Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Jmsuttr]

Primary link:

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status...67063184724229

Alternate link:

https://xcancel.com/Gerashchenko_en/...67063184724229

No direct confirmation as of yet, but certainly interesting if true. Not sure how the FSB would be unaware since they almost certainly have a file on most (all?) government officials.

Still no direct comment from either government. Curiouser and curiouser!

[Jmsuttr]

Defection, from Russia to the USA, looking to be a likely scenario (IMO).

Neither the US or Russian governments have said a word about this. From Russia, no outrage or demands for the return of their official who is under investigation. From the US, absolutely nothing at all that I could find. No acknowledgement of the matter, nothing!

So, if it's a true defection, makes me wonder what info he has to trade in exchange for permission to stay and (probably) some level of protection from an angry and embarrassed Kremlin.

[Reiner Otto]

It's a world of confusion, isn't it? Crimean Tatars have nothing to do with this current conflict. Yes, they were at the receiving end of Stalin's regime (do not equal with 'Russian), as other interned Japanese or Italians in the US and Canada, for example.

First, both Italy and Japan participated in the war. Tartars did not. Second, in the camps for Italiens or Japanese, there was some support. Not to compare with the "support" in the Siberian camps.

Third, Putlers invasion of UA to be justified, because Adolf also did it, for example.

[PaulInZurich]

I wouldn't have believed when the Russian invasion started that Ukraine will manage to bring the war to a stalemate. Incredible how the war changed, from a blitzkrieg to a stalemate where there is a death zone of 50 km all along the frontlines, where anybody who sticks their head out has a drone on their head. Both Russia and Ukraine innovated a lot, the other countries must be paying attention.

[Sirioja]

For his personal war, ranked as war criminal and dictator Putin just doesn't care about citizens roots, but from unknown in KGB, became to try to rebuild USSR, when thousands Russians prefer to leave Russia of Putin. But he feels threatened now and need to increase security around him.

[Questner]

It's a world of confusion, isn't it? Crimean Tatars have nothing to do with this current conflict. Yes, they were at the receiving end of Stalin's regime (do not equal with 'Russian), as other interned Japanese or Italians in the US and Canada, for example.

[TeFab456]

You're absolutely right about Tatars and I'm showing off my cultural illiteracy. I was confusing Tatars with Cossacks in the Donbas. The ex-business partner of a work colleague comes from a town there that's been bitterly fought over for a couple of years now. His family is Russian speaking Cossack and Ukrainians have been persecuting them.

Until 2014 Ukrainians were persecuting Russian speaking people in Donbas maybe with stupid jokes or some prejudice but the borders to Russia were open and everybody could visit everybody and nobody had anything to gain from a war (save for rackets and thugs and a weak leader who saw no other way to stay in power than to go complete his transition into a real dictator).

[Tiny 12]

The Tatars are Turkish / Mongol in origin and have no affinity to the Russian empire. They consider themselves to be the Cossacks of the Crimean peninsula.

Yep, because having no other choice, after the occupation. They dearly love Russians, because of being deported to Siberia under Stalin and allowed to come back to Crimea, the home country.

In 1988.

You're absolutely right about Tatars and I'm showing off my cultural illiteracy. I was confusing Tatars with Cossacks in the Donbas. The ex-business partner of a work colleague comes from a town there that's been bitterly fought over for a couple of years now. His family is Russian speaking Cossack and Ukrainians have been persecuting them.

[Elvis 2008]

More details would certainly be nice but, if this truly is a defection, we may not get many. Also, no matter how you slice it, the Kremlin can't be happy that they let him slip away.

Nah, JM, the defections are happening on the front in mass. While Ukraine is grabbing young men off the street, the Russians at first glance were more humane. They were paying young people big $ to go to the Ukraine front. Thing is as soon as the recruits got there, the senior officers made the recruits pay them all that they have received. According to an article from Seymour Hersh, if you did not pay all that you got, you were sent to the front or just tied to a tree and shot and killed.

The Ukraine war reminds me of what a driver's ed teacher of mine said decades ago. "When there is a deadly accident, does it really matter who is at fault? Both parties probably lost. "

When you are at war this long, it no longer is about the nation or pride or security, the troops just want to get out alive. They have no allegiance to anything but that.

If I had to deal with seeing a friend hunted down by a drone and his guts splattered all over me, I would drink, smoke dope or shoot heroin to cope. Wouldn't you?

Whatever land has been won or lost pales in comparison to the addictions and PTSD that is going to affect the soldiers of both these nations for decades. If you are in a forever war, you have not just lost high ranking government officials, you have lost the troops.

Unless you win a war quickly and decisively, you have lost. At that point, your declaration of victory is really saying the other side lost more than you did. Well, is that victory or was not ending the war sooner the smart move?

One distinct difference between Trump and Biden was Trump used to be so anti-war. He bragged endlessly how the Ukraine war would have never happened had he been president, so what does he do? He gets in a forever war with Iran. Yeesh.

Anybody sitting at their keyboards picking sides in a forever war needs to go down to the front and put their money with their mouth is. The defections then will continue until this stupid war is over.

[Reiner Otto]

Crimean Tatars, overwhelmingly would prefer Crimea being part of Russia instead of Ukraine. Now and in 2014 after the referendum.

Yep, because having no other choice, after the occupation. They dearly love Russians, because of being deported to Siberia under Stalin and allowed to come back to Crimea, the home country.

In 1988.

[Roman Blazduk]

Crimean Tatars, and residents of Crimea in general, overwhelmingly would prefer Crimea being part of Russia instead of Ukraine. Now and in 2014 after the referendum.

The Tatars are Turkish / Mongol in origin and have no affinity to the Russian empire. They consider themselves to be the Cossacks of the Crimean peninsula.

[Tiny 12]

Similarly, Crimea has been under the rule of the Roman, Byzantine, Ottoman, and Russian empires, followed by the USSR. Of all those, the Byzantines ruled longest by far from Istanbul (800+ years) and arguably have a strong claim. It's also historically relevant that the indigenous Crimean people, the Tatars, endured periods (esp under Stalin) in which they were removed from Crimea and replaced by people from more Slavic areas of Russia. Whatever one thinks about an empire's right to move its population around, it does muddy the waters when making history-based claims.

Crimean Tatars, and residents of Crimea in general, overwhelmingly would prefer Crimea being part of Russia instead of Ukraine. Now and in 2014 after the referendum.

[Jmsuttr]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/insig.../gm-GMD9BAA403

Obviously one article is not definitive proof, but there are literally no articles (as in zero) that take the position that this is in any way a normal or routine trip.

- On the diplomatic side of things, there are at least three issues to consider:

First, since the beginning of Russia's invasion, I'm not aware of any visits to the US by Russian diplomats that haven't had a nexus to negotiations to try to end the war. The delegation to the United Nations is an obvious exception. But we are simply nowhere near a "normal" diplomatic environment.

Second, even in normal times, a Deputy Minister traveling solo would be highly irregular. A Deputy Minister might accompany the Principal Minister as an aide, or travel as part of a larger delegation. That's not what happened here. In fact there's nothing in this account that's consistent with routine diplomatic travel.

Third, any normal diplomatic endeavor would require the involvement of the Russian government. Every indication and report is that he slipped away because he was being investigated and feared arrest. Had the Russian government known in time, it's likely he would have been arrested or at least prevented from traveling. Also, his choice of Belarus as his initial destination would be the least likely to raise a red flag.

- On the personal side of things, he either traveled on a Russian passport or that of a third country. Either way presents problems:

With his personal Russian passport, he would absolutely need a visa. That would require an application at the US Embassy and a personal interview. It's hard to imagine anything like that happening without the FSB knowing. In fact, it's a pretty good bet the FSB is aware of every Russian who has any contact whatsoever with the US Embassy or Consulates. And that's especially true with respect to government officials.

If he has a third-country passport, he would almost certainly not have used it when boarding his Moscow to Minsk flight, as that would raise questions. Also, if he used it for Minsk to Tblisi, that could also be problematic as airport officials usually want to see an entry stamp before they'll process an exit stamp. And Belarus is still not safe territory, so he'd be sent back to Russia should any irregularity be spotted. So, if we assume a third-country passport, Tbilisi is where he would most likely to have started using it, but would still have to deal with lacking an entry stamp.

Even assuming the most favorable circumstances (third-country passport with no visa required for BOTH the US and Georgia), he's still not the clear. DHS gets a copy of the passenger manifest for every flight scheduled to arrive in the US. There's no way Butsayev, no matter what passport he used, could escape being flagged as a Russian government official. Once flagged, it's virtually certain he would be detained at the arrival airport and questioned. He would not be viewed as a casual visitor, irrespective of what passport he was using. And DHS would also be aware of his unusual Moscow to Minsk to Tblisi to USA trip routing.

Of course, if everything was worked out in advance, through a confidential back-channel or intermediary, then easy-peasy and no problem! So, while more details will certainly help clear things up, at this point in time it's safe to say that all available indications are that this was not a regular, routine trip (personal or diplomatic). More details would certainly be nice but, if this truly is a defection, we may not get many. Also, no matter how you slice it, the Kremlin can't be happy that they let him slip away.

[Xpartan]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/...ces-say-a92663

The curious part isn't that a Deputy Minister would flee to avoid prosecution, that's understandable. But, if the report is accurate, he traveled Moscow to Minsk to Tblisi to the US. So, the curious part to me is why flee to America? Once clear of Russia's borders he could have gone to any place from which extradition would be unlikely, Turkey and UAE come to mind (among others).

It's my understanding that visas for Russian citizens are not currently being issued by the US. Pre-approved diplomatic visits are another matter, but that would require coordination between the US State Department and the Russian Foreign Ministry. That's unlikely, for at least three reasons: First, because of the unusual trip routing; Second, because there's no official reason for a Deputy Environmental Minister to visit right now; and Third, as someone under investigation, he would obviously not want to tip his hand about wanting to leave Russia and it's doubtful he'd be allowed to leave.

I don't know if diplomatic visits really need to be pre-approved. Plenty of Russian bigwigs have diplomatic passports, including sanctioned oligarchs, and use them as they see fit: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/...insider-a87018

Or he might have US or other citizenship allowing him to travel to the US. It's amazing how many of those "Collective West" haters do.

[Jmsuttr]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/...ces-say-a92663

The curious part isn't that a Deputy Minister would flee to avoid prosecution, that's understandable. But, if the report is accurate, he traveled Moscow to Minsk to Tblisi to the US. So, the curious part to me is why flee to America? Once clear of Russia's borders he could have gone to any place from which extradition would be unlikely, Turkey and UAE come to mind (among others).

It's my understanding that visas for Russian citizens are not currently being issued by the US. Pre-approved diplomatic visits are another matter, but that would require coordination between the US State Department and the Russian Foreign Ministry. That's unlikely, for at least three reasons: First, because of the unusual trip routing; Second, because there's no official reason for a Deputy Environmental Minister to visit right now; and Third, as someone under investigation, he would obviously not want to tip his hand about wanting to leave Russia and it's doubtful he'd be allowed to leave.

In view of the above, and considering how quickly he was allowed entry into the US, the clear implication is that he had some channel of communication with the US that didn't go through (and wasn't known by) the Russian government. One possibility is that he was a US asset, and another is that this was part of a contingency plan laid out in advance. There might be other explanations, but those are two that come immediately to mind.

What I'll be watching for now is whether he stays in the US for an extended period (or permanently) or whether he continues on to take up residence in another country. Also, since the Kremlin is obviously not going to be happy, hopefully he's got access to enough money to pay for robust security!