General Reports

It's a balance between lives lost and livelihoods. No matter when a country begins to lift restrictions the virus will continue to be infectious and deadly and people will get sick and some will die. The experts say the smart time to ease is when the infections rate drops below 1 that means each infected persons infects less than one other. Until this happens the virus is not sufficiently contained. The key to knowing when this is happening is testing, something with the exception of a few countries is woefully inadequate particularly in the US and UK. The metric to know how good testing is is not many tests but how many tests per capita. When to reopen should be left to science and health experts like Dr Fauci in the US and not to populist politicians who care more about being reelected that the well being of the citizenry and who were criminally negligent in downplaying the virus when it first reared it's ugly head.

[QUOTE=NattyBumpo;2444721]Take note of Sweden's approach. They are the only advanced Western Nation that did not go into lockdown. Their government trusted their people to act rationally and in their own best interests. It may have worked.[/QUOTE]Sweden's Covid deaths 1,540 (15.1 deaths per 100 k of population). Compare this to the neighbours:

Norway 165 deaths (3. 1 / 100 k).

Finland 94 deaths (1. 7 / 100 k).

Denmark 355 deaths (6. 1 / 100 k).

Source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center [URL]https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality[/URL].

Does it really look like it worked?

[QUOTE=GettingFedUp;2444733]Sweden's Covid deaths 1,540 (15.1 deaths per 100 k of population). Compare this to the neighbours:

Norway 165 deaths (3. 1 / 100 k).

Finland 94 deaths (1. 7 / 100 k).

Denmark 355 deaths (6. 1 / 100 k).

Source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center [URL]https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality[/URL].

Does it really look like it worked?[/QUOTE]There is no way to know if it worked or not yet. By completely locking a country down, they are prolonging the spread of the virus. Eventually it will spread. Sweden will build up an immune herd faster than these other countries.

The theory is that in the end, they will all be about equal with the exception being that the countries that went into lockdown destroyed their economies.

With all the talk on the forum lately I just have one contribution as to how things will pan out. Those with a healthy $ availability will flourish, those with minimal $ will flounder. Additionally, things will eventually get back to normal (whatever that is) but it will take some time.

There are all kinds of predictions of what to expect in terms of this epidemic. Some say that the summer will bring about a "burning out" of the virus and the immunities built up by those already infected. Others say that a resurgence will bring about an autumn outbreak that will mimic the "Spanish Flu" that will kill even more people. Speculation of an effective vaccine being produced will save humanity before the end of the year.

All this uncertainty is what is driving the economic decisions on the stock markets around the world and the business decisions by small business owners who will have to decide whether to call it quits or try to stick it out. All governments around the world either understand these facts and make the best decisions possible. Those that fail to comprehend these facts will make decisions that will have disastrous effects on their respective economies and citizens. That is how the real world works. What happens in Thailand is heavily dependent on the decisions that this government makes in the next 10 months. Add to the mix of the situation is how the rest of Southeast Asia handles their own situations. If no man is an island, then even more so for the communities and countries that make up the nations of the world.

So what is the point I am trying to make? It is going to be a wild ride politically and economically for every person on the planet. People will have to live with the uncertainty until the "war" with this virus is won or loss. A "win" is a quick discovery of a vaccine. That will be like the polio vaccine in the 1950's. The scientists who develop the first effective vaccine will be the Jonas Salk of this era. A "loss" would be a resurgence this fall that kills tens of millions like the "Spanish Flu".

[QUOTE=GettingFedUp;2444727]Stickman weekly makes some interesting points on the future of the bar sector of the scene. He reports:

1 - Seven NEP bars have quit and handed back the keys already. They are London Calling (actually closed pre-Covid), Mandarin (closed pre-lockdown), Lollipop, and all four Rainbow bars. He also questions how many other bars can keep paying the rent whilst closed, and will landlords seek to re-purpose their portfolio of premises to non-P4 P and "persuade" those bars that still operate to surrender their leases?

2 - One bar owner has openly admitted that even if restrictions are relaxed in May he won't be opening because the custom just won't be there. The potential business from Expats only would not cover the additional costs (staff, utilities, etc.) of opening.

3 - For those hoping for an influx of herds of young office girls desperate to make the rent having been laid off, think again. By far the majority would go down the Thai P4 P scene rather than the farang / East Asian.[/QUOTE]Yep, it isn't going to be pretty for mongers in LOS. I would also imagine that the gov along with many Thais would love to get rid of the what they consider eyesores, and that is the GoGos and the farang P4 P scene. Especially in the capital city. GoGo bars are an easy target as are the oily massage parlors. Soapies have been dead in the water for years as Thai businessmen no longer frequent them. The gov will use this as a way to finally rid BKK of the sexpat and sex tourist. Regulations will be put in place that make it impossible for many of these places to re-open, even if they can withstand the lockdown financially. The scene will migrate online even more and as you stated the gals that can attract local men will have nothing to do with foreigners. The future for foreign P4 P in Thailand, Bangkok especially, is pretty bleak. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves. As far as P4 P goes, I would imagine Angeles City and Jakarta will see few changes coming out of this. HK will be the same as well.

[QUOTE=Rodwint2;2444786] Some say that the summer will bring about a "burning out" of the virus and the immunities built up by those already infected.[/QUOTE]Which I don't get because it is already hot in places like Brazil and Philippines. How is it behaving there?

[QUOTE=GettingFedUp;2444733]Sweden's Covid deaths 1,540 (15.1 deaths per 100 k of population). Compare this to the neighbours:

Norway 165 deaths (3. 1 / 100 k).

Finland 94 deaths (1. 7 / 100 k).

Denmark 355 deaths (6. 1 / 100 k).

Source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center [URL]https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality[/URL].

Does it really look like it worked?[/QUOTE]I have always admired the Swedish social model and to be honest I am surprised at their laissez faire approach.

I agree with you.

If using how many people die from the virus as the yardstick, when compared to similar countries the data shows Sweden has failed and continues to fail with no end in sight.

Covid 19 is highly contagious and until either an effective therapy or a vaccine is found if deaths are to be minimized transmission has to be effectively contained. This can only be done by social distancing, testing and the other measures in place most everywhere else.

[QUOTE=LittleBigMan;2444716]today there is no way things can be shut down until a vaccine is found.[/QUOTE]Until a vaccine is found, a treatment designed specifically for the coronavirus or collective immunity (impossible to obtain with the lockdown).

So not for many months. Maybe at least 1 year.

Difficult for world economies to wait until then because it will be necessary to choose between contracting the coronavirus and to die of hunger in particular in the emerging economies.

We will have to live and return to our occupations with this active virus for several months I think. No doubt with new behaviors such as social distancing or the wearing of masks.

[QUOTE=Goatscrot;2444791]I would also imagine that the gov along with many Thais would love to get rid of the what they consider eyesores, and that is the GoGos and the farang P4 P scene.[/QUOTE]Admittedly. But it will also be necessary for the girls to stop being forced to provide for the needs of their entire family and for the men to start working in the provinces. A production of local goods or services will have to manage to emerge a middle class. This is not excluded of course but not for some time and certainly not in a collapsed and recessionary global economy.

On the other hand, the cultural and moral traditions in South East Asia are not as punitive regarding P4P as those of the Christian West.

I don't know if Gogos bars will survive but P4 P still has a bright future, it may have to reinvent itself.

[QUOTE=MrEnternational;2444808]Which I don't get because it is already hot in places like Brazil and Philippines. How is it behaving there?[/QUOTE][URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/southeast-asia-could-be-the-next-coronavirus-hot-spot-these-charts-show-why.html[/URL]

Poor countries like Mexico, PI and Brazil are in denial. Not even reporting infections or death rates accurately. They don't care primarily because they have no money to treat any sick person anyway. One of the reasons the US has totally shut down border with Mexico. Only commercial traffic coming through.

[QUOTE=Stykler;2444758]......Those with a healthy $ availability will flourish, those with minimal $ will flounder......[/QUOTE]Same same as before covid?

[QUOTE=GettingFedUp;2444733]Sweden's Covid deaths 1,540 (15.1 deaths per 100 k of population). Compare this to the neighbours:

Norway 165 deaths (3. 1 / 100 k).

Finland 94 deaths (1. 7 / 100 k).

Denmark 355 deaths (6. 1 / 100 k).

Source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center [URL]https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality[/URL].

Does it really look like it worked?[/QUOTE]These comparisons are not sufficient unless you know the percentage of the population that has been exposed to the virus. If you assume that 50% of the population in Sweeden has been exposed because of their limited lockdonwn, then you would expect the death toll to eventually double when everyone has been exposed. The more draconian the quarantine, the fewer peope exposed, so the lower the current death rate per 100 K. However, the death rate will go up as all people eventually get exposed. So say Denmark has only 10% of its people exposed, with 355 deaths. At 100% exposure, you would expect 3555 deaths, comparable to Sweeden. Since you cannot get immuniity (absent a vaccine) without exposure to the virus, all the quarantineing does is stretch out the deaths and not overwhelm the medical system, not reduce the number of total deaths.

[QUOTE=Goatscrot;2444791]The future for foreign P4 P in Thailand, Bangkok especially, is pretty bleak. [/QUOTE]Bangkok Post put the following article up a couple of hours ago [URL]https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1903640/ministry-floats-ideas-on-exit-strategy[/URL].

Some excerpts:

"At a joint meeting between ministry officials and deans of faculties of medicine on how to ease the lockdown, all agreed some measures have to be relaxed although a return to pre-crisis normality is out of the question, said Kamnuan Ungchusak, an adviser to the Disease Control Department and to the public health minister on the Covid-19 situation".

"High-risk businesses will not be allowed to open at this early stage. Medium-risk businesses, which manage to minimise risks, can reopen, he said. He cited as examples of medium-risk businesses hair salons, eateries and department stores".

"he admitted high-risk businesses, such as bars, karaokes, entertainment places and gambling dens, would have to be closed for a long time".

"However, if the situation warrants closures of more businesses in the future, the order will not be universal and apply only to problematic places".

"However, not all 77 provinces will go ahead at the same pace. They will be allowed to reopen based on risks and by area".

"Based on the April 14 data, Dr Kamnuan said, 32 provinces are free of infections. "So 3-4 of these provinces may be opened first by the end of April. If the situation is under control, another 38 provinces with low numbers of cases will be reopened in the following two weeks, or in May. The seven provinces where infections slowly spread but with no large outbreaks will be reopened in June".

My observation. Bangkok, Chonburi (including Pattaya) and Phuket are highly unlikely to be among the circa 50 provinces earmarked for partial reopening in the next couple of months. Expect more gogos and bars to be handing back the keys to their landlords in the near future.

[QUOTE=JimmyBoy99;2444877]These comparisons are not sufficient unless you know the percentage of the population that has been exposed to the virus. If you assume...[/QUOTE]But we don't know the proportion of the populations exposed. So the comparison with the neighbours whilst flawed is the best available, particularly as they have similar climate. For a similar coronavirus (HCV229 E), which is one of the causes of the common cold, climate (both temperature and relative humidity) was found to be a significant driver of the half life of the virus in the environment (Source: US National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health).

You then make all sorts of unsupported assumptions about proportion exposed in order to justify your initial conjecture. 68.72% of all statistics are completely made up in order to justify an opinion rather than to support a fact (Source: I just made it up to show how easy it is to quote numbers which have no basis in reality).

[QUOTE=JimmyBoy99;2444877]Since you cannot get immuniity (absent a vaccine) without exposure to the virus,[/QUOTE]You obviously missed the caution from the World Health Organisation that there is no evidence yet that previous exposure ensures future immunity (Widely reported BBC / CNBC / Bloomberg to name a few as part of a warning of future over reliance on antibody tests).

[QUOTE=JimmyBoy99;2444877] all the quarantineing does is stretch out the deaths and not overwhelm the medical system, not reduce the number of total deaths.[/QUOTE]But the whole idea of not overwhelming the medical system is so that equipment, staff and facilities are available for those patients who would die without them but might be saved with them. There is a big difference between "No ventilator, will die" and "Yes ventilator, might die or might survive".

Finally, as this is a Thailand thread, it was reported that Bangkok had a total of 120 ICU beds which they hope to increase to 187 by the end of April and 292 by the end of May (Bangkok Post 15 April). This seems odd when the same article says that there are 4,955 ICU beds in the rest of the country. My guess is that the journalist has tapped an extra 5 on the rest of the country number and the total ICU beds for Thailand is well under 1,000. But just a guess, rather like JB99's percentages!