Depends on your definition of provoke, doesn't it?
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2804562]Good post. JM's whole concept that we did not provoke Russia is crazy. There are so many videos that show otherwise but the two best ones I have seen are here:
[URL]https://www.cc.com/video/y1wxc3/the-colbert-report-crisis-in-ukraine[/URL]
[URL]https://rumble.com/v1m0df8-the-colbert-report-crisis-in-ukraine-gideon-rose-02242014.html[/URL]
The guest on the Colbert report, back when Steven Colbert was funny, even said we wanted to prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine. So fear of provoking a Russian invasion was present back in 2014 and the soothing words to keep back an invasion apparently were no longer spoken. Biden said to Putin he would not rule out Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia invaded shortly after that.
Matt Taibbi, one of the few journalists I trust, has said that there are now two parties in Washington. They are not Republican and Democrat but pro-war and anti-war. Trump and Bernie Sanders are anti-war and HRC and Biden are in the pro-war party. If you are in the antiwar party, you can expect what Trump got today and what Bernie Sanders got in the primaries.
The setup is the same. Build up a guy or guys to be the epitome of evil. And then give the military industrial complex trillions to knock him out of power and watch as things get even worse in said country. We have seen this movie before with Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, and the Taliban. And anyone who objects to that money being spent on this nonsense abroad is told, "What is a matter with you, you love Hussein, Gaddafi, the Taliban, or Putin?
And you are right. The Ukrainian people will suffer the same fate as those in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan while the military industrial complex lines its pockets. If you oppose them, well, you end up dead like JFK or charged like Trump. Biden was building up for war on literally the first day he was in office.[/QUOTE]If you define provoking Russia as "doing stuff that Putin doesn't like," then there's a whole shitload of "provocation" out there. If you define it that way then there's literally no limit to the things Russia can claim as justification for aggression. Or, maybe it's more correct to say that such justifications are only limited by Russian imagination and propaganda.
Russians have already conjured up enough "provocation" to justify their military aggressions against Georgia and Moldova. And anyone paying attention will have noticed they have ready-made "provocations" against Poland and the Baltics that can be taken off the shelf and used when needed.
Any clown can say that they "feel threatened," but the proof of whether a true threat exists depends on an assessment of objective facts.
Objective Fact #1: Ukraine has never posed a military threat to Russia. Had Ukraine ever attempted military action against Russia they would have received zero support from the West. They also would have been trounced by Russia since, as the current war demonstrates, it's much harder to attack than it is to defend.
Objective Fact #2: NATO posed zero offensive threat to Russia. Not only is NATO defensive in nature and by charter, but it would take unanimous consent of all 30 (now 31) members before an offensive action (against anyone) would be approved. Before the Feb 24th invasion, because several NATO members were friendly to Russia (Hungary, Germany, France, etc.), not only would Russia have had advance notice of any significant developments but any single one of those (formerly) friendly nations would have had veto power they could exercise.
Objective Fact #3: The myth of so-called promises re NATO expansion has been debunked by no less than Mikhail Gorbachev, himself. He stated in an interview that discussions on that topic centered on German reunification and the territory of former East Germany. And, not only was there no formal agreement on that subject, during Yeltsin's tenure Russia was even contemplating joining NATO. So the about-face and demonization of NATO is a feature of Putinism and his need to find excuses for his own aggression abroad and repression at home.
Oh yeah, and your entire post ignores the agency of Little Vlad, himself. Nobody forced him to order the invasion. Prior to Feb 24th he had all kinds of diplomatic and geopolitical cards he could have played, all from a position of strength. Now he's flushed every one of those options down the toilet and is no longer the master of his own (and Russia's) fate.
And you've also pointedly denied agency to the Ukrainian people, who simply want to keep their land, prevent their women from being raped and their children from being kidnapped, and to stay alive.
But sure, it's all the USA's fault, isn't it?
P.S. As to the future, unlike some I don't pretend to have a crystal ball. But I'd simply note how many "expert" predictions have already been proven wrong. And how many surprising turns of events (rapid NATO accession for Finland, EU decoupling from Russian energy supplies, etc.), have come to pass. So, if I had to place a bet, it'd be on a Ukrainian future as part of the EU (for sure) and NATO (likely). And I'd lay long odds on Russia becoming a vassal state of China, just a bit higher than North Korea in the pecking order.
The blame for the horrible disaster lies squarely on LilliPutin, no one else.
[QUOTE=Questner;2804608]Kudos to you. My post was addressed to ISG's prolific arm chair generals. As for the President, this horrible disaster reflects visibly upon him also. What choice in realpolitik has he got? No one ever wanted even a scratch on a hand.[/QUOTE]He played the invasion card, no one forced him. And, for those who simply observe events as they unfold on the battlefield, the term "armchair general" is incorrect. It certainly applies to some ISG members, but not all.
Better Quote of the Day: Russian Imperialists, Go Fuck Yourselves!
[QUOTE=Questner;2804612]Quote of the day, 'To paraphrase former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates, any American president or politician who is willing to risk a high-end conventional land war with Russia should have his head examined, or at a minimum, deserves serious psychiatric care. The same must be said of anyone in Washington who wants to engage in nuclear brinksmanship with Moscow. '.[/QUOTE]With all due respect to SecDef Gates, and others, that quote was appropriate for the Cold War era in which the USSR had its de facto empire and wasn't actively trying to expand. This current era features a megalomaniac in the Kremlin who sees himself as a modern day Peter the Great, with a mandate and destiny to reclaim "historic" Russian lands.
Putin is essentially saying "I want to possess Ukraine. Let me have it or I will rattle my nuclear (WW-III, OMG!) saber". The problem with giving in to such blackmail is that the blackmailer has no incentive to stop. In fact, showing weakness actually incentivizes the blackmailer to keep going. So the next demand could be Poland, or Latvia, or another (fill in the blank) country.
No one in the West is playing the nuclear brinkmanship game. It's all coming from Little Vlad. Which means only he can unilaterally stop it. The West has a choice between displaying weakness or strength. From Putin's past behavior, we know he despises weakness and respects only strength. Not really a difficult call to make, IMO.
Also, the elephant in the room is Russia's newly acquired master, China. From the CCP's various statements, it's rather clear that any nuclear transgression would incur China's wrath. Russia would, at a minimum, likely forfeit China's support. The last thing China wants is nuclear instability and proliferation, as Japan and Korea would almost certainly move to develop their own nukes.
To use your own imagery, allowing Putin to dictate the terms of the nuclear debate would be like letting the inmates run the asylum. Putin could certainly benefit from some ("Here, Vlad, bite down on this") electro-shock therapy.
Thoughts from a real General (ret) about the coming Ukrainian offensive
[URL]https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-coming-ukrainian-offensives[/URL]
No armchair in sight. It's most definitely his own opinion, nothing more, but he has expertise and experience that regular schmucks (myself included) will never have. He's pro-Ukraine, but that doesn't invalidate the facts he presents and observations he makes. People are free to disagree or debate the issues, but they should do so on the basis of countervailing facts and competing arguments.
Get every last bit of Russian cancer completely the fuck out of Ukraine!
[QUOTE=Questner;2804987]A pathway to democracy: Banned: languages, opposition parties, opposition mass media, exit out of the country, church. All checked.[/QUOTE]Then, and only then, will all the necessary boxes be checked. Russia is so thoroughly perverse that even the Russian Orthodox Church is infested with diseased FSB elements. Cutting out the cancer is the only solution. Plenty of Eastern Orthodox and Ukrainian Orthodox (non-Moscow Patriarchate) churches to serve the needs of the people.
Russian soldiers the fuck out of Ukraine. Russian cancerous influences the fuck out of Ukraine. THEN some semblance of normalcy can start to return.
P.S. What a clown-car farce it is to criticize Ukraine for things Russia has been doing for decades, and on a much larger scale. Why don't you ask the young Russian girl who is being put into foster care, and her father arrested, because she drew an anti-war picture in school? Oh, yeah! Russia's a real model of openness and tolerance, right?
Too bad for LilliPutin (and you) that Ukraine will have the last laugh!
[QUOTE=Questner;2805565]Bandera screaming in hell would have preferred his arse burned on a pan to seeing jester-acting-a-jew selling Ukraine to his Polish master (adapted from titles below):[/QUOTE]Russia has no future because Little Vlad has flushed it down the shitter. Now he needs to ask permission from Master Xi before he can wipe his own ass.
Everything of value in Russia will eventually be taken over by China. But the Chinese aren't totally heartless. The stray dog population will be left alone and free North Korean cookbooks will be made available. Mutt shashlik, anyone?
Murder, torture, kidnap, and repression, are more than mere cultural comparisons
[QUOTE=Golfinho;2805571]You'd think people who travel, that is sometimes find themselves in other places, would have the simple sense to avoid cultural comparisons from their homeland perspective. But then again, if their only comparative mentality is the price of hookers, you could hardly blame them.
P.S. Would you let a drag queen babysit your children? Or your grandchildren?[/QUOTE]There is already an abundance of evidence, with more being discovered every day, that Putin's Orcs are responsible for:
1. The murder of unarmed civilians. In Bucha, Irpin, and more, bodies are being uncovered with signs of torture and execution (buried with hands tied), etc. These incidents are being documented by international and third-country organizations, not simply Ukrainians. At the appropriate time I fully expect war crimes charges to be brought.
2. In the same way as #1, torture chambers have been discovered in areas formerly occupied by the Orc hordes, such as Kherson, etc. These are also being documented by a variety of organizations (not just Ukrainian). Again, at the appropriate time, I fully expect war crimes charges will be brought.
3. The removal of children from Ukraine to Russia, and placing them for 'adoption' by Russians, has already been adjudged worthy of war crime charges. IMO, this was the first charge to be brought because it's so blatantly obvious, even in the supposed 'fog' of war.
4. Putting a father in jail because of a drawing his young daughter made in school, and removing that girl from the custody of her father, is only a 'cultural comparison' if you're using China, North Korea, and Iran as your models. Once you step an inch outside that extreme authoritarian world view, such actions are universally viewed as repression.
Finally, in response to your idiotic question, I have an impeccably logical answer:
A) I would not let a draq queen babysit my children or grandchildren.
B) I would not let Golfinho babysit my children or grandchildren.
Therefore, by the immutable mathematical proposition that states, if X1 = Z and X2 = Z, then X1 = X2, the inevitable conclusion is that Golfinho = drag queen.
Class dismissed. Any questions?
P.S. This unassailable mathematical proof explains SO much about the mentality behind your posts. I suggest that, from this point forward, other forum members refer to you as DragQuinho. It's got quite a nice ring to it, don't you think?
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Is it going well for you?
[QUOTE=Questner;2805565]Bandera screaming in hell would have preferred his arse burned on a pan to seeing jester-acting-a-jew selling Ukraine to his Polish master (adapted from titles below):[/QUOTE]I see that Muscovy's rouble is tumbling even though trading is banned and the currency doesn't float any more. Or do you keep your liquidity in the currency of your new masters? ROFL.
