He definitely went further than he has before
[QUOTE=Xpartan;2800884]This is actually a clip I meant when I said that Girkin has begun criticizing Putin the way he never did before. And criticizing might even be a wrong word here. Telling Putin to shut up and calling him a "rug" (bad translation BTW, it sounds much worse in Russian, like spineless or gutless) used to be unthinkable. In his earlier clips, Girkin carefully avoided badmouthing Putin, focusing instead on his henchmen, but not anymore. I think after the failures on the battlefield and the latest ICC announcement, FSB has shifted into a higher gear. In other words, I don't see Girkin taking this risk without at least a tacit approval from his superiors, but we'll see.[/QUOTE]But that clip still came across (at least to me) as being more pointedly directed at Putin's failed advisers. But there's no question that Girkin uses that device as a thin veil for criticism of Putin himself. And there's also no question that he's changed his focus from the failures of the military leadership to the failures within the Kremlin itself.
In this latest clip he used the ICC arrest warrant as his excuse. It'll be interesting to see what he says in the coming days. If he goes back to bashing generals, that's one possible path. If he continues to focus on Putin, no matter what he uses as a facade, that'll be a significant change, IMO. He has nowhere to go, so his survival depends on how well he's protected and how well he can navigate treacherous waters.
Style aside, he's been demonstrably wrong on substance
[QUOTE=Questner;2801108]There is always a way to take an honest comparison between his resume and anyone else's on this board. There were some goofs on TAC related to the WWII. His reviews are a bit synthetic and he is promoting his book but overall he is right on the assessment. You can always say him face to face of your opinion of him. No matter of his character in your eyes, he is just a messenger. So let's not deflect from the message. There is another thing which I always find amusing, it's taking everything you hear on face value. You don't need to be a warmonger to be a patriot. Nowadays when you open any article on any MM you read 'this is what you have to know'. No, you just have do your homework. And by the way, since RT's accounts in the US have been closed the best way for us to pay him in a truly American way is to buy his books. Thank you for your response.[/QUOTE]MacGregor is just one of many pundits who are selling their opinions on the airwaves and internet. If all you care about is finding someone who is consistently pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, then he's a great choice, as is convicted pedophile Scott Ritter.
But, if you value ACCURATE analysis, MacGregor is an abject failure. He's made quite a few predictions and every one has been completely WRONG.
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He's like the guy who conceitedly thinks he can time the market and consistently loses money for those foolish enough to listen to him. Seriously, if you were placing bets on the accuracy of his predictions, you'd be in the poorhouse.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But, after multiple wrong predictions, only a fool would continue to view MacGregor as anything other than one of many talking heads who are using this crisis to get a few moments in the spotlight.
Nice crystal ball ya got there! Too bad it's cloudy and cracked.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2801249]Sure, the Russians fucked up in WW2 as badly as any other European country and they just had more land in which to retreat. And yeah, there was land-lease and the USA sent in an ungodly amount of supplies, but Ukraine is not as strong as Germany was either.
The way the Russians fight is to have a corrupt dumb as shit PC military leader in place, and he loses his ass and then someone competent is put in charge. The Russians then use their superior number of bodies to wear down their opposition and win. The average Russian male still carries with him a slave / serf mindset and does what he is told albeit often when drunk.
As for Putin, others noticed what I did, the swollen face and tremor. The speculation is that he has cancer and / or Parkinson's. You got a guy without all his marbles who has his hand on the nuclear button and there is talk of victory? Regardless of the war, Putin's days are numbered. It would not surprise me if he is not the one making decisions now he is so far gone.
In the near future, you have the problem of declining Ukrainian grain and sunflower exports and loss of fertilizer from Belarus and Russia which could lead to world famine. The world dodged a bullet in 2022. Europe had a warm winter and harvests were plentiful.
Then you have bank failures. How much money is going to flow into Ukraine if Western economies are brought into recession? Switzerland got hit with a banking crisis and Germany appears next. If the Republicans win in 2024, the funding for Ukraine is going to be scrutinized much more.
My question about this war has always been: what is victory for Ukraine? That is what everyone pro-Ukrainian keeps talking about, and I do not get what that means. I do get what victory is for American defense contractors and that is perpetual war and to me, that seems to be where we are at.[/QUOTE]Hard to know where to start with the debunking.
1. There is zero evidence that Russia is replacing incompetent military leaders with competent ones. The factual basis for that statement is that Russia's military position has consistently deteriorated. After the high point reached post-invasion things have moved steadily backwards for Putin's military. Changing generals has had about the same effect as rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
2. Russia in 2023 is not the USSR of the WW-II era. And a defensive battle that might be waged with 'human wave' tactics, like at Stalingrad, is a far cry from trying to wage an offensive campaign when enemy forces have modern weapons capable of shredding your cannon fodder AND decimating your logistics at the same time. Using the tactics you espouse, Russians have been trying to capture Bakhmut for about 9 months and they STILL haven't succeeded. And that's a single, solitary city.
3. Predictions about the food supply are about as reliable as the so-called "energy apocalypse" that never materialized. Most of the world supports Ukraine, to one degree or another. And I have no doubt that, as past challenges have been overcome, those in the future will be dealt with similarly.
4. Bank failures? Is that all you've got? There is absolutely nothing going on now in the financial world that can even compare to the financial crisis of 2008, or the Greek debt crisis that threatened to rip the EU apart. Those were painful, to be sure, but they were dealt with. And you know what the cherry is on the top of that cake? It's that China will be at the forefront of helping to stabilize global finances. That's simply because China needs the West about 1000% more than it needs Russia.
5. If Republicans win in 2024, Biden remains in office until January of 2025. That's almost two years from now, which is close to twice as long as the war has lasted so far. There isn't anyone who has a clue about where things will be at that point in time. So many 'solid' predictions made in Feb 2022 have already failed so miserably that it's a fool's errand to repeat that same exercise. Besides, Republicans are divided when it comes to Ukraine. And, even as a lame duck, Biden can front-load and institutionalize aid for Ukraine such that it will stretch further than most people can imagine.
Victory in Ukraine isn't rocket science. It simply requires Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian territory. Putin can't do that because it'll be such an epic failure that he'd likely suffer the same fate as Mussolini, unless he opted for Hitler's way out. So the key for Ukraine is to continue to degrade Russia's battlefield capabilities and keep regaining territory. The next few months will be hugely important. I'm not in the prediction business but we should be in for some real fireworks.
If it's not his role to predict, then why does he do so?
[QUOTE=Questner;2801373]I don't know. It's not his role to predict and make false prophecies. The wheels of history are slow and maybe we shall see how this is going to end. The decision to leave Afghanistan was made in 2011 and ended in a debacle ten years later: loosing to goat herders in sandals.[/QUOTE]You might want to face the reality of McGregor's repeated predictions, which have all crashed and burned.
[URL]https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4140076/posts[/URL]
You've obviously created a fantasy figure who bears little resemblance to the real thing.
I think it's called "copium," and maybe there's an app that can help.
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From losing to Goat herders to embracing Goat fuckers
[QUOTE=Questner;2801373]I don't know. It's not his role to predict and make false prophecies. The wheels of history are slow and maybe we shall see how this is going to end. The decision to leave Afghanistan was made in 2011 and ended in a debacle ten years later: loosing to goat herders in sandals.[/QUOTE]His job as a RuZZian mouthpiece is to exactly spread falsehoods. How do you know a RuZZian is lying? His lips are moving.
And the Soviets? Lost to the Taliban when they had even lower level of tech than sandals, and now has to rely on the goat fuckers to shore up the army, what an absolute joke.
Changing the subject is a transparently lame tactic.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2801242]Give us a single instance where you have been right about anything JC. How many Covid boosters you at now? Now that the misinformation, disinformation board has been dissolved, are you looking for work?[/QUOTE]The vax status of anyone (you, JC, Donald Trump, MacGregor, Putin, etc.) has zero relevance to the Russia-Ukraine war. Trying to change the subject with an ad hominem against another forum member simply demonstrates that you have no substantive point to make.
