American Politics

[Elvis 2008]

I assure you he did it Elvis. He stalled out after that and I suspect 20 years or more later his net worth is less than $10 million. The secret was leverage. Nominally he was working for his brokerage firm, which allowed him to get around limits on margin lending. But in reality he was trading for his own account and paying commissions to the brokerage. An example, when a company was being taken over, some institutions are too lazy to do the paperwork to accept the tender offer. On the last day of the tender, when you knew with 100% certainty it would happen, shares might be trading for $19.90 when the tender price was $20. His firm would loan him $20 million or $30 million to buy shares. He submits the paperwork. His firm gets a per share commission and interest on the borrowed funds and he ends up with a good profit. That's just one example. He was often doing things that were riskier. His firm had enough confidence in him that it was willing to loan him the money..

But Tiny, that is not advisable or open to most people. Unless you have lock solid information, one bad deal with that much leverage and you can lose everything.

He says he stopped because a lot of his strategies didnt work so well because algorithmic trading was beating him to the punch and shaving the profits. He probably got a little lazy after he had a decent nest egg. He could have paid a programmer to implement some of his strategies, and pursued others without one. And he still does from time to time, but not as successfully as in the past. These days HFT firms pay millions to have slightly faster connections to the exchanges, and have large teams of computer scientists and PhD scientists, mathematicians and engineers. Its hard to compete with that.

Sure, if you have a microsecond advantage and you can lever up big like your friend did, you can cash in huge, but the best investors do not care about saving a penny or even a tenth of a penny when buying a position. Thing is when you have a model like this it gets copied by others and then it no longer works.

But the best moves I ever made were not because of some math or science. In fact, my first mistake was being secure in the math of investing and seeing how people were allowed to lie about the numbers. Only after I corrected for what were allowed lies and not allowed lies did the math work.

The funny part is going to shareholder meetings. Yeah, supposedly, the information shared there cannot be something investors not going to the meetings can get. In reality, I got to see the attitudes of those in the companies. I met CEOs who were so stupid or crooked, I would not let them manage a Dairy Queen or lend them a dime, and on the other end, I met some guys sharp as fuck. I got to see if workers thought that shareholders should be respected or whether they were out to get every dime they could.

That is why I am so skeptical of your friend. I am not saying he did not do it. Maybe he did come up with a better mouse trap and had the leverage to make it big, but I mean when you talk about acquisitions and the like, just one lie, one regulator, one bad bolt or nut somewhere, and the whole thing comes apart.

In fact, the entire basis of this bull market is one not of math and physics but one of faith. AI is going to do something great. That is not math or science. It is religion, and that is why I am so uncomfortable with it.

[Newton York]

When life gets you down cause we're trapped in this shitty disunited States of America, I watch this to make myself feel better.

This is how I remember Bangkok, a bright, sunny, highly saturated colors, a place full of joy and happy people. And hot babes dancing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfqJyKm20Z4

When you feel like you want to catch that bus to unalive town, that video always helps me a bit.

[The Cane]

The full, fair, and true narrative: https://www.theguardian.com/business...-biden-economy

[Tiny 12]

Yes, but be careful what you wish for. Very, very careful. LOL.

I wasn't even looking for that. In fact, I left USA and moved to Thailand in order to escape all that real GF shit. It just landed in my lap and I was too weak to reject the offer and conditions. It requires much tweaking to get it back to my preferred way of life but with the mostly nice addition of a real GF.

Well there's a big, beautiful world out there. Let's hope Newton gets out of his funk and starts to enjoy it more.

[Tiny 12]

Tiny, I went to a conference of legendary investors. No one had returns like that. It makes no sense for somebody that good to stop.

Yeah, and they are all private too and not taking money from outside investors. Funny how that works. The two funds they have opened up to the public were stinkers. They are huge political donors which smells a lot like the scammer SBF was.

The problem I have with this whole Renaissance story is that they brought in math guys and came up with a formula. Investors do not work like that. The problem with the efficient market hypothesis among other things is it does not factor in emotions. Short term, the market is driven by greed and fear, and math guys are not very emotionally well tuned. These Rennaissance guys are doing something sleazy.

I assure you he did it Elvis. He stalled out after that and I suspect 20 years or more later his net worth is less than $10 million. The secret was leverage. Nominally he was working for his brokerage firm, which allowed him to get around limits on margin lending. But in reality he was trading for his own account and paying commissions to the brokerage. An example, when a company was being taken over, some institutions are too lazy to do the paperwork to accept the tender offer. On the last day of the tender, when you knew with 100% certainty it would happen, shares might be trading for $19.90 when the tender price was $20. His firm would loan him $20 million or $30 million to buy shares. He submits the paperwork. His firm gets a per share commission and interest on the borrowed funds and he ends up with a good profit. That's just one example. He was often doing things that were riskier. His firm had enough confidence in him that it was willing to loan him the money

He says he stopped because a lot of his strategies didnt work so well because algorithmic trading was beating him to the punch and shaving the profits. He probably got a little lazy after he had a decent nest egg. He could have paid a programmer to implement some of his strategies, and pursued others without one. And he still does from time to time, but not as successfully as in the past. These days HFT firms pay millions to have slightly faster connections to the exchanges, and have large teams of computer scientists and PhD scientists, mathematicians and engineers. It’s hard to compete with that.

[EihTooms]

If the "much worse than the worst case scenario" occurs -- you get laid off and NVDA and your other shares go to "0" (which they won't) -- you can go to Bangkok and live a pretty darn good life on social security and pensions. Now, you may not be able to afford a 2000 Baht a night bar-girl budget. BUT, Tooms found some young vixen who worships the ground he walks on and he doesn't appear to be paying her much, if anything. If he can do it you can too.

Seriously, you should get some serious exercise if you're not already. It really improves your mood.

Yes, but be careful what you wish for. Very, very careful. LOL.

I wasn't even looking for that. In fact, I left USA and moved to Thailand in order to escape all that real GF shit. It just landed in my lap and I was too weak to reject the offer and conditions. It requires much tweaking to get it back to my preferred way of life but with the mostly nice addition of a real GF.

[Tiny 12]

That Medium article about 34 k a year really puts things into perspective Tiny12. I appreciate it, so many times when I'm down, and I'm thinking of finally eating that bullet, I try to remind myself there are people way worse off than me out there. Last coupla months I even try to remind myself by watching this video over and over again. It's about illegal coal mining in India and how people have to do it just to survive. Living in what can only be described as a kind of hell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7D-gyH88JPM

Yet within hours, I start to fall into the trap of feeling despondent. In a lot of ways, we in the industrialized countries can't really see how good we have it, cause we don't have the poverty and abject horror of the rest of the world in our faces. Instead, what we have shoved into our faces is all this social media nonsense, and shit like keeping up with the joneses, never being good enough, never having enough, etc.

I've seen so much of this world, I'm still living with some form of depression and PTSD from the time I was in South East Asia decades ago courtesy of uncle Sam, that'll haunt me till the day I die. Maybe that's why I have such a love for Bangkok, cause it was an oasis of peace and sexual joy for me back then when I was surrounded by death.

It's ironic, I go back there to remember, but more than that, to forget.

If the "much worse than the worst case scenario" occurs -- you get laid off and NVDA and your other shares go to "0" (which they won't) -- you can go to Bangkok and live a pretty darn good life on social security and pensions. Now, you may not be able to afford a 2000 Baht a night bar-girl budget. BUT, Tooms found some young vixen who worships the ground he walks on and he doesn't appear to be paying her much, if anything. If he can do it you can too.

Seriously, you should get some serious exercise if you're not already. It really improves your mood.

[Newton York]

You may want to try getting exercise and a decent amount of sleep every day. Vigorous exercise if you're in decent shape, and if not work up to it.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...on-and-anxiety
https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/sle...health-effects

Don't sweat the finances. You're most likely doing better than 99% of the world's population, even after your recent paper losses.

https://medium.com/publishous/do-you...t-1cdf9ca842ff

That Medium article about 34 k a year really puts things into perspective Tiny12. I appreciate it, so many times when I'm down, and I'm thinking of finally eating that bullet, I try to remind myself there are people way worse off than me out there. Last coupla months I even try to remind myself by watching this video over and over again. It's about illegal coal mining in India and how people have to do it just to survive. Living in what can only be described as a kind of hell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7D-gyH88JPM

Yet within hours, I start to fall into the trap of feeling despondent. In a lot of ways, we in the industrialized countries can't really see how good we have it, cause we don't have the poverty and abject horror of the rest of the world in our faces. Instead, what we have shoved into our faces is all this social media nonsense, and shit like keeping up with the joneses, never being good enough, never having enough, etc.

I've seen so much of this world, I'm still living with some form of depression and PTSD from the time I was in South East Asia decades ago courtesy of uncle Sam, that'll haunt me till the day I die. Maybe that's why I have such a love for Bangkok, cause it was an oasis of peace and sexual joy for me back then when I was surrounded by death.

It's ironic, I go back there to remember, but more than that, to forget.

[Tiny 12]

People who actually want to live die, while people like me who want to die, are still somehow alive.

You may want to try getting exercise and a decent amount of sleep every day. Vigorous exercise if you're in decent shape, and if not work up to it.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...on-and-anxiety
https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/sle...health-effects

Don't sweat the finances. You're most likely doing better than 99% of the world's population, even after your recent paper losses.

https://medium.com/publishous/do-you...t-1cdf9ca842ff

[Elvis 2008]

Like I said, there's more than one way to skin a cat Elvis. My biggest winners were held for 10+ years. But there are a number I wish I'd ditched earlier. At the other end of the spectrum, I have a friend, a day trader who specialized in arbitrage and was self-schooled in antitrust law, who turned $25,000 into $3,000,000 in a few years.

Tiny, I went to a conference of legendary investors. No one had returns like that. It makes no sense for somebody that good to stop.

Renaissance makes returns of 50%+ per year! And they somehow figured out how to channel massive sums of money into their tax free Roth IRA's, although I believe they got into a lawsuit with the IRS over that.

Yeah, and they are all private too and not taking money from outside investors. Funny how that works. The two funds they have opened up to the public were stinkers. They are huge political donors which smells a lot like the scammer SBF was.

The problem I have with this whole Renaissance story is that they brought in math guys and came up with a formula. Investors do not work like that. The problem with the efficient market hypothesis among other things is it does not factor in emotions. Short term, the market is driven by greed and fear, and math guys are not very emotionally well tuned. These Rennaissance guys are doing something sleazy.

[Newton York]

Is there any hope NVDA will ever recover? Or Goog for that matter? Or even AAPL at this point? *sigh*
Sure, NVDA is back to 120, but it's still no where near it's all time highs, FML

I'm about to sell everything fellas, so get your dry powder ready, cause almost every single time I sell, that stock will rocket. It's uncanny, sometimes within the hour. I've seen on many occasions when I buy shares of a stock, like fucking clockwork, within minutes, it will crash. So I'm feeling very down and despondent now, ready to call it quits on my positions in the Mag 7, so all of yous get ready to buy.

I don't know how people do it. Willing to take tens of thousands of Dollars in realized losses so they can get back in at a lower price, to then maybe break even months or years later? In that case, why not just hold? Keep dollar cost averaging down? Why do I have to sell? Doesn't make any sense. I get it, it's probably day traders, or people buying puts, but I'm no Jordan Belfort, I'm not a stock market whiz like Charlie Sheen in that movie, or like Rogue Trader guy of Barings Bank (anybody remember him? I'm just a schmuck that was too stupid and bought stocks in the mag 7. I am indeed one of the sheeple. A schmuck that's too scared to get into options.

But like they say, scared money don't make money. Hence I don't make money. Except in my shitty job that's already laying off people. But weirdly they haven't laid me off yet. Such is life my friends, people who want to be fired, get to stay. People who love their jobs, get fired. People who actually want to live die, while people like me who want to die, are still somehow alive.

Folks, I'm the reverse Cramer thesis embodied in human form. Buy what I sell, sell what I buy.

[EihTooms]

I don't normally post quotes without my own comments, but seriously, there is just nothing to add, it's so good.

Angry and erratic: Trump Cabinet official admits the president is acting on emotion

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...on/ar-AA1AWBpO

Chris Hayes as well as several other MSNBC hosts used to be classic "bothsiders", hanging on to the bewildering notion that Repubs love the country as much as Dems do and whatever horrific results their policies and stewardship produce is just the luck of the draw, shit happens, surely they meant well but it just didn't turn out well.

So it has been a pleasure to watch him and others finally come around to the unavoidable conclusion that those horrific results are hardly an accident and instead they are exactly what Repubs craft their policies to produce and, if there is the slightest chance that their policies won't Crash the economy and wipe out millions upon millions of jobs, then that is when they will rush in with whatever blithering, blathering Repub stewardship is required to get it back on that intended track.

[EihTooms]

Biden didn't start any war, putin did. Biden should be respected for his resistance against the russian war machine. USA used to be, and still is, a great country but I have never seen USA act so weak as it is today under trump. Trump is letting USA get bullied by russia! No other US president would have that lack of confidence in their country!

I have not seen trump end any war, all I have seen trump do is to strengthen putin and putin is not interested in peace. Ergo trump has prolonged the war at the expense of the Ukrainian people!

Churchill words still rings true to this very day: You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war!

Trump is either colluding with russia or just the worst negotiator and president the US ever had.

It's also important to note that the truth is that trump doesn't have any policies, morals or values. He's just doing the opposite of his predecessor and tries to ruin anything the former president accomplished. Spite and pettiness, that's the leading star for trump's presidency.

Claiming a vote for Trump was a vote for Peace has to be one of the most delusional, idiotic assertions anybody has ever made.

Trump declared War on America and led his violent mob of cop-killing insurrectionist "patriots" into battle on American Soil to initiate it!

For 200 plus years America had built an economy, foreign policy and standing as the World's Greatest Nation.

And now a MAGA Cult has empowered a ridiculous, fully-scripted game show host, con man, pathological liar, all-time Worst negotiator, 34 times convicted Felon and officially all-time Worst previous president to tear it apart brick by brick with absolutely zero concept of what to put in its place and a 100% certainty that whatever it is will not be as good as much less better than what they tore down.

[EihTooms]

Get a grip Tooms. Biden is not some kind of intellectual giant. He's suffering from dementia. He would have lost. You're using a similar argument with those 118,000 Muslims as election deniers use to explain how Biden purportedly stole the 2020 election. And it should be obvious to you Democrats should have run someone besides Harris. Your party has increasingly moved to the left and that's a mistake. Democrats like Bill Clinton make good presidential general election candidates. People like Kamala Harris do not. There was no way I'd vote for her because she wanted to raise the capital gains tax to 43.4%, more than the 28% rate that would maximize government revenue. And in 2020 she campaigned to ban fracking. Others had different reasons not to vote for her. If you want to win, nominate candidates with sane policies, instead of those who pander to Progressives.

The 2020 election deniers are claiming millions of fake votes, fake ballots, were laughed out of court 60 times and can not show a single shred of compelling evidence of significant election fraud.

The less than 115,000 vote swing from Trump to Harris, less than a 1 percentage point swing in just PA, MI and WI, the "Blue Wall", changing the outcome from All Blather All The Time About Tariffs to No Blather About Anything Stupid is irrefutable math based on the actual number of votes for both candidates and nothing whatsoever to do with unclaimed "election fraud" .

That irrefutable math proves beyond all possible doubt that the election was very, very close. No landslide. No Mandate.

Trump did not flip any other typically Blue State thanks to any typical Dem demographic switching to his side on any of his claimed issues of the economy, immigration, inflation, crime, what trannies do with their pee-pees, pronouns or anything of the kind except for those 3 Blue Wall states that happened to have some 400,000 - 600,000 Muslim voters whose Community Leaders made it their business to punish the Biden Administration for supporting Israel in its War in Gaza, which they conflated to mean supporting Netanyahu, who held all the cards on swinging their votes depending on when he decided to honor a cease-fire agreement.

And then it only took less than 115,000 of those angry Muslim votes out of the hundreds of thousands of them in those 3 swing states to "give the presidency to Trump."

Nobody is claiming Trump won the swing on those primarily single-issue votes due to election fraud.

Just that those were the deciding number and percentage (less than 1 point) of votes based on the Players on the Field and the uncontested math proves it.

Meanwhile, in an era of "Change" around the world, the Dems flipped House seats until the GOP now has maybe 1 to spare and my oh my so the Red States of Ohio, Montana and West Virginia elected Repub Senators. Impressive.

[EihTooms]

How many times have I replied to this? RTF. You ignore Congress, wars, a pandemic, oil price shocks, the business cycle, what's happening in other countries, Fed policy, the effects of globalization and technology on the economy, and the effects of policies that extend past presidential terms. You look only at what party the president belongs to. Republicans may have fucked up around the time of Hoover, close to 100 years ago, but since it's been the luck of the draw. The president doesn't have much effect on GDP growth or employment during his term compared to other factors.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, we know; luck of the draw, wild 100 years' long coincidences, crazy economic cycle that hates Repub presidents and loves Dem presidents, Witch's Curse on Repubs, etc, etc, etc.

Tell that to President Defund and Remove the Pandemic Prevention team leaders from those Chinese labs contrary to all expert warnings for him not to do something so dangerous and stupid.

Or is it President Blather on and on about imposing 25%-200% tariffs on our closest and best trading partners.

Or how about President Cut Taxes for Corporatons supposedly to "stimulate" the economy, create jobs and drive up GDP Growth to 3% annually, 4%, 5% maybe 6% even when the CEOs it benefited the most assured him they had no intention of doing any such thing with that windfall money and, sure enough, they were right.

Just luck of the draw. Shit happens. Any President following Obama from 2017 to 2021 would have been ranked The Worst President in USA History with the Worst Jobs Creation Since Herbert Hoover.

It was simply destined to happen to whoever won in 2016 because, hey, what about Congress, the guy who delivers coffee to the BLS Offices, Melania's latest hairstyle, oh so many other critical factors.