General Info

To those who have it to defend themselves in the event that something happens. I am assuming you put it in your carry on luggage. What about the chongos that have security at the front that pat you down? I think that at night when mongering would be the best and most necessary time to carry the pepper spray, so it would defeat the purpose of having to leave it back in the hotel room.

[QUOTE=Otravezencolmbia]To those who have it to defend themselves in the event that something happens. I am assuming you put it in your carry on luggage. What about the chongos that have security at the front that pat you down? I think that at night when mongering would be the best and most necessary time to carry the pepper spray, so it would defeat the purpose of having to leave it back in the hotel room.[/QUOTE]

You do not want to put pepper spray in your carry on luggage. This could land you in jail.

Hey Tunguraghua, [blue][Non-English text deleted by Admin][/blue]

[QUOTE=Tungurahua]Further news browsing led me to some new twists in the story.

In the last post I noted Ecuador's foreign reserves plummeted from about $6 billion US to $4.5 billion US during Q4 2008. Social spending would account for some, sure, but nothing that drastic. It had me curious. Why the sudden drop?

Then I found this bit. Quote: "On Thursday (Dec11-2008) the Quito-based newspaper El Comercio reported that the government had quietly bought back $680 million in debt from foreign creditors in recent weeks. It has raised the possibility that Ecuador may have purposely been trying to drive down the value of its bonds on international markets, allowing the government to step in and buy them back for a fraction of the cost of honoring them and making a renegotiation of the debt easier now."

Dec 13 article: "Ecuador's President Rafael Correa said yesterday that his nation is defaulting on its foreign debt, fulfilling his longtime populist pledge to leave international creditors in the lurch. ... Bondholders could be in for a steep haircut, though perhaps no worse than current market value for Ecuador's debt. As expectations of a default grew since September, the value of Ecuador's bonds fell more than 65 percent, to 30 cents on the dollar before Correa's announcement at 2 p.m. yesterday. They sank below 24 cents on the dollar shortly after his announcement."

[url]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/12/AR2008121204105_pf.html[/url]
[url]http://seekingalpha.com/article/116119-ecuador-chronicles-of-a-default-foretold[/url]

In the last post I noted : "Less than two weeks after the bond default Ecuador's state-owned Social Security Institute (SSI) said it will buy about $500 million in new government bonds after it purchased $700 million of the securities the week previous."

Hmmm, let's put the pieces together: $680 million in debt repurchased, repackaged and sold to SSI for the nice round figure of $700 million. Then another $500 million in debt purchased, sold to SSI. That would be $1.18 billion accounted for of the $1.5 billion in foreign reserves burned through in Q4.

If Correa repurchased Ecuador's debt at an average of 30 cents on the dollar, $3.9 billion could be bought for $1.17 billion. I do not know if this is a valid picture what is happening "behind-the-scenes" but the numbers balance.

I am no expert in international finance but one would think there would be a barrage of lawsuits launched if this is what Correa is doing. This strikes me as a derivative of "insider-trading" -- ??

Quote: "Critics say the government may be playing a high-stakes game of chicken with investors."

Other bits: "Ecuador has hired Lazard Freres, an advisory firm that helped Argentina after its debt default, to oversee the restructuring of $3.2 billion in unpaid global bonds, President Rafael Correa said on Saturday." (Jan17 article)

Quote: "“Ecuador is a serial defaulter,” said Arturo Porzecanski, an expert in international finance, emerging markets and Latin America economics at American University in Washington, D.C. “They defaulted in the 1980s, 1990s and this decade. A lot of other countries have had one or two defaults, but Ecuador tops them all.” Indeed, Ecuador has defaulted six times in its history (see Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises by Federico Sturzenegger and Jeromin Zettelmeyer)."

I have to laugh at this last quote. Ecuador has defaulted six times in its history. Averaging one default per decade in the last thirty years. One has to wonder who is the bigger idiot here. The people defaulting or the people financing?

Whatever the case, the optimistic scenario is Correa could navigate this high-stakes gamble to success. After the dust settles, say five years, a bunch of new lenders step in with billions more.

As all variables are never known, the pessimistic outcome is Ecuador driven off the highest of Andean cliffs by Correa and his advisors. As rockers System of a Down would sing: "Trust in my self-righteous suicide!"[/QUOTE][size=-2][b][u]EDITOR'S NOTE[/u]:[/b] [blue]This report was edited to [u]remove text not in English[/u]. While I encourage contributions from all members, the Forum is an English-only website. Please do not post reports in any language other than English unless accompanied by a full English translation.[i]Thanks![/i][/blue][/size]

Tung & TM, thanks for the interesting read on the Ecuadorian economic situation. I have thought about that as well, how does a country which does not issue its own currency survive when their main export market has dropped substantially such as Ecuador? It would be interesting to see if people would even accept a local currency, except maybe at the point of a gun, it would create a massive blackmarket for US$, and yes, could lead to some interesting times in the chongos (almost said casas! )

All hell breaking loose of course has positives and negatives. I have never been to Ecuador, but wish to go late June, so after the upcoming elections, which I would assume Correa will win, even if he cheats. The negative is that one could wind up in a Thailand situation, riots and closing down the airport, so you can't get the hell out, but on the positive, keeps down the gringo rabble, so as chica supply expands, and demand drops, prices will of course follow, which is the exact opposite of what has happened in Medellin. Tung, I will be following your fascinating, onthespot reporting, forget CNN, ISG on the ground, far better!

Chucha. I didn't read the rules. Sorry.

Hi Furysys,

People in Ecuador take about anything and don't do much about it, that's mainly why they are where they are. So the new currency will be accepted, especially when at first it will be presented as a 2 currency situation with parity (1:1) between them. Go to the Anal Connoisseurs Thread, it's much the same: first one finger, then 2 and then the main event :-)

Yes, black market, expending chica supply (for all the wrong reasons, granted) and some riots. On the other hand, Ecuadorians have thrown out 3 presidents so far (Abdala, Mahaud and Gutierrez) with a TOTAL of 3-5 days mild riots, 2 days airport closures and little or no consequences for tourists. Life went on as usual, except for the vicinity of the Government Palace and Congress.

So main effect MAY be for the Center chongos...Just go to the north ones as Chicas are not too politically active and would rather work then demonstrate in a tear gas cloud :-)

[QUOTE=Dirty Willy]You do not want to put pepper spray in your carry on luggage. This could land you in jail.[/QUOTE]Ok I think i mistyped. I meant to say you obviously would put it on your checked baggage.

[QUOTE=Otravezencolmbia]Ok I think i mistyped. I meant to say you obviously would put it on your checked baggage.[/QUOTE]

Pepper spray is also illegal in some countries. I recall reading about some places that it would be treated the same as if you had a gun. So, double check that all places you're going that it's allowed.

[QUOTE=Jaimito Cartero]Pepper spray is also illegal in some countries. I recall reading about some places that it would be treated the same as if you had a gun. So, double check that all places you're going that it's allowed.[/QUOTE]I will be in Ecuador and Colombia only.

Anyone know of a good dentist in Quito. I had some fillings done in Pattaya last year and had one fall out and I've heard that dental work is inexpensive in Ecuador.

Thanks

Hi,

I was just wondering what the service charge is when you go to a restaurant? Usually this is a tip in most places I've been to. But here I've been to places that charge it then ask for a tip as well.

So is it a tax or a tip or something else?

Thanks,

BB

[QUOTE=Bigben0]Hi,

I was just wondering what the service charge is when you go to a restaurant? Usually this is a tip in most places I've been to. But here I've been to places that charge it then ask for a tip as well.

So is it a tax or a tip or something else?

Thanks,

BB[/QUOTE]Here is not like in the US. You leave the tip you want to. In some places tips are included (you have to look at the fine print). It ussually is 10% of the total. Then they add a 12% tax. If they ask you for an extra tip it's up to you if you want to leave it. I don't.

Chaps do you have any information regarding buying Vitamin V or C in Quito. In Argentina they sale Local brand Sildenafil and Magnum with excellent performance and good value for money (If buy in bulk under a $ for 50mg)

Any information regarding brand name, where to buy it and price would be great help. And any comments on performance I. E. Vs Viagra or Cialis would be great.

Thanks

J

[QUOTE=Otravezencolmbia]I will be in Ecuador and Colombia only.[/QUOTE]

Well, you can purchase pepper spray over the counter in a sporting good store at the Quicentro Mall in Quito. They have a most powerful brand that costs a few dollars. I tested it in the toilet, and nearly choked.

[QUOTE=Model500]Here is not like in the US. You leave the tip you want to. In some places tips are included (you have to look at the fine print). It ussually is 10% of the total. Then they add a 12% tax. If they ask you for an extra tip it's up to you if you want to leave it. I don't.[/QUOTE]

The 10% on the bill is intended for the kitchen staff and those that aren't the server. The server is supposed to keep the tip you leave at the table. This is how it "should" work but it's not necessarily reality many times in restaurants as the owners steal the tips.

David B.