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[QUOTE=DramaFree11;2784822]Both countries are as corrupt as Hell![/QUOTE]Russia is a mob country and Ukraine is the little crooked brother. Thing is when you have the same kind of crooks next to each other, the stronger always has to have influence over the weaker. Sadly, the Western gangsters have decided to meddle with this natural order. A recipe for disaster.
[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2787380]"Pre-invasion Ukraine is a country that no longer exists. " This is very true.
I have no problem with drawing up lists of the Ukraine's allies, enemies and the non-committal. I just don't think the Ukraine war will have far lasting repercussions with the Ukrainians' perception of other countries around the world.
Germany's prestige will take a temporary hit within the Ukraine. That won't last long because Germany's economic might will eventually pull in the Ukraine. I also suspect the Germans will play a big part in the post-war reconstruction. German business will not want to miss out.
China is big enough and powerful enough to make small inroads in the future Ukraine. The Chinese are always limited by cultural differences and suspicions around the world.
Poland and the Baltics will likely develop a closer kinship with the Ukraine, but again it will lack economic importance.
In peacetime, money speaks volumes.[/QUOTE]For anyone from that WW-II generation, especially those who actually fought in the war, or lost someone close to them, their feelings toward Germans and Japanese were vastly different than those of the generation that came after.
Think, for example, about people who directly experienced the horrors of war, like the Brits who endured bombings during the Battle of Britain. For those people, the war remains a raw wound for a long time, possibly their entire life. There's no easy way to forgive what you believe to be atrocities or to forget the loved ones who were killed by brutal aggression.
This isn't some abstract and remote war for most Ukrainians. War crimes have been committed against them. Children have been ripped from families and sent to Russia.
I simply don't agree that it'll pass as quickly as you think, or that money from those who are detested will be welcomed. Money is going to flow into Ukraine in large Marshall Plan amounts. They'll have no lack of choices among various countries and it's my guess the best contracts will go to those countries and companies who are viewed as family and friends. Germany will probably be somewhere in the middle. Ukrainians will accept German money but probably lay on a thick layer of guilt at the same time.
As with most things in the future, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
[QUOTE=Jmsuttr;2784991]Prior to last Feb 24th....
Another reason is that a population in which so many have experienced the death of family, friends, and acquaintances, are likely to be much less tolerant of corruption during a time of war. Every act of corruption will be viewed, and rightly so, as a direct betrayal of the forces fighting to defend Ukraine and an even more heinous betrayal of those who have given their lives.[/QUOTE]That's right on. At least I hope it is. Corruption is not just a blight where a few well-connected or brazen thieves benefit from ill-gotten gains to the general detriment of society overall, but now people must see it (corruption in the military, at least) as an existential threat. To Ukrainian society as a whole and perhaps to them or their loved ones personally?
Why do Russian conscripts have to buy their own clothing and gear? Because someone up the chain of command stole it and sold it elsewhere.
That has happened a in Ukraine in the past, and probably to a certain extent still, but now everybody realizes it is not harmless graft. People will suffer and die from it.
So hopefully, that will lead to a healthier attitude in society about the evil and harm of corruption and the importance of accountability. But we will see if it lasts.
[QUOTE=Jmsuttr;2787531]For anyone from that WW-II generation, especially those who actually fought in the war, or lost someone close to them, their feelings toward Germans and Japanese were vastly different than those of the generation that came after.
Think, for example, about people who directly experienced the horrors of war, like the Brits who endured bombings during the Battle of Britain. For those people, the war remains a raw wound for a long time, possibly their entire life. There's no easy way to forgive what you believe to be atrocities or to forget the loved ones who were killed by brutal aggression.
This isn't some abstract and remote war for most Ukrainians. War crimes have been committed against them. Children have been ripped from families and sent to Russia.
I simply don't agree that it'll pass as quickly as you think, or that money from those who are detested will be welcomed. Money is going to flow into Ukraine in large Marshall Plan amounts. They'll have no lack of choices among various countries and it's my guess the best contracts will go to those countries and companies who are viewed as family and friends. Germany will probably be somewhere in the middle. Ukrainians will accept German money but probably lay on a thick layer of guilt at the same time.
As with most things in the future, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.[/QUOTE]History can only be instructive to a point. Things won't be back to normal between Ukrainians and Russians simply because unlike Germany, Russia will never be occupied.
American occupation was the best thing that's ever happened to Germany and Japan. Bar none.
But because Russia can't be occupied (for more reasons than one), it's future is bleaker than bleak.
This is what's going to happen to Russia: catastrophic defeat, bloody civil war and the final dissolution of their empire. The Russian Empire will be gone for good leading to the birth of several new countries -- all corrupt, authoritarian and as economically inept as today's Russia.
Russians will never repent or regret. Instead, they'll portray themselves as a victim who lost because the whole world "conspired" to destroy them. They've already started pushing that drivel on TV.
Ukrainians will not forget and forgive, at least as quickly as the world forgave Germany in the 20th century. It'll take a hundred years if not more.
Russia will fully become a China's client state. It will turn into a giant North Korea blackmailing the world with their stockpiles of WMD.
Good night!
[QUOTE=Xpartan;2787856]History can only be instructive to a point. Things won't be back to normal between Ukrainians and Russians simply because unlike Germany, Russia will never be occupied.
American occupation was the best thing that's ever happened to Germany and Japan. Bar none.
But because Russia can't be occupied (for more reasons than one), it's future is bleaker than bleak.
This is what's going to happen to Russia: catastrophic defeat, bloody civil war and the final dissolution of their empire. The Russian Empire will be gone for good leading to the birth of several new countries -- all corrupt, authoritarian and as economically inept as today's Russia.
Russians will never repent or regret. Instead, they'll portray themselves as a victim who lost because the whole world "conspired" to destroy them. They've already started pushing that drivel on TV.
Ukrainians will not forget and forgive, at least as quickly as the world forgave Germany in the 20th century. It'll take a hundred years if not more.
Russia will fully become a China's client state. It will turn into a giant North Korea blackmailing the world with their stockpiles of WMD.
Good night![/QUOTE]I wasn't trying to make wide-ranging historical comparisons, only the limited one of pointing out that the generation who fights the war has stronger emotions, and more raw wounds, than those who come after.
That being said, I don't disagree with the general gist of your post. Russia is facing a bleak future although there are a few different ways their path might go. One interesting variable will be how much longer Putin is around, and who takes over after he dies or is removed. That's something I think we'll see sooner rather than later.
[QUOTE=VinDici;2748306]The Americans did not bomb Nordstream 2, it was the Russians. Evidence will be found soon enough, I'm so confident I will happily place a wager on this, do you want to take me up on this? I will bet that it was not the Americans, will you take the bet?[/QUOTE]I'll take that bet.
[QUOTE=Riina;2788821]I'll take that bet.[/QUOTE]Much more likely Germany did it. There are still many sympathisers of Russia there. While the pipelines existed there were always voices wanting to appease Russia to turn the gas back on. Fter the bombing that option disappeared as did the rationale for making deals with Russia.
[QUOTE=VinDici;2748306]The Americans did not bomb Nordstream 2, it was the Russians. Evidence will be found soon enough, I'm so confident I will happily place a wager on this, do you want to take me up on this? I will bet that it was not the Americans, will you take the bet?[/QUOTE]I think it was neither Americans nor Russians. Pols hate the Russians more than Ukrainians hate the Russians even after being bombed. Location location and location. Poland has more than enough knowhow to conduct such an operation, let alone knowledge of the sea floor right off their coast. The fact that the investigation didn't come up with anything solid points to a likely uncomfortable conclusion and in my mind it would mean Poland. The Ukrainians themselves could've done it. Soviet expertise could never be underestimated. Even a well organized private operation could've been conducted.
Both Russia and the US definitely a possibility. I can't see what Russia gains out of it. I can see however what the US gains out of it. Still if I had to put my money on something now. I'd put it on Poland.
[QUOTE=Riina;2788821]I'll take that bet.[/QUOTE][URL]https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream[/URL]
The President of RF could have just stopped the supply with a stroke of a pen as part of anti-sanctions mechanism and prevent Gazprom's exports.
[QUOTE=Riina;2788821]I'll take that bet.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Questner;2788960][URL]https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream[/URL]
The President of RF could have just stopped the supply with a stroke of a pen as part of anti-sanctions mechanism and prevent Gazprom's exports.[/QUOTE]Right. What do you think Russia is afraid of more sanctions or something? The US on the other hand have been trying to stop Russian gas and oil deliveries to Europe since way before Russo-Ukrainian war, in fact if I remember correctly even before 2014, like way before. Now with its chief competitor no more viable the US is beginning to transport its gas and oil to Europe. One up for the US!
"The President of RF could have just stopped the supply with a stroke of a pen".
Not if they wanted to avoid legal actions.
Not if they wanted to get an insurance payoff.
Not if they wanted to raise gas prices.
Not if they wanted to threaten the new Baltic pipeline and other infrastructure projects.
Not if they tried to sow as much chaos as possible, which is What. They. Always. Do.
These little blame games are such a good, clean fun for Russia's apologists -- I almost feel guilty debunking them.
So getting the heck out of Domodevodo (Dodge)! I'm surprised Putin didn't just slam the exits shut to prevent so many people from running away from crappy Russia and [B]his[/B] war.
[URL]https://apple.news/AnAdpMhPKQA6jGqp3xcs1Jw[/URL]
[QUOTE=Nrlmus;2788955]I can't see what Russia gains out of it.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Questner;2788960]The President of RF could have just stopped the supply with a stroke of a pen as part of anti-sanctions mechanism and prevent Gazprom's exports.[/QUOTE]Let me put it simply. There are long term supply contracts in place. If Russia simply stop delivering, they are in breach of contract, and every other country that has contracts with them will see that they are an unreliable partner who cannot be trusted to keep their word.
If suddenly the pipeline fails, then the result is same in that gas is not supplied, but RF is not in breach of contract.
This is why it is RF that did the bombing, so they could apply pressure on Europe without having to be in formal breach of contract.
As with most things, the simplest explanation is most often the truth.
[QUOTE=VinDici;2789099]Let me put it simply. There are long term supply contracts in place. If Russia simply stop delivering, they are in breach of contract, and every other country that has contracts with them will see that they are an unreliable partner who cannot be trusted to keep their word.
If suddenly the pipeline fails, then the result is same in that gas is not supplied, but RF is not in breach of contract.
This is why it is RF that did the bombing, so they could apply pressure on Europe without having to be in formal breach of contract.
As with most things, the simplest explanation is most often the truth.[/QUOTE]Just thinking to myself, this is why its crazy for Russia to playing the hand of an aggressor. Russia's economic welfare is intertwined with Western commerce. Is there much hope for the Russian economy while they continue to be the bully in the region? Do they really want to go back to being isolated from the world?
There's China, but China still needs Western markets for its goods.
[QUOTE=VinDici;2789099]Let me put it simply. There are long term supply contracts in place. If Russia simply stop delivering, they are in breach of contract, and every other country that has contracts with them will see that they are an unreliable partner who cannot be trusted to keep their word..[/QUOTE]That's right, just forget about the other side of the contract, the one where you know, the party that receives the Russian oil has to like pay for it.