I like the details, thanks!
Regarding #1, I think the fact that you can reduce the risk is control. People who cannot leave have less control, you have more control.
Thanks for the examples regarding the supply chains and healthcare. Your points make sense to me.
[QUOTE=JjBee62;2432174]1. Assuming widespread contagion in both places, yes, you're more likely to be exposed in Medellin. Higher population density, more personal contact. Personally, it's not something I'm concerned about. That's just me personally. There's no way I can 100% protect myself. No matter what I do, the risk will never be zero. Which means ultimately it's not something I can control. I don't worry about what I can't control. I take the precautions available and deal with whatever happens.
2. I'm not certain the local healthcare anywhere is prepared to handle it. Assuming widespread contagion, anywhere will be quickly overwhelmed.
3. USA supply chain is something I do understand. Let's look back to 2005. First Hurricane Katrina hit, then just a few weeks later Hurricane Rita hit. This strained our ability to deliver relief and repair supplies to the limit. What made matters worse, much of the logistics support was wasted on self interest. Here's one example:
Hurricane Rita severely damaged the Coca-Cola bottling plant in Miami. In order to maintain their market presence Coca-Cola offered 3 times normal rates to deliver products from up to 1200 miles away. About 30 truckloads a day were wasted on making sure south Florida had plenty of Coke.
The USA supply chain is long. In Colombia it's relatively short. The USA supply chain is international. In Colombia, most food is grown locally. In the US corporate takeovers and mergers have created many food deserts. Many neighborhoods are already underserved. Supply chain disruptions will cause shortages quickly. Medellin still relies upon local markets. While there may be shortages, they will be more evenly distributed.
Why do I have more faith in Colombian healthcare?
Our system is focused on one thing above all else. Profit. Resources are allocated depending on profitability. Can we switch the priority to emergency response? I don't want to bet on it. We're talking about costs that could quickly exceed $500 billion. Imagine the argument over who's going to pay.
Healthcare in Colombia is a constitutional right. While the system may be overwhelmed, the first priority will be to provide care. Who pays for it is something that will be dealt with later.
In many ways, US healthcare is already overwhelmed. Five years ago, during a routine physical my doctor detected an anomaly in my heartbeat. Potentially, it was life threatening. I was immediately referred to a cardiologist. I called and explained the potentially life threatening problem. The earliest available appointment was in 7 months. I kept calling other cardiologists and found one I could see in 3 months. Finally, someone directed me to the cardiology clinic, where I only had to wait 3 weeks for an appointment. Fortunately, the problem isn't life threatening. I know others who have experienced similar issues for other specialists. For my rheumatoid arthritis I got lucky. Although the rheumatologist recommended had a 1 year waiting list to get in, I found a better one, with only a 2 month wait.
That's probably a lot more elaborate than you wanted.[/QUOTE]
