American Politics

[Tiny 12]

Then I guess presidential elections don't matter to you regarding the economy, national security and wars since "shit happens" that presidents can neither avert, avoid, prevent or respond well or badly to.

Maybe you, Elvis, Caliguy and the others should demand Dear Leader run for Representative in whatever House distrct he retreats to and calls home during the indictments and trials. He would surely be elected by his fellow Repubs as Minority Leader or Majority Leader and Speaker of the House on the first vote on day one. If the latter, then he will again be Leader of the Free World and Steward of the Economic Agenda usually but apparently mistakenly reserved for whoever runs for and wins the presidency.

You know, like President Pelosi and President McQarthy.

That way he won't have to hide from another debate with Biden or encite another violent, cop-killing Insurrection on a future January 6.

These are the first words in our Constitution, Article I, Section 1:

"All legislative Powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States, which shall consist of a Senate and House of Representatives."

Yes, the president does have the power to veto legislation, although Congress can override his veto.

Our founders did not want to recreate a European style monarchy in the United States of America, let alone some kind of command and control style economy directed by a single person.

A Speaker Pelosi or Speaker McCarthy works for and serves at the pleasure of members of her or his party who are members of the House of Representatives. The actual power is vested in the 435 voting representatives.

As I've stated repeatedly, Fed policy, population growth, innovation and technology, oil shocks, changes in productivity, a pandemic, what's happening outside the USA, Congress, and the business cycle have collectively affected GDP and jobs growth, much, much more than the Presidents. And policies and legislation which presidents helped implement often don't affect the economy until after they've left office.

Given that I said I would not vote for Trump for dogcatcher, you should assume I would also not vote for him as a representative in a house district.

As to wars and national security, I'm not sure that either party has done a better job than the other. You can credit Reagan for helping end the cold war, and criticize LBJ and George W. Bush for getting us into stupid wars. You guys of course argue that every war pursued by a Democratic President is right and just, while those pursued by the Republicans are wrong and stupid. Which can become confusing when wars overlap presidencies. And which makes you look warlike and cavalier about the lives of our young men, given that (coincidentally in my view), Democratic presidents have presided over more wars and American fatalities.

[EihTooms]

You don't have to believe in mystical magical cycles or witches' curses on Republicans any longer Tooms. I've shown you stronger correlations between Democratic control of the House and recessions. And Democratic presidents and American fatalities in wars.

What are the odds that the Democrats would control the House of Representatives for every recession after the great depression except two? One of those two exceptions was the mildest recession (only 0.3% decline from peak to trough) since we began keeping records. And one was preceded months earlier by 4 years of continuous Democratic Party rule in the House.

And what are the odds that 95% of the American fatalities in wars fought since the turn of the last century would have occurred under Democratic Presidents?

Well, like your belief that Republican Presidents screw up the economy worse than Democrats, that's all a load of crap. There's no cause and effect. For example, Trump couldn't have prevented the pandemic and the consequent recession and loss of jobs. Or at least that's what Anthony Fauci said on CNN last night. And Roosevelt just happened to be president when World War II broke out. Shit happens.

I actually believe over the last 30 years the best combination for the economy has been a Democratic President and Republican House, or, better yet, Democratic President and Republican House and Senate. That combination has actually cut spending as a % of GDP and resulted in smaller government. Smaller government means a larger private sector. And when you leave more money in the hands of the private sector, that is, in the hands of the people and businesses, the economy grows and we're all more prosperous. .

Then I guess presidential elections don't matter to you regarding the economy, national security and wars since "shit happens" that presidents can neither avert, avoid, prevent or respond well or badly to.

Maybe you, Elvis, Caliguy and the others should demand Dear Leader run for Representative in whatever House distrct he retreats to and calls home during the indictments and trials. He would surely be elected by his fellow Repubs as Minority Leader or Majority Leader and Speaker of the House on the first vote on day one. If the latter, then he will again be Leader of the Free World and Steward of the Economic Agenda usually but apparently mistakenly reserved for whoever runs for and wins the presidency.

You know, like President Pelosi and President McQarthy.

That way he won't have to hide from another debate with Biden or encite another violent, cop-killing Insurrection on a future January 6.

[Tiny 12]

Here are two possible explanations:

1. The agenda proposed and won on by the POTUS as presented by him to the House on which it is now their turn to "originate", "pen" and "control" tax and spending legislation to enact under his direction and power to veto is crap out of the brain of a Repub so-called president and highly effective out of the brain of a Dem President.

Or.

2. It is just a chaotic mess of Mystical Magical Economic Cycles, Witch's Curses, Once in a Hundred Years Catastrophes and Wild Coincidences plaguing Repub so-called presidents and blessing Dem Presidents over and over again.

Does it really matter which reason it is? Your vote for a Dem President has been a vote for every Great Recovery, Economic Expansion and Historic Job Gains if you are that witch and have been voting for almost 100 years so far while voting for any other candidate or not at all has been a vote for every Great Depression, Great Recession, Serial Recessions, Atrocious Jobs Creating Record and Massive Jobs Destruction.

You don't have to believe in mystical magical cycles or witches' curses on Republicans any longer Tooms. I've shown you stronger correlations between Democratic control of the House and recessions. And Democratic presidents and American fatalities in wars.

What are the odds that the Democrats would control the House of Representatives for every recession after the great depression except two? One of those two exceptions was the mildest recession (only 0.3% decline from peak to trough) since we began keeping records. And one was preceded months earlier by 4 years of continuous Democratic Party rule in the House.

And what are the odds that 95% of the American fatalities in wars fought since the turn of the last century would have occurred under Democratic Presidents?

Well, like your belief that Republican Presidents screw up the economy worse than Democrats, that's all a load of crap. There's no cause and effect. For example, Trump couldn't have prevented the pandemic and the consequent recession and loss of jobs. Or at least that's what Anthony Fauci said on CNN last night. And Roosevelt just happened to be president when World War II broke out. Shit happens.

I actually believe over the last 30 years the best combination for the economy has been a Democratic President and Republican House, or, better yet, Democratic President and Republican House and Senate. That combination has actually cut spending as a % of GDP and resulted in smaller government. Smaller government means a larger private sector. And when you leave more money in the hands of the private sector, that is, in the hands of the people and businesses, the economy grows and we're all more prosperous.

Furthermore, our national debt is out of control. Somebody needs to stop the fuckers in Washington from spending us into oblivion. And when one party controls government, especially if it's the Democrats, they spend like there's no tomorrow. A Republican president and Democratic House sometimes isn't much better. Look at how Democrats followed right along with George W. Bush in wasting massive amounts on the Iraq invasion. Trump jumped into bed with Pelosi, and he and a Democratic House ran up the national debt by over 20% in just 2020. But admittedly Trump is a Democrat who infiltrated the Republican Party, so maybe that's not the best example.

In hindsight, I should have voted for Clinton for president in 1996 instead of Dole. I wouldn't ever vote for Obama or Biden though, any more than I'd vote for Trump. Those two bastards say I didn't build my business and I didn't pay my fair share. And Biden and the Progressive politicians who increasingly control the Democratic Party want to take the jobs away from my friends and family who work for oil and gas and related companies. Screw them. Why can't they be content to wield power over the states and cities they represent. Why do they have to impose their agendas on the rest of us. There are some parallels between today and 18th century America. And the bicoastal Democratic elite (the politicians, not misguided souls like you) are the Redcoats.

[EihTooms]

I'll quote here from a a New York Times article penned by Neil Irwin. While most journalists don't know jack about economics, Irwin has an MBA from Columbia. He's an exception.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/u...ght-think.html

In most democracies, the lower house of the legislature has more control over fiscal policy than the president or the upper house. In our Congress, the House of Representatives is the lower house. All bills for raising revenue must originate in the House. While admittedly budget bills are an exception, the Senate in general can only pass bills with 60% approval, making party politics less relevant.

As Irwin says, "Congress has, if anything, greater power than the president over how the government taxes and spends. It's almost a punch line that when a president issues a proposed budget each winter, congressional opponents call it "dead on arrival.".

Here are two possible explanations:

1. The agenda proposed and won on by the POTUS as presented by him to the House on which it is now their turn to "originate", "pen" and "control" tax and spending legislation to enact under his direction and power to veto is crap out of the brain of a Repub so-called president and highly effective out of the brain of a Dem President.

Or.

2. It is just a chaotic mess of Mystical Magical Economic Cycles, Witch's Curses, Once in a Hundred Years Catastrophes and Wild Coincidences plaguing Repub so-called presidents and blessing Dem Presidents over and over again.

Does it really matter which reason it is? Your vote for a Dem President has been a vote for every Great Recovery, Economic Expansion and Historic Job Gains if you are that witch and have been voting for almost 100 years so far while voting for any other candidate or not at all has been a vote for every Great Depression, Great Recession, Serial Recessions, Atrocious Jobs Creating Record and Massive Jobs Destruction.

[Tiny 12]

Ok, so your best shining example of Repub economic stewardship since the late 1920's was just three medium Recessions in 8 years instead of one or two Great ones under Eisenhower along with one of the worst jobs creation records of all time.

But at least some cool cars were built in those Happy Days that many Americans could continue making payments on under those crap jobs creation circumstances thanks to the Unemployment Insurance program set up by FDR.

Impressive.

I guess that one sterling Repub economic stewardship success changes everything else the data shows and proves over and over and over again.

I'll quote here from a a New York Times article penned by Neil Irwin. While most journalists don't know jack about economics, Irwin has an MBA from Columbia. He's an exception.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/u...ght-think.html

In most democracies, the lower house of the legislature has more control over fiscal policy than the president or the upper house. In our Congress, the House of Representatives is the lower house. All bills for raising revenue must originate in the House. While admittedly budget bills are an exception, the Senate in general can only pass bills with 60% approval, making party politics less relevant.

As Irwin says, "Congress has, if anything, greater power than the president over how the government taxes and spends. It's almost a punch line that when a president issues a proposed budget each winter, congressional opponents call it "dead on arrival."

Please recall my groundbreaking research, first published here, where I showed that twelve of the fourteen recessions that occurred after the Great Depression occurred under Democratic leadership and control of the House. Republicans did control the House when the 1953 recession started in July, but Democrats controlled it for the four years prior to that, up through January of 1953. Republicans also controlled the House during the 2001 recession. But the GDP decline, from peak to trough, was only a measly 0. 3%.

Yes, Democrats in the House have presided over all the Great Recessions after the Great Depression, which occurred almost 100 years ago.

What was your explanation for this? Well, apparently you believe we live in a dictatorship, where the dictator changes every four years. The president controls the economy. Congress, Fed policy, population growth, innovation and technology, oil shocks, a pandemic, what's happening outside the USA, the business cycle, those are all irrelevant:

Neither any Great Depression, Great Recession or Massive Jobs Destruction nor any Great Recovery, Great Expansion or Historic Jobs Gain occurred because the House made some quirky or meaningful move contrary to what the POTUS ran on, proposed, lobbied for, directed, guided or could have vetoed. The House waits for guidance from the POTUS. The direction of the economy is in the hands of the POTUS as the direction of a ship is in the hands of the Captain. And no major historical result came about, good or bad, because of the ship's crew mutiny and insistence we reverse course.

Oh, but I forgot. You do find a way to put the blame for pandemic on Trump. Just like you also blame Trump for Fed policy that failed to control inflation during Biden's presidency, and Eisenhower for the Vietnam War. Do you think you may be a tad bit partisan?

In reality, correlations between economic performance and the party of the president and party that controls the House are spurious. There's no cause and effect. And the legislation and actions during a president's term often don't affect the economy until years later. For example, from Irwin's article.

"The Congressional Budget Office estimated that (Obama's) Affordable Care Act would reduce the labor supply by 2. 3 million because more people would choose not to work. (The thinking being that they were working mainly so they could have employee-sponsored health insurance.) It said this would happen not immediately, but by 2021, a full 11 years after the law was passed and four years after the president who signed it would be out of office."

I provided a second example with corporate taxation below. Right now, the USA under a Biden presidency, is reaping the benefits of a competitive corporate tax regime, implemented by Republicans.

By far, the most cited paper on the correlation between the party of the President and economic performance was written by Alan Blinder, a Democrat who was one of Bill Clinton's economic advisers, and also an adviser to Al Gore and John Kerry during their presidential campaigns. Blinder did indeed find that GDP and employment growth historically were better on average under Democratic presidents. And what did he attribute it to? Luck. His conclusion:

"The Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future. "

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...7/aer.20140913

The most popular explanation for outperformance under Democratic presidents perhaps is that the Democrats supposedly emphasize short term demand stimulus while Republicans emphasize supply side economics. For example, when Biden and the Democrats passed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and sent out $1400 checks to most Americans, the effects were felt almost immediately, while Biden was president. On the other hand, the changes in the corporate tax regime during the Trump presidency took longer to work. Biden's reaping the benefits now. HOWEVER, according to Blinder and others, this doesn't explain the Democratic Presidents' outperformance.

[EihTooms]

Tooms has also been presented with the failings of the one term wonder Jimmy Carter, the same which led to a landslide defeat in his re-election bid. No amount of singing, dancing, twisting himself in knots, or the easiest way out of all, ignore the facts and repeat the same lies over and over will make it all go away.

As you can also see in my links and in any data links on this subject you prefer, for those of you who are really into crediting "economic cycles" for obvious and irrefutable Dem superiority over Repub inferiority on the economy and jobs creation and blaming "wild coincidence" or a "once in a hundred years catastrophe" and a "witch's curse" for Repub economic stewardship leading us directly into every Massive Jobs Destruction and Great Depression or Great Recession of the past 100 years or so, please note the contrast between Dem and Repub results within the same era:

- Even though Obama's overall jobs creation results were greatly damaged by the timing of his taking over from George W. Bush just as Bush's classic Repub / Reaganomics-style stewardship was crashing the economy down around our ears and wiping out millions of jobs, Obama's jobs creation results still kicked the shit out of those of the Repub who was stewarding the economy immediately before and immediately after his presidency. Within the same era.

As did FDR's, Truman's, JFK / LBJ's, Carter's, whose jobs creation results even kicked the shit out of Reagan's on an average per year or an average per term basis, Clinton's and, so far with less than half of that comparison to go on, Biden's.

[EihTooms]

Tooms has also been presented with the failings of the one term wonder Jimmy Carter, the same which led to a landslide defeat in his re-election bid. No amount of singing, dancing, twisting himself in knots, or the easiest way out of all, ignore the facts and repeat the same lies over and over will make it all go away.

Number of jobs created in the United States from 1933 to 2022, by sitting president(in millions)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ing-president/

Eisenhower lands DEAD LAST with only 4. 8 million jobs created over 8 years. Oh, along with 3 medium Repub Recessions in those Happy Days years.

By stark contrast, Carter lands in 4th Place with MORE THAN TWICE the number of jobs created under Eisenhower's stewardship in only 4 years. Along with only one piddling Recession that only saw one quarter of GDP Growth contraction of more than -1% while the quarter after that only saw a contraction of less than a single percent. And that one piddling Recession was artificially induced by the Fed in order to cool down an overheated economy that was creating way too many jobs for the number of applicants to take them. Which is the same reason the Fed is trying to artificially induce one today under Biden's stewardship.

BTW, there is no known record of the Fed having to do such a thing to cool down a Repub stewardship economy that was creating too many jobs. Ever. Just in their creating every Great Depression, Great Recession and Serial Recessions within one presidency of the past 100 years, whereupon the Fed had to react in a very, very different way, right? Gee, I guess that makes Repubs the champions of making sure their economic stewardship will never produce meaningful inflation. Oh boy. Or meaningful jobs creation and wage gains either. Congratulations.

Jobs created during U.S. presidential terms

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_c...idential_terms

Here again the Dem vs Repub pattern is unavoidable and inarguable. Yes, Obama's overall numbers were badly damaged by the fact that he took office just as George W. Bush's Reagonomics-style stewardship results were crashing in around our ears, wiping out millions of job over those first months of Obama's presidency before he and his Dem Congress' economic recovery legislation hit the streets, stopped that Great Repub Recession in its tracks and reversed it into a historic long term economic and jobs creation recovery.

However, as I assume you can plainly see, we've still got Carter soundly destroying Eisenhower in jobs creation and percentage of job gains either by term or if you combine both of Eisenhower's terms vs Carter's one term or reading them inside out or upside down or reverse or inverse, while singing, dancing, twisting or even if you throw in one of Tiny's E=MC2 equations for exponential gains per minute or any other way you want to look at it.

See, I wouldn't have to repeat these inarguable, irrefutable truths right there in the data and all historical records nearly so often if creative, pro-Repub revisionist historians here didn't continue to repeat falsehoods about what really happened and thereby encourage more crap Repub economic results to occur over and over again.

Now, the only question remaining is; Have you selected the Playlist for your singing, dancing and twisting performance tonight?

[EihTooms]

This has been demonstrated to you for years, with evidence of successes from certain Republican admins that did not experience the ills you speak of. Your coming here daily for years repeating the same fallacious talking points over and over will never change that. To quote a judge that shot down Trump's election lies, "Saying it's so doesn't make it so. "

Ok, so your best shining example of Repub economic stewardship since the late 1920's was just three medium Recessions in 8 years instead of one or two Great ones under Eisenhower along with one of the worst jobs creation records of all time.

But at least some cool cars were built in those Happy Days that many Americans could continue making payments on under those crap jobs creation circumstances thanks to the Unemployment Insurance program set up by FDR.

Impressive.

I guess that one sterling Repub economic stewardship success changes everything else the data shows and proves over and over and over again.

[Paulie97]

Tooms has also been presented with the failings of the one term wonder Jimmy Carter, the same which led to a landslide defeat in his re-election bid. No amount of singing, dancing, twisting himself in knots, or the easiest way out of all, ignore the facts and repeat the same lies over and over will make it all go away.

[Paulie97]

Oh, I have been patiently waiting for hard, real world evidence that Dem economic stewardship results in Great Depressions, Great Recessions, Skyrocketing Unemployment Rates and Massive Job Losses while Repub Economic Stewardship does not for 70 years. And looking for it in the data prior to that going back about 100 years.

Patiently.

Waiting.

And Waiting.

And Waiting.

This has been demonstrated to you for years, with evidence of successes from certain Republican admins that did not experience the ills you speak of. Your coming here daily for years repeating the same fallacious talking points over and over will never change that. To quote a judge that shot down Trump's election lies, "Saying it's so doesn't make it so. "

[Paulie97]

How exactly has this person been "shut down"? He has 1. 2 M subscribers on Youtube. How are his (kooky, conspiritorial) views being suppressed? And by whom?

The more conspiratorial and kooky the content the more subscribers and the more $ the guy makes. It's a great racket in the modern era. And YouTube is pretty much the wild wild west, no responsible editorial departments to reign the logical fallacies, half-truths, and lies. This while there's no shortage of suckers eager to drink at those fountains.

[EihTooms]

I've already addressed your brookings and hbr links here:



Your links, except the Brookings piece, were before the TCJA. Yes, when companies were paying the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world, investing in businesses in America and adding jobs in America wasnt as compelling.

Please be patient. In due time, I will address your fallacious and hyper-partisan argument that the correlation between GOP presidents and post World War II recessions is meaningful, while the correlation between GDP growth and a GOP controlled House is spurious. I'll also give you another shot at showing the correlation between blood thirsty Democratic presidents and American fatalities in foreign wars is spurious.

Yeah, those pre-TCJA links are there to prove how well known and documented it has been that Repub Supply-SideTrickle-Down policies have failed to produce anything of a net positive as advertised "since forever. ".

The post-TCJA link about its failure to do so was 4 years after it was signed and passed. Contrast that to the positives in declining Unemployment Rates, Jobs Creation, Recovery and Great Recession avoidance just 2 years after Bidenomics was introduced, legislated, signed and passed.

Oh, I have been patiently waiting for hard, real world evidence that Dem economic stewardship results in Great Depressions, Great Recessions, Skyrocketing Unemployment Rates and Massive Job Losses while Repub Economic Stewardship does not for 70 years. And looking for it in the data prior to that going back about 100 years.

Patiently.

Waiting.

And Waiting.

And Waiting.

[Tiny 12]

The failure of major corporate or top marginal tax rate cuts to contribute much if anything to the economy, much less "create jobs" in any meaningful way, has been well known and documented since forever.

Profits Without Prosperity

https://hbr.org/2014/09/profits-without-prosperity

Why Dont Jobs and Corporate Profits Match Up?

https://business.time.com/2011/06/03...fits-match-up/

Searching for supply-side effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/s...-and-jobs-act/

These latest Repub Tax Cuts and Jobs Act cuts were no exception to that repeated and utterly predictable result.

Yes, thank you so-called president Trump, Paul Ryan, Moscow Mitch McConnell and all the other Republican Congressmen who voted for the TCJA! But let's not leave out a big thank you to Calvin Coolidge, Herbert Hoover, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, whose similar agenda with their wonderful tax policies all produced similar Great Repub Depressions, Great Repub Recessions, Great Repub Skyrocketing Unemployment Rates, Great Repub Job Losses and zero sustained boom times, historic expansions or historic sustained job gains.

I've already addressed your brookings and hbr links here:

What do investors do with cash they receive from buybacks and dividends? They reinvest the money. In the process our economy becomes more efficient. Cash flow realized from buggy manufacturers was recycled into automobile manufacturing for example.

As to the Brookings article, they were absolutely right: "By only analyzing results through 2019, we focused only on short-term effects, which may be a poor guide to the longer run. Short-term growth dynamics typically are dominated by changes in aggregate demand while long-term growth stems from changes in supply. Both experts and advocates emphasize that the supply-side process may take a significant amount of time to take full effect. ".

You don't close down an operation in Ireland for example and move it to Austin the year after a tax cut.

And indeed if you look at investing cash flows, which include capex but not investments in working capital, that's what has happened. Here are cash flows from investments (negative because you're spending money) per share for the S&P 500 going back to 2017, the year before the TCJA took effect.

2017 -141.34.

2018 -138.90.

2019 -181.10.

2020 -214.82.

2021 -221.41.

2022 -226.86.

Investments by the S&P 500 companies have increased by 60% since the TCJA took effect! Not including investments in working capital.

And corporate profits resulting from this additional investment in America are kicking in too. In fact, tax receipts on corporate income were the third highest in history in 2022!

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FCTAX

Now those numbers aren't adjusted for inflation, but just eyeballing the graph, it looks to me like your claim that the TCJA will reduce the amount the federal government steals by 2. 5 trillion over 10 years is bogus. Total federal receipts as a % of GDP also are up, to the fourth highest level in history in 2022. All under a tax regime last modified by the TCJA.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S

Your links, except the Brookings piece, were before the TCJA. Yes, when companies were paying the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world, investing in businesses in America and adding jobs in America wasn’t as compelling.

Please be patient. In due time, I will address your fallacious and hyper-partisan argument that the correlation between GOP presidents and post World War II recessions is meaningful, while the correlation between GDP growth and a GOP controlled House is spurious. I'll also give you another shot at showing the correlation between blood thirsty Democratic presidents and American fatalities in foreign wars is spurious.

[Tiny 12]

How exactly has this person been "shut down"? He has 1. 2 M subscribers on Youtube. How are his (kooky, conspiritorial) views being suppressed? And by whom?

I think JustTK's referring to JFK. He's got a good point. Kennedy kept our involvement in Vietnam limited. Only 191 Americans died there while Kennedy was in office. After LBJ ramped up, 16,899 Americans died there in 1967 alone. JFK also ultimately made a good decision not to support an invasion of Cuba at the Bay of Pigs, although his timing, like Trump's when he recalled the planes from Iran, was terrible. Finally, resolving the Cuban missile crisis by withdrawing our nuclear weapons from Turkey made the world a safer place.

As to your point, yeah, Jimmy Dore does kind of go off the deep end at the end of the video.

[JustTK]

How exactly has this person been "shut down"? He has 1. 2 M subscribers on Youtube. How are his (kooky, conspiritorial) views being suppressed? And by whom?

I am talkig about JFK. People and views like his have been shut down. Examples, Bernie S, RFK. Did you listen to the JFK speech? You simply cannot speak like that these days. You will be sidelined or ignored, bcos mainstream media is owned now by the loigarchs and simply parrots their narrative.