General Info

[QUOTE=Sammon;2603405]Right now Delta varient is causing all the problems. There is news about some varient in the offing but not sure. Science has shown being vaccinated lessens the severity of the disease. My son is a hospital Doctor and he says almost 98 percent of people in ICU are unvaccinated. Rest 2 percent are with co morbidity although fully vaccinated.

As everyone knows this is a respiratory virus transmitted mouth to mouth. In our hobby it is impossible to avoid close contact. Vaccination might protect severity but you might become positive for exposure..[/QUOTE]I didn't know that. I thought it also came in via the nose and even the eyes, like Conjunctivitis. I also thought, like conjunctivitis, it could be picked up by touching things. I believe that is how I picked it up.

Your son, the doctor, must be a great man. He obviously doesn't work in Israel, where most are double jabbed.

The State of calamity is now prolonged for one more year.

When someone is thinking about going to the PH anytime soon (this and next year).

Forget it!

[QUOTE=DzikaBomba;2603452]The State of calamity is now prolonged for one more year.

When someone is thinking about going to the PH anytime soon (this and next year).

Forget it![/QUOTE]And how did you arrive at your conclusion?

State of Calamity law authority is extended one more year.

Before the pandemic, remittance from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW), revenue from tourism and revenue from BPOs, each contributed approximately 10% each to the Philippine's GDP. Contrary to expectation, the remittance in 2020 did not fall catastrophically--it fell just 0. 8% to $29.9 billion and in recent months, it has been rising. BPO industry saw a phenomenal growth and brought in $27 billion because workers could work from home. Tourism took a big hit, its revenue fell by 60%.

The robust growth of BPO and now OFW remittance gives the Philippines significant cushion to weather the revenue shortfall from tourism. After the precipitous fall of 17% in Q2'2019-20, GDP contraction has not been that bad and in fact, Q2'2020-21 saw an 11.8% increase compared to the year before (this was before Delta variant started to have effect).

Punters who have been betting that the Philippines will open its border due economic pain from shrinking tourism should not hold their breath. Economy is suffering, but not as gravely as we think.

Some sources:

[URL]https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/05/26/21/bpo-26-7b-revenues-2020-ibpap[/URL]

[URL]https://www.bworldonline.com/tourism-contribution-to-gdp-lowest-in-at-least-2-decades/[/URL]

[URL]https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Philippine-remittances-come-in-at-29.9bn-defying-COVID[/URL]

[URL]https://psa.gov.ph/national-accounts[/URL]

[QUOTE=Pinga98;2603528]Economy is suffering, but not as gravely as we think.[/QUOTE]For sure. Most of the big central banks seem to be pumping out currency to keep constituents content all the while maintaining low interest rates. Just in the US over 8 trillion in QE for "the pandemic" with as much as another 6 trillion on the horizon. Fourteen trillion new dollars printed up, of course not paper (we wouldn't have any trees left). For a family of 4, that's about $170,000 USD of "new" fiat money. The planet is awash in money. Keep interest rates down and the party will continue with "modern monetary practice", maybe forever or maybe not.

[URL]https://www.statista.com/statistics/1121416/quantitative-easing-fed-balance-sheet-coronavirus/[/URL]

[QUOTE=Pinga98;2603528]Before the pandemic, remittance from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW), revenue from tourism and revenue from BPOs, each contributed approximately 10% each to the Philippine's GDP. Contrary to expectation, the remittance in 2020 did not fall catastrophically--it fell just 0. 8% to $29.9 billion and in recent months, it has been rising. BPO industry saw a phenomenal growth and brought in $27 billion because workers could work from home. Tourism took a big hit, its revenue fell by 60%.

The robust growth of BPO and now OFW remittance gives the Philippines significant cushion to weather the revenue shortfall from tourism. After the precipitous fall of 17% in Q2'2019-20, GDP contraction has not been that bad and in fact, Q2'2020-21 saw an 11.8% increase compared to the year before (this was before Delta variant started to have effect).

Punters who have been betting that the Philippines will open its border due economic pain from shrinking tourism should not hold their breath. Economy is suffering, but not as gravely as we think.

Some sources:

[URL]https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/05/26/21/bpo-26-7b-revenues-2020-ibpap[/URL]

[URL]https://www.bworldonline.com/tourism-contribution-to-gdp-lowest-in-at-least-2-decades/[/URL]

[URL]https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Philippine-remittances-come-in-at-29.9bn-defying-COVID[/URL]

[URL]https://psa.gov.ph/national-accounts[/URL][/QUOTE]I don't think these numbers mean crap to the average Filipinos that are starving and can't pay their rent.

[QUOTE=Dg8787;2603553]I don't think these numbers mean crap to the average Filipinos that are starving and can't pay their rent.[/QUOTE](First off, hats off to all the overseas workers who keep their families going. True heroes.).

"Very true. The [URL]https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Philippine-remittances-come-in-at-29.9bn-defying-COVID[/URL] cites makes terrifying reading. Some quotes. The government has repatriated over 400,000 migrant workers, including those who lost jobs in the retail, oil, tourism and other industries. Meanwhile, worker deployment from January to October plunged 60.8%, to 693, 687, according to the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration."

Tough times for lots of middle class Pinoys so. The Tondo beauties guys here bonk still have their pak pak of course.

"The Philippines, Asia's third largest recipient of remittances after India and China, has relied on money sent home by around 10 million Filipinos who live and work overseas."

"Ang expects Filipino workers to continue seeking jobs overseas when the global economy recovers. But he said companies that have pivoted to digital might need fewer hands. "My worry," Ang said, "is that they won't be needed anymore because the companies survived without them."

Big problems ahead even though googling "Philippines remittances" in news gives all positive stories. From Pinoy sources.

[QUOTE=MrEnternational;2601608]I do not know any numbers, but I recently postedin another thread a White House briefing of the CDC director saying the shit is not working in Israel. Nobody seems to pay it any attention though. Also 2 top US FDA officials quit last week because the administration is trying to push a 3rd jab and they are not sure whether or not it will be safe to do so. I managed to find the video. It is from minute 40 to 41.

[URL]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ciVGAPuruoQ&list=WL&index=12&t=859s[/URL][/QUOTE]I watched most of the video, and respectfully disagree. At 40:40 in the 50-minute video, CDC Director Dr Walensky speaks (briefly, for 1 minute) regarding people who are immuno-compromised as not having enough of the vaccine in the first place, and should have received a booster shot previously. She then discusses the Israel situation, where Delta is taking off against everyone including the vaxxed, as something to watch. She does not call out the Israeli situation (nor the booster) as a failure of the vaccines. The majority of the time in this video, the 4 persons speaking sing the praises of the vaccines.

The moderator is calling the vax program a success. Dr. Murthy, current US Surgeon General, discusses boosters. He is not saying the program is failing, or that the vaccine doesn't work. Check him at 6:00 minutes into the video. And then at 8:17, Dr Murthy: "This plan to admisiter booster doses does not change our commitment to vaccinating those who are not yet vaccinated here in the US and around the world. The overwhelming majority of hospitalizations and deaths continue to occur among the unvaccinated. We will continue to ramp up efforts to increase vaccinations here at home". That literally is the US Surgeon General saying the overwhelming majority of hospitalizations / deaths occur among the un-vaxxed. Hence I'd like to see SG's link or evidence of hospitals being full of fully-vaxxed persons.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Director of the CDC. 11:28 into the video: "First, vaccine-induced protection against Covid-19 begins to decrease over time. Second, vaccine effectiveness against severe disease, hospitalization and death remains relatively high. And third, vaccine effectiveness is generally decreased against the Delta variant". I am not sure that anything said there gives the impression that the vaccines don't work. I guess anyone could be of a different opinion. It would seem to me to say that vax effectiveness is still being studied over time, with recommended changes being made as more data comes forward. About 18:27 into the video she says: [B]"We are currently averaging over 500 Covid-19 deaths per day, and these remain largely preventable. If you are still unvaccinated, please get vaccinated"[/B]. The video is from 3 weeks ago, the US is now over 1500 deaths / day.

I can see two possibilities:

1) By admitting that the vax-induced protection begins to decrease over time, this is (in the academic sense) an admission that the vaccines alone, after full dosing, aren't a 1-stop cure-all for Covid. More dosage is needed later.

2) By saying that the vaccines must be boosted (re-administered) from time-to-time indicates that the vaccines are still being studied. They might be considered very successful if they prevent severe symptoms, hospitalizations, and / or death, even when they need periodic re-administration.

IMHO, the second scenario is in effect. Other wonder-treatments must also be re-administered regularly: ie, insulin (daily). You might want to get a flu shot each year (although I don't think that is a booster situation). The video also says the US has donated 100 million doses to other countries, and is on its way to donating more than 200 million doses (29:10 into the video).

SG has done drive-by posts before, offering information as fact without offering a link or such as evidence. Show us the receipts, SG, and prove me wrong. At least ME provided some proof.

[QUOTE=WestCoast1;2603754]I watched most of the video, and respectfully disagree..[/QUOTE]Here is a graphic comparing vax to unvax out of 100,000 people in Wisconsin in the month of July. I'm sure there is some additional weighting required to account for population vax rate.

Cases.

Vax - 125 cases per 100,000.

Unvax 369 cases per 100,000.

Let's say that's 3 x more likely to get infected with COVID in the first place.

Hospitalisations.

Vax - 4. 9 admissions per 100,000.

Unvax 18.2 admissions per 100,000.

That's 3 x more likely to get hospitalised.

Deaths.

Vax - 0. 1 deaths per 100,000.

Unvax 1. 1 deaths per 100,000.

That's 11 times more unvaxed people die.

So even better when the boosters can be rolled out.

[QUOTE=BrizLad;2603765]SNIP

Deaths.

Vax - 0. 1 deaths per 100,000.

Unvax 1. 1 deaths per 100,000.

That's 11 times more unvaxed people die.

So even better when the boosters can be rolled out.[/QUOTE]The vaccines wane in effectiveness over time. Without boosters, Delta (or other) will possibly catch up to the vaxxed the same way it will hit the unvaxxed (the Israel issue, more coming on that soon).

[QUOTE=Sam14;2603274]Yes! Suggested thread title: CDC Public Relations".[/QUOTE]I was thinking thread title: "Covid sh*t".

[QUOTE=Sam14;2603278]I'm on a roll. . How bout even a competing thread, call it Tin Foil Chit Chat. [/QUOTE]Hahaha.

[QUOTE=Sam14;2603278]Westy, that little rant below was rather sarcastic but it was in no way meant as a jab at you. I super appreciate the guys like you, GE, Advan and others who are on the ground reporting. It's great to hear what's actually happening, and keeping this forum alive. If I had anything more useful to add, I'the chime in. Thanks man![/QUOTE]No offense taken. I pay GE, Advan, and a few others each month to thumbs-up anything I say.

[QUOTE=GoodEnough;2603288]While it's difficult to present a clear, data-based picture of what's happening throughout the country it appears (should be in italics) that the situation is worsening; at best it doesn't seem to be getting any better. Davao, where I live, escaped more stringent lockdowns until a couple of days ago when more severe measures were imposed. CdO, where a good friend of mine lives, is also heavily restricted (in theory), as is most of MetroManila. Some of the more rural areas in which I also have friends, appear to be restricting movements sporadically. That said, at least here in Davao, regardless of the "official" categorization, day-to-day life doesn't seem to change much. That is, stores are still open, bars are still closed, restaurants have limited capacity and are mostly empty to sparsely populated. Virtually everyone is masked all of the time, while driving (even alone in the car), walking, in retail establishments or anywhere else out in public. Given the dearth of people I've observed in the larger malls here, the closure of restaurants (including our own), and the number of "space available" signs throughout the city, I conclude that the economy is struggling, but I've seen nothing official from the city government. [/QUOTE]That description is typical of my experience both in the province for a year, and half that time in the city. My only slightly different perspective is that all areas will eventually be going thru the cyclical nature of GCQ (mild restrictions) / ECQ (strict). All of northern Mindanao is a good example, from Surigao to Iligan (each main city along that route has been in / out of ECQ / GCQ since the start. A month or 6 weeks of ECQ, a few months of GCQ. Rinse / Lather / Repeat. Here's the bad part: The slowness of the pace of getting more jabs into arms (regardless the reason) means that this could go on for more than just a matter of months. As we've mentioned before, leaders might just say "Eff it" and open borders. That said, even if the prodigal sons return, I am not sure there will be a fatted cow available for them to eat. Are you willing to fly here, isolate, skip the nightlife, order your food sent to your hotel / condo thru Grab Eats, be allowed only 1 guest in total to register in your hotel / condo, use ST hotels for all the other girls? Worse, if your area goes into hard lockdown, are you OK staying inside for a few weeks, only going out for the grocery store, pharmacy, or doctor? If you are only here for 1-3 weeks, is any of this trip wise from a cost / benefit analysis?

[QUOTE=GoodEnough;2603288]Given the current limbo, and based on nothing but my own inferences, I doubt seriously that the country is going to open in any meaningful way to foreigners any time soon. On the other hand, the tourism sector is on life support, and the government may just take a "screw it" attitude and start to allow entry of the fully vaccinated from "green" countries; a list which does not at the moment, include the United States.[/QUOTE]I get messages from the fellas sitting in their home countries, like this: "Certainly this can't last forever. Don't you think they will open up and allow tourists by THIS (or THAT) month?" Saying here the same thing that I reply back: I have no idea if that is how or when it will happen. Guessing that whenever the prodigal sons return, they will at first be walking into in-country travel bubbles (your trip will take you to a resort spot, and nowhere else) for a period of time. After that, other areas will be exposed to the foreigners, and they might be walking into the exact same situation myself, GE, or others have described.

Just for fun, see the pics. First and second pics are more recent Burgos pics. During the past 6 weeks of ECQ / MECQ, all restaurants are closed to sit-down dining. That eliminates the two previously opened places: The Cuervo Cantina and Bourbon. The only thing that is open, from Makati Ave to Kalayaan to Luna, are the 7-11's and Family Mart. The chismis from the bakla (9 or 10 on the Burgos / Durban corner) was that Ringside / Mixed Nuts was sold in mid 2020 and the buyer was wanting to make a legit restaurant, but nothing happened after that. To be fair, when NCR goes back to GCQ, Cuervo and Bourbon will re-open.

Last pic is Robinson's Malate, 3 weeks ago. Even after I posted the last set of Robinson's pics showing a desolate and mostly-closed mall, a day or two later and still mostly closed, were these long lines (floors 2, 3, 4) waiting for a vaccine. Even while mostly closed during ECQ (grocery store and a handful of coffee shops selling takeout were the only things open in the mall), they were having these mass-vax sites up and running. Now that we are at MECQ, many retailers have re-opened in the mall (still no resto sit-down until GCQ, for mall and the entire NCR). The no sit down is also for carindarias.

[QUOTE=WestCoast1;2603754]I watched most of the videog. At least ME provided some proof.[/QUOTE]Unfortunately for me, the CDC, the NIAID (Fauci), Surgeon General and WHO used to be my most reliable source in order of trust.

Under the Trump, the first 3 were blatantly politicized and misleading (a kinder way of putting it).

WHO is a political organization so I have always viewed what they say through a political prism. Most of their PPE stockpile were shipped to Africa. Nobody mentioned what happened to the Ebola fighting money donated and received. There supposedly was quite a large surplus.

Under Biden, my top 3 choices did not improve much. Especially with the "gain of function" bombshell during the summer about the Fauci NIAID funded research on the Corona virus in Wuhan.

The UK ministers were no better for their recommendations and breaking those recommendations.

Raw data and information is really the only way to gather and analyze and format a semi educated course of action. But that requires a high multidisciplinary knowledge and skill that escape most if not all people.

So healthy debates on this forum is actually good. Citing sources highlight information that is sometimes glossed over on local media or macnews. The side effects are not minor issues but downplayed to not negatively impact vaccine take-up rate.

In either case, the move towards management versus elimination strategy is actually openly discussed. Maybe VP Duterte will go down that route and open up PI.

[QUOTE=WestCoast1;2603772]That description is typical of my experience both in the province for a year, and half that time in the city. My only slightly different perspective is that all areas will eventually be going thru the cyclical nature of GCQ (mild restrictions) / ECQ (strict). All of northern Mindanao is a good example, from Surigao to Iligan (each main city along that route has been in / out of ECQ / GCQ since the start. A month or 6 weeks of ECQ, a few months of GCQ. Rinse / Lather / Repeat. Here's the bad part: The slowness of the pace of getting more jabs into arms (regardless the reason) means that this could go on for more than just a matter of months. As we've mentioned before, leaders might just say "Eff it" and open borders. That said, even if the prodigal sons return, I am not sure there will be a fatted cow available for them to eat. Are you willing to fly here, isolate, skip the nightlife, order your food sent to your hotel / condo thru Grab Eats, be allowed only 1 guest in total to register in your hotel / condo, use ST hotels for all the other girls? Worse, if your area goes into hard lockdown, are you OK staying inside for a few weeks, only going out for the grocery store, pharmacy, or doctor? If you are only here for 1-3 weeks, is any of this trip wise from a cost / benefit analysis?

I get messages from the fellas sitting in their home countries, like this: "Certainly this can't last forever. Don't you think they will open up and allow tourists by THIS (or THAT) month?" Saying here the same thing that I reply back: I have no idea if that is how or when it will happen. Guessing that whenever the prodigal sons return, they will at first be walking into in-country travel bubbles (your trip will take you to a resort spot, and nowhere else) for a period of time. After that, other areas will be exposed to the foreigners, and they might be walking into the exact same situation myself, GE, or others have described.

Just for fun, see the pics. First and second pics are more recent Burgos pics. During the past 6 weeks of ECQ / MECQ, all restaurants are closed to sit-down dining. That eliminates the two previously opened places: The Cuervo Cantina and Bourbon. The only thing that is open, from Makati Ave to Kalayaan to Luna, are the 7-11's and Family Mart. The chismis from the bakla (9 or 10 on the Burgos / Durban corner) was that Ringside / Mixed Nuts was sold in mid 2020 and the buyer was wanting to make a legit restaurant, but nothing happened after that. To be fair, when NCR goes back to GCQ, Cuervo and Bourbon will re-open.

Last pic is Robinson's Malate, 3 weeks ago. Even after I posted the last set of Robinson's pics showing a desolate and mostly-closed mall, a day or two later and still mostly closed, were these long lines (floors 2, 3, 4) waiting for a vaccine. Even while mostly closed during ECQ (grocery store and a handful of coffee shops selling takeout were the only things open in the mall), they were having these mass-vax sites up and running. Now that we are at MECQ, many retailers have re-opened in the mall (still no resto sit-down until GCQ, for mall and the entire NCR). The no sit down is also for carindarias.[/QUOTE]That sucks!

Is getting worse and worse. What about tourist destinations?

I read that Boracay is open for tourist at this moment, and that Palawan will be open soon too.

I hope it gets better by December, still 3 months to go.

Anyways, I'm still going there before Christmas and for 4 months at least, nothing will stop me from not going.

I just hope the 10 days quarantine will be shorten to a week or less, specially since Canada right now is a low risk country but is still not in the green list of countries for the Philippines.

[QUOTE=SteveNash;2604087]That sucks!

Is getting worse and worse. What about tourist destinations?



I just hope the 10 days quarantine will be shorten to a week or less, .[/QUOTE]Correct me if I m wrong, 14 days mandatory quarantine is what I read from the official websites.

10 days minimum at dedicated hotels, balance 4 days can be at home according to LGUs but it's irrelevant to tourists.

[QUOTE=Datiao;2604104]Correct me if I m wrong, 14 days mandatory quarantine is what I read from the official websites.

10 days minimum at dedicated hotels, balance 4 days can be at home according to LGUs but it's irrelevant to tourists.[/QUOTE]

Yes exactly 10 days in a hotel where they will watch you closely, the other 4 days at home nobody will watch you because you had passed your covid test by the 10th day. So basically only 10 days.

I wonder if those hotels have a recreation area so you can chill with others, I remember last year when I came back from Philippines and I had to do 14 days quarantine in an airport hotel in Canada, we had 1 hour lunch and 2 breaks of 30 minutes to go outside and mingle and talk with other people in the hotel doing their quarantine (the recreation area was outdoors but had a fence/barrier of course) .

That will be a great chance to meet a girl and exchange numbers. I met a Chinese hairdresser that way, 37 years old divorced single mom, she look younger and had big boobs, strange for an asian. I got her number and we ended up hooking up on January, she even cut my hair when the hair salon were close for 6 months here in Canada.

I know for sure there will be some OFW young ladies doing quarentine in those hotels. And if she is staying in the same floor even better.