American Politics

[QUOTE=EihTooms;2785623]You mean "Keeps losing. On a regular basis" like Dems have won more votes than Repubs in all but one POTUS election since 1988, thirty-five years ago, except one and that one never would have squeaked into the Repub column either had it not been a blundering "Wartime President" who also lost the vote for his first term but was awarded the position by a Repub SCOTUS anyway?

I assume from your original whine that you were talking about Dems "losing" the actual support of Americans by their supposedly bad ideas and lack of connection with Americans and not just about "losing" due to an undemocratic Repub-advantaged rigged Electoral College system, right?

So please untwist my words and meaning and explain how Dems have "Kept losing" votes to Repubs "on a regular basis" since 1988. Or have you twisted the meaning of the words "losing" and "on a regular basis" to mean something more like "winning more than" and "way back before 1988"?[/QUOTE]The country is pretty darn evenly split. In the latest election in 2022, Republicans got 50.6% of the popular vote in House elections, compared to 47.8% for Democrats. Biden won the 2020 election with 51.3%, compared to 46.8% for Trump. And there are a lot of people, like me, who identify as Republicans and wouldn't vote for Trump for dogcatcher.

So what are you implying? That America is blue? That Democrats would win presidential elections by significant margins, say greater than 10 percentage points (e.g. 55% to 45%) if Republicans didn't cheat? Well that sounds a lot like Sidney Powell or Lin Wood.

BTW, you're cherry picking, and you're not even getting that right. Republicans actually won more votes than Democrats in two presidential elections since 1988. Your and Spidy's hands must be permanently died red, from picking cherries.

Please allow me to also cherry pick. Since 1980, Republican presidential candidates have won the majority of the vote in four elections and Democrats have won the majority in three. Furthermore, over that period, the average margin of victory in the popular vote by Republicans was 9.53%, compared to 5.93% for the Democrats.

[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin[/URL]

That said, granted, perhaps JustTK should have chosen different words. A better way to phrase the question would be why aren't Democrats kicking Republican's asses at the polls if you're right.

[QUOTE=Spidy;2785625]Study is a fancy way of saying you have more big cities that have elected Democrat mayors than Republican mayors and with that said, more Democrat mayors than Repub mayors, have all the headaches, trails and tribulations that come with big cities. Welcome to big cities in the USA.

No doubt, similar percentages of violent crime results of 80%, would be found for red mayors in large rural towns, if the study was undertaken to find [B] Mayoral Party Affiliation and Violent Crime Rates in Americas Most Populated Rural Towns and Communities[/B]" . Why, because Repubs have more rural mayors than Dems.[/QUOTE]That's just not true. I direct you again to this link.

[URL]https://www.jsr.org/index.php/path/article/download/1371/1108/7732[/URL]

Cities with Democratic mayors suffered violent crime at an 81% higher level than cities with Republican mayors for the 100 largest cities. Violent crime rates were higher in blue cities for the 20 most populated cities, the 21st through 50th largest cities, and the 51st to 100th largest cities.

[QUOTE=Spidy;2785625]Since when do mayors make gun control laws?[/QUOTE]Cities can't pass gun control laws? You have an awful lot of confidence in how gun laws can reduce crime rates.

[QUOTE=Spidy;2785634]Question is why is the "heavy lifting" left up to the Dems?

A better, question is, what are the Repubs doing to for better gun control laws? Or is it really just about catering to their "gun-toting" base, why THEY (Repubs) haven't done squat?

BTW, homicides are up 25% in the rural areas. That must account for the aforementioned "Firearms, type not stated", used in rural areas.

[b]Murder Rates Soar in Rural America[/b]
[url]https://www.wsj.com/story/murder-rates-soar-in-rural-america-bb431022[/url]

[b]Violent Crime in Rural Areas Rises Above U.S. Average[/b]
[url]https://thecrimereport.org/2018/05/14/rural-violent-crime-rate-rises-above-u-s-average/[/url][/QUOTE]Your first article describes a nationwide increase in violent crime during 2020, probably a result of the pandemic. Yes there was a 25% increase in homicides in rural levels. But the article also states there was a 30% increase in homicide rates in metropolitan levels, from a much higher level.

As to your second article, how many articles did you have to read to come up with that one year anomaly, in 2016? Go to the WSJ article your link is describing and look at the graph:

[URL]https://www.wsj.com/articles/nothing-but-you-and-the-cows-and-the-sirens-crime-tests-small-town-sheriffs-1526122800[/URL]

The graph shows violent crime rates are much lower in rural and suburban areas than urban areas for all years. From 2015 to 2016, the rate of violent crimes per 1,000 people for all categories jumps:

Rural: 14.5 to 21.5.

Suburban: 17.5 to 15.5.

Urban: 23 to 30.

Well, the numbers have come down. Here are the numbers for 2021, from the Department of Justice:

Urban: 24.5 victims per 1000 population.

Suburban: 16.5.

Rural: 11.1.

So the rate of violent crime in 2021 was 120% higher in urban areas than rural areas.

[URL]https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv21.pdf[/URL]

[QUOTE=Spidy;2785702][B]Republican-controlled states have higher murder rates than Democratic ones: study [/B]
[URL]https://news.yahoo.com/republican-controlled-states-have-higher-murder-rates-than-democratic-ones-study-212137750.html[/URL]

The study data: [URL]https://thirdway.imgix.net/downloads/the-red-state-murder-problem/State-Murder-Rates-Data.xlsx[/URL].

Third wave found despite the media narrative and spin, it is the red states with a higher murder rate. "In 2020, per capita murder rates were 40% higher in states won by Donald Trump than those won by Joe Biden. " [URL]https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-red-state-murder-problem [/URL].

A year later a follow up report in, January of 2023, proving it wasn't just an anomaly, of couple of years and upward projection murder rate remained higher in red states.

So what are Republicans, doing about the murder problem in their states?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=PVMonger;2785735]What they will do is say that it is the "Dem-run cities" that are the problem.

What they will [B]ignore[/B] is the fact that even if the murders from the "blue cities" in those "red states" are removed, the overall "gap" remained. In other words, if "red states" had a "murder rate problem", removing the murders from "blue cities" in those "red states" still showed that "red states" had higher murder rates than "blue states". "Over the course of the full 21 years between 2000 and 2020, the Red State murder rate was still 12% higher than the Blue State murder rate, even when murders in the largest cities in those red states were removed. And the murder rate was still higher in 18 of 21 years. " [URL]https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem[/URL].

Then, of course, they will disparage the link I posted because, well, that's what they do.[/QUOTE]I didn't disparage it before PVMonger. I was kind and gentle:

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2781312]Are you referring to homicides, specifically the Third Way piece that came out in 2022? If so, the correct answer is that the weighted average homicide rate in blue cities or counties is higher than in red cities or counties, while the average rate in red states is higher than in blue states. But looking at the data by state is very deceiving. You've been misled by the same type of faulty analysis that has enabled antivaxxers to correctly state that the population in Israel and parts of the United Kingdom who are vaccinated die at higher rates from COVID than the unvaccinated.

You have to segment the data to see the truth. In the case of homicide rates, you need to segment by county or city. In the case of the vaccine, it's by age group. When you do that, you'll see that homicide rates overall are higher in counties and cities controlled by Democrats, and that the COVID vaccine is effective in preventing severe disease across all age groups.

If you're interested, this effect is called Simpson's Paradox. This explains it in more detail.

[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox[/URL][/QUOTE]But if it's disparagement you want, it's disparagement you shall get. While I may differ with Elvis and others here on COVID issues, none have attempted to argue with me about Simpson's Paradox as it relates to vaccine data. You guys keep coming back to the same fallacies. Are you really that different from those who believe Venezuela controls Dominion voting machines and the COVID vaccines have killed tens of millions, when it comes to separating reality from bull shit?

Policing is done at the local level. All the "state police" do where I live is hand out traffic tickets.

PVMonger, I shall again offer your the Tiny Triple Combo. A fine tequila, a fine meal, and a fine time in an estetica masculina. This challenge will take a lot more work, but is probably doable with DOJ or FBI and MIT Election Lab data. Determine which presidential candidate won in 2020 in each county. So you'll have a list of "red" counties and "blue" counties. Determine the total number of homicides in 2019 or 2021 (to avoid COVID effect) in each of the red counties and each of the blue counties. Sum them. Divide by the total population of red and blue counties respectively. If the homicide rate for the red counties is greater than the blue counties, you win the Tiny Triple Combo. Spidy, the offer is open to you too.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2785769]
That said, granted, perhaps JustTK should have chosen different words. A better way to phrase the question would be why aren't Democrats kicking Republican's asses at the polls if you're right.[/QUOTE]This reminded me of the infamous Crooked Hillary "why aren't I 50 points ahead?" clip, delivered with her trademark blend of arrogance, entitlement and unlikability. Ah, that election was wonderful: so full of fun and hope, in the days before big tech censorship and mail-in rigging.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2785787]I didn't disparage it before PVMonger. I was kind and gentle:

But if it's disparagement you want, it's disparagement you shall get. While I may differ with Elvis and others here on COVID issues, none have attempted to argue with me about Simpson's Paradox as it relates to vaccine data. You guys keep coming back to the same fallacies. Are you really that different from those who believe Venezuela controls Dominion voting machines and the COVID vaccines have killed tens of millions, when it comes to separating reality from bull shit?

Policing is done at the local level. All the "state police" do where I live is hand out traffic tickets.

PVMonger, I shall again offer your the Tiny Triple Combo. A fine tequila, a fine meal, and a fine time in an estetica masculina. This challenge will take a lot more work, but is probably doable with DOJ or FBI and MIT Election Lab data. Determine which presidential candidate won in 2020 in each county. So you'll have a list of "red" counties and "blue" counties. Determine the total number of homicides in 2019 or 2021 (to avoid COVID effect) in each of the red counties and each of the blue counties. Sum them. Divide by the total population of red and blue counties respectively. If the homicide rate for the red counties is greater than the blue counties, you win the Tiny Triple Combo. Spidy, the offer is open to you too.[/QUOTE]PVMonger and his obfuscatory bullshit pwned again. Tiny 12, you are doing God's work sir.

[QUOTE=PVMonger;2785278]You still don't get it, do you?.[/QUOTE]No, you don't.

[QUOTE=PVMonger;2785278]Even you can't be dense enough to believe that obstructing the government for a year is equal to turning over found records immediately. To be sure, both "mishandled" documents. But when Donnie the Dumbass mishandled them, he [B]obstructed[/B] the governments efforts to get the documents returned and ignored a subpoena[/QUOTE]Your problem is that you think ignoring a subpoena is obstruction. It is not. Compliance with subpoenas is voluntary. You are wrongly saying not complying with them is obstruction.

If the government wanted the subpoenaed documents, you go to court and make your case. Thing is if you go this route, it is going to take a long time and well it should. And you are going to have to take on the debate with regards to the president's right to declassify. If document recovery was what was important versus sticking it to Trump, this is the course that should have been taken.

If the subpoena was upheld by the courts and Trump refused to release the records, THEN it would have been correct to use a SWAT team and do a raid. How many times have I said this and you ignored it?

As for Biden, and this statement, "We found a handful of documents were filed in the wrong place," it does not fucking matter. The law was broken. Period. Intent does not fucking matter.

In fact, when it comes to the letter of the law, Trump can argue he could have declassified the classified documents, and Biden cannot.

So at the end of the day, you Democratic douches are making new laws again. With classified documents, intent matters. And with subpoenas, they are not voluntary and have to be followed.

In my case, unless there were really serious national security issues with these documents, which I doubt in either case was true, then I do not want either prosecuted but not you. IMO It is a stupid law that allows the deep state too much power. But with a douche like you, Trump should be prosecuted to the fullest extent to the law while the Department of Injustice should just let Biden go right? If I am wrong, please correct me.

In other words, laws are for Republicans but Democrats can break them as long as they claim their intentions are pure because Republicans bad and Democrats good right?

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2785779]Your first article describes a nationwide increase in violent crime during 2020, probably a result of the pandemic. Yes there was a 25% increase in homicides in rural levels. But the article also states there was a 30% increase in homicide rates in metropolitan levels, from a much higher level.

As to your second article, how many articles did you have to read to come up with that one year anomaly, in 2016? Go to the WSJ article your link is describing and look at the graph:

[URL]https://www.wsj.com/articles/nothing-but-you-and-the-cows-and-the-sirens-crime-tests-small-town-sheriffs-1526122800[/URL]

The graph shows violent crime rates are much lower in rural and suburban areas than urban areas for all years. From 2015 to 2016, the rate of violent crimes per 1,000 people for all categories jumps:

Rural: 14.5 to 21.5.

Suburban: 17.5 to 15.5.

Urban: 23 to 30.

Well, the numbers have come down. Here are the numbers for 2021, from the Department of Justice:

Urban: 24.5 victims per 1000 population.

Suburban: 16.5.

Rural: 11.1.

So the rate of violent crime in 2021 was 120% higher in urban areas than rural areas.

[URL]https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv21.pdf[/URL][/QUOTE]Another good post.

Everyone living in reality knows that violent crime is massively higher in black urban areas.

These dem douche leftists who attempt to deny it with idiotic twisted arguments are like the pro-tranny lobby who say "I know this woman who is 6 feet tall, or that woman who can bench 200 pounds, therefore there is no difference between men and women".

Or like cutting a highlight reel of every Tom Brady interception and sack, then showing it to people and trying to argue it proves he's a terrible quarterback.

BTW thanks for the memories Tom the GOAT. A shining example of old school American manhood for us all to look up to.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2785768][URL]https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD006207.pub6/full[/URL]

Compared with wearing no mask in the community studies only, wearing a mask may make little to no difference in how many people caught a flu like illness / COVID like illness (9 studies; 276,917 people); and probably makes little or no difference in how many people have flu / COVID confirmed by a laboratory test (6 studies; 13,919 people). Unwanted effects were rarely reported; discomfort was mentioned.

N95/ P2 respirators.

Four studies were in healthcare workers, and one small study was in the community. Compared with wearing medical or surgical masks, wearing N95/ P2 respirators probably makes little to no difference in how many people have confirmed flu (5 studies; 8407 people); and may make little to no difference in how many people catch a flu‐like illness (5 studies; 8407 people), or respiratory illness (3 studies; 7799 people). Unwanted effects were not well reported; discomfort was mentioned.

Following a hand hygiene programme may reduce the number of people who catch a respiratory or flu‐like illness, or have confirmed flu, compared with people not following such a programme (19 studies; 71,210 people), although this effect was not confirmed as statistically significant reduction when ILI and laboratory confirmed ILI were analysed separately. Few studies measured unwanted effects; skin irritation in people using hand sanitiser was mentioned.

This was referenced in the zero hedge article.

And a Tweet was referenced to a guy who is pushing all the right buttons on Covid and he asks:

[URL]https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1618321365089800192[/URL].[/QUOTE]Great forensic post Elvis.

It is coming out now how utterly destructive and wrongheaded the covid scamdemic was on so many levels.

The masks didn't work, the vaccines didn't work, the lockdowns didn't work.

Or rather, they didn't work in their stated aims. What they did do was destroy centuries-old liberties, cripple businesses and the middle class, add trillions to the debt, retard kids' development, and lead to an awful lot of #DiedSuddenly. Which was perhaps the intention all along.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2785787]I didn't disparage it before PVMonger. I was kind and gentle:

But if it's disparagement you want, it's disparagement you shall get. While I may differ with Elvis and others here on COVID issues, none have attempted to argue with me about Simpson's Paradox as it relates to vaccine data. You guys keep coming back to the same fallacies. Are you really that different from those who believe Venezuela controls Dominion voting machines and the COVID vaccines have killed tens of millions, when it comes to separating reality from bull shit?

Policing is done at the local level. All the "state police" do where I live is hand out traffic tickets.

PVMonger, I shall again offer your the Tiny Triple Combo. A fine tequila, a fine meal, and a fine time in an estetica masculina. This challenge will take a lot more work, but is probably doable with DOJ or FBI and MIT Election Lab data. Determine which presidential candidate won in 2020 in each county. So you'll have a list of "red" counties and "blue" counties. Determine the total number of homicides in 2019 or 2021 (to avoid COVID effect) in each of the red counties and each of the blue counties. Sum them. Divide by the total population of red and blue counties respectively. If the homicide rate for the red counties is greater than the blue counties, you win the Tiny Triple Combo. Spidy, the offer is open to you too.[/QUOTE]If you have done all that work, fine. Why not simply publish it here so that we all can see it? But you won't because you haven't done the work. You simply make up stuff and challenge others to do what you won't or can't do.

By the way, the link I published here was valid. They took "red states", stripped out the murders in the largest "blue city" in that state and found that the murder rate of the state was high. What you want to do with your challenge is to segregate the data down to the county level. What that dataset will show, of course, is that virtually to county, blue counties are urban and have a higher crime rate than red counties which are primarily rural. Hell, why don't you take the data all the way down to the block? I'll bet you'd find that some blocks have higher murder rates than others, even in red counties.

If you have a problem with the study I posted, fine. But if you have a problem with it, simply do your own challenge and post the results here. I'll wait.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2785773]That's just not true. I direct you again to this link.

[URL]https://www.jsr.org/index.php/path/article/download/1371/1108/7732[/URL]

Cities with Democratic mayors suffered violent crime at an 81% higher level than cities with Republican mayors for the 100 largest cities. Violent crime rates were higher in blue cities for the 20 most populated cities, the 21st through 50th largest cities, and the 51st to 100th largest cities.

Cities can't pass gun control laws? You have an awful lot of confidence in how gun laws can reduce crime rates.[/QUOTE]Chicago has some of the most restrictive anti-gun laws in America. They do nothing to stop black people shooting each other en masse every week.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2785769]The country is pretty darn evenly split. In the latest election in 2022, Republicans got 50.6% of the popular vote in House elections, compared to 47.8% for Democrats. Biden won the 2020 election with 51.3%, compared to 46.8% for Trump. And there are a lot of people, like me, who identify as Republicans and wouldn't vote for Trump for dogcatcher.

So what are you implying? That America is blue? That Democrats would win presidential elections by significant margins, say greater than 10 percentage points (e.g. 55% to 45%) if Republicans didn't cheat? Well that sounds a lot like Sidney Powell or Lin Wood.

BTW, you're cherry picking, and you're not even getting that right. Republicans actually won more votes than Democrats in two presidential elections since 1988. Your and Spidy's hands must be permanently died red, from picking cherries.

Please allow me to also cherry pick. Since 1980, Republican presidential candidates have won the majority of the vote in four elections and Democrats have won the majority in three. Furthermore, over that period, the average margin of victory in the popular vote by Republicans was 9.53%, compared to 5.93% for the Democrats.

[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin[/URL]

That said, granted, perhaps JustTK should have chosen different words. A better way to phrase the question would be why aren't Democrats kicking Republican's asses at the polls if you're right.[/QUOTE]The "since 1980" part of your post stirred interest and I looked at your link. It appears that Reagan's victory in 1984, with a margin of almost 17 million votes, have skewed the margin of victory numbers BY A LOT.

Also, since 1980 Republicans have won the majority of the vote in 1980,1984 and 1988 and 2004. That's 4. Democrats won the majority of the votes in 1992,1996, 2004,2008 and 2020. That's 5.

And the only candidates to win the EC and loose the popular vote were W and Donnie the Dumbass. Since 1888, that is.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2785769]The country is pretty darn evenly split. In the latest election in 2022, Republicans got 50.6% of the popular vote in House elections, compared to 47.8% for Democrats. Biden won the 2020 election with 51.3%, compared to 46.8% for Trump. And there are a lot of people, like me, who identify as Republicans and wouldn't vote for Trump for dogcatcher.

So what are you implying? That America is blue? That Democrats would win presidential elections by significant margins, say greater than 10 percentage points (e.g. 55% to 45%) if Republicans didn't cheat? Well that sounds a lot like Sidney Powell or Lin Wood.

BTW, you're cherry picking, and you're not even getting that right. Republicans actually won more votes than Democrats in two presidential elections since 1988. Your and Spidy's hands must be permanently died red, from picking cherries.

Please allow me to also cherry pick. Since 1980, Republican presidential candidates have won the majority of the vote in four elections and Democrats have won the majority in three. Furthermore, over that period, the average margin of victory in the popular vote by Republicans was 9.53%, compared to 5.93% for the Democrats.

[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin[/URL]

That said, granted, perhaps JustTK should have chosen different words. A better way to phrase the question would be why aren't Democrats kicking Republican's asses at the polls if you're right.[/QUOTE]The "since 1980" part of your post stirred interest and I looked at your link. It appears that Reagan's victory in 1984, with a margin of almost 17 million votes, have skewed the margin of victory numbers BY A LOT.

Also, since 1980 Republicans have won the majority of the vote in 1980,1984 and 1988 and 2004. That's 4. Democrats won the majority of the votes in 1992,1996, 2004,2008 and 2020. That's 5. I may not be looking at the same numbers but since vote majorities are negative numbers if they are less, maybe not.

And the only candidates to win the EC and loose the popular vote were W and Donnie the Dumbass. Since 1888, that is.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2785787]PVMonger, I shall again offer your the Tiny Triple Combo. A fine tequila, a fine meal, and a fine time in an estetica masculina. This challenge will take a lot more work, but is probably doable with DOJ or FBI and MIT Election Lab data. Determine which presidential candidate won in 2020 in each county. So you'll have a list of "red" counties and "blue" counties. Determine the total number of homicides in 2019 or 2021 (to avoid COVID effect) in each of the red counties and each of the blue counties. Sum them. Divide by the total population of red and blue counties respectively. If the homicide rate for the red counties is greater than the blue counties, you win the Tiny Triple Combo. Spidy, the offer is open to you too.[/QUOTE]As I don't want you gentlemen to waste a huge amount of time on a losing proposition, here are the ten counties in the USA with the highest homicide rates in 2017, from the source linked below, and the margin by which Biden won each in 2020.

1. Orleans Parish, Louisiana 68.2%.

2. Coahoma County, Mississippi 42.9%.

3. Phillips County, Arkansas 19.3%.

4. tie St. Louis City, Missouri 66.2%.

4. tie Baltimore City, Maryland 76.6%.

6. Petersburg, Virginia 76.5%.

7. tie Macon County, Alabama 63.8%.

7. tie Washington, D.C. 86.7%.

9. Washington County, Mississippi 39.6%.

9. Dallas County, Alabama 37.5%.

[URL]https://www.police1.com/ambush/articles/10-us-counties-with-the-highest-murder-rate-kerWgaEUmxJkn74J/[/URL]

Based on the list above, there are definitely counties with small populations out there run by Democrats that are about as dangerous as any of the blue cities. And yes, in the top 10 list, those counties are mostly in red states. Remember Simpson's Paradox.

So yes indeed PVMonger, if you remove the largest cities in places like Mississippi and Alabama, the homicide rate in those states will probably still be higher than average for the USA because of all the murders in blue counties there.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2785768]I bet half the forum here STILL thinks masks work.[/QUOTE]Yeah, I do. I read the first link, and it wasn't convincing. They only have low to moderate confidence in their conclusions, and their data is mostly drawn from influenza studies. You may recall that the CDC's and Fauci's reason for telling us masks weren't useful initially was because that's what the influenza studies indicated. OK, yes the reason probably really was they didn't want the public using masks while there was a shortage among health care workers. And they figured the public could just stay home and not work or go to school anyway, haha. Anyway, the reading I did a couple of years ago indicated good quality masks worn correctly did help prevent COVID 19 and SARS transmission.

I will continue to wear KN95 masks when in crowded settings where nobody knows me. (I don't like being a laughingstock.) And I'll continue to get boosters until such time as there's evidence sufficient to convince me they're a bad idea. I don't see the downside in either, and I see a lot of upside. I've only gotten a cold once since COVID kicked off. I used to get about 3 a year. Part of that is probably from wearing KN95 and N95 masks correctly (with a good seal) when appropriate.