General Reports

[QUOTE=MrEnternational;2460241]Listen man. You said that shit. I am at Jomtien Beach right now. I have never seen so many damn people here.[/QUOTE]Indeed MrE. They are probably here because Bang Saen beach towards Laem Chabang is too busy. Did you see the photos from there the weekend after the beach closures were lifted?

There are a lot who post on here and other forums who quote the 18% figure for tourism as justification why borders have to be opened. They overlook the big numbers of Thais who migrate down here pretty much every weekend (under anything resembling normal conditions). Most of them don't spend huge bucks, although there are a lot of Bangkokians (both middle class Thai and Expat) who bring the family to the beach at least a couple of times a month and stay in mid-range hotels, both in Pattaya and particularly to Hua Hin. The sheer numbers make the spend significant. I recall seeing a figure of 45% of Pattaya tourist gross revenue is domestic, which those who rarely, if ever, venture beyond the area encompassed by Dolphins Roundabout, the sea, Soi Buakhao & Bali Hai pier just laugh off as nonsense.

1 - Beach road last Tuesday with traffic jams on beach road and the beach full of Thai [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JWUhWbBRGU[/URL].

2 - Beach road in January 2020 before the covid [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S12TlrYveiQ[/URL].

Everyone will make their own opinion.

[QUOTE=GettingFedUp;2460156]

I understand your keenness to get back to Thailand, but you really cannot apply the world view of IATA to this country, now or ever. After all, "TiT".
[/QUOTE]Thank you for your opinion.

Everyone doesn't care what I think. Because it is not the subject. The subject of my post is about people who are waiting to know when they can get plane tickets and how will happen their arrival in Thailand.. That's all.

For my part, I like the facts. Not generalities that have no meaning in the context of the covid in June 2020, some of "I think that" or "IMHO".

When I post I try to shore up either with articles from relevant organizations, with newspaper articles or with images. Eventually I try to identify a trend. With material that I think is credible. I don't just say "I think the farangs can come back in November, December, 2021 or with my crystal ball".

If you think IATA advice is worthless, please prove it with real and detailed arguments. I can receive them without any problem.

[QUOTE=MrEnternational;2460241]Listen man. You said that shit. I am at Jomtien Beach right now. I have never seen so many damn people here. Cars are lined up end to end on the street and people are lined up from end to end on the beach. (I do mean end to end because I drove the entire length.) And it was the same at Pattaya Beach before I drove over here.

Now I see why they were worried about people crowding the beaches if the had stayed open. I never saw near this many people when the place was open to foreigners. They have the banana boats and jetskis out for rent and the water is full of people. For mfs that think people are starving around here and these people can not make it in life without their money, then congratulations on fooling yourself.[/QUOTE]Pattaya, Jomtien, Samui, Phuket, lower Sukhumvit are on life-support. Sure locals visit beaches at weekends, Jomtien and Bang saen are particularly popular but they don't spend a whole lot. Most take lunches and drinks with them, chill in groups till the sun goes down and then head home. There is I believe real hardship for workers still around as evidenced by the length of daily queues for food handouts. Sure some girls are getting by turning cheap tricks, sure the smarter ones are doing better than some others but overall for most of them it's pretty dire and will be until tourists in numbers are allowed back in.

[QUOTE=Pimpampoumpipo;2460271]For my part, I like the facts.[/QUOTE]Not a problem, facts wanted so facts you shall have:

Fact 1 IATA is the International Air Transport Association. It is a trade Association not a national government.

Fact 2 IATA has no control over national borders anywhere so their view of the outlook is an opinion not a fact.

Fact 3 As a trade Association their opinions may "possibly" be influenced by the vested interests of their member airlines (they'd be a crap Association if they campaigned against their members) . Their opposition to quarantines in the article you quote is a case in point. They make no public health claims to counter their imposition, just stating "Quarantine is a major deterrent for air travel".

Fact 4. The article you quote has precisely zero references to Thailand. It also has zero references to July and / or August. So your statement in the Thailand General thread that "The current context allows to think the borders will soon open. First for certain categories of people in July (business, .) then for tourists (probably since August)" is at best speculation not fact, at worst a complete non sequitur.

Fact 5. The situation here appears very different to many countries, both from personal "boots on the ground" experience and postings on this and other forums. I only recall one instance of a contributor on here giving details of a death which they felt had been covered up (an American gentleman in Buriram around 9 April if I recall) and a few minutes digging into the available data identified a likely match which the the contributor was satisfied with. Definitive matching simply not possible given anonymity both on here and in the published data.

Fact 6. You explicitly asked for opinions. You got them (together with the warning about being careful what you ask for, which you seem to have ignored), perhaps with my opinionated insight / thoughts about how Thailand works differently (and members of the jury save me the response that it rarely works at all). Now you only want facts.

The case on the factual evidence for the defence rests, M'Lud.

Closing statement. Ladies, gentlemen and persons who because of their gender identity it might breach site rules to mention explicitly, of the jury. The defence has, as requested by the plaintiff, laid out a factual rebuttal to their case. On these factual matters your duty is to determine whether the defendant, Mr GettingFedUp is liable for a breach of duty in providing opinions as requested for the travel outlook to Thailand. That the plaintiff didn't like those opinions and so squealed like a pig is should not cloud your judgement. Thank you members of the jury, thank you M'Lud.

[QUOTE=Pimpampoumpipo;2460271]The subject of my post is about people who are waiting to know when they can get plane tickets and how will happen their arrival in Thailand.. That's all.[/QUOTE]Buying plane tickets is easy. Getting to your destination is a whole different ball game.

Look back to New Year and there was a 3 line item at the bottom of page 31 that some people in a Chinese city very few people had heard of had coughed and some had died. That's 6 months ago. Things have changed that quickly.

The outlook? Anything is speculation. Particularly in Thailand. As an example Government sources were quoted that the booze ban would be lifted for a 3 day window to allow restocking for home consumption before the Buddhist and public holidays in early May, then it was announced that the ban would stay in place. What happened? The ban ended on 3 May which had barely been whispered as an option.

The reality of the situation under the emergency decree is that until it appears in the Royal Gazette it's just hot air. Even once it does appear in the Royal Gazette the Provincial Governors can impose stronger measures. So Chonburi (Pattaya, Jomtien, Bang Saen and Bang Saray amongst others) shut beaches, Prachup Kiri Khan (Hua Hin) didn't.

The only certainty about the future available in Thailand or anywhere else is that everything is uncertain (although there used to be the get-outs of death and taxes).

[QUOTE=Franciscass;2460299]There is I believe real hardship for workers still around as evidenced by the length of daily queues for food handouts.[/QUOTE]I don't dispute that there's hardship. There's two places that do the handouts either side of my condo that have big queues every time. There's also a big parking problem every time because most of them come on their scooters. I know of another big donor that does handouts of many food parcels rather than meals daily about 500 metres away. They all do it at different times in the afternoon.

Now how people afford fuel but not food is way beyond my pay grade, and judgement of whether the recipients are the local community as intended or doing the rounds to Hoover up what they can I leave to others. But surely these good samaritans could co-ordinate so they hand out at the same time and everyone gets fair dibs?

[QUOTE=GettingFedUp;2460349]I don't dispute that there's hardship. There's two places that do the handouts either side of my condo that have big queues every time. There's also a big parking problem every time because most of them come on their scooters. I know of another big donor that does handouts of many food parcels rather than meals daily about 500 metres away. They all do it at different times in the afternoon.

Now how people afford fuel but not food is way beyond my pay grade, and judgement of whether the recipients are the local community as intended or doing the rounds to Hoover up what they can I leave to others. But surely these good samaritans could co-ordinate so they hand out at the same time and everyone gets fair dibs?[/QUOTE]I cannot say I'm surprised but I am always disappointed and saddened when welfare programs for the poor are seen through a lens of abuse by a minority rather than the overwhelming need of the majority who use and need them to get by.

[QUOTE=Franciscass;2460299]There is I believe real hardship for workers still around as evidenced by the length of daily queues for food handouts. [/QUOTE]When has a line for free stuff ever been any indication of how people are doing? Where I am from we have a saying, "If it is for free, then it is for me. " I guess you are one less person I have to worry about in front of me when the free pussy line comes.

I had originally planned my second trip to Thailand this past February but because of the pandemic, I had to cancel those plans which I sure many of you had to do as well. Who knows when this virus will be under control (if that's even remotely possibly) but it seems like there may be light at the end of the tunnel. Phase 4 seems to be on track for this July so I've been looking into hotels to see what is available. Looks like many others are having the same idea because just about all dates that I look into in late Oct, Nov, and Jan are booked solid for the places that I have been looking into. I figure that there would be a rush but damn. The plan is to go to Phuket, BKK, and Pattaya for about a week each and trying to stay close to the action such as Bangla, Nana, Cowboy, and Walking Street. Just about every site I've used says "Property booked. Choose other dates". I would but at the moment these are the only windows of opportunity that I have. My question is, is it too early to start booking hotels or am I already too far behind to book the hotels I want on the dates I would like? Seems like everyone is eagerly looking forward to the virus subsiding and to places like Thailand opening back up that hotels are getting booked far in advance. I bet many are just booking hotels with free cancellation options to see what is going to happen. I suppose I could go that route but don't really want to spend more money to secure a what if scenario stay. I would appreciate any advise. Thanks in advance.

[QUOTE=MrEnternational;2460426]When has a line for free stuff ever been any indication of how people are doing? Where I am from we have a saying, "If it is for free, then it is for me. " I guess you are one less person I have to worry about in front of me when the free pussy line comes.[/QUOTE]Standing in line for food "where you cone from" you know Mr E now that I think about it that doesn't surprise me.

[QUOTE=MrEnternational;2460426]" I guess you are one less person I have to worry about in front of me when the free pussy line comes.[/QUOTE]No need to worry about me Mr E, I hate queues but more relevant I believe in paying my way.

The small hotels from my research continue to be closed due to social distance and cleaning requirements. I was considering travel from US in September however, the possible entry visa exempt does not appear likely. I beginning to wonder if January next year is possible.

[QUOTE=TheBronx;2460464]Looks like many others are having the same idea because just about all dates that I look into in late Oct, Nov, and Jan are booked solid for the places that I have been looking into.[/QUOTE]TheBronx,

I doubt that, with a few exceptions, hotels are booked out for all three of those months. Without knowing specifics of which places and which channel you are looking at (hotel website, online agency or one of the comparison sites like Trivago) it is difficult to say, but I can think of 3 reasons why you see no availability.

First, some hotels have used the lockdown to bring forward refurbishment plans. Get the work done while there's no customers.

Secondly quite a few hotels (I am not saying a huge proportion) have not reopened yet as the inbound flight ban means no customers. No staff to input availability / rates on the system. Conversely hotels which show availability may not be open. When the closure order came down from the Government in April they just shut and laid off the staff. They didn't remove availability from systems so Expedia / Agoda et al showed availability for closed hotels. I know of a couple who arrived in Pattaya from Bangkok in April to find the hotel they'd booked the previous day for a 4 week pre-paid stay had been closed a week as were all of the local hotels of that particular company.

Finally, given the uncertainty about inbound travel (read elsewhere) hotels may simply not be taking bookings that far ahead. Bear in mind that there is zero certainty of what the inbound travel arrangements from 1 July are, let alone 4 months hence.

I had a quick look on Trivago for November availability. Plenty of hotels get listed. January 2021 should also not be an issue as the spike in visitors for Chinese New Year falls in February.

The most important advice I can offer (if you really feel you have to book now) is not to book a non refundable, non changeable rate. If travel restrictions haven't eased the hotel is likely to say "tough" when it comes to refund. I don't think I personally would be booking a room which required pre-payment now, as even if it can be cancelled you have to prise the refund out of them.

Caveat emptor (Let the buyer beware).

[QUOTE=GettingFedUp;2460692]TheBronx,

I doubt that, with a few exceptions, hotels are booked out for all three of those months. Without knowing specifics of which places and which channel you are looking at (hotel website, online agency or one of the comparison sites like Trivago) it is difficult to say, but I can think of 3 reasons why you see no availability.....[/QUOTE]4/ don't forget that the hotel often may not want to release all its rooms to the aggregators (with their conditions, commissions etc) just as the aggregators may not want to publish rooms that they will not sell.

It's common for hotels to still have rooms available when Agoda et al are showing none available.

Cheers. G.