Moscow

one thing that is clear is the Darwinian nature of the dyev. As news filters through of an exodus of the young and formerly wealthy to the likes of Phuket and Goa, i have had no less than 4 dyevs ask me if they too should head to Goa or Phuket and catch someone with money. its blatent and shameless. They smell the fear on the streets of Moscow and want to know whats the safest play.

Foreigners may even get some WGF back

[QUOTE=Roger Mellie]one thing that is clear is the Darwinian nature of the dyev. As news filters through of an exodus of the young and formerly wealthy to the likes of Phuket and Goa, i have had no less than 4 dyevs ask me if they too should head to Goa or Phuket and catch someone with money. its blatent and shameless. They smell the fear on the streets of Moscow and want to know whats the safest play.

Foreigners may even get some WGF back[/QUOTE]It is and if it didn't potentially play into our hands, I'd find it even depressing.

One girl from Petes who had gone more or less cold on me about 6 months ago is more or less begging me to invite her to Moscow.

It's too early to call it panic, but that moment is closer than the "Russia Strong" crew would have dreamed possible a year ago.

My driver told me to pay him in dollars, euros or whatever. He didn't want rubles. There is real uncertainty here.

[QUOTE=Doctor_Skank]
My driver told me to pay him in dollars, euros or whatever. He didn't want rubles. There is real uncertainty here.[/QUOTE]I am headed over on Feb 7th so if that's true then perhaps I need to bring USD rather than get rubles from the ATM. What's the max I can bring in w/o declaration? less than $3,000? I forget.

[QUOTE=Jake993]I am headed over on Feb 7th so if that's true then perhaps I need to bring USD rather than get rubles from the ATM. What's the max I can bring in w/o declaration? less than $3,000? I forget.[/QUOTE]You can still get rubles everywhere and pay with them, even though I have heard some ATMs etc. have run out of dollars and euros.

The ruble has lost like 25% in the last couple weeks, so people are genuinely worried that it is going to fall even more.

Russians are "hot or cold" or "top or flop" kind of people and extremely emotional, not to mention fatalistic.... so they are quick to react to instability of any sort. I'm not clever enough to know what will happen in the next few weeks and months, but the mood here is pretty grim among both "normal people" and "biznessmyen".

I even heard Putin's name used in vain today on occasion.

It is not like the lights have gone out here or anything, but I genuinely suggest being a bít more careful on the streets. They're getting a bit testy.

One good thing, traffic is down significantly.

I've only been here since last Friday and will stay until next Wednesday, so my impression is based on just a week and a half. The true "locals" will be able to judge things better.

[QUOTE=Doctor_Skank]It is and if it didn't potentially play into our hands, I'd find it even depressing.

One girl from Petes who had gone more or less cold on me about 6 months ago is more or less begging me to invite her to Moscow. [/QUOTE]
I don't have Skank's thick address book, only a handful of contacts,
but I was pleasantly surprised to find some of the girls I had given up on
(for lack of maintenance on my part - haven't been back in more than 1 year)
re-establishing contact, out of the blue. Three in the last month.
These are not even girls I have screwed, just one dater and two pen-pal prospects.
But all of a sudden they have revisited their old address books and renewed contact with me.

Now, I just have to get over there to capitalize on this....

[QUOTE=Jake993]I am headed over on Feb 7th so if that's true then perhaps I need to bring USD rather than get rubles from the ATM. What's the max I can bring in w/o declaration? less than $3,000? I forget.[/QUOTE]Up to 3000$ with no declaration. Up to 10000$ without permisstion but need to declare. All currency in your wallet and pockets counts (rubles + $ + EUR + whatsoever).

Be interesting to hear from the mangus meister about the credit crunch and what its doing to prices in the provinces.

[QUOTE=Roger Mellie]
prices are not crashing because of any russian bubble, but because of the US housing bubble[/QUOTE]

Please reassure us all that you don't actually believe this? That you were just doing a very good Putin impersonation? :)

[QUOTE=Roger Mellie]prices are not crashing because of any russian bubble, but because of the US housing bubble[/QUOTE]In Moscow nothing is crushing. Prices for real estate remain the same. They just "crushed" some 5-10% in December, mostly because of holidays. Now they restore. Other things only grow in price. And very, very fast.

[QUOTE=Helena Moscow]In Moscow nothing is crushing. Prices for real estate remain the same. They just "crushed" some 5-10% in December, mostly because of holidays. Now they restore. Other things only grow in price. And very, very fast.[/QUOTE]Well besides that apartments can be rented about 25-30% below prices 6 months ago. Yes indeed some prices are going up (in Rubles) because the Ruble is loosing fast fast fast. In terms of prices in Euro or USD stable. And yes traffic seems to ease. Less cues at airport. Hotels have lower occupancy. Meaning less men to pay top $ for ladies. Hmmm market forces are bringing pricing down. Of course if you opt for the 10's only you will pay.

[QUOTE=Helena Moscow]In Moscow nothing is crushing. Prices for real estate remain the same. They just "crushed" some 5-10% in December, mostly because of holidays. Now they restore. Other things only grow in price. And very, very fast.[/QUOTE]

Real estate prices haven't ostensibly fallen because sellers aren't willing to publicly announce that their properties have fallen in value. In real terms, however, they have dropped dramatically. This isn't speculation - I've been a part of real estate deals of late, and prices are down in some cases up to 50% in euro/dollar terms. In any case, it's hard to judge exactly as volume is near zero.

That said, Lenichka rightly points out that inflation is rising fast as the ruble's value deteriorates. Which goes back to Doc's point. If previously imported goods weren't marked up, then they can seem to be a bargain from a foreigner's standpoint. If however, you're paid in rubles, the price remains the same, and newly imported goods will be subject to a less favorable exchange rate. Meaning from a Russian's standpoint prices are going up... and fast.

Fortunately for those in the p4p sector, dyeffki are a domestic commodity.

Helena, in the last 6 months the price of a barrel of oil has fallen by more than $100. The Russian economy is almost wholly dependent on commodities exports. And you think real estate prices won't fall?

Indeed things are moving along in a down direction along with the rouble as monger reporting suggests. The Moscow Marriott Courtyard Fiscal Index is preparing for the next down shift. Prices indeed rise as Ms H. reports - in rouble terms which is the only one that effects most of the indigenous pop.

Dr. S. has reported in the US $ equivalent movement of his 2500 rouble contribution to the local economy.

Euro also down and US $ up so a move in providers' price lists back to US$ from Euros which occurred early last year and late year before is in the cards. Playing the Euro card provided a nice flip in revenues to providers but is wearing thin today.

One can be pretty confident, in my opinion, that the downward slide will continue to increase during the year. The conumdrum is: Massive and regular debt roll-overs are pre-programmed for all of 2009 and 2010 in foreign currency (mostly US$) for Russian State and non-state organs. Russian federal reserves have undergone a large drain to keep the rouble from completely going down the rat hole. Western funds money has largely packed up and gone and haven't heard of too many Western politicians and bankers talking about sending funds to Mother in support. Oil price revenues? 'Nuff said.

What we have here is a failure to postion liquid assets in line with regularly coming due liabilities. And not much help coming over the hill to bridge the gaps.

The next and further monger confirmation will be the regular sightings of SexySecretaries in the reformed Tochki, spreading through the outskirts. It is going to get very ugly and unpredictable. Vlado had better ensure that his private jet is fueled up, ready and on reliable 24 hour guard, just in case the crowd becomes too demanding.

For seasoned mongers, a bit of deja vue and for the adventurous a bit of nostalgia to be relived. Roll on the tumbrels .

All positive or the US$ until later in the year when the treasury induced wall of debt causes it to take its turn to fall off the table. Tochki forming in Lower Manhatten in 2010, well who knows ? A mattress factory may be a boomer of an investment over the next 3 years.

E.

Today 1,00 € = 46 RUB.

Any chances that this could continue and effectively mean 50 or 55 RUB to the € before this summer ?

[QUOTE=Prosal]Today 1,00 € = 46 RUB.

Any chances that this could continue and effectively mean 50 or 55 RUB to the € before this summer ?[/QUOTE]By next Tuesday...

Nobody knows of course, but the Russian government has stopped supporting the ruble as strongly as before. I expect it to fall some more and things to get worse before they get better.[QUOTE=Helena Moscow]In Moscow nothing is crushing. Prices for real estate remain the same. They just "crushed" some 5-10% in December, mostly because of holidays. Now they restore. Other things only grow in price. And very, very fast.[/QUOTE]
That's due to currency deflation. Loss of confidence in the Russian economy, loss of value for the ruble.

Eventual benefits for locally produced goods for export, combined with import tariffs also for the domestic economy, but everything imported will go up in price.