American Politics

[QUOTE=Tiny12;3074227]Hi Elvis, Several comments. Typically the hottest IPO's are allocated mostly to institutions, and the majority flip the shares early on. That's largely why the fund managers don't give a shit about the fundamentals of the business. They're going to take their allotment of [URL]Broadcast.com[/URL] and sell it maybe on the first day. The institutions who get the IPO shares are typically the best customers of the investment banks (Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, et cetera) so that's why they get first shot. The investment banks purposely try to underprice the shares to reward their best clients (hedge funds and mutual funds and the like). The company that's going public and the retail investors who pay more the first day for the same shares are the ones who get screwed.[/QUOTE]Another solid example of how the stock market is rigged. But the time IPO is available to the public all the initial investors are paid and the public (if they buy) get the crumbs that are left over and hope.

AH, You you propose a bet with me but instead talk [B]male bovine excrement [/B] with [I]Elvis2008[/I] about me. [B]Very ungentlemanly if you ask me[/B].

[QUOTE=AxelHeyst;3074193]But I enjoy reading your posts, Elvis, which I find informative and entertaining.[/QUOTE]I completely disagree. Every post where [I]Elvis2008[/I] has responded to me or has something to say about me contains a insult that has nothing to do with the subject at hand. Example:

From Elvis2008.

[QUOTE]Did you really have to quote SC? Now, I have to sign out and read the BS he wrote. It is like 10% information and 90% his bragging about his race and dick size. And after reading it, 10% was generous.[/QUOTE]Furthermore he has called me a Socialist. I don't care what people call me. I went to go get pasta at my favorite late night spot and got called a racial epitaph from a white farang (country of origin unknown). He wanted to fight me just because I am black and in a country he thinks is a personal playground for only individuals of his race. Very similar to [I]Elvis2008.[/I].

[B]POTUS is dabbling in Socialism right now[/B] With state ownership of corporate interests. WTF?

[QUOTE=AxelHeyst;3074193]2nd, on the important subject of hyper-inflation and food prices as measured by the CPI-UU Food component, I consider the possibility that it will be running up to 30% year over year by the end of December 2026 to be extremely, extremely unlikely, but I didn't want to hit [b]SubCmdr[/b] over the head with my "opinion". That's why I offered him a friendly Gentleman's wager and if [b]I am wrong and I lose the wager, I will admit it over a few very strong drinks[/b], KKK, and party on. But even more importantly, I will want to know how and why the US Economy went hyper and why I missed seeing the danger as late as July 2026.[/QUOTE]At least you will be willing to admit that you are wrong. Elvis does not. I have documented his errors in several threads all over ISG and he has yet to admit to them.

[B]The reason why you are going to miss the rise in inflation is because you are rich![/B]

Just like your boy Elvis2008 who flys to Latin America to be a [B]International Trick[/B] complaining about others who have paid into a system in the Dis United States of America and are not receiving benefits from it. You see the rich don't concern themselves with the problems of a [B]poor black man[/B] such as myself. Figure if I am going to be accused to something I'll give my accuser some thing to actually work with. The rich own assets which go up during inflationary times. They have the income to absorb food inflation without a problem. A [B]poor black man[/B] such as myself (and others black and non black) cannot do this without sacrifice.

[QUOTE=AxelHeyst;3074193]3rd, yeah with Trump's guy at the head of the FED I see only one possible rate increase between now and the end of the year based on current data. But if the Fed does decide to raise interest rates, it most likely will not happen until after the election unless there is hard new evidence of significant new inflation growth.[/QUOTE]We will see. This will be on the record. January. I see the Dis United States of America returning to this situation:

[QUOTE]Runaway inflation in the United States, known as the Great Inflation, persisted from the mid-1960s until the early 1980s, peaking at 14% by the end of the decade.

This period was characterized by stagflation, where high unemployment coexisted with rising prices, defying traditional economic models like the Phillips Curve.

Key drivers included OPEC oil embargoes (1973 and 1979) that caused supply shocks, expansionary monetary policy, and policy errors such as the failure of Nixons wage and price controls.*

*The inflationary spiral was only broken when Paul Volcker became Federal Reserve Chair in 1979 and aggressively raised interest rates to 20%, triggering a severe recession but ultimately restoring price stability.[/QUOTE]Don't really give a fuck about any of this stuff. Above my pay grade. I have positioned myself for the tidal wave that is going to hit most citizens of the Dis United States of America and drown them while the rich sit on their yachts and bet on who is going under first. [B]I've got my life raft on[/B].

Elvis2008 needs to stop lying about me and pulling statements out of his (insert color of your choice) just because he needs a lot of bleach to do his laundry (Think Racial Issues and the outfits they wear. Did anyone see him marching?

[B]ROTFLMAO![/B]

I trade based on [B]Elliot Wave Analysis[/B] which looks at price structure and levels. I no longer trade on the basis of fundamental analysis. From a fundamental analysis standpoint the indexes look over valued do me. From a EW analysis basis a correction of 20 to 40% is in the cards. I've already sold off of the majority of my stock portfolio. The remaining stocks I hold are in highly focused in the area I believe will endure through the AI decimation of companies.

Here is a link to [B]MSTR[/B] EW Analysis:

[URL]https://youtu.be/qlZPj86_DXE?si=bXNXS4Vw__c3V6Kr[/URL]

How does this relate to American Politics? The Stock Market of the Dis United States of America is rigged. POTUS is moving the country towards Socialism (state ownership of assests).

And.

The Dis United States of America is a [U]Plutocracy.[/U]. Only those who own hard assets will benefit when the reset occurs. It will not be televised.

[QUOTE=AxelHeyst;3074193]The most interesting fact of the last week was seeing oil prices decline[/QUOTE]So when WTI price bounces back into the 80's who will catch the blame for that? Democrats?

Can you or your boy [I]Elvis2008[/I] give me a credible reason why Trump should get credit for the movement of the price of oil?

[B]I'm listening![/B]

[QUOTE=Tiny12;3074225]Hi Axel, Since Subcmdr passed on #3, I'll take that action if you're so inclined. The Republicans may indeed hold the Senate, but they're going to get clobbered in the House. I feel strongly about that, and wouldn't feel right taking advantage of you. So, I'the propose this bet. As such time as I make it to Sao Paulo and you happen to be there, if you win (Republicans win both House and Senate) I'll buy you time with the hottest garota de programa at Scandallo, not to exceed 2000 reais. If you win, you just buy the round of drinks. Or we can do something mutually agreeable at another location.[/QUOTE]Hey Tiny, that is quite a generous proposition considering that approximately 300 br of Scandallo's 500 br entry fee is consumable after 7 pm and 100% consumable before 7 pm, so in effect you are offering me 10 to 1 odds. Are you sure you want to place this bet? I am not interested in taking your money, so I will tell you right now that if we make this wager, I will not seek out a 2,000 br girl because I never do. The sweet spot for me at Scandallo is between 800 br and 1000 br for very attractive girls, not the so-called super stars and the most I have ever given a Scan girl was 1200 br for ST. To put it in context, I give my #1 Scandallo girl 900 br for our particular version of "modified ST" which (we don't watch the clock) effectively means 5 to 7 hours and 2 or 3 shags and we do not do sleepovers by mutual consent. KKK /555.

In any case, you are on if you want to make the wager. I just returned from SP about 10 days ago and I have already booked my next SP trip in October. It would be outstanding to meet you in SP then if possible. But I am also seriously thinking about doing the "BIG TRIP": MIA to BKK (and Pattaya) / BKK to CGK / CGK to PNH to BKK / BKK to GRU / and finally GRU to MIA. And my plan is to arrive in BKK immediately after Songkran and get to SP before May 22 in order to celebrate Valeria's 30th birthday. So, either way we should be able to hook up, Buddha willing of course.

A. H.

[QUOTE=SubCmdr;3074287]So when WTI price bounces back into the 80's who will catch the blame for that? Democrats?

Can you or your boy [I]Elvis2008[/I] give me a credible reason why Trump should get credit for the movement of the price of oil?

[B]I'm listening![/B][/QUOTE]One of the main reasons is when Trump won the presidency he encouraged oil drilling and USA now is producing 13,500,000 barrels per day. Also reduced regulations for the oil companies now make it possible to make good money at $72 a barrel. Chevron said profits are good enough at $72 a barrel to drill, do exploration and to make capital improvements worldwide. I expect a glut of oil in next year and see prices in the $60-$65 range.

[QUOTE=SubCmdr;3074272]Elvis2008 needs to stop lying about me and pulling statements out of his (insert color of your choice) just because he needs a lot of bleach to do his laundry (Think Racial Issues and the outfits they wear. Did anyone see him marching?

[B]ROTFLMAO![/B]

I trade based on [B]Elliot Wave Analysis[/B] which looks at price structure and levels. I no longer trade on the basis of fundamental analysis. From a fundamental analysis standpoint the indexes look over valued do me. From a EW analysis basis a correction of 20 to 40% is in the cards. I've already sold off of the majority of my stock portfolio. The remaining stocks I hold are in highly focused in the area I believe will endure through the AI decimation of companies..[/QUOTE]The USA markets are very strong right now. Gains in the last 18 months have been amazing and will continue once Trump economic programs kick off. There are billions of dollars of new factories being built in steel, cars and technology with the increased investment in America. The only thing that may slow the markets is if the democrats win the mid terms. Hopefully not but if they do it will probably only be the house and not the senate. As dumb as the democrats are right now I feel good about republicans keeping the house and senate. The worst thing a person could have done was get out of the market in the last 2 years. It has been a huge win for the market and Americans with 401 retirement in last 18 months.

[QUOTE=EihTooms;3074229]Yeah, don't let one get started by alerting authorities about the earliest cases so tried and proven mitigating isolation and quarantine measures can be taken to prevent it from becoming a Pandemic.

It is astonishing how incapable of understanding or unwilling to understand the simplest points you MAGA Cultists are.[/QUOTE]To the contrary, it is amazing how dumb you Dems continue to be. You still are yapping about quarantines? I am sorry. Where did quarantines actually fucking work with Covid?

And China had no incentive to quarantine on their own? Yeah, the Chinese were so stupid that it would take one American epidemiologist to tell them to quarantine. This is not just TDS. It is so racist it is not even funny. One thing I get with you Tooms is the dumber you get, the more cocky you get.

The reason Fauci was pardoned is that he went around an Obama executive branch order and started doing gain of function research on his own. He paid for the creation of the Covid virus. He made certain it was engineered to be so contagious that quarantines would not work. And once the virus was mistakenly leaked from a lab, he did all in his power to say the virus came from nature. And he repeatedly lied under oath about funding with regards to his virus and his taxpayer funded coverup. Hell, he even had so much influence that we now know that the CIA and FBI initially backed off saying Covid was a lab leak.

If Fauci ever went to trial and a jury objectively looked at the facts, he would be in prison for life if not executed. But you dumb Dems wanted to continue the fantasy of "Trump's pandemic" and so Biden pardoned this criminal. Meanwhile, you dumb Dems searched Melania's sock drawer, engaged in POS crock civil cases against Trump, and then came up with this crazy criminal offense that was literally invented.

So Fauci pays for creation of a virus that makes billions sick and kills millions, but you are okay with that. Trump paid off a porn star not to talk, which is legal BTW, and you dumb Dems cooked that up to be a crime because how he filed the paperwork was wrong. Unfuckingbelievable.

And you think you Dems lost in 2024 because of Muslims? You are mentally ill.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;3074227]Hi Elvis, Several comments. Typically the hottest IPO's are allocated mostly to institutions, and the majority flip the shares early on. That's largely why the fund managers don't give a shit about the fundamentals of the business. They're going to take their allotment of [URL]Broadcast.com[/URL] and sell it maybe on the first day. The institutions who get the IPO shares are typically the best customers of the investment banks (Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, et cetera) so that's why they get first shot. The investment banks purposely try to underprice the shares to reward their best clients (hedge funds and mutual funds and the like). The company that's going public and the retail investors who pay more the first day for the same shares are the ones who get screwed.

I would not buy shares in a variable interest entity. As I understand it, the legal status of VIE's is uncertain or worse in the PRC. The Chinese government could at any point make the shares of VIE investors worthless.

Insiders of companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are the least likely to engage in fraud. The reason is they can go to jail or worse..[/QUOTE]That is way better than I thought. At the end of the day, you can have these laws in place but there are so many ways to get around them. What I learned with the Wall Street type is they defer trust to management but if you screw the street, they rarely forget. IOW, management's reputation is more important than the laws. I was amazed at how many ding-aling con men there are as CEOs but when I actually met someone who knew what they were doing and what they talked about, their companies almost always did well. Anyway, I will do a deep dive on these Chinese car companies although I always tend to be way early on things, but you have persuaded me to take them off the no go list.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;3074227]About the first video, I haven't looked at BYD but did take a quick look at Geely and Chery. While the speaker obviously has a lot of experience in China, I don't think he understand what's going on with payables. The companies at the top of the food chain, like the car manufacturers, are very slow paying suppliers, and treat the payables as free loans. I bet if you look at the accounts receivable turns of the auto parts companies, they conversely would look off the charts. I didn't see Geely or Chery as having problematic balance sheets. Chery in fact has 108 billion renminbi cash, higher than its 91 billion accounts payable. I'm not buying his claim of auto companies generating tons of fictitious revenues by delivering cars to dealers that they can't sell. If that were happening you should see off the charts accounts receivable and low operating cash flow, which isn't the case with Geely or Chery.[/QUOTE]Buffett got out of BYD after owning a big and profitable stake. There was something he didn't like, but I am not interested in BYD. They got a bigger name but I do not think they are all that great.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;3074227]Geely is selling for 8. 2 X 2026 earnings, has an ROE of 19%, and dividend yield of 2. 7%. The dividend yield may seem skimpy, but given its growing revenues and profits at 20%+ per year, that's reasonable. They're using most of their income (actually free cash flow) to invest in growth instead of paying it out as dividends.

Chery's selling for 6. 4 X 2026 earnings, has an ROE of 49% and dividend yield of 3. 7%. Likewise it's growing.

Compare to Tesla at 231 X earnings, 5% ROE, no dividend, and flat or negative growth since 2023. Admittedly the market is giving them more credit for pie in the sky like self driving cars and robots than EV's. Still, which of these three shares look more like pieces of paper (if you had share certificates) than interests in a business?[/QUOTE]Tesla is probably the least interesting of Musk's businesses IMO. Just to show you how early I am, I heard of people bragging about Teslas like in 2015,2016, and they were crap back then BTW with all kind of quality issues. From a valuation standpoint, Chery and Geely look scrumptious. I get why Geely is ahead of Chery. Chery is like a Chevy and I liken Geely more to like a Lincoln.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;3074227]The big risk is dog eat dog competition in Chinese cars, which has already surfaced and which may destroy margins and returns. Please note this runs counter to your view about other industries, that the Chinese may cut prices to dirt cheap, put the competition out of business, and then raise prices sky high. I don't think this will ever happen in autos. But in say rare earth materials and magnets, yeah, that's very logical.[/QUOTE]Yeah, well, I am not thinking of profits in China. If the car companies break even there, that would be fine with me. Chile is one of the few nations in the worlds that does not have tariffs on cars and they give you a reliable indicator of how cheap Chinese cars in theory could be. In Mexico, they are a little cheaper versus a lot cheaper in Chile due to the Mexican tariff structure.

Right now, the American car consumer does not know how badly they are being ripped off. If you see what you can get in China for 50 grand versus what you can get in the USA, it would make the consumer mad. As of now, the car tariffs are holding but once that dam breaks, and I think it is inevitable that it will, you will start to see Chinese car companies making profits like crazy in the American market. That is the growth I would be investing in. It is not even so much the new car sales, but the service departments are where dealers make their huge $.

The car snobs at the auto magazines are still making fun of Chinese cars, but just five or ten years ago, Chinese cars were junk. Despite the claims of the snobs, I was seeing real world people saying they were fine with Chinese quality. And today from what I have seen, there are features you did not get in legacy auto makers. So yeah, you have cheap stocks with the potential to explode. The problem is my guess is these explosion is five to ten years away.

[QUOTE=AxelHeyst;3074193]3rd, yeah with Trump's guy at the head of the FED I see only one possible rate increase between now and the end of the year based on current data. But if the Fed does decide to raise interest rates, it most likely will not happen until after the election unless there is hard new evidence of significant new inflation growth. The most interesting fact of the last week was seeing oil prices decline and the stock market rally after the "truce" ended and the bombing of Iran resumed indicating the IRGC may be running out of cards to play and its ability to influence oil prices is waning. And this is very good news even for Trump haters even though they will never admit it.[/QUOTE]That is a good point. There is time to raise rates after the midterms. The Fed could do that then though I see more lower inflation then. It is amazing to see the energy market yawning at the Strait of Hormuz being closed. For sixty years, this was the nightmare energy scenario. Probably the biggest mistake Iran made was attacking its neighbors. They and China and other nations are making adjustments such that their wealth is not dependent on the unstable and crazy Iranian leadership. What has amazed me is how quickly this is being done.

[QUOTE=EihTooms;3074231]No, Elvis, the next Dem President won't be able to "hire" these people to shove the diarrhea back up into the asses of Americans and make it all better.

Trump's Pandemic Part 2? It isn't a virulent rapid-spreading airborne virus so he probably isn't all that excited about it. But I can see how spreading parasites would be the right fit for Know Nothing, Do Nothing Deadbeat Repubs.

[B]Trumps CDC Stopped Monitoring Explosive Diarrhea Parasite Before Outbreak.
July 10, 2026[/B]

[URL]https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-cdc-food-net-monitoring-parasite-cyclospora-12180951[/URL]

Most Trump supporters and anyone else who could have but did not vote for Kamala Harris in 2024 probably won't notice a difference between "explosive diarrhea" and what happens at a Trump rally or in their learned discussions about the economy, stock-trading, fossil fuel vs renewable energy, etc.

Investing in diaper manufacturing and sales companies might be a good idea right about now.[/QUOTE]Alzheimer's?

[QUOTE=SubCmdr;3074287]So when WTI price bounces back into the 80's who will catch the blame for that? Democrats?

Can you or your boy [I]Elvis2008[/I] give me a credible reason why Trump should get credit for the movement of the price of oil?

[B]I'm listening![/B][/QUOTE]I think you are missing the big global picture. It is not about oil per say. It is about the existential threat the Iranians posed to the region, to Europe and to the USA. So, when a bunch of religious fanatics take over a country, imprison and torture their citizens, start terrorizing their neighbors and then they begin building nuclear centrifuges, it becomes obvious that these fanatics don't care about nuclear retaliation as long as they get to kill large numbers of their enemies. Thus, under these unique set of circumstances the defensive possession of nuclear weapons no longer serves as a deterrent. Trump ended the fanatical Mulla's nuclear weapons program just in the nick of time and he killed their top leaders responsible for building these nuclear weapons facilities and for financing most of the terrorism and murder in the region for the last 47 years. Enough is enough.

Yes, oil jumped higher after the Mullas were taken out in February and the IRCG began to block oil tankers from shipping in the straits. I mentioned the price of crude in my last post because it acts as a barometer for what is going on in this war and who is wining. Will crude go back up into the 80's in the short run? I don't know. Maybe. But it ain't going up to $150 a barrel and staying there and it ain't going to do any permanent damage the US Economy. I will bet on that because 1. It looks like the Iranians are finally about to lose their only advantage which was causing trouble in the Straits of Hormuz and that is not me talking, that is the consensus of the marketplace talking. 2. The oil producing countries in the region will in time develop alternate crude oil distribution methods (pipelines) that will bypass the straits entirely and leave the Iranians to fester in their own pre-industrial crap. In the meantime, America will continue to sell our oil to most of Iran's former customers as long as they remain friendly.

It is too early for victory parades, but a favorable outcome to this war is insight and I give Trump a hell of a lot credit for what he has done so far.

[QUOTE=SubCmdr;3074084] What is the index that will be used to judge the price of food increase in the Dis United States of America from July 2026 to December 2026?

This one (#2) is easy as the Fed moves will be on record.

I don't give a fuck about politics. I don't believe politics or politicians are an effective way to change the system.

[B]Number three is no bet:[/B] Reason why is covered above.

Here are my terms: Loser buys round the round for each bet we agree upon. Winner determines location where the bet is paid. Should be pretty easy to know where I am going to pick. Also, note I will not travel in order to make payment if I lose.[/QUOTE]OK, let's keep it simple. Wager #1 & #2 are on #3 is out. I am not fussy about which index we use. The CPI-you seasonally adjusted month to month or the annual year over year unadjusted, either one is fine with me. But if you don't like CPI then suggest another well-known price index. I do not think different price indices will affect the end results of our wager very much, but we should decide on an index now anyway.

And if you don't want to include girly drinks as part of the wager, no problem. I will take care of whomever I am with and you can do the same on your end. BTW I don't have any particular place in mind because I have been away so long I am reluctant to name one. But I will probably come up with one after I am in town for a few days.

So, the 1st thing I plan to do when I return is to revisit all my favorite haunts from back when and then I will start to update my base to include any new places that I like. It's going to fun to be back. I am looking forward to it like a virgin. 555!

[QUOTE=Canada;3074338]The worst thing a person could have done was get out of the market in the last 2 years.[/QUOTE]Are you kidding me?

[QUOTE]Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway is holding a record $397 billion in cash and short-term Treasury bills as of the end of Q1 2026.** This figure represents approximately one-third of the companys total market value and is the largest cash reserve in its history.

The primary drivers for this unprecedented cash hoard include:

High Market Valuations: Key metrics like the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio are significantly above historical norms, leading Buffett to view current stock prices as overvalued.
Lack of Attractive Opportunities: Buffett has stated that he cannot find large-scale investments that meet his strict criteria for margin of safety and circle of competence.
Strategic Selling: Berkshire has actively reduced its equity portfolio, notably cutting stakes in major holdings like Apple and Bank of America over recent quarters.
Insurance & Dry Powder: The cash serves as essential liquidity ("oxygen") to meet obligations and provides the capacity to make large acquisitions during future market downturns.
While some interpret the cash pile as a bearish signal, Buffett emphasizes that it reflects patience and discipline rather than a prediction of a crash, noting that he prefers to wait for "fat pitches" rather than compromise on valuation.[/QUOTE]Given a choice, I would rather trade on the basis of Elliot Wave than the WAGS (Wild Ass Guesses) based the advice given from those who don't really understand markets, those who have political biases, and those that think that politics control markets.

[B]ROTFLMAO![/B]

[QUOTE=AxelHeyst;3074372] Will crude go back up into the 80's in the short run? I don't know. Maybe. But it ain't going up to $150 a barrel and staying there and it ain't going to do any permanent damage the US Economy. [b]I will bet on that because[/b] 1. It looks like the Iranians are finally about to lose their only advantage which was causing trouble in the Straits of Hormuz and that is not me talking, that is the consensus of the marketplace talking. 2. The oil producing countries in the region will in time develop alternate crude oil distribution methods (pipelines) that will bypass the straits entirely and leave the Iranians to fester in their own pre-industrial crap. In the meantime, America will continue to sell our oil to most of Iran's former customers as long as they remain friendly.

It is too early for victory parades, but a favorable outcome to this war is insight and I give Trump a hell of a lot credit for what he has done so far.[/QUOTE]EW anaylsis shows a possible bounce into the 80 in the short term. Then a drop into the 60 - 65 range.

I agree Oil (In general) is not going to 150. But there is going to be a oil shock that no one sees coming. Inflation is already out of control being twice as high as target. I wasn't allowed to be off by 100% in my job when I was working. If I was people died, I wouldn't have a job anymore and would be probably writing this from jail right now.