Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[QUOTE=Jmsuttr;2685974]...........I completely agree that there's no substitute for experience on the battlefield, and I'm sure every military command in the world, US included, is examining every scrap of information coming out of Ukraine under a high-powered microscope. One clear takeaway is that relatively inexpensive systems, like drones and shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons (Javelin, NLAW, etc.), have dramatically impacted battlefield dynamics.[/QUOTE]The Ukraine military and some NATO members have been training together for several years. The Ukrainians were getting prepared for what now seems like Putin's inevitable aggression.

An interesting quote from am April 13 Wall Street Journal article encapsulates some of the tactical changes: "Soldiers, plus military brass and overseers in parliament, have been transformed from a rigid Soviet-style force into a modern army that thinks on the move." Apparently, NATO was also able to learn from the Ukrainians original Soviet-style thinking.

In addition to changing battlefield dynamics, the Ukrainians are proving out the axiom that the defense has the advantage. Tanks as somewhat large and relatively slow targets might have limited effectiveness against an organized military with modern weaponry.

My fear is that as the longer this drags out Putin will do something crazy out of frustration.

[QUOTE=Jojosun;2685513]Old age wasn't a handicap then, but old age & apparent senility encourages even Old Allies to take the piss out of Politics by Joe President, LOL.

[URL]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WOhcCPqc4pk[/URL][/QUOTE]Now he's shaking hands with Thin Air!!

[URL]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_59agcnLAj4[/URL]

[URL]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zB0W91E3XOU[/URL]

President Joe Biden has made a "howler" of a gaffe during his State of the Union speech – mistaking Ukrainians for "Iranians".

First of all I wanted to give my support to the people of Ukraine and especially the men and women serving in the military and fighting the Russian war machine of Putin. I hope that the Ukrainians will prevail as I have seen them on the internet really giving the Russians a good ass pounding. I hope they regain their independence again and kick the Russians out for good. I also lament I never got to visit Ukraine and meet some of the lovely sex workers over there in the past, guess now I never will. Life is cruel and unfair and that bastard Putin is to blame, he is a real POS.

[QUOTE=Jojosun;2686178]Now he's shaking hands with Thin Air!!

[URL]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_59agcnLAj4[/URL]

[URL]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zB0W91E3XOU[/URL]

President Joe Biden has made a "howler" of a gaffe during his State of the Union speech mistaking Ukrainians for "Iranians".[/QUOTE]Having a senile POTUS, and a cackling buffoon for a VP has its advantageous: they'll make the ideal dispensable fall guys when the shit hits the fan.

[QUOTE=HulaHoops;2677236]I apologise, we haven't taken any pictures. It just hasn't been our main focus since we've been here. I will make an effort on Wednesday to take a picture close to the motherland monument.

In regards to the statement: "I've never been in a place that's racist to white people before."

I am more relaxed and logical now. Basically because I know I will be leaving Kyiv soon and I admit the statement above was an over emotional one.

I realize now that it's not fair whatsoever to judge people based on how they behave during wartime. I understand perfectly now that during wartime, the native civilians are given priority.

At the time I made the statement, I was extremely stressed and not sleeping well whatsoever. As I have said before we made the wrong decision to come here.

That particular statement came from some situations my group and I experienced.

1. One situation was when we went to purchase some items / seek assistance and we were ignored / brushed aside, while Ukrainians were given preferential treatment...[/QUOTE]We left Ukraine sometime ago, I'm back home in Berlin. Far away from the war and Russia's madness.

[QUOTE=SeaBeeJoe;2686410]First of all I wanted to give my support to the people of Ukraine and especially the men and women serving in the military and fighting the Russian war machine of Putin. I hope that the Ukrainians will prevail as I have seen them on the internet really giving the Russians a good ass pounding. I hope they regain their independence again and kick the Russians out for good. I also lament I never got to visit Ukraine and meet some of the lovely sex workers over there in the past, guess now I never will. Life is cruel and unfair and that bastard Putin is to blame, he is a real POS.[/QUOTE]Looking at the current state of affairs, it very much looks like Putin won't achieve his original goal of taking over Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to hold more Ukrainian territory than previously or will be forced to retreat to the pre-Feb 24th borders (or further).

But at some point, hopefully not too long in the future, there will be an end to active hostilities at least in the western areas and likely also in Kyiv and surrounding areas. When that happens, it's my guess there will be some kind of Marshall Plan put in place. If that's the case, money will come flooding in to the areas where Western govt reps and NGOs are based. Many refugees will be returning and a lot of them will voluntarily relocate to those areas. For one reason, their prior homes may no longer be habitable or in safe areas. For another, the money flooding in should create jobs and other opportunities as reconstruction efforts take off.

I'm thinking those hubs of reconstruction activity will attract sex workers as the rest of the country will be too poor (or destroyed) to support them. And it's possible that many of the sex workers will be women who previously worked in non sex-related jobs. Some of them may fall victim to trafficking / coercion, but many will see it as an opportunity to make more money than they otherwise could and thereby rebuild their lives and help their families. While a mongering board probably isn't the best place to moralize, anyone who takes advantage of a woman who isn't free to choose is a reprehensible piece of shit.

And, moving beyond Ukrainian borders, there will be some women who will settle in the country to which they fled, and decide that's the place they want to try to earn a living. Depending on the country and the individual situation, sex work might be their chosen option. It'll be interesting to see where everyone ends up after the dust settles, especially if Ukraine is accepted into the EU (Schengen status?) and residency / citizenship requirements are relaxed for refugees.

[QUOTE=Golfinho;2686495]Having a senile POTUS, and a cackling buffoon for a VP has its advantageous: they'll make the ideal dispensable fall guys when the shit hits the fan.[/QUOTE]Touche! Seems like justice is about to catch up with him, as more and more Jan 5 insurgents are directly implicating him in the insurrection. Don't know about the ex-VP, though, since unlike his former boss, he still possessed enough brain matter to avoid breaking the law.

But yeah, the Senile Orange is going down hard. Thank you for bringing it up to our attention.

[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2686167]My fear is that as the longer this drags out Putin will do something crazy out of frustration.[/QUOTE]I certainly share your concern, but any significant escalation, especially of the crazy variety, will demand an adequate justification, even if it's a fake one. He's already played most of the available conventional warfare cards with Ukraine. What's left? Chemical weapons, tactical nukes, or perhaps drastically ramping up long-distance bombs and missiles? But, even though he could order it on a whim, using any WMD option without a MAJOR (real or pretextual) provocation would almost certainly result in loss of external support (Germany, Hungary, India, and poss China) and internal Russian support from all but his most fervent followers. And he's already pushing most of his conventional chips to the middle of the table. If he starts raining even more missiles on Ukrainian cities, it's my guess Zelensky will start receiving more and more anti-missile systems. If Russian cruise missiles and planes are increasingly intercepted and shot down, Putin will lose even more face than he has already.

Putin's other option is to try to goad a NATO country into crossing one of his imaginary "red lines," but nobody's taking the bait. He can huff and puff all he wants, but if he launches any kind of attack against Poland, the Baltics, the Nordics, etc. , he'll once again be branded the aggressor. And, since his conventional forces have shown themselves to be a joke, NATO could launch a retaliatory strike along conventional lines without crossing any nuke tripwires. Not that policymakers read ISG (or maybe they do?) But I would suggest something like sinking every single Russian naval vessel. Or maybe just every vessel in the Eurasian (Mediterranean, Black Sea, etc.) area. Something proportional, or just above that level, that bloodies his nose or breaks his kneecaps.

Getting back to the pretext problem, with every satellite and SIGINT resource trained on Russia, it's unlikely he can pull off a fake justification without being spotted and exposed. Even his most recent attempt (Ukrainian helo or shelling attack on Russian village) was quickly revealed as a fraud, since no UA forces were within range and a phone call intercept caught a Russian soldier talking about how the attack was being faked by their own forces. The Kremlin can make any claims they want, like they do with Bucha. But nobody believes them and that's likely to be the case if they tried to fake a justification big enough to support a major escalation.

Of course, I don't have a crystal ball, and war is uncertain, but I wanted to point out some potential obstacles Putin would need to overcome.

[QUOTE=Jmsuttr;2686649]I certainly share your concern, but any significant escalation, especially of the crazy variety, will demand an adequate justification, even if it's a fake one. He's already played most of the available conventional warfare cards with Ukraine. What's left? Chemical weapons, tactical nukes, or perhaps drastically ramping up long-distance bombs and missiles? But, even though he could order it on a whim, using any WMD option without a MAJOR (real or pretextual) provocation would almost certainly result in loss of external support (Germany, Hungary, India, and poss China) and internal Russian support from all but his most fervent followers. And he's already pushing most of his conventional chips to the middle of the table. If he starts raining even more missiles on Ukrainian cities, it's my guess Zelensky will start receiving more and more anti-missile systems. If Russian cruise missiles and planes are increasingly intercepted and shot down, Putin will lose even more face than he has already..[/QUOTE]My concern, as I suspect is yours and others, is that Putin is irrational and not in the right mind. If that's the case, hopefully there are rational actors close to him. Assholes nonetheless, but rational to some degree.

Austrian Chancellor Nehammer who recently met with Putin said Putin thinks he's winning the war. Perhaps that's Putin's game face. If Putin actually thinks he's winning the war, perhaps that's a good thing on some level. Maybe we don't want to see what happens when he figures out he is losing the war.

[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2686879]My concern, as I suspect is yours and others, is that Putin is irrational and not in the right mind. If that's the case, hopefully there are rational actors close to him. Assholes nonetheless, but rational to some degree.

Austrian Chancellor Nehammer who recently met with Putin said Putin thinks he's winning the war. Perhaps that's Putin's game face. If Putin actually thinks he's winning the war, perhaps that's a good thing on some level. Maybe we don't want to see what happens when he figures out he is losing the war.[/QUOTE]I think Putin knows, on a "big picture" level, how bad things are going. He's never been stupid, and I don't subscribe to the irrational or delusional theory. That's because, if he was truly in such a state, that would be seen as mental weakness and, even to those most loyal, unfitness to lead and a danger to Russia.

Consider this: If Putin was irrational (and thought he was winning), it's more likely he would pull forces from Eastern Ukraine to move against Kyiv, rather than the reverse. If he could have taken Kyiv, and killed or captured Zelensky (or caused him to flee), he could have declared victory no matter what happened in the rest of the country. Kyiv and "denazification" success were the big prizes.

That tells me he's rational enough to recognize that Kyiv is out of reach. So now he's desperately trying to find something he can spin as a victory, especially by May 9th, and he's doubling down in the hope that something goes his way. About Putin's meeting with the Austrian Chancellor, he has no choice but to put on a brave face, in the same way that he continues to show false bravado with threats against Sweden, Finland, etc. He's backed himself into a corner, with respect to both internal and external audiences, and currently has no off-ramp or exit.

Putin's biggest problem, and blind spot, is that he is almost certainly in the dark as to how bad things are on a granular level. He won't know, nor will anyone likely have the balls to tell him, how badly corruption has hollowed out his armed forces or how poorly his officers, soldiers, and equipment are performing. And the problem with doubling down is that, if all you have are shitty cards, you can keep playing them but still won't have a winning hand.

Switching to your favorite sports analogy, Putin's in the bottom of the 9th inning, or in extra time of a football match, or at the two-minute warning of an American football game. Options are few, and getting fewer, and time's running short. I can't say I have any great insight as to how things will play out, but here's an article with a few interesting observations and thoughts.

[URL]https://geopoliticalfutures.com/time-for-putins-hail-mary-pass/[/URL]

[QUOTE=Jmsuttr;2686640]Looking at the current state of affairs, it very much looks like Putin won't achieve his original goal of taking over Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to hold more Ukrainian territory than previously or will be forced to retreat to the pre-Feb 24th borders (or further).[/QUOTE]You're confused over the intent of The Special Military Operation. President Putin has been clear from the outset: goal has been to free Ukraine from the fascists and to keep Ukraine neutral. Your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is mainstream US and Western propaganda masquerading as news.

Will the objectives of the Special Military Operation change? Depends how determined USNato is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. So far, Ukraine lives (the Christian ones) aren't worth much to them.

[QUOTE=Golfinho;2687205]You're confused over the intent of The Special Military Operation. President Putin has been clear from the outset: goal has been to free Ukraine from the fascists and to keep Ukraine neutral. Your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is mainstream US and Western propaganda masquerading as news.

Will the objectives of the Special Military Operation change? Depends how determined USNato is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. So far, Ukraine lives (the Christian ones) aren't worth much to them.[/QUOTE]The military drive toward Kyiv, and attempts at encirclement, are the real-world facts that demonstrate Putin's intent toward that city, which is the seat of government, and against the Zelensky administration itself. Even accepting your Russo-Puti-philic slant, there's no way to free Ukraine from "fascists" (as Russia self-interestedly defines them) or keep Ukraine "neutral" (I. E. , a Russia-dominated state) without getting rid of Zelensky and installing a pro-Putin puppet. As I posted previously, if Putin had been successful at Kyiv he would have been crowing about it and Russian media would have been cheering their dominance and victory. But, after his army's utter failure and humiliating retreat, Putin is desperate to find a face-saving alternative solution.

As far as Putler's current objectives are concerned, the recent purges taking place in military and FSB circles would certainly seem to indicate that, first and foremost, he's looking to ensure his hold on power. That'll be tricky since his military has racked up notable failure after notable failure and his harshest critics are those who are even more hawkish. Of course, your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is Russian propaganda-excrement masquerading as regular excrement.

But hey, if LilliPutin needs to make a quick getaway, he could always hitch a ride on the flagship of his Black Sea Fleet, right? Actually, the fate of the Moskva is likely to foreshadow the future of Russia. Poor little Vlad will go down in history as having committed the ultimate geopolitical own-goal!

BTW, the fact that you sidle up to the psyop term "Special Operation" is another clear tell of how far up Putin's nether orifice you are. You really should arrange a meet with Pedro M, IRL. Maybe he could direct some of his "stock of wealth" your way?

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNizGwjZbo0&ab_channel=GrahamPhillips[/URL]

I have some reservations about this. Two Brits, two cunts.

[QUOTE=Golfinho;2687205]You're confused over the intent of The Special Military Operation. President Putin has been clear from the outset: goal has been to free Ukraine from the fascists and to keep Ukraine neutral. Your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is mainstream US and Western propaganda masquerading as news.

Will the objectives of the Special Military Operation change? Depends how determined USNato is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. So far, Ukraine lives (the Christian ones) aren't worth much to them.[/QUOTE]That you conform closely to the official Kremlin vocabulary is telling.

And what does "(the Christian ones)" mean here? Time to blame the Jews is it? The Jewish Nazis? You think Zelenskyy is a Jewish Nazi?

Presented without comment, the article speaks for itself:

[URL]https://tsarizm.com/news/eastern-europe/2022/04/17/russian-ruble-loses-free-convertibility-status/[/URL]

"The ruble is no longer a freely convertible currency," (former Finance Minister Alexei) Kudrin admitted Tuesday to journalists. Prior to late February, the ruble was one of the world's few dozen fully convertible currencies not even the Chinese renminbi enjoyed such a status, wrote The Bell.

Even Kudrin who is considered to be close to Russian President Vladimir Putin was unable to hide his disappointment. And it was deeply symbolic that it was Kudrin who was the first official to talk publicly about the end of the convertible currency era."