American Politics

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2532493]Clearly we have different political positions, on which I don't choose to engage; however, on this one issue, petroleum pricing, I will ask how well your previous predictions have stood up?

1) I don't think the future markets agree with you. The price of Brent is $64/ bbl today; however, futures contracts are heavily against you for the next year.[/QUOTE]And I think they should be even lower than that.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2532493]The production cost of Alberta tar sand oil is ~$80/ bbl, US shale oil varies between $40 and $80. Saudi is <$3/ bbl. There's no way that pipeline will ever get used unless we go back to +$80 oil.[/QUOTE]JC, you are too high on your numbers. Canadians started tar production back when oil was at $20 a barrel in 2000. As for USA Production, it varies a lot based on salaries but this was during a boom phase: [URL]https://www.forbes.com/sites/clairepoole/2018/07/29/5-permian-basin-oil-producers-with-the-lowest-break-even-price/?sh=7a0424895325[/URL].

"It found that the break-even oil prices for wells with lateral lengths of 4,500 to 10,500 feet ranged from $21 to $48 per barrel."

And I have been told it is even lower than that. The real issue with Permian oil was pipeline capacity in that the region produced too much oil.

[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2532493]4) A word of friendly advice, don't buy any oil stocks even in the short term. Oil is only headed one way... down.[/QUOTE]I agree 1000%. I think what you are seeing is the anti-dollar trade as the Fed is just throwing money at banks and hedge funds and investors, and they are encouraged to look into anything else but the dollar. Hence, the rise in oil and in bitcoin. What is so fucked up is that Venezuela, Venezuela! Is using the dollar as a currency now.

Peak production was 100.7 million bpd in Q1 2020. The world never went higher than 95.5 million bpd in 2020. And BTW, that number was with Venezuela and Libya producing next to nothing and Iranian oil production cut in half. Getting production back up to 2016 numbers, and you are looking at 6 million more BPD of capacity on line.

There is no question there is an overall glut. EIA is projecting a 4 million BPD increase in consumption in 2021, and I just do not see that happening this year. Maybe in 2022 when the world is vaccinated against Covid but not now.

There used to be two ETFs that you could buy to short the oil market, DTO and SCO but now SCO is the only one left. It might be time to look at it again. The potential on it is huge.

[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2532563]Yikes! Are you recommending something akin to a communal economy? While complex economies with enormous private enterprises demand some government involvement, I'm not sure if you are just making a point about political labels or making a case.[/QUOTE]No I am not making a case I am making a point that apart from some historical tribal societies communism has never existed. If people keep complaining about communism as though it actually exists then they really are just showing their lack of understanding of what they are talking about.

Just because a party might call itself a communist party does not mean it is one!

Even China which is often described as a communist country is in fact a hybrid socialist / free market society. Having visited China many times it is clear they have been very economically successful, they have great infrastructure, but I wouldn't want to be a Chinese living there nor would I want to live in the US where both the infrastructure and society are in decay.

[QUOTE=ShooBree;2532356]Funny how you ignore the fact that left wing fascists tried to burn down and take over American cities this past summer. It seems obvious to me that you're unable to see the truth. You talk like a true extremist.

Biden's the most radical president USA ever had. He's trying to further divide the country and adhere to sectarianism. He's trying to turn USA into Lebanon.[/QUOTE]Show one city that has been burnt down or taken over? People were protesting real problems vs Jan 6 were the attempted coup was based on one big lie!

[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2532566]That might be correct, but why not let private money decide if it's worth building it? ...[/QUOTE]Okay, good idea! My guess is that if it were private money it would have gone away a long time ago. The money that's in it so far is guaranteed by Alberta for, what I think are, ideological reasons. So, there's only dumb, Provincial money behind this. With the current (and future) price of crude, this would never, ever be done with private money.

[QUOTE=Canada;2532486]Biden has been in office for less than a month. His record so far.

Cancel XL Pipeline. Hurts revenue for all the states it was going on reducing funds for schools roads and infrastructure. Helps his biggest donors. Warren Buffet and Bill Gates who own the majority of railway stocks. At least my one share of Buffet Stock increased $55,000. 00 since Biden was elected.

Shut down drilling on federal lands. Raising oil prices from $38 to $61 per barrel and increasing daily. Watch pump prices increase.

Rejoining WHO and Paris Accord.

Opening our borders to illegal immigrants and agreeing to give 11,000,000 illegals citizenship. Open border to Mexico but wants to close border into Florida from all other states.

If this isn't radical what is?[/QUOTE]Are you a Newfie, I hear they are a bit simple.

Shutting down Keystone hurts Canada and makes no difference to anyone in the states as the Canadians wear the costs as they must sell at market rates. At the end of the day the refineries could just invest to treat lighter crudes but they obviously don't see the upside in the fuel markets to justify the expenditures. It is more likely with the increase in electric vehicles that those refineries will be shutting down, not worrying about the supply from Canada. (Note how carmakers who are announcing a migration to electric are showing strong share price growth).

Drilling has not been shut down on Federal lands. There was a pause of 60 days on issuing new leases. Even when Trump allowed bidding in Alaska there was virtually no interest. $60 a barrel is about what the price of oil was pre Covid. The US oil industry is not viable at $40 so hardly worth a comment.

Joining the Paris accord is a good thing. The US is meeting its commitments so hardly a burden. In fact because renewable energy is becoming so cheap the US is accelerating its ability to meet future targets.

Rejoining WHO so new pandemic threats can be identified and managed externally rather than taking hold of the country. Imagine if the president doesn't disband the departments set up to manage pandemics. Imagine not having a president whose personal wealth does not depend on the hotel industry who did everything possible to prevent the shutdown of travel both foreign and domestic and by doing so helped the widespread dispersement of a highly contagious disease.

The borders have not been reopened to illegals. Once again you would ignore the fact that most illegals are in the country from visa overstays. You also ignore the fact that they come because there is a market for their labour. Kill that market by levying crippling fines on employers and the demand would dry up.

The 11 million illegals exist already, making them legal changes little if anything.

The most radical thing about what you wrote is that there are 70 million Americans who would agree with your stupidity.

[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2532566]That might be correct, but why not let private money decide if it's worth building it? You have probably seen pipeline maps of the USA It's obviously a tried and true method for transporting oil. I think it became too much a symbol for climate activists. I'm not much for symbolic gestures, but admittedly they are important in politics.

What is your stance on natural gas? Or nuclear energy?

My take is climate activists are not pragmatic on any level. Natural gas and nuclear energy could be very helpful in reducing CO2 emissions until clean renewables make technological advances.[/QUOTE]Natural gas and nuclear are the smartest choices for USA. Malaysia power is over 50% generated by natural gas and all their vehicles are natural gas. USA has huge reserves of natural gas that could give low electric prices to everyone. But the green deal will convert us to wind and solar and double and triple everyone power costs. Like Germany and California that have gotten to 30% green power and their electricity bills have doubled. Estimate tripled if they get to 50%. Low income families will not be able to afford electricity for their house let alone an electric car. This week in Texas shows the weakness in wind power.

[QUOTE=Canada;2532628]...This week in Texas shows the weakness in wind power.[/QUOTE]This is just a bold face, simple, lie. It is Republican disinformation. According to the State ERCOT it's a lie. According to right wing Texas news sources it is a lie. You are repeating a proven lie. I believe you know this is a lie and are deliberately spreading disinformation.

[URL]https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/texas-wind-turbines-frozen/[/URL]

We do not approve of willful liars on this forum. You should apologize to this forum for knowingly repeating this lie.

[QUOTE=Canada;2532628]This week in Texas shows the weakness in wind power.[/QUOTE]Explain to me how wind power showed weakness in Texas this week?

We have this post to clearly show your lack of intelligence and willingness to believe right-wing lies.

[QUOTE=ShooBree;2532324]Hilarious. LMFAO![/QUOTE]Are these dumb pictures supposed to be worth three thousand words?

They aren't.

Communism has never existed in real life. Go ahead, prove me wrong if you can.

No one here has hots for communism. Like I've said before, all attempts at building a communist society have ended up in failure, human misery and mass graves.

But you and your ideological allies are grossly misusing all 'isms. ' Fascism, communism, socialism too.

I understand why fearmongers are doing this. Throw "communism" around a bit, and people start running for cover.

Just don't scare yourselves shitless, too, you guys.

Funny, a discussion like this one is not exactly why I come to ISG, but it kind of pulls you in, LOL.

[QUOTE=Canada;2532628]Natural gas and nuclear are the smartest choices for USA. Malaysia power is over 50% generated by natural gas and all their vehicles are natural gas. USA has huge reserves of natural gas that could give low electric prices to everyone. But the green deal will convert us to wind and solar and double and triple everyone power costs. Like Germany and California that have gotten to 30% green power and their electricity bills have doubled. Estimate tripled if they get to 50%. Low income families will not be able to afford electricity for their house let alone an electric car. This week in Texas shows the weakness in wind power.[/QUOTE]This week in Texas shows why you do not deregulate. These plants were not required to winterize and that is the problem. El Paso which is on the western grid is fine. Public utilities need to remain public utilities, privatization is a scam.

[QUOTE=Canada;2532628]Natural gas and nuclear are the smartest choices for USA. Malaysia power is over 50% generated by natural gas and all their vehicles are natural gas. USA has huge reserves of natural gas that could give low electric prices to everyone. But the green deal will convert us to wind and solar and double and triple everyone power costs. Like Germany and California that have gotten to 30% green power and their electricity bills have doubled. Estimate tripled if they get to 50%. Low income families will not be able to afford electricity for their house let alone an electric car. This week in Texas shows the weakness in wind power.[/QUOTE]Natural gas is why Texas is in crisis. All the valves and control systems don't like the cold so the gas doesn't flow! Solar and wind are taking over because they are cheaper irrespective of government policy. Nuclear is just not economic to build at least not in the US. This week Texas showed what poor policy brings you. They don't plan for freezing weather and when they get it they cannot cope. Wind turbines work in frezzing conditions if you put the anti freeze devices on them. Natural gas flows when you use the correct valves and control systems. Republicans fail again and try to blame everyone but their own policy failures. Maybe if they connected to other grids then they could have been helped out by competent operators.

[QUOTE=Goatscrot;2532686]This week in Texas shows why you do not deregulate. These plants were not required to winterize and that is the problem. El Paso which is on the western grid is fine. Public utilities need to remain public utilities, privatization is a scam.[/QUOTE]Privatization generates fees for the banksters, and interest income streams for the parasites. Creating tollbooths for essential services: this is the model being inflicted on the citizenry. As long as they can get away with it, they'll keep doing it.

[QUOTE=Golfinho;2532492]Take a look at the Democrat Party donor base and you'll see who owns them. The swing voters or the part of the electorate that would vote a third party will come from both main parties, from all parts of the political spectrum, not at all exclusively from non-Trump republicans as your mainstream media would have you believe. Just look at the polls on who supports universal or one-payer healthcare and you'll see where the votes are.[/QUOTE]IMHO, they both are bought and paid for by many of the same donors. Best to support both because one will lose and one will win and you want to be able to tell the winner you supported him. The mob was very good at that too. Agree on who wants a 3rd party. Many from each party and Indies but for different reasons. The reason I said non-Trump Republicans is because I have seen at least 3 or 4 saying that. At least 2 from Lincoln group.

But to be absolutely clear, I have little to no faith in any political system or party. All run by self serving people who know how to talk and tell people what they want to hear. Kind of like preachers who can get the last penny from a poor man.

Who was DB Cooper and did he live after his hijacking?

[QUOTE=MemoeNasty;2532888]He'll spend a lot of time in Mexico because their judicial system is very slow. Eventually he will be extradited to the United States because Mexico will not want to take care of him for the rest of his natural life. As far as I know Mexico does not have a death penalty but murder does carry a life sentence. Once he is in the United States he will spend some time in prison but will eventually be let out. I expect this whole process to take 10-15 years. I read that he is 26 years old. I expect him to be out by the time he's 40-45. I don't know why this happened but the pics of this dead chica laying on the floor with towels covering her and blood everywhere is the sickest thing I've seen happen in the zona. It looks like something out of a horror movie. Many may disagree but I think the club should be punished harshly. They're operating illegally in a pandemic and should be held accountable for their employee. Hefty fines and maybe shut down for a period of time. Moe.[/QUOTE]Well it's a clear cut case. If he only gets 10 years in prison God help us all. Between covid, liberals defund prison cops mandate, maybe he gets 5 years. 5 years ago I would say he gets 20. United states certainly has changed a lot since covid arrived, majority politically active people (rioters, looters, killers, cancel culture) are definitely anti locking people up long term even for murder.

[QUOTE=Dogers69;2532944]Well it's a clear cut case. If he only gets 10 years in prison God help us all. Between covid, liberals defund prison cops mandate, maybe he gets 5 years. 5 years ago I would say he gets 20. United states certainly has changed a lot since covid arrived, majority politically active people (rioters, looters, killers, cancel culture) are definitely anti locking people up long term even for murder.[/QUOTE]Here we go again with another misinformed individual on the "Big Lie" ticket. Biden is not going to defund the police. As a matter of fact, he is going to invest more in police. Do your homework and don't start spreading that Trump and Republican "Big Lie" BS with us.