Hackers publish alleged Sberbank memo
[URL]https://meduza.io/en/feature/2026/08/25/hackers-published-a-sberbank-memo-war-gaming-eight-endings-to-the-war-in-ukraine-one-source-in-russia-s-financial-market-thinks-a-chatbot-wrote-it[/URL]
No way to conclusively establish its authenticity, but the eight scenarios it outlines certainly make for some interesting discussion points.
FWIW, the Black Mirror hacking group has been around for a while and has leaked documents before (Rostec files in 2025, etc).
ChatGPT on the current Witkoff / Kushner visit
She's putting the probability this will result in a breakthrough or the restart of sustained negotiations at 65%. That's probably high but who knows. The third-party-controlled demilitarized free-trade zone in the part of Donetsk still controlled by Ukraine may be a sticking point.
I think the proposal Witkoff and Kushner are carrying is probably an updated version of the framework that the USA, Ukraine and Europeans were quietly working on in August, rather than an entirely new plan. Zelensky said on August 25 that a one-page set of ideas had already been drafted with USA And European officials, including a ceasefire and an American idea for a third-party-administered free economic zone in the Donbas. 65532;.
My best estimate of what they will propose is:
1. An immediate or very rapid ceasefire, essentially freezing the military line close to where it is when the agreement takes effect. I would put about a 75% probability on this being the centerpiece. Ukraine and its European partners have publicly advocated an immediate ceasefire using the current line of contact as the starting point.
2. A special arrangement for the portion of Donetsk that Ukraine still controls, rather than simply transferring it outright to Russia. This is where I think the August "free economic zone" idea becomes important. My guess is something like: Ukrainian forces withdraw from some disputed area; Russian forces do not immediately enter it; it becomes demilitarized or specially administered; economic activity resumes under some international / USA -backed mechanism. I would give roughly a 5565% probability that something resembling this is in today's proposal. Zelensky has explicitly confirmed that Washington proposed a Donbas free-economic-zone concept administered by a third party.
3. Russia keeps de facto control of most territory it currently occupies, without Ukraine being required to legally recognize Russian sovereignty over it. That distinction could be crucial. The earlier Trump framework contemplated USA De facto recognition of Russian control over Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk and freezing Kherson and Zaporizhzhia along the front. Ukraine and Europe subsequently pushed back strongly against legal recognition of territorial conquest.
4. Ukraine effectively gives up NATO membership for the foreseeable future, probably without being required to surrender its EU path. NATO itself has acknowledged that Ukrainian membership is not presently on the table, while the earlier USA Proposal went considerably further and called for a constitutional commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO. My guess is that today's version uses softer languagesomething like NATO membership being indefinitely deferredbecause that is easier for Kyiv to swallow.
5. Strong Western security guarantees for Ukraine in exchange for the territorial / NATO concessions. This could be the principal inducement to Zelensky. The USA And European states have already developed plans for postwar guarantees, potentially including an Article-5-like response if Russia attacks again and a multinational force operating inside Ukraine after hostilities stop.
6. Phased sanctions relief for Russia, probably tied to implementation rather than all sanctions disappearing on day one. That has been part of previous Trump proposals. I would expect Moscow to seek broader reliefincluding access to frozen assets and normalization of economic relationswhile Washington may offer enough initially to give Putin an economic reason to accept the deal.
7. A large humanitarian packagePOW exchanges, return of civilian detainees and Ukrainian children, perhaps restoration of Black Sea commercial arrangements. Those are relatively easy items on which both sides can claim progress and appeared prominently in the earlier USA Framework.
8. A Putin-Zelensky-Trump summit if Moscow and Kyiv accept the basic architecture. CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly raised exactly such a three-way summit during his Moscow trip last month.
The single most important question, in my view, is what the plan says about the Ukrainian-held portion of Donetsk. Putin wants the entirety of Donbas and believes Russia's battlefield position is improving; just this week he again emphasized Russian military advances while saying he was open to substantive discussions with Trump's representatives.
I therefore suspect Witkoff and Kushner are trying to construct a compromise that permits Putin to say that Ukraine has relinquished its claim to recover Donbas militarily without forcing Zelensky to formally hand the remaining Ukrainian-held cities to Russia. A demilitarized / free-economic-zone arrangement is almost tailor-made for that purpose.
My rough probability distribution for the trip would be 15% chance of a genuine breakthrough, 50% chance they narrow the differences enough to restart sustained negotiations, and 35% that little changes. The fact that they are going Moscow first and Kyiv second is significant: I expect them to present Putin with a USA Framework today, determine precisely what he would accept, and then take a modified version of it to Zelensky tomorrow. Trump has publicly described what they are carrying as a "concrete proposal," but neither the White House nor the parties have disclosed its terms.
If I had to make one fairly specific prediction, it would be: ceasefire near the present line + Ukrainian withdrawal from at least part of its remaining Donetsk positions into a demilitarized / free-economic-zone arrangement + no NATO membership + substantial USA / European security guarantees + phased Russian sanctions relief. That strikes me as the package most consistent with everything that has leaked over the past several months.
An alternative to a free trade zone
[QUOTE=Questner;3082787]At Tiny12 below:
No, we don't need exotic free-trade zones. Europeans were not invited to Moscow and we don't need them. Since the regime in Kiev won't sign anything and since whatever plan or agreement to be entertained will be a useless piece of paper, only our two friends can help us, our Army and Navy.[/QUOTE]The civilian population of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk is less than 100,000. How about if the Europeans buy them all villas in the south of France, move them there, and pay them generous allowances for the rest of their lives? If they did everyone would come out ahead. According to Gemini Pro, deaths due to the conflict currently run 140,000 per year and global economic costs run about $1 trillion per year.
Stalemate and attrition for the foreseeable future
The front lines are effectively in a stalemated state, as both sides have been able to use drones to degrade logistics and prevent (most) maneuvers. The ubiquity and range of drones makes massing medium-to-large troop gatherings problematic, as they're targeted promptly and disrupted. There may occasionally be some adjustments to front-line positions, but neither side seems currently able to conduct any breakthrough operations. However, since Russia's goal is to advance, while Ukraine's is to hold their defensive positions, the front line situation is more in line with Ukrainian goals (IMO).
With the front line being stalemated, the primary effort from each side is to inflict losses on the other by means of attrition aimed at infrastructure and deep-rear targets. At this point, neither side has been able to gain a decisive advantage. Russia thinks it can grind Ukraine down, even with Western support. IMO, the Kremlin believes (rightly or wrongly) that Russia can tolerate more pain and hardship than the other side. From many reports I've seen, they will likely focus on energy targets during this upcoming winter. Ukraine, OTOH, is counting on refinery and oil storage strikes to create problems for both Russia's economy and military operations. Ukraine believes (rightly or wrongly) that they can create real problems for Russia this way.
While Western support has had its ups and downs, every indication is that it's likely to continue to the level that at least keeps Ukraine functioning. While the West appears unwilling to give Ukraine the kinds and amounts of weapons that might lead to a possible victory, they're also unwilling to allow Ukraine to fail. On the Russian side, I think the same argument can be made with respect to the aid from China and North Korea.
But there are some wild cards to keep an eye on. If Ukraine can produce a better interceptor system, capable of dealing with jet-powered drones and cruise-type missiles, then that could help them get through the winter with much less damage. And, if they're able to produce home-grown ballistic missiles with sufficient range, that puts Russian infrastructure at much greater risk. On the Russian side, the possibility of a wider mobilization effort, after the upcoming elections, is something to watch.
Bottom line for me is that any so-called "peace talks" are just theater. That's because neither side has changed their fundamental positions and each side thinks they're in a decent position. Only time will tell, but I'm expecting this winter to be mostly more of the same. What I'll be watching is the wild cards I mentioned above, or maybe some other development that might give one side more of an advantage. Whichever side comes through the winter better will be in a stronger position come next spring.
P.S. Of course, there is always the possibility of a black- or gray-swan event, like Putin's death or ouster, but that's an outlier case.
P.P.S. Nobody in Russia or Ukraine really gives a shit about historical or other arguments. When two people are in the middle of a fist-fight, neither side cares why it started. The main goal is to win, or at the very least not to lose. Whoever wins will most likely write the postscript.
