Stupid Shit in Kyiv

Xpartan, this isn't the most entertaining thing I've read in the New Yorker, but you'd probably find it a worthwhile read anyway based on some of your posts.

[URL]https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-weekend-essay/could-putin-lose-power[/URL]

It provides the views of some experts on Russia and regime change about what may be in store for Putin. My takeaway is that there's a 50% or greater chance that we're stuck dealing with Putin until he voluntarily "retires" or, more likely, dies of natural causes. So the realpolitik favored by DramaFree and me makes more sense than blind, idealistic support for Ukraine. I'm not saying the latter is necessarily what you favor BTW.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2832455]Xpartan, this isn't the most entertaining thing I've read in the New Yorker, but you'd probably find it a worthwhile read anyway based on some of your posts.

[URL]https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-weekend-essay/could-putin-lose-power[/URL]

It provides the views of some experts on Russia and regime change about what may be in store for Putin. My takeaway is that there's a 50% or greater chance that we're stuck dealing with Putin until he voluntarily "retires" or, more likely, dies of natural causes. So the realpolitik favored by DramaFree and me makes more sense than blind, idealistic support for Ukraine. I'm not saying the latter is necessarily what you favor BTW.[/QUOTE]Why bring Drama into this? He's a paid Russian bot, you aren't. You're just wrong, LOL.

Look, I understand why you and the New Yorker are skeptical (by the way, the author of this piece is a brother of Masha Gessen who wrote a solid book about Putin). But Russia is not a normal country. It's a country of sudden changes, where things seem the most monolith right before the implosion. Just re-read the passages about the Bolshevik revolution and the "smuta".

I give them a year.

And that's generous.

Fuck realpolitic!

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2832455]It provides the views of some experts on Russia and regime change about what may be in store for Putin. My takeaway is that there's a 50% or greater chance that we're stuck dealing with Putin until he voluntarily "retires" or, more likely, dies of natural causes. So the realpolitik favored by DramaFree and me makes more sense than blind, idealistic support for Ukraine. I'm not saying the latter is necessarily what you favor BTW.[/QUOTE]Firstly, don't lump yourself in the same bucket as that Muscovite shill Dramafree, read his post history to see what a complete disingenuous fuckwit he is.

Russia will lose the war, and may even lose Crimea (this is still uncertain). After they lose, Putin's hold will be untenable and I would predict the collapse of the Federation, if Crimea is lost, then the collapse is pretty much certain. All the vassal states will have lost both their economic future and their men to a pointless war.

My last visit to Ukraine just over a year ago, oh how I miss my Ukraine. A brief report from my last visit, visited three massage salons Dream (2 occasions), Relax (2 occasions) and Topless. One salon was fair, one salon was good, one salon was absolutely incredible. Spent 10 hours with one girl from Gia, below average experience, my two favorite girls from Gia, Liza who's still on the site and Nina who left maybe a year ago. Called an apartment from the Minuet site, a 19 yr old from Dnipro came for 4 hours, real sweet girl.

Change of subject, the first time I visited Russia (4 trips in total) was May of '92, wonderful time. From what I understand currently, 35 percent of mortgages, 20 percent car loans and 15 percent personal loans are in default in Russia. I believe Russia will collapse (I hope soon), and when it does real estate in Russia may be a good investment; of course, there needs to be some stability in a new government. The reason I mentioned this is because I think the next time I travel to Russia, it will be similar to my '92 visit.

[QUOTE=VinDici;2832635]Firstly, don't lump yourself in the same bucket as that Muscovite shill Dramafree, read his post history to see what a complete disingenuous fuckwit he is.

Russia will lose the war, and may even lose Crimea (this is still uncertain). After they lose, Putin's hold will be untenable and I would predict the collapse of the Federation, if Crimea is lost, then the collapse is pretty much certain. All the vassal states will have lost both their economic future and their men to a pointless war.[/QUOTE]You guys can are in total denial, Ukraine is getting its ass kicked. In you liberal world, this is a win. Ukraine will probably lose Odessa in the next couple of months.

[QUOTE=Xpartan;2832555]Look, I understand why you and the New Yorker are skeptical (by the way, the author of this piece is a brother of Masha Gessen who wrote a solid book about Putin). But Russia is not a normal country. It's a country of sudden changes, where things seem the most monolith right before the implosion. Just re-read the passages about the Bolshevik revolution and the "smuta".

I give them a year.

And that's generous.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=VinDici;2832635]Russia will lose the war, and may even lose Crimea (this is still uncertain). After they lose, Putin's hold will be untenable and I would predict the collapse of the Federation, if Crimea is lost, then the collapse is pretty much certain. All the vassal states will have lost both their economic future and their men to a pointless war.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=DramaFree11;2832774]You guys can are in total denial, Ukraine is getting its ass kicked. In you liberal world, this is a win. Ukraine will probably lose Odessa in the next couple of months.[/QUOTE]My guess is that this will drag on for years, like Afghanistan (versus the USSR or USA, take your pick) or Vietnam. That's unless the USA and Europe are willing to step up to the plate and put an end to this, by providing Putin a face saving way to exit this mess. That might involve some combination of providing a security guarantee to Ukraine, Ukraine formally ceding Crimea and part of the Donbass to Russia, a guarantee of Ukrainian neutrality, and substantial foreign aid to Ukraine to rebuild.

As DramaFree said, many Ukrainians have been and will be killed and displaced. The only winners will be the western defense contractors and the Iranians and others who supply weapons to Russia.

Having read the New Yorker article, I am now an expert and believe there's a 50/50 chance Putin or his surrogate will rule Russia until Putin dies. Which could be a long time. And what happens after he dies? Well, maybe the same thing that happened in Cuba and Venezuela. Nothing, no change in the behavior of the regime. Patrushev (former head of FSB) and Medvedev (see below) are perhaps his likeliest successors and they're just as or more extreme than Putin.

Russia has massive resources and manpower compared to Ukraine. Right now it's only spending 4. 4% of its GDP on defense. That's less than we did from World War II to 1990. A lot less than we were spending in the 1950's and 1960's. And Putin knows if he just ups and leaves Ukraine, it will weaken his position in Russia. Remember there was an unsuccessful revolution in 1905 when Russia was defeated by Japan. Arguably the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan was tied to the end of the USSR. And the premature withdrawal of Russia from World War I coincided with the abdication of the Tsar and the Bolshevik Revolution. There's little chance that Putin's going to withdraw from Ukraine unless he's somehow allowed to save face.

And yes, there is the potential for World War III. Russia's former prime minister and president, Dmitry Medvedev, one of Putin's closest cronies, said Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons, more than once. Putin's kind of said the same thing. And they're not just referring to tactical weapons, but also ICBM's.

Presumably though Putin has learned his lesson. This will be repetitious for Xpartan, but I believe Putin is rational, nationalistic and paranoid. I don't think he's bat shit crazy like Hitler, and I don't think he's going to do something like try to take over the Baltic states. He got a lot more than he bargained for when he invaded Ukraine, and won't want to repeat the same mistake.

[url]https://www.newsweek.com/russia-spending-over-85-billion-military-this-year-report-1810181[/url]

[QUOTE=VinDici;2832102]There is a solution fuckwit, RuZZians leave the territory of Ukraine and respect the 1991 borders and treaties they signed. Ask them to stop invading and attacking, not Ukraine to stop defending.[/QUOTE]I'd argue that based on the assurances of Baker, Bush, Kohl, Gates and others, the Russians never dreamed NATO would have expanded eastward as far as it did. The Russians felt betrayed. Xpartan disagrees. Please see the Xpartan / Tiny dialogs for more detail.

[URL]http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/forum/showthread.php?2467-American-Politics&p=2829022&viewfull=1#post2829022[/URL].

[URL]http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/forum/showthread.php?2467-American-Politics&p=2829138&viewfull=1#post2829138[/URL].

[URL]http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/forum/showthread.php?2467-American-Politics&p=2831160&viewfull=1#post2831160[/URL].

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2832830]Russia has massive resources and manpower compared to Ukraine. Right now it's only spending 4. 5% of its GDP on defense. [/QUOTE]Isolated numbers paint a distorted picture. First, your 4. 5 % has zero credibility because Russians know how to cook the books. When, occasionally, they're not lying, you might see numbers that make some sense.

[QUOTE]The government's priorities in 2023 from the draft budget read with crystal clarity. "The head of state has instructed us to take measures to meet the needs of our Armed Forces and military formations," Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said. Spending on the military and on security services will grow from 24 percent of budget spending projected for 2022 to almost 33 percent in 2023 (9.5 trillion rubles). Spending on the economy will decrease compared to that in 2022, and the small increase in social spending will be eaten up by inflation.

Financing of the military and security services has never before reached such a large share of the federal budget. Spending on homeland security has almost doubled since 2021. Payments to mobilized forces alone may require about 2 trillion rubles. They are made through the Pension Fund, the costs of which will therefore increase by 19 percent. The share of "secret" budget spending (to make it more difficult to estimate the cost of the war) has increased from 16 percent to 22.4 percent. The financing of patriotic programs in schools has increased sixfold. The elections of 2024 will surely require direct unscheduled payments to the population, which will increase the deficit. [/QUOTE][URL]https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/putins-war-costs-shifting-burden-population[/URL]

But mostly they lie.

[QUOTE] Russia is keeping an unprecedented one-third of its budget spending out of the public eye, a stark measure of how a year of war against Ukraine has redrawn government finances and economic priorities.

Classified or unspecified expenditure through March 24 has surged to 2.4 trillion rubles ($31 billion), Finance Ministry data show, more than double the level in the same period a year ago, according to Bloomberg Economicss estimates. Plans set out for 2023 envisaged the budgets secret share at almost a quarter, Bloomberg calculations show. [/QUOTE][URL]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-28/war-and-secretive-spending-is-eating-away-at-russia-s-budget[/URL]

Look at the diagram in the article while you're at it. 3 trillion rubles are classified, while only 0. 5 and 0. 3 are spent on defense and security respectively. Yeah, right!

To conclude, your official 4. 5 % GDP means exactly dick, as they say in Men in Black, but even that puny number is over 10 times more than they spent in Afghanistan (0. 4 % and please keep in mind that back then they weren't as "creative" with numbers as they are today.

Here are a few more things that make their 4. 5 % miracle number even less impressive.

1. Wholesale thievery. You would presume that outright theft and corruption in the Army are dealt with now that there is a war raging. Well, you'd presume wrong, LOL.

2. 340,000 of armed people along with heavy military equipment are stationed far away from the front lines (National Guards). Guess who get better pay and way better benefits than the cannon fodder they throw at the enemy. Putin will need them to crush mass dissent on the Day X, which he know is coming.

3. $300 billion frozen Russia's Central Bank assets.

4. Sanctions! Yes they sell energy bars to China and India (at a huge discount), but spending rupees and yuan is not exactly straightforward.

5. From January to April 2023 Russia already spent it yearly budget (Russia stopped publishing data on budget spending in June).

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2832830]And yes, there is the potential for World War III. Russia's former prime minister and president, Dmitry Medvedev, one of Putin's closest cronies, said Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons, more than once. Putin's kind of said the same thing. And they're not just referring to tactical weapons, but also ICBM's.

[/QUOTE]Yes, there is the potential, but not because of that useless alky. Medvedev might've been a puppet president at one point, but today, he's reduced to a role of an official Kremlin jester. The recent death of Vladimir Zhirinovsky left too much void in the arena of political provocations, so Medvedev was only too eager to apply.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2832830]I believe Putin is rational, nationalistic and paranoid. I don't think he's bat shit crazy like Hitler.

[/QUOTE]Believe what you want, but Hitler wasn't always bat shit crazy. And Putin's days of rational thinking are well behind him. I mean when a dude gets his anus licked incessantly for 20 years -- of course his shit will get to his brain! Come on, that's pure science.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2832833]I'd argue that based on the assurances of Baker, Bush, Kohl, Gates and others, the Russians never dreamed NATO would have expanded eastward as far as it did. The Russians felt betrayed. Xpartan disagrees. Please see the Xpartan / Tiny dialogs for more detail.

[URL]http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/forum/showthread.php?2467-American-Politics&p=2829022&viewfull=1#post2829022[/URL].

[URL]http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/forum/showthread.php?2467-American-Politics&p=2829138&viewfull=1#post2829138[/URL].

[URL]http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/forum/showthread.php?2467-American-Politics&p=2831160&viewfull=1#post2831160[/URL].[/QUOTE]First of all, even if this "Nato Promise" fairytale weren't a Russian propaganda piece, it wouldn't justify Putin's war. So I'm not sure why you had to bring it to this thread.

Secondly, beating a dead horse over and over is cruel. Let the poor animal rest in peace already.

But seriously, what does any lawyer tell you about "verbal contracts"? If it's not in writing, it doesn't exist.

Do you suggest that state leaders are unaware of what's known to any law school graduate?

There is no evidence that Russians were ever OFFICIALLY promised that Nato wouldn't expand to the East. If there had been, you would've linked it already.

Was the question mentioned? Sure. Many times. By serious people in suites and ties.

It doesn't matter.

The Russians aren't idiots. They're cold-blooded and calculated liars and war mongers. You're trying to tell me that Putin believed in some mythical "promises" and "assurances" from Nato [B]while he himself was toying with an idea of joining the Alliance[/B]?

Putin Says 'Why Not?' to Russia Joining NATO.

[URL]https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2000/03/06/putin-says-why-not-to-russia-joining-nato/c1973032-c10f-4bff-9174-8cae673790cd[/URL]

Gee, man, if you really, truly believe all this nonsense, do I have the only authentic bridge in London to sell for your enjoyment!

Gorbachev said he had never received or asked for that guarantee.

[QUOTE] RBTH: One of the key issues that has arisen in connection with the events in Ukraine is NATO expansion into the East. Do you get the feeling that your Western partners lied to you when they were developing their future plans in Eastern Europe? Why didnt you insist that the promises made to you particularly U.S. Secretary of State James Bakers promise that NATO would not expand into the East be legally encoded? I will quote Baker: NATO will not move one inch further east.

M.G.: The topic of NATO expansion was not discussed at all, and it wasnt brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a singe Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didnt bring it up, either. Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATOs military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces from the alliance would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Bakers statement, mentioned in your question, was made in that context. Kohl and German Vice Chancellor Hans-Dietrich Genscher talked about it.[/QUOTE][URL]https://www.rbth.com/international/2014/10/16/mikhail_gorbachev_i_am_against_all_walls_40673.html[/URL]

And yes, I know that Gorbachev sometimes said other things. Well, he and his foundation didn't live in vacuum. He lived under Vladimir Putin, so I'm not surprised he couldn't always deviate from the party line. However the interview I linked here is from 2014. Crimea's already annexed, and Donbass is aflame.

I think it was very brave of him to tell the truth when the truth was badly needed.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2832830]My guess is that this will drag on for years, like Afghanistan (versus the USSR or USA, take your pick) or Vietnam. That's unless the USA and Europe are willing to step up to the plate and put an end to this, by providing Putin a face saving way to exit this mess. That might involve some combination of providing a security guarantee to Ukraine, Ukraine formally ceding Crimea and part of the Donbass to Russia, a guarantee of Ukrainian neutrality, and substantial foreign aid to Ukraine to rebuild.

As DramaFree said, many Ukrainians have been and will be killed and displaced. The only winners will be the western defense contractors and the Iranians and others who supply weapons to Russia.

Having read the New Yorker article, I am now an expert and believe there's a 50/50 chance Putin or his surrogate will rule Russia until Putin dies. Which could be a long time. And what happens after he dies? Well, maybe the same thing that happened in Cuba and Venezuela. Nothing, no change in the behavior of the regime. Patrushev (former head of FSB) and Medvedev (see below) are perhaps his likeliest successors and they're just as or more extreme than Putin.

Russia has massive resources and manpower compared to Ukraine. Right now it's only spending 4. 4% of its GDP on defense. That's less than we did from World War II to 1990. A lot less than we were spending in the 1950's and 1960's. And Putin knows if he just ups and leaves Ukraine, it will weaken his position in Russia. Remember there was an unsuccessful revolution in 1905 when Russia was defeated by Japan. Arguably the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan was tied to the end of the USSR. And the premature withdrawal of Russia from World War I coincided with the abdication of the Tsar and the Bolshevik Revolution. There's little chance that Putin's going to withdraw from Ukraine unless he's somehow allowed to save face.

And yes, there is the potential for World War III. Russia's former prime minister and president, Dmitry Medvedev, one of Putin's closest cronies, said Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons, more than once. Putin's kind of said the same thing. And they're not just referring to tactical weapons, but also ICBM's.

Presumably though Putin has learned his lesson. This will be repetitious for Xpartan, but I believe Putin is rational, nationalistic and paranoid. I don't think he's bat shit crazy like Hitler, and I don't think he's going to do something like try to take over the Baltic states. He got a lot more than he bargained for when he invaded Ukraine, and won't want to repeat the same mistake.

[url]https://www.newsweek.com/russia-spending-over-85-billion-military-this-year-report-1810181[/url][/QUOTE]I don't know how many of you here are infact on the ground and in Ukriane.

But I am.

I'm several times a Month close to where the Action is and see alot of things with my own eyes.

Someone here think Russia will win, that's so way of from the real truth as it can be.

You should see the russians POW, they look like shit, bad maintance, bad weapons etc.

The Ukrain army are every month getting more and more well equipped, yes it can be better, but the hard troops get what they need and if you prove yourself you will also get.

Yes there are looses on ukrain side, but in my opinion its still in favor of the Ukrain side we maybe talk 1 to 10 or more.

Russia Used in Jan-Feb 40% of the money the allocated for defence for all 2023, and that's 33.5% of the total national budget in those 2 month).

In 2022 the total use on defence was 17.5% of the National budget.

This cannot go one forever, you already see it in Russia where they can't spend what they need on hospitals, HIV medicin, Etc. Etc.

Its one big Snowball just waiting for social unrest.

To everyone who doubt all this, come and Visit ukrain and feel and speak with people and you will understand that they will not give up.

But Russia at one point will need give up or break in pieces.

[QUOTE=DramaFree11;2832774]You guys can are in total denial, Ukraine is getting its ass kicked. In you liberal world, this is a win. Ukraine will probably lose Odessa in the next couple of months.[/QUOTE]I'll remember this dumbass, and in September we will remind you about your retarded prediction, that is if you haven't been made into a cube of meat by then.

[QUOTE=VinDici;2832903]I'll remember this dumbass, and in September we will remind you about your retarded prediction, that is if you haven't been made into a cube of meat by then.[/QUOTE]A cube of meat LOLOLOL! [B]SPAM[/B] which precisely describes his posts LMAO!

[QUOTE=VinDici;2832903]I'll remember this dumbass, and in September we will remind you about your retarded prediction, that is if you haven't been made into a cube of meat by then.[/QUOTE]Yes, and I said I was wrong. Again at what cost, Ukraine is slowly being destroyed.

-woman / children are leaving the country.

-the men are being killed.

-no one is having babies.

-Europe and other parts of the world are in Recessions.

-NATO is mess and falling apart.

-Putin is as strong as ever, in certain parts of the world even stronger.

-Russia is much stronger then before.

-Ukraine infrastructure is being destroyed.

-China is stronger.

I can go on. Ukraine and there Allie's are getting destroyed and humiliated.

[QUOTE=Xpartan;2832880]First of all, even if this "Nato Promise" fairytale weren't a Russian propaganda piece, it wouldn't justify Putin's war. So I'm not sure why you had to bring it to this thread.

Secondly, beating a dead horse over and over is cruel. Let the poor animal rest in peace already.

[/QUOTE]I may have misinterpreted VinDici's post, "RuZZians leave the territory of Ukraine and respect the 1991 borders and treaties they signed. " I thought he was referring to the negotiations and treaty between the west and Russia in 1990 and 1991 that resulted in the unification of Germany. And was part of the reason the Soviet republics disbanded their union and also allowed for the disbandment of the Warsaw Pact. Russia believed it was duped by the west IMHO. You ably presented the other side of the argument. The links were just for VinDici's edification. And yes, maybe he didn't need edifying, because he may have been thinking about something completely different.

[QUOTE=Hestendk;2832884]I don't know how many of you here are infact on the ground and in Ukriane.

But I am.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Xpartan;2832862]Isolated numbers paint a distorted picture. First, your 4. 5 % has zero credibility because Russians know how to cook the books. When, occasionally, they're not lying, you might see numbers that make some sense.[/QUOTE]Good posts gentlemen. Hestendk, thanks for your "on the ground perspective. " Very interesting, I hope you'll tell us more.

You've made a good case that Russia's military expenditures are actually higher than what they claim. From the Wilson and Bloomberg links though, it looks to me like they're still spending substantially less, both as a % of GDP and the total Russian federal expenditures, than we were in the 1960's. And perhaps around the same or not much more than we were as a % of GDP in the 1970's and 1980's. Furthermore, the numbers in Xpartan's links point towards an actual Russian federal budget deficit of less than 4% of GDP in 2023. Ours was 12% of GDP in 2021 and 5. 4% in 2022.

If you want to verify, please note that Russia's federal government expenditures were typically about 18% of GDP. And these charts show USA Defense expenditures as a % of GDP, and total USA Federal expenditures as a % of GDP.

[URL]https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/military-spending-defense-budget[/URL]

[URL]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S[/URL]

Russia's Achilles heal may be that it's very dependent on revenues from taxation from oil and gas. I suspect they have a bigger underground economy than we do, so it will be more difficult to raise money from increasing the income tax.

As to sanctions, they didn't work very well for Cuba, Iran or North Korea. I don't think they'll work well on Russia either. As to the $300 billion in reserves, Russia's effectively confiscating western assets as well.

One caveat, if Hestendk's correct that Russia spent 40% of annual budgeted military expenditures in January and February, and Xpartan's right about spending the annual military budget by April, and if they continue spending at that rate, then that's going to be big burden on the country. And possibly DramaFree's right, the Russians may unfortunately make headway in months to come, and many more Ukrainian and Russian lives will be lost, because they're pumping more resources into the war. Where did you get that info? I'm not seeing it in Xpartan's links.