Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[QUOTE=PedroMorales;2709472]Here are the two American mercenaries. They have no protection under the Geneva Convention and will most likely be sentenced to death by firing squad which is a shame as that is a military send off. Keep their victims in your prayers.

I'm a little worried the uptick in Covid will damage my vacation plans. That is none of their concern as they don't catch Covid in hell.

[URL]https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/15/exclusive-first-two-us-fighters-captured-russian-forces-battle/[/URL][/QUOTE][URL]https://metro.co.uk/2022/06/16/vladimir-putin-seen-gripping-table-so-hard-his-veins-start-to-bulge-16837200/[/URL]

He's probably a heartbeat (literally) away from some kind of debilitating medical event. In fact, one report I saw said he needed the immediate attention of his doctors at the end of a recent video meeting. And that's the probable explanation for the sudden cancellation of his scheduled "Direct Line" (live Q&A) broadcast.

[URL]https://metro.co.uk/2022/06/10/putin-advised-not-to-make-long-appearances-after-sharp-sickness-16802687/[/URL]

A lot of people have already died in this war, and unfortunately that's not close to ending. And it's an absolute fact that the blood of everyone killed is on Putin's hands, they are all victims of the evil megalomaniacal dictator. Which is why it would be the truest poetic justice if he becomes the highest profile casualty of the very war he started.

But there are two big questions about what happens when Putin croaks. 1) Will the elites manage a smooth transition or start stabbing each other in the back? 2) Will they put his corpse on display like Lenin, or hang him upside down like Mussolini?

[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2708777]I found this to be an interesting article. It analyzes the challenges ahead to bringing peace to the Ukraine. While I might prefer a more resounding Ukrainian victory, I concur with the authors that "winning small" is the most likely and practical resolution to the war.

[URL]https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-06-06/what-if-ukraine-wins[/URL]

Excerpt:

"But a full-scale Ukrainian military defeat of Russia, including the retaking of Crimea, verges on fantasy. It would be far too optimistic to base either Ukrainian or Western strategy on such an outcome. Pursuing it would also send the war into a new phase. Having poured billions of dollars into Crimea's development, a symbol of Russian renewal, Moscow would interpret a Ukrainian offensive in Crimea as an assault on Russian territory, something Moscow would try to prevent by all available means.[/QUOTE]I have no problem with the article, except it would be nice to see authors include some kind of admission that there are possible outcomes they haven't thought of, or ones they've thought about but don't have a clue as to how things could turn out.

For example, what if Putin dies, or is incapacitated, or is deposed? From my reading of the article, the post-war scenarios assume that Putin's policies will continue along the same trajectory. But, if Russia suffers a humiliating defeat (as defined by Russia's own war-hawks), it's a coin-flip as to whether he stays in power. And even a peaceful transfer of power isn't a guarantee of continuity. If Russia's economy is in bad shape, the new leader could decide to blame everything on Putin.

And then there's the matter of some of their conclusions about battlefield outcomes, most notably regarding Crimea. I certainly don't have a crystal ball but I would certainly advise against making categorical statements. Right now, for example, Ukraine is mounting a counter-offensive in the South (Kherson and Nova Kakhovka areas). One possible result is that they could regain control over the primary source of water for all of Crimea. That may not be the same as retaking the entire peninsula, but it's nothing to sneeze at and would have a dramatic effect on the calculus of any subsequent negotiation.

[URL]https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1536750514222022657.html[/URL]

[URL]https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1536833540217876483.html[/URL]

There are at least some military observers saying that one objective of the battle around Severodonetsk is to keep Russian forces from reinforcing the South. Maybe Ukraine will push to control the water source, or maybe they'll use it primarily to force Russia to defend on yet another front. I have no idea, but I'm closely watching developments in the Kherson area.

So my only real point is that war, and especially this one, is full of "unknown unknowns," which I wish more pundits and analysts would acknowledge when writing their articles.

[QUOTE=PedroMorales;2709098]Spouting stupid BBC shit. If granny did not back track, your Nazi pals, egged on by the BBC, would put one in her ear.[/QUOTE]But she did backtrack and obviously didn't know what she was doing hahaha! The Ruskies are so desperate to look good in this that they would take advantage of an old babushka. And sounds like another weakly disguised "fake news" allegation from you.

[QUOTE=Jojosun;2709132] Nor was that Massive invasion of Iraq which Farty Joe supported and helped to mislead public opinion about it. "More than 4,500 US soldiers, and nearly as many US military contractors, lost their lives; tens of thousands were wounded, with hundreds of thousands more suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder. Estimates of Iraqi deaths run as high as 1 Million". [URL]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/17/joe-biden-role-iraq-war[/URL].

BTW, 19 Ukrainian Soldiers were also killed in Iraq, Sent there by Kuchma.

[URL]https://www.army.mil/article/15056/ukrainians_complete_mission_in_iraq[/URL][/QUOTE]No mention of all the Iraqis murdered, tortured and raped by the Americans, who said murdering 500,000 Iraqi children was worth it. To be an American today is like being a German Nazi in 1944.

As I've posted before, it's better to get information from as close to an original source as you can. This site, while it's certainly pro-Ukraine, doesn't feature analysis or commentary. Rather it simply translates interesting items from Russian or Ukrainian into English. As with all sources, you need to use your own judgment and discernment about the veracity and value of any individual item.

[URL]https://wartranslated.com[/URL]

Here are two that recently got my attention:

[URL]https://wartranslated.com/igor-girking-predicts-a-battle-for-the-initiative-10-june-2022/[/URL]

Girkin's (see below) assessment of the battle for Southern Ukraine.

[URL]https://wartranslated.com/lpr-blogger-says-ukrainian-16-june-attack-on-krasnyi-luch-stockpiles-will-halt-russian-offensive/[/URL]

An LPR blogger's assessment of the consequences of a recent Ukrainian strike on a Russian supply depot.

As you browse the site, you'll see quite a few entries that translate comments by Igor Girkin. He's an FSB Colonel (reserves, but still connected) who often gives scathing critiques of Russian military leadership and performance. He's pro-Russia, but he advocates for doing even more, such as full mobilization. So it's interesting to read his critiques and assessments. The site's author is of the opinion that Girkin is allowed to speak out, as long as he doesn't directly criticize Putin, as a way of giving voice to extreme war-hawk views. You can read and make up your own mind.

[QUOTE=Jojosun;2709518]Putin&Biden got Blood on their hands, But of course Putin has the biggest share.

And another thing, who in Russia would be able to square up to Putin in public and give him a piece of his mind in a similar way this Brave American Veteran confronted Biden! Urlreplacement0}.[/QUOTE]Here's the Link. [URL]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ojkCKPtcJ54[/URL].

[QUOTE=Jmsuttr;2709539]I have no problem with the article, except it would be nice to see authors include some kind of admission that there are possible outcomes they haven't thought of, or ones they've thought about but don't have a clue as to how things could turn out.

For example, what if Putin dies, or is incapacitated, or is deposed? From my reading of the article, the post-war scenarios assume that Putin's policies will continue along the same trajectory. But, if Russia suffers a humiliating defeat (as defined by Russia's own war-hawks), it's a coin-flip as to whether he stays in power. And even a peaceful transfer of power isn't a guarantee of continuity. If Russia's economy is in bad shape, the new leader could decide to blame everything on Putin.
......................................

So my only real point is that war, and especially this one, is full of "unknown unknowns," which I wish more pundits and analysts would acknowledge when writing their articles.[/QUOTE]I didn't really take it as that. I think the authors were trying to raise the real possibility that the war might not resolve a lot. I also have thought about how wars achieve complete resolution (many don't) and thought the authors' statement below was insightful.

"The hypothesis that Russia's full-scale defeat would excise the cancer of imperialism from the Russian leadership and body politic rests on a clumsy analogy to Germany's unconditional surrender in World War II, and stems from a desire not just to end this war but to foreclose the possibility of Russia starting any future war in Europe. It is an intoxicating vision, but one unconnected to reality."

I'm sure the authors considered Putin dying, incapacitated or being deposed. It would seem to me to be a risky proposition to continue fighting and forgoing negotiations on this hope alone. Putin's departure by one means or another could possibly bring an ideal conclusion of the war, but it is also predicated on other things happening after his removal.

As far as "Russia suffers a humiliating defeat", I don't see that happening on the battlefield. Without NATO support for the Ukraine attacking Russian targets, I think a grinding stalemate inside the Ukraine is far more likely. So in my opinion, the humiliating Russian defeat only comes about with regime change and capitulation. This gets back to my point do you continue fighting and forgoing negotiations on the premise that Putin is close to being removed one way or another.

In the likely responses to follow, I would not impose too much argumentative meaning to my raising the issue of negotiations. One in disagreement can chastise the idea of negotiations, but there are many matters that need to be resolved to end the conflict. Those who think that the Ukrainians will drive the Russians out of the Ukraine indefinitely including Crimea and possibly incite a regime change in Russia clearly would find much to disagree with my post.

[QUOTE=PedroMorales;2709614]No mention of all the Iraqis murdered, tortured and raped by the Americans, who said murdering 500,000 Iraqi children was worth it. To be an American today is like being a German Nazi in 1944.[/QUOTE]To be one today is more like being an Isreali in 2022.

[QUOTE=Golfinho;2709797]To be one today is more like being an Isreali in 2022.[/QUOTE]That is really low. Israelis, most of whom have Ukrainian roots, words cannot describe. I was watching a video of the captured US bio weapons guy (the whitey caught alongside the Viet). Seemed in good spirits. Hope he rats out Hunter Biden.

Just watching those fkers now around the Damascus gate. Though some Americans may have redeeming features (Lot and salt), they haven one. Day after day.

And the Ukrainian Parliament, who will take over? Who will do the snapchat videos when this dead man walking gets his desserts? If Russia was the USA, Zelensky would have been fried months ago. Is Russia just keeping this fool on ice? Would it help if the Nazis just took front stage in Kiev?

Of the USMC (America's equivalent of the Waffen SS) becomes the third American mercenary to be captured by Russian peace keepers in Ukraine. Capt. Kurpasi, from Wilmington, North Carolina, should know that the Geneva Convention does not apply to mercenaries. He is fair game.

No more killing Iraqi kids or Ukrainian Russian speakers for him [URL]https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/16/politics/state-department-american-missing-ukraine/index.html[/URL].

[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2709788]I didn't really take it as that. I think the authors were trying to raise the real possibility that the war might not resolve a lot. I also have thought about how wars achieve complete resolution (many don't) and thought the authors' statement below was insightful.

"The hypothesis that Russia's full-scale defeat would excise the cancer of imperialism from the Russian leadership and body politic rests on a clumsy analogy to Germany's unconditional surrender in World War II, and stems from a desire not just to end this war but to foreclose the possibility of Russia starting any future war in Europe. It is an intoxicating vision, but one unconnected to reality."

I'm sure the authors considered Putin dying, incapacitated or being deposed. It would seem to me to be a risky proposition to continue fighting and forgoing negotiations on this hope alone. Putin's departure by one means or another could possibly bring an ideal conclusion of the war, but it is also predicated on other things happening after his removal.

As far as "Russia suffers a humiliating defeat", I don't see that happening on the battlefield. Without NATO support for the Ukraine attacking Russian targets, I think a grinding stalemate inside the Ukraine is far more likely. So in my opinion, the humiliating Russian defeat only comes about with regime change and capitulation. This gets back to my point do you continue fighting and forgoing negotiations on the premise that Putin is close to being removed one way or another.

In the likely responses to follow, I would not impose too much argumentative meaning to my raising the issue of negotiations. One in disagreement can chastise the idea of negotiations, but there are many matters that need to be resolved to end the conflict. Those who think that the Ukrainians will drive the Russians out of the Ukraine indefinitely including Crimea and possibly incite a regime change in Russia clearly would find much to disagree with my post.[/QUOTE]Too many articles verge on the brink of hubris, in that they cherry-pick the variables they claim are significant, while side-stepping or ignoring those that are inconvenient or non-supportive of their thesis.

I'm much more receptive to authors who focus on what's actually happening than I am to those who come up with some kind of construct about how, in their opinion, things could play out. When I read the latter kind of article, I usually spot some assumption they're making which, if things happen differently, substantially undercuts their thesis. And, at that point, I lose interest because they continue writing in a confident voice when they should (IMO) be writing with more humility and admitting how much they don't know, and which assumptions might not hold.

At this point, I'm pretty much done with so-called experts (see my post in the Kyiv main thread) because so many have been so profoundly wrong (and so few admit that fact). What I look for are accurate observations about what's happening right now, as I think such observations hold more promise for extrapolating towards the future. So, when I read an article that doesn't seem to fully embrace or understand what's happening on the battlefield at this very moment, I'm frankly not that interested. I'm happy to trade a pound of "experts" for an ounce of accurate observers.

Gerasimov's trip to the front lines was a disaster, Shoigu (who isn't a real General) is now a hollow figurehead, and the newest revelation is that Dvornikov is an incompetent drunk!

[URL]https://odessa-journal.com/bellingcat-investigator-why-putin-doesnt-trust-general-dvornikov/[/URL]

No wonder the Orc-Generals are dropping like fetid flies. The vaunted Russian military machine turns out to be held together with chewing gum and baling wire. Except that some corrupt General sold the wire, replaced it with twine, and then swapped the chewing gum for gooey piles of shit! No wonder the wheels are falling off. Way to go, Vlad!

[QUOTE=PedroMorales;2709851]That is really low. Israelis, most of whom have Ukrainian roots, words cannot describe. I

[/QUOTE]Your bashing seems to be all over the place!!

The man from Odessa, Jabotinsky with his brand of Zionism, based on claiming all of the land including Jordan, is not really majority opinion in Israel. More support for it for reasons of their own, is to be found among White American Evangelicals.

[URL]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_land_without_a_people_for_a_people_without_a_land[/URL]#text=%22%20 A%20 land%20 without%20 a%20 people%20 for%20 a,historicity%20 and%20 significance%20 are%20 a%20 matter%20 of%20 contention.

Jewish Ukrainians who fled Putin's war in their thousands found homes in Germany. "Many Jewish Ukrainian refugees – no one know how many, but it is certainly thousands. Are choosing to come to Germany. Why? They are looking for quiet and Israel is seen as being dangerous. In addition, Germany has committed significant resources to help: [URL]https://m.jpost.com/opinion/article-706446[/URL].

[QUOTE=Jmsuttr;2710049]Too many articles verge on the brink of hubris, in that they cherry-pick the variables they claim are significant, while side-stepping or ignoring those that are inconvenient or non-supportive of their thesis.

I'm much more receptive to authors who focus on what's actually happening than I am to those who come up with some kind of construct about how, in their opinion, things could play out. When I read the latter kind of article, I usually spot some assumption they're making which, if things happen differently, substantially undercuts their thesis. And, at that point, I lose interest because they continue writing in a confident voice when they should (IMO) be writing with more humility and admitting how much they don't know, and which assumptions might not hold.

At this point, I'm pretty much done with so-called experts (see my post in the Kyiv main thread) because so many have been so profoundly wrong (and so few admit that fact). What I look for are accurate observations about what's happening right now, as I think such observations hold more promise for extrapolating towards the future. So, when I read an article that doesn't seem to fully embrace or understand what's happening on the battlefield at this very moment, I'm frankly not that interested. I'm happy to trade a pound of "experts" for an ounce of accurate observers.[/QUOTE]Nothing personal, but I think you are generally too optimistic that the war's outcome will provide a great victory for the Ukraine. I think there is enough uncertainty in this war and any war for that matter to make all predictions specious.

I think many have painted a picture the war is an existential battle for the Ukraine that can be resolved with great satisfaction and achievement. It has also been said Putin himself could very well be in an existential fight over the Ukraine. That sounds like the recipe for a long, grinding war.

What's the best outcome Ukraine "wins small" and the war ends this year or they fight a five year conflict to achieve something possibly more or possibly not? It's not an easy question to answer in my opinion.

Having said that, yes it would be great if Putin felt his world closing in, walks into his office, shuts the door and ingests a cyanide pill.