Putin is a rabid dog that needs to be put down
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2803303]The problem with your absolutism JM is the hypocrisy. You make the Hilter comparison but fail to mention that Putin unlike Hitler has nukes capable of destroying the world.
For all the venom you spit, when it comes to the chance of nuclear war, all of a sudden Putin is the most rational person on earth and as compassionate as Mother Theresa.
War mongers prodded and provoked Putin, and now you want to tell us how evil he is. Why the hell did you provoke him in the first place then? What does it say about you guys that you poked, prodded, and provoked the bear? That you are the good guys?
And now come back and tell me I am a Putin lover because honestly that is all you have left.[/QUOTE]Whether he's put down by forces inside or outside Russia is of secondary concern. Or perhaps he'll just croak on his own. But a rabid dog needs to be gotten rid of or, at the very least, isolated until the disease kills them.
With Putin, the fact that he has nukes makes getting rid of him even more important. That's because his nuclear saber-rattling won't stop with Ukraine. It'll continue with respect to Poland, the Baltics, and whatever else LilliPutin decides he wants.
But let's talk about nukes, shall we? I've seen some interesting articles detailing the kind of meticulous maintenance, and periodic replacement of critical components, needed to keep ICBMs mission-ready. With what we've seen of Russia's military, so far, it's an open question as to how much of Russia's nuclear deterrent is operational.
But let's assume it's good to go. The next question is whether Putin has a,death-wish and, even if he does, whether those around him share that death-wish. Will the soldiers and sailors and airmen blindly follow a launch order? Especially when, according to Russia's own military doctrine, nukes are a last resort to be used only if the homeland is under attack? It's hard to predict how people will react to an order to conmence the apocalypse. Hesitation, refusal, and even revolt are all possibilities.
One other thing to consider is the will of Russia's de facto master, China. Xi isn't as reckless as Putin and China will not want to deal with the fallout (literal and figurative) of Putin's foolishness. I'm guessing Xi has plenty of spies close to the Kremlin who would sound the alarm if rabid-dog Putin started foaming at the mouth too much. If that happened, I'd be surprised if China didn't have contingency plans ready to go. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries have all been cozying up to China. They all have spy networks and contacts in Russia, and none of them has a death-wish. On this particular issue, I would argue that Putin is truly isolated. None of his internal or external allies are willing to die for him. And, if they suspect he's losing his shit, they'll likely move against him.
Oh, and the 'provocation' BS is pure Russian propaganda. Ukraine never posed a threat to Russia. Ukraine simply wants to be left alone. And NATO, a defensive alliance of 30 countries, never posed a threat of offensive action against Russia. Consider that, at least prior to Russia's aggression, several NATO countries were on good terms with Russia and would NEVER have voted in favor of any NATO action against that country. Once again, Russia plays the faux victim as an all too transparent facade to excuse its own aggression.
But that's fine. Because, unlike 2014, Europe and its allies now see Putin for the existential threat he is. It's a damn shame that the dog you love has turned rabid. But that doesn't change the fact that he absolutely needs to be put down.
P.S. One correction to the above: Finland's application to join NATO has received unanimous approval, so NATO will be a 31 nation alliance. And, with that one move, the presence of NATO on Russia's borders has greatly expanded. Putin is truly the best salesman for NATO membership who has ever existed!
Did you translate it from the original Mandarin?
[QUOTE=Questner;2803407]While a new Russian Foreign Policy doctrine has been revealed.
[URL]https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/[/URL]
A new Chinese symbol depicting a snorting bug in the Kiev's bunker has taken shape:[/QUOTE]Russia no longer controls its own foreign policy. Chairman Xi is now calling the shots.
If anyone doubts this, just look at reports about Xi's recent Russia visit. The deliverables were decidedly in China's favor while Russia received mostly platitudes.
Putin has become Xi's lapdog, and everyone knows it, even in Russia. Can't wait for Vladivostok to revert to Chinese ownership and control. Won't that be exciting?
Russian academic speaks the truth. Is there an open window in his future?
"Russia is losing its future. Aleksandr Auzan, dean of Economics at Moscow State University on the loss of human capital in Russia".
[URL]https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1641162497951518722?cxt=HHwWhMC-0ZemysYtAAAA[/URL]
The video clip is 1 min 18 secs in length, and Auzan tries to soften his dire predictions by saying "if" the brain drain doesn't continue in the same way it's been going. Unfortunately for him, and Russia, there's no evidence Putin has any intention of changing course. Which means the brain drain is likely to continue along its death-spiral course, taking with it the hopes of Russia's future (for years, possibly generations) to come.
If you watch the clip it's clearly a warning, albeit cloaked in academic language, about the negative consequences of the current policy path. And it's clearly coming from someone in a position to have in-depth knowledge.
Unfortunately for the professor, pointing out Putin's negatives usually results in negative consequences showing up at your own door. Let's hope he has enough in the way of connections and influence to avoid any untimely accidents.
Reality is more than cherry-picked confirmation bias
[QUOTE=Locamotive;2803007]Unfortunately this is not a fable from the bible, this is reality.
Some of you are smoking crack or are delusional. The latest today Bakhmut is about surrounded and should fall soon. Ukraine claims a resurgent push in the spring mud, yeah that will be interesting. As I said before this is over. Maybe not today or tomorrow but this is over. Even one of my girls this past week in Philippine's,we were watching US news and she knows very little about this or has very much education. She is looking at map and I could see her thinking. Hmm she says that little country is trying to beat that giant one, that is stupid. You are correct dear but many do not see what you see in 5 minutes.[/QUOTE]Those who are pro-Russia (or anti-Ukraine) can find an endless supply of opinions, online or otherwise, that they can use to confirm their preferred narrative. And, to be completely fair, those who are pro-Ukraine (or anti-Russia) can do exactly the same.
But facts are stubborn things and they don't give a shit about either side's narrative. Reality is what actually happens on the battlefield, and that reality has not been kind to Russia, which occupies much less territory today than they did one year ago.
Let's take Bakhmut, as just one example. It's been "about to fall" for many months. And, even if it does fall, there are fortifications nearby that Ukraine has been preparing since 2014. And, even if it does fall, what if (as some have reported) it's cost Russia a hugely disproportionate amount of eqp and personnel losses? And, even if it does fall, will the Russians be able to hold it or will it be retaken by Ukraine, as happened with Lysychansk?
So what happens over the next few months? Will it be the case that Russia has shot their offensive wad and will only be able to wage defensive warfare? Will Ukraine be able to mount an effective offensive? I don't have the answers to those questions, and I'm not in the business of making predictions. But any honest observer of the current situation can see that Russia is currently at a near-standstill. And that's true no matter what happens in Bakhmut.
Not only are their ground forces moving at a snail's pace (where they're moving at all) but they no longer seem capable of mounting the kinds of massive missile attacks they did before. In fact, there's not one militarily significant area in which Russia's efforts haven't decreased in tempo and intensity.
And, if Russia is such a giant and powerful country, why can't they replace their lost equipment (tanks, etc.) with equivalent models? Instead, they're refurbishing WW-II era tanks and trying to buy drones and other weapons from countries like Iran.
Oh, and that "giant" country has a GDP less than the state of California. So, while it's massive when it comes to geographic size, it's below average when it comes to economic heft. Meanwhile, all of the US and all of Europe are firm in their support of Ukraine. And, in Asia and the Pacific, both Japan and Australia are supporting Ukraine. Russia was hoping for China's help but, at least so far, that's been more talk than anything else.
So, go right ahead and smoke your crack while patting yourself on the back about the "accuracy" of your crystal ball. I prefer to observe the facts on the ground and let those inform my assessments. And, as I noted above, reality has not been kind to Russia. But go ahead and buy your girl another lumpia. That should make everything better.
Agree + three quick additional points
[QUOTE=Chicago85;2803667]What you fail to note is that 'that little country' is backed by the USA, E.U. , and NATO. At least for now. The only way that Russia wins is if Trump, or maybe DeSantis wins in the next election and convinces congress to stop funding.
Ukraine has fought Russia to a stalemate without any tanks, very few planes, and USA Tech from the early 90's. Once the 150+ promised advanced tanks arrive, a few pilots get trained on F-16's, and the US sends some things from more recent than 30 YEARS AGO! . Stuff will move.
Russia's supposed trump card is their nuclear stockpile. Even if they were to deploy one of those, and it miraculously worked, they'd be 10x worse off and it would lead to the ware being ended by 'the adults in the room.' Putin knows that it would be his downfall as the USA Would respond with overwhelming firepower and likely boots on the ground. Russia would be out of the occupied territories in a week, and should the US want to, we'd be in Red Square within a month. Putin would be overthrown and likely killed.
You can call this hubris, and there is a good dose of that, but more so my position is based upon the absolute shit show of a performance that has been Russia so far.[/QUOTE]1. No matter who wins the 2024 election, Biden doesn't leave office until Jan 20th, 2025. That's nearly 2 years from now, and Biden can pre-fund and front-load support for Ukraine in ways that will be resistant to any attempts by the next administration to reverse or cancel.
2. If either Trump or DeSantis take office, they'll immediately be confronted with the difference between governing and criticizing the policies of others. Europe is remarkably united in their support of Ukraine. And other nations like Canada, Australia, and Japan are firmly on board. A Republican administration might want to make changes but I doubt they would pull the plug or be willing to piss off so many important allies. They might try to pressure Ukraine to negotiate but Putin's war criminal status and Russia's continued atrocities make that a tough sell. And most of Europe will also take Ukraine's side on that issue.
3. If the US does throttle back on support, it wouldn't surprise me to see other countries throttle up. Poland, for example, has the ability to transfer more equipment if they choose to do so. Most NATO countries have been allowing the US to take the lead. But, if that leadership wanes, I fully expect others to step up. Russian aggression is an existential threat for the Baltics, Nordics, Poland, and others. They will adapt to any changing circumstances because supporting Ukraine is the best way to ensure their own security.
