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A serious book recommendation for Elvis and Tiny
The world's non Repub MAGAs already know all about this and don't really need to read or listen to this book to know everything in it.
But it would no doubt come as a total shock for low information suc, er I mean, emotion-driven cult-followers, er I mean "conservatives" to realize what was done to them:
[B]Ministry of Truth.
Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past.[/B]
[URL]https://www.msnbc.com/ministryoftruth[/URL]
[QUOTE][b]Republicans exposed for adopting Trump's gaslighting tactic to avoid harsh political realities.[/b]
Rachel Maddow talks with Steve Benen, MaddowBlog editor and author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past," about how Republicans have grown increasingly comfortable simply denying inconvenient facts or constructing false histories to avoid having to deal with being associated with unpopular policies and events.[/QUOTE][B]Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans War on the Recent Past.[/B]
[URL]http://www.publishersweekly.com/9780063393677[/URL]
[QUOTE]The Republican Party is waging a frantic gaslighting campaign to rewrite the stories that have unfolded over the last several years, according to this illuminating account from Benen (The Impostors) a producer of The Rachel Maddow Show.
Pointing to polls showing that a majority of Republican voters believe that Trump made no effort to overturn the 2020 election, among other misbeliefs that absolve Donald Trump from wrongdoing and exaggerate his successes as president, Benen delves into how the Republican playbook of historical revisionism has evolved in recent years to make such lies possible to perpetuate.
While much of it comes down to Trumps habitual lying and self-aggrandizing being repeated as fact on right-leaning outlets like Fox News, Benen also spotlights Republican politicians who have entered Trumps alternate reality and begun generating their own pro-Trump spin, like Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, who claimed the Jan. 6 insurrectionists were fake Trump protesters, and New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik, who asserted that the FBIs search for classified documents at Mar-a-Lago was part of a hoax. While Benen, true to form, spends slightly too much time on Russia-related events, his account is well sourced and covers a lot of ground.
This cogent survey of the Trumpist lie factory is worth checking out for more than just fans of Maddow. (Aug.)[/QUOTE]
Harris has Trump "knocked off his bearings, disoriented... " and in a rope-a-dope?
[QUOTE=EihTooms;2937267][b]Trump's slurring, lies and incoherence will only get worse after this [/b]
Cook Political Report is one of the more highly respected polling services:
[URL]https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/election[/URL]
[B]Swing State Project: August 14, 2024 Toplines
August 14, 2024[/B]
[URL]https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/14Aug2024-toplines[/URL]
Trump leads Harris only in Nevada in these polls, +3 in the Head-to-Head, +5 in the 5-Way. This was before the audio interview of him and Musk laughing about how much fun it is to fire the American Working Men and Women for daring to expect to be fairly paid and treated, especially union workers.
Trump should have canceled that Republican National Convention, promised to name a VP candidate "in two weeks" and [b]remained silent and hidden[/b] in that last basement Men's Room stall he usually hides in when frightened.[/QUOTE]
Yep, [i][b]"remaining silent and hidden"[/b][/i], would have definitely been more preferable for Repub chances at winning. But luckily for Dems, being loud, obnoxious and an insufferable slurring drama queen, is Trump's strong suits. And coincidentally, it would seem, tied to his polling, over the past several weeks.
The more the Repub drama queen, lies about things like "crowd sizes" and drones on about death by electric boats vs. sharks, the more his polls tank and the more Repubs and Independents, cross over to the Harris/Walz ticket. Quite frankly, I'm in favor of keeping him talking! (...kkkk!)
[i][b]NYT - The worst Three Weeks of Donald Trump's 2024 campaign, yet!...[/b]one unforced error after another
"People around the former and would-be president [b]see a candidate knocked off his bearings, disoriented by his new contest with Kamala Harris[/b] and [u]unsure of how to take her on[/u]...Nearly three weeks since she became his Democratic opponent, Mr. Trump and his campaign are still struggling to settle on how to define Ms. Harris, what message with which to attack her, and even what nickname with which to belittle her...
Outside advisers and allies have also called Mr. Trump to impress on him the political peril of continuing with those kinds of attacks...stick to policy contrasts, rather than personal attacks, and to treat Ms. Harris as a formidable adversary, as he had Mrs. Clinton.
That advice has gone unheeded."
[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/politics/trump-campaign-election.html[/URL][/i]
Repubs are just adorably gullible, when it comes to Trump, as they continue to hold out hope, that somehow, he'll finally become the conservative "presidential" candidate, they so desperately desire.
Harris / Walz handling the jabs like Champions...
[QUOTE=EihTooms;2937384]It is always great for a laugh to hear anyone express concern about a Dem Administration with ANY particular Party conttol in the House and Senate doing serious damage to the American economy after EVERY Repub Administration of the past 100 years has produced and presided over the worst economic downsturns and series of downturns regardless which Party controls the House and Senate but certainly the worst of the worst when Repubs also control the House and the Senate. LOL.
Meanwhile, nothing, zero, nada of the kind has ever happened when Dem Administrations also have Dem control of the House and the Senate. In fact, nothing but damn great results have occurred under that perfectly benign condition while nothing but horrific results have occurred when Repubs are in total control of all three.
The great danger in blithely rooting for a Repub Majority in the House and / or Senate is then all it takes is one more blithering numbskull Electoral College quirk in one individual blithering numbskull Repub's favor to complete the Triumverate of Terror and Total Economic Disaster of a Repub in the White House with a Repub Majority House and Senate.
That is too great a risk for any patriotic American to take when the Dem alternative has shown throughout history to produce zero downside risk of even a notable mild and momentary economic downturn.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Xpartan;2937387]Your "she may have started the war in Ukraine" lunacy notwithstanding, why on earth would you drop my name in your diatribe? I'm not in awe with Kamala Harris. I said in this very forum that I would've been happier with another candidate who's more their own person and not mostly known as a sidekick.
That said, Kamala Harris is the only person currently standing between Donald Trump and America.
You know my take on Donald Trump. He is a calamity. I think if elected again, Donald Trump will attempt to end our democracy and way of life. This is my EDUCATED guess based on what he already did or tried to do between 2016 and 2020, the period that might be dubbed by future historians Orwellian or Putinesque, or probably both.
Since you do know how I feel about Donald Trump, what else am I supposed to do? For a sane person, there is no real choice between Kamala and Trump even if the former might be lacking somewhat as a presidential candidate.[/QUOTE]
I expected as much. As all the fake bluster, bunk and bullshit w/r to the Harris/Walz ticket, is just Repubs, trying to find and suss out, what will stick to the wall.
Personally, I love how the Harris/Walz ticket is handling, the often juvenile and nonsensical comments coming from the dysfunctional Repub campaign, who have yet to announce what plans, polices or political stances there running on. Which we all know they don't have any policies or plans, just more cheap rhetoric.
The Harris/Walz ticket, has them disoriented and still reeling from the campaign jabs of being called [b]"weird"[/b] (which BTW, was so apropos!). The other campaign's jabs haven't landed a single blow yet and for the last 3-weeks have only gotten tired, stale and [b]"punch drunk".[/b]
The 13 Keys to the White House
[QUOTE=CheckMate1;2937276]In 1991, Lichtman and coauthor Ken DeCell published The 13 Keys to the White House (Madison Books, 1991), a book laying out the 13-key forecasting system initially developed in 1981 by Lichtman and renowned mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok. They developed the keys based on their analysis of trends in presidential campaigns since 1860.
The 13 keys are simple to use: if 8 or more of the 13 keys are true for the incumbent party, its candidate will win the electionbut if fewer than 8 are true, the challenger will win.
1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. FALSE.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. TRUE.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE.[/QUOTE]Unless I am mistaken, I think Lichtman usually frames it as, "If 6 or more of the Keys are False, the WH Party is predicted to lose. ".
Looking at it that way, I would say:
1. False.
2.
3. False.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. False. It is undeserved, but MSM went berserk blaming Biden and has never let up over 1 Taliban nut with a suicide bomb vest in Afghanistan getting past Taliban "security" and killing 13 USA Military in what is still the least deadly withdrawal from an occupied country by the losing side in war history.
11. False, but there is a better than even chance Ukraine's latest moves will look more and more to the world like Russia is definitely losing. Even though neither that one nor Gaza / Israel is a USA war, such an outcome would add a point score to Biden. Personally, I would credit Biden for a major military success for keeping us out of any war anywhere for the past 3 1/2 years, for the first time in decades. And, of course, for leading the country to a win in Trump's War Against America and American Democracy in January 2021.
12. False. Harris is very popular within her Party. But she shows no sign (yet) of being a historically charismatic cross-over candidate as in FDR or Reagan.
13. (P. S. - See 12 above on steroids for Trump. Nobody outside of his MAGAs can stand him. He lost the Popular Vote twice already by a combined 10 million votes. He is really no FDR or Reagan).
So with 6 or more False Keys being the danger zone for Harris, my count is 5 for now with a good chance that 1 of those 5 could flip True in the next month or two and near zero chance any of the others will go False before November.
Had Mainstream Media not terrorized Dem campaign donors and down ballot Dem candidates over a few verbal gaffes, Biden would have retained the Incumbancy Key, still had all the others Harris has and would have been a 100% lock to win re-election, not even close.
But Harris will still do well.
LOL. In light of her critically important overwhelming popularity within the Dem Party, it is now even more hilarious that pro Repub pretend "bothsider" pundits like Bill Maher were begging Biden to drop out and take Harris with him since there is no way she would be a viable potus candidate, her being his VP pick from the beginning being another terrible decision by that "cognitively impaired" old man. LOL.
BTW, I believe Lichtman's current count is more favorable for Harris than mine right now but says he will give his final count right after the Dem National Convention.
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Harris / Dems Beat Trump / Repubs on uh on uh on Emerson?
When the Emerson Poll has Harris and the Dems beating Trump and the Repubs, it is time for Trump's constant, career-defining public lying about everything all the time to become Super charged!
LOL. His rally lies about how his economy was "the strongest in the history of the world" when in fact it was weaker than Biden's or Obama's and a few other potuses of the past few decades on every important metric even if you subtract his Historic Trump's Pandemic Disaster numbers (although there is no logical reason to do so) and that he "handed Biden a miracle economy and then he ruined it" when in fact he handed Biden-Harris among the top three worst economic conditions of the past Century (along with Hoover's and GW Bush's handoffs, one of which Biden was also key to producing one of the greatest recoveries of all time) and then Biden-Harris produced the greatest recovery from Trump's Pandemic's economic disaster and inflation on the planet, he might as well keep lying about how his poll numbers are ahead of Harris' "by a LOT", too!
His numbskull cult-followers won't know the difference. And even if they do, nothing delights a Repub MAGA more than their boys and girls lying their asses off in service to weasling into office so they can again and again and again produce the worst economic and national security results in history.
[URL]https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/election[/URL]
Thanks again, Joe and Kamala
Of course, this is only happening because the polls are showing Trump might win. Oh. Not at all?
Nevermind.
[B]Consumer spending jumped in July as retail sales were up 1%, much better than expected.[/B]
[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/retail-sales-july-2024-.html?__source=androidappshare[/URL]
[QUOTE]Advanced retail sales accelerated 1% on the month, much better than the 0.3% estimate.
In other economic news, weekly jobless claims totaled 227,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week and lower than the estimate for 235,000.
The reports come the same week as data showing that inflation eased slightly in July.[/QUOTE][B]A key metric shows prices normalizing: 'Mission accomplished,' economist says.[/B]
[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/14/prices-are-returning-to-normal-mission-accomplished-says-expert.html?__source=androidappshare[/URL]
[B]Biden administration releases prices of 10 drugs in Medicare talks[/B]
[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/medicare-releases-prices-for-first-10-drugs-subject-to-negotiations.html?__source=androidappshare[/URL]
[QUOTE]The Biden administration released prices for the first 10 prescription drugs that were subject to landmark negotiations with Medicare.
The government estimates that the new prices could produce $6 billion in net savings for Medicare in 2026 alone, based on data from 2023.
It is a milestone in a controversial process that aims to make costly medications more affordable for older Americans, a policy the pharmaceutical industry has opposed.
It comes one day before the second anniversary of President Joe Bidens signature Inflation Reduction Act.[/QUOTE][B]Harris to propose federal ban on 'corporate price-gouging' in food and groceries[/B]
[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/harris-corporate-price-gouging-ban-food-election.html?__source=androidappshare[/URL]
[QUOTE]Vice President Kamala Harris will propose the first-ever federal ban on corporate price-gouging in the food industry, her campaign announced.
Harris will also pledge that if elected, she will direct the Justice Department to increase scrutiny of potential mergers between grocers and food producers.
The ban is part of a broader effort by the Democratic presidential nominee to respond to voters ongoing frustration with the high cost of meat and groceries.[/QUOTE]
Is it time to propose new amendments to the constitution?
I have three that I think with current state of population, technology advancement, and blindspot that currently not addressed in the constitution.
Proposal A: Change the electoral college to popular vote system, 50%+1.
Reasonings: The electoral college was set up so that large cities with information flowing slowly to the rural areas would not dominate rural citizens every election. Ideally not having only a few states to determine the outcome. In the 20th century, it was argued that the middle of the country would be disadvantage because election campaigns would only need to campaign in the outer perimeters of the country. Problem with this argument is that now we ACTUALLY have a few states deciding the outcome and with less representation of the populace. I believe we are in a good enough technological advancement that there are no real advantages of high population centers determining outcomes as it once did. News / Information is available within seconds as opposed to the past of newspapers lagging at least a day.
Proposal be: NO family members can serve in presidential admininstration, 1st cousins included.
Proposal see: No Elected members of congress / senate; President / Vice President; Supreme Court Justices can receive gifts from ANY person or business. All side hussle earnings will be donated to the treasury with neutral tax ramafication. One exception to this rule is proceeds from book sales will go to the author. All salary of elected officials are tax exempted. All incomes derived from investments shall be managed in a blind trust and tax exempt until leave of office.
Why are you running for a position in the Federal Government if you're not there to protect and improve the lives of its citizens? I think with these changes, you'll have more honorable people in government.
So full-circle to "big payouts" and "bonuses" now, huh?
[QUOTE=Elvis 2008;2937221]I have never met anyone in my life who went into government by choice. People who go into it do so for security not excellence, and most cannot wait to get their pensions and get the hell out.[/QUOTE]
Okay, So get a gov't job, just for the "security" but "not excellence" required, and then "get hell out"...okay I think I've got it!
But Elvis 2008, how do you square, if "excellence" isn't required for a gov't job, then why would, Repub George H.W. Bush, pass a tax exemption rule, to "attract talent", if none is required? Is this just another, boneheaded Repub tax dodge?
Doesn't this (George H.W. Bush tax exemption) seem to fly in the face of your back of the envelope theory, on "not excellence" in gov't jobs? How do you explain this?
[QUOTE=Elvis 2008;2937341] The only people wanting to go into government today are the ones who do get the big payouts.[/QUOTE]
(...kkkk!) What, the what now? So now you're taking in circles?
First it is for "security" but "not excellence" and now it's "the big payouts" and "bonuses" also? What's next?
BTW, I am pretty sure, SubCmdr's post, already covers this exact topic, when he refers to bonuses, [b]cross-pollenation of employees[/b] and [b]the symbiotic revolving door[/b] between gov't and business connections and relations.
So what you're really saying is, you now agree with the education SubCmdr provided you in his post? If so, congratulations for coming full circle!
[b]SubCmdr's post:[/b] "My education for you Elvis is gratis" --[url]http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/forum/showthread.php?2467-American-Politics&p=2937221&viewfull=1#post2937221[/url]
BTW, Elvis 2008, how you do explain, "billionaire" Trump taking the gov't job of president in 2016? Where was the "big payout"? Since we all know he's trying to take the job in 2024, simply to stay outta jail?
