[QUOTE=VinDici;2793310]It elaborates that Under Beijing's new directive, Vladivostok once again is called Haishenwai (meaning Sea Cucumber Bay)"[/QUOTE]That's pretty slimy. .
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[QUOTE=VinDici;2793310]It elaborates that Under Beijing's new directive, Vladivostok once again is called Haishenwai (meaning Sea Cucumber Bay)"[/QUOTE]That's pretty slimy. .
[QUOTE=VinDici;2793310][URL]https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13560[/URL]
"China's Ministry of Natural Resources has just issued new regulations on map content, which require the addition of old Chinese names to the current Russian-pronounced geographical names of eight places along the Russian-Chinese border," Radio France International in Chinese reported on Feb. 23.
It elaborates that Under Beijing's new directive, Vladivostok once again is called Haishenwai (meaning Sea Cucumber Bay) while Sakhalin Island is called Kuyedao. The Stanovoy Range is back to being called the Outer Xing'an Range in Chinese. ".
Looks like the Sinofication of Russia has begun.[/QUOTE]Is simply this: Why now?
The centuries-old tensions between Russia and China are well known. And the current attitude of caution and guardedness between the two is no secret. And yet, in the midst of all the rhetoric about the existence of a close partnership, Comrade Xi sends this message to his "good friend" Putin.
It seems to me that several layers of potential meaning are implied, none of them likely to be seen as positive by Russia. And it's also noteworthy that something like this would not have happened without prior approval at the highest levels.
Which brings us right back to the big question: Why now?
[QUOTE=Locamotive;2793114]Oh that's easy. Staying there he looks like some kind of martyr and he is really in no danger in Kiev. So far. Idiot Biden is not sending him millions but billion's which we have no accounting of. Oh he has a exit plan, just not yet until he can bleed them out of billions more. Without boots from the West all will be lost in a few months as they will run out of soldiers, he will bolt.[/QUOTE]What a fun game! Hey, wait, here's another:
Putin is going to keep sending his untrained and unarmed troops to be slaughtered and, just before he's about to be overthrown and killed by a group of Russian generals and elites, he's going to host an orgy at his palace and set off a tactical nuke while he has his dick in some young model's mouth. Male model or female, doesn't matter. All he cares about is the orgasmic explosion at the end.
Please notice carefully that this "plan" has exactly the same factual foundation as yours. Wasn't that fun?
[QUOTE=Xpartan;2793286]Can anyone with half a brain not see where THIS is going?
[B]Why Chinese farmers have crossed border into Russia's Far East[/B]..[/QUOTE]Well, I don't like you, but I agree. I was at a major medical institution the other day and can confirm we are fully infiltrated.
[QUOTE=DramaFree11;2793086]Good to see you are smoking the same crap L. M. I also invited you to meet me in person, but of course you never took me up on the invitation. It is much easier to sit behind your computer, and make crap up.
Yes, I lived in Kiev, at that time it was great, then corruption took over. Also, many of my friends stopped traveling to Kiev and most of the girls we knew left Ukraine for better opportunities, but if you were an expert on Ukraine you would have a similar experience. Now L. M. , has never been to Ukraine, probably just like Colombia, but why would that stop him from spreading lies about myself and others.
Now MDE, sucks ass, I wish I would have never stepped foot in Colombia, I hated it, but I think you like it. This shows that I have some standards unlike you and your fellow MDE losers. L. M. Would fit in perfectly in MDE. He is cheap, bitter and jealous, just like the rest of you guys. I will be in MTY next weekend feel free to join me. That would be to easy..[/QUOTE]Consider the possible outcomes:
1. Russia's ability to support the war effort, militarily or economically (or both), becomes so depleted that they're forced to withdraw from Ukraine. That would be the kind of loss that no amount of propaganda could whitewash and would likely result in severe negative shocks throughout Russian government and society. Externally there will be strong motivation to hold Russia accountable for their aggression. That would likely mean reparations, war crimes trials, continuation of some sanctions, etc.
2. The West falters in their support of Ukraine and Russia prevails. Assuming that means achieving effective control of all (or most) of Ukraine's territory, the long term challenge will be to hold it in the face of what will surely be a robust "underground" resistance movement. Sanctions will almost certainly continue, in fact it's likely they'll be increased. Poland, the Baltics, and the Nordics will move to prepare for the next phase of Russian expansionism, as will NATO. Moldova will urgently seek NATO membership, or some kind of security arrangement, because they'll see themselves as the next target. In short, ALL of Europe will be on a knife-edge. For all those who currently worry about a Russia-NATO war, with WW-III implications, you ain't seen nothing yet!
3. Something in between #1 and #2, like a partial withdrawal by Russia. But, whether they withdraw to pre-invasion borders or something else, this has no possibility of forming the foundation of any kind of lasting peace. Whether it's a hot war, cold war, ceasefire, or other arrangement, Ukraine will never concede an inch of their territory (as defined by the post-Soviet internationally recognized border) to Russia. Which means that any partial outcome is likely to be nothing more than a lull before the next storm. Just like Russia's invasion in 2014 was a precursor to this one, anything less than a comprehensive peace will contain the seeds of the next conflict. Oh, and all the above elements, like sanctions, war preparations, and so forth, will likely continue.
Pre-invasion Russia no longer exists, and it's not coming back. Putin flushed his geopolitical influence down the toilet. Europe has found new energy suppliers and Russia has been reduced to cannibalizing washing machines for parts. Any reliance on China is likely to carry a high cost.
Pre-invasion Ukraine is also a thing of the past. But they have a path forward as they want to be in the EU, and the EU wants them. For that to happen, they'll need to shed the Soviet legacy of corruption. How long that will take is hard to say. But all the evidence points to a high level of motivation for making any changes required. And the EU will be looking at Ukraine under a microscope, so any changes will need to be real and substantial. Ukraine as a member of the EU + possible NATO membership + Western money flooding in for reconstruction = many possible positive paths and outcomes.
In stark contrast, all the pathways and outcomes for Russia are bad. And I mean North Korea, pariah-state bad.
[QUOTE=Riina;2793058]Maybe so, but Ukraine will be its first tute.[/QUOTE]War does interesting things. Not least of which is forging bonds that would never have formed otherwise. With respect to relationships between Ukraine and countries like Poland, the Baltics, the UK, and the Nordics, there's no comparison between pre-invasion times and now. And some of those relationships have moved beyond friendship into the realm of brotherhood.
Russia, in stark contrast, has squandered any goodwill they may have had. They're stuck in a small room with the likes of North Korea and Iran, and somebody just let out a fart!
From 0:32.
[URL]https://youtu.be/RYhL6p5EO1s[/URL]
As we say 'The circus left but the clowns stayed'.
[QUOTE=Riina;2793333]China Is Not Our Friend
Well, I don't like you, but I agree. I was at a major medical institution the other day and can confirm we are fully infiltrated.[/QUOTE]What? You don't like me? Gee, that hurts. . .
But you seem to misunderstand the current situation.
China is not supposed to be your friend.
China is the master, and Russia is a client state.
They say jump, you ask how high. That's how it works. Nothing personal, just business.
[QUOTE=Jmsuttr;2793338]Consider the possible outcomes:
1. Russia's ability to support the war effort, militarily or economically (or both), becomes so depleted that they're forced to withdraw from Ukraine. That would be the kind of loss that no amount of propaganda could whitewash and would likely result in severe negative shocks throughout Russian government and society. Externally there will be strong motivation to hold Russia accountable for their aggression. That would likely mean reparations, war crimes trials, continuation of some sanctions, etc.
2. The West falters in their support of Ukraine and Russia prevails. Assuming that means achieving effective control of all (or most) of Ukraine's territory, the long term challenge will be to hold it in the face of what will surely be a robust "underground" resistance movement. Sanctions will almost certainly continue, in fact it's likely they'll be increased. Poland, the Baltics, and the Nordics will move to prepare for the next phase of Russian expansionism, as will NATO. Moldova will urgently seek NATO membership, or some kind of security arrangement, because they'll see themselves as the next target. In short, ALL of Europe will be on a knife-edge. For all those who currently worry about a Russia-NATO war, with WW-III implications, you ain't seen nothing yet!
3. Something in between #1 and #2, like a partial withdrawal by Russia. But, whether they withdraw to pre-invasion borders or something else, this has no possibility of forming the foundation of any kind of lasting peace. Whether it's a hot war, cold war, ceasefire, or other arrangement, Ukraine will never concede an inch of their territory (as defined by the post-Soviet internationally recognized border) to Russia. Which means that any partial outcome is likely to be nothing more than a lull before the next storm. Just like Russia's invasion in 2014 was a precursor to this one, anything less than a comprehensive peace will contain the seeds of the next conflict. Oh, and all the above elements, like sanctions, war preparations, and so forth, will likely continue.[/QUOTE]I'd venture with #4. Russia's not only forced to withdraw the troops from Ukraine (including Crimea of course) -- it's finally breaking up. The horrific civil war erupts, the likes of which has never been seen. Dozens of new warring states claim their own spot on the map, and some of them, most hostile to Moscow, are tacitly supported by Ukraine. All that becomes a nightmare to the West due to thousands of nuclear warheads that have fallen into the hands of local warlords who're willing to sell to a higher bidder.
[QUOTE=Questner;2793344]As we say 'The circus left but the clowns stayed'.[/QUOTE]We as in "the clowns" ?
[QUOTE=DramaFree11;2793086]If Pres. Z. , really cared he would be looking for a compromise to end this war, but instead he just keeps moving forward. His country is being destroyed and so many are being killed. If this is winning then, then Ukraine is definitely winning. Ukraine always loses, that is what they are good at, beside corruption, tine will tell.[/QUOTE]Yeah, right now I'm not sure I see the grand compromise that brings an end to the hostilities long-term. By long-term, I mean a peace agreement is reached and Russia leaves the Ukraine alone without constant pressure indefinitely.
While I don't have the certain optimism of some other pro-Ukraine members here, I think you are painting an incomplete picture. The Ukraine has decided being a Russian satellite is not their future. Russia has forced this decision to be an existential choice for the Ukrainians.
[QUOTE=Xpartan;2793379]I'd venture with #4. Russia's not only forced to withdraw the troops from Ukraine (including Crimea of course) -- it's finally breaking up. The horrific civil war erupts, the likes of which has never been seen. Dozens of new warring states claim their own spot on the map, and some of them, most hostile to Moscow, are tacitly supported by Ukraine. All that becomes a nightmare to the West due to thousands of nuclear warheads that have fallen into the hands of local warlords who're willing to sell to a higher bidder.[/QUOTE]That's certainly a possibility but, at this point, it's difficult to predict exactly how the fault lines might fracture. Whatever kind of civil war might break out would be limited by the fact that most of the available working weapons systems have been sent to the Ukraine front. That means any internal conflicts would primarily be of a small-arms nature.
With respect to nuclear weapons, it's my guess that the major nuclear powers, including China, are not going to sit on the sidelines and let those fall into just any hands, esp not those of terrorists or potential terrorists. They may play a direct part in securing the nukes or they may back those regional leaders or factions willing to guarantee the safety of nuclear assets.
In short, while the shit-show you describe could certainly happen, it's not inevitable. If the Kremlin-based govt weakens or falls then various regions might declare autonomy (1st step) and move later to independence (2nd step). Of course, some might jump straight to, step 2. Either way, they're likely to immediately form alliances to bolster their own security. Regions that are close to China or Turkey could reach out to their stronger neighbor for protection. Or regions in Russia's interior could band together. Again, it's hard to predict, but it doesn't necessarily need to devolve as drastically as you suggest.
That being said, this is the path that might have played out after the fall of the USSR. But the regions might not yet have been ripe for independence, and the central power structures were still strong. But I would still argue that this a long delayed final stage of the USSR's breakup. It's like a domino that's been teetering, refusing to fall, until now.
[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2793493]Yeah, right now I'm not sure I see the grand compromise that brings an end to the hostilities long-term. By long-term, I mean a peace agreement is reached and Russia leaves the Ukraine alone without constant pressure indefinitely.
While I don't have the certain optimism of some other pro-Ukraine members here, I think you are painting an incomplete picture. The Ukraine has decided being a Russian satellite is not their future. Russia has forced this decision to be an existential choice for the Ukrainians.[/QUOTE]My heart is certainly on the side of Ukraine, as I believe they have the moral high ground. No matter what criticisms, real or alleged, can be levied against pre-invasion Ukraine, there is no disputing the fact that Russia invaded (not the other way around) and Ukraine has every right to defend their lives and land.
Setting my feelings of support to one side, it's absolutely true that battlefield and geopolitical outcomes will be affected by a host of variables, some of which we don't even know. For example, both Russia and Ukraine understandably keep secret many crucial items of information about the state of their militaries and economies. And, with respect to information that does leak out, it's hard to know for sure if it's accurate, partially accurate, or outright disinformation. And then there are variables that lie in the future, such as how much Western support will continue to flow into Ukraine, for how long, and what will it consist of? Also, will Russia receive any meaningful outside assistance and will it be enough to mitigate battlefield losses?
But, despite the uncertainty, I would argue that it's still a useful exercise to look at the various possible outcomes and evaluate the relative probability of each. Here's one example:
Russia receives military and economic support from Iran, China, India, North Korea, and a few other countries. Of those, it's really only aid from China that has the potential to materially affect the balance on the battlefield. But China, no matter what rhetoric comes out of Moscow or Beijing, has to walk a tightrope as they don't want to become a target of Western sanctions. China's economy is highly dependent on European and US markets and they have plenty of economic issues on their plate without inviting more. That essentially means that outside support levels for Russia have limited upside.
Ukraine's outside support is more complicated as it spans the spectrum from quick and unqualified (Poland, Baltics, Nordics, etc.) to slow and grudging (Germany, France, etc.). But the main difference is that Western support doesn't have the same limitations. It's simply a question of willingness and determination to stay the course. So far, whenever the possibility of "support fatigue" has come up, there's been enough outcry to light a fire under reluctant leaders. Neither Germany or the US were going to provide advanced tanks until pressure from Poland and others was brought to bear. A similar debate is now happening with respect to aircraft and long-range missiles, and it won't surprise me if those weapons systems are provided before long. Compared with Russia's prospects for support, I would argue that Ukraine's has more upside potential.
So, to conjure up a mental picture, it's a bit like two sets of dominoes which, once the lead domino for each is tipped, will lead to cascades of dominoes rippling down different branched paths. While it's not possible to know in advance which branches will reach which endpoints, it is possible to make observations and judgments as to the percentage of positive vs negative endpoints that exist for each set. So that's the basis of my optimism for Ukraine. Not because I have any kind of crystal ball, but simply because I see more positive endpoint probabilities for them than I do for Russia.
The former Georgian President, a buffoon who chewed on his tie, is now a hospitalized mental case. As we say 'clowns never die they just change each other at the scene'. Clowns are like cockroaches, there is never only one.
[QUOTE=Questner;2793665]The former Georgian President, a buffoon who chewed on his tie, is now a hospitalized mental case. As we say 'clowns never die they just change each other at the scene'. Clowns are like cockroaches, there is never only one.[/QUOTE]Which explains his problems. What's your excuse?