Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Sirioja]

To his credit, General Mark Milley was correct when he suggested in the fall of 2022 that it was the best time for Ukraine to negotiate with the Russians. That was when Ukraine had taken back vast chunks of territory in Kharkov and Kherson regions, due to the tactical withdrawals by the Russian army. Ukraine would have gotten a much better deal back then.

The longer this goes, the more territory the Russians will take, and the terms of settlement will become more difficult. And of course, more people will die on both sides, and Ukraine will get more wrecked.

Ukrainians are exhausted, but the world now know Russian army is weak, they can t anymore build military ships without Ukrainian factories and they have less and less money for keeping on this war only due to Putin craziness, when Russians and Ukrainians are so much brothers with so many mixed families, Russians being bullshiting fucked by shameful Putin. Russians could live much better without Putin who fuck their freedom.

[Xpartan]

Yes, here's a classic example, from the Institute for the Study of War describing how Russia's about to collapse. This is at least the second article Paulie's quoted from that esteemed institution, which is funded by General Dynamics, Raytheon, CACI, DynCorp, and other military contractors who benefit from defense spending. It's a neoconservative mouthpiece to promote war. Robert Wright describes the think tank as "ultra-hawkish" and its objectivity as "dubious."

Russian YoY CPI inflation is 9.5%, and with short term rates at 21%, it will likely head down, along with interest rates.

Here's Russian YoY GDP growth the last few years, which was higher than the USA for all periods posted except 2022.

Russia seems to be doing so great according to your data. It appears the war it started and the sanctions from those Democratic douches are greatly contributing to its economy.

Maybe you shouldn't so vehemently insist on peace talks, considering this amazing economic miracle. Let's give Russia a chance to do even better, eh?

Why not wait until Russia completely overtakes the US and China as two leading world economies?

Which is about to occur any time now per your diligent research.

[Blood Red]

Well, M. Milley got pardoned. The funniest recent elections were in the First WW brothel, Romania. Add here the shit show in two rounds of French elections. American ones, too big to rig. Although, its the governance and not elections per se that matters.

To his credit, General Mark Milley was correct when he suggested in the fall of 2022 that it was the best time for Ukraine to negotiate with the Russians. That was when Ukraine had taken back vast chunks of territory in Kharkov and Kherson regions, due to the tactical withdrawals by the Russian army. Ukraine would have gotten a much better deal back then.

The longer this goes, the more territory the Russians will take, and the terms of settlement will become more difficult. And of course, more people will die on both sides, and Ukraine will get more wrecked.

[Paulie97]

Lying about Russia, lying about the war, and preventing the West and the Ukraine from falling prostrate and surrendering. Wink Wink Nonetheless this is a good article, hot off the press that deserves it's own place in the sun. There's some interesting imbedded links. Just look for the underlines in the original source, which for whatever reason didn't carry over in the copy and paste. But hey, regardless, maybe this will encourage BR, Tiny, and Elvis to link us over to Russian state media more often. Source citations show respect and consideration to the readers.

"The death and disablement of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers, acute strains in the defense budget and a looming shortage of military hardware make 2025 the year of truth for Moscow's armed forces.

With the full-scale war against Ukraine nearly three years-old, Russia's armed forces have lost as many as 700,000 troops killed, injured or missing in action by October last year. Estimates by Russian and BBC researchers suggest at least 400,000 are dead or too seriously wounded to return to duty.

Recruitment has barely covered these losses, forcing Russia to use draftees to counter Ukraine's Kursk offensive in August 2024, import troops from North Korea, and extend the use of convicts and people under criminal investigation.

By resorting to such desperate measures, Moscow was able to maintain combat pressure and slowly extend its occupation of Ukrainian territory, though its slow progress would not be considered a success when judged against Russian military theory.

In 2025, recruitment will continue to be a significant challenge for the Kremlin, further degrading its ability to field a modern army.

In December 2023, President Vladimir Putin claimed 490,000 contracted soldiers had been recruited to the armed forces during the previous 12 months. A year later, he admitted the actual number for 2023 was much lower, saying in a speech that "more than 300,000"had signed up.

This number correlates with the annual budgetary report, which detailed approximately 330,000 one-time payments (of 195,000 rubles, or $1,900, each) to contracted soldiers. This also confirms an assessment of troop sign-up published by CEPA in March 2024.

Putin announced the official number for 2024 in the same speech, claiming 430,000 contracted soldiers had been recruited during the year. He appears to have been exaggerating again.

Currently there is only a budgetary report for three quarters of 2024 and it suggests fewer than 230,000 were signed up between January and September. It is very unlikely that a further 200,000 signed up between October and December to tally with the president's boast.

A more probable assessment, which will need to be verified later in the year, is that 60,000–70,000 joined in the last quarter, taking total recruitment in 2024 to about 300,000 and so matching the previous year's number. This figure would include prisoners and people under investigation, who are eligible to join the military in exchange for criminal charges being dropped.

Alongside a shortage of recruits, the Kremlin also faces the manpower challenge caused by combat losses.

There were 48,000 Russian soldiers missing in action in December 2024, according to a recording of comments by Russia's deputy defense minister Anna Tsivileva, and more than 50,000 inquiries from Russian citizens to the Ukrainian authorities about missing Russian soldiers by January 2025.

These stark numbers explain why Russian authorities repeatedly increased payments to those who signed up to fight during 2024. They also shed light on the decision to deploy poorly trained drafted soldiers in the Kursk region, and to bring in troops from North Korea, allowing the Kremlin to avoid a new round of mobilization by coercion.

While the option of partial mobilization still exists, this would probably only happen if something extraordinary occurred at the front. Moreover, such a hypothetical scenario would have to resonate as much with the Russian people as for the Russian authorities. And the fact is that even Ukraine's incursion into the western Russian region of Kursk did not trigger this response.

The continued recruitment of prisoners and people under investigation relies on a "carrot and stick" approach where the "carrot" is money and the promise of freedom if they sign up, and the "stick" is the threat of brutal violence in Russia's prisons and pre-trial detention facilities if they don't.

Considering there are more than 700,000 criminal cases in Russia every year, and more than 500,000 convicts, a significant number of new soldiers could hypothetically be recruited from this group in 2025.

But the Kremlin's problem is not just with the supply of sufficient cannon fodder. The officer corps is also deteriorating due to losses, damaging the structure, discipline and fighting effectiveness of the Kremlin's damaged legions. As of January 2025, there were more than 5,400 Russian officers confirmed killed and more than half of those were junior lieutenants, lieutenants and senior lieutenants.

The death toll implies multiple thousands of other officers have been wounded, resulting in a significant lack of lower-level commanders, a shortfall that cannot be quickly rectified. The consequence has been an inevitable deterioration in organizational effectiveness.

The challenge for Russia's military is not an absence of will to fight, but a decreasing ability for their units to act like modern regular armed forces due to the shortage of capable junior officers.

The Kremlin's cannon fodder can push the Ukrainian army back and gain more territory, but will still fall short when judged against the benchmarks of Russian military theory, which says gaining territory cannot be the central aim of combat.

The main task is always the defeat of an adversary's forces and to eliminate their ability and will to keep fighting. In 2023 and 2024, the Russian army failed to accomplish this task.

If Ukraine continues fighting, and the West continues its support, the Russian army will not be able to accomplish its main combat task in 2025 either. At the same time, the growing human and materiel losses will make the ongoing deterioration of the Russian army irreversible.

Dr. Pavel Luzin is a non-resident senior fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, and a visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Tufts University.) In 2017–2018, he was a consultant on the issues of the armed forces, law enforcement agencies, and the defense industry for Alexey Navalny's presidential campaign in Russia. ".

https://cepa.org/article/russias-yea...dier-shortage/

[Paulie97]

Yes, here's a classic example, from the Institute for the Study of War describing how Russia's about to collapse. This is at least the second article Paulie's quoted from that esteemed institution, which is funded by General Dynamics, Raytheon, CACI, DynCorp, and other military contractors who benefit from defense spending. It's a neoconservative mouthpiece to promote war. Robert Wright describes the think tank as "ultra-hawkish" and its objectivity as "dubious."

Tell us about "Robert Wright. " That's a more than common name while there's more than a few around. If you are going to quote him, link us to the source, while telling us who he is.

"Deep State" conspiracy theories aside, you failed to cite any sources at all, why? Embarrassed? We already know Blood Red is.

Russian YoY CPI inflation is 9.5%, and with short term rates at 21%, it will likely head down, along with interest rates.

And according to you all will be well soon. Got it, while you cite no sources, and in fact provide no evidence at all.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/...ecember-a87639

I skipped the history and USA whataboutism as you never established any relevance.

Russia's defense expenditures are expected to be about 6.3% of GDP in 2025.

"Defence spending will rise to 13.5 trillion roubles ($145 billion) in 2025, the fourth year of what Russia calls 'a special military operation' in Ukraine, up 25% from the 2024 level.

Defence spending will account for 32% of total 2025 budget expenditure of 41.5 trillion roubles. The draft budget was officially submitted on Monday to the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, for review. ".

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...25-2024-09-30/

Those expenditures as percentage of the annual budget are extremely high.

700,000+ casusalties and counting, while this by far is the highest level since WW2. There's significant recruitment challenges.

https://cepa.org/article/russias-yea...dier-shortage/

As you say Blood Red, Russia is not going to collapse and Putin will not be overthrown. Russia can continue the war as long as it sees fit or until it wins. Increasingly politicians in the west are realizing that.

Got it, another rim job for BR of course while repeating his prognostications. Russia is experiencing a bit of a bump in the road at the moment, but all will be well soon. They are going to win no matter what. There's no real difficulties or leverage against them. Ukraine and the West might as well just bend over and grab their ankles now, and get it over with. And this while Western leaders are beginning to concur with this dim assessment. And of course, there's no evidence provided to support any of this, no source citations, while all contrary evidence is dismissed as worthless Western propaganda inspired by "deep state" conspiracy theories. It's the fault of weapons manufacturers who want to fight a dictator, who, sore over the loss of the Soviet empire, decided to try and annex his democracy loving neighbor. And that isn't even an appeal to ridicule fallacy, as it's you in a nutshell. We get it. LOL.

It's worth adding that Russian's inability to wage war isn't a pre-requisite for the fall of Putin. I personally do not know the ultimate outcome, but believe it's in the best interests of the West to stay the course and turn up the heat, in both sanctions and military support, especially if Little Vlad persists in unreasonable demands. The costs of appeasement are greater, monetarily and otherwise than staying the course. I recently posted some well sourced articles that support that.

My first vacation of the year starts Sunday. You all hold down the fort until I return. I don't do politics on vacation, and not even with people I meet along the way.

[Elvis 2008]

Has it been you, all alone?

Not sure why that would matter Xpartan. I guess you think three guys with IQs of 40 trump someone with an IQ of 150.

But no, Tiny's claim that Democratic douches are limited to bureaucrats is wrong. I originated the term, and it first came up when there were so many Democratic douches lapping up all the government bullshit on Covid. To recap that would be, Covid did not come from a lab. Ivermectin is a dangerous horse medicine. The vaccines are safe and effective. Masks work. The Covid testing Biden instituted when a person returned to the USA was an effective deterrent. Social distancing was based on science. Travel bans were effective, and lastly Fauci is God.

At some point, maybe you can answer this for me. Why did you dumb Dems feel the need to pardon God AKA Fauci?

So I disagree with Tiny. You are a charter member of the dumb Democratic douche fan club, and I hope you wear that badge with pride.

[Elvis 2008]

Of course we all know the sort of wells Elvis and Blood Red are drinking at when it comes to evaluating the Russian economy.

LOL. I have not made my own projections. I have just been making fun of how dumb yours have been. But yeah, maybe I should make my own. Here goes:

What does it take to bankrupt Russia? The most common method used to assess a nation's chance of defaulting is debt to GDP ratio. Russia's ratio is 15%. In layman's term, that is like saying someone is making $100,000 per year and has $15,000 in debt. So Russian income may not go up as much as projected? Big fucking deal. Russian GDP could go down 10% and Russia would still have no problem paying down their debt.

Of course, GDP is not the real picture because it is what the government can collect in taxes that matters. Thing is in Russia as of January 2025, the personal income tax rate in Russia stands at 13% for the majority of residents, with some higher earners paying a rate of 15%. So Putin has plenty of leeway with raising the tax rates if he needed to get higher government income.

If you look at income tax rates and debt in the West, there is much, much less wiggle room.

In relative terms, if Russia has $15,000 in debt, and its income is $100,000, Russian income would have to go down to $10,000 before it had the same debt to GDP ratio of the USA. And given how much of Russian GDP is oil based, the only realistic way for that to happen is an enormous collapse in the demand for oil from a worldwide depression.

So here we go again, another dumb Dem jerking off to some porn fantasy a prowar think tank is serving up.

To all you prowar dumb Dems, I strongly suggest you get your dicks out of your hand, your heads out of your ass, and start drinking from the well of reality. There is no realistic scenario in which Russia goes bankrupt and the West thrives.

[Questner]

No doubt the new administration within the belt will be judged by the consequences of it's actions and not the social media posts. Can you please advise Donald Fredovich that 5% of the GDP does not equal 5% of the budget. Even the US does not spend that much on military. And the structure of the budget is different is each sucker nation that blindly joined the marketing club of NATO. The only hope left, now you've got only two genders, men and women, in the eyes of the Feds. Can't say 'first' here.

[Tiny 12]

The warmongers have no real answer, other than a fantasy that Russia will suddenly collapse and that Putin will be overthrown. Until that happens, which it won't, they are happy to throw every last Ukrainian man and woman to the front line to be slaughtered. Now they will be happy to see 18 year olds conscripted....

Yes, here's a classic example, from the Institute for the Study of War describing how Russia's about to collapse. This is at least the second article Paulie's quoted from that esteemed institution, which is funded by General Dynamics, Raytheon, CACI, DynCorp, and other military contractors who benefit from defense spending. It's a neoconservative mouthpiece to promote war. Robert Wright describes the think tank as "ultra-hawkish" and its objectivity as "dubious."

Of course we all know the sort of wells Elvis and Blood Red are drinking at when it comes to evaluating the Russian economy.

"The Kremlin has launched an information operation that seeks to create the false impression that the Russian economy is performing well despite numerous continued indicators of macroeconomic distress. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed during a meeting on economic issues on January 22 that 2024 was a "strong year" for the Russian economy. (1) Putin claimed that Russia has a manageable budget deficit of 1. 7 percent and achieved a 26 percent increase in non-oil-and-gas revenue to 25.6 trillion rubles (approximately $257.9 billion) in 2024 and announced a retroactive 9. 5 percent increase in insurance and military pensions to address rising Russian inflation. Bloomberg reported on January 21 that the Russian Finance Ministry released a report projecting economic strength and suggesting that Russian budget revenue in December 2024 reached a record high of over 4 trillion rubles (about $40 billion) a 28 percent increase compared to December 2023 and the highest level recorded since 2011. (2) The data fails to account for Russia's unsustainable levels of defense spending, rampant inflation, a growing deficit and the erosion of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, however. (3) ISW continues to observe macroeconomic data that directly contradict the Kremlin's claims that the Russian economy is performing well. The Kremlin has recently adopted policies aimed at increasing defense spending all while Russian society faces labor shortages, broader demographic issues, declining savings, and increasing reliance on bailouts as the Russian economy faces rising interest rates, inflated salaries, and deteriorating production capacity. (4) These economic realities suggest that the Kremlin's efforts to posture economic strength are largely an information operation aimed at reassuring domestic audiences and posturing Russian strength abroad while masking the true challenges Russia's economy is facing, particularly heightened due to its war against Ukraine. ".

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...anuary-22-2025

Russian YoY CPI inflation is 9.5%, and with short term rates at 21%, it will likely head down, along with interest rates.

Here's Russian YoY GDP growth the last few years, which was higher than the USA for all periods posted except 2022.

2021 +6.1%
2022 -1.8%
2023 +4.9%
3 Q 2024 +3.1%

The Russian budget deficit was 1.7% of GDP in 2024. Compare to 6.4% for the USA.

Russian government debt is 12% of GDP. Compare to 120% for the USA.

Russia has a current account surplus of 2.8% of GDP. Compare to a 4.2% deficit for the USA.

Russia's defense expenditures are expected to be about 6.3% of GDP in 2025. In 1960 to 1970, USA Defense expenditures ranged from 7.6% to 9.4% of GDP, and didn't consistently drop below 6% until 1990.

Sanctions have not damaged the Russian economy to a significant extent, and won't work to bend the country to the West's will, anymore than they worked in Cuba, Venezuela or Iran.

As you say Blood Red, Russia is not going to collapse and Putin will not be overthrown. Russia can continue the war as long as it sees fit or until it wins. Increasingly politicians in the west are realizing that.

Make that 35 posts Paulie! I'm pulling ahead!

[Paulie97]

The warmongers have no real answer...

Though this is a most serious matter, I got a huge laugh out of this one. This clown, whose is here daily propping up Russia, who started a war with it's neighbor, has murdered civilians and hid their bodies, deported and indoctrinated Ukrainian children, and for three years has refused to pack up and go home is calling others warmongers.

Other than a fantasy that Russia will suddenly collapse and that Putin will be overthrown. Until that happens, which it won't...

Rather than make predictions, and add to the long list of those you've made that have failed, why not answer the content from the articles I posted, which highlight the serious economic and recruitment problems Russia is currently facing? The posts are recent and some are addressed directly to you. Or you can just glad hand back and forth with Elvis and Tiny, making the same unsubstantiated assertions over and over. Your choice, though the audience will notice your evasiveness.

they are happy to throw every last Ukrainian man and woman to the front line to be slaughtered..

How happy are you with the 700,000+ recent Russian casualties, the most since WW2? You are laughing but your mothers are weeping. That while we are speaking of women. You hide behind your keyboard and cowardly mock Ukrainian dedication to democracy and their identity, while Russians are in the mode of timidly serving a dictator and are terrified of speaking their minds. It's quite the contrast.

[Paulie97]

As I said, you are all for democracy as long as you like the results.

I couldn't care less what you say. I'm typing only for the limited audience that may be hanging around. "Results" at the barrel of a gun aren't democracy, while it's quite telling that you continue to claim that it is.

You liked the results in Kosovo, so that was okay and legit. You didn't in Crimea so it was illegal. Just like you didn't like the results in the recent election in Georgia. This hypocrisy must stop.

First it's ironic indeed, a Russophile like you, who insists that Alexi Navalny died of natural causes, is here talking about hypocrisy. Your whole regime is one continuous, walking, talking, murderous hypocrisy. So naturally you shift to whataboutism mode. That's also telling. If you think you have parallels here, prove them, and for once in your life, cite your sources. People don't hold your breath on this one.

I think this is some of what you are talking about. It's tough to have sympathy for guys like Vucic. The same goes for Russia and China.

https://apnews.com/article/serbia-ko...3e42cde3f0e9a7

[Tiny 12]

I think you are firmly in your chair, wanting to laugh but are unable to, as you know the caricatures so made don't represent the arguments of the supporters of Ukraine here. And at the same time, based on your constant activity here, you aren't able to take the fun vacations that this forum is about, and that I'm about to take, South America then Europe. The fallacy in play is "appeal to ridicule. ".

https://softschools.com/examples/fal..._examples/519/

The reverse is true, given the sources you embrace, and constant, varied logical fallacies you are caught in. That's a statement of the obvious, I know. Wink.

Not counting this one, I've posted 33 times in 2025 and you've posted 26 times. Get on the stick and maybe you can catch up! Your time is much better spent here than working for whatever 3 letter government agency you're employed by. That's if you're even a person, and not an anti-Russia PropagandaBot.

[Xpartan]

So Mister Smarty Pants, how would you end this war, short of taking the world to the edge of nuclear armageddon?

As Elvis said, Biden could have started by picking up the phone and calling Putin. Call me naive but bribe the Ukrainians with immediate membership in the EU and the Russians with a potential pathway to NATO and the end of sanctions and everybody might just be singing Kumbaya. Yeah, they may cost more than sticks, but you can buy a hell of a lot of carrots for what's being spent on this war. I do not share your apparent belief that "the next war" will occur if Ukraine doesn't have NATO troops defending its borders.

"Russia has to be the first country to join NATO. Then the others from Central and Eastern Europe can come in. There should be a kind of cartel of the U.S., Russia, and the Europeans to help ensure and improve world security."

- Boris Yeltsin

If it had happened the way Boris wanted it to, things would have turned out better.

Jesus Christ, you and your Russophilia!

Nave doesn't even begin to cover it. The former Warsaw Pact countries haven't run to the Nato because of their love for Nato. It was their path to break free from 50 years of de-facto occupation.

The mere idea of bringing Russia to the same organization as them would've completely negated the purpose.

And let's please, please keep in mind that Yeltsin's Russia wasn't even remotely a pure fascist mafia state it is now. Just read the reports coming out of that country today. People get 10 years for the most innocent dissent. Parents lose custody rights for a Ukrainian flag drawn by their child (and get thrown into prison too). Grandmothers get arrested and violently thrown into the police bus for coming with a placard that says Peace to the World.

Peace to the World is a crime against the state now.

Simply put, your proposal is insane. You just don't get it. At all.

[Questner]

Well, M. Milley got pardoned. The funniest recent elections were in the First WW brothel, Romania. Add here the shit show in two rounds of French elections. American ones, too big to rig. Although, its the governance and not elections per se that matters.

[Blood Red]

You misunderstand Ivan. We don't advocate democracy at the barrel of a gun. This while established borders are just that. Any in Crimea that wants to be Russian has long been free to pack up and go live there.

As I said, you are all for democracy as long as you like the results. You liked the results in Kosovo, so that was okay and legit. You didn't in Crimea so it was illegal. Just like you didn't like the results in the recent election in Georgia. This hypocrisy must stop.