Generic Ballot Control of Congress question
[QUOTE=EihTooms;2761716]Individual polls can sometimes be wildly off from the election results, even days before election day. But this time around, as usual, the Consensus of polls on that Generic Ballot Control of Congress question were quite accurate to within a normal +/-Margin of Error 3-4 percentage points.
Where they made the big Error on the Margin was in under-sampling likely or new Dem voters / over-sampling likely Repub voters with their insistence on dragging in "save the day for the Repubs" demonstrably Repub-leaning polls like Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Emerson too often.
As I pointed out here several times along the way. ... [/QUOTE]
BTW, thanks, w/r to the "411" on the Generic Ballot Control of Congress question poll...much appreciated!
Sorry, I hadn't notice any of your previous posts w/r to this poll. But apparently, it's been around for 40 yrs, but for whatever reason, isn't well known. Who knew? So having just looked into and briefly checked it out, it does appear to be predictive, accurate and evenly bipartisan. Which fares better than most of the other individual (and often partisan) polls.
Since I don't really put much faith into election polls, I tend not to follow them, too closely. However, I'll definitely be more mindful towards this poll as a "bell weather" reference, w/r to congressional and presidential elections.
I don't disagree with many of the other multitude of reasons you state w/r to the under/over sampling of the other polls, but in my mind, there has always been a plethora of unknown variables pollsters will never be able to account for and hence my reservation towards following polls. But I'm always learning, as was the case today.
Why Biden wanted to win 2 more Dem seats in the Senate
[QUOTE=Tiny12;2762080]Damn it Elvis, I don't think we're going to get Tooms to award us that special participation trophy or certificate or whatever it is. We're going to have to learn to think like Democrats if we're going to get that award.
So maybe you could explain how you come up with the Democrats' definition of gridlock? Apparently you can be a Democratic Senator, and go along 100% with what President Biden and Party leaders propose, and you're still responsible for gridlock. That's what Manchin and Sinema did with the $1. 9 trillion, budget-busting, inflation-supercharging American Rescue Plan. One of the revered pieces of legislation that the Democratic Party passed when it controlled the House, the Senate and the Presidency. That just seems like an awfully low barrier for "gridlock."[/QUOTE]Gridlock can be achieved regardless of political party. It can result from Consevative vs Liberal, pro Universal Healthcare vs pro For Profit Only Heathcare, whatever.
Biden was hoping for a gain of at least 2 Dems in the Senate, numbering 52, in order to thwart the Gridlock posed by Sinema and Manchin in his own Party. He will have to settle for 51 this time around, at best.
If merely squeaking out a 2-3 House seat advantage by one Party "achieved Gridlock" as Elvis hilariously twisted himself into a pretzel trying to prove in another failed attempt to coax one of those highly prized Participation Certificates out of me, well, that would mean many administrations of various Parties got nothing signed and passed throughout their term / s.
Which, although this might come as a shock to history-challeged Repubs like Elvis, didn't happen.
Ah yes, you are right about that one thing
[QUOTE=Tiny12;2762428]OK, I'm going to try a different tack. Maybe "we'll just have to disagree" will be sufficient to get a highly prized participation certificate. I'll try that. I guess poking fun at you for confusing the American Rescue Plan with the Build Back Better Bill was not going to get me a certificate. That was stupid on my part. You don't make fun of the Judge and come away with an award.
I strongly disagree with your statement that Biden accomplished more [B]positive[/B] legislation than any POTUS for the past 80 years. I don't think any of his headline legislation was positive. The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan blew our national debt out by 8.5% and supercharged inflation. The infrastructure bill, chip bill, and green "Inflation Reduction Act" bill may have had some good points, but they were mostly corporate welfare, i.e. pork. Biden did get a lot of negative legislation passed, but I can't say it was the worst of any POTUS for the past 80 years.[/QUOTE]Yes, you are right that I confused the American Rescue Plan with the Build Back Better Act that was trapped in so much Sinema + Manchin + 50 Repubs in the Senate Gridlock that it had to be abandoned and brought back in a smaller form later as the Inflation Reduction Act, which, since we now know a sizable percentage of the lingering Inflation is nothing more than corporate price gouging, addressed that issue on a couple of important factors brilliantly.
Easy to confuse a historic legislation or two passed by Biden when there have been so many.
However, I am wondering which POTUS of the past 80 years or so you think passed [B]more positive legislation for America in his first two years[/B] than Biden, since that was my point.
I mean, I get that you don't think all of it was positive because you read some negative comments about some of it somewhere.
But in order to refute my point shouldn't you at least name another POTUS who passed more, ok, [I]potentially[/I] positive legislation in his first two years than Biden has?
Trump?
Clinton?
Reagan?
Bush 1 or 2?
And do tell us what those Acts or Bills were.