Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Jmsuttr]

The front lines are effectively in a stalemated state, as both sides have been able to use drones to degrade logistics and prevent (most) maneuvers. The ubiquity and range of drones makes massing medium-to-large troop gatherings problematic, as they're targeted promptly and disrupted. There may occasionally be some adjustments to front-line positions, but neither side seems currently able to conduct any breakthrough operations. However, since Russia's goal is to advance, while Ukraine's is to hold their defensive positions, the front line situation is more in line with Ukrainian goals (IMO).

With the front line being stalemated, the primary effort from each side is to inflict losses on the other by means of attrition aimed at infrastructure and deep-rear targets. At this point, neither side has been able to gain a decisive advantage. Russia thinks it can grind Ukraine down, even with Western support. IMO, the Kremlin believes (rightly or wrongly) that Russia can tolerate more pain and hardship than the other side. From many reports I've seen, they will likely focus on energy targets during this upcoming winter. Ukraine, OTOH, is counting on refinery and oil storage strikes to create problems for both Russia's economy and military operations. Ukraine believes (rightly or wrongly) that they can create real problems for Russia this way.

While Western support has had its ups and downs, every indication is that it's likely to continue to the level that at least keeps Ukraine functioning. While the West appears unwilling to give Ukraine the kinds and amounts of weapons that might lead to a possible victory, they're also unwilling to allow Ukraine to fail. On the Russian side, I think the same argument can be made with respect to the aid from China and North Korea.

But there are some wild cards to keep an eye on. If Ukraine can produce a better interceptor system, capable of dealing with jet-powered drones and cruise-type missiles, then that could help them get through the winter with much less damage. And, if they're able to produce home-grown ballistic missiles with sufficient range, that puts Russian infrastructure at much greater risk. On the Russian side, the possibility of a wider mobilization effort, after the upcoming elections, is something to watch.

Bottom line for me is that any so-called "peace talks" are just theater. That's because neither side has changed their fundamental positions and each side thinks they're in a decent position. Only time will tell, but I'm expecting this winter to be mostly more of the same. What I'll be watching is the wild cards I mentioned above, or maybe some other development that might give one side more of an advantage. Whichever side comes through the winter better will be in a stronger position come next spring.

P.S. Of course, there is always the possibility of a black- or gray-swan event, like Putin's death or ouster, but that's an outlier case.

P.P.S. Nobody in Russia or Ukraine really gives a shit about historical or other arguments. When two people are in the middle of a fist-fight, neither side cares why it started. The main goal is to win, or at the very least not to lose. Whoever wins will most likely write the postscript.

[Paulie97]

Here's the link to his anti-war drama built into an "essay" he wrote for me. This is all debunked, and was so well before his post so he simply failed to do his homework.

As to deterrence, perhaps you have a point, with respect to China for example. But at what cost? Sanctions kill a lot of people. UNICEF estimates over 500,000 Iraqi children died by 1999 because of sanctions. The CEPR attributes 40,000 Venezuelan deaths to USA Sanctions in 2017 and 2018 alone.

[Paulie97]

Upon further review this all was you. We all know you are heavily invested in your anti-US, anti-war agendas, but would you like to take time to walk some of this back?

I've seen the claims here about 500,000 Iraqi children dying from US sanctions and around 40,000 Venezuelan deaths from sanctions pop up here as whataboutisms before. Both numbers have been thoroughly debunked by later research. For Iraq, post 2003 surveys found no big sustained rise in child mortality during the sanctions period. The original 1999 UNICEF figure was heavily manipulated by Saddam's govt. Key paper is Dyson and Cetorelli in BMJ Global Health.

For Venezuela, the bulk of the humanitarian collapse and excess deaths happened before the 2017 sanctions. Brookings had a good piece on how these earlier numbers overstated the sanctions' role.

Happy to share the links if anyone's interested.

https://gh.bmj.com/content/2/2/e000311

https://www.lse.ac.uk/news/latest-ne...research-finds

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/r...-on-venezuela/

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/c...-in-venezuela/

[Paulie97]

Ultimately much of the blame for the current conflict lies with western neoconservatives and the western military/defense-industry establishment. If not for them, Russia and Ukraine might just both be members of the EU and NATO today. Please see the historical documents at the end of this web page.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-b...-leaders-early

In your eagerness to support your pal you overlooked my rebuttal to him.

The "not one inch eastward" assurance was verbal, limited to East Germany during unification talks, and never written into the Two Plus Four Treaty or any binding agreement. Also cut the spin BS. Many former Eastern Block countries freely and gleefully expanded into NATO because they reject your way of life.

Even though interpretations of such discussions remain contentious it's most noteworthy that such provisions were never written into any formal binding agreement. It's also unreasonable to talk about NATO expansion while ignoring the agency of the former Eastern Block countries that were eager to join.

Historians generally agree that James Baker didn't have the authority to make a binding pledge on behalf of the US regarding NATO expansion. His statements were exploratory while president Bush's administration later made it clear that nations have the right to pursue their own alliances.

And any idea of Russia as a member of the EU and NATO is a stretch to say the least given their dismal record on human rights and lack of adherence to democratic principles.

[Tiny 12]

At Tiny12 below:

No, we don't need exotic free-trade zones. Europeans were not invited to Moscow and we don't need them. Since the regime in Kiev won't sign anything and since whatever plan or agreement to be entertained will be a useless piece of paper, only our two friends can help us, our Army and Navy.

The civilian population of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk is less than 100,000. How about if the Europeans buy them all villas in the south of France, move them there, and pay them generous allowances for the rest of their lives? If they did everyone would come out ahead. According to Gemini Pro, deaths due to the conflict currently run 140,000 per year and global economic costs run about $1 trillion per year.

[Tiny 12]

Read up on history. How many times did NATO expand post 1991? How many expansions did the Russians tolerate, despite the assurance that there would be no NATO expansion before the SU collapsed?

Ultimately much of the blame for the current conflict lies with western neoconservatives and the western military/defense-industry establishment. If not for them, Russia and Ukraine might just both be members of the EU and NATO today. Please see the historical documents at the end of this web page.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-b...-leaders-early

[Questner]

At Tiny12 below:

No, we don't need exotic free-trade zones. Europeans were not invited to Moscow and we don't need them. Since the regime in Kiev won't sign anything and since whatever plan or agreement to be entertained will be a useless piece of paper, only our two friends can help us, our Army and Navy.

[Questner]

Enjoy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/06/w...orruption.html

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukr...w_article_pos2

By the way, soon all those in higher posts in Kiev to be detained for corruption start cooperating with the prosecution since no longer be bailed out by the Regime in Kiev (yes, they even parading now in black t-shirts with a slogan 'Kievan Regime' on them). Why, because before they were bailed out with dirty money and the revolving doors worked.

[Sirioja]

Many Russian guys are leaving their country to escape dictator Putin, when they don t want to be meat to kill for his crazy war, but USA suck him good till he finish in their mouth. Only making broke Russia will stop his war.

[Tiny 12]

She's putting the probability this will result in a breakthrough or the restart of sustained negotiations at 65%. That's probably high but who knows. The third-party-controlled demilitarized free-trade zone in the part of Donetsk still controlled by Ukraine may be a sticking point.


I think the proposal Witkoff and Kushner are carrying is probably an updated version of the framework that the USA, Ukraine and Europeans were quietly working on in August, rather than an entirely new plan. Zelensky said on August 25 that a one-page set of ideas had already been drafted with USA And European officials, including a ceasefire and an American idea for a third-party-administered free economic zone in the Donbas. ⁠65532;.

My best estimate of what they will propose is:

1. An immediate or very rapid ceasefire, essentially freezing the military line close to where it is when the agreement takes effect. I would put about a 75% probability on this being the centerpiece. Ukraine and its European partners have publicly advocated an immediate ceasefire using the current line of contact as the starting point.

2. A special arrangement for the portion of Donetsk that Ukraine still controls, rather than simply transferring it outright to Russia. This is where I think the August "free economic zone" idea becomes important. My guess is something like: Ukrainian forces withdraw from some disputed area; Russian forces do not immediately enter it; it becomes demilitarized or specially administered; economic activity resumes under some international / USA -backed mechanism. I would give roughly a 5565% probability that something resembling this is in today's proposal. Zelensky has explicitly confirmed that Washington proposed a Donbas free-economic-zone concept administered by a third party.

3. Russia keeps de facto control of most territory it currently occupies, without Ukraine being required to legally recognize Russian sovereignty over it. That distinction could be crucial. The earlier Trump framework contemplated USA De facto recognition of Russian control over Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk and freezing Kherson and Zaporizhzhia along the front. Ukraine and Europe subsequently pushed back strongly against legal recognition of territorial conquest.

4. Ukraine effectively gives up NATO membership for the foreseeable future, probably without being required to surrender its EU path. NATO itself has acknowledged that Ukrainian membership is not presently on the table, while the earlier USA Proposal went considerably further and called for a constitutional commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO. My guess is that today's version uses softer languagesomething like NATO membership being indefinitely deferredbecause that is easier for Kyiv to swallow.

5. Strong Western security guarantees for Ukraine in exchange for the territorial / NATO concessions. This could be the principal inducement to Zelensky. The USA And European states have already developed plans for postwar guarantees, potentially including an Article-5-like response if Russia attacks again and a multinational force operating inside Ukraine after hostilities stop.

6. Phased sanctions relief for Russia, probably tied to implementation rather than all sanctions disappearing on day one. That has been part of previous Trump proposals. I would expect Moscow to seek broader reliefincluding access to frozen assets and normalization of economic relationswhile Washington may offer enough initially to give Putin an economic reason to accept the deal.

7. A large humanitarian packagePOW exchanges, return of civilian detainees and Ukrainian children, perhaps restoration of Black Sea commercial arrangements. Those are relatively easy items on which both sides can claim progress and appeared prominently in the earlier USA Framework.

8. A Putin-Zelensky-Trump summit if Moscow and Kyiv accept the basic architecture. CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly raised exactly such a three-way summit during his Moscow trip last month.

The single most important question, in my view, is what the plan says about the Ukrainian-held portion of Donetsk. Putin wants the entirety of Donbas and believes Russia's battlefield position is improving; just this week he again emphasized Russian military advances while saying he was open to substantive discussions with Trump's representatives.

I therefore suspect Witkoff and Kushner are trying to construct a compromise that permits Putin to say that Ukraine has relinquished its claim to recover Donbas militarily without forcing Zelensky to formally hand the remaining Ukrainian-held cities to Russia. A demilitarized / free-economic-zone arrangement is almost tailor-made for that purpose.

My rough probability distribution for the trip would be 15% chance of a genuine breakthrough, 50% chance they narrow the differences enough to restart sustained negotiations, and 35% that little changes. The fact that they are going Moscow first and Kyiv second is significant: I expect them to present Putin with a USA Framework today, determine precisely what he would accept, and then take a modified version of it to Zelensky tomorrow. Trump has publicly described what they are carrying as a "concrete proposal," but neither the White House nor the parties have disclosed its terms.

If I had to make one fairly specific prediction, it would be: ceasefire near the present line + Ukrainian withdrawal from at least part of its remaining Donetsk positions into a demilitarized / free-economic-zone arrangement + no NATO membership + substantial USA / European security guarantees + phased Russian sanctions relief. That strikes me as the package most consistent with everything that has leaked over the past several months.

[Jmsuttr]

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2026/08...atbot-wrote-it

No way to conclusively establish its authenticity, but the eight scenarios it outlines certainly make for some interesting discussion points.

FWIW, the Black Mirror hacking group has been around for a while and has leaked documents before (Rostec files in 2025, etc).

[Sirioja]

It's interesting how Putin cherry picks the aspects of the USSR that fit his agenda. He seems to like the authoritarian part but he seems a little light on ideology. At least the USSR pretended to follow a doctrine. I read an interesting article yesterday in the WSJ dealing with the Russian Army's destruction of Ukrainian libraries. Talk about cancelling a culture!

I meant USSR only to invade countries which did belong to, but not to share his money of course, when he is fully capitalist with his hidden huge castle.

[Jake993]

Putin just dreaming of USSR again when he was a nobody in KGB, like Trump wants Greenland, Venezuela and others. 2 dangerous megaloman.

It's interesting how Putin cherry picks the aspects of the USSR that fit his agenda. He seems to like the authoritarian part but he seems a little light on ideology. At least the USSR pretended to follow a doctrine. I read an interesting article yesterday in the WSJ dealing with the Russian Army's destruction of Ukrainian libraries. Talk about cancelling a culture!

[Sirioja]

Now this project was named Forrest Gump in honour of Forrest who was dumb but knew how to run.

Since audio and video files of the project were released as the case of the previous Midas, they send chills along the spine of everyone who reads and hears them in native Russian.

https://www.politico.eu/article/volo...e-iryna-mudra/

Operation Forrest Gump: Anti-corruption raid heaps pressure on Zelenskyy.

Ukraine's president fires a top aide after the National Anti-Corruption Bureau alleged a group of top officials laundered money to pay a former minister's bail.

August 19,2026 3:35 pm CET.

By Veronika Melkozerova and Milena Wlde.

KYIV Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired Iryna Mudra as deputy head of his office Wednesday, hours after anti-corruption watchdogs searched her workplace as part of a sweeping probe into an alleged criminal organization.

"Iryna Romanivna Mudra is hereby dismissed from the post of Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in a decree published Wednesday..

Do you know the huge castle of Putin? When millions of Russians are poor and suffer from his inflation, when he was educated in ex USSR, but he forgot kolkhozes and sovkhozes. Good point is not anymore much petrol in huge Russia, less money for Putin wars and hackings.

[Questner]

Now this project was named Forrest Gump in honour of Forrest who was dumb but knew how to run.

Since audio and video files of the project were released as the case of the previous Midas, they send chills along the spine of everyone who reads and hears them in native Russian.

https://www.politico.eu/article/volo...e-iryna-mudra/

Operation Forrest Gump: Anti-corruption raid heaps pressure on Zelenskyy.

Ukraine's president fires a top aide after the National Anti-Corruption Bureau alleged a group of top officials laundered money to pay a former minister's bail.

August 19,2026 3:35 pm CET.

By Veronika Melkozerova and Milena Wälde.

KYIV — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired Iryna Mudra as deputy head of his office Wednesday, hours after anti-corruption watchdogs searched her workplace as part of a sweeping probe into an alleged criminal organization.

"Iryna Romanivna Mudra is hereby dismissed from the post of Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in a decree published Wednesday. The one-line order gave no reason for her removal.

The firing adds to a turbulent stretch for Zelenskyy. Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov called Tuesday for wartime elections and denounced corruption and a systemic governance crisis, weeks after his ouster triggered prolonged street protests.

Earlier Wednesday, Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau, or NABU, announced a new operation targeting an alleged criminal organization involving current and former lawmakers and senior officials in Zelenskyy's office. The bureau said it was carrying out searches with the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, or SAP.

The investigation, dubbed Operation Forrest Gump, alleges the group laundered around 150 million Ukrainian hryvnia, equivalent to roughly $3 million, through state-owned Sense Bank to fund bail for former Energy Minister German Galushchenko, a key figure in last year's $100 million Midas corruption scandal.

Writing on Facebook, Mudra said: "I will defend my name in a legal manner – calmly and consistently. ".

NABU did not name Mudra directly in its video statement, referring only to a deputy head of the president's administration, but searched her office.

Ukraine's corruption watchdog released recordings in which a woman identified in the video only as a deputy head of the president's office can be heard saying: "Fighting corruption is a wrong approach. Corruption has to be systemized and controlled. " NABU did not identify the woman by name.

This article has been updated with a comment from Iryna Mudra.