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  1. #1776
    Quote Originally Posted by PahllusMaximus  [View Original Post]
    If n in 1000 is the predicted rate of hospitalization, at what point in in the USA is in an emergency reached, or put differently:

    When will ICU be overwhelmed? (n in 1000)

    When will casualty be overwhelmed? (see above)

    What is the crisis rate, and why does colder weather necessarily portend higher incidence?.
    Cold. Concentration indoors. Respiratory spread.

    We in the USA have already been overwhelmed twice, once in April, and again in June / July, and are seeing the beginnings of the third episode.

    You and everyone here have the same access to google, cdc, ecdc, and who data that I do if you want to determine length of stay, total beds available, and ICU mortality in order to calculate your estimated critical value for the healthcare system to be overwhelmed. It's beyond my scope of expertise. Perhaps you can crunch the numbers and report back to me this time.

  2. #1775

    Will we need Tyrell Corp Pleasure Model Replicants

    Kris was pretty hot. Tight grip, endless suction, can do any position, walk on ceiling, trained in male anatomy and sex tricks, great kisser, and no diseases, COVID, pregnancy, toilet stops, periods, jealousy etc. Just add the chess, chef, massage therapist, psychologist and <insert module, languages, pre-programmed memory/temprament> and you have the perfect mate. Roy messed it up with consciousness, but was compassionate in the end. Themes of slavery abound in history, this was just another take. Still, maybe it would be good for MANkind.

  3. #1774

    P.s

    Quote Originally Posted by Tuber19  [View Original Post]
    Even a vaccine might not be as much effective as that, I really think the opposite, I think mitigation has limited affect maybe between 2-10 % at most and that's how I can explain why many countries with tight restriction have more deaths per capita than other countries with soft restrictions. Mitigation is like a very weak treatment. It dosent really work.
    This is another fake argument circulating around. "Restrictions" are meaningless without effective enforcement and with widespread non-compliance across populations. This for example has been a huge problem in the Americas, in countries such as Colombia and Peru, and in the US and most notably, in my home state of Florida. This was all hashed out BTW in the Colombia forum on the "Stupid Shit in Medellin" thread while the Fox News crowd kicked and screamed and ignored the evidence. I'm not posting all the links to sources over again, but you are free to go there and dig up the discussions. Bottom line, those guys and their man Trump have been dead wrong, but it's too late for them to admit it as too much is at stake. Is tough, to say the very least, for someone to admit that their wrong opinions and policies have been responsible for the needless deaths of thousands and thousands of people.

  4. #1773

    n in 1000 - can mursenary reveal

    If n in 1000 is the predicted rate of hospitalization, at what point in in the USA is in an emergency reached, or put differently:

    When will ICU be overwhelmed? (n in 1000)

    When will casualty be overwhelmed? (see above)

    What is the crisis rate, and why does colder weather necessarily portend higher incidence?

    COVID is real; FKK is a super spreader environment. On the other hand, the economy and our society is in deep shit, and we need to have a real chat about trade offs, in just the same way that dialysis rationing was once playing god. The folks here are smart enough to see all the implicit moral judgements and bastard type arguments "they are old anyway. "; we all received a death sentence at birth. Beyond that is merely statistical. Many people under 30 see this as a bunch of terrified boomers. It does seem heavily tilted to aged care homes and medical crumbles. Deep economic shit can create wars, civil and otherwise. Lack of beautiful young girls to provide fun is sad. So is lack of travel. A morning BJ and pretty smile cheers a fellow up!

  5. #1772
    Quote Originally Posted by Tuber19  [View Original Post]
    I do agree with most of what you said BUT I want to disagree on one point (mitigation).

    You assumed -as a fact- That mitigation worked well, you think it really did well as number you post suggest that mitigation reduced hospitalization from (1 in 500) to 1 in 250 or 1 in 100 ! Thats huge affect, so you suggest mitigation saved more than have of the population or it is 50% to 80% effective!! I really doubt that. Even a vaccine might not be as much effective as that, I really think the opposite, I think mitigation has limited affect maybe between 2-10 % at most and that's how I can explain why many countries with tight restriction have more deaths per capita than other countries with soft restrictions. Mitigation is like a very weak treatment. It dosent really work.

    That said, I know its not a strong argument but its only my view, what I really think is a good point against mitigation is (myFreedom to decide what's best to my heath) I can value my risks and decide whether I want to travel or not, go to work or not, go to the mall or not, wear a mask or not. Etc. Giving politician the power to decide who to go out and when and why is ridiculous.
    How quickly we've forgotten NYC, Milan, and Wuhan where hospitals were overrun leading to double digit death rates. Current death rates are less than 1%. That was the effect with no mitigation.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7125421/

    https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/new...hs-11603388389

  6. #1771

    Well

    Quote Originally Posted by Tuber19  [View Original Post]
    That said, I know its not a strong argument but its only my view, what I really think is a good point is Freedom to decide what's best to me, I can value my risks and decide whether I want to travel or not, go to work or not, go to the mall or not, wear a mask or not. Etc. Giving politician the power to decide who to go out and when and why is ridiculous.
    In an ideal world you are 100% correct. But sadly there are a lot of stupid people in the world. Just look at any Trump rally. And though civil liberties are important, it's also important to protect societies from stupid people. That would include people who believe they should be able to drive drunk, or stupid people who believe they should be able to stockpile machine guns and grenade launchers. Also US courts have upheld forced hospitalizations of Tuberculosis patients. There's a place for limiting rights, and it's done all the time.

  7. #1770
    Quote Originally Posted by Mursenary  [View Original Post]
    Try reframing your idea of risk assessment and expand your perception of why these events unfolded as they have in order to understand why this is such a major public health crisis.

    1 in 500 1 in 500 people in the western world's general population at large have been hospitalized. Amongst people under 50 years old, 1 in 750. Those numbers will only rise; that's mathematically guaranteed. Mind you, that statistic is with mitigation efforts in place. What if we had kept society 100% open? What would be the rate of hospitalization if the virus was free to spread before we reach herd immunity? 1 in 250? 1 in 100?

    Point is, death is not the only consequence worthy of consideration. While I support making attempts to resume society and also share the same criticism of sensational media outlets, we must first, at the very least, recognize the severity of this pandemic in order to understand how serious of a public health crisis this can really be.
    I do agree with most of what you said BUT I want to disagree on one point (mitigation).

    You assumed -as a fact- That mitigation worked well, you think it really did well as number you post suggest that mitigation reduced hospitalization from (1 in 500) to 1 in 250 or 1 in 100 ! Thats huge affect, so you suggest mitigation saved more than have of the population or it is 50% to 80% effective!! I really doubt that. Even a vaccine might not be as much effective as that, I really think the opposite, I think mitigation has limited affect maybe between 2-10 % at most and that's how I can explain why many countries with tight restriction have more deaths per capita than other countries with soft restrictions. Mitigation is like a very weak treatment. It dosent really work.

    That said, I know its not a strong argument but its only my view, what I really think is a good point against mitigation is (myFreedom to decide what's best to my heath) I can value my risks and decide whether I want to travel or not, go to work or not, go to the mall or not, wear a mask or not. Etc. Giving politician the power to decide who to go out and when and why is ridiculous.

  8. #1769
    Quote Originally Posted by Tuber19  [View Original Post]
    Its obvious to me that many people don't know what risk is of having Covid 19.

    Media focusing on deaths and cases of Covid is just feeding the fear of the virus for everyone while its known as a fact by data that the risk is very very low for the vast majority of people.

    Fact ((150,000 people who die each day across the globe)) almost 55 Million each year, and still Covid is treated like the end of the world with many restricted life for everyone and yet we are talking about going back to normal life with 55 million death! That is nonsense.

    I know many are scared, if you want to be safe just stay at your house until you get a vaccine I don't mind.

    But I don't get why many scared people just want everyone to follow them! Just as if they will not be safe until everyone is safe!! Again nonsense.

    I'm not liking thie overreacting to the virus , and I hope a vaccine will arrive soon and this Pandamec comes to an end.

    Good Luck and stay safe.
    What is sure this virus is quite aggressive, so many top politicians, mayor. Stars got sick and they have all the means to protects themselves. I never listen any politicians and try to make my own opinion taking info from differents sources in French. , English and German, Contrary to all what was said months before the second wave is already there and nothing have changed in the last 6 months, only solution is to quarantine again millions of people with all the terrible consequences: no treatment, no vaccine nothing the same means like in the middle age.

  9. #1768
    Quote Originally Posted by Mursenary  [View Original Post]
    No one ever knows to who you are replying. "Reply with Quote".
    That's true LOL xD.

  10. #1767
    I treat them as soliloquies arguing with a straw man that he disagrees with; the straw man changes with the nature and topic of the argument.

    An example being this present comment from yours truly.

  11. #1766
    Quote Originally Posted by Tuber19  [View Original Post]
    Its obvious to me that many people don't know what risk is of having Covid 19.

    Media focusing on deaths and cases of Covid is just feeding the fear of the virus for everyone while its known as a fact by data that the risk is very very low for the vast majority of people.

    Fact ((150,000 people who die each day across the globe)) almost 55 Million each year, and still Covid is treated like the end of the world with many restricted life for everyone and yet we are talking about going back to normal life with 55 million death! That is nonsense.

    I know many are scared, if you want to be safe just stay at your house until you get a vaccine I don't mind.

    But I don't get why many scared people just want everyone to follow them! Just as if they will not be safe until everyone is safe!! Again nonsense.

    I'm not liking thie overreacting to the virus , and I hope a vaccine will arrive soon and this Pandamec comes to an end.

    Good Luck and stay safe.
    Try reframing your idea of risk assessment and expand your perception of why these events unfolded as they have in order to understand why this is such a major public health crisis.

    1 in 500 1 in 500 people in the western world's general population at large have been hospitalized. Amongst people under 50 years old, 1 in 750. Those numbers will only rise; that's mathematically guaranteed. Mind you, that statistic is with mitigation efforts in place. What if we had kept society 100% open? What would be the rate of hospitalization if the virus was free to spread before we reach herd immunity? 1 in 250? 1 in 100?

    Point is, death is not the only consequence worthy of consideration. While I support making attempts to resume society and also share the same criticism of sensational media outlets, we must first, at the very least, recognize the severity of this pandemic in order to understand how serious of a public health crisis this can really be.

  12. #1765
    Quote Originally Posted by ExpatLover  [View Original Post]
    EL: I am more afraid by your comment than by the covid. May be have you noticed that this virus seems to be out of control in many parts of the world.

    Probably the things will get worse in the coming weeks and may be we will face another quarantine in Europe just because so many people don't respect social distancing. I am afraid that the economical impact will be terrible in the coming months, the biggest winner seems to be China for the moment.
    No one ever knows to who you are replying. — "Reply with Quote".

  13. #1764
    EL: I am more afraid by your comment than by the covid. May be have you noticed that this virus seems to be out of control in many parts of the world.

    Probably the things will get worse in the coming weeks and may be we will face another quarantine in Europe just because so many people don't respect social distancing. I am afraid that the economical impact will be terrible in the coming months, the biggest winner seems to be China for the moment.

  14. #1763
    Quote Originally Posted by Gino02  [View Original Post]
    Aren't you getting bored working only from home? I'm going stir-crazy sitting home and web conferences all day long.

    BTW, I won't ridicule if those folks were just saying that they themselves won't go to FKKs now for their own weaker health conditions or other related situations, and didn't try to lecture others who are going. They were (are) kinda lecturing others to not enlist to military just because they think it's risky. After all it's a fight for the existence of our beloved FKK / P6 system LOL.
    Of course. 2020 has been a fucking hell, for everyone.

    Sometimes I think about all those girls I fucked and wonder if it really happened to me, LOL. Feels unreal.

    You pack nearly 8 billion human beings who increasingly over the decades have been rewarded for being more and more social and suddenly ask them to distance, it is a fucking nightmare.

    However, I still know I have a privileged life and so many have died and millions more are struggling in multiple ways. Can't wait to say sayonara to this year.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemi...ng-11603704601

    Pandemic Fatigue Is Real—And It's Spreading.

  15. #1762
    Its obvious to me that many people don't know what risk is of having Covid 19.

    Media focusing on deaths and cases of Covid is just feeding the fear of the virus for everyone while its known as a fact by data that the risk is very very low for the vast majority of people.

    Fact ((150,000 people who die each day across the globe)) almost 55 Million each year, and still Covid is treated like the end of the world with many restricted life for everyone and yet we are talking about going back to normal life with 55 million death! That is nonsense.

    I know many are scared, if you want to be safe just stay at your house until you get a vaccine I don't mind.

    But I don't get why many scared people just want everyone to follow them! Just as if they will not be safe until everyone is safe!! Again nonsense.

    I'm not liking thie overreacting to the virus , and I hope a vaccine will arrive soon and this Pandamec comes to an end.

    Good Luck and stay safe.

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