Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2978439]I don't believe anyone is arguing that Russia will go bankrupt[/QUOTE]That is complete bullshit. The war hawks here have said the Russian economy will fail. Besides, I thought bankruptcy analysis was too complicated for you.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2978439]Both of you are big on pontificating, the latter big on bluster, and neither of you has a propensity toward source citations. While it's more than laughable when you guys complain about bias. LOL.[/QUOTE]And here we go again. You complain about bias while you inhale propaganda. Let's look at your article's final concluding statement, A sudden collapse akin to the 1990's is unlikely: the government still has the resources to maintain a minimum level of order and control. However, we are already witnessing a largely irreversible turn toward economic stagnation.

So the concluding statements are the sanctions have not worked but just you wait. IOW, I was totally wrong but I am sure that I will be right in the future.

But this is in the first part written: Predictions of a double-digit contraction never materialized. On the contrary, Russian GDP grew by 3. 6 percent in 2023 and an expected 4 percent in 2024.

If you look at the Western economies from 2022 to 2024, GDP growth was 0. 5 to 1. 9%. [URL]https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/wirtschaftsblunder-why-germany-s-economy-is-flailing-and-what-could-help-a-c5047bf2-0c66-4a8a-bf62-e52baaef0acd[/URL].

And here is another dumb comment, No significant increase in foreign currency earnings is anticipated, as export volumes are constrained by geography primarily shipments to China, India, and other Asian nations and by sanctions, which have inflated operational costs for logistics and cross-border transactions.

[URL]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202411/1323279.shtml[/URL]

Once fully operational, the pipeline will supply 38 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas per year to Northeast China. The pipeline extends to Shanghai. The supply of Russian natural gas to China surged by 43 percent year-on-year in the first half of this year.

Okay, so there is a natural gas pipeline extending to Shanghai from Siberia that is now fully operational. So the geography constraints line is pure bullshit, and there are plans for a second pipeline.

Bottom line is Germany is not getting cheap natural gas and their economy has almost contracted because of it while China is enjoying the perks of cheap, clean natural gas.

And then there are food costs.

Historically high commodity prices, Russia's war in Ukraine, volatile fertilizer markets and other causes, have left many countries facing a cost-of-living crisis with double- and even triple-digit food price inflation. Zimbabwe has seen extreme year-on-year food price inflation reaching 285%, Venezuela is 158%, and the rate is 143% in Lebanon.

These nations need to quit griping about high food costs. How dare they. They must be Putin's dick suckers.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2978439]Call it a personal preference, but I'd rather listen to ISW or this guy than you or Elvis.[/QUOTE]Yeah, no shit. The guy is telling you that you have a 10 inch cock when you are jerking off. How do you like your sanctions now?

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2977802]Make up your mind, is it Kremlin propaganda or Tiny in a nutshell?[/QUOTE]The two are one in the same, and that's why you persistently refuse to cite your sources. And you just added another fallacy to your aresenal. Congratuations.

[URL]https://www.logical-fallacy.com/articles/false-dilemma/[/URL]

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2977802]I know Robert Wright because he wrote The Moral Animal. [/QUOTE]I see, so you quote the guy as dissing ISW but still refuse to cite your source. Whoever the guy is, you don't have any more respect for him than your audience here. At least do like Elvis and link us to Zero Hedge once in a blue moon.

While you are at it, show us who has argued that Russia is about to go broke or bankrupt. That will include the articles I posted. Until you do, you and Elvis are just running around arguing with and knocking down your caricatures, a senseless, disingenuous circle jerk while of course citing no sources.

[QUOTE=BloodRed;2978524]You can believe whichever of the 2 main reasons being thrown around for the war.

1. NATO expansion (the real reason for the war).

2. The argument that Putin wants to expand Russia or revive the ex Soviet Union.

Evidence suggests that number 1 was the main reason for the war if you look at the facts logically. If Putin was interested in recreating the former USSR / expansion, he would've not gone through 2 Minsk agreements. He could've attacked Ukraine in 2008. He didn't.[/QUOTE]Nobody threatened Russia, except Putin craziness. I wish Russia will be broke while war they wanted. But Putin money was hidden. Putin already fucked Crimea which was Ukrainian and is trying with Georgia and Romania, when they don t threaten him. World have to get rid of him, this would help Russians for a better life.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2978562]Totally wrong. If income is sufficient to pay down debt, bankruptcy analysis is finished. Bankruptcy is not happening. It is not any more complicated than that.

If income is insufficient to pay down debt, you can look at assets and / or credit lines and / or increasing income. I only commented on how easy it was to increase income.

You used this same its too complicated bullshit when it came to Covid. The end result was $20 trillion spent on a virus twice as deadly the common flu.

Get your dick out of your head and quit jerking off to Russia going bankrupt. It is not happening.[/QUOTE]But see in spite of your homosexual projections no one here has argued that Russia is about to go bankrupt, while you've yet to produce a quote from any ISG member or author of any article posted that has made this claim. So you are just circle jerking your dick in your head arguing against your imaginations, and apparently put a lot of very wasted time into it this morning. I'm glad that I could be such a positive influence. LOL.

P.S. You were made a fool of all during Covid, especially with the much higher hospitalization rates per 100 K pop in blue states. Mitigation efforts such as masks and social distancing all in all proved effective, as is also common sense with any disease that is spread through aerosols and droplets. But I guess Elvis will be going around to all the hospitals telling the doctors and nurses to stop wearing masks because it offends his hyper sensitive, conspiracy theory chasing political sensibilities.

[URL]https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10684792/[/URL]

Covid in the final analysis also was significantly more deadly than the flu.

Early in Covid the differences were drastic.

[URL]https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4677[/URL]

That while differences were still substantial over the flu seasons of 2022 and 23.

[URL]https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2024-05-15/covid-19-remains-deadlier-than-the-flu[/URL]

What a shame for you, to have spent at least half your waking hours for two years jacking off in a hooker forum making a fool of yourself about Covid, when you could have been getting laid or earning money instead.

Putin and Netanhyaou are international law prosecuted. Even Russians made free Auschwitz Birkenau 80 years ago and big thanks to them, but Putin was not invited for birthday, when nobody want to see him, but Zelensky was welcome in Poland. I don t think Netanhyaou was welcome.

From my prior post.

"P.S. You were made a fool of all during Covid, especially with the much higher hospitalization rates per 100 K pop in blue states. ".

Red states not blue.

[URL]https://abcnews.go.com/Health/red-blue-america-glaring-divide-covid-19-death/story?id=83649085[/URL]

[URL]https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38034472/[/URL]

[QUOTE=BloodRed;2978524]You can believe whichever of the 2 main reasons being thrown around for the war.

1. NATO expansion (the real reason for the war).

2. The argument that Putin wants to expand Russia or revive the ex Soviet Union.

Evidence suggests that number 1 was the main reason for the war if you look at the facts logically. If Putin was interested in recreating the former USSR / expansion, he would've not gone through 2 Minsk agreements. He could've attacked Ukraine in 2008. He didn't.[/QUOTE]The freedom and democracy promoted by NATO is more popular than the dark and repressive world that you, Elvis, and Tiny twist yourselves in knots trying to defend and cheer for. The agency of these freedom loving nations, like Sweden, Finland, and many Eastern Euro nations cannot be ignored. They have expanded into NATO.

Armistice by Easter, peace by May the 9th. Political circles in Ukraine are discussing Trump's 100-day plan for Ukraine, quote:

In recent days, the political and diplomatic circles of Ukraine have been actively discussing the schedule allegedly already drawn up by Trump and his team to end the war in 100 days. It is alleged that it was handed over by the Americans to a number of European diplomats. And from them he got to Ukraine. Note that at the moment we do not have confirmation of the authenticity of this "plan". Perhaps this is really a plan drawn up by Trump's team, or perhaps it is a kind of "apocrypha" compiled on the basis of the "Kellogg Plan" made public last year before the US presidential election. There are signs that point to both the first and the second option.

However, given the great public attention to the topic of a peaceful settlement, we decided to publish it.

So, according to the "schedule", Trump plans to hold a telephone conversation with Putin in late January. Early February. In early February, it is planned to discuss the plan with the Ukrainian authorities.

As a result of Washington's communication with Moscow and Kiev, the negotiations can either be paused (if no common ground can be found) or continue (if such points are found).

In the second case, the following further schedule is provided.

Zelensky must repeal the decree that prohibits negotiating with Putin.

During February. The first half of March 2025, it is proposed to hold a meeting between Trump and Zelensky and Putin (a trilateral meeting or two bilateral meetings will be decided separately). It should approve the main parameters of the peace plan, and then continue work on an agreement at the level of special envoys.

While negotiations are underway and hostilities continue, Trump is not blocking the sending of military aid to Ukraine.

From April 20,2025 (Easter, which this year is celebrated on the same day by all Christian denominations), it is proposed to declare a truce along the entire front line. At the same time, all Ukrainian troops must be withdrawn from the Kursk region.

At the end of April 2025, the International Peace Conference should begin its work, which will record an agreement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation to end the war with the mediation of the United States, China, a number of countries in Europe and the Global South.

At the end of April, the exchange of prisoners will begin according to the "all for all" formula.

By May 9, a declaration of the International Peace Conference on the end of the war in Ukraine based on the agreed parameters is envisaged.

After May 9, Ukraine is offered not to extend martial law and mobilization.

At the end of August, presidential elections are held in Ukraine, and at the end of October. Parliamentary and local elections.

The proposed parameters of the agreement to be concluded within the framework of the International Conference:

1. Ukraine will not be a member of NATO and declares neutrality. The decision to ban the admission of Ukraine to the Alliance must be approved at the NATO summit.

2. Ukraine will become a member of the EU by 2030. The EU is committed to the post-war reconstruction of the country.

3. Ukraine is not reducing the size of the army. The United States pledges to continue supporting the modernization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

4. Ukraine refuses military and diplomatic attempts to return the occupied territories. But it does not officially recognize the sovereignty of the Russian Federation over them.

5. Some of the sanctions against the Russian Federation will be lifted immediately after the conclusion of a peace agreement. Part. For three years, depending on Russia's compliance with the parameters of the agreement. All restrictions on the import of Russian energy resources to the EU will be lifted. But he, for a certain time, will be subject to a special duty by the Europeans, the funds from which will be used to restore Ukraine.

6. Parties advocating for the protection of the Russian language and for peaceful coexistence with Russia should be allowed to participate in the elections in Ukraine. All actions against the Ukraine Orthodox Church and the Russian language must be stopped at the state level.

7. The paragraph on the European peacekeeping contingent after the end of hostilities was singled out as particularly problematic. On the one hand, Kiev demands this as a security guarantee. On the other hand, they are categorically opposed by the Russian Federation. Separate consultations between all parties should be held on this item.

As for our assessment of the further development of events, we gave it in the article of January 23, and this assessment remains unchanged so far.

In short, the key point will be which strategy Trump chooses.

Namely, whether he will now offer Putin any "peace plans" and negotiate with him, or will he take the position promoted by the "party of war" in the West and the Ukrainian authorities: not to offer anything to the Kremlin at all, not to talk about any compromises with it, but to increase pressure on the Russian Federation economically (through sanctions and lower oil prices) and military (through increased arms supplies to Ukraine). And then wait until Putin himself asks for peace and accepts the dictated conditions.

If Trump follows this path, then by Easter and by May 9, we may not expect the end of the war, but its sharp escalation. With the prospect of drawing NATO countries directly into the military conflict.

If Trump decides to put forward peace proposals now, then the key question is whether he will be able to agree on them with Putin. Here, of course, everything will depend on the proposed conditions, but the chances that it will be possible to come to an agreement on the end of the war in the near future in this case are far from zero.

Which path Trump will take will become clear in the coming weeks, depending on whether he has direct and public contact with Putin, and if so, what the outcome of the conversation will be.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2978690]The freedom and democracy promoted by NATO is more popular than the dark and repressive world that you, Elvis, and Tiny twist yourselves in knots trying to defend and cheer for. The agency of these freedom loving nations, like Sweden, Finland, and many Eastern Euro nations cannot be ignored. They have expanded into NATO.[/QUOTE]The world has seen the freedom and democracy promoted and implemented by NATO in:

Iraq.

Afghanistan.

Somalia.

Yemen.

Syria.

Serbia.

Libya.

Now we have Ukraine wrecked.

Thanks, but no thanks.

[QUOTE=Questner;2978717]Armistice by Easter, peace by May the 9th. Political circles in Ukraine are discussing Trump's 100-day plan for Ukraine, quote:

As a result of Washington's communication with Moscow and Kiev, the negotiations can either be paused (if no common ground can be found) or continue (if such points are found).

In the second case, the following further schedule is provided.

Zelensky must repeal the decree that prohibits negotiating with Putin.

During February. The first half of March 2025, it is proposed to hold a meeting between Trump and Zelensky and Putin (a trilateral meeting or two bilateral meetings will be decided separately). It should approve the main parameters of the peace plan, and then continue work on an agreement at the level of special envoys.

While negotiations are underway and hostilities continue, Trump is not blocking the sending of military aid to Ukraine.

From April 20,2025 (Easter, which this year is celebrated on the same day by all Christian denominations), it is proposed to declare a truce along the entire front line. At the same time, all Ukrainian troops must be withdrawn from the Kursk region.

At the end of April 2025, the International Peace Conference should begin its work, which will record an agreement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation to end the war with the mediation of the United States, China, a number of countries in Europe and the Global South.

At the end of April, the exchange of prisoners will begin according to the "all for all" formula.

By May 9, a declaration of the International Peace Conference on the end of the war in Ukraine based on the agreed parameters is envisaged.

After May 9, Ukraine is offered not to extend martial law and mobilization.

At the end of August, presidential elections are held in Ukraine, and at the end of October. Parliamentary and local elections.

The proposed parameters of the agreement to be concluded within the framework of the International Conference:

1. Ukraine will not be a member of NATO and declares neutrality. The decision to ban the admission of Ukraine to the Alliance must be approved at the NATO summit.

2. Ukraine will become a member of the EU by 2030. The EU is committed to the post-war reconstruction of the country.

3. Ukraine is not reducing the size of the army. The United States pledges to continue supporting the modernization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

4. Ukraine refuses military and diplomatic attempts to return the occupied territories. But it does not officially recognize the sovereignty of the Russian Federation over them.

5. Some of the sanctions against the Russian Federation will be lifted immediately after the conclusion of a peace agreement. Part. For three years, depending on Russia's compliance with the parameters of the agreement. All restrictions on the import of Russian energy resources to the EU will be lifted. But he, for a certain time, will be subject to a special duty by the Europeans, the funds from which will be used to restore Ukraine.

6. Parties advocating for the protection of the Russian language and for peaceful coexistence with Russia should be allowed to participate in the elections in Ukraine. All actions against the Ukraine Orthodox Church and the Russian language must be stopped at the state level.

7. The paragraph on the European peacekeeping contingent after the end of hostilities was singled out as particularly problematic. On the one hand, Kiev demands this as a security guarantee. On the other hand, they are categorically opposed by the Russian Federation. Separate consultations between all parties should be held on this item.
.[/QUOTE]This is interesting and I think there is common ground here that may be acceptable to Russia, although not completely.

Putin has already said that the basic requirement to end the war with Ukraine are:

1. Recognition that Crimea + the 4 new territories (entirely) are Russian.

2. Neutrality for Ukraine and never joining NATO.

If those 2 conditions are accepted, there can be a pathway to peace. Point 2 is addressed in what you posted, OK. But what about point 1 in full, that is not clear. Let's see. I think if what you posted is accurate, the Russians will look very closely at it. Overall, that plan looks a bit realistic at least.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2978637]no one here has argued that Russia is about to go bankrupt[/QUOTE]LOL. You just presented a paper claiming double digit GDP contraction. I guess you do not know what that means.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2978637]P.S. You were made a fool of all during Covid, especially with the much higher hospitalization rates per 100 K pop in blue states.[/QUOTE]Blue or red in what election? Why not use counties or cities? How did you account for obesity, smoking, diabetes, age ETC? How did you account for interstate transfer of patients? Oh, you did not. You just made that up.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2978637]Mitigation efforts such as masks and social distancing all in all proved effective.[/QUOTE]Yeah, they were so effective that there were more cases in 2021 than 2020.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2978637]But I guess Elvis will be going around to all the hospitals telling the doctors and nurses to stop wearing masks because it offends his hyper sensitive, conspiracy theory chasing political sensibilities.[/QUOTE]Yeah, this was such a liberal Democratic disease with all the virtue signaling. You wear your mask, social distance, and then come home, have dinner, eat inches away from each other, and cough among your family. Great strategy. No wonder 75% of the cases of Covid were caught at home.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2978637]Early in Covid the differences were drastic.[/QUOTE]Jesus, do you ever learn anything? [URL]https://stanfordreview.org/stanfords-censorship-an-interview-with-dr-jay-bhattacharya/[/URL].

The reason was that, at the time, there was limited testing and they were identifying a lot of people with COVID who were very sick. But we weren't testing broadly in the entire population; we were just testing people who showed up in the hospital, for instance. The disease had been spreading. But the death rate implied by our study was something like 0. 2 percent, whereas the World Health Organization was telling people that the death rate was 3. 5 percent.

And that study was done in April 2020.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2978637]What a shame for you, to have spent at least half your waking hours for two years jacking off in a hooker forum making a fool of yourself about Covid, when you could have been getting laid or earning money instead.[/QUOTE]Yeah, well unlike you, I did not waste 2 years of my life in my basement scared shitless over a cold virus, so I have a little more time to waste.

[QUOTE=BloodRed;2978855]This is interesting and I think there is common ground here that may be acceptable to Russia, although not completely.

Putin has already said that the basic requirement to end the war with Ukraine are:

1. Recognition that Crimea + the 4 new territories (entirely) are Russian.

2. Neutrality for Ukraine and never joining NATO.

If those 2 conditions are accepted, there can be a pathway to peace. Point 2 is addressed in what you posted, OK. But what about point 1 in full, that is not clear. Let's see. I think if what you posted is accurate, the Russians will look very closely at it. Overall, that plan looks a bit realistic at least.[/QUOTE]But If Ukraine agrees to these terms especially the one about never joining Nato and being neutral, why did they go to war in the first place?

I mean they could have negotiated with Putin during February 2022 when Russia started invading Ukraine and most likely Putin would have stopped the war.

I think these terms will be a total loss for Ukraine, especially that half the country is destroyed, and they lost about 20% of Ukraine or more.

[QUOTE=BloodRed;2978855]This is interesting and I think there is common ground here that may be acceptable to Russia, although not completely.

Putin has already said that the basic requirement to end the war with Ukraine are:

1. Recognition that Crimea + the 4 new territories (entirely) are Russian.

2. Neutrality for Ukraine and never joining NATO.

If those 2 conditions are accepted, there can be a pathway to peace. Point 2 is addressed in what you posted, OK. But what about point 1 in full, that is not clear. Let's see. I think if what you posted is accurate, the Russians will look very closely at it. Overall, that plan looks a bit realistic at least.[/QUOTE]I still think that Russia will want more than the four regions they declared, I think they will cross the Dniper river and continue invading kherson all the way to Odessa as Odessa is the crown jewel for them. I think they may have plans to divide Ukraine and plus they are also seizing more land in Kharkov which is not in the declared four regions and they are also close to Dnipropetrovsk. I lived in Odessa for some time and so sad to see this beautiful city and country be destroyed like this.

[QUOTE=BloodRed;2977920]The one thing I will agree with you is that Russians and Ukrainians are indeed Brothers and it's such a tragedy that this NATO expansion bullshit pushed them to fight each other. I hope there will be a reconciliation after the war is over when the people of Ukraine will realize that the collective west took them down the primrose path and really doesn't give 2 shits about them. That in my opinion is inevitable.[/QUOTE]So your so-called soldiers who are robbing, raping and killing Ukrainian civilians are robbing, raping and killing their own family?

Well, sounds like what Russians have been doing like forever.

Nothing new here.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2978476]I'm hardly surprised that you fail to mention any concerns about the reliability of these polls, in a country at war where dissent is treated very harshly. If you could just come around and admit that Alexi Navalny died of natural causes, you'd get the t-shirt. Wink.[/QUOTE]Pollster: Is Vladimir Putin a great leader or the greatest leader ever?

Russian citizen: Hmm.

Pollster: Allow me to repeat: Is Vladimir Putin, the Supreme Commander of the Russian Armed Forces a great leader or the greatest ever?

Russian citizen: I don't know, I'm just, you know- Undecided.

Pollster: Thank you, next question -- what's your take on the Criminal Code Article 20.3. 3: Discrediting of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation?

Russian citizen: Ahh- greatest?

Pollster: Thank you for your cooperation.