Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[Sirioja]

In that case, and knowing a vaccine will take a year at least, we have 2 options, close for everyone OR close for riskier people and open for less risky, there are very high evidence that most healthy people under 65 years old will have very mild sympetmes or no symptoms at all, so I think Sweden got it right, and I think FKK should allow people under 65 to enter the club until there is a vaccine.

I know this will not happen, but I think dealing with the virus with one strategy for ALL ages is non sense.

Sweden have the worst capital under virus, competing with down under NYC, but I agree when in France more than 90% of our too many deaths are more than 65 yo, but obese, diabetic, with cancer treatment, lungs and heart problems are also in danger and also for relatives around you, but some guys go for AO and return to wife after. Each one play own risk, but I think Germany is thinking about R0 when they have so many brothels and prostitutes from many origins. New law didn't work efficient except for registration.

[Sirioja]

This was written on 23 March, took place not far from Leman lake and Geneva, 2 Colombian prostitutes, the one 36 yo infected had clients who can be and bring back at home, same like what could happen in brothels, one infected with no symptom, no fever, infect a healthy girl also with no symptom so she doesn't know, a superstar who makes 10 clients in her day, but most not so healthy, some return to wife at home who has diabetes or breast cancer, some go to another club on next day or next week, and then try to calculate running R0. I don t know when brothels will reopen but I m sure really impossible to prevent virus from coming to brothels, even with Europe closed borders, even with quarantine for UK as they do, but even virus is now very slow in Western Europe, but still killing few, despite Summer heat, protection used now in Europe, and what will happen on Autumn when will be 10 degrees? I think nobody know, but better to be aware brothels are risky playfield and not only for this virus, reason why hygiene is so important for me and why I tell when girls don t even have to take shower, when a previous client came on her body, or after going to toilets and You need to wait to make come wet not to taste bitter.

I think she should be prosecuted, not for prostitution which is legal in France, but because she kept on working when infected. France should cure her and next plane to Bogota. Remind me a crazy guy, I think to remember UK, who wanted to infect others with HIV he got, or US images a french journalist took about people threatening coughing in face other people.

[Pessimist]

You are correct in that we should not be using the term "scientific consensus" loosely. This could takes decades to establish. Nevertheless, this was the verbiage used in the Director of National Intelligence statement issued on April 30 which stated the virus "was not manmade or genetically modified".

Scientists' primary reasons for casting doubt on the "man-made" conspiracy theory are as follows: (1) manipulation leaves evidence that other virologists can detect. (2) virologists are not clever enough to construct a coronavirus that is harmful to humans unless they use one of the six other coronaviruses known to be harmful to humans as a template. SARS-CoV-2 only has an 80 percent resemblance to SARS-CoV-1 that triggered the outbreak in 2003.

As stated before scientists do not know the origins (zoonotic path it took to infect humans). But a peer-reviewed paper, which I will repost the link to states "Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus". This paper has been cited 114 times. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9..

First of all, thank you for the kind reply. Very helpful.

"we should not be using the term "scientific consensus" loosely" : glad you feel that way. I quite agree with you.

"verbiage used in the Director of National Intelligence" : Question: Is Director of National Intelligence the gold standard in your view? Are they supposed to be the most objective, scientifically oriented organization, the standard setting body so to speak? Obviously, if they are, then we should follow their lead. I was not aware that they are considered to be such gold standard.

"Scientists' primary reasons for casting doubt. " : I am curious if this is *all* the scientists, some scientists, most of the scientists. Any quantification would be helpful. For example, 99.9% of the scientists, or some such percent. Would that be virologists, epidemiologists, bio statisticians, all of them? US / China / EU / India / Japan /. ? I hope this reference to scientists is not a euphemism for the "consensus" which I think you now believe to be "loosely used".

"scientists do not know the origins" - I have the same question as above, I. E. Who are the scientists in this reference. I personally believe there are investigations going on at the moment and it is too early to say anything conclusive. I keep scratching my head why some scientists are still doing investigations if this is such a settled question -- for example, no one is investigating that earth goes around the sun. That to a lay person like me would be settled science.

"The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2" - thank you for the link. The date of this paper is March 17,2020. Is this the most authoritative paper in your view? Yes, it has 114 citations but it is tough to place in context, given that it is a Nature paper, it was from mid March and research intensity related to Corona has increased since west is now being impacted much more. Any future work after mid March would naturally cite a paper from Nature, given that this is a new topic which is of interest to many scientists working to solve this problem all over the world.

The paper says the following "It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus" - they do not say what this probability is supposed to be. The further say "since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible" - again, they are not able to definitively say a lab is not involved. Finally, they conclude with "More scientific data could swing the balance of evidence to favor one hypothesis over another". Their entire theme is that based on the evidence and data they currently have access to, they have made some probabilistic estimates, but just that -- probabilistic and estimate, about a novel virus.

"My point is the scientific evidence has absolved CCP from genetically manipulation" -- it has? I would love to see any link to this particular claim. Would that be the aforementioned consensus? Or is it the probabilistic estimate in the one Nature paper, whose authors do not have access to the source info and which they make a clear note of ("Obtaining related viral sequences from animal sources would be the most definitive way of revealing viral origins".

Absolved is a very definitive claim. "Scientific evidence has absolved" is an even bigger claim. It would be lovely to see your links to the resources in which such a claim can be verified. For lay men like me who are not at the obvious high level of scientific learning as others, it would be even better if this absolution is presented in black and white.

Thank you again for your very helpful answer.

[Tuber19]

same like what could happen in brothels, one infected with no symptom, no fever, infect a healthy girl also with no symptom so she doesn't know, a superstar who makes 10 clients in her day, but most not so healthy, some return to wife at home who has diabetes or breast cancer, some go to another club on next day or next week, and then try to calculate running R0. .

In that case, and knowing a vaccine will take a year at least, we have 2 options, close for everyone OR close for riskier people and open for less risky, there are very high evidence that most healthy people under 65 years old will have very mild sympetmes or no symptoms at all, so I think Sweden got it right, and I think FKK should allow people under 65 to enter the club until there is a vaccine.

I know this will not happen, but I think dealing with the virus with one strategy for ALL ages is non sense.

[Pistons]

The way you can that this is how it works, is when you read articles about the various topics, and everything is rethorics. While there is zero scientific hard evidence involved in the article itself. In other words, paid propaganda.

And when do people pay for propaganda. Well according to two renowned owners of big pr bureaus I know: 'only when there is something to hide. If there is nothing to hide, they just assume there is no reason to pay for the PR'.

[Pistons]

Your assumption is that there is a pre-existing scientific consensus and the burden is on the people to disprove it otherwise the consensus stands.

Are there are any studies which are not pre-print but peer reviewed and accepted by majority / most of virologists and epidemiologists that traces the exact path of the virus from whatever is the original source to humans, and importantly do such studies conclusively prove that no Wuhan lab was ever involved?

If so, please do provide such links.

It would also be useful to know what is your definition of consensus, and who are part of this consensus that you have referenced many times. Please also state what is the exact wording of this consensus when was this consensus formed. Thank you, much appreciated.

This is part of what I like to call communication strategy. You will never find what you are asking for, because it does not exist. The same can be said for many types of scientific consensuses. Peer reviews when found, are always riddled with holes. When I wrote my master thesis, I was even told by my professor to cut down on the criticism, because it was twice the size of the rest of my paper. And I wrote the same length of criticism for another thesis I read. There is a consensus I was told that it is not normal to write all possible criticism down. Since then there would be nothing left.

And this thing about 'scientific consensus' is a framing word to imply above and below rethorics (can't recall the English term), so that no one who is lacking a professor degree will dare to object. Usually these types of strategies are paid for through a communication bureau.

[McAdonis]

Your assumption is that there is a pre-existing scientific consensus and the burden is on the people to disprove it otherwise the consensus stands.

Are there are any studies which are not pre-print but peer reviewed and accepted by majority / most of virologists and epidemiologists that traces the exact path of the virus from whatever is the original source to humans, and importantly do such studies conclusively prove that no Wuhan lab was ever involved?

You are correct in that we should not be using the term "scientific consensus" loosely. This could takes decades to establish. Nevertheless, this was the verbiage used in the Director of National Intelligence statement issued on April 30 which stated the virus "was not manmade or genetically modified".

Scientists' primary reasons for casting doubt on the "man-made" conspiracy theory are as follows: (1) manipulation leaves evidence that other virologists can detect. (2) virologists are not clever enough to construct a coronavirus that is harmful to humans unless they use one of the six other coronaviruses known to be harmful to humans as a template. SARS-CoV-2 only has an 80 percent resemblance to SARS-CoV-1 that triggered the outbreak in 2003.

As stated before scientists do not know the origins (zoonotic path it took to infect humans). But a peer-reviewed paper, which I will repost the link to states "Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus". This paper has been cited 114 times. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9.

Preprint allows authors to get feedback. Some Indian researchers posted a paper to bioRxiv, suggesting similarities between SARS-CoV-2 and HIV. "A stream of comments on Twitter and bioRxiv soon followed, questioning the methodology and conclusions, and the paper was withdrawn": https://www.timeshighereducation.com...tial-preprints#survey-answer.

Both CCP and POTUS seem to want to make "factual claims" without evidence. Politicians are conmen. My point is the scientific evidence has absolved CCP from genetically manipulation. But that doesn't mean that CCP is completely innocent. Perhaps the Wuhan scientists were studying a naturally-occurring virus that they knew to be harmful to humans and did not disclose this to the world. Perhaps the outbreak was accidental. And perhaps they "deliberately" waited two extra days before locking down Wuhan, in hopes that the virus would spread enough to inflict damage to other nations. That still neatly fits into the POTUS' narrative of CCP weaponising the virus.

[BigBuddy69]

To be precise, the girl has all the symptoms of covid 19 and had 13 customers, but the paper doesn't say if they were infected.

[TeaInTheSun]

Cross-posting from Berlin thread. French language article, so someone should verify translation but I believe WG in France infected 13 men, who then went on to infect their families. Wonder if this might influence decisions to reopen:

https://m.lematin.ch/articles/31932243

For this reason, I do not understand how there can be mongers who count the days, such as prisoners who cross out the days on the wall they need to leave, to find the door opened of FKK if there is a high percentage of infecting you and then infecting your relatives with covid. If you are over 60 years old, think that it may be the last time you are with a girl who will jerk you off with gloves. What a pathetic ending for a monger! Think in another hobby until at least next year.

[Sirioja]

They are stopped on autobahn, thus they must be worse at drifting while running at 100? OK.

Now most of German cars are more than 1500 kg, many more than 1700/1800 kgs, full of electronics. Why are they stopped driving 20 km / h their Mercedes or BMW on snow on autobahn? Just because they are scared by their car balance, when french cars are so easy and safe for grip even on snow, even without Winter tires. A clio would make ridiculous any Mercedes or BM or even Porsche on snow. With so heavy and full of electronic, just try to dream about drift. Because I found xdrive improved BMW balance with still around 60% power on rear wheels, but what a mistake I made taking quattro as I tell Audi. Maybe worth for trucks Q7, Q5, but really not sporty and I don t understand how it work on rear wheels when maybe 75% on front wheels, but really bad feeling about rear wheels, if I could and I asked Audi France how to put off, impossible unfortunately and they tell me: what You do with your car? Same like when I tell them I have to correct quattro reactions but real exhausting sport, braking with left foot and always right on accelerator, same position than in karting, to try to correct without losing time to move feet. More efficient when You want to be fast, just race technique like kicking in brakes to shorten distance. If You want to drift, easier to put off electronic and no 4 wheels drive, rare like pandas in Germany, maybe trabant.

[Sirioja]

Cross-posting from Berlin thread. French language article, so someone should verify translation but I believe WG in France infected 13 men, who then went on to infect their families. Wonder if this might influence decisions to reopen:

https://m.lematin.ch/articles/31932243

This was written on 23 March, took place not far from Leman lake and Geneva, 2 Colombian prostitutes, the one 36 yo infected had clients who can be and bring back at home, same like what could happen in brothels, one infected with no symptom, no fever, infect a healthy girl also with no symptom so she doesn't know, a superstar who makes 10 clients in her day, but most not so healthy, some return to wife at home who has diabetes or breast cancer, some go to another club on next day or next week, and then try to calculate running R0. I don t know when brothels will reopen but I m sure really impossible to prevent virus from coming to brothels, even with Europe closed borders, even with quarantine for UK as they do, but even virus is now very slow in Western Europe, but still killing few, despite Summer heat, protection used now in Europe, and what will happen on Autumn when will be 10 degrees? I think nobody know, but better to be aware brothels are risky playfield and not only for this virus, reason why hygiene is so important for me and why I tell when girls don t even have to take shower, when a previous client came on her body, or after going to toilets and You need to wait to make come wet not to taste bitter.

[Pessimist]

As Delta Indigo noted, the papers you linked do not contradict the scientific consensus.

Also your link comes from a pre-print server..

Your assumption is that there is a pre-existing scientific consensus and the burden is on the people to disprove it otherwise the consensus stands.

Are there are any studies which are not pre-print but peer reviewed and accepted by majority / most of virologists and epidemiologists that traces the exact path of the virus from whatever is the original source to humans, and importantly do such studies conclusively prove that no Wuhan lab was ever involved?

If so, please do provide such links.

It would also be useful to know what is your definition of consensus, and who are part of this consensus that you have referenced many times. Please also state what is the exact wording of this consensus when was this consensus formed. Thank you, much appreciated.

[Sirioja]

My intent was not to talk about the climate change. It was more about politicians dismissing science. There is supposedly 97 percent consensus among scientists on global warming. In early March when there were few cases in the USA, Neil DeGrasse Tyson considered the CV-19 response to be a social experiment. During the first 3 minutes of this video, he says "The experiment is will people listen to scientists": https://youtu.be/jB4FUHHMI24.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthca...ce-backgrounds

https://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes....ct-scientists/

Covid is a killer, but climate crisis will kill much more, with more and more storms, Bangladesh will become new Atlantis, real white bears, not old fat in brothels, will kill more and more when they won t have anymore and soon home on ice disappearing. When US and China don't care about pollution, 2 big murderers, I cry every winter when I see my beloved mountains, Alpe Huez glacier 3200 meters high is dying, Grande Motte Tignes glacier 3500 meters received 15 meters snow falling on Winter 20 years ago, now they are happy when they have 5 meters on whole Winter, I remember when I was a child at ski, having 50 cm snow falling in the night, now when we have 15 cm fresh snow, this is Christmas, lets go free riding, taking risks with rocks just hidden by 10 cm, kicking in. Sad planet humans are killing. Nevertheless, even too late for ski, but was so happy man today starting my Summer tour for 4 months ln this Summer. Since November, after 3 first kilometers to train heart and put it in rhythm, I was impressed by level in legendary la Madeleine. I want to make my Summer great enjoyable, when I had no Winter because of fucking killer virus, but they also send us and to our children, consequences from their heavy pollution. Our children are more and more fat and diabetic from US foods and with asthma from pollution. Not so healthy to fight and fuck virus.

[Pistons]

They are stopped on autobahn, thus they must be worse at drifting while running at 100? OK.

[McAdonis]

Cross-posting from Berlin thread. French language article, so someone should verify translation but I believe WG in France infected 13 men, who then went on to infect their families. Wonder if this might influence decisions to reopen:

https://m.lematin.ch/articles/31932243