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[QUOTE=BananaBoi;2442966]
Look at some of the European countries like UK, France, Belgium, Netherlands, etc. If you take the total number of tests vs. total number of cases ratio, it's WAY WAY lower than Thailand.[/QUOTE]I think we all know that the real number of cases is way higher than the cases found by testing, simply because they don't test the entire population. In the European countries the authorities admit this. Do the authorities in Thailand admit this too?
[QUOTE=Mogwai;2443000]I think we all know that the real number of cases is way higher than the cases found by testing, simply because they don't test the entire population. In the European countries the authorities admit this. Do the authorities in Thailand admit this too?[/QUOTE]My understanding is that scientifically one is supposed to test a sample, then derive a forecast for the general population. For example if 10% of the sample test positive, you would then assume 10% of the general population would be positive. At least, that's what I remember from the statistical courses I took in college, many years ago.
[QUOTE=Lefeu;2443004]My understanding is that scientifically one is supposed to test a sample, then derive a forecast for the general population. For example if 10% of the sample test positive, you would then assume 10% of the general population would be positive. At least, that's what I remember from the statistical courses I took in college, many years ago.[/QUOTE]Theoretically it's correct. But in practical it will give just "sensational" results. I read some articles by some statisticians in early March, who "predicted" 10's of millions will die by this virus by June. Based on the sample size they used of people who were tested. But that sample is hugely skewed, because most countries are only testing people who have travel history or are already showing symptoms.
So if in a sample of 100,000 people who got tested, and 80,000 of those people had travel history or were showing symptoms or did come in contact with a positive case, If 10,000 of those resulted as positive case, we can't use same 10% rate for whole population.
[QUOTE=Lefeu;2443004]My understanding is that scientifically one is supposed to test a sample, then derive a forecast for the general population. For example if 10% of the sample test positive, you would then assume 10% of the general population would be positive. At least, that's what I remember from the statistical courses I took in college, many years ago.[/QUOTE]Most Covid-19 infections are mild or asymptomatic and in the absence of testing are never counted. Testing in Thailand is low (1,400 per M) and as a consequence the true rate of infection is simply unknown.
That said the number of deaths of those diagnosed with the virus and hospitalized I believe is accurate and being relatively low is good news.
But even there I do wonder if deaths in the villages and small towns of older people with existing chronic underlying health conditions such as diabetes or hypertension whether hospitalized or not were ever tested. Even in some western countries deaths at home and in care facilities from the virus are not counted in the official stats.
Being positive, it does seem we are either near the top or over the peak of new infections and getting closer to whatever the new normal looks like.
Will be interesting to see what changes if any there will be in P4P, in availability, in quality of providers, in service and changes in where it is accessed.
I have been confined to Paris at home since mid March. I had to cancel a trip to Pattaya in March and I had to leave for the Philippines yesterday. I have other trips to Pattaya planned in May, June and July but I don't know if I will be able to leave. I wanted to thank everyone who posts messages or videos from Thailand or the Philippines at the moment to inform about what's going on at the moment and also about the travel conditions.
I am also quite furious with the incompetence, the lies and the lack of preparation of all French governments since 10 years. France is the most taxed country in the world and we supposedly had the best medicine. The result is that we are managing this crisis by confining people like in the Middle Ages. It's just shame. We will draw the conclusions from this enormous failure later but it makes you want to bring out the guillotine. This era will be pivotal. It will accelerate the pre-eminence of Asia over the West.
I just learned that my Air France flight for May to Bangkok had just been canceled.
[QUOTE=Pimpampoumpipo;2443503]I have been confined to Paris at home since mid March. I had to cancel a trip to Pattaya in March and I had to leave for the Philippines yesterday. I have other trips to Pattaya planned in May, June and July but I don't know if I will be able to leave. I wanted to thank everyone who posts messages or videos from Thailand or the Philippines at the moment to inform about what's going on at the moment and also about the travel conditions.
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I just learned that my Air France flight for May to Bangkok had just been canceled.[/QUOTE]I do not bank on any semblance of nightlife being restored in Thailand in May.
[QUOTE=Franciscass;2443013]...
Even in some western countries deaths at home and in care facilities from the virus are not counted in the official stats....
[/QUOTE]Quite the reverse in some countries like France (from what I've been told) and Belgium (according to the article below, if you can read French).
[URL]https://www.7sur7.be/dossier-coronavirus/la-belgique-est-elle-vraiment-le-deuxieme-pays-le-plus-affecte-au-monde~a1c773ff/[/URL]
Belgium says they're counting ALL deaths in old people's homes as Covid deaths irrespective of the cause of death. This is official policy, not some shortcoming in the counting process.
Then you wonder why people come up with conspiracy theories.
[QUOTE=XXL;2443590]I do not bank on any semblance of nightlife being restored in Thailand in May.
Quite the reverse in some countries like France (from what I've been told) and Belgium (according to the article below, if you can read French).
[URL]https://www.7sur7.be/dossier-coronavirus/la-belgique-est-elle-vraiment-le-deuxieme-pays-le-plus-affecte-au-monde~a1c773ff/[/URL]
Belgium says they're counting ALL deaths in old people's homes as Covid deaths irrespective of the cause of death. This is official policy, not some shortcoming in the counting process.
Then you wonder why people come up with conspiracy theories.[/QUOTE]I am come to the conclusion that people believe what they want to believe and follows their ideological leanings. Right wing versus liberal, xenophobic versus open-minded and so on.
They choose their TV, radio, websites, newspapers, politicians not on their reputation for truth but on what validates their innate beliefs.
An excerpt from a very recent article in the Wall Street Journal which even after Murdoch's take over still retains its journalistic reputation.
"Newly published figures show deaths linked to the new corona virus in the you. K. Have far exceeded preliminary estimates, adding to a growing body of evidence across Europe that closely watched daily death tallies don't reveal the virus's true toll.
Behind the discrepancy are lags in recording some deaths that can stretch to a week or more, as well as deaths in nursing homes and other non-hospital settings that aren't normally captured by rapid-fire estimates used to track the pandemic".
But who knows for sure, maybe just another conspiracy.
[QUOTE=XXL;2443590]I do not bank on any semblance of nightlife being restored in Thailand in May.[/QUOTE]NightWish chick whose crib I went to last night said they would open up on May 1. I laughed at her. She said the owner had the paper from the government. I said they might have a paper but that does not mean shit. I told her like Michael Jackson told Paul McCartney: You keep dreaming. I don't belieeeeve it.
[QUOTE=MrEnternational;2443611]NightWish chick whose crib I went to last night said they would open up on May 1. I laughed at her. She said the owner had the paper from the government. I said they might have a paper but that does not mean shit. I told her like Michael Jackson told Paul McCartney: You keep dreaming. I don't belieeeeve it.[/QUOTE]I believe they will open May 1st unless the daily reported cases go back to triple digits.
[QUOTE=HoustonPlayer;2443615]I believe they will open May 1st unless the daily reported cases go back to triple digits.[/QUOTE]Everything is possible but it's difficult to believe by the look of things in Pattaya right now. However, water may soon become Pattaya's main concern.
[QUOTE=Pimpampoumpipo;2443503]I am also quite furious with the incompetence, the lies and the lack of preparation of all French governments since 10 years. France is the most taxed country in the world and we supposedly had the best medicine. The result is that we are managing this crisis by confining people like in the Middle Ages. It's just shame. We will draw the conclusions from this enormous failure later but it makes you want to bring out the guillotine. This era will be pivotal.[/QUOTE]Nothing will change except they will put even more taxes.
These lockdowns came at a very good time for Hong Kong and France, protests were huge for months and nothing could stop them except that fucking virus.
Let's see how they can start again once these lockdowns are over.
[QUOTE=HoustonPlayer;2443615]I believe they will open May 1st unless the daily reported cases go back to triple digits.[/QUOTE]Perhaps the activity will restart in Thailand on May 1. I don't know.
Still, the request must also be there. Today Shengen area is closed until further notice (rumors says until September), China fears a second wave, Singapore and Taiwan despite exemplary management of the crisis note an upsurge of new cases and those of the USA continue their exponential curve. These are just a few examples, almost all countries have closed their borders.
Under these conditions I doubt that commercial flights around the world can resume in May. If we can move again in June it will be a miracle. Maybe if we find a treatment by then and that we can find it everywhere in the world (hope gives life).
[QUOTE=MrEnternational;2443611]NightWish chick whose crib I went to last night said they would open up on May 1. I laughed at her. She said the owner had the paper from the government. I said they might have a paper but that does not mean shit. I told her like Michael Jackson told Paul McCartney: You keep dreaming. I don't belieeeeve it.[/QUOTE]Rumors sometimes they are just ridiculous but I think they will start to open things up on the 1st of May? When it comes to the Nightwish group the owner is pretty connected with the BIB in Pattaya. I've been hearing stuff along that line along with what I see globally talked about that things will open what is allowed is anyone guess but they will continue many of the CDC guidelines like " social distance " mask, take your temperature and alcohol gel? I heard from a Thai today a few suggestions that would make your eyes roll? Okay To have cockfights, bird singer contest, massages even Softball is on the list?
Every expert opinion I've heard when it opens expect the numbers to go up a bit (consider normal) but they will need to flatten or drop for it to continue.
[QUOTE=MrEnternational;2443611]NightWish chick whose crib I went to last night said they would open up on May 1. I laughed at her. She said the owner had the paper from the government. I said they might have a paper but that does not mean shit. I told her like Michael Jackson told Paul McCartney: You keep dreaming. I don't belieeeeve it.[/QUOTE]Rumors sometimes they are just ridiculous but I think they will start to open things up on the 1st of May? When it comes to the Nightwish group the owner is pretty connected with the BIB in Pattaya. I've been hearing stuff along that line along with what I see globally talked about that things will open what is allowed is anyone guess but they will continue many of the CDC guidelines like " social distance " mask, take your temperature and alcohol gel? I heard from a Thai today a few suggestions that would make your eyes roll? Okay To have cockfights, bird singer contest, massages even Softball is on the list?
Every expert opinion I've heard when it opens expect the numbers to go up a bit (consider normal) but they will need to flatten or drop for it to continue. As for the nightlife I see the GoGos being hit the most I'll be surprised 30% ever open again. I see BeerBars, massages and Gentlemen clubs doing much better?
[QUOTE=Pimpampoumpipo;2443659]Still, the request must also be there..[/QUOTE]Sorry for the translation. I meant "demand". I think you corrected by yourself.