Wish I had a dollar for all such predictions
[QUOTE=BloodRed;2771260]Man I can't believe some people buy into this horseshit. Russia will win this war, write this down.
You live in a fairytale world.[/QUOTE]Do you have a copy of what Putin wrote down before Feb 24th? Do you have copies of all those who wrote down that Russia would win handily and quickly? It's ok if your copies are in Cyrillic or other non-English scripts, we can use Google Translate.
Just thought it would be a useful exercise to gather all the failed predictions in one spot.
Nobody held a gun to Putin's head
[QUOTE=BloodRed;2771263]The ignorance here is staggering! This war did NOT start on Feb 24,2022. It started in 2014 when America helped stage the coup. Zelensky was ready to accept Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and part of the Donbas and neutrality back in March until the you. S and Britain told him not to because they wanted to make Russia bleed. Sure, Russia is bleeding but Ukraine will become a land locked country and a rump state the longer this goes on.[/QUOTE]For the sake of argument, let's assume all your assertions are true. Whatever wrongs he felt needed to be corrected, Putin made the specific choice to use force. Once he did that, all other doors slammed shut. Any concessions Ukraine might have considered early in the war evaporated once it was clear the West would be supporting Ukraine and especially once Russia experienced setbacks like the retreat from near Kyiv. Nobody negotiates with an enemy who is failing on the battlefield. Putin's problem is that he miscalculated with respect to the resistance he would encounter from both Ukraine and beyond. He's now reaping the results of that miscalculation.
So many known and unknown variables
[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2771269]The first point is absolutely correct. This isn't just about Russia's military excursion in the Ukraine. If Russian aggression was rewarded, it would send a dangerous message to Putin and even Xi Jinping.
As far as the point that this is an existential battle for the Ukraine, I generally agree. However if the war grinds on through next year, the practical reality is that there might need to be a negotiated resolution which isn't exactly the settlement Ukrainians want. We will understand a lot if there is indeed another attempt at a winter offensive by the Russians. Even if we presume the Ukraine will push back another offensive, we're still left with a irrational Russia. The Ukraine is fighting a destructive war that relies too much on a much larger enemy capitulating and possibly deposing its leader. Perhaps the Russian army is truly running out of resources and support of the Russian people.
Would I like this to end like Czar Nicholas' reign after entering World War I? Hell yeah. Is it worth a long, grinding war? Not sure.[/QUOTE]As usual, I'm reluctant to play the prediction game. But, following along the "existential battle" theme, it's possible that the more grinding the war gets the more Ukrainians will be resolved to continue. It's paradoxical, I know, but think of it as kind of a Battle of Britain scenario. In other words, no matter how tough things get, they won't change their minds unless there's an acceptable alternative. And, post-2014 and Crimea, it's hard to imagine any territorial concession that won't be seen as merely an opportunity for Russia to re-arm and attack again in the future.
Again, too many variables in play to see very far ahead. Right now, as you correctly point out, the next phase of play is making it through the winter.
Simple solution: Russia withdraws and goes home.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2771301]This war is a crime against humanity, and it is a failure of both sides and believe me, both Russia and Ukraine will be far worse after this war.
You are 100% right, but when I listened to this video this morning, I was absolutely disgusted with the conduct of the Russians: [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_DyC0_K1xI[/URL].
So yeah, Putin has blood on his hands, and he and these Russian pricks are war criminals, but no one better dare tell me that the hands of Boris Johnson, Biden, and Obama are clean. It takes two to tango, and the West is not going to feed me this bullshit about how they were innocent in this war.
There have been no winners in this war. How in the world do you look at this war and say anyone is "winning"? Everyone is losing.[/QUOTE]Ukraine can't withdraw since they're fighting on home soil. And, if they unilaterally stop fighting, most of the country will end up looking like Bakhmut or Mariupol.
But Russia can stop whenever it chooses to. And yes, it "Takes Two to Tango," but it only takes one to start a fight. One can decline an invitation to dance, but declining to defend yourself when attacked is an invitation to an early grave.
War is a crime against humanity: Check.
Bad guys (arguably) on both sides: Check.
No winners: Check.
Everyone is losing: Check.
Possible Solution 1: Russia willingly stops fighting.
Possible Solution 2: Russia unwillingly stops fighting.
About 3 years between Zelensky's election and Russia's invasion.
[QUOTE=BloodRed;2771547]All Elensky had to do was to implement the Minsk accords which he didn't. Did you catch what Angela Merkel said the other day? There was never any seriousness to implement the Minsk accords, they just wanted to buy Ukraine time. What you're seeing now and in the near future will be the death of Ukraine as a state. I blame America and the West, and of course that corrupt puppet Elensky and the Bandera clan surrounding him.[/QUOTE]The idea that, after the passage of three years, some critical event happened that precipitated the Feb-24th invasion, giving Putin no choice, is ludicrous on its face. Countries have disputes all the time but they rarely choose war. As a major geopolitical player, he had many cards he could have played, but he explicitly chose military action.
Oh, and Angela Merkel has been rapidly losing face, from both sides of the issue. I don't see many quotes or references about her other than as an example of someone for whom the substance didn't match the image. And, whenever she's discussed, the reactions generally range from disappointment to anger.
Also, by any metric you use to judge Ukraine (fascism, Nazism, corruption, totalitarianism, etc.), Russia's scores will be off the charts. It's quite amusing to read people's criticism of Ukraine while they make moon-eyes at the Russian kleptocracy. But I guess any Russian citizen who doesn't like the system can just leave, right? Except, that if they're a prominent dissident, they'd be wise to avoid windows on high floors, and politely refuse any offer of polonium-laced tea.
Special Military Operation? Give me an 'effin break!
[QUOTE=BloodRed;2771741]What you fail to understand is that Putin didn't declare a full war on Ukraine on Feb 24,2022. That is why it was called a Special Military Operation. It was a limited operation with set goals with limited manpower. Putin didn't set out to destroy Ukraine, because he knew these are fellow Orthodox Slavs. Why do you think he didn't touch the Ukrainian critical infrastructure until the terrorist attack on the Crimea bridge? All that changed when the West forced Elensky to not negotiate, like he was ready to do in March 2022. Read his interviews from back then, you will know that he was ready to discuss neutrality, Crimea under Russia and the borders for the Donbass. Then Boris Johnson went to Kiev and hijacked it, that's the real tragedy. Plus, Elensky is corrupt, he's getting richer everyday with billions. It's the ordinary Ukrainian people that are suffering.
Now the gloves are off, it's a full scale war. Read what Zaluzhny said in the interview to the economist the other day. He clearly sees the writing on the wall. Unless NATO intervenes militarily, which they won't because as I said, the aim is to make Russia bleed for as long as possible, not for Ukraine to win.[/QUOTE]If your neighbor, with whom you've had long-standing disputes, knocks down your fence, drives onto your lawn, and starts shooting your family members, do you really give a fuck what they call it? Whether Putin's SMO bullshit verbiage was meant for internal consumption, or to try to give it a false veneer of legitimacy, is completely irrelevant. An invasion by hostile foreign forces, crossing internationally recognized borders, is an act of war. You can probably count the people who try to deny that fact on the fingers of one hand. It's pretty hard to take anything you say seriously when you can't even bring yourself to admit the blindingly obvious.
And it's similarly obvious that the corruption allegation can point both ways. Putin's gargantuan personal palace on the Black Sea didn't get built on a civil servant's salary, did it? You may not have noticed, but I've never specifically defended Zelensky. Whether he's a bad guy or not isn't a justification for invasion. If it were, then there's an even stronger case for taking out Putin, who has elevated corruption and kleptocratic rule to stratospheric levels.
I would assert that it's been full scale war for Ukraine since Day One. They haven't been fooled by Putin's BS verbal judo. And I'm also not hung up on the niceties of what's a legitimate military target and what isn't. I'm not surprised Putin is bombing infrastructure, and nobody should have been surprised by the Kerch Bridge strike. That bridge, and more specifically the rail line across it, was the primary conduit of military equipment into Crimea and from there into Kherson. It was always a target, appropriately so. The only surprise was that Ukraine was able to be so effective in disabling it. Kudos to them as it was probably the precipitating factor in Russia's withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro.
But you persist in trying to complicate the simple. Russia invaded, full stop. You can't credibly claim that Putin is a strong and savvy leader if you simultaneously assert that he was duped, or lured, or otherwise forced. He has always done EXACTLY what he wanted, and he wanted to invade Ukraine.
Does it make a shred of difference that Putin is corrupt and a bad guy? Nope. Does it make a shred of difference if Zelensky (per your assertion) is corrupt and a bad guy? Nope. The war (that's W-A-R) continues. Also, if Zelensky dropped dead or was removed, Ukraine would continue to defend itself. If Putin dies or is replaced, it's unclear what his successor would do. I'm not making any prediction but rather an observation that people who believe they're fighting for their homes, and very lives, have a different motivation than those who are fighting on foreign soil (and have the option of going home).
You might be surprised to hear that I actually agree with you about the point of NATO and the West giving less than full support. Maybe it's to make Russia bleed as long as possible, or maybe it's to ensure that Ukraine doesn't win too quickly and comprehensively, or maybe there are other motivations. Ukraine would certainly like more weapons like ATACMS, F-16's, modern tanks, etc. But those haven't been forthcoming.
But the salient point is that every external source of influence and support can only affect things so much. For example, it seems that Xi Xingping has influenced Putin to tone down his nuclear rhetoric, but that's not an absolute guarantee because Putin is going to do whatever he decides is best. Similarly, any influence on Zelensky to either make concessions, or refrain from making them, will not prevent him from making his own decision. In fact, I would argue that Zelensky is more constrained by Ukrainian public opinion than anything else. If he was pushed to accept concessions, while most of his people were vehemently against it, I think he'd be promptly replaced.
So, no matter how loud the noise and BS gets, and no matter how hard people try to put the focus on tangential, rather than central issues, we're still left with a full scale war. I won't make any predictions, as there are too many known and unknown variables at play. You apparently lean toward the Russian position, while I come down squarely in favor of Ukraine. But who really cares since all that matters is what happens on the battlefield? To this point, Russia's performance has been woeful. Could that change? Possibly, although I wouldn't put long odds on that happening. The next few months will be an important phase of the war. And, of the two sides, it's been the Ukrainian armed forces who have, at least so far, made the bolder and more effective moves. Let's see who does the better job of dealing with General Winter.
Glad you have a crystal ball. Please provide lottery numbers.
[QUOTE=BloodRed;2771744]Your solution is unrealistic I'm afraid.
This will be resolved (temporarily of course and then turn into a frozen conflict of sorts) on the battlefield with the defeat of Ukraine. Write this down.[/QUOTE]As I've said before, I wish I had a dollar for every Ukraine-Russia prediction that's fallen flat on its face. Write this down.
