 2158 for Italy and 3150 for the US. So if you want to compare a total count between two countries in which one has more than five times the population of the other, then I suppose you were on point; but I wouldn't say they are going through the same thing at the same level.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2443820]California had the first confirmed cases in the US, but the death rate here is 1/20th NY. Why is that?[/QUOTE]It's not "the count" but how they're counting. And, we'll in due time be seeing why a high count has been incentivized.

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[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2443826]The population of Italy is approximately 60.36 million; the US, 328.2 million. More than five times more in the US than Italy. On March 16, there were a total of 36 deaths per one million people in Italy. On March 30, there were a total of 10 deaths per one million people in the US. The total death count on those two days was 2158 for Italy and 3150 for the US. So if you want to compare a total count between two countries in which one has more than five times the population of the other, then I suppose you were on point; but I wouldn't say they are going through the same thing at the same level.[/QUOTE]Fun Luvr, you're not taking into account the up to two week incubation period and the fact that the US went on lockdown around the time deaths started to mount in Italy. That's one of the more dangerous things that may happen. People are going to blame health officials when things turn out better without giving them credit.

[QUOTE=ChuchoLoco;2443760]Last night communist dictator Ortega came out of a month long hiding and announced on state run tv that there is no real threat from the covid99 and no quoronteen in Nicaragua because the people need to work. He did bash the US too and blamed others.

Scary how similar to Trump and Fox News.

No difference except the names.[/QUOTE]And except for certain locations, not in Nic. , he is correct.

Two people at the Minorista market have tested positive for coronavirus. I don't know if they worked there or were customers. The Department of Health has said that anyone who has been in that market during the last two weeks should call a number they set up. If the people do not have any symptoms, they will be told to isolate for 14 days. One of my friends was there Monday of last week. She has three more days of isolation.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443795]Sorry, YK, but your POV is getting more and more minority. This is the most liked comment on Zero Hedge today about the virus:

"Millions will die. Make that 200 k will die. Make that 100 k will die. Make that 60 k will die. Remove NYC from the stats and 30 k might die.

Let's lockdown 329,940,000 healthy people to slow the death of 60,000."

There will be a political calculation made to appease the POV of a lot of people who feels as this poster does.[/QUOTE]The death rate is low because of social distancing. Because everyone is locked down. That is obvious. The only way to know otherwise is if it were possible to see what would have happen with zero social distancing and social distancing in a parallel world as a control group. Why are you consistently getting your information about a pandemic from a finance blog instead of epidemiologists? Are the epidemiologists are part of some conspiracy? If you were an epidemiologists you say lets plan for the worst that can happen. Then as steps are taken: flights are stopped from China, flights are stopped from Europe, etc practice social distancing and when they are successful you turn around say there estimates were wrong and so they were lying the whole time? NYC hospitals have been like a war zone. Converting otherwise used units into ICUs and Isolation wards. Teams of medical professionals have flown in from places like Ohio and Utah, and you keep singing this song about how the virus is not as deadly as they say.

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2443733]
We will see more Lansing, Michigans. We will see more and more violent acts out of desperation.

Option be isn't the perfect solution. There is no perfect solution. But giving people the freedom to make the choice. Let the people evaluate their risks. Yes, absolutely, we should all consider public health, not just our own personal health. But we can no longer ignore the public health impacts of the shutdown, of 22 million people without incomes, without considering how many small businesses will never return, of the loss of job prospects, of the desperation due to the lack of basic human necessities.[/QUOTE]The problem with with the ideal of "Freedom of choice" and letting people"evaluate their risk" when dealing with a contagious disease is that these people are going to spread it to other people. If someone is allowed to catch the disease than that's their choice sure. But are they also going to be responsible and stay home after they catch it- not go to the grocery store and breath all of over people? The ones who don't give a shit about being careful are not going to be trusted to keep themselves away from other people.

You know these protests do not reflect how the majority of people think right? Two polls, one from Gallup the other from a very respected marketing company.

71% of Americans are not ready to just jump back in to normalcy but are in a wait and see mode to see what happens with this virus.

[URL]https://news.gallup.com/poll/308264/americans-remain-risk-averse-getting-back-normal.aspx[/URL]

"69% saying they can accept extreme limitations for more than a month if it helps to suppress the infection rate. Two-thirds go so far as to say they don't care how long restrictions are in place if it prevents widespread illness and death. ".

[URL]https://www.herald-dispatch.com/wcn/wc_news/research-america-americans-are-optimistic-despite-uncertainty-amid-pandemic/article_679a2b77-78b1-544e-925f-30bb42194585.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443860]Why are you consistently getting your information about a pandemic from a finance blog instead of epidemiologists?[/QUOTE]I am not talking about information. I am talking about a public opinion that is growing.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443860]Are the epidemiologists are part of some conspiracy? If you were an epidemiologists you say lets plan for the worst that can happen.[/QUOTE]And I have said repeatedly that I would have done exactly as they have said and done.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443860]Teams of medical professionals have flown in from places like Ohio and Utah, and you keep singing this song about how the virus is not as deadly as they say.[/QUOTE]As the poster pointed out (not me but I agree with it), the number of expected dead per the experts you are talking about has gone from millions to.

60,000. That is a fact.

I don't know why you are giving me a hard time about this.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443860]The death rate is low because of social distancing. Because everyone is locked down. That is obvious. The only way to know otherwise is if it were possible to see what would have happen with zero social distancing and social distancing in a parallel world as a control group. Why are you consistently getting your information about a pandemic from a finance blog instead of epidemiologists? Are the epidemiologists are part of some conspiracy? If you were an epidemiologists you say lets plan for the worst that can happen. Then as steps are taken: flights are stopped from China, flights are stopped from Europe, etc practice social distancing and when they are successful you turn around say there estimates were wrong and so they were lying the whole time? NYC hospitals have been like a war zone. Converting otherwise used units into ICUs and Isolation wards. Teams of medical professionals have flown in from places like Ohio and Utah, and you keep singing this song about how the virus is not as deadly as they say.[/QUOTE]We already have the zero social distancing Control groups. Many of them.

The first and best documented is the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Of a crew of 4,800 healthy, young adults, 585 have tested positive, with 100% tested. If they test the remainder again in a few days, we should have a best case number for the percentage of the population susceptible to infection.

The next control group is just about any affected nursing home. I'll use the local one I know and wrote about last week. As of April 14 there has been 1 death. Eight patients and 8 staff have all tested positive, 4 of the patients are hospitalized. This is out of a population of about 60. Once again a follow-up test will be needed to get a worst case scenario.

From these 2, we know that the disease isn't much more contagious than suspected and reported. It also greatly reduces the probability that there have been many more undetected cases than expected.

I seem to recall the experts saying that 60 million US citizens would catch the disease. That number, 18%, falls between the Roosevelt infection rate of 12% and the nursing home rate of 28%. It almost appears as if the experts know what they're talking about.

Over the past week I've been talking to a lot of Colombianas. I'm finding a widespread sampling. Some are barrio rats, some are upper middle class. I've talked with women from several cities as well.

I'm not seeing desperation. I ask each one how the quarantine is going and I'm not getting panicked answers. I even flat out offered to give 1 girl money to help buy groceries, no strings attached, and she turned it down. They do seem to be getting a little stir crazy. They want to get out to dance and party. But starvation and panic don't seem to be anywhere near.

On the upside, got a girl who wants me to come to Cartagena and visit the islands with her, a girl in Armenia who wants to cook for me, 1 in Bogota who wants to go clubbing, and 2 in Medellin who want to take me to their favorite restaurants.

I believe Colombia isn't about to collapse.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443874]The problem with with the ideal of "Freedom of choice" and letting people"evaluate their risk" when dealing with a contagious disease is that these people are going to spread it to other people. If someone is allowed to catch the disease than that's their choice sure. But are they also going to be responsible and stay home after they catch it- not go to the grocery store and breath all of over people? The ones who don't give a shit about being careful are not going to be trusted to keep themselves away from other people.

You know these protests do not reflect how the majority of people think right? Two polls, one from Gallup the other from a very respected marketing company.

71% of Americans are not ready to just jump back in to normalcy but are in a wait and see mode to see what happens with this virus.

[URL]https://news.gallup.com/poll/308264/americans-remain-risk-averse-getting-back-normal.aspx[/URL]

"69% saying they can accept extreme limitations for more than a month if it helps to suppress the infection rate. Two-thirds go so far as to say they don't care how long restrictions are in place if it prevents widespread illness and death. ".

[URL]https://www.herald-dispatch.com/wcn/wc_news/research-america-americans-are-optimistic-despite-uncertainty-amid-pandemic/article_679a2b77-78b1-544e-925f-30bb42194585.html[/URL][/QUOTE]You are 100% correct about thr freedom of choice argument. That is one of the flaws. I would just counter, that would also allow for the decision to shelter in place. I can choose to avoid situations where I come into contact with those people. In reality, it is not that simple, but conceptually, I am not at any more risk.

As for the polls, well, I take all polls with less than a grain of salt. But right now, the only thing that experiences social pressure more than "stay at home" is mongering. LOL. But seriously, I do not think a majority of people are ready to take to the streets. But the longer this goes, the more desperate people will get. Let's say the polls are right. Can you imagine what our society looks like in a month when that 29% is desperate to find basic necessities. It comes down to fear. Right now we fear this invisible enemy. But put my shelter at risk, put my food supply at risk and this invisible enemy falls on my fear list.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2443900]We already have the zero social distancing Control groups. Many of them.

The first and best documented is the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Of a crew of 4,800 healthy, young adults, 585 have tested positive, with 100% tested. If they test the remainder again in a few days, we should have a best case number for the percentage of the population susceptible to infection.

The next control group is just about any affected nursing home. I'll use the local one I know and wrote about last week. As of April 14 there has been 1 death. Eight patients and 8 staff have all tested positive, 4 of the patients are hospitalized. This is out of a population of about 60. Once again a follow-up test will be needed to get a worst case scenario.

From these 2, we know that the disease isn't much more contagious than suspected and reported. It also greatly reduces the probability that there have been many more undetected cases than expected.

I seem to recall the experts saying that 60 million US citizens would catch the disease. That number, 18%, falls between the Roosevelt infection rate of 12% and the nursing home rate of 28%. It almost appears as if the experts know what they're talking about.[/QUOTE]Unfortunately our nursing home experiences have been worse here. Infection rates are running over 50% in some, and deaths are approaching or at 50% in some. But. In some of these homes, especially in those that require a higher level of care, many of the residents have "DNR" orders. And depending on the "do not resuscitate" order they would not be put on ventilators or other invasive procedures, but merely provided with comfort and pain control. So. The percentages that die are high, but it is not known how many of those might have been saved if treated more intensively. Among these nursing homes / retirement homes there have been some horror stories. Low paid staff not showing up for work (understandably), residents / patients neglected horribly, and added deaths. Most of these in the private sector nursing homes.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2443900]We already have the zero social distancing Control groups. Many of them.
[/QUOTE]I don't know what is your exact definition of "zero social distancing". There are plenty of examples that the whole family got infected from one member. A family is closer to zero social distancing than an aircraft carrier.

I also have question like are the sick sailors allowed to interact with others like usual.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2443907]Over the past week I've been talking to a lot of Colombianas. I'm finding a widespread sampling. Some are barrio rats, some are upper middle class. I've talked with women from several cities as well.

I'm not seeing desperation. I ask each one how the quarantine is going and I'm not getting panicked answers. I even flat out offered to give 1 girl money to help buy groceries, no strings attached, and she turned it down. They do seem to be getting a little stir crazy. They want to get out to dance and party. But starvation and panic don't seem to be anywhere near.

On the upside, got a girl who wants me to come to Cartagena and visit the islands with her, a girl in Armenia who wants to cook for me, 1 in Bogota who wants to go clubbing, and 2 in Medellin who want to take me to their favorite restaurants.

I believe Colombia isn't about to collapse.[/QUOTE]I don't know if your aware of this, but on Thursday residents in parts of Bogota gathered to demand authorities provide aid as a result of of the restrictive measures along with roadblocks in parts of Bogota, and security forces deployed tear gas to disperse crowds although no injuries had been reported as of Thursday night.

I have a hard time imagining how the Strata 1 and 2 people are able to survive in Colombia right now, and if things don't get better soon, there will be an uptick in protests, violence, etc. This is just my opinion, and I hope this doesn't happen. Hopefully Colombia will come out of the Pandemic soon and less scarred than other Countries.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2443907]Over the past week I've been talking to a lot of Colombianas. I'm finding a widespread sampling. Some are barrio rats, some are upper middle class. I've talked with women from several cities as well.

I'm not seeing desperation. I ask each one how the quarantine is going and I'm not getting panicked answers. I even flat out offered to give 1 girl money to help buy groceries, no strings attached, and she turned it down. They do seem to be getting a little stir crazy. They want to get out to dance and party. But starvation and panic don't seem to be anywhere near.

On the upside, got a girl who wants me to come to Cartagena and visit the islands with her, a girl in Armenia who wants to cook for me, 1 in Bogota who wants to go clubbing, and 2 in Medellin who want to take me to their favorite restaurants.

I believe Colombia isn't about to collapse.[/QUOTE]Soi assuming some resumption in travel from the US in July, what would you imagine the situation MIGHT be?

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2443907]
I'm not seeing desperation. I ask each one how the quarantine is going and I'm not getting panicked answers. I even flat out offered to give 1 girl money to help buy groceries, no strings attached, and she turned it down. They do seem to be getting a little stir crazy. They want to get out to dance and party. But starvation and panic don't seem to be anywhere near.

I believe Colombia isn't about to collapse.[/QUOTE]That tells me a lot about the women you see in comparison to the ones I do. In one family of a woman I see, both her parents are out of work due to the corona virus, and she is a student. She has been the most desperate. In Bogota, a three income household went to a one income household given that my chica is the only one with an essential job, a nanny. She shot me video of the streets of Bogota, and they were empty. It looked like something out of a Batman movie.

Another has parents who run a clothing store, and they are out of work now. Another, and she was the only income producer in her family, lost her job at a call center.

The single ones I see, who seem to be in school or have work, have low budgets and seem to get by, but even they were complaining as food prices apparently have gone through the roof. As others have attested to, the working girls are still working, the girls who do video chats are still videoing, but the normal people are suffering as they are out of work and their expenses are higher.

I do not know about collapsing but stretched thin? For damned sure!!

President Duque is on top of the situation. Yesterday he announced a suspension of utilities payments for anybody in stratas 1 -3 and reduced minimum payments for strata 4. Subsidy cash payments continue. In Antioquia, the governor and the mayor of Medellin formed an alliance with the moradores who run the marginal comunas like Paris, Manrique, etc. These guys are basically gang leaders, the same who were in trouble a few years ago for organizing auctions for neighborhood virgins. Politics makes for strange bedfellows. Anyway, their role is to assist the police controlling movements in the barrios to prevent looting or larger demonstrations. The food handouts are continuing but there have been problems with some of the trucks getting looted. Unfortunately, there are favela like barrios in Bogota and Medellin that don't have access to utilities or government benefits.

What is happening here is understandable. The growing protests in the United States confuse me. As usual, the fringe reactionary element are conflating the quarantine with an erosion of gun rights, the peril of immigrant hordes, and a justification for white supremacist violence.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2443993]I don't know if your aware of this, but on Thursday residents in parts of Bogota gathered to demand authorities provide aid as a result of of the restrictive measures along with roadblocks in parts of Bogota, and security forces deployed tear gas to disperse crowds although no injuries had been reported as of Thursday night.

I have a hard time imagining how the Strata 1 and 2 people are able to survive in Colombia right now, and if things don't get better soon, there will be an uptick in protests, violence, etc. This is just my opinion, and I hope this doesn't happen. Hopefully Colombia will come out of the Pandemic soon and less scarred than other Countries.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2443993]I don't know if your aware of this, but on Thursday residents in parts of Bogota gathered to demand authorities provide aid as a result of of the restrictive measures along with roadblocks in parts of Bogota, and security forces deployed tear gas to disperse crowds although no injuries had been reported as of Thursday night.

I have a hard time imagining how the Strata 1 and 2 people are able to survive in Colombia right now, and if things don't get better soon, there will be an uptick in protests, violence, etc. This is just my opinion, and I hope this doesn't happen. Hopefully Colombia will come out of the Pandemic soon and less scarred than other Countries.[/QUOTE]The combination of economic loss plus general stir-craziness from social distancing will cause civil unrest in many parts of the World, including Colombia.

Keep in mind this is only the first wave. The Spanish flu came in three waves. We're expecting a second wave once this one ends.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2443876]I am not talking about information. I am talking about a public opinion that is growing.

And I have said repeatedly that I would have done exactly as they have said and done.

As the poster pointed out (not me but I agree with it), the number of expected dead per the experts you are talking about has gone from millions to.

60,000. That is a fact.

I don't know why you are giving me a hard time about this.[/QUOTE]I only mean to disagree with you, Not to just give you a hard time. I apologize if I am too harsh when I disagree with you. If I disagree with any info you post, I will try to respectfully disagree in the future.

[QUOTE=Combo;2444067]The combination of economic loss plus general stir-craziness from social distancing will cause civil unrest in many parts of the World, including Colombia.[/QUOTE]Yep, including the good ole USA, their was a protest today on Main Street in Huntington Beach, California over all of this and it's happening in other States as well.

Stanford University just did research on the number of Covin-19 infections in Santa Clara County, CA. The research estimates between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. If the rest of the country is anywhere close to that much under counting, the virus is much more contagious than currently believed, and also much less deadly as a percentage of infections.

[URL]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1[/URL]

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2444099]Stanford University just did research on the number of Covin-19 infections in Santa Clara County, CA. The research estimates between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. If the rest of the country is anywhere close to that much under counting, the virus is much more contagious than currently believed, and also much less deadly as a percentage of infections.

[URL]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1[/URL][/QUOTE]Well since a lot of people that have it are asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms, you'd have to think there's way more people infected than confirmed cases. A good part of the world's population, especially in densely populated urban areas, may have already come in contact with it.

Just conjecture on my part. I haven't studied this subject like some of you have.

[QUOTE=Combo;2444103]...Just conjecture on my part...[/QUOTE]You're not the only person who has made that conjecture. California had the first reported infections in the US, and yet its death rate is 1/20th that of New York, something that is difficult to explain by social distancing alone. The conjecture is that California was infected much earlier, like in November or December, and that a substatantial percentage of the population has already had and survived the disease. This study suggests that the number is only around 2% to 5%. I'm guessing that eventual serological studies will show a much higher level of previous infections.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2444108]You're not the only person who has made that conjecture. California had the first reported infections in the US, and yet its death rate is 1/20th that of New York, something that is difficult to explain by social distancing alone. The conjecture is that California was infected much earlier, like in November or December, and that a substatantial percentage of the population has already had and survived the disease. This study suggests that the number is only around 2% to 5%. I'm guessing that eventual serological studies will show a much higher level of previous infections.[/QUOTE]Are you saying it ran its course and no one noticed? Because that's unlikely. Look at Italy, France, Spain, New York State, etc.

Both Italy and France have excellent health care. Why did then end up with so many deaths?

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444118]Are you saying it ran its course and no one noticed? Because that's unlikely. Look at Italy, France, Spain, New York State, etc.

Both Italy and France have excellent health care. Why did then end up with so many deaths?[/QUOTE]No, not saying it's run it's course. That won't happen until approx 100% of humans have had it. Many factors probably affect infectivity and death rates: social isolation, housing density, smoking, age, mixing of generations in housing, use of public transportation, use of elevators, church attendance, hours of UV light, atmospheric moisture and temperature, I'm saying 1) this probably isn't the zombie apocalypse plague 2) California may have had it for a while. Many have had mild symptoms, and many more may have died, but have had their deaths attributed to something else. I'm guessing, apart from nursing homes, prisons, homeless camps, etc, it won't be very bad here. 3) the disease is probably much, much less deadly than earlier estimates predicted. 4) barring the development of a great vaccine, there is no "winning" against this disease. It is not going away. 5) this is an RNA virus and therefore more mutagenic. There will probably be no single vaccine against it unlike smallpox or polio it's one of the reasons we don't have vaccines against the common cold. Every year it's different. 6) even if you develop antibodies to this virus, you probably won't be immune to next year's variant.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2443992]I don't know what is your exact definition of "zero social distancing". There are plenty of examples that the whole family got infected from one member. A family is closer to zero social distancing than an aircraft carrier.

I also have question like are the sick sailors allowed to interact with others like usual.[/QUOTE]The problem on any military ship is that berthing (sleeping areas) are crowded together. The typical arrangement is 3 stacked bunks, all separated by a 30" wide passage. When you sleep, there are a minimum of 11 others sleeping within 6 feet. Also eating, in close quarters.

Sick sailors can he isolated in sick bay, but there's limited space.

The problem with an entire family being infected is it's too small of a group for any statistical relevance. An aircraft carrier is a small city.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2444108]You're not the only person who has made that conjecture. California had the first reported infections in the US, and yet its death rate is 1/20th that of New York, something that is difficult to explain by social distancing alone. The conjecture is that California was infected much earlier, like in November or December, and that a substatantial percentage of the population has already had and survived the disease. This study suggests that the number is only around 2% to 5%. I'm guessing that eventual serological studies will show a much higher level of previous infections.[/QUOTE]I guess one can infer if New York had acted early like California, the situation would be much better.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2444022]That tells me a lot about the women you see in comparison to the ones I do. In one family of a woman I see, both her parents are out of work due to the corona virus, and she is a student. She has been the most desperate. In Bogota, a three income household went to a one income household given that my chica is the only one with an essential job, a nanny. She shot me video of the streets of Bogota, and they were empty. It looked like something out of a Batman movie.

Another has parents who run a clothing store, and they are out of work now. Another, and she was the only income producer in her family, lost her job at a call center.

The single ones I see, who seem to be in school or have work, have low budgets and seem to get by, but even they were complaining as food prices apparently have gone through the roof. As others have attested to, the working girls are still working, the girls who do video chats are still videoing, but the normal people are suffering as they are out of work and their expenses are higher.

I do not know about collapsing but stretched thin? For damned sure!![/QUOTE]Stretched thin? Absolutely. The thing a lot of people can't relate to is that the poor people live every day stretched thin. They look at their 401 k diving, or their portfolio shrinking and they can't imagine how hard times hit the poor folks. Meanwhile, in the slums it's business as usual.

I've seen lots of reports of price gouging, but I'm guessing it's happening in estrato 4, 5 and 6 areas. A shopkeeper charging 50 k for a 3 k bag of rice will soon have a new job as fertilizer, in an estrato 2 neighborhood.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444118]Both Italy and France have excellent health care. Why did then end up with so many deaths?[/QUOTE]A contributing factor in Italy is probably the age of the population there. 71.3% of those who became infected were over 50. 79.7% of the deaths were 70 and over.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2444108]You're not the only person who has made that conjecture. California had the first reported infections in the US, and yet its death rate is 1/20th that of New York, something that is difficult to explain by social distancing alone. The conjecture is that California was infected much earlier, like in November or December, and that a substatantial percentage of the population has already had and survived the disease. This study suggests that the number is only around 2% to 5%. I'm guessing that eventual serological studies will show a much higher level of previous infections.[/QUOTE]What were the pneumonia numbers like for November and December? If it ran through California during that period there should have been a corresponding spike in pneumonia cases and deaths.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2444135]I guess one can infer if New York had acted early like California, the situation would be much better.[/QUOTE]New York went into lock down (shelter in place) one day after California. As someone else noted, it could be caused by the mass transit system in New York.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2444138]
I've seen lots of reports of price gouging, but I'm guessing it's happening in estrato 4, 5 and 6 areas. A shopkeeper charging 50 k for a 3 k bag of rice will soon have a new job as fertilizer, in an estrato 2 neighborhood.[/QUOTE]30 eggs went from 7000 COP to 14,000 COP from before to after the lockdown as an example. It is so little for us but so much for them.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2444146]New York went into lock down (shelter in place) one day after California. As someone else noted, it could be caused by the mass transit system in New York.[/QUOTE]California already shutdown bars before the lock down you mentioned. When did New York do that? You probably can find announcements timeline on twitter.

California shelter in place is a legal order that can be and is enforced by police. People who violate it can be put in prison. Is that the case for New York?

Many other large cities have mass transit system. This is just a guess. It has not been proven. I don't disagree or agree this makes NYC special or unique.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2444147]30 eggs went from 7000 COP to 14,000 COP from before to after the lockdown as an example. It is so little for us but so much for them.[/QUOTE]Actually, eggs and basic food has gone up a bit here downtown in Santa Fe area. And take out food is a bit more because of containers.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2444132]Many factors probably affect infectivity and death rates: social isolation, housing density, smoking, age, mixing of generations in housing, use of public transportation, use of elevators, church attendance, hours of UV light, atmospheric moisture and temperature[/QUOTE]Good point. Up until this point I paid little attention to things like UV light. I can't think of a warm and sunny place where the death rate is high. Can you? I'm going to assume the high number of deaths in Spain and France were not in the south like Italy.

BTW, Canada is doing mostly well and its not a warm place. Scandinavia as well.

I would not put it past NY to be inflating numbers here for some political / financial / other reasons; It's been made very clear that Cuomo hates Trump; That being said, the density of the elderly in NY comparative to CA is significant. Also, even pre-COVID. Have you been to NY? The level of hygiene there is almost 3rd world in some parts of Manhattan. I remember my first trip there as a kid, and the stink of that place is one of my biggest memories.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444225]Good point. Up until this point I paid little attention to things like UV light. I can't think of a warm and sunny place where the death rate is high...[/QUOTE]Unfortunately, spoiling my warm, sunny idea is Guayaquil, which is right on the equator. I read they have bodies laying on the streets there;.

[QUOTE=ShooBree;2443793]In my country we live life pretty much as normal except from no big events and no discos / bars. No lockdown needed.[/QUOTE]You country (Sweden) is doing worse than your neighbors.

Sweden: 136 deaths per million.

Denmark: 58.

Norway: 30.

Finland: 15.

A lot of Swedes take individualism to the extreme and get easily offended when someone has other views.

[QUOTE=YyzTravel;2444230]I would not put it past NY to be inflating numbers here for some political / financial / other reasons; It's been made very clear that Cuomo hates Trump; That being said, the density of the elderly in NY comparative to CA is significant. Also, even pre-COVID. Have you been to NY? The level of hygiene there is almost 3rd world in some parts of Manhattan. I remember my first trip there as a kid, and the stink of that place is one of my biggest memories.[/QUOTE]NY inflating numbers for political reasons? Give your head a shake. Trump is probably happy to see high numbers in any Democrat state, much more likely for him to want to inflate numbers.

But this is actually way beyond politics. It is a virus, various places have done, are doing, various things. I really don't think anyone is intentionally messing with numbers in the USA. But as was / is the case with home deaths, authorities and healthcare workers are busy with trying to keep people alive. Testing bodies for whether they really died of Covid-19 is not the number one priority.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2444263]I really don't think anyone is intentionally messing with numbers in the USA. But as was / is the case with home deaths, authorities and healthcare workers are busy with trying to keep people alive. Testing bodies for whether they really died of Covid-19 is not the number one priority.[/QUOTE]Then why add them to the numbers? NYs count added in thousands of presumed deaths in one day. I agree, testing corpses does not seem like a priority. But assuming all deaths at home are caused by COVID is absolutely messing with the numbers. Political? Maybe. But clearly, for some reason, there is a desire to inflate the numbers.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2444146]New York went into lock down (shelter in place) one day after California. As someone else noted, it could be caused by the mass transit system in New York.[/QUOTE]Great point. Mass public transit is an ideal form for spreading a very contagious virus. In NYC, a large % of the populace uses mass transit. California is on the opposite end of the spectrum.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2444263]NY inflating numbers for political reasons? Give your head a shake. Trump is probably happy to see high numbers in any Democrat state, much more likely for him to want to inflate numbers.

But this is actually way beyond politics. It is a virus, various places have done, are doing, various things. I really don't think anyone is intentionally messing with numbers in the USA. But as was / is the case with home deaths, authorities and healthcare workers are busy with trying to keep people alive. Testing bodies for whether they really died of Covid-19 is not the number one priority.[/QUOTE]I'm guessing he's talking about inflating numbers to get more federal aid.

Last Tuesday Minorista was closed due to a break-out (brote in Spanish) of COVID 19. Today the mayor reported that thru testing they have identified 28 people as positive for COVID 19. My bet is that the true numbers are much higher and is very alarming in that a lot of the poorer Colombians shop there because of the lower prices for food and products. And a lot of these Colombians live in barrios across town with whole families including children to grandparents in the same household. It's frightful to think how bad things might really be with the lack of testing not only in Colombia but in the USA for the time being.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2444258]Unfortunately, spoiling my warm, sunny idea is Guayaquil, which is right on the equator. I read they have bodies laying on the streets there;.[/QUOTE]Yes.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rw7HjrXLe4U[/URL]

So I just decided to google it to find the relevant dates. California lockdown is a gradual process so you can't make direct comparison. I hope you see the difference when you view it in context.

California March 15
[URL]https://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article241213696.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.ktvu.com/news/california-gov-newsom-calls-for-home-isolation-for-all-seniors-bars-to-close-restaurants-to-limit-capacity[/URL]

March 16th, 19th

[URL]https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php[/URL]

[URL]https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20200323-covid-19-an-overview-of-governor-newsoms-statewide-shelter-in-place-order[/URL]



New York, whatever I found before this date are political power struggle

[URL]https://www.pillsburylaw.com/en/news-and-insights/new-york-covid-19-nonessential.html[/URL]
[QUOTE]New York States Governor Cuomo has implemented extraordinary measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19, closing all nonessential businesses effective Sunday, March 22, 2020, at 8 p.m.[/QUOTE]



Also this comment from the article that I think provide another hint to the problem. I hope I am quoting the text in context correctly. You should read the whole article

[URL]https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/new-york-to-shut-down-as-it-becomes-next-virus-hot-spot[/URL]
[QUOTE]
But with the danger an invisible virus instead of billowing smoke or blowing snow, New Yorkers were still gathering in large groups in parks, playing basketball or having block parties. Similar scenes played out around the country.

Cuomo said he was stunned and offended as he toured the city Saturday and gave local officials a day to figure out a plan whether it be closing parks, closing playgrounds or opening streets, typically teeming with traffic but now quiet, only to pedestrians.

Its insensitive. Its arrogant. Its self-destructive. Its disrespectful to other people, Cuomo said. It has to stop and it has to stop now.
[/QUOTE]

You maybe able to find something similar in California but I have not looked.

I am reading the very thoughtful debate here and want provide my own input. I stop myself from making them every time though. Because does it matter, does this covid-19 matter fundamentally? I know many (have and) will die in the short-term. All of us here are dead anyways in the long-term. How does this matter then? Did Bubonic plague, Spanish Flue, Small Pox force any fundamental societal change? I don't know. Science and progress seem painfully slow and incremental. Maybe this blip will be different. I hope someone of the many intelligent folks here can enlighten.

[QUOTE=Combo;2444278]Great point. Mass public transit is an ideal form for spreading a very contagious virus. In NYC, a large % of the populace uses mass transit. California is on the opposite end of the spectrum.

I'm guessing he's talking about inflating numbers to get more federal aid.[/QUOTE]There is an article about it.

[URL]https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qjdy33/its-easy-but-wrong-to-blame-the-subway-for-the-coronavirus-pandemic[/URL]

You should read the whole thing. New York's system is large so it is intuitive to think that way but there are many large cities around the world that carry billions more passengers a year.

[QUOTE]
The second claim overlays the subway map on a map of the city showing infection rates by zip code, with a zoomed in map specifically of the 7 and M/R lines in Manhattan and Queens. The implication of the paper is that once these maps are superimposed one on top of the other, the evidence is obvious and overwhelming that the subway is the culprit because various hotspots overlap with certain subway lines.

But it never provides any actual statistical evidence to back this up.
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]This map shows clumps and clusters, especially in the outer boroughs, but bears no resemblance to a subway map. Neighborhoods in Staten Island, the north Bronx, eastern Queens, and the Rockaways have high infection rates, but those are areas where the subway is either lightly used compared to the rest of the city or non-existent.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]In fact, as one looks at the infection rate map, its easier to eyeball an inverse correlation with the subway map. All subway lines (except for the G and Staten Island Railway) converge in Manhattan, but [B]Manhattan has the lowest infection rates[/B] of any borough.[/QUOTE]

Explain exactly what it means when you say "and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" because from the perspective of everyone I talk to on a daily basis who are pretty knowledgeable about these kinds of things. What you are saying when you say " we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" is that we are going to have to let thousands of people die so that the economy starts growing again? Thousands of preventable deaths if fact. At what point in history has any people decided that thousands of people who are not soldiers were going to die to improve the quality of my life?

You may say that I am exaggerating. Maybe even being over dramatic, But then there are all those body bags again -.

Ever hear of death panels? Health care is rationed in countries with socialized medicine IE, Europe everyday, many people die, its not a design flaw, its by design.

[URL]http://conversableeconomist.********.com/2018/06/whats-value-of-qaly.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.cebm.net/2014/03/number-needed-to-treat-nnt/[/URL] insurance companies make these decisions all the time, as do drug companies, politicians et al.

[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/opinion/coronavirus-hospital-shortage.html[/URL]

BTW you voted for John McCain? That is not something I would be bragging about LMAO.

In the spirit of fairness and full disclosure I will admit my utter shame in voting for #43 I won't even type that turds name, I'm so ashamed.

TRUMP FOR LIFE.

BTW in the USA these days, just about everyone that has an opinion about anything, has a political slant, including physicians and "scientists".

Show me a scientist that doesn't vote or have strong political opinions.

Everyone is overly interested in what's best for them, out of control self-interest.

Many if not most scientists are democrats, I can cite political science articles if anyone wants.

There are reasons for it, but as you probably can guess, the reasons are mostly in their best self-interest for a variety of reasons.

And yes the scientific community has been tainted by bias, ala Koch brothers sponsored research et al.

Look at the media, its mostly "fake news" I mean pro-globalist nonsense.

Look at most of academia, its has been polluted with money from China.

Sadly yes many times even scientists have an agenda, is it political? LOL probably.

Partisanship is out of control, I won't say I like this but the US supreme court is 5-4 GOP.

For the 1st time in my life, and the democrats are screaming bloody murder that now the court is biased and destroying the court.

But when the court was 5-4 in their favor since FDR (which I respect) stacked the court in their favor for the last 75 yrs that was OK.

When it pushed thru bullshit ruling after bullshit ruling onto the unhappy populace for the last 75 yrs.

The court wasn't biased then LMAO no of course not.

[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/coronavirus-america-future.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=JanQuadVincent;2444319]I am reading the very thoughtful debate here and want provide my own input. I stop myself from making them every time though. Because does it matter, does this covid-19 matter fundamentally? I know many (have and) will die in the short-term. All of us here are dead anyways in the long-term. How does this matter then? Did Bubonic plague, Spanish Flue, Small Pox force any fundamental societal change? I don't know. Science and progress seem painfully slow and incremental. Maybe this blip will be different. I hope someone of the many intelligent folks here can enlighten.[/QUOTE]Yes its clearly a blip. Clearly, the Spanish Flu (which killed between 75 million and 100 million because governments were slow to act), the Bubonic plague, and all these events are just blips. Book your flights to Colombia in July. It's all just a blip. People are overreacting.

EDIT:

OK enough with my sarcasm. Since February 15th, 38,779 people have died in the US and are confirmed cases of COVID-19. It's the leading killer of people in the US. Public enemy number 1. And this is WITH social distancing and all the other measures. Does that bring some perspective?

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444355]Yes its clearly a blip. Clearly, the Spanish Flu (which killed between 75 million and 100 million because governments were slow to act), the Bubonic plague, and all these events are just blips. Book your flights to Colombia in July. It's all just a blip. People are overreacting.[/QUOTE]In the grand scheme of things everything's just a blip. In the 4 billion or so years the World has existed, the last millennium is a blip. So using OP's logic, nothing matters.

[QUOTE=CzarNicholas;2444325]Explain exactly what it means when you say "and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" because from the perspective of everyone I talk to on a daily basis who are pretty knowledgeable about these kinds of things. What you are saying when you say " we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" is that we are going to have to let thousands of people die so that the economy starts growing again? Thousands of preventable deaths if fact. At what point in history has any people decided that thousands of people who are not soldiers were going to die to improve the quality of my life?

You may say that I am exaggerating. Maybe even being over dramatic, But then there are all those body bags again -.[/QUOTE]I don't think you are exaggerating at all. But I do think you are ignoring or at least understating the impact of an unprecedented economic collapse. Because, sadly, there is death in any path we choose. Everyone uses the word "economy". It dehumanizes the impact. Well, a shuttered economy equates to starvation. To homelessness. To tens of millions of people losing access to affordable healthcare. And what does malnourishment and poor healthcare lead to? Death and despair.

Maybe I am being dramatic too. But I think that is a very real and more likely outcome the longer the shutdown continues. And I appreciate the death panel argument. But are we not doing the same thing by somewhat arbitrarily claiming various groups as non-essential and banishing them from earning a living?

Yes, everyone has a view. I agree, there's no such thing as a "neutral" source.

As far as the "reaction being worse than the virus itself," I'll give that a shot. Milions of small business around the World (and some large ones also) will go under from the lockdowns being imposed. Many people will lose not only an income, but something they have worked for all their lives. This will cause a lot of genuine misery and sometimes even death, as suicide will be the choice of some. I would also expect the emotional pain / loneliness of social isolation to cause some to take their lives.

If you say that governments can make these people economically "whole" (IMO feasible for some large business, but not really for most small businesses), there is a cost to that also as countries around the World go more into debt and / or money creation, which ultimately could cause serious problems.

Philosphically there's always some tradeoff between progress / wellbeing for society (which in itself may ultimately save some lives) and a certain amount of deaths. Right now, the people of the World are between a rock and a hard place. I don't know the ideal solution. Car accidents kill thousands per year (plus the damage the pollution does). But being able to drive a car is a really nice thing for most people. We make that choice.

[QUOTE=CzarNicholas;2444325]Explain exactly what it means when you say "and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" because from the perspective of everyone I talk to on a daily basis who are pretty knowledgeable about these kinds of things. What you are saying when you say " we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" is that we are going to have to let thousands of people die so that the economy starts growing again? Thousands of preventable deaths if fact. At what point in history has any people decided that thousands of people who are not soldiers were going to die to improve the quality of my life?

You may say that I am exaggerating. Maybe even being over dramatic, But then there are all those body bags again -.

Ever hear of death panels? Health care is rationed in countries with socialized medicine IE, Europe everyday, many people die, its not a design flaw, its by design.

[URL]http://conversableeconomist.********.com/2018/06/whats-value-of-qaly.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.cebm.net/2014/03/number-needed-to-treat-nnt/[/URL] insurance companies make these decisions all the time, as do drug companies, politicians et al.

[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/opinion/coronavirus-hospital-shortage.html[/URL]

BTW you voted for John McCain? That is not something I would be bragging about LMAO.

In the spirit of fairness and full disclosure I will admit my utter shame in voting for #43 I won't even type that turds name, I'm so ashamed.

TRUMP FOR LIFE.

BTW in the USA these days, just about everyone that has an opinion about anything, has a political slant, including physicians and "scientists".

Show me a scientist that doesn't vote or have strong political opinions.

Everyone is overly interested in what's best for them, out of control self-interest.

Many if not most scientists are democrats, I can cite political science articles if anyone wants.

There are reasons for it, but as you probably can guess, the reasons are mostly in their best self-interest for a variety of reasons.

And yes the scientific community has been tainted by bias, ala Koch brothers sponsored research et al.

Look at the media, its mostly "fake news" I mean pro-globalist nonsense.

Look at most of academia, its has been polluted with money from China.

Sadly yes many times even scientists have an agenda, is it political? LOL probably.

Partisanship is out of control, I won't say I like this but the US supreme court is 5-4 GOP.

For the 1st time in my life, and the democrats are screaming bloody murder that now the court is biased and destroying the court.

But when the court was 5-4 in their favor since FDR (which I respect) stacked the court in their favor for the last 75 yrs that was OK.

When it pushed thru bullshit ruling after bullshit ruling onto the unhappy populace for the last 75 yrs.

The court wasn't biased then LMAO no of course not.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=CzarNicholas;2444325]... What you are saying when you say " we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" is that we are going to have to let thousands of people die so that the economy starts growing again? Thousands of preventable deaths if fact. At what point in history has any people decided that thousands of people who are not soldiers were going to die to improve the quality of my life? ...[/QUOTE]We already do that. Would you be okay with everyone giving up their private automobile and commute only with public transportation? Deaths due to automobile accidents are approximately 40,000 each year in the US. Also, how about limiting what food you can buy? Many people die because of the effects on their bodies of their selection of food. Average life expectancy has gone down in the US in the last few years. I think that is primarily due to unhealthy eating habits. Those are just a couple of examples of risks we accept for the improvement of quality of life. There are many other problems that arise when people don't have any means to get money to buy the necessities of life. The government checks can't continue if the government is not receiving any money. Well, the checks can continue, but then our monetary units would be like those of Venezuela and Iran.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2444362]Deaths due to automobile accidents are approximately 40,000 each year in the US.[/QUOTE]We're already at 38 k deaths in two months with the lock down. Do you see how you're wrong? This isn't the flu. This isn't automobile accidents. Can you accept that we have a deadly pandemic spreading that is killing a lot of people very quickly despite our best efforts?

[QUOTE=Dcrist0527;2444273]Then why add them to the numbers? NYs count added in thousands of presumed deaths in one day. I agree, testing corpses does not seem like a priority. But assuming all deaths at home are caused by COVID is absolutely messing with the numbers. Political? Maybe. But clearly, for some reason, there is a desire to inflate the numbers.[/QUOTE]The "at home" deaths attributed to Covid-19 were just catch-up to what was known. Not all home deaths were attributed to Covid. Many are due to other causes. However the when there are 3 or 4 times the numbers as compared to the same period other years something is clearly different. And when these people are reported to have Covid symptoms. Chances are they are related deaths.

Same when China updated their numbers yesterday. If anything there is a great desire in the US to minimize numbers. People will lose their jobs if the numbers are high.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444355]Yes its clearly a blip. Clearly, the Spanish Flu (which killed between 75 million and 100 million because governments were slow to act), the Bubonic plague, and all these events are just blips. Book your flights to Colombia in July. It's all just a blip. People are overreacting.

EDIT:

OK enough with my sarcasm. Since February 15th, 38,779 people have died in the US and are confirmed cases of COVID-19. It's the leading killer of people in the US. Public enemy number 1. And this is WITH social distancing and all the other measures. Does that bring some perspective?[/QUOTE]38 K. 100 million. Yes, it adds a lot of perspective.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2444365]The "at home" deaths attributed to Covid-19 were just catch-up to what was known. Not all home deaths were attributed to Covid. Many are due to other causes. However the when there are 3 or 4 times the numbers as compared to the same period other years something is clearly different. And when these people are reported to have Covid symptoms. Chances are they are related deaths.

Same when China updated their numbers yesterday. If anything there is a great desire in the US to minimize numbers. People will lose their jobs if the numbers are high.[/QUOTE]Don't get me wrong, though I have absolutely no independent knowledge, I suspect many are from Covid. My point is it makes the numbers less accurate. And adding them in aids in alarming.

Do people in the US want the numbers higher or lower? You'll see people in both camps. But what I have a better appreciation for is the power of fear. And I'm not saying it is unfounded. But there is a percentage of the population that is fearful beyond what is rational. I don't say that critically, but more out of concern. Sadly, I believe there are people that will likely not leave their house for years on end. I work with a few. And I really do not believe it is just talk. We have a few on this board that are at that point, though I hope it is just talk in their case. And that, more than any other reason, is why I detest the fear merchants.

So many "experts" are called on for spin. Some are called on to declare human extinction. And some are called on to pretend nothing is wrong. Watch these so called experts. Very few moderate their tone or message.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444363]We're already at 38 k deaths in two months with the lock down. Do you see how you're wrong? This isn't the flu. This isn't automobile accidents. Can you accept that we have a deadly pandemic spreading that is killing a lot of people very quickly despite our best efforts?[/QUOTE]Why are you so dense? I was not comparing any numbers. I gave examples of things we do that improve our quality of life and also cause death. The information I posted is not wrong.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2444372]Why are you so dense? I was not comparing any numbers. I gave examples of things we do that improve our quality of life and also cause death. The information I posted is not wrong.[/QUOTE]Right. Let's let more people die to improve the quality of our lives. If we end the lock down prematurely how do you think this will play out? Would you like 100 k deaths a month? Would that be too much?

Accept reality.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444363]...Can you accept that we have a deadly pandemic spreading that is killing a lot of people very quickly despite our best efforts?[/QUOTE]I acccept that it is a pandemic, but not that it is particularly deadly.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2444382]I acccept that it is a pandemic, but not that it is particularly deadly.[/QUOTE]Wait for the second wave. Just wait. 1919 was the deadliest year in modern history. Not 1918. More people died from the Spanish flu in 1919 than combined during WWI and WWII.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444355]Yes its clearly a blip. Clearly, the Spanish Flu (which killed between 75 million and 100 million because governments were slow to act), the Bubonic plague, and all these events are just blips. Book your flights to Colombia in July. It's all just a blip. People are overreacting.

EDIT:

OK enough with my sarcasm. Since February 15th, 38,779 people have died in the US and are confirmed cases of COVID-19. It's the leading killer of people in the US. Public enemy number 1. And this is WITH social distancing and all the other measures. Does that bring some perspective?[/QUOTE]Is not dying the purpose of living? Could very well be the basis of all the games we play. I don't know. Still, people do go to die in battles, play with danger as hobby or profession. Put their lives on the line. Sacrifice. I want to believe there is more to a person than just being alive.

Massachusetts General Hospital physicians ran a pilot study on 200 random people on the street in Chelsea, MA. Of 200 people tested, 64 tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19. [URL]https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/[/URL].

In Ohio, officials tested 152 inmates at the Marion Correctional Institution, 39 percent of them tested positive without showing symptoms.

It is possible herd immunity is having an effect on flattening the curve.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2444391]Massachusetts General Hospital physicians ran a pilot study on 200 random people on the street in Chelsea, MA. Of 200 people tested, 64 tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19. [URL]https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/[/URL].

In Ohio, officials tested 152 inmates at the Marion Correctional Institution, 39 percent of them tested positive without showing symptoms.

It is possible herd immunity is having an effect on flattening the curve.[/QUOTE]Let's hope so.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2444391]Massachusetts General Hospital physicians ran a pilot study on 200 random people on the street in Chelsea, MA. Of 200 people tested, 64 tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19. [URL]https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/[/URL].

In Ohio, officials tested 152 inmates at the Marion Correctional Institution, 39 percent of them tested positive without showing symptoms.

It is possible herd immunity is having an effect on flattening the curve.[/QUOTE]No. The R0 is 2. 2. 39 percent won't give you herd immunity. You need a minimum of 60%.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444377]Right. Let's let more people die to improve the quality of our lives. If we end the lock down prematurely how do you think this will play out? Would you like 100 k deaths a month? Would that be too much?

Accept reality.[/QUOTE]Just in the US 22 million lost their jobs in four weeks! How do you think that will work out? How many should be unemployed? 80 percent?

How many small businesses owners should go belly up? 100 percent?

[blue][Deleted by Admin][/blue]

The virus isn't mortal enough to destroy the lives for tens of millions. The lockdowns are destroying people's lives.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444396]No. The R0 is 2. 2. 39 percent won't give you herd immunity. You need a minimum of 60%.[/QUOTE]Are you posting just to raise your number of posts? I don't think you have ever posted anything that has been beneficial to this community. You can't flip a switch and have herd immunity. It is developed starting at zero.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444396]No. The R0 is 2. 2...[/QUOTE]A made up number. We don't know.

Virus Vaccine May Be Ready for Mass Production By Autumn, Oxford Professor Says.

[URL]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/oxford-vaccine-veteran-lays-out-coronavirus-immunization-plans[/URL]

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2444385]Wait for the second wave. Just wait. 1919 was the deadliest year in modern history. Not 1918. More people died from the Spanish flu in 1919 than combined during WWI and WWII.[/QUOTE]I predict the hysteria over a second wave will paralyze us for months. First, no one is certain this is seasonal. No one can be certain of a second wave. And God knows their predictions for the first wave were off by a mere 400%. Also, comparing this virus to a virus nearly 100 years ago is just foolish in my mind. Just the advances in medication alone make that an illogical comparison.

This is just another example of alarmism. Do I know it won't happen? Of course not. But I'm not buying armageddon is coming either, based on their flawed predictions of the last month.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2444418]Virus Vaccine May Be Ready for Mass Production By Autumn, Oxford Professor Says.

[URL]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/oxford-vaccine-veteran-lays-out-coronavirus-immunization-plans[/URL][/QUOTE]I am no expert on clinical trials. But here's hoping these promising efforts do not have to worry about money. I would hope production would be ramped up even before final approval for the most promising vaccines. Yes, we'll undoubtedly waste untold millions. (Again, not educated to know the steps / process.) But a vaccine really is our only hope.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2444418]Virus Vaccine May Be Ready for Mass Production By Autumn, Oxford Professor Says.

[URL]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/oxford-vaccine-veteran-lays-out-coronavirus-immunization-plans[/URL][/QUOTE]I won't be first in line to try it.

[URL]https://communalnews.com/coronavirus-duque-announces-ten-commandments-of-intelligent-isolation/[/URL]

Colombian president allowed 10 commandments of Isolation:

First, he said that "children and youth should be at home at least until May 30. " The should not go to universities, nor schools, nor gardens, so that they do not become sources of distribution, he said.

The second, he said, is that "adults over 70 years of age, very judiciously, should also be kept at home until the end of May. " On the third aspect, the President noted that "people who have a background, which makes them vulnerable to the virus, should also stay home. ".

The fourth and fifth points are related to air transport. He said that the closure of the borders should be maintained, while on domestic flights, he advocated not opening them until an assessment is made when the emergency situation is over. With regard to the sixth aspect, the President reiterated that public events, discos and bars cannot be reopened.

It looks it will be at least June before Colombia re-opens.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2444410]Are you posting just to raise your number of posts? I don't think you have ever posted anything that has been beneficial to this community. [/QUOTE]Haha, sorry I have to take side here. YK has posted a lot of useful info on Cartagena. His advice on stock recently is also a good if you take the long view.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2444410]Are you posting just to raise your number of posts? I don't think you have ever posted anything that has been beneficial to this community. You can't flip a switch and have herd immunity. It is developed starting at zero.[/QUOTE]YippieKayay is like a resident Colombian expert. YOu must not have been reading the Colombian Forum for very long.

As I recently posted, I have lost coworkers to this damn virus, one I considered a friend. Neither of whom had were elderly nor had any serious health conditions, at least not that had been diagnosed, Its one thing to say that the economics is desperate and we may have to risk more people dying to keep others from starving to death. These are subjective but somewhat valid arguments.

I am just not in the mood to read nonchalant attitudes about people dying. Let alone if it almost sounds like you are encouraging it, If you do not have any respect for the people losing their lives I do not want to hear about it, You can post about that somewhere else, So I will be deleting these. If anyone has a problem with that they are welcome to go start their own blog.

If you are so inclined feel free to send me all the private messages cussing me out that you want but it will not be here in this blog.

I don't notice this blog has much to do with Colombia. I do find it a revealing window into preconceptions, pet peeves, phobias, and neuroses punctuated with links to statistics of uneven context. The occasional episodes of ad hominem attacks are disappointing but I expect that they will decrease with the return of access to regular sexual release.

It's unbelievable what is happening. The Federal Reserve is projecting over 42 million unemployed by June 2020. The coming worldwide depression will kill millions, maybe even billions, over a stupid virus. I tell you what, the powers that be know what's coming, and we are being conditioned to stay at home and starve, have you seen what is going on in the agricultural world? Dumping milk, dumping produce, meat products are being fazed out, farmers are being told to stop farming. I hope you like Soylent Green.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E&t=4s[/URL]

What are your primary sources of news and economic data?

[QUOTE=TyDown;2444538]It's unbelievable what is happening. The Federal Reserve is projecting over 42 million unemployed by June 2020. The coming worldwide depression will kill millions, maybe even billions, over a stupid virus. I tell you what, the powers that be know what's coming, and we are being conditioned to stay at home and starve, have you seen what is going on in the agricultural world? Dumping milk, dumping produce, meat products are being fazed out, farmers are being told to stop farming. I hope you like Soylent Green.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E&t=4s[/URL][/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2444423][URL]https://communalnews.com/coronavirus-duque-announces-ten-commandments-of-intelligent-isolation/[/URL]

Colombian president allowed 10 commandments of Isolation:

First, he said that "children and youth should be at home at least until May 30. " The should not go to universities, nor schools, nor gardens, so that they do not become sources of distribution, he said.

The second, he said, is that "adults over 70 years of age, very judiciously, should also be kept at home until the end of May. " On the third aspect, the President noted that "people who have a background, which makes them vulnerable to the virus, should also stay home. "..[/QUOTE]I'm thinking around the end of July. You've got Colombia to consider first. Duque appears to be holding firm, so probably easing back up to speed throughout June. Then there's the US to consider. I can see US restrictions mostly disappearing by the end of May, but whether or not other countries are going to allow in US passengers is another story. Then there are the stopovers, Panama for example. If you're switching planes in a place where things are still out of control, will Colombia let you in?

There will probably be an initial 14 day mandatory quarantine, but hopefully that will be removed before too long.

On another note, you and others may be right. Although it hasn't been peer-reviewed yet, and the scope is too narrow for statistical reliability, A Stanford University study found a higher rate of antibodies in the population than expected. Larger scale studies are either underway or planned.

It's not the Holy Grail. It potentially drops mortality rate down to only twice as high as the flu. However, it also demonstrates a much higher and quicker spread than the flu. So, it's (probably) less deadly than expected, but will infect more people, keeping the total number of deaths high.

We also don't yet know how effective those antibodies are against reinfection.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2444538]It's unbelievable what is happening. The Federal Reserve is projecting over 42 million unemployed by June 2020. The coming worldwide depression will kill millions, maybe even billions, over a stupid virus. I tell you what, the powers that be know what's coming, and we are being conditioned to stay at home and starve, have you seen what is going on in the agricultural world? Dumping milk, dumping produce, meat products are being fazed out, farmers are being told to stop farming. I hope you like Soylent Green.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E&t=4s[/URL][/QUOTE]That "stupid virus" is killing a lot of people. Was the Spanish Flu a stupid virus also?

I don't know what the best course of action is and I don't think anyone does. This is the epitome of "between a rock and a hard place.” Unless there’s a dramatic medical advance or herd immunity develops very quickly, the World is in for a rough going.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2444538]...over a stupid virus...[/QUOTE]Actually, a very clever virus. The purpose of CV is to survive and spread itself, which it is very, very good at doing.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2444423][URL]https://communalnews.com/coronavirus-duque-announces-ten-commandments-of-intelligent-isolation/[/URL]

It looks it will be at least June before Colombia re-opens.[/QUOTE]I highly doubt that Colombia will be opening up anytime soon, at least for International travel unless the airlines in concert with the Government instigate a COVID 19 test requirement either before boarding, like Emirates, or upon arrival in Japan and Singapore. I would be very surprised to see Colombia allowing anyone in the Country moving forward just based on a temperature check and self quarantine for two weeks upon arrival.

I also don't see Colombia testing passengers upon arrival, hence it will fall on the airlines to do so, and provide a certification acceptable to the Colombian government. That's of course if the airlines are still in business, and I am not sure if Avianca and / or COPA will still be around when it gets figured out. I don't know what measures the Colombia and Panama Governments are doing to help these carriers like the USA has done for it's carriers.

So lets say Colombia gets past the hurdle of getting people back into the Country, at this point, if they don't have the virus under control, who besides mongers are going want to return.

Unfortunately, and I have resigned myself that short of a vaccine, Colombia for me is going to be a "no go" which I am not happy about.

Maybe somebody has an alternative outlook or take on this.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2444563]Actually, a very clever virus. The purpose of CV is to survive and spread itself, which it is very, very good at doing.[/QUOTE]You're absolutely correct, the coronavirus has been around since the beginning of time, nothing new with here. The survival rate of people infected with Corona-19 is +99% . My point is, Why crash the Global economy? The common Flu is more dangerous. I'm calling bullshit on this one, there is something else going on that they are not telling us.

This explains a lot about what researchers are finding.

[URL]https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes[/URL]

[QUOTE=Combo;2444561]That "stupid virus" is killing a lot of people. Was the Spanish Flu a stupid virus also?

I don't know what the best course of action is and I don't think anyone does. This is the epitome of "between a rock and a hard place. Unless theres a dramatic medical advance or herd immunity develops very quickly, the World is in for a rough going.[/QUOTE]Of course neither is "Stupid" I'm just venting some frustration with this whole shit show. IMO there has been an huge over reaction to this virus, and the Media has been pouring gas on this frenzy since day one. Now that the global supply chains are getting shit stuffed, who knows where this is going to go.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2444575]You're absolutely correct, the coronavirus has been around since the beginning of time, nothing new with here. The survival rate of people infected with Corona-19 is +99% . My point is, Why crash the Global economy? The common Flu is more dangerous. I'm calling bullshit on this one, there is something else going on that they are not telling us.[/QUOTE]You are correct, in Texas we have had less then 400 deaths, and yes one is too many, but this in insanity. On average day in Texas we have 10-2 O murders, probably more. This does not count suicide or drug overdoses. We do not stop the economy for murders or overdose, which is a much bigger problem. Just makes no sense.

[QUOTE=AZNMonger;2444259]You country (Sweden) is doing worse than your neighbors.

Sweden: 136 deaths per million.

Denmark: 58.

Norway: 30.

Finland: 15.

A lot of Swedes take individualism to the extreme and get easily offended when someone has other views.[/QUOTE]Oh, so you are cherry-picking. Why are you stalking me and so obsessed by giving a inaccurate picture of things?

Belgium 490 deaths per million.

Netherlands 215.

Switzerland 156.

Sweden 150.

I don't even have to mention Italy (437), Spain (391) or France (302).

And that without any lockdown, it's called winning.

The problem with you is called Dunning-Kruger.

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2444540]What are your primary sources of news and economic data?[/QUOTE]The Federal Reserve meeting notes at 2:45 in this video - [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E[/URL].

To our perceptions and ways of understanding, they look like clever. However, virus, including Covid19, have no brain or consciousness. So they don't have purpose or intelligence. In contrast to bacteria, virus are not even organisms with life. Throughout centuries of evolutionary process, only the virus with a behavior that made them spread outlasted and survived.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2444563]Actually, a very clever virus. The purpose of CV is to survive and spread itself, which it is very, very good at doing.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2444550]I'm thinking around the end of July. You've got Colombia to consider first. Duque appears to be holding firm, so probably easing back up to speed throughout June. Then there's the US to consider. I can see US restrictions mostly disappearing by the end of May, but whether or not other countries are going to allow in US passengers is another story. Then there are the stopovers, Panama for example. If you're switching planes in a place where things are still out of control, will Colombia let you in?

There will probably be an initial 14 day mandatory quarantine, but hopefully that will be removed before too long.

On another note, you and others may be right. Although it hasn't been peer-reviewed yet, and the scope is too narrow for statistical reliability, A Stanford University study found a higher rate of antibodies in the population than expected. Larger scale studies are either underway or planned.

It's not the Holy Grail. It potentially drops mortality rate down to only twice as high as the flu. However, it also demonstrates a much higher and quicker spread than the flu. So, it's (probably) less deadly than expected, but will infect more people, keeping the total number of deaths high.

We also don't yet know how effective those antibodies are against reinfection.[/QUOTE]I agree with all of this in a few months we're going to know a lot more about this disease and the governments are going to issue guidelines. There is definitely a possibility that airlines will be doing testing if anything they will add that cost to your ticket but airlines want to get back running as soon as possible. My personal feeling is it travel maybe possible late July / August without any quarantine restrictions. If not that definitely by October.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2444575]You're absolutely correct, the coronavirus has been around since the beginning of time, nothing new with here. The survival rate of people infected with Corona-19 is +99% . My point is, Why crash the Global economy? The common Flu is more dangerous. I'm calling bullshit on this one, there is something else going on that they are not telling us.[/QUOTE]How can you believe the stuff you're reading. Common flu more dangerous? When did a flu double every few days (as little as 4 days) and kill up to 4% of the people it infected. And kill 40,000 people in about a month in one country. I'm calling bullshit on you.

Of course there have been many different coronaviruses. It's a family of viruses including the common cold. But this new one is a very bad one. And without the measures that have been taken the deaths would have been many many times greater.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2444550]

On another note, you and others may be right. Although it hasn't been peer-reviewed yet, and the scope is too narrow for statistical reliability, A Stanford University study found a higher rate of antibodies in the population than expected. Larger scale studies are either underway or planned.

It's not the Holy Grail. It potentially drops mortality rate down to only twice as high as the flu. However, it also demonstrates a much higher and quicker spread than the flu. So, it's (probably) less deadly than expected, but will infect more people, keeping the total number of deaths high.

We also don't yet know how effective those antibodies are against reinfection.[/QUOTE]I am not sure how sensitive the antibodies test is. The Covid test has only 70% sensitivity which would mean an even higher number. I am a little annoyed with the certainty with which so called scientists are predicting the second wave. It is almost like they got all this attention and still want to dominate the headlines.

We do not really have a good placebo control group, but I think Sweden versus its neighbors will be interesting. My opinion, really it was more of a feeling, is that the virus was so contagious that I am not sure how much social isolation helped. Sweden did not go overboard with isolation and has twice as many cases of the virus and deaths as their neighbors. Will that trend hold true once the other countries loosen up their isolation? If the trend holds, then that is good evidence that social isolation worked. If not, then it would lead me to believe that the only benefit of social isolation was not stopping the virus but slowing the spread at best. We shall see.

Anecdotally, there was a church near me where the preacher and his wife were sick and gave a sermon. They tested +. It has been over two weeks since the sermon, and the town was bracing for a huge outbreak after that. Everyone who went to the church and got symptoms got to be automatically tested. Three other people tested + and they all had mild symptoms. One person in that city, who got the virus and didn't go to church, was 89 and he was placed on hospice. So in this city, where people are not on top of each other like NYC, the amount of people who got sick was truly underwhelming.

I was in Mexico and had to scurry home because of talk of the Mexican border being shut down to all but essential services. Well, you can see for sure now that there was no reason for that. If you look at all of the counties in Texas and even into New Mexico touching Mexico, there have been only 50 deaths from the virus on the USA Side. Given the virus is organically growing everywhere now, I really do not get the concept of shutting down borders.

I think people who mock others who say "this is just the flu" do not understand how deadly "just the flu" can be. 20% of all cold viruses are in the corona family, and it kills tens of thousands of people every year. Was this virus super infectious? Super deadly? Or both? If the death rate turns out to really be 0. 2% versus 0. 1%, then do we really need to go crazy with all these precautions? The whole reason for social isolation, which seems to be forgotten now, was to flatten the curve so health care facilities were not overwhelmed. Well, we seemed to have crossed that threshold. Shouldn't the isolation start winding down now then?

This whole concept that we have to stay in isolation forever so you do not get a virus is crazy. Hell, if we cared so much about stopping deadly viruses from spreading, shouldn't we ban group day care and schools in general? That is where viruses typically grow. You could probably cut the annual death rate from influenza in half if you banned group daycare and elementary schools, but we keep them open because the benefit outweighs the risk.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2444565]I highly doubt that Colombia will be opening up anytime soon[/QUOTE]Would you choose to stay or leave if you had another chance?

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2444632]How can you believe the stuff you're reading. Common flu more dangerous? When did a flu double every few days (as little as 4 days) and kill up to 4% of the people it infected. And kill 40,000 people in about a month in one country. I'm calling bullshit on you.[/QUOTE]Zeos in 2017 the virus killed 80,000. It is possible that this flu was not more deadly but one helluva lot more infectious. That would mean the deaths and infections would rise sharply and fall sharply.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2444645]I am not sure how much social isolation helped. Sweden did not go overboard with isolation and has twice as many cases of the virus and deaths as their neighbors. Will that trend hold true once the other countries loosen up their isolation? If the trend holds, then that is good evidence that social isolation worked. If not, then it would lead me to believe that the only benefit of social isolation was not stopping the virus but slowing the spread at best. We shall see.[/QUOTE]I think it has to do with how early you start the social isolation, and what is the cost? There probably is a point when the cost won't justify, then it may be considered like flu.

It is easier to evaluate immediate death number but it is difficult to evaluate long term pain, or death. How does one equate death with the amount of pain? Think about why some people commit suicide for various reasons. Why not just live and endure pain no matter how great it is?

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2444487]YippieKayay is like a resident Colombian expert. YOu must not have been reading the Colombian Forum for very long.[/QUOTE]I have been reading this forum since before YippieKayay made his first post. Remember when he got ripped out going to Cartagena? You can have your opinion of an expect, and I will have mine. I think mine are more reliable.

[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/coronavirus-america-future.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share[/URL]

I read this article this morning and it gives a fascinating outlook on what can happen.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2444550]t's not the Holy Grail. It potentially drops mortality rate down to only twice as high as the flu. However, it also demonstrates a much higher and quicker spread than the flu. So, it's (probably) less deadly than expected, but will infect more people, keeping the total number of deaths high.[/QUOTE]I think this solution does not consider a single mortality rate. It thinks there are two, one for high risk group, one for low risk group. It must have assumed the mortality rate of the low risk group is closer to mortality rate of flu. Or I will use a different number for argument's sake. Total number of deaths per 10 K residents (infected or not) for the low risk group is similar to flu.

If the above assumption is true or everyone can agree on, considering the amount of money US is spending, one extreme way the US can do is to quarantine the high risk group in the best hotels available free. Everyone in high risk group get early retirement with full retirement benefit or paid medical leave with job guarantee.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2444649]Zeos in 2017 the virus killed 80,000. It is possible that this flu was not more deadly but one helluva lot more infectious. That would mean the deaths and infections would rise sharply and fall sharply.[/QUOTE]Is that number USA Only or worldwide?

[QUOTE=Nounce;2444647]Would you choose to stay or leave if you had another chance?[/QUOTE]That's a good question which I have been contemplating now for a while.

My biggest concern about returning would be what type of healthcare I would get if I got infected and had to be hospitalized there. My plan is to wait until Colombia finally opens up again and I am assuming it's going to be a while, at least a few months. On that date who knows, maybe a readily available cure will be available, such as, Oh you have the clap, bend over, get a shot, and in few days your better. Highly unlikely though but who knows, I'm also going to get the anti-body test when Colombia formally opens back up, and if by some miracle I already had the virus and there's some evidence that I have immunity which isn't clear yet I will immediately return.

Again my biggest concern about returning would be having to be hospitalized. Yes there are some top notch Hospitals in Medellin, but they are just not going to have as much access to everything including treatments, etc. Like in the USA. I know others may differ on this, but you need to ask yourself, if your going to land up in a Hospital, and not by choice, where would you rather be.

On a optimistic note, as bad as this Pandemic is, and the wrath it has caused, the entire planets medical scientists and researchers are trying to come up with treatments / cure and a vaccine for the Virus. So with so many people working on it, hopefully by no later than sometime next year there will be a vaccine and things can return closer to normal.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2444258]Unfortunately, spoiling my warm, sunny idea is Guayaquil, which is right on the equator. I read they have bodies laying on the streets there;.[/QUOTE]There is an article about it.

[URL]https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html[/URL]

Belgium 490 deaths per million.

Netherlands 215.

Switzerland 156.

Sweden 150.

I don't even have to mention Italy (437), Spain (391) or France (302).

And that without any lockdown, it's called winning.

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2443874]The problem with with the ideal of "Freedom of choice" and letting people"evaluate their risk" when dealing with a contagious disease is that these people are going to spread it to other people. If someone is allowed to catch the disease than that's their choice sure. But are they also going to be responsible and stay home after they catch it- not go to the grocery store and breath all of over people? The ones who don't give a shit about being careful are not going to be trusted to keep themselves away from other people.

You know these protests do not reflect how the majority of people think right? Two polls, one from Gallup the other from a very respected marketing company.

71% of Americans are not ready to just jump back in to normalcy but are in a wait and see mode to see what happens with this virus.

[URL]https://news.gallup.com/poll/308264/americans-remain-risk-averse-getting-back-normal.aspx[/URL]

"69% saying they can accept extreme limitations for more than a month if it helps to suppress the infection rate. Two-thirds go so far as to say they don't care how long restrictions are in place if it prevents widespread illness and death. ".

[URL]https://www.herald-dispatch.com/wcn/wc_news/research-america-americans-are-optimistic-despite-uncertainty-amid-pandemic/article_679a2b77-78b1-544e-925f-30bb42194585.html[/URL][/QUOTE]There are a lot of stupid sheeple in the USA. The pols took an oath to defend the USA Consititution. They are violating that oath in the sam manor that communist / facist dictators do in other countries. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2444680]There is an article about it.

[URL]https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html[/URL][/QUOTE]Australia would be nice and toasty right now wouldn't it? I just took a look at their data and it looks wierd:

[URL]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/[/URL]

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2444632]How can you believe the stuff you're reading. Common flu more dangerous? When did a flu double every few days (as little as 4 days) and kill up to 4% of the people it infected. And kill 40,000 people in about a month in one country. I'm calling bullshit on you.

Of course there have been many different coronaviruses. It's a family of viruses including the common cold. But this new one is a very bad one. And without the measures that have been taken the deaths would have been many many times greater.[/QUOTE]No offense but bull. Death rate is less than 1%. More contagious but most don't even know they have it. Only those who are sick from other diseases or very old are at serious risk. What's your source of 4%?

[QUOTE=TyDown;2444575]You're absolutely correct, the coronavirus has been around since the beginning of time, nothing new with here. The survival rate of people infected with Corona-19 is +99% . My point is, Why crash the Global economy? The common Flu is more dangerous. I'm calling bullshit on this one, there is something else going on that they are not telling us.[/QUOTE]Yes, I suspect this also. What are the ulterior motives of these power hungry pols who are violating their oaths to defend the USA Constitution. But this is world wide. Is this an attempt to cement globalism by the uber / hidden rich? An attempt to destroy America? What?

It does show how many gullible and stupid and borderline hysterics there are in the world. The anxiety level must be high and / or most people are cowards who cannot stand up against despots.

Here in the Phil. Many no it's all BULL_crap. They are only following the rules because they are frightened of the cops here. Truth is then cannot start arresting people for violating the quarantine because then the cheap UKs will have to house and feed them.

[QUOTE=TyDown;2444538]It's unbelievable what is happening. The Federal Reserve is projecting over 42 million unemployed by June 2020. The coming worldwide depression will kill millions, maybe even billions, over a stupid virus. I tell you what, the powers that be know what's coming, and we are being conditioned to stay at home and starve, have you seen what is going on in the agricultural world? Dumping milk, dumping produce, meat products are being fazed out, farmers are being told to stop farming. I hope you like Soylent Green.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E&t=4s[/URL][/QUOTE]Hahaha, yeah that's next: soylent green. We can use all the imagined dead bodies from the corona virus for that. Hahaha.

Several people who had the virus and recovered have tested positive again. So, I would not devote much mental energy to the antibody question at this point. As far as hospitals, as of today in Colombia there are 395 people hospitalized for coronavirus of which 100 are in intensive care. Just under 4,000 confirmed cases is today's national total. If I had my choice between a US or Colombian hospital I would go Colombian with no hesitation. I would feel that way even if I had not seen bodies piled up in hallways and storage rooms in US hospitals.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2444667]That's a good question which I have been contemplating now for a while.

My biggest concern about returning would be what type of healthcare I would get if I got infected and had to be hospitalized there. My plan is to wait until Colombia finally opens up again and I am assuming it's going to be a while, at least a few months. On that date who knows, maybe a readily available cure will be available, such as, Oh you have the clap, bend over, get a shot, and in few days your better. Highly unlikely though but who knows, I'm also going to get the anti-body test when Colombia formally opens back up, and if by some miracle I already had the virus and there's some evidence that I have immunity which isn't clear yet I will immediately return.

Again my biggest concern about returning would be having to be hospitalized. Yes there are some top notch Hospitals in Medellin, but they are just not going to have as much access to everything including treatments, etc. Like in the USA. I know others may differ on this, but you need to ask yourself, if your going to land up in a Hospital, and not by choice, where would you rather be.

On a optimistic note, as bad as this Pandemic is, and the wrath it has caused, the entire planets medical scientists and researchers are trying to come up with treatments / cure and a vaccine for the Virus. So with so many people working on it, hopefully by no later than sometime next year there will be a vaccine and things can return closer to normal.[/QUOTE]

Stay, 100%, and I did have a chance to take a flight to the US three days ago.

[QUOTE=Nounce;2444647]Would you choose to stay or leave if you had another chance?[/QUOTE]

It's not cherry picking when I'm comparing it to your Nordic neighbors. You seem to be pretty high on Sweden and now you don't want to compare similar geography?

And trust me, it's not me stalking. You reached out on private message first if you've conveniently forgot, lol. Then I looked at your post history and it's just a bunch of "yay Sweden and coronavirus is not a big deal rah rah rah". I'm glad the moderator here is deleting some of these nonsensical posts.

[QUOTE=ShooBree;2444711]Oh, so you are cherry-picking. Why are you stalking me and so obsessed by giving a inaccurate picture of things?

Belgium 490 deaths per million.

Netherlands 215.

Switzerland 156.

Sweden...[/QUOTE]

It seems to me from what I read that the European countries are planing very gradual reopening. So gradual that we might not see international flights to / from there for 2 or more months. That is quite long. And even though I am having a good time in Colombia, I could use a brake during summer. What you guys think? Are we really months away from getting on a plane to Spain or Miami?

Watch the Spirit and embassy web suites. There was a flight to Miami on Spirit just three days ago.

[QUOTE=Junior11;2444749]It seems to me from what I read that the European countries are planing very gradual reopening. So gradual that we might not see international flights to / from there for 2 or more months. That is quite long. And even though I am having a good time in Colombia, I could use a brake during summer. What you guys think? Are we really months away from getting on a plane to Spain or Miami?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=ChuchoLoco;2444663]Is that number USA Only or worldwide?[/QUOTE]That was USA Only in 2017. Interestingly, there were 10,000 deaths that year in Texas. Corona virus has only killed 477 so far in Texas so "just the flu" which was H1 N1 that year was 20 X worse so far in Texas.

On a optimistic note, as bad as this Pandemic is, and the wrath it has caused, the entire planets medical scientists and researchers are trying to come up with treatments / cure and a vaccine for the Virus. So with so many people working on it, hopefully by no later than sometime next year there will be a vaccine and things can return closer to normal.

HIV started over 40 yrs ago, trillions (usd) have been spent chasing a vaccine, it is also a virus.

[QUOTE=TurdyCurdyOne;2444706]Yes, I suspect this also. What are the ulterior motives of these power hungry pols who are violating their oaths to defend the USA Constitution. But this is world wide. Is this an attempt to cement globalism by the uber / hidden rich? An attempt to destroy America? What?

It does show how many gullible and stupid and borderline hysterics there are in the world. The anxiety level must be high and / or most people are cowards who cannot stand up against despots.

Here in the Phil. Many no it's all BULL_crap. They are only following the rules because they are frightened of the cops here. Truth is then cannot start arresting people for violating the quarantine because then the cheap UKs will have to house and feed them.[/QUOTE]I can't speak for Philadelphia. People elsewhere, I have a bit of insight on. I'll use 2 personal examples My sister and my brother.

My sister and her husband are ardent Obama hating, Trump loving right wing, gun toting conservatives. They both work full-time, blue collar jobs and have a combined middle class income, yet they struggle to get ahead. Recently, my brother-in-law was laid off due to the shutdown. He has since returned to work. If anyone should be anxious to get the country opened back up it's them. They're just the opposite. My sister, on her own, started making masks for friends and co-workers. Her husband spent the layoff doing home projects. Both told me they hope people just stay home until the numbers drop.

My brother is the opposite. Although he's not nearly as far left as my sister is right, he's solid Democrat. He has spent the last 17 years building a successful small business and has done well. He's got 2 big pole barns full of expensive toys that would make most guys drool. Him and his wife live quite well and the business keeps them comfortably high in the middle-class group. His business is hurting. While he's still open, considered essential, income is way down and if this shutdown goes on too long, he might be forced to close his doors. While he's eager for things to get back up and running, he also feels we need to sit it out for a little while longer.

I'll add in a friend who is a nurse. At the beginning, she was laughing at how the media was blowing everything out of proportion and how people were overreacting. Then she started getting patients with COVID-19. She saw the disease in action and did a 180° flip. When she gets home from work, she strips in the garage, sanitizes her shoes, bags her dirty clothes and immediately washes everything. She's frequently ranting that people need to take this more serious. She's desperate for a vacation, but won't even consider it right now.

I'm active on the local Fox affiliates website. I read their stories and get involved with the comments. This in a solidly red state. My buddy, a Democrat, Evangelical Christian jokes that if Jesus Christ ran as a Democrat against Satan running as Republican here, he'd get his ass stomped.

I've been watching the Fox viewer comments. Except for the obvious trolls, the opinions have shifted. They went from cries of "hoax" and "fake news" to "why can't people stay at home?" Granted, there are some, who probably get their news from the same source you do, who are whining about the Constitution, but they're not a significant minority.

I don't see this widespread panic about the extended shutdown. I don't see fear of the police keeping anyone at home. If anything I'm seeing increased support for the police.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2444766]That was USA Only in 2017. Interestingly, there were 10,000 deaths that year in Texas. Corona virus has only killed 477 so far in Texas so "just the flu" which was H1 N1 that year was 20 X worse so far in Texas.[/QUOTE]I remember H1 N1 somewhat but don't recall it being so bad. My memory (is that it was another false flu alarm starting with Ford and the Swine Flu but that's my memory only. If your numbers are correct, that's an amazing amount of flu victims and why was it never mentioned in all the reporting either by the media or the WH Task Force? Something is not right somewhere and I don't know where.

Ever since the Warren Report when I was a teen, I haven't believed much of anything by governments or by conspiracy career money makers. But for some reason, the fact that this virus and it's effects reported worldwide makes me think something is real here. I mean look at all the border and inter national travel closings and quoronteens. Scenes from hospitals worldwide too. Has the whole world been duped?

I guess only time will tell. I just hope me, my family and everyone's are here to see what it really is or was. I guess for now, I'm thinking I'd rather be a live chicken than a dead duck.

Good luck, stay safe.

[QUOTE=Junior11;2444749]It seems to me from what I read that the European countries are planing very gradual reopening. So gradual that we might not see international flights to / from there for 2 or more months. That is quite long. And even though I am having a good time in Colombia, I could use a brake during summer. What you guys think? Are we really months away from getting on a plane to Spain or Miami?[/QUOTE]I don't think there are going to be very many flights going anywhere soon, and when they start back up it's going to be very gradual. Probably the first flights to open up out of Medellin will probably be on American, Spirit, and JetBlue back to the USA and the reason I say this is because the USA has basically bailed or will be bailing them out. Other carriers like COPA, Latam, and Avianca, not sure about them as Latam and Avianca were already on shaky financial ground and for COPA to resume flying back into Colombia then their hub in Panama City would have to be open. Don't know what else to say except that you, and me, and every one else on this board would like to know the answer to your question that nobody knows.

The article linked below is about the H1N1 pandemic. It was written in the midst of H1N1 (Dec 2009). Much of the information can be applied to and used to compare to the Covid-19. One thing that stood out to me "The past few weeks have seen a variety of media reports, scientific publications, and blog posts that support, or at least imply, the conclusion that the current influenza pandemic is likely the "mildest on record" and seems to be waning." At the time the article was written, approximately one half of the total H1N1 deaths in the US had occurred.

[URL]https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/making-sense-h1n1-pandemic-whats-going[/URL]

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2444913]The article linked below is about the H1N1 pandemic. It was written in the midst of H1N1 (Dec 2009). Much of the information can be applied to and used to compare to the Covid-19. One thing that stood out to me "The past few weeks have seen a variety of media reports, scientific publications, and blog posts that support, or at least imply, the conclusion that the current influenza pandemic is likely the "mildest on record" and seems to be waning." At the time the article was written, approximately one half of the total H1N1 deaths in the US had occurred.

[URL]https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/making-sense-h1n1-pandemic-whats-going[/URL][/QUOTE]The 2009 H1 N1 outbreak worries were based upon early worldwide reports. Worldwide, especially early on, the death rate was high. By the time it hit the US, it was dropping off. The US also, at first hint of a problem pushed hard for people to get flu shots. If I remember correctly, there were shortages of the flu shots that year.

However, it doesn't compare. The US already has over 41,000 confirmed deaths. Only 12,000 (or 9,000 depending on which CDC numbers you use) from H1 N1. Nothing was shutdown in 2009. Practically everything is shutdown today. No social distancing in 2009. Plenty of it now.

I understand you think the world shouldn't have shut everything down, but the world shut everything down. You can argue all you want and it's not going to change anything. What's done is done.

Everyone wants the same thing you want. It will happen. I think it will begin to happen soon. You won't be hopping on a plane May 1, and then hopping on a chica, but you will begin to see a path towards the goal.

I want this over at least as much as you. I've got some unbelievable girls waiting to meet me. It'll happen. Next April we'll know whether or not you were right. For now it's an argument nobody can win.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2444667]That's a good question which I have been contemplating now for a while.[/QUOTE]I think I am more concerned about I will be alone, and my family will worry about me if I got sick.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2444855]I can't speak for Philadelphia. People elsewhere, I have a bit of insight on. I'll use 2 personal examples My sister and my brother.

My sister and her husband are ardent Obama hating, Trump loving right wing, gun toting conservatives. They both work full-time, blue collar jobs and have a combined middle class income, yet they struggle to get ahead. Recently, my brother-in-law was laid off due to the shutdown. He has since returned to work. If anyone should be anxious to get the country opened back up it's them. They're just the opposite. My sister, on her own, started making masks for friends and co-workers. Her husband spent the layoff doing home projects. Both told me they hope people just stay home until the numbers drop.

My brother is the opposite. Although he's not nearly as far left as my sister is right, he's solid Democrat. He has spent the last 17 years building a successful small business and has done well. He's got 2 big pole barns full of expensive toys that would make most guys drool. Him and his wife live quite well and the business keeps them comfortably high in the middle-class group. His business is hurting. While he's still open, considered essential, income is way down and if this shutdown goes on too long, he might be forced to close his doors. While he's eager for things to get back up and running, he also feels we need to sit it out for a little while longer..[/QUOTE]TL; DR: People I know support the shutdown, so everybody must support it. Oh, and if you care about constitutional rights, you must be a whiner.

[QUOTE=ChuchoLoco;2444886]I remember H1 N1 somewhat but don't recall it being so bad. My memory (is that it was another false flu alarm starting with Ford and the Swine Flu but that's my memory only. If your numbers are correct, that's an amazing amount of flu victims and why was it never mentioned in all the reporting either by the media or the WH Task Force? Something is not right somewhere and I don't know where.

Ever since the Warren Report when I was a teen, I haven't believed much of anything by governments or by conspiracy career money makers. But for some reason, the fact that this virus and it's effects reported worldwide makes me think something is real here. I mean look at all the border and inter national travel closings and quoronteens. Scenes from hospitals worldwide too. Has the whole world been duped?

I guess only time will tell. I just hope me, my family and everyone's are here to see what it really is or was. I guess for now, I'm thinking I'd rather be a live chicken than a dead duck.

Good luck, stay safe.[/QUOTE]It was 10,000 in Texas and 143,000 nationwide in the 2017-2018 flu season. See the link: [URL]https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Flu-killed-nearly-10-000-Texans-in-2017-2018-13028706.php[/URL].

(In Texas) The 9,470 deaths represent a spike of nearly 27 percent from the 7,459 deaths in the 2016-2017 season, and an increase of nearly 82 percent over the 5,215 deaths in 2015-2016, the only previous years when overall deaths were tracked.

The latest USA Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report shows nearly 143,000 people, including 172 children, died from the flu and pneumonia in 2017-2018 through mid-May.

This is what the head of the WHO said today:

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yboX5UeMWdI[/URL]

We're in for more.

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2444735]Several people who had the virus and recovered have tested positive again. So, I would not devote much mental energy to the antibody question at this point. As far as hospitals, as of today in Colombia there are 395 people hospitalized for coronavirus of which 100 are in intensive care. Just under 4,000 confirmed cases is today's national total. If I had my choice between a US or Colombian hospital I would go Colombian with no hesitation. I would feel that way even if I had not seen bodies piled up in hallways and storage rooms in US hospitals.[/QUOTE]Several people is an accurate statement but this article says it is a very low percentage of people that are positive again on a retest. I am trying to read more about this. Where did you get your information?

[URL]https://www.winknews.com/2020/04/18/recovered-coronavirus-patients-are-testing-positive-again-can-you-get-reinfected/[/URL]

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2445071]Several people is an accurate statement but this article says it is a very low percentage of people that are positive again on a retest. I am trying to read more about this. Where did you get your information?

[URL]https://www.winknews.com/2020/04/18/recovered-coronavirus-patients-are-testing-positive-again-can-you-get-reinfected/[/URL][/QUOTE]Mojo, here is one.

[URL]https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-koreas-new-coronavirus-twist-recovered-patients-test-positive-again-11587145248[/URL]

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2444735]I would feel that way even if I had not seen bodies piled up in hallways and storage rooms in US hospitals.[/QUOTE]New York is not US.

[URL]https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/04/20/hollywood-has-9-billion-reasons-to-not-blame-china-for-the-coronavirus-pandemic/[/URL]#.

[URL]https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/1474a160-857b-39ff-b051-2f8a2a5f5c87/dutch-court-approves.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/opinion/coronavirus-hospital-shortage.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=BodyAnybody;2444971]TL; DR: People I know support the shutdown, so everybody must support it. Oh, and if you care about constitutional rights, you must be a whiner.[/QUOTE]Shall I go through the opinions expressed by everyone I know? I gave 3 examples, from 3 different views, plus a 4th trending consensus as representative of what I'm seeing. I could add in that of the people I work with who have expressed an opinion there is no rush to reopen everything. Most of those guys are poor and black.

I simply haven't seen or heard any indication of widespread anger or panic over the shutdown. The only people who I've heard it from are people who "care about Constitutional rights. " Selectively.

Care to debate me on Constitutional rights? Present your arguments.

If you want to know why Michigan was the first place where rioting when on, you can read this: [URL]https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/what-michigans-new-coronavirus-stay-home-executive-order-means[/URL].

"Larger stores with more than 50,000 square feet must limit the number of customers inside at one time, allowing no more than four customers per 1,000 square feet of retail floor space. That means a Meijer with 100,000 square feet of floor space can allow a maximum of 400 customers inside at any one time.

Whitmer's order also requires large retailers to close carpet or flooring, furniture, garden and plant nursery sections, either by blocking them, placing signs in aisles, posting prominent signs or removing goods from shelves. Bottle return sections at grocery stores must also remain closed.

Starting Monday, large retailers cannot advertise products that are not groceries, medical supplies or items necessary to maintain the safety, sanitation and basic operation of residences. ".

We are now seeing politicians in love with the daily coronavirus briefings, telling people what they can and cannot buy, where they can and cannot be. Politicians have become health experts on all matters now and no one is reigning them in. We have gone from flattening the curve to this nonsense of stopping the disease in its track, a foolhardy endeavor if there ever was one. A friend of mine is politically connected, and he sees people in politics that he cannot stand doing all they can to get face time on television. The red tape, and arbitrary social distancing, has caused his business to be 10 X less efficient.

I talked to an alternative medicine doctor. He told me that they are getting fantastic results with ozone, methylene blue, peroxide, and Vitamin see. These doctors have been treating the untreatable cold virus a long time with great results and hate vaccines. I am not anti-vaccine. I just wonder how many of them are necessary. As one doctor said, "I get the polio vaccine, but chicken pox? We don't have long term data on that. " When I asked a doctor who is also not totally anti-vaccine how often he saw autism after a vaccine he replied with disgust, "Thousands of times. ".

The calculation on vaccines is very difficult to do. If one person does not get a vaccine, because of herd immunity, nothing happens. If 10,0000 people in a community do not get say the measles vaccine, you can have and we are seeing deadly outbreaks of measles. The alternative medicine doctor told me 75% of pediatrician's revenues come from vaccines.

In 2017 and that horrible flu season, the flu vaccine was only 17% effective. One year a company put too much viron in the flu vaccine and millions got flu like symptoms from the flu vaccine. Vaccines are problematic especially for cold viruses like corona and the alternative medicine doctor says Bill Gates wants to vaccinate the whole world against Corona. This doctor is saying Fauci is another one of these vaccine nazis, and the notion that they are going to control others with vaccines and immunity certificates and profit from them is down right scary.

We were told that NYC needed tens of thousands of ventilators. To be sure, the Javits center and navy hospital ship were Americans at their best. Getting hospital beds in position for the coming crisis in record time was amazing. GM devoted a plant to making ventilators at cost. It certainly was something that made me proud to be an American. Fortunately, it was not necessary. The Javits center is near empty: [URL]https://www.businessinsider.com/why-nycs-largest-emergency-hospital-javits-center-pretty-much-empty-2020-4[/URL].

Yesterday's news that oil contracts went negative was unprecedented IMO a harbinger of horrible economic news to come. The notion that we are going to have a V shaped recovery is ridiculous. The oil industry for one is going to be devastated for years.

This virus is and was terrible, but the goal of flattening the curve and the enormous sacrifices made to achieve it have been met. I do not get why it is irresponsible for things to go back to normal as quickly as possible now. The idea that transmission of the virus can be slowed I get, the idea that it can be stopped for good is laughable given the economic trade off. There are bacteria and viruses around us all the time that are horrible and fatal. Why should the world now be stopped because of this one? I do not like seeing so many people trying now to cash in money wise and power wise and attention wise. Enough already.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2445174]...When I asked a doctor who is also not totally anti-vaccine how often he saw autism after a vaccine he replied with disgust, "Thousands of times...[/QUOTE]The implication that there is a positive correlation between childhood vaccines and autism is false. The statistics on this are as clear as they can be. There is no linkage. (In fact, there is a very small negative correlation between vaccination and autism. Meaning vaccination correlates with protection against autism). The science behind this is clear. The idea behind this originated in a 1998 paper by Andrew Wakefield; however, no one could replicate his findings. Gigantic epidemiological studies were made to determine if there is causality. There is none. It was found that Andrew Wakefield faked his results, the paper was withdrawn, and he lost his medical license. If there is one thing we can say with complete assurance, it is that childhood vaccinations do not correlate with autism.

Further, the "controversy" about childhood vaccination has been promulgated by Russian troll farms. The purpose is to create dissent of science and government in the West. It is one of the many lies they create to destabilize us. When you print their disinformation, agitprop, you are inadvertently colloborating with Russian intelligence efforts.

Mongers All -.

Know that there is an extraordinary uptick of Hacking taking place throughout South America. A special target (no surprise) is our pastime. Just to put you on notice, the ArgentinaPrivate portion of this site has been hacked recently. Go take a look. Hopefully, this site will be spared.

LOL.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGzBrOCkffw[/URL]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2445174]If you want to know why Michigan was the first place where rioting when on, you can read this: [URL]https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/what-michigans-new-coronavirus-stay-home-executive-order-means[/URL].

"Larger stores with more than 50,000 square feet must limit the number of customers inside at one time, allowing no more than four customers per 1,000 square feet of retail floor space. That means a Meijer with 100,000 square feet of floor space can allow a maximum of 400 customers inside at any one time.

Whitmer's order also requires large retailers to close carpet or flooring, furniture, garden and plant nursery sections, either by blocking them, placing signs in aisles, posting prominent signs or removing goods from shelves. Bottle return sections at grocery stores must also remain closed.

Starting Monday, large retailers cannot advertise products that are not groceries, medical supplies or items necessary to maintain the safety, sanitation and basic operation of residences. "..[/QUOTE]You were doing so good, but this is a huge step backwards.

Let's start with the restrictions on number of customers in Meijer. 4 customers per 1,000 ft². When you consider that a 100,000 ft² store only has about 35,000 ft² of open floor, 4 customers per 1,000 equates to about 6 ft of separation between everyone (stores have employees and product and storage areas). The only people who are upset over this apparently never learned to use a calculator.

The idea is, if something is starting to work, you stick with it, instead of declaring victory and stopping it. That's why the restrictions on essential items remain in place.

Calling what went on in Michigan rioting is like calling a backyard koi pond one of the great lakes. I drive through Lansing 4 times a week. I was driving through Lansing when the "riots" took place. It didn't look anything like the 1992 riots in LA. In fact it looked like a rather pathetic group of people who are easily duped. I'll be back through Lansing tonight and tomorrow afternoon. I'll look for the telltale plumes of smoke and all the flashing lights and sirens.

There are 2 purposes for vaccines. Any doctor who doesn't understand them both should have their license revoked.

1. Prevent the effects of the disease.

2. Prevent the spread of the disease.

Number 1 is for individuals. Number 2 is for everyone. Let's take a minor disease like chickenpox. Let's say there were 4 million cases per year in the US before the vaccine became available, because that's the estimate. That's 4 million walking, crawling incubators producing copies of the varicella virus. Viruses mutate. Each one of those little itchy incubators is trying its best to produce a different strain of the virus. How about a strain with a 30% mortality rate? When we vaccinate, we reduce the risk of a successful, deadlier version of the disease popping up.

It's strange how alternative medicine doctors never make any breakthroughs. I mean, you'd think, just once, one of them would have come up with a cure for something.

As for 75% of pediatrician's revenue coming from vaccines, I'm literally floored that you didn't laugh in his face and call him a fool.

Surely at some time in your life you've seen children. They're everywhere. They get cuts and broken bones and all sorts of nasty little illnesses. They run high fevers and puke and shit and seem like they're about to die. They develop allergies. And parents, especially new parents, rush them off to the pediatrician at the first sign of any illness. Yet you're willing to believe that the pediatricians make 75% of their income from administering vaccines?

That oil news must have hit you hard. You went full tinfoil hat on your alternative medicine anti vaccine rant.

Yes, it's irresponsible to immediately go back to business as usual. It's worse than irresponsible, it's insane. I understand your view. The markets are probably heading down. Possibly way down. You aren't comfortable with that. You'd rather see the oil surplus changed to a shortage. You'd rather see stocks comfortably trending up. That's not likely to happen for awhile.

However, there's good news. Remember 2008? That's the year when oil prices were through the roof. We were paying $4.50 a gallon. Then came the fall. Everything went to shit. Foreclosures, bankruptcies, reorganizations, bailouts. Almost like we're seeing now. By the middle of 2009 the downward spiral was petering out and in 2010 everything started turning around. It turned around so much that we had 10 years of growth. Heck, just 2 months ago President Trump was beaming about the economy, the stock market and unemployment.

We might fall further this time, but everything will bounce back. The further we fall, the bigger the upside on the recovery.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2445208]LOL.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGzBrOCkffw[/URL][/QUOTE]OK, so let's review what this study had to say.

1. It was a small study.

2. The study was not peer reviewed, which means no one analyzed the methodology, tested the controls or checked for effects from practiced like researcher degrees of freedom.

3. A death rate of 22% was reported in the patients given the drugs. A death rate of 11% was reported in the patients who did not take the drugs. This means that the patients in the study are more or less the worst off. That death rate is what? 5 to 10 times higher than what is widely reported for this virus?

4. Previously, successful use of this drug has been reported in patients in the early stages of the illness, not those who are already near death as those in this study appeared to have been.

5. There is no evidence of causation in these study results. In other words, people died after taking the drug, but there is no reason to believe that the drug contributed to their death. If there was, we would see toxicology reports showing how the drug harmed them.

5. Because of the size of the study, lack of peer review and proper controls, these results can be written off as statistical noise.

I don't care about Trump or this drug, but CNN peddles bullshit, just like fox and MSNBC, and people like you spread it like a toddler painting the walls with shit.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2444924]However, it doesn't compare. The US already has over 41,000 confirmed deaths. Only 12,000 (or 9,000 depending on which CDC numbers you use) from H1 N1.[/QUOTE]Things do not have to be equal to be compared. In fact, you don't know the difference unless you compare them. I did not mention anything about death counts. I said the information in the article can be used to compare to the Covin-19. One of the bits of information is the age ranges most affected by the two are very different. Also, that some older people may have had residual acquired immunity to H1N1.

[QUOTE=BodyAnybody;2445216]

I don't care about Trump or this drug, but CNN peddles bullshit, just like fox and MSNBC, and people like you spread it like a toddler painting the walls with shit.[/QUOTE]All the points you listed Dr. Gupta talked about in the first few minutes. So how is that peddling bullshit?

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2445208]LOL.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGzBrOCkffw[/URL][/QUOTE]That's why you do comprehensive studies first, instead of just winging it.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2445226]All the points you listed Dr. Gupta talked about in the first few minutes. So how is that peddling bullshit?[/QUOTE]Their bullshit waste mostly in what they left out. Gupta, as a doctor should have explained what the high mortality rare in that group of patients meant. The fact that this study was made up of people close to death, or with underlying conditions that increased their risk of death from the virus is extremely important. This has to be the case with death rates so high, or we would be seeing another black plague and saying good by to a quarter of the world's population.

They also never mentioned that correlation is not always equal to causation. Most people who watch CNN do not know any of this, and CNN is aware of that.

Finally, the title of your post was "Trump pills don't work and can be lethal". Either you are liar, or the video gave you the impression that your title is true. Which is it?

[QUOTE=BodyAnybody;2445216]OK, so let's review what this study had to say.

1. It was a small study.

2. The study was not peer reviewed, which means no one analyzed the methodology, tested the controls or checked for effects from practiced like researcher degrees of freedom.

3. A death rate of 22% was reported in the patients given the drugs. A death rate of 11% was reported in the patients who did not take the drugs. This means that the patients in the study are more or less the worst off. That death rate is what? 5 to 10 times higher than what is widely reported for this virus?

4. Previously, successful use of this drug has been reported in patients in the early stages of the illness, not those who are already near death as those in this study appeared to have been.

5. There is no evidence of causation in these study results. In other words, people died after taking the drug, but there is no reason to believe that the drug contributed to their death. If there was, we would see toxicology reports showing how the drug harmed them.

5. Because of the size of the study, lack of peer review and proper controls, these results can be written off as statistical noise.

I don't care about Trump or this drug, but CNN peddles bullshit, just like fox and MSNBC, and people like you spread it like a toddler painting the walls with shit.[/QUOTE]I want to add a few more points.

1. That was not a clinical test. It was a retrospective analysis test.

2. Patients were put in one of three groups (HC, HC + AZ, No HC). Criteria for determining the group was based on dispensed drug records at the VA hospitals. No consideration of the time frame of taking the drugs.

3. Compared to the No HC group, there was a higher risk of death from any cause in the HC group (from the report).

4. Those drugs have been used for more than 65 years. If they were killing people, I am sure there would be a bunch of lawyers suing the manufacturer and doctors who prescribed them.

Here's a link to a report of the study: [URL]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v1.full.pdf[/URL].

Coronavirus antibody testing shows LA County outbreak is up to 55 times bigger than reported cases.

Key points.

The Covid-19 outbreak in LOS Angeles County could be up to 55 times bigger than the number of confirmed cases, according to new research from the University of Southern California and the LA Department of Public Health.

The data, if correct, would mean that the county's fatality rate is lower than originally thought.

With just 4% of the population infected with the disease, LA County is still very early in the epidemic, said USC professor Neeraj Sood, who led the study.

Link to the article:

[URL]https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html[/URL]

Some of us predicted that this would be the case, nci expect it to bear out.

[QUOTE=Macgoo;2445189]Mongers All -.

Know that there is an extraordinary uptick of Hacking taking place throughout South America. A special target (no surprise) is our pastime. Just to put you on notice, the ArgentinaPrivate portion of this site has been hacked recently. Go take a look. Hopefully, this site will be spared.[/QUOTE]I just got an XSS script attack (which I blocked) from this site.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2445213]You were doing so good, but this is a huge step backwards.[/QUOTE]You got a F in your predictions. I could say white and you would say black. Here is a true story by the way. I walked into a grocery store, and I have been to several in several different cities all over the state I have lived in. I was told, "Do you have a mask?" by one of four people on mask patrol in the front of the grocery store. I said that I did not and asked if they had any for sale. They did not. I was told that I could use a T-shirt, and I went back to my hotel room and got one. On the plane, I had no mask on and no one said anything. In front of the store, there were four people standing around making sure that I had something covering my face. The T-shirt practically blinded me and I was a hazard to myself and others but I was not spreading "the virus".

On the way out, there were three people dressed in black like the old USSR on mask patrol. ON THE WAY OUT!! During my visit, a manager chastised me, "Cover your face, sir. ".

Now I have been all over the state. What is going on? I have seen the CDC say that masks do not work, and I listened to an infectious disease expert say the only masks that work were N95's. So what gives?

The LOCAL community city council went out on there own and passed this cover your face resolution because they have had a 100 cases and wait for it, 3 deaths!! They cited the CDC as the reason for the cover your face law. The same CDC chastising people for buying up masks claiming that they did not work.

And the Michigan governor said buying dry wall was okay but paint was not. I saw hair salons closed, sandwich shops closed, a gourmet ice cream shop closed, but DQ was open. Then there was a cash exchange place open, an oasis in a dry desert of closed stores. Say what? In the middle of all of the closed shops, a place changing dollars for pesos is open? Why?

Let's face it. We are in full retard mode now!!

Isolation is working? For what? The goal was to flatten the curve, and it has been flattened. That was a realistic goal. What is it now? Stopping the disease from spreading? That is totally unrealistic. Hell, why not isolate ourselves from all infections for the rest of time then?

Trump stopped all immigration. The virus is spreading domestically now. Why stop immigration now? It was for political not health purposes. I imagine children are saying they cannot eat their broccoli now because of the virus.

JJBee, we went trillions more in debt for this virus. We are in a worldwide depression. I heard a governor talk about a return to work when things are safe. When have things been totally safe? How about the devastation of the American oil industry? Hell, we got milk farmers pouring out their product due to a lack of demand? There are down sides to isolation, and no one is talking about them. It is all the same, "We will talk about that later."

Hell no, we need to be talking about that now. According to you, it is just my bet on oil that matters, never mind that I do not have one. If I were going to bet on oil in a positive way, it would not be now. You do not get the industry. It is too late. There is so much product it will take years for this amount to be worked off. The world has literally run out of places to store oil. And you are okay with that? The use of oil is a marker of the world's productivity and efficiency. So you are for that, huh, JJBee? Do you know what that means for the world? How stupid are you?

It is clear that at this point the economic damages are worse than the health ones. Economic damages lead to health damages. The curve is known. The disease for better or worse has been predictable, yet we do not hear that we need to lighten up now. It is about the second wave, reinfection, immunity certificates, vaccines. Where is the evidence this virus will not go away like all the corona viruses (I. E. Cold viruses) before it? There is none. It is just speculation.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2445320]You got a F in your predictions. I could say white and you would say black. Here is a true story ...……etc……... Where is the evidence this virus will not go away like all the corona viruses (I. E. Cold viruses) before it? There is none. It is just speculation.[/QUOTE]On that last time I checked colds were still around. They have never gone away. Now that is scary because if Covid-19 doesn't create an immunity (like the cold coronavirus) we are all in bad trouble.

But to your point. How many deaths in the US is okay with you. For the sake of the economy?

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2445320]It is clear that at this point the economic damages are worse than the health ones. Economic damages lead to health damages. The curve is known. The disease for better or worse has been predictable, yet we do not hear that we need to lighten up now. It is about the second wave, reinfection, immunity certificates, vaccines. Where is the evidence this virus will not go away like all the corona viruses (I. E. Cold viruses) before it? There is none. It is just speculation.[/QUOTE]Exactly this. The impact on the world economy through this "flatten the curve" scam is going to be 100 x as deadly as if we had just let the virus run it's course. . 01 x chance of death rate is more than acceptable.

It is clear that at this point the economic damages are worse than the health ones. Economic damages lead to health damages. The curve is known. The disease for better or worse has been predictable, yet we do not hear that we need to lighten up now. It is about the second wave, reinfection, immunity certificates, vaccines. Where is the evidence this virus will not go away like all the corona viruses (I. E. Cold viruses) before it? There is none. It is just speculation.

[URL]https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3081105/flattening-curve-wont-lead-coronavirus-turning-point-study-finds[/URL]

[QUOTE=CzarNicholas;2445420]It is clear that at this point the economic damages are worse than the health one[/QUOTE]Some perspective. The current cases of COVID-19 deaths in the US stands at 47,000. That's in one month with a lock down in most parts of the country. I ask you, if there wasn't a lock down how many more would die? Two? Three? Four times the amount? Are you saying that a few million dead won't have an economic impact?

So no its not clear the economic damage is more than the health damage. Without a lock down things would be much worse. You really think people will go to movie theatres and restaurants when millions of black body bags are showing up on the news?

EDIT: The evidence that the virus will come back in a second wave is based on science. Until we have herd immunity the virus will keep spreading like the flu pandemic did between 1918-1920

Seems like most of the posts of lately revolve around numbers and statistics and lot's of disagreements about what all of it means.

I saw two videos yesterday of how other Cities were managing things. In Wuhan in China apparently they have a scan code on your phone which has a green, yellow, and red color. Supposedly with the green code your cleared to go places where it's allowed, I wasn't clear on the yellow but I think it means you needed to be checked in some way before being allowed somewhere, and red meaning your were totally locked down. Maybe some other posters can explain it better.

Now let's go to Dubai in the UAE, they recently instigated a 24 hour curfew and you are only allowed out if you have obtained a permit. You apply on line and fill out a form with all kinds of questions like where your going like to a market or pharmacy, and so on, and how will you get there, by car or on foot. No exercising or walking the dog allowed. You enter the information with your ID and then are issued a permit with a time window when you can depart. The reporter said they got a response in five minutes so that part is good but lots of restrictions and a $ 1200 fine for violating the permit.

Now lets go to Southern California were I am, after seeing these two videos I become depressed thinking about how restricting this was being basically on the end of a leash, and what the future might be like. I live in a beach town and the entire beach, parking lot, pier and water are shutdown and the lifeguards are patrolling the sand to enforce it. I got in my car and drove down to the next beach town as I had heard it was open and wanted to see for myself. None of the public parking lots were open, but the beach was in full swing with surfers out in the water, along with beach chairs, umbrellas, and families playing in the sand like a completely normal summer day.

I am having a hard time reconciling all this, it's hard to fathom, scary, and defy's logic as to how things can be so different not only all over the World, but in the USA as well.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2445408]On that last time I checked colds were still around. They have never gone away. Now that is scary because if Covid-19 doesn't create an immunity (like the cold coronavirus) we are all in bad trouble.

But to your point. How many deaths in the US is okay with you. For the sake of the economy?[/QUOTE]How many lives are you ready to ruin? How many do you want to see homeless, heavily indebted, forced into bankruptcy or unemployment?

I've yet to see anyone answer those questions.

It's nature and Darwinism in practice, weak people die, but that doesn't mean that we all should stop living. To me it's really simple, people will die and that's tragic, but we can't continue to ruin the world economy. The show must go on and those who are old, fat or suffer from poor health should just stay at home.

A bit funny, the first corona related death in California occurred the 6th of February, more than a month before any lockdown. The virus had plenty of time to infect people.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2445408]
But to your point. How many deaths in the US is okay with you. For the sake of the economy?[/QUOTE]Given that the data on Covid-19 is absolute shit, how can you make a statement like that?

Let us put things in perspective, if the economy remains shut down, the amount of debt will skyrocket, and the economy WILL get worse. You think printing money to pay things is going to last forever?

If we open things, it is unknown what happens because the data on Covid-19 is like I said pure shit.

You act is if the economy is opened up now, the death rate HAS to go up. How do you know that? Hell, it might even go down because people are more mobile. As I pointed out, the total DEATH rate as of March 2020 was LOWER than the last five years.

If you really are so worried about viruses and death, why not teach all elementary school on line? Elementary schools and daycare are breeding grounds for influenza, but that is not part of the long term picture? Why not? Influenza and the pneumonia associated with it THIS YEAR ALONE still has killed more people than Covid-19.

This is not just about money for lives. You have 10 million people lose their job and health insurance and their health goes down. That is a fact.

The goal with isolation was to flatten the curve. Mission accomplished. Now what? Destroy the economy? For what purpose?

If the so called experts can't even make up their mind what good fucking masks are, what do they know about anything? Nobody knows nothing, but if you keep people in isolation, you destroy the economy, and a bad economy leads to bad health care outcomes and death. That IS known.

When do we stop with isolation? Why not just stay in isolation forever then? Hell, Covid might be here forever.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2445486]Some perspective. The current cases of COVID-19 deaths in the US stands at 47,000. That's in one month with a lock down in most parts of the country. I ask you, if there wasn't a lock down how many more would die? Two? Three? Four times the amount? Are you saying that a few million dead won't have an economic impact?[/QUOTE]The lockdown was NEVER, NEVER put in place to stop deaths. It was too slow the spread so the health care system was not overrun. What is going to stop the contagion is herd immunity.

I repeat, the data on Covid is absolute crap. Where do you get off saying isolation and the lockdown saved lives? That is such bullshit!!

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2445486]EDIT: The evidence that the virus will come back in a second wave is based on science. Until we have herd immunity the virus will keep spreading like the flu pandemic did between 1918-1920[/QUOTE]

Bullshit! We just found out today that the dates on the first US flu death were wrong, and we have absolutely no fucking clue how many people are immune right now. You doom and gloomers are literally pulling stuff out of your ass.

You know what you call "science" without data? Religion, and that is what you are preaching, doom and gloom just like a preacher does. I don't have faith in scientists without data, and neither should you.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2445537]...Where do you get off saying isolation and the lockdown saved lives?... [/QUOTE]There is an argument that flattening the infection curve actually increases number of deaths. Since this is a new disease, there was no immunity. Regardless of the shape of the infection curve, the area under it remains the same, which is the entire human population. Barring the invention of a miracle vaccine (unlikely for many reasons), we wouldn't achieve "herd immunity" until 80+% of humans developed antibodies. Therefore, from a cold blooded epidemiological POV, the best strategy would be to achieve the required percentage as quickly as possible. For this particular virus, which seems to mostly kill old, fat smokers, we should have infected the young and healthy as soon as possible, while isolating the old and immunocompromised. While this may have lead to the distressing sight of corpses in the street for a while, if probably would have resulted in lower infection rate overall.

Covid-19 probably is not the zombie apocalypse plague virus (although it still could be), but it is an RNA virus, which means that it is constantly mutating. So, the idea that we are going to beat this or "win" somehow is probably (without a miracle cure) wrong. The virus is similar in structure and transmission to cold viruses. The reason we don't have any vaccines against colds is that it is futile. RNA viruses mutate so quickly that by the time we developed a vaccine against a particular strain of cold, it would be gone and the vaccine would be useless (although it probably / maybe might offer some protection). I mean, there might be some miracle cure in the next coupla' / three years, but I kind of doubt it. Point is, this thing is going to be around for a while. We just have to learn to deal with it.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2445555]There is an argument that flattening the infection curve actually increases number of deaths. Since this is a new disease, there was no immunity.[/QUOTE]You're right about herd immunity but you're wrong about this. Flattening the curve is about lowering the number of people who end up in ICU so we don't end up with a situation like Italy. You can still achieve herd immunity over a number of waves. If you look at the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 herd immunity eventually won out after two years. The virus did mutate but eventually became much less lethal because its an evolutionary advantage not to kill your hosts for a strand of RNA.

A vaccine is possible. We have one for SARS-COV-1 (which caused the SARS pandemic).

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2445561]...its an evolutionary advantage not to kill your hosts for a strand of RNA...[/QUOTE]

Dude, you don't know what them viruses be thinkin'. It may be an evolutionary advantage not to kill the host too quickly. They don't care if you die -- they just want to make the most of theyselves before you do!

And. "...A vaccine is possible. We have one for SARS-COV-1... ".

Don't think so. Maybe something preclinical...

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2445537]
Where do you get off saying isolation and the lockdown saved lives? That is such bullshit!!
[/QUOTE]LOL where does YippieKayay get off saying that? You say that like he made it up. Like he is the only one in the world saying it. And then you attack him like he made it up. Every scientist in the world is saying this. And then you attack the scientist and accuse them of being political? Dude what planet do you live on? When in fact you need to get out of what every bubble of information you live in. I have been around researchers a lot in my adult life and when it comes to their particular science, "objective" is built into the scientific process and that is virtually their religion, if you argue with this it just proves to me that you have never been around these people and you are "guessing". Anyone who has ever studied anything related to science knows that science geeks are religiously true to the scientific method. Politics isn't going to fit in anywhere in the process.
One way you know its not political (besides the fact that these people work for the president) is that it is in every country besides some third-world countries and countries who got on the ball early with testing and contact tracing.

Since I know that most people know this it even makes me wonder if you are not just trolling with some of these comments - and to reply to YippieKayay as if he had just said something exrta ordinary when he just repeating what has been coming from Trumps own team at the White House - again it seems like trolling.

What YippieKayay said is exactly what everyone except whoever lives in your little bubble is saying. This is old but it is from the Surgeon General saying exactly what you were asking YippieKayay where he got off saying:

[URL]https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/surgeon-general-says-coronavirus-death-toll-projections-are-sobering-n1173866[/URL]

She asked Adams whether the country could see 96,000 people dying over the next several weeks.

"Those projections are definitely sobering, but they don't have to be our reality," Adams said in response.

"If we really do our part stay at home, social distance then we can flatten our curve even below those projections, but it really depends on all of us," he added.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2445567]Dude, you don't know what them viruses be thinkin'. It may be an evolutionary advantage not to kill the host too quickly. They don't care if you die -- they just want to make the most of theyselves before you do!

And. "...A vaccine is possible. We have one for SARS-COV-1... ".

Don't think so. Maybe something preclinical...[/QUOTE]There are at least 30 entities that are currently working on a vaccine for this Covid-19, Pharmaceutical companies and universities sometimes both working together.

[URL]https://www.foxnews.com/health/possible-coronavirus-vaccine-human-testing-trial[/URL]

[URL]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01179-x[/URL]

[URL]https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oxford-university-coronavirus-vaccine-to-begin-human-trials-on-thursday-as-uk-throws-everything-at-vital-breakthrough-2020-04-21[/URL]

There are quite a few small countries that have not gone into lockdown, but the population is so small that I don't think it's beneficial to look at them. I found three countries that have not had any required lockdowns, and each have about 10 million people - Belarus, Hungary, and Sweden.

Belarus: The number of cases and deaths have been at a plateau since the beginning. The reported number of deaths is 21 per one million population.

Hungary: The number of cases and deaths reached a peak and have been going down. The reported number of deaths is 23 per one million population.

Sweden: The number of cases seem to be at a plateau, but the number of deaths still has some high peaks. The reported number of deaths is 192 per one million population.

As a comparison, the number of deaths in the US is 144 per one million population.

Italy and Spain have been in a national lockdown since mid March. Their numbers of deaths per one million population are 415 and 464, respectively.

Personally, I think the lockdown and social distancing in the US have had an influence on the rise in numbers of cases and deaths, but they may have extended the time of the virus.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2445573]

Sweden: The number of cases seem to be at a plateau, but the number of deaths still has some high peaks. The reported number of deaths is 192 per one million population.[/QUOTE]Sweden is not lockdown. I read that they think they have reached the peak or close to and will achieve herd immunity in a few weeks.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2445567]Dude, you don't know what them viruses be thinkin'. It may be an evolutionary advantage not to kill the host too quickly. They don't care if you die -- they just want to make the most of theyselves before you do!

And. "...A vaccine is possible. We have one for SARS-COV-1... ".

Don't think so. Maybe something preclinical...[/QUOTE]We have a vaccine for SARS (2003 pandemic). Dr. Fauci even mentions it in several interviews when asked about a vaccine. The problem is it was developed too late and SARS disappeared by then.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2445537]The lockdown was NEVER, NEVER put in place to stop deaths..[/QUOTE]The vast majority of people would disagree with you:

The Wall Street Journal.

[URL]https://www.wsj.com/articles/yes-flatten-the-curve-11584571566[/URL]

UCLA.

[URL]https://www.uclahealth.org/workfiles/COVID-19/COVID-19_FlattenCurve-REV_3_24_20_FINAL.pdf[/URL]

Everyone else who explicitly says that social distancing flattens the curve to save lives:

[URL]https://blog.providence.org/blog-2/covid-19-what-does-it-mean-to-flatten-the-curve[/URL]

[URL]https://apnews.com/4984a419e7f0fbdadf93aa9cf84b64e6[/URL]

[URL]https://www.econlib.org/cost-benefit-analysis-of-flattening-the-curve/[/URL]

[URL]https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/see-how-flattening-the-curve-in-georgia-could-save-thousands-of-lives[/URL]

[URL]https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2020/04/03/five_facts_on_flattening_the_curve_of_coronavirus_spread_488197.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/op-ed/bs-ed-op-0413-coronavirus-flatten-curve-20200413-edqqowukp5gq7jbbkdpbky4eau-story.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.augustahealth.com/health-focused/why-we-social-distance-flattening-the-curve[/URL]

[URL]https://www.geisinger.org/health-and-wellness/wellness-articles/2020/03/18/16/20/covid-19-what-does-flattening-the-curve-mean[/URL]

[URL]https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/what-does-flatten-the-curve-mean-expert-explains-why-were-keeping-our-distance/289-f9286220-556e-4872-8d8a-0f685dfe74dc[/URL]

[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-what-does-flattening-the-curve-mean-and-why-it-matters.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/17/what-is-flattening-the-curve-and-why-does-it-matte.aspx[/URL]

[URL]https://www.wfaa.com/video/news/nation-world/what-does-flattening-the-curve-mean-to-combat-coronavirus/507-8f19851a-b105-420d-bb5c-841d0e04adce[/URL]

[QUOTE=Nounce;2445579]Sweden is not lockdown. I read that they think they have reached the peak or close to and will achieve herd immunity in a few weeks.[/QUOTE]Sweden is doing quite badly and suffering for their decision. They are currently just under 2 k dead and at 192 dead per million. The US is at 144 dead per million. Italy and Spain are both over 400 dead per million. That gives you an idea of where Sweden is headed unless they achieve herd immunity.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2445583]Sweden is doing quite badly and suffering for their decision. They are currently just under 2 k dead and at 192 dead per million. The US is at 144 dead per million. Italy and Spain are both over 400 dead per million. That gives you an idea of where Sweden is headed unless they achieve herd immunity.[/QUOTE]I think it is too early to tell which approach is better. Like you said, there could be second wave. I have a difficult time to guess what will happen with the total lock down approach for a prolong period of time. This is a question no one can answer.

Currently Sweden's number is better than Spain and Italy but not as good as US. The debate in a way is can you put a value or price on human life, freedom, or economic suffering? Sweden's has a very mild version of social distancing that still maintain some freedom.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2445567]Dude, you don't know what them viruses be thinkin'. It may be an evolutionary advantage not to kill the host too quickly. They don't care if you die -- they just want to make the most of theyselves before you do!

And. "...A vaccine is possible. We have one for SARS-COV-1... ".

Don't think so. Maybe something preclinical...[/QUOTE]The viruses sound a lot like humans. Don't care how many die as long as they can grab as much as they can.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2445583]Sweden is doing quite badly and suffering for their decision. They are currently just under 2 k dead and at 192 dead per million. The US is at 144 dead per million. Italy and Spain are both over 400 dead per million. That gives you an idea of where Sweden is headed unless they achieve herd immunity.[/QUOTE]The idea of herd immunity is floating around out there. And with respect to this virus we don't even know if having had it gives any or much or what kind of immunity. So depending on the answer to that question there may or may not even be a possibility of herd immunity.

Assuming there is, and with the known transmission of this virus, it would take about 70% of the population to have had it to get to the "herd immunity" stage.

So where are we now. In various places. Well, first of all we don't really know for sure. Because we don't know how many have actually had the virus due to non symptomatic people (and transmission).

But there are some hints. First, that in many places the focus on people with symptoms was somewhat effective at slowing it down and "flattening the curve". China being the first example that used this a lot to start with. But it was combined with quarantine as well. So hard to interpret. Plus it was information coming out of China early on which is somewhat suspect. Some other places focused on that as well, and it had reasonably good results. Also the fact that contact tracing worked well in the initial stages of the pandemic in various places where they were able to follow up and trace people that had it.

So those things suggest that non symptomatic cases, or at least spread, was not a huge factor.

But testing did show that people without symptoms had the virus, and the extent they were spreading it was not known (viral load was lower so there was some question). Then come "studies" in various places seeming to show that there are significantly more people with antibodies (and we're not sure how effective these are, but they are there) to this virus than expected. How many more? It is not clear yet, but it is being investigated very vigorously as it is very important to know. But some initial findings seem to be 2, 3,4,5 times as many as reported cases.

So. Herd immunity. We have reported cases at less than 1% of the population in the US. Currently around 2/10 ths of a percent I think. So, if there actually are say 5 times that we do get to 1%. And we need 70% for herd immunity. So you see the problem. With the infections that are there now. Even if new ones stopped today, there will be around 50,000 deaths in the US. So multiply that number by around 70 to get the number of deaths to pay for herd immunity. Sorry to be a pessimist. But that's how I see the numbers and the biology of this virus. I hope I'm wrong on that too.

The commercial airline industry is being decimated. Skip to 8:30 in video.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJmqssxtxe0&t=1s[/URL]


DOT.gov info


https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2020-04/CARES%20Final%20Order%20FINAL.PDF

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2445535] As I pointed out, the total DEATH rate as of March 2020 was LOWER than the last five years.[/QUOTE]Irrespective of your use of the cap key this source shows the death rate in the US has steadily increased over the last five years up to this year. Scroll down, check right column.

[URL]https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate[/URL]

Something tells me that this is likely a better source than your Bulgarian investor blog. That said, hollering, insulting, and calling the "data" and analysis of well credentialed and respected doctors and scientists "shit" doesn't make it "shit. ".

[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_by_assertion[/URL]

Theatrics do not equate with substance. In fact such establishes nothing other than that you know how to yell and wave your arms.

Promise me you won't cry. I don't think I could take that. I did warn you, so put on your big girl panties and take it. Saturday I'll take the time to do what I said last week, go through all your posts and demonstrate beyond any doubt how full of shit you've been. The resulting cognitive dissonance should be exciting.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2445320]You got a F in your predictions. I could say white and you would say black.[/QUOTE]You keep coming back to this. Why? We've been over that. I accepted my mistakes and moved on from something I said was probably a mistake when I wrote it. Do you think it bothers me in any way? I freely admit my errors. What do you do? That's right. You move the goalposts, cherry pick, argue from ignorance and go completely loony in the process.

Why didn't you quote me on vaccinations after your insane alternative medicine, anti-vaccine babble? Especially since you started off in this thread talking about how a vaccine would make all the predictions false? Instead, all you're left with is "you were wrong once, nahnahnah. " I'm curious if you stick your tongue out at me when you're writing?

[QUOTE]Here is a true story by the way. I walked into a grocery store, and I have been to several in several different cities all over the state I have lived in. I was told, "Do you have a mask?" by one of four people on mask patrol in the front of the grocery store. I said that I did not and asked if they had any for sale. They did not. I was told that I could use a T-shirt, and I went back to my hotel room and got one. On the plane, I had no mask on and no one said anything. In front of the store, there were four people standing around making sure that I had something covering my face. The T-shirt practically blinded me and I was a hazard to myself and others but I was not spreading "the virus"..[/QUOTE]The plane you were on, was it located in on near the grocery store? If not, how is it relevant?

If you hadn't been in such a panic over oil prices, maybe you could have paid attention. You could have been aware that people were wearing masks and figured out a solution. Instead, you blindly stumble along and blame everyone else because you couldn't figure out how to fabricate something every fucking 6 year old knows how to make. You've got the ability to fly pussy all over the world, but can't figure out how to cover your mouth?

[QUOTE]Now I have been all over the state. What is going on? I have seen the CDC say that masks do not work, and I listened to an infectious disease expert say the only masks that work were N95's. So what gives?[/QUOTE]What gives is that you're completely out of touch with reality. People who work in close proximity of infected persons need full PPE, including N95 masks. It's to protect them from being infected.

Regular masks, surgical masks, painter's masks, homemade masks aren't sufficient for people getting face to face with infected patients. Their purpose is to reduce the amount of live virus potentially infected people distribute. The mask you wear, or would wear if you were smart enough to know how to use scissors, is to help protect others. The masks they ARE wearing, because they clearly aren't panicked over oil prices, are to help protect you.

[QUOTE]The LOCAL community city council went out on there own and passed this cover your face resolution because they have had a 100 cases and wait for it, 3 deaths!! They cited the CDC as the reason for the cover your face law. The same CDC chastising people for buying up masks claiming that they did not work.[/QUOTE]If your local city council did something, maybe you should vote for someone else next time.

Tell me. Did the local city council mandate the use of N95 masks? The CDC isn't complaining about people buying masks or making masks. They're complaining about people, who have no need for them, hoarding N95 masks. Quit cherry picking.

[QUOTE]And the Michigan governor said buying dry wall was okay but paint was not. I saw hair salons closed, sandwich shops closed, a gourmet ice cream shop closed, but DQ was open. Then there was a cash exchange place open, an oasis in a dry desert of closed stores. Say what? In the middle of all of the closed shops, a place changing dollars for pesos is open? Why?[/QUOTE]It's like dealing with a child.

Fixing a damaged wall or ceiling is essential. Painting an undamaged room isn't.

Ever worked in the restaurant business? Have you ever actually worked? Some restaurants are set up for takeout, some for dine-in and some for both. Converting a dine-in restaurant to a takeout restaurant is a really bad investment. All DQ needed to do was tape off the dining room. Of course they're still open. Ice cream shops closed? Go to the grocery. Buy ice cream. Eat ice cream. Problem solved. Hair salons closed? Do you even have hair? I mean after tearing your hair out over the oil prices? Go to Walmart, buy a trimmer, shave it off. Another problem solved.

A cash exchange place open? I think you mean a check cashing / payday loan place. Have I called you clueless yet? There are these people in the world called "poor people. " Sometimes poor people don't have enough money. Banks won't loan them money so they're stuck getting payday loans and paying insane interest whenever they are short on money. Some poor people don't even have a bank account, so they have to pay to get their stimulus checks cashed. It's like you live on another fucking planet.

[QUOTE]Let's face it. We are in full retard mode now!![/QUOTE]There was a brief glimmer of hope, but then I realized you'll never face it. You'll just change your story and pretend.

[QUOTE]Isolation is working? For what? The goal was to flatten the curve, and it has been flattened. That was a realistic goal. What is it now? Stopping the disease from spreading? That is totally unrealistic. Hell, why not isolate ourselves from all infections for the rest of time then?[/QUOTE]Have you been drinking? You might want to cut back, because 2 more sips and you're going to be hugging everyone and telling them how much you love them.

Try this at home. Take a razor blade and slice into an artery. See how fast the blood comes out? Now apply direct pressure. Notice how the flow of blood decreases? Will everything be fine if you remove the direct pressure? Sorry. I should have explained how to make a cravat out of an old t-shirt first. You might bleed to death before you figure out how to do that.

That's flattening the curve. Once you've reduced the blood loss, you keep reducing the blood loss until there's a solution to the problem. If you stop doing what you're doing, whenever you have a little success, the problem grows exponentially.

[QUOTE]Trump stopped all immigration. The virus is spreading domestically now. Why stop immigration now? It was for political not health purposes. I imagine children are saying they cannot eat their broccoli now because of the virus.[/QUOTE]Trump effectively stopped something that has already effectively stopped to pander to his base. Nothing more. Has no bearing on anything.

[QUOTE]JJBee, we went trillions more in debt for this virus. We are in a worldwide depression. I heard a governor talk about a return to work when things are safe. When have things been totally safe? How about the devastation of the American oil industry? Hell, we got milk farmers pouring out their product due to a lack of demand? There are down sides to isolation, and no one is talking about them. It is all the same, "We will talk about that later."[/QUOTE]Ah. There's that oil panic creeping back in. For someone not worried about it at all, you sure do worry about it a lot.

Ever worked on a farm? Know any American farmers? I don't mean corporate farmers, pulling in millions in subsidies each year. I mean family farmers, working the same land their family has worked for 200 years? They aren't dumping milk. That's corporate dairies dumping milk. Local dairies are making cheese. Local farmers are preparing to get back in the fields. The ones I know aren't panicked. They're actually feeling good about oil prices. It brings their cost way down.

In what way has the American oil industry been devastated? You mean they have to cut back on pumping oil? That's not exactly devastation. I think you're talking about the devastation to the people who speculate on oil. Yep. I can see they might be devastated. Personally, I'm laughing my ass off.

When diesel was hitting $4. 50 per gallon and up in 2008 were you crying over the devastation to the American trucking industry? Over the past year, have you been in a rage over all the trucking companies that have gone under? You see, when people like you get the oil market into a feeding frenzy, you drive small trucking companies into bankruptcy. You put people out of work. You cause them to lose their health insurance and sometimes their lives. I've got no problem with that. But don't expect me to shed a year because you are worried about becoming one of the poor people.

[QUOTE]Hell no, we need to be talking about that now. According to you, it is just my bet on oil that matters, never mind that I do not have one. If I were going to bet on oil in a positive way, it would not be now. You do not get the industry. It is too late. There is so much product it will take years for this amount to be worked off. The world has literally run out of places to store oil. And you are okay with that? The use of oil is a marker of the world's productivity and efficiency. So you are for that, huh, JJBee? Do you know what that means for the world? How stupid are you? [/QUOTE]Let's find out. You'll need to come to Indianapolis, because I don't have the free time to come to you. I'm more than willing to find out how stupid I am. We'll find a psychologist who performs aptitude testing. We'll pick a date and time and we'll both take the same battery of tests. I'll pay for both tests. When we get the scores, we will settle the bet. Loser pays for the tests plus the amount of the bet.

Now I don't have a lot of money to bet, but I have a lot of confidence in the results. How much confidence do you have? If you're nervous, I'll do a straight $500 bet. If you're confident, give me 10 to 1 odds and I'll go $1000. If you're certain you'll annihilate me, make it 100 to 1 on $5000. Worst case you lose $500 k. If you win, I'll even buy you a trophy and introduce you to probably the most beautiful woman you've ever seen, and she's looking for a sugar daddy. Right now. In Medellin. 18. No shit.

Do I know what it means to the world? Yes. It means very little to the world. You use markers of efficiency and productivity to decide on where and how much to invest. You know how most of the world measures things?

When I was a kid it was the "Cube steak law", now it's the "Pork Prosperity Index. " Back in my grandparents youth it was the "Liver Principle. ".

Until the early 20th century butchers gave away soup bones, liver, suet and other meat byproducts. The liver was for people to feed their dogs, suet for the birds and bones to make soup and broth. During the roaring 20's, while the economy was soaring, the regular people were having trouble feeding their families. So they took to eating the free liver. They found ways to get by on the cheaper stuff. When I was a kid, it was cube steak. Take the cheapest cuts of meat, run them through a tenderizer 3 times, roll in flour and fry it up, then cover it with gravy. The kids think they're getting steak and the parents stretch the dollars a bit further. These days, everyone switched to pork and chicken.

The economy you're so in a fret over has almost no effect on most of the world. Most of us notice no difference between a recession and a boom economy. Are we getting a free turkey from the company this Thanksgiving? Will we get a $200 Christmas bonus? Will my raise be 0. 5% or 1%? That's how the rest of the world lives. If their lives get worse, your life gets better. Downsize? Stock price goes up. Offshore? Profits go up.

You're worried about trillions in debt, but who pays for it? Where do the budget cuts go? And where do the tax cuts go?

As for the oil surplus, we had the same problem in 2009. Last I checked it didn't result in the end of civilization. Maybe I missed it.

[QUOTE]It is clear that at this point the economic damages are worse than the health ones. Economic damages lead to health damages. The curve is known. The disease for better or worse has been predictable, yet we do not hear that we need to lighten up now. It is about the second wave, reinfection, immunity certificates, vaccines. Where is the evidence this virus will not go away like all the corona viruses (I. E. Cold viruses) before it? There is none. It is just speculation.[/QUOTE]If it's clear, demonstrate it. Put it down in black and white. Saying "it's clear" is bullshit. It's not even clear how many deaths we've had from the virus. Now we know there were deaths before the first official death. We don't know how many, but Indiana is speculating only 100 for the state. If so, that's a jump of 16%.

Indiana has also just announced they'll begin including nursing home deaths in the tally. How much will that bump the deaths? They still aren't including deaths in jails and prisons. Until it's clear how many have already died, it can't be clear the economic damage is worse.

The disease has been predictable? Really? So. It was predictable when you said it's not as bad as the flu that has killed 24,000? It was predictable when you said it wasn't as bad as a bad flu season? It was predictable when you said it's not as bad as the worst flu season in many years? Will it be predictable when you say it's not as bad as Hiroshima? If it's so fucking predictable, please explain why you keep changing your predictions?

[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2445581]The vast majority of people would disagree with you:
[/QUOTE]Do you read your own links, Mojo? This is what was written:

"Health experts say it's crucial to "flatten the curve" of coronavirus transmissions to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed with critically ill patients. Flattening the curve might prolong the pandemic, scientists say, but fewer people would die because they would receive better medical treatment. ".

Seeing as how there is no official treatment for Covid, what this phrase refers to is that the health care system and its number of ventilators not be over run, which was the case in Italy. That did not happen. The curve was flattened. If you want to save social distancing saved lives because our health care system was not overrun, that is fine, but it is irrelevant to right now.

Seeing as how the "vast majority" of people disagree with me, tell me what the plan is of the "vast majority" of people because I do not think that they have one. There was a goal before, and that was to not overwhelm the health care system. Keeping people in isolation per one of YOUR links prolongs the pandemic. Is that what you want? Is that the goal now?

I was in Mexico when there was talk of closing the USA-Mexican border, so I came back early. It turns out there have been 50 deaths in all the counties in Texas and New Mexico that border Mexico. That is less than the flu and 50 deaths due to violence would be a good weekend in Juarez, Mexico.

The entire Mexican border thing was bullshit, and there was no reason for it. It was an example of completely bird brained isolation.

So I am in this border town on the USA Side where there is this stupid mask policy in place, but NOBODY HAS ANY MASKS FOR SALE! This is government at its worst.

The USA Government puts out the statement that you should not go to Mexico for tourism or recreation purposes, but nobody asks me why I am in Mexico when I go. Again, on the Mexico side, temperatures are taken but not the USA Side. I am completely floored by this.

Anyway, I am walking along now in Mexico. And you know what they are selling in Mexico in abundance on every street corner? You got it. Fucking masks by the ton! I buy two for $5 and they are more comfortable than any standard masks I have worn.

So once again, we are at another full retard moment.

You isolation types do not understand the amount of red tape you have to go through to be able to import items like masks from Mexico into the USA, and the companies who have done the legwork to import things are now going broke. Trade, oil production, milk production is not just a faucet that you can just turn off and on.

It was not just masks either. A grocery store in Mexico had put toilet paper, bleach, and baby wipes right to the front of the story. I looked for and could not find bleach the other day in the USA When I went shopping either.

So let me ask, Mojo, did the USA Isolating itself from Mexico save lives too? Was that something your famed "vast majority" of people were for? Because to me, it looks like a really stupid thing to have been done.

[QUOTE=Zeos1;2445643]The idea of herd immunity is floating around out there. And with respect to this virus we don't even know if having had it gives any or much or what kind of immunity. So depending on the answer to that question there may or may not even be a possibility of herd immunity.

So where are we now. In various places. Well, first of all we don't really know for sure. Because we don't know how many have actually had the virus due to non symptomatic people (and transmission).

But there are some hints.

So those things suggest that non symptomatic cases, or at least spread, was not a huge factor.

But testing did show that people without symptoms had the virus, and the extent they were spreading it was not known (viral load was lower so there was some question). Then come "studies" in various places seeming to show that there are significantly more people with antibodies (and we're not sure how effective these are, but they are there) to this virus than expected. How many more? It is not clear yet, but it is being investigated very vigorously as it is very important to know. But some initial findings seem to be 2, 3,4,5 times as many as reported cases.

So. Herd immunity. We have reported cases at less than 1% of the population in the US. Currently around 2/10 ths of a percent I think. So, if there actually are say 5 times that we do get to 1%. And we need 70% for herd immunity. So you see the problem. With the infections that are there now. Even if new ones stopped today, there will be around 50,000 deaths in the US. So multiply that number by around 70 to get the number of deaths to pay for herd immunity. Sorry to be a pessimist. But that's how I see the numbers and the biology of this virus. I hope I'm wrong on that too.[/QUOTE]So you agree the data sucks, and you are going by "hints". Then why do you ask me how many deaths I am willing to risk by ending isolation policies now?

What you isolation types do not get is that you want to destroy wealth and jobs based on shit data, hints, and "studies", and that destruction of wealth may result in greater deaths.

Was the USA Isolating itself from Mexico the right thing to do? Was Colombia shutting its borders the right thing to do? Should they open things up now?

If nobody knows nothing, and that is really where we are right now, then we should return things to normal and see what happens. People are not going to remove themselves from isolation right away anyway now.

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2445583]Sweden is doing quite badly and suffering for their decision. They are currently just under 2 k dead and at 192 dead per million. The US is at 144 dead per million. Italy and Spain are both over 400 dead per million. That gives you an idea of where Sweden is headed unless they achieve herd immunity.[/QUOTE]Sweden is doing great! Only 2000 dead, we are able to be out in the beautiful weather (20 degrees Celsius and nothing but clear skies), eat out at restaurants and go for a jog. I'm loving it! Who's suffering? I would bet that USA is suffering immensely, 22 million people lost their jobs, waiting in line to receive food like hobos. That's not life, that's a nightmare.

I'm really happy to be living in Sweden and not being imprisoned.

When will you come out? 2025?

These may flail their arms the most, yell the louded in monger forums but thankfully the overwhelming majority of communical disease specialists are against them, as are the people.

As Harry Truman said, "the only thing new in the world is the history we don't already know. ".

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/opinions/denver-1918-lesson-avlon/index.html[/URL]

Also here is an interesting article on the potential for a second wave.

[URL]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/will-there-be-second-wave-of-coronavirus-[/URL]

Stay safe gentlemen.

There's an article in El Colombiano today explaining the rules for the estimated 500,000 people who get to return to work on Monday the 27th which includes every employee being registered thru their employer and the government with starting times / locations, all Civica cards used for the Metro / Buses must be registered in the data base established for the employees authorized to return to work, geo-tracking, and if two or more people get sick / virus the company gets shutdown or workplace gets shut down for two weeks. And the METRO will be operating at one third capacity to start with some type of re-organizing the lines (that will be interesting). I may have some of the details wrong as I understood about three quarters of the article.

Kind of sounds like Medellin is taking their cue from what the Asian Countries have been doing similarly is some ways.

Hi guys not sure if this is in the right spot but I'm looking at a new credit card and was wondering if Amex is accepted across the board in Colombia or if I'm better off just going with Visa?

[QUOTE=DeepXliv;2446276]Hi guys not sure if this is in the right spot but I'm looking at a new credit card and was wondering if Amex is accepted across the board in Colombia or if I'm better off just going with Visa?[/QUOTE]Bancolombia accepts Amex. Other banks won't. It's not as common. Visa is accepted universally.

But why is this in the COVID thread?

[QUOTE=YippieKayay;2446286]Bancolombia accepts Amex. Other banks won't. It's not as common. Visa is accepted universally.

But why is this in the COVID thread?[/QUOTE]Okay appreciate it, LOL didn't know where to put it.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2446336]I got a ticket to Brazil already. There are no travel restrictions there at all.
[/QUOTE] Oh how I wish that was true.

[QUOTE=Balboa;2446353]Oh how I wish that was true.[/QUOTE]I wondered why American Airlines let me buy the ticket if it were true. A Brazilian chica told me there were no restrictions which was not right I see.

https://br.usembassy.gov/health-alert-march-28-2020/

On March 27, Brazil announced the closure of its borders, beginning on March 30,2020 for 30 days.

So American let me buy a ticket for mid May, and I guess is assuming the travel ban will not be extended. American allows you to change flight ticket dates now without penalty so even if the travel ban is extended, I will just change my date. The women there are as desperate for cash if not even more so than the ones in Colombia, and it is almost 6 reals to the dollar now with all the political bullshit going on there.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2446360]I wondered why American Airlines let me buy the ticket if it were true. A Brazilian chica told me there were no restrictions which was not right I see.

https://br.usembassy.gov/health-alert-march-28-2020/

On March 27, Brazil announced the closure of its borders, beginning on March 30,2020 for 30 days.

So American let me buy a ticket for mid May, and I guess is assuming the travel ban will not be extended. American allows you to change flight ticket dates now without penalty so even if the travel ban is extended, I will just change my date. The women there are as desperate for cash if not even more so than the ones in Colombia, and it is almost 6 reals to the dollar now with all the political bullshit going on there.[/QUOTE]Exactly!

AA is hoping they lift the restriction.

As you probably know, the president of Brazil is not too keen on the lockdown, so you never know.

However, it seems as things are getting worse there, not better.

Virus issues and politically.

We'll see soon.

[QUOTE=Queens35;2446378]Some doctors in California are claiming that natural cause deaths are being reported as Covid-19 to skew the numbers. Somebody is benefiting from this and making serious cash. This virus is not as big a threat as it's made out to be. It's like the flu, no need to worry for a healthy person. Staying indoors is actually making our immune systems weaker.[/QUOTE]Here is what NYC did on April 14: New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: "decedent had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death "COVID-19" or an equivalent".

After we get through this crisis, I think we will see large decreases in reported deaths due to heart disease, cancer, strokes, and diabetes during this crisis. As you said, I think there are people benefiting from the number of Covid-19 deaths. During a news conference a few weeks ago, Dr. Fauci mentioned some dollar amounts that some entities (I think hospitals) were getting for each Covid-19 patient. I wasn't paying much attention, and I can't find any of that information.

American let you buy a ticket because they need the money. You gave them an interest free loan that they may or may not need to fulfill with a flight. If they cancel the flight you reserved you can get a refund. Last month American and other airlines offered 20% bonuses to people who accepted vouchers instead of demanding the refunds that the US government required airlines to provide after there were many complaints.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2446360]I wondered why American Airlines let me buy the ticket if it were true. A Brazilian chica told me there were no restrictions which was not right I see.

https://br.usembassy.gov/health-alert-march-28-2020/

On March 27, Brazil announced the closure of its borders, beginning on March 30,2020 for 30 days.

So American let me buy a ticket for mid May, and I guess is assuming the travel ban will not be extended. American allows you to change flight ticket dates now without penalty so even if the travel ban is extended, I will just change my date. The women there are as desperate for cash if not even more so than the ones in Colombia, and it is almost 6 reals to the dollar now with all the political bullshit going on there.[/QUOTE]

I have a other things to do in life than tune in here every day and wade trough all the political crap that people want to spew on here. If you have any information about Travel / Colombia do to the Corona virus than post it but if you want to continue spewing your political bullshit do it somewhere else. I started this thread so that people who were interested in finding information related mongering in Medellin would not have to wad through all the bull shit that I knew would follow but now when there is an occasional update about what is actually being announced in Colombia regarding travel it is buried in the horseshit of the politics of arguing so I am deleting all the shit that is not related to Travel / Colombia and while I am sure that this will piss off everyone, I could give a shit less. Any single one of you is able to go start your own thread.

If people want to continue to argue and discuss other subjects someone else can start a thread/blog or you can meet up over in the After having been messaged by members of this board that I have been reading for years, members who have contributed a lot of great information over the years to the forum and after just getting tired of reading all theses posts that drown out the intended purpose of the thread I made these actions.

As anyone can see below I deleted posts back until there were actually posts related to travel on here. I am tired of reading all the back and forth and going in circles, I started to take the time to delete every single post that was not related to Travel but that would be too time consuming. But it is now easy to see that if someone does post about travel, that post would get drowned out and pushed back by all the other back and forth crap.

I am aware that it is possible that we are at a stalemate for a while related to travel into Colombia but I hope that when something does break good our way that members can see it posted here and not have to wade through unrealted information to get therel.

I take 75% of responsibility for letting this thread get off subject and not stepping in sooner to try to correct it. I should have maybe not put COVID in the name but the travel restrictions are related to COVID.

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2446588]American let you buy a ticket because they need the money. You gave them an interest free loan that they may or may not need to fulfill with a flight. If they cancel the flight you reserved you can get a refund. Last month American and other airlines offered 20% bonuses to people who accepted vouchers instead of demanding the refunds that the US government required airlines to provide after there were many complaints.[/QUOTE]I haven't tried again yet but as of Sunday THIS week, united still won't allow tickets to be sold. They fail you out at the very end during payment. I was thinking for July but I think that would be too soon to really have any fun. People will relax by October, but united won't let me buy even that far out! . at least not yet.

The price is not the best. A Miami / Medellin roundtrip on American is available for purchase Whether or not the governments will allow it by then is another matter. I share this so no one misinterprets United's policy as something official across the board:

[blue][Non-English text deleted by Admin because the text is messed up.][/blue]

Miami, FL a Medellin, Colombia.

Lunes, 8 de junio de 2020.

7:45 PM.

10:05 PM.

3 h 20 m.

Sin escalas.

AA 923 738-Boeing 737.

Cabina Principal.

Retorno.

Medellin, Colombia a Miami, FL.

Viernes, 12 de junio de 2020.

12:30 PM.

5:05 PM.

3 h 35 m.

Sin escalas.

AA 924 738-Boeing 737.

Cabina Principal.

[QUOTE=ShawMan74;2447989]I haven't tried again yet but as of Sunday THIS week, united still won't allow tickets to be sold. They fail you out at the very end during payment. I was thinking for July but I think that would be too soon to really have any fun. People will relax by October, but united won't let me buy even that far out! . at least not yet.[/QUOTE][b][u]EDITOR'S NOTE[/u]:[/b] [blue]This report was edited to [u]remove text not in English[/u]. While I encourage contributions from all volunteers, the Forum is an English-only website. Please do not post reports in any language other than English. If you wish to post text in any language other than English, then please include a full English translation.[i]Thanks![/i][/blue]

My friend in Medellin told me via whatsapp that this morning the quoranteen has been extended for 2 more weeks which would be the end of this month, May. They are playing things much safer there. I hope it works and works fast. Costa Rica is serious too and it is paying off as far as infections and deaths are concerned.

Location: Bogotá, Cali, Cartagena, Medellin.

Event: New Humanitarian Flights from Medellin (May 13), Bogotá (May 16), Cartagena (May 17), and Cali (May 18) to Fort Lauderdale. Operated by Spirit Airlines.

The USA Embassy is pleased to announce Spirit Airlines will operate four additional humanitarian flights. One flight will depart on May 13 from José María seeórdova International Airport (MDE) in Medellin. A second flight will depart on May 16 from El Dorado International Airport (BOG) in Bogotá. A third flight will depart on May 17 from Rafael andúñez International Airport (CTG) in Cartagena. The fourth flight will depart on May 18 from Alfonso Bonilla Aragóand International Airport (CLO) in Cali. All flights arrive at Fort Lauderdale. Hollywood International Airport (FLL) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

These flights have been made available to allow USA Citizens and Legal Permanent Residents to return to the United States. Please contact Spirit Airlines directly for seat availability, reservations, and pricing information.

These flights can only be booked online. (Please note the Cartagenca flight will be available online shortly.).

If you are interested in returning to the United States, please take advantage of these flights. The USA Government cannot guarantee the ability to arrange flights indefinitely. USA Citizens should return immediately to the United States, unless you are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period.

If you purchase a ticket on one of these flights, and encounter difficulties traveling to the airport from your location, please contact us at [EMAIL]ColombiaEvac@state.gov[/EMAIL] or (57) 1 275-2000. We have received reports that taxis and bus companies continue to operate, albeit at reduced and limited schedules. If you are located outside of either Bogotá or Cartagena, and believe you will have difficulty reaching the airport due to travel restrictions, please provide us with your travel information (name, passport number, what flight you have reservations on) and, if applicable, information about your driver (name, cedula, vehicle make / model and license plate number), as well as the route of ground transport. Starting point, destination, stops.

There is another Spirit flight from Medellin to Fort Lauderdale May 23. You can book on the Spirit web site. The May 13 Medellin to Ft. Lauderdale flight is not available on the web site, probably because it is sold out.

[QUOTE=LoveItHere69;2448837]Location: Bogot, Cali, Cartagena, Medellin.

Event: New Humanitarian Flights from Medellin (May 13), Bogot (May 16), Cartagena (May 17), and Cali (May 18) to Fort Lauderdale. Operated by Spirit Airlines.

The USA Embassy is pleased to announce Spirit Airlines will operate four additional humanitarian flights. One flight will depart on May 13 from Jos Mara seerdova International Airport (MDE) in Medellin. A second flight will depart on May 16 from El Dorado International Airport (BOG) in Bogot. A third flight will depart on May 17 from Rafael andez International Airport (CTG) in Cartagena. The fourth flight will depart on May 18 from Alfonso Bonilla Aragand International Airport (CLO) in Cali. All flights arrive at Fort Lauderdale. Hollywood International Airport (FLL) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

These flights have been made available to allow USA Citizens and Legal Permanent Residents to return to the United States. Please contact Spirit Airlines directly for seat availability, reservations, and pricing information.

These flights can only be booked online. (Please note the Cartagenca flight will be available online shortly.).

If you are interested in returning to the United States, please take advantage of these flights. The USA Government cannot guarantee the ability to arrange flights indefinitely. USA Citizens should return immediately to the United States, unless you are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period..[/QUOTE]