General Reports

I just received this from a good friend of mine who is in a position to know...


...Just spoke with a friend who is very well tuned into the governmental scene here in Thailand. His belief (and that of other prominent folks) is that the current govt. will try to do a takeover ..... probably soon, and most surely by the end of the year. The reason is that the current govt. has stolen so much that they HAVE to stay in power or suffer serious consequences. So they will effect a takeover.

According to the friend several political analysts have predicted a Khmer Rouge type govt. here by the end of the year. I asked what effect it would have on foreigners and he said it would not be a healthy environment to be living in. In addition he told me that an acquaintance in the police dept asked "which side he was on"? He responded "The kings"!

Now isn't that just great.

He said that one of the precursors to watch for is whether or not the planned election coming up in the near future actually takes place. He doesn't think it will. Or if it does it will likely be stolen.

p.s. The situation in the south is likely to "go south" soon as well. Many Thais trained in indonesia, will be arriving back in Thailand soon. If you have to ask what they've been trained in / for, delete the message and go to the disney channel. I hope my friend is wrong, but he seldom is.

... and further more.

Let me add: The thinking is that opposition candidates will be assassinated, which will start a back and forth tit for tat. This will end in a civil war. (God let him be wrong)

[QUOTE=Retired Army]I just received this from a good friend of mine who is in a position to know...


...Just spoke with a friend who is very well tuned into the governmental scene here in Thailand. His belief (and that of other prominent folks) is that the current govt. will try to do a takeover ..... probably soon, and most surely by the end of the year. The reason is that the current govt. has stolen so much that they HAVE to stay in power or suffer serious consequences. So they will effect a takeover.

According to the friend several political analysts have predicted a Khmer Rouge type govt. here by the end of the year. I asked what effect it would have on foreigners and he said it would not be a healthy environment to be living in. In addition he told me that an acquaintance in the police dept asked "which side he was on"? He responded "The kings"!

Now isn't that just great.

He said that one of the precursors to watch for is whether or not the planned election coming up in the near future actually takes place. He doesn't think it will. Or if it does it will likely be stolen.

p.s. The situation in the south is likely to "go south" soon as well. Many Thais trained in indonesia, will be arriving back in Thailand soon. If you have to ask what they've been trained in / for, delete the message and go to the disney channel. I hope my friend is wrong, but he seldom is.

... and further more.

Let me add: The thinking is that opposition candidates will be assassinated, which will start a back and forth tit for tat. This will end in a civil war. (God let him be wrong)[/QUOTE]

Hate to disagree, what you have to look at is the Kings health. If the king dies then there is a good chance a take over could happen. The King is all powerful in LOS and all will follow his orders.

Second the Thai People are way to smart, no way a Khmer Rouge type of government will ever take over.

Shamas O'D

R Army,

C'mon, your friend is presenting you with something that's not only too bleak but againts the best interest of those who want to stay in power. Of course the govt. is stealing money but to create a state that is too extreme would not work in Thailand for many reasons but mostly there would be too much economic and political pressure from the outside to not create a totalitarian state.

You need to know that Thailand is doing well now and it has a great economic future provided the govt. keeps an open mind to outside investment and being close to getting a trade deal with the US would benefit Thailand in a big way that going extreme would not be a smart move.

Also, as somone already said it in here, the King would not allow a government going to an extreme power. And don't forget Thai people, although they follow tradition, they are quiet progressive and savy politically and socially...

A more realistic picture would be that the PM would do what he can to stay in power to continue to make tons of $$ but keep the power in check as it would benefit him and his buddies a lot more than just taking complete control of everything. What he needs to learn to do is to be a little more subtle on how to steal money and benefit from his other businesses tied to his power reach...

juices

I am just passing this along for general discussion. I didn't say I agreed or disagreed. Anything is possible in the LOS. The one thing I will agree on is that the King is the "wild card."

I don't see the danger coming from the actual government. Th.s support in the upper Thai society is not strong any more, he pissed too many rich families off.

The real danger is upcoming when the actual k.i*n.g is not on the thrown any more. Unfortunately he had an accident a few days ago, and seriously suffers from a fracture of his pelvis right now. In case of negative developments - everybody knows that his sucessor on the thrown is well connected in the army, and has some different ideas about democracy than his father.

Then the hour of truth for the Thai democracy might come.


Giotto

I think both Giotto and Juice have good points here. The one thing to remember is that the son is not the father in any way shape of form. Giotto is right about his connections and his politics. He also doesn't like Farang at all. Many think he won't take over because he is not liked by the people. But, with the military and his mother behind him, not to mention the birth last year of his son and successor, there's no doubt that he will be the next man at the top.

As for Thaksin...Although he's more or less back in charge, he is on very shakey ground. He doesn't quite enjoy the support of the army that some think he does. There are some very influential commanders in the military who are against him. Giotto is also correct that the Thai establishment are against him and they have a lot of money and power to stand in his way.

A Khmer Rouge of any type is impossible here. Thailand isn't post-Vietnam War Cambodia, poor and devastated by Nixon's secret war. This is a prosperous and comparatively developed country that can ill-afford the absolutism and extremism of it's past.

But, remember we're all armchair analysts here and Farang at that. Nobody really knows what will happen, not even the Thais. This country is always full of surprises.

OTH,

You make a good point of two different generations of likes/dislikes and experiences. The son has been to some degree sheltered from the "real" world and his father has always been viewed as an adventurer and progressive that travelled the world and was very interested in the arts (musician, painter, photographer, etc) which expanded his world and life views and experiences. The son can be viewed as a spoiled brat with little real life experience.

However, Thailand being an important player in the Asia market cannot afford politically or economically an extreme government based on biases. The fact that the son does not like Farangs might have little consequence in how the country is run because in the end it's about survival and prosperity not about liking someone. The US does not like many countries (i.e. China) but it has to do business with to survive and prosper.

But, I could be 100% wrong. Thailand has matured over the past 10 years to become a regional player and they have too much to lose from going to an extreme...

juices

[QUOTE=Traveler1234]If one reads through history, Thailand is the only country never occupied during any major war. It is one of the few with bloodless coups, always with the 'sanction/approval' of the royal family.

Thai people have tremendous amount of tolerance, witness the current Thaksin regime. However certain things the people will never tolerate...that includes a 'regime'.

Anyone that thinks any type of Khmer Rouge regime will be established doesn't even qualify as an armchair analyst!

IMHO[/QUOTE]

Not exactly.
Between the 16th and 18th century, parts of Thailand were occupied a total of 19 times by the Burmese. Thailand avoided occupation in the 19th century because it ceded large chunks of territory to both the French and British who agreed to to leave the remainder as a buffer zone between French interests in Indo-China and British interests in Burma and Malaysia. During WW II, The Thais lost a short war with the Japanese culminating in a battle in Chumphon on Dec. 8, 1941. Thereafter, Prime Minister, Field-Marshal Phibun under pressure became an ally of the Japanese and even declared war on Britain and the US, although this wasn't taken seriously by either. Out of appreciation, the Japanese returned large parts of occupied territory in Burma and Malaysia that had once been Thailand's. There were over 150,000 Japanese troops stationed in Thailand, most of whom were involved in the construction of the Death Railway. So, Thailand was indeed occupied in war. It was only after the war started to turn against the Japanese, that Phibun was forced from power in 1944.

In the recent past, so-called bloodless coups have later resulted in numerous deaths during popular uprisings such as the one in 1972.

The Thais are VERY tolerant. But, at some point even they snap. When this happens, anything can happen and usually does. Violence is certainly a real possibility when Thais have had enough.

[QUOTE=Old Thai Hand]Not exactly.
The Thais are VERY tolerant. But, at some point even they snap. When this happens, anything can happen and usually does. Violence is certainly a real possibility when Thais have had enough.[/QUOTE]

So much for my armchair analysis :)

[QUOTE=Retired Army]It is, stay home![/QUOTE]Nah I will probably buy a condo or a home in Pattya and put the property in my good friends name, not a bar girl she is a university grad who works at the airport. This book just points out some things that I noticed myself about Thailand and its natives. On that note Thailand is no scarier then I would say the Westside of Chicago the murder capital of the US and my childhood home. Take care R.A.

[QUOTE=Dinghy]BW - only if you let the little head do the thinking

<He's been and he's no dummy>

<batsman out>[/QUOTE]I just left had no problems at all besides Thai taxi driver/friend begging for money and poor performances of girls in bed. Take care

[QUOTE=Phantomtiger2]Scary in what sense? If you are scared of getting more bonks in one week in Thailand than you will in your entire life at home and perhaps wearing out that heart and didi then you should indeed stay at home. Otherwise, forget what all those books and Christian advocates say and get over there and see for yourself. In case you havent noticed, we mongers on this forum are big supporters of LOS.

We are only scared of not having enough time to do it all while we are over there.

PT[/QUOTE]I did not find Bangkok too much to my liking. But one night in Pattaya was all it took and I am already looking for property to buy. As I stated earlier this book did make some good points and offered some good advice but it wont change my mind about the LOS. I will though handle the people a lot different because this book pointed out some of their behavior I couldn’t quite understand. Thanks take care.

[QUOTE=Eric Thai Addict]Private Dancer is nice to read, but it also give you the guidance what you must avoid: fall in love. Whatever bargirls tell you, never believe half a word of it! Keep it just as a business transaction or be lucky, search on chat rooms and find a decent university girl as I did and you don't have all that BG trouble.[/QUOTE]Guidance?

Its my new LOS Mongering bible. Thanks take care.

[QUOTE=Boy Wonder]Nah I will probably buy a condo or a home in Pattya and put the property in my good friends name, not a bar girl she is a university grad who works at the airport..[/QUOTE]
Boy Wonder,

why not buy that condo in your own name or a house on a company's name ?
Don't forget, people may change and even your "good friend" might turn into a not so good friend one day. Just be careful !

[QUOTE=JuiceSpike]R Army,

C'mon, your friend is presenting you with something that's not only too bleak but againts the best interest of those who want to stay in power. Of course the govt. is stealing money but to create a state that is too extreme would not work in Thailand for many reasons but mostly there would be too much economic and political pressure from the outside to not create a totalitarian state.

You need to know that Thailand is doing well now and it has a great economic future provided the govt. keeps an open mind to outside investment and being close to getting a trade deal with the US would benefit Thailand in a big way that going extreme would not be a smart move.

Also, as somone already said it in here, the King would not allow a government going to an extreme power. And don't forget Thai people, although they follow tradition, they are quiet progressive and savy politically and socially...

A more realistic picture would be that the PM would do what he can to stay in power to continue to make tons of $$ but keep the power in check as it would benefit him and his buddies a lot more than just taking complete control of everything. What he needs to learn to do is to be a little more subtle on how to steal money and benefit from his other businesses tied to his power reach...

juices[/QUOTE]

The source of this information is actually the Thai Foreign Mininstry, by way of one of our Western embassies.