Thread: Stupid shit in Medellin
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07-15-21 17:09 #1457
Posts: 1903Well
Originally Posted by PVMonger [View Original Post]
"The problem with this reasoning is that it avoids engaging with the issue at hand, and instead shifts attention to extreme hypotheticals. ".
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/slippery-slope
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07-15-21 16:32 #1456
Posts: 5586Why Covid infections are on the rise again.
I just saw a story that Bogota is back in the red with ICU capacity at 84%. I expect Medellin will be there soon. Many places in the US have seen the number of new infections triple in recent weeks. This trend is likely to continue, at least in the US and probably Colombia as well.
If you're shocked, or grasping for reasons why this could be happening now, it's easy to explain. We've already done it once.
If you go back to March-April 2020, what was happening in the US and Colombia? Communities were mandating masks and social distancing, gatherings were prohibited, travel was restricted, people were asked to stay home except for essential trips, many employers, when able, had employees work from home, schools were all closed. In simpler terms, we took the recommended steps to limit the spread of the virus. In the US we did this for almost 5 weeks.
It was effective. New infections started dropping, number of deaths and hospitalizations peaked and began to fall. If we had continued for 2 more weeks, last summer probably would have been much better. Instead, after 4 weeks, people, including people in power, began to demand all those precautions end. Armed protesters even stormed one state capitol. People argued for open bars and restaurants, reopening schools and removing masks. Over the next 7 weeks the number of cases more than tripled.
At that point there was some pushback. Masks became common again, more stores began controlling customer entry, more restrictions were placed on gatherings. Which brought us to our second dip, in August and early September, still twice as high as the lowest point of the first dip, but an improvement.
And then we reopened the schools. There was a strong push to return everything back to normal. Masks were compared to The Holocaust, blah, blah, blah. Between September and January the daily number of new cases increased 1,000%. We went from a low of 25 k new cases on September 7 to 250 k on January 10. We went from under 300 deaths daily to over 4,000 over roughly the same time period (the deaths curve follows 3-4 weeks behind the infection curve).
Then we once again began emphasizing the common sense measures which were effective before, along with distribution and campaigns to get people vaccinated. By June we had reached levels that we haven't seen since late March 2020.
It's almost as if we're afraid of success. Every time we can see the light at the end of the tunnel, we start screaming that we need to return to the dark ages.
Masks in the US have almost completely disappeared. All the signs posted a month ago are gone. I do at least still see people social distancing in stores, but there's a strong push to open up events to spectators, without limits. At the same time there's an active push to discourage people from being vaccinated. It doesn't take a PhD in mathematics to project the curve.
As things are going, the number of infections will continue to rise and the rate of new vaccinations will continue to fall. Assuming that doesn't change the US will be back in the 1500-2500 deaths per day range before Thanksgiving, which would have us approaching 1 million deaths early 2022. Remember when 80,000 deaths was an impossible number?
Although the new variants are part of the problem, there's no magic bullet. If you increase the opportunity for virus transmission, you increase the number of new infections. Increase the number of new infections and you increase the likelihood of new variants.
There is one bright spot in this. The people who will die will almost exclusively be the people who refused to get vaccinated. Eventually we'll reach a level of stabilization, after enough anti-vaxx people tell their family "I wish I'd gotten vaccinated."
In a moment of serendipity I just saw a story last night about a couple from Missouri who refused the vaccine and ended up hospitalized for Covid. Let's just say an extended stay in ICU clarifies the "should I get vaccinated" question.
The good news is that this will mostly be over in another year. At least in the US. It's already nearly over in many countries. When it ends depends almost entirely on the local vaccination rates.
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07-15-21 16:09 #1455
Posts: 1945Originally Posted by JjBee62 [View Original Post]
Originally Posted by JjBee62 [View Original Post]
Originally Posted by JjBee62 [View Original Post]
"What percentage of people in ICU on ventilators wish they had gotten vaccinated? What percentage are glad they didn't get vaccinated?
I have no idea. Any guess would be wild speculation. Nor do I know what % of people in ICU have been vaccinated.
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07-15-21 15:54 #1454
Posts: 1945Originally Posted by JjBee62 [View Original Post]
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07-15-21 15:50 #1453
Posts: 3329Winnie the Pooh loves ass lickers like you
Originally Posted by Villainy [View Original Post]
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07-15-21 14:26 #1452
Posts: 1604Horse Hockey
Originally Posted by Elvis2008 [View Original Post]
Look at what is happening in red states like Tennessee. Vaccine outreach has been terminated by RepubliKKKans. Why? Makes no sense. Unless being contrary is the goal. But, in reality, who cares? They're just going to kill their own voters!
That COVID cases are rising is no fluke and you are correct on that. The R0 of the delta variant is at least 3 x more infectious than the original (6 vs 2). Do the math if you can. The results will astound you.
All but one at one hospital had been vaccinated? I highly doubt it, especially because you provided no proof (just like Tucker "Your a moron if you believe anything I say" Carlson). The facts are that COVID cases are exploding in states with the lowest vaccination rates. All of those states voted for the orange buffoon. People who aren't getting vaccinated are risking their lives, their parent's lives, etc.
The vaccine has side effects? Big whoop because every vaccine has side effects. Way more than we're being told? How do you know? Were you told? Or did you make it up? Or get your info from some conspiracy theory web site? Rather than spouting raw numbers as your justification, why not use percentages? 170 million people in the US have received at least 1 dose of the vaccine. 750 people have died. What is that percentage? 750 people have died after getting the vaccine? Or 750 deaths can be directly linked to receiving the vaccine? Big difference.
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07-15-21 05:42 #1451
Posts: 5586Originally Posted by JustTK [View Original Post]
You have to take Elvis with a grain of salt. For him everything has to be expressed along political lines. Unless you agree 100% with his current position, you're a liberal and the cause of all the world's problems. This might make sense if his position on the pandemic didn't change drastically from day to day.
For months he claimed it wasn't worse than the flu. Although there were several numbers he claimed the US death toll would never reach, the most renowned was 80,000. Along the way he's claimed masks were ineffective and effective, social distancing was effective and ineffective, travel restrictions were ineffective and effective, the list goes on and on.
My position on the pandemic has nothing to do with any political position. It has to do with 1 thing: deaths. Unnecessary deaths bother me. I don't care about your politics, or anyone else's politics. When it comes to the pandemic I have one question. Is what you're doing likely to increase or reduce the number of unnecessary deaths?
At the individual level, I don't care who gets vaccinated. However, if someone is attempting to promote the idea that getting vaccinated is more dangerous than not getting vaccinated, I'm going to oppose them. See my prior post for an easy to understand explanation.
You want me to be more respectful? Respect is a two way street. If you want it, you need to be willing to give it.
Twice I responded to your post giving specific examples to counter your claims. Did you address any of the points I made? Not one. All you did was complain I was mean to you.
I readily admit my tone was rude. I have a very low tolerance for insupportable statements and you made a few. Let's revisit them.
I'm going to paraphrase. Some people won't get vaccinated because the long term effectiveness is unknown.
There's only one thing where the long term effectiveness is certain, death. I think you mentioned eating healthy and keeping in shape in one post. The cemeteries are full of people who ate healthy and kept fit. Those types of risk management behaviors improve the life expectancy of the group, but there will always be individuals who fall outside the curve.
Getting vaccinated may only protect you for 6 months, or you might get hit by a bus 2 weeks later. What percentage of people in ICU on ventilators wish they had gotten vaccinated? What percentage are glad they didn't get vaccinated?
I think that's enough. If you want to have a respectful, friendly discussion, then address the points I've made. Show how they are invalid.
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07-15-21 04:20 #1450
Posts: 5586Originally Posted by JustTK [View Original Post]
However, let me put it in terms that you and El "it's no worse than the flu" Virus can understand. Oops. I just gave both of you much more credit than you deserve. The chance of either of you understanding it is about 1. 5 of 42,000.
Let's start with your claim that the vaccine has killed thousands and ElVirus' claim it has hospitalized thousands. Let's exaggerate just a bit and make the number: 9,999.
That's the highest it can be before it becomes tens of thousands. And to exaggerate further let's say that's 9,999 confirmed deaths definitely caused by a vaccine.
Now let's look at another number: 4,000,000.
That's the current number of confirmed deaths from COVID-19. Let's put them together so there's a chance you can understand which is the bigger number:
9,999 - assumed, exaggerated, unconfirmed vaccine deaths.
4,000000 - actual, confirmed COVID-19 deaths.
Are you still confused? Let's add 2 more numbers.
First, the number of people who have received at least 1 vaccine dose: 1,900,000,000.
Second, the number of confirmed COVID-19 infections: 188,000,000.
Now let's bring that together for you. After that, feel free to go to my first paragraph and read it with a new level of comprehension.
9,999 ÷ 1,900,000,000 = 0. 000000525.
That's the grossly exaggerated, unconfirmed probability that getting vaccinated will kill you.
4,000,000 ÷ 188,000,000 = 0. 021.
That's the confirmed probability that getting Covid will kill you if you're unvaccinated.
Now let's make that per 100,000 people, to make it easier to illustrate to the stupid people.
For every 100,000 unvaccinated people who get Covid, 2,100 will die.
For every 100,000 people who get vaccinated, 0. 0525 will die.
I guess it's better to raise that to 2,000,000.
For every 2,000,000 vaccines given, 1.5 person might die.
For every 2,000,000 unvaccinated people who are infected with Covid, 42,000 will die.
So you believe it's much better to kill 42,000 people than to take a chance that 1. 5 persons might die?
Still think it's arrogance? Feel free to illustrate to us all how it's more important to let 84,000 people die so you can keep 3 alive.
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07-14-21 23:59 #1449
Posts: 1945Originally Posted by Elvis2008 [View Original Post]
It is true that cases are rising again in some unexpected places. UK for example (one of the countries with the highest vax rates) is experiencing very high cases again. It seems the vaxes have lowered death rates but have not prevented spread. And in that environment there is no way that the virus will be eliminated. We have to simply learn to live with it. But many people do not want to hear that. So they attack the messenger.
Oh well, it would be a nicer place to chat here if some people were most respectful of others. A different view does not always mean a view from across the political aisle. There is room for more than two views, and often sharing opinions is the best way to learn.
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07-14-21 20:50 #1448
Posts: 4273Originally Posted by JustTK [View Original Post]
Of course, the Republican partisan folks do not trust the media and medical guard like Fauci who ousted their beloved leader. They think and are right to mistrust the medical establishment, but the vaccine really was not from the medical establishment but the private sector. However, the pharmacy leaders getting a lawsuit exemption is a tough pill to swallow, and I think they should have had a modification such that people could sue but with a limit on damages. Nonetheless, the benefits of getting the vaccine outweigh the risks for most people.
And the resurgence of Covid in America is now not a statistical fluke but one I am seeing myself. Hospitals are full again, and they are full of Covid patients and all but one at one hospital had been vaccinated. Sadly, this is hitting younger ages now and those are the folks less likely to get the vaccine, 30 to 60 year old mostly.
So what is needed now more then ever is an end to the partisan bickering. Yes, Republicans Covid is real. No, Democrats the vaccine has way more side effects than you are being told. Vertigo is more than 1%, women with excessive bleeding after the vaccine is real, pericarditis in young men is real too. 750 people have died after getting the vaccine and 4000+ more have been hospitalized.
The virus has shown the worse of the partisan bickering, and I hope it comes to an end. To the people who have not gotten vaccinated, talk to those who have. There is little I or anyone else to say that will make you change your mind.
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07-14-21 20:00 #1447
Posts: 5586Originally Posted by JustTK [View Original Post]
You could have saved about 20 posts by just saying so from the beginning.
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07-14-21 18:02 #1446
Posts: 1945Originally Posted by JjBee62 [View Original Post]
Originally Posted by JjBee62 [View Original Post]
"Its good evidence against people that do not want to take the vaccine bcos they think it is ineffective. " - simply means "This is good evidence against vaccine-efficacy deniers. ".
So clearly your are not off to a good start here.
Originally Posted by JjBee62 [View Original Post]
Nowhere did I state that was my own position. I am writing about the position that others hold. Neither did I ever state the best course of action is to do nothing.
Again, a complete strawman. Well done!
Originally Posted by JjBee62 [View Original Post]
I posit a Q. Would it be moral for me to take you or a loved one from you without your or their permission so that I could run medial experiments on you / them? Chances are good that it will prevent deaths in creating a vaccine but chances are certain that you will die in the experiment Is that moral?
That is my dilemma. Do you understand the dilemma now?
No one has forced me or my wife or children or loved ones to take part in these experiments. Thats bcos I am lucky. But there are thousands of innocent sentient beings that have been forced in to these experiments. And been murdered. And that is what I do not accept.
So well, done. You not only failed to destroy anything of what I wrote, you manage to totally misunderstand every part of what I wrote. Is English YOUR first language?
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07-14-21 02:25 #1445
Posts: 3329
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07-13-21 13:46 #1444
Posts: 68It's 16% not 10%. Science about side-effects
Vaccine have same side-effects that the original flu, corona has, but only of 1/1. 000 or 1/10.000 or even 1/100.000.
Blod coagulation is a major side-effect of corona infection, responsible for million of deaths, that is in combination with other damages on lunges etc.
Astra-Zenecas caused blood coagulation in 4 of 400.000 people in Norway. One on 100.000, and treatable!
So we are all safe in the 1st world very soon and can sell / give the vaccine to 2nd /3rd world counties in a couple of months and then the battle begins in Africa, Latin-American and Asia. It should eliminated in 6 months in the major population areas and in 12 months globally.
The price for sex services is 16% of that in Copenhagen. It has been around 15% since 2006 when I made my first trip.
Prices was souring when young venezolanas invaded and brought down prices to it's normal 150 k / hour for beautiful girls, which is a weeks salary for unskilled unregistred workers.
I look for my super vopuptuosa prepago-friend-provider Monica, she used the name Zara on Paisadivinas, we had an argument and I can't stand life itself with her, she is the perfect mistress! Big round ass, long legs, big tits, big lips, like a doll but affordable, I always. Hey, why only 150 k including BBBJ.
Anyone know her or anther super-voupuos beauty with great personality, around 30 yo, since they are not trying to rob me / us do all the time, I can't bring them to my apartment anymore, they are hopeless and might cause a scene and make things hell for me.
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07-13-21 05:14 #1443
Posts: 5586Originally Posted by JustTK [View Original Post]
Originally Posted by JustTK [View Original Post]
And that's how vaccines work, by preventing most recipients from contracting whichever disease the vaccination is for. Poliomyelitis would not have been almost entirely eradicated worldwide, without such widespread distribution of the vaccine. If you want a visual to help grasp that concept, go to Medellin. Walk around some of the poor neighborhoods. Look for the people with twisted and shriveled limbs. They're not difficult to spot. Often they are begging for change. Notice anything about them? None of them are children or young adults. The reason is, the disease was eradicated from Colombia by 1991.
You are entitled to believe whatever you want. If you want to believe the Covid vaccines are ineffective, go for it. But stop babbling incoherently about evidence when you obviously are either unwilling or unable to examine the evidence.
But there are other reasons. For example, people might question the long term effectiveness of the vaccine. That has not been proven.
33 years ago, plus a few months, my fiancee was found to have 2 malignant brain tumors, 1 left temporal and 1 right frontal. This was her third about with cancer, with the second being about 4 years earlier. We consulted with Oncologists and Neurosurgeons, we researched all the available alternatives and asked all the questions. The main question was "what are the chances the cancer will come back?
In other words "what is the long term effectiveness of this surgery and treatment combination?
Without surgery, with radiation treatments and massive doses of steroids, she could have hoped to live for 6-9 months, however, she would have effectively been a vegetable after 3-4 months. With surgery, an experimental treatment and radiation treatments, she could reasonably expect to be cancer free for 3-5 years. However, the likelihood of future cancer was high.
Using your insane reasoning, since the long term effectiveness of the treatment was unknown, she would have been better off dying in 6-9 months after only a few months of being able to live her life. Since neither of us were insane, we went with the course which provided the best hope for a future.
In the end, the cancer returned (after 5 years) there was another round of surgery and treatment, which gave another 3 years before cancer ended her life. That's nearly 8 years of life that you believe she should have thrown away, because the long term effectiveness was unknown.
Are you beginning to grasp why I said you're making yourself look like an idiot?
Choosing between being protected nearly 100% against death or long term hospitalization from Covid for a year or more (at no cost to you), with the possibility of needing another dose of vaccine at some point in the future, and having up to a 20% chance of hospitalization and 1. 8% chance of death, if you become symptomatic with Covid (all while racking up huge medical bills), seems pretty fucking simple.
Myself, I would not take a vax bcos I think it is immoral. For example, would you sacrifice your own child / wife / mother so that I can research the effects of a potential vaccine? I assume you would say no. So then why would you expect someone else to sacrifice theirs or for anyone else to take yours without your permission?
However, the vaccine has been tested. It continues to be tested many thousands of times every day. The rate of adverse effects is extremely low. It is not a "potential vaccine." None of the currently available vaccines are "potential vaccines." Nobody is forcing you to inject an unknown substance into your wife, child or mother.
However, if wish to link voluntarily receiving a tested and safe vaccine with morality then you're on the wrong fucking forum. By being here, on ISG, in the Colombia forum, you are supporting using the poverty of young Colombian mothers as a lever to force them to have sex with you at a price much lower than you could get in other places. Check with your local community standards. I believe you'll find more people think that mongering with impoverished women 20-50 years younger than you is less acceptable than getting a vaccine.
Personally, I don't have a problem with it, but I'm not trying to claim my moral superiority by my decision on whether or not to get vaccinated.
I'll keep saying it:
If you don't want to get vaccinated, don't get vaccinated. Nobody is holding a gun to your head forcing you to get vaccinated. Not that a bullet to the head has a chance of striking anything you use. It's your personal decision, nobody else's. Just stop spewing your idiocy trying to pretend your decision has any rational basis.