[QUOTE=Gino02;2714324]Great story! Do you report for CNN or MSNBC?[/QUOTE]No, Just like you, I only report for ISG -- the only political forum that matters.
Printable View
[QUOTE=Gino02;2714324]Great story! Do you report for CNN or MSNBC?[/QUOTE]No, Just like you, I only report for ISG -- the only political forum that matters.
[QUOTE=MarquisdeSade1;2714641]Yes they are all so altruistic.
How about they do something about that homeless issue LOL.
Oh wait they don't give a fuck junkies are shitting all over the place like the 3rd world shithole that it is.
[URL]https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/diarrhea-poured-on-woman-hollywood-homeless/2112762/[/URL]
[URL]https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2022/06/29/iranian-state-media-mocks-kamala-harriss-abortion-comments/[/URL]
Another California mental midget, she even makes nutty Nancy look smart LOL.[/QUOTE]Well, when you and your fellow classic Repubs finally eliminate the separation of church and state in the USA, turn America into a full blown talking snake Theocracy and establish beyond legal defence that Life Begins at Ejaculation, you can spend the time you used to spend mongering kneeling at the site of the Trump Taj Mahal Bankruptcy Memorial praying that the top income margins use some of their Repub Supply-Side / Trickle-Down windfall money to, you know, create a job or two someday.
LOL. Killing babies. Is the Morning After pill a murder weapon now? A BBBJ+CIM must surely be some form of infanticide too.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2714748][B]No, it is not. If it was, you would not be down. [/B][/QUOTE]You don't even know what diversification is. Or you don't understand it. Being diversified doesn't mean you can't be down in a down year.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2714748]You do not know what you are doing.[/QUOTE]Elvis you don't know anything about investing. You don't know the difference between investing and speculating. You don't know the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. You don't know the difference between alpha and beta risk. Stick to telling us about the perfect 10 you've been bedding. At least that fantasy can't be disproved.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2714748]When the Fed takes rates down to 0% and the government is handing out money like candy, assets go up. When they pull back the giving and rates go up, assets go down.[/QUOTE]I don't think you have ever taken a basic macro economics course.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2714748]Again, you keep bringing up who instead of what. I invest based on events and policies. I do not invest on whom. That you invest on a Democrat being in office and "high quality", whatever that means, shows me you are an amateur. I asked you a question and you do not answer it. Let's try again, Mr. High Quality. Why did Apple go down in price?[/QUOTE]Now that is a tough question. Why did Apple go down. That would involve the interplay of many things.
1. Apple ran up over 25% in the 4th quarter of 2021. It has retreated back to about that same level this year.
2. Apple is a growth stock which is in all the index funds. As the market started dipping the fund managers sold off their largest gainers to lock in their profits.
As a result a lot of the biggest gainers (tech stocks) sold off substantially.
3. Apple is experiencing supply chain problems. You might know (I'm never sure with you) that Apple assembles a large percentage of their products in China.
When China started locking down due to Covid in 2022 (yes this year) their supply chain disruption has been causing many analysts to doubt Apple can get.
Their products to stores in sufficient quantity to meet analyst projections.
4. At least a dozen other reasons.
OH and I didn't invest when Biden took office. I started investing when Ford was in office.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2714748]That lease dictates what the rental payments are, so your claim they can raise rents was false. What you stupidly do not get is that real estate this time is not a good instrument to invest in when you have inflation. When there is inflation, the Fed raises rates and that makes your REIT's value go down. Why is that smart guy?[/QUOTE]Sorry Elvis, your ignorance is showing. REITs can't raise their rents willy-nilly, they have a lease agreement. Net Lease REITs have annual escalators that increase rent based on the change in the CPI. So, inflation is higher, lease anniversary comes up, rent is recalculated based on increase in CPI (Consumer Price Index). It's really pretty basic, I'm surprised that someone who claims to be so knowledgeable about everything didn't know that.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2714748]Also, on top of rates going higher, the Fed has gone from buying MBS to selling them. That you are fighting the Fed shows once again that you are an amateur.[/QUOTE]You're talking about unwinding Quantitative Easing. That means the Fed (Federal Reserve) is selling off some of the securities that they purchased. Those are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds which are backed by home mortgages. Those MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) are supported by home loans not commercial loans. The majority of REITs own commercial properties. (Yes their are some housing REITs too). So how would I be fighting the Fed exactly? I would love to hear how you try to explain that one.
[QUOTE=Xpartan;2714860]No, Just like you, I only report for ISG -- the only political forum that matters.[/QUOTE]With your talent and passion, you should be a reporter or editor in CNN or MSNBC. Unlike me spreading lies in this ISG forum about Buyden's failures compared to Trump's successes, you can actually make a difference in people's lives through your honest investigative journalism.
Great discussion with Krystal Ball on the failures of US politics, both Reps and Dems, and the lies of Biden (as we all discussed a few weeks ago).
Krystal Ball is from USA, so hopoefully you will have no trouble understanding her. She certainly talks a fantastic game.
[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFymgJ1e0hg&t=900s[/URL]
[QUOTE=ChrisP;2714720]After wading through your usual torrent of verbal diarrhea there is still no answer for why no serious countries have mass mail-in voting.
That is of course because it is obviously unsecure, as we saw with the pallets of hundreds of thousands of ballots, 98% for Biden, which magically materialized in democrat city counting centers, after the GOP observers had been forced out, windows boarded up, and counting stopped for several hours so they could figure out how many Biden votes they needed to come up with.
Simple common sense, as used in democracies throughout the world, is that a secure election must be held with in-person votes, verified with photo ID, on paper ballots on the day of the election. These ballots must be counted and signed off by members of both parties.[/QUOTE]I told you why but you still didn't listen.
[B]Every single instance that you mentioned above and in your original post[/B] have been thoroughly debunked by the Republicans in charge of the elections. [B]Every single one[/B]. But that doesn't stop you. Ohhhhhh no. You will repeat the same BS over and over again, somehow believing that if you repeat it more often, it will somehow become true.
And furthermore, if the votes for Biden were fraudulent, how come "down ballot" Republicans often received many more votes than Cheeto Tweeto? Are you saying that all of the ballots for Biden contained just a presidential vote and nothing else? Because if you are saying that, and since those ballots are required by law to be kept for a while, you should be able to file a lawsuit to examine them. But you haven't. Gee, I wonder why.
You seem to forget that every "serious country" (your words) in the world insists on [B]Federal control[/B] of elections. Are you OK with that? Because if you aren't, you don't want the US to be a "serious country."
The Federal government determines what types of ID's are valid for registering to vote and what procedures are required if you can't provide the types of ID required. Are you OK with that? Because if you aren't, you don't want the US to be a "serious country."
The Federal government provides a voter ID card to the voter which must be used when voting. Are you OK with that? Because if you aren't, you don't want the US to be a "serious country."
The Federal government provides the voter rolls to the various polling places, often with photos of the voter. So that when you show up, your photo and signature matches the Federal government voter roll. Are you OK with that? Because if you aren't, you don't want the US to be a "serious country".
The Federal government determines the number and location of polling places and how many polling places are required for how many citizens. Are you OK with that? Because if you aren't, you don't want the US to be a "serious country".
Most "serious countries" hold elections on a weekend day and have determined that election day is a Federal holiday. Are you OK with that? Because if you aren't, you don't want the US to be a "serious country".
Because if you aren't OK with any of that, then you don't want the US to be a "serious country". Serious countries require all of the above because they understand what it takes to be serious. But you aren't OK with it, are you? You might be OK with one or two things but not all of them. Ohhhhhh no. You can BS about "seriousness" all you want, but the simple fact is that you don't want "serious". What you want is "control."
[QUOTE=Villainy;2714819]So you're saying: They died from Co-vid but they had something else wrong with them so they don't count? I'm sure the scientists will love to hear about this way of rationalizing the number of deaths from Covid.[/QUOTE]This line of "reasoning" has long been used by RethugliKKKans who claim that virtually nobody has died from anything resembling COVID. This line of "reasoning" makes perfect sense to anyone who feels that since those folks were going to die anyway because of their pre-existing conditions, their deaths don't count.
This line of "reasoning" makes perfect sense to the folks who believe that windmills cause cancer, that the Army took over the airports during the Revolutionary War, that Italian satellites changed votes and a host of other batshit crazy things.
[QUOTE=Villainy;2714819]So you're saying: They died from Co-vid but they had something else wrong with them so they don't count? I'm sure the scientists will love to hear about this way of rationalizing the number of deaths from Covid.[/QUOTE]Of course that's what he's saying because he's poorly educated. Poorly educated people do not know better than let others do their thinking for them. Therefore whatever affirmation comes out in a Tucker Carlson rant is accepted as the full truth then it's repeated online when they try to debate. But if someone is sleeping in their bed with high blood pressure and obesity when a Russian missile strikes and blows them up, then it's the missile that killed them, duh. Now the arrogant ass might say "well they would have died soon anyway," but they don't know that. People can live a long time with obesity and high blood pressure, especially in the modern age with effective treatments for the latter.
[QUOTE=Villainy;2714819]So you're saying: They died from Co-vid but they had something else wrong with them so they don't count?[/QUOTE]Not merely "something else wrong with them" like an ingrown toenail or papercut, but another reason entirely for why they died.
We know that the average age of death with covid is already higher than the average life expectancy; and the overwhelming majority had comorbidities that would have killed them anyway. Hospitals were incentive to add covid to death certs; notoriously there were cases of people dying in auto accidents whose corpses were tested for covid.
It's really morbidly fascinating how the wacko left likes to pretend that we were all immortal before the great scamdemic. Another example of the utter detachment from reality of the party that brought you pregnant men, child trannies, and "the world is going to end in ten years".
[QUOTE=Paulie97;2715035]Of course that's what he's saying because he's poorly educated. Poorly educated people do not know better than let others do their thinking for them. Therefore whatever affirmation comes out in a Tucker Carlson rant is accepted as the full truth then it's repeated online when they try to debate. But if someone is sleeping in their bed with high blood pressure and obesity when a Russian missile strikes and blows them up, then it's the missile that killed them, duh. Now the arrogant ass might say "well they would have died soon anyway," but they don't know that. People can live a long time with obesity and high blood pressure, especially in the modern age with effective treatments for the latter.[/QUOTE]Now the wacko left is comparing the effects of the covid flu to "a Russian missile striking and blowing them up".
Insert Yakkety Sax music here.
[QUOTE=PVMonger;2715015]I told you why but you still didn't listenBLABLABLA....[/QUOTE]And you continue with one of your signature long, turgid, unreadable rants which have nothing to do with the question at hand.
Why do no other democracies allow mass mail-in voting? That would be much easier than making people show up in person with photo ID on election day to cast a paper ballot. So why bother doing the latter?
It's almost as if every other democracy in the world has a reason for not wanting to spam out tens of millions of ballots to whoever, wherever, to be collected by whoever, whenever (and printed / filled out in whatever number required to overturn a lead). Whatever could that be?
[QUOTE=ChrisP;2714721][B]No, the deaths *with* covid, plus other co-morbidities which actually caused the death, topped a million. Deaths from covid and no other co-morbidities are well under 80,000.[/B][/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Paulie97;2715035]Of course that's what he's saying because he's poorly educated. Poorly educated people do not know better than let others do their thinking for them. Therefore whatever affirmation comes out in a Tucker Carlson rant is accepted as the full truth then it's repeated online when they try to debate. But if someone is sleeping in their bed with high blood pressure and obesity when a Russian missile strikes and blows them up, then it's the missile that killed them, duh. Now the arrogant ass might say "well they would have died soon anyway," but they don't know that. People can live a long time with obesity and high blood pressure, especially in the modern age with effective treatments for the latter.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=PVMonger;2715019]This line of "reasoning" has long been used by RethugliKKKans who claim that virtually nobody has died from anything resembling COVID. This line of "reasoning" makes perfect sense to anyone who feels that since those folks were going to die anyway because of their pre-existing conditions, their deaths don't count.
This line of "reasoning" makes perfect sense to the folks who believe that windmills cause cancer, that the Army took over the airports during the Revolutionary War, that Italian satellites changed votes and a host of other batshit crazy things.[/QUOTE]Yes, the "logic" is absurd. Imagine the following hypothetical news story on Breitbart or Faux:
Major earthquake hit Indonesia today. 456 people are dead, but we're only counting 102 of them because the others had co-morbidities and would have died at some point anyway.
[QUOTE=Villainy;2714969]Sorry Elvis, your ignorance is showing. REITs can't raise their rents willy-nilly, they have a lease agreement. Net Lease REITs have annual escalators that increase rent based on the change in the CPI. So, inflation is higher, lease anniversary comes up, rent is recalculated based on increase in CPI (Consumer Price Index). It's really pretty basic, I'm surprised that someone who claims to be so knowledgeable about everything didn't know that.[/QUOTE]Yeah, and the clients can leave, declare bankruptcy, and if land is cheap enough, go out and build on their own building and real estate is going to get cheaper when the Fed is selling MBS not buying them. That is where you are fighting the fed. You think home MBS and commercial ones do not compete with each other? Why would you think that?
As for diversification, one should not hold REITs which have a fixed yield. The REIT will go down in value due to multiple contraction which you still do not get (and that is why Apple stock went down not the bullshit reasons you mentioned).
Maybe you can figure out who said this "Interest rates are like gravity in valuations. If interest rates are nothing, values can be almost infinite. If interest rates are extremely high, that's a huge gravitational pull on values. ".
And the 0% rates and free cash is what prompted the Biden rally. And not only that, it was impossible to calculate fair value.
So asset values go down when interest rates go up, fool. Talk about lacking your basic knowledge of economics.
Secondly, Mr. Real Estate, there are ARM mortgages. Maybe you have heard of them? With an adjustable rate mortgage, people pay more to those who hold the mortgages when mortgage rates go up. There are funds called note funds which hold a pile of said mortgages. And when interest rates go up, the yield on said funds go up and the value of the fund goes up as well.
So why do you not own any note funds but REITs when the fed is raising rates? Because you are a moron.
So what happens to value stocks, growth stocks, and REITs in a high inflation / rising interest rate climate? They all go down in value, and your portfolio HAS gone down in value.
What goes up in value? Inverse ETFs that short the market, note funds, and commodities in high demand and low supply that can be raised in price over the inflation rate. At this time, that would be oil.
So you are not diversified. You just think you are. If you accuse me of not being diversified, I am guilty as charged but unlike you I know what I am doing. For me, diversification is diworseifaction. So stockbrokers say do not keep all your eggs in one basket. Someone else said, " "Keep all your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket closely. " Who was that? And who wrote a book on diworseification?
[QUOTE=Villainy;2714969]You don't know the difference between investing and speculating. You don't know the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. You don't know the difference between alpha and beta risk. Stick to telling us about the perfect 10 you've been bedding. At least that fantasy can't be disproved.[/QUOTE]LOL. And this is why you are a fucking loser V. You are a dumbshit Dem who sees the world as you want it to be not how it is. Why make the accusation on analysis instead of asking? You are the moron who said commercial real estate and residential do not compete. Where did you come up with that Mr. Reality?
All asset classes compete with one another, and that is how you determine valuation. To compare yields with stocks and other instruments, you use the PE ratio. A PE of 20 is a yield of 5%. A PE of 33 is a yield of 3%. Stocks are riskier than most bonds so they command a higher yield to compensate for that risk. People can buy a 30 year fixed mortgage now yielding 6. 5%. Which is an asset secured by real estate where it is impossible said value goes to zero. Stocks go to zero all the time.
When the S&P 500 was at 4000, the PE was about 20 and the yield was about 5%. Why is the market priced the way it is? Because historically the market is priced at a PE of 15 to 17. That is a 5.8 to 6.7% yield. In addition, S&P earnings are projected to go up to a $225 to $240 from $200 or so. Despite all the issues with supply chains and rising input costs, analysts have not taken projected earnings down. Earnings reports start coming in on July 21. That is a significant date.
Another significant date was April 15 when people have to fund their retirement accounts. That is the basis of the slogan, "Sell in May and go away" and why invested shortly after that date. That is investing on fact not market timing. There are huge cash inflows into the market before April 15.
So what is fair value on the S&P with mortgages paying 6.5%? Fair value IMO is at least 8% or a PE value of 12.5. So fair valuation on the S&P is 2500 if earnings come in at $200. To justify a $4000 valuation, S&P earnings would have to come in at $320 which is insane. And that is why I am short. The market is pricing the S&P based on history instead of comparable asset classes, and earnings projections IMO are in fantasy land.
THAT is fundamental analysis dumb ass and what you have shown is you do not have a fucking clue what that is, moron.
[QUOTE=ChrisP;2714720]After wading through your usual torrent of verbal diarrhea there is still no answer for why no serious countries have mass mail-in voting.[/QUOTE]Does Google not work where you live?
[URL]https://www.idea.int/news-media/news/special-voting-arrangements-svas-europe-country-postal-early-mobile-and-proxy[/URL]
IDEA = The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) is an intergovernmental organization that supports sustainable democracy worldwide.
Here some of the "not so serious countries" that have mail-in voting: (Note the list only covers European countries).
Germany.
Poland.
Switzerland.
United Kingdom.
Iceland.
Luxembourg.
And then there are a number of countries that allow mail-in voting for some of their voters.
Spain.
Slovenia.
Lithuania.
Austria.
People from this group may vote by mail if they don't think they can make it to the polls (without proving a specific reason). In other words they have to apply.
[QUOTE=ChrisP;2714720]That is of course because it is obviously unsecure, as we saw with the pallets of hundreds of thousands of ballots, 98% for Biden, which magically materialized in democrat city counting centers, after the GOP observers had been forced out, windows boarded up, and counting stopped for several hours so they could figure out how many Biden votes they needed to come up with.[/QUOTE]All of that is BS. Why did the Attorney General (William Barr a Trump appointee who was going to lose his job if Biden was elected) tell Trump that the DOJ (Department of Justice) investigated all these claims of voter fraud and found nothing that would have changed the election. Trump refused to believe it, of course, and neither do his minions to this day.
[QUOTE=ChrisP;2714720]Simple common sense, as used in democracies throughout the world, is that a secure election must be held with in-person votes, verified with photo ID, on paper ballots on the day of the election. These ballots must be counted and signed off by members of both parties.[/QUOTE]Read that list of countries that allow mail-in voting without restrictions again. You are still living in the 19th century.
[QUOTE=ChrisP;2714720]Anyone who disagrees with this wants unsecure, rigged elections, which is of course the aim of the democrats and the media.
[/QUOTE]Would it help if I gave you a conservative source? Ever hear of the Heritage Foundation? Here is how they describe themselves: Heritage's mission is to formulate and promote public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.
[URL]https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud[/URL]
They did an ongoing study of voter fraud. Here is what they have listed over the last 30 years. Approximately 1,300 cases of documented voter fraud. The proven fraud cases went about equally both ways, some for Democrats and some for Republicans.
Instead of believing every conservative talk show host that wants ratings, do your homework.
[QUOTE=Villainy;2714969]You don't even know what diversification is. Or you don't understand it. Being diversified doesn't mean you can't be down in a down year.
Elvis you don't know anything about investing. You don't know the difference between investing and speculating. You don't know the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. You don't know the difference between alpha and beta risk. Stick to telling us about the perfect 10 you've been bedding. At least that fantasy can't be disproved.
I don't think you have ever taken a basic macro economics course.
Now that is a tough question. Why did Apple go down. That would involve the interplay of many things.
1. Apple ran up over 25% in the 4th quarter of 2021. It has retreated back to about that same level this year.
2. Apple is a growth stock which is in all the index funds. As the market started dipping the fund managers sold off their largest gainers to lock in their profits.
As a result a lot of the biggest gainers (tech stocks) sold off substantially.
3. Apple is experiencing supply chain problems. You might know (I'm never sure with you) that Apple assembles a large percentage of their products in China.
When China started locking down due to Covid in 2022 (yes this year) their supply chain disruption has been causing many analysts to doubt Apple can get.
Their products to stores in sufficient quantity to meet analyst projections.
4. At least a dozen other reasons.
OH and I didn't invest when Biden took office. I started investing when Ford was in office.
Sorry Elvis, your ignorance is showing. REITs can't raise their rents willy-nilly, they have a lease agreement. Net Lease REITs have annual escalators that increase rent based on the change in the CPI. So, inflation is higher, lease anniversary comes up, rent is recalculated based on increase in CPI (Consumer Price Index). It's really pretty basic, I'm surprised that someone who claims to be so knowledgeable about everything didn't know that.
You're talking about unwinding Quantitative Easing. That means the Fed (Federal Reserve) is selling off some of the securities that they purchased. Those are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds which are backed by home mortgages. Those MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) are supported by home loans not commercial loans. The majority of REITs own commercial properties. (Yes their are some housing REITs too). So how would I be fighting the Fed exactly? I would love to hear how you try to explain that one.[/QUOTE]If Elvis went short on the market every time an incoming Dem had to massively deficit spend in order to pull us out of the horrific decline combined with stone cold empty coffers the outgoing Repub left behind and simply do it at some point when the tactic showed signs of working and was no longer needed then that was a pretty damn easy pattern to follow without all this constant daily if not hourly study, research and due diligence on irrelevant factors he appears to devote himself to for the cause.
Problem is not every one of those previous Dem rescues and recoveries of the Repub crash and decline coincidentally had the global supply-chain collapse, Ukrainian grain and Russian oil supply disruptions extending and exacerbating the inevitable recovery-related inflation issue this one has going against it.
So if he had followed his repeated "reasoning" for going short this time in those previous times he would not have produced a gain worth the risk of getting out of the market.
In fact, if he had sold out of the market those previous times for the same "reason" he boasts about having gotten out this time that means he stood by on the sidelines and missed out on some of the greatest and longest uninterrupted Bull Market runs in history.