American Politics

[EihTooms]

An inverted yield curve often precedes a recession, and its unwinding does not. See, for example:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...b72e4af4&ei=31

"The financial market's top recession warning, the inverted yield curve, looks ready to end its record stretch of flashing a warning signal. ".

Or: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve.

"It has often been said that the inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable leading indicators for economic recession during the postWorld War II era.

Exactly. The fact that more than 5% of any poll respondents could possibly conclude that Repubs are "better at handling the economy" than Dems, particularly Biden vs Trump, is simply a testament to how effective Mainstream Media's constant elevating of Repub failures vs denigrating Dem successes has been.

BTW, I highlighted in bold your accurate and fully substantiated point about R vs D economic growth because I have found that is the best way that I know of to override the auto-correct feature on this site when we use initials in that way.

[MarquisdeSade1]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/o...antitrust.html

[SubCmdr]

"It never made sense but what would trigger a selloff"?

Really very simple, the Yen got stronger. Dollar got weaker in relationship to a huge trading partner. 20 Trillion in carry trades are being unwound. It's worse than the final scene out of trading places.

12% Sell off in TriFi. 30% Sell Off of BTC. Few days later BTC back to 56 K where it was a couple of weeks ago. This is normal volatility for those ACTUALLY familiar with markets. If you had correct positions sizes, investments within your range of risk tolerance good risk management strategies they its all good. NVDA is down but AMD is up. That is the market. Go Figure.

Scared money don't make no money!

[EihTooms]

No failed China trade war? Why is it failed? Because you are anti America and pro China?

I see you are still upset we didn't get that 3rd and 4th term of Bubba, that wanted TPP would still be in effect if not for Our Lord and Savior.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/b...enophobia.html

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacifi...attack/3246270

Yes the Chinese are livid because the jig is up.

Yes they are so angry because the trade war against them failed..

What did Trump's tax on American consumers and plunging the American Manufacturing and Agriculture Industries into Recession so deep he had to add billions more to the deficit by issuing emergency welfare checks just to keep them afloat accomplish for America?

How about zero.

On top of which it is highly likely that the reason Chinese anus-licker Trump defunded and removed those Early Warning Pandrmic Prevention teams from those Chinese labs in 2018 and 2019 contrary to all expert warnings for him not to do something so dangerous and stupid was simply to flatter Xi's ego in the midst of those failed negotiations that, "Oh, don't worry, Master. See? We trust you and your people to be honest actors and responsible to alert the world ASAP if any deadly virus begins to spread in and around your research labs. We trust you. ".

Which was exactly the wrong thing to do with the wrong people at the wrong time. A Trump specialty. Trump's Pandemic was created precisely because, AS EXPECTED, Xi and his people kept the spread of that virus and their knowledge of its virulence a secret for a few critical weeks until it was no longer possible to confine it to one region in China.

Thanks to your lord and savior Trump.

China bought none of the extra $200 billion of US exports in Trump's trade deal

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-...mps-trade-deal

[Huacho]

There are a lot of markers freaking people out with supposedly 100% accurate
measures of recession: the surge in the unemployment percentage, the unwinding of the inverted yield curve

An inverted yield curve often precedes a recession, and its unwinding does not. See, for example:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...b72e4af4&ei=31

"The financial market's top recession warning, the inverted yield curve, looks ready to end its record stretch of flashing a warning signal. ".

Or: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve.

"It has often been said that the inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable leading indicators for economic recession during the post–World War II era. ".

Or: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve.

"The inverted curve reflects bond investors' expectations for a decline in longer-term interest rates, a view typically associated with recessions. ".

As to unemployment rates and recessions, even neocons like the "Sahm Rule," where you look at the three month moving average and not a random spike. But what you, personally (and others of your ilk), probably need to look at when deciding if "Democrats are douches" is probably the growth in real GDP during are administrations and the administrations. Here's your data source; let's see what you come up with.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1/

Hint: you lose!

[Elvis 2008]

So this is the world according to QAnon/MAGA conspiracists?

--Trump is 75% orange, but sees himself as a white man (...kkkk!)
--Trump is 100% an asshole, but thinks he decent human being

Bottom line is, Obama, Veep Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren are 100% American. Period!

I thought the point of moderation was to protect people from fighting or being personally disparaging. Well, on this forum, it is literally promoting the Democratic POV. Shoot, if you are going to erase my post, then you should erase the one linked to it as well. You Dems cannot even censor right. You are so paranoid you are censoring politics on a hooker board? Somebody needs to get laid.

I know the incredibly objective George Stephanopoulos went on this idiotic rant with a black Congressman when Trump questioned Kamala's race. It was painful to see a white guy so offended on this topic. Hey, George, her fucking own birth certificate says she is 75% white, and she says that she is black and before she said she was Indian. And now your sex is a preference too?

It is funny that some of the whitest guys I know got genetic testing done and the results showed they were 1 or 2% black. Can they say they are black? Or black women?

What is so funny is this is what Kamala is running on, identity. How can we be racist when we do not what black is? How can we be sexist when we do not know what women are? What the hell do diversion and sexual equality even mean now?

I will make it easy for everyone. If you are Republican, you are racist and sexist, and we Democrats do not have to define what those terms mean. In fact, asking us to define those terms is proof you are racist and sexist. My God, you are so offensive, Elvis.

[FFlintstone69]

(...kkkk!) More gish gallop, served up to say nothing at all. However, you might be right about "Democrats good, Republicans evil", if you say so.

Hey, just saying, orange is just not a good look on most dudes (see below), save George Hamilton or Ashoka, Togruta Jedi Padawan! (...kkkk!)



YOUR obvious failure to realize YOUR own "color-blind" rhetoric of division from your post, that Trump and Repubs sow everyday, is just more evidence of the pitiful failure to see all legal peoples and citizens no matter their color, as Americans. PERIOD!

I'll let your own Repub, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, tell you, in her own words:

• "Think about it", Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) told reporters Wednesday. "What have we been talking about all week long? Childless cat women, DEI candidates. Now is she black? Is she Indian?" ... "Maybe they don't know how to handle the campaign. And so you default to issues that should simply not be an issue."
  
  Senate Republicans forgot Trump's recklessness. It's back to haunt them.
  https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...ublicans-race/

Over the last several weeks, Repubs have constantly tried to get Trump to talk about administrative plans and policies for a future America (other than Project 2025, which he denies), but since he has no vision for America (other than his next grift), good ol' Trump reverts back to his rut of misogyny and racism. In other words his comfort zone of issues.

Do you know how she got that Senate seat?

And to bust you on more of your bullshit.

I dare you to show us you didn't pull this out of your ass like everything else you subject us to with your keyboard diarrhea.

"Trump is an American Hitler" cmon be a big boy LMAO.

[Spidy]

Back when I shorted oil, it took a long time for the market to get it right. {...yada, yada, yada}

Yes, thank you for yet another thrilling, episode of your market genius! Riveting as always!

What I told people is you know your going to cause deaths when you shut down the economy and make everyone poorer. ...

We went $10 trillion further in debt due to a virus with 0. 2% mortality and lost trillions more due to decreased economic activity. The Covid plan ranks up there with the worst economic fuckups in our country's history.

Yeah, okay sensei, calm down with the COVID market conspiracies,...it's just the market signaling to the FED, a rate cut is long overdue and perhaps a little profit taking.

As I've said before, "Even the sun shines up a dog's ass some days". But in YOUR case, you've been calling for a market crash and economic recession, for almost the last 4 years now. And you've been WRONG every time!

So the sun hasn't exactly shone much up your ass for four years. But I'm sure, if you say it long enough and often enough...that sun will surely shine some day! (....kkkk!)

[EihTooms]

1. Disagree: 9/11 may still have happened. Bin Laden planned the attacks for many years before it was executed. To say that this would not happen is a reach.

2. Agree: I don't think that a Gore administration would have pushed into Iraq, as history unfold. My OPINION / Speculation is that Bush / Cheney wanted to go into Iraq, and this slim opening gave them their excuse to go in.

3. Disagree: At the end of the milennium, there were weaknesses in the financial markets, mainly dot com bubble that would still have happened. One can blame the previous administration for this situation to happen due to new technologies without guardrails. *catch-22* can't advance innovations without unleashing technology / to prevent fraud and implosion ("regulations") is needed. Same discussion as pertain to crypto today. It isn't whether we should have regulations or not, but rather how much.

4. One of the two would have happened. The second one (Housing) still may have happened. Although the Bush administration pushed for home ownership, I didn't see the push back from the other side either.

5. Agree: At the end of the Clinton era, there was a surplus that would have extended under Gore. Instead of maintaining it for a rainy day, it was given back to the market / tax cuts. By itself, it wasn't harmful, but with the bubble and unpaid wars, a perfect storm for deficit, and its continuation.

Disagree: No Inflation is a myth, in any era. Carter / Regan was the beginning of the hyper inflation era, Clinton administration / Feds masked the problem with the change in calculating inflation, taking out food and energy. Gingrich was the speaker at the time, so can't claim victory on any sides.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...sues/ci2-4.pdf

Like all sci-fi movies (time travel), yes it would be different, but not everything is rainbows and unicorns.

- The difference between the seriousness with which Clinton and his Administration regarded and responded to Intel on potential terrorist attacks re Presidential Daily Briefings, for one, and the way GW Bush and his administration virtually shrugged it off and dismissed it was shocking. Imo, the way the Counter Terrorism Chief who worked for both testified in the 9/11 hearings is most telling. It didn't even require much push back and response to possible domestic terrorist attack "chatter" to get the bad guys to abandon the idea, as happened under Clinton. By stark contrast, Bush and Rice did nothing in response to the rather specific PDB intel prior to 9/11.

https://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS...ion/index.html

- The Financial Crisis hit almost 8 years after Clinton left office. The huge wave of Subprime / Liar Loans did not begin under Clinton. There were practically no more floated than usual under Clinton. However, they flourished under Bush. And in large part for a reason you alluded to; home ownership increased under GW Bush. In fact, it was about the only notable economic "gain" Bush could point to during his "jobless" economy. No way was his Treasury Department's Office of Thrift Supervision going to get in there and demand banks and lending institutions enforce the non Liar Loan regulations that were on the books and spoil that one and only Bush Economy goose laying a sort of but illusery golden egg. Especially since enforcing regulations on anything, particularly banks, is anathema to Repub economic philosophy.

In short, Clinton's Treasury Department did its job because they knew the boss expected them to do its job while Bush's Treasury Department did not do its job because they knew the boss did not even want it to do its job.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econ...administration

There was little push back by members of Congress simply because Bush's Office of Thrift Supervision, whose job it was to monitor and report on those things, not Congress, was telling Congress everything is fine, nothing to see here.

- I would say hyper-Inflation began under Nixon / Ford. Ford's way of dealing with it was to encourage everyone to wear WIN lapel buttons; Whip Inflation Now.

Carter's Fed Chairman appointee, Paul Volcker, was vetted by Carter and appointed in late 1979 precisely because he was willing to do the unpopular thing in order to tame it; raise Fed Funds Rates, same as the Fed Chair Powell this time around. And Carter was willing for him to do it during an election year. By early 1980, almost a year before Reagan took office, Volcker's methods were already working and Inflation (and lending interest rates) was beginning to decline and continued to decline into Reagan's first year in office. No, not in a straight line month after month. Nothing works that way. But the downward trend had definitely begun in early 1980 and continued in that direction over the next 3+ years.

Anyway, I am not saying there would have been no ordinary and normal inflation had Trump not made every decision a World Leader ought to make if his goal was to produce a Pandemic. I am talking about the elevated level of inflation the world experienced as an unavoidable outcome of it.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.co...flation-rates/

[Woodman09]

Walls remind me of the weak characters in Fargo-.

Interesting analysis about Tim Walls-- from a Black Conservative Perserspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0Ah6YKevaQ

[CheckMate1]

My god. Imagine what a different world we would all be living in if only those 2 elections had not been stolen:

No Attack on 9/11.

No 900+ lies by Bush-Cheney plunging us into 2 Repub counterproductive quagmire wars in the Middle East.

No Financial Crisis.

No two Bear Market Crashes in the broad USA Stock Market.

No $Trillions added to the deficit just to create 1 million fewer jobs with that Repub legislation than without it.

No failed China trade war that plunged the USA Manufacturing and Agriculture Industries into Recession so deep Trump had to issue emergency welfare checks just to keep them afloat.

No Trump's Pandemic.

No one million Americans Mass Murdered and millions more around the globe due to Trump's Pandemic Covid.

No business and school closures.

No Millions upon Millions of jobs wiped out.

No two more Bear Broad Market Crashes in the broad USA Stock Market.

No Inflation.

No skyrocketing costs of rent, food, gas, etc.

Yes, a very different world.

1. Disagree: 9/11 may still have happened. Bin Laden planned the attacks for many years before it was executed. To say that this would not happen is a reach.

2. Agree: I don't think that a Gore administration would have pushed into Iraq, as history unfold. My OPINION / Speculation is that Bush / Cheney wanted to go into Iraq, and this slim opening gave them their excuse to go in.

3. Disagree: At the end of the milennium, there were weaknesses in the financial markets, mainly dot com bubble that would still have happened. One can blame the previous administration for this situation to happen due to new technologies without guardrails. *catch-22* can't advance innovations without unleashing technology / to prevent fraud and implosion ("regulations") is needed. Same discussion as pertain to crypto today. It isn't whether we should have regulations or not, but rather how much.

4. One of the two would have happened. The second one (Housing) still may have happened. Although the Bush administration pushed for home ownership, I didn't see the push back from the other side either.

5. Agree: At the end of the Clinton era, there was a surplus that would have extended under Gore. Instead of maintaining it for a rainy day, it was given back to the market / tax cuts. By itself, it wasn't harmful, but with the bubble and unpaid wars, a perfect storm for deficit, and its continuation.

Disagree: No Inflation is a myth, in any era. Carter / Regan was the beginning of the hyper inflation era, Clinton administration / Feds masked the problem with the change in calculating inflation, taking out food and energy. Gingrich was the speaker at the time, so can't claim victory on any sides.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...sues/ci2-4.pdf

Like all sci-fi movies (time travel), yes it would be different, but not everything is rainbows and unicorns.

[MarquisdeSade1]

Just curious, what do you suppose Trump means when he tells people at his rallies that they don't have to vote because he will "win" anyway?

Trump told his fans they 'don't have to vote' and should 'watch' other voters instead.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...o-vote-2023-10

Do you think it might have something to do with this:

These Swing State Election Officials Are Pro-Trump Election Deniers.
Nearly 70 pro-Trump conspiracists are election officials in key battleground counties and they are poised to make a giant mess on Election Day.
July 29, 2024.

No failed China trade war? Why is it failed? Because you are anti America and pro China?

I see you are still upset we didn't get that 3rd and 4th term of Bubba, that wanted TPP would still be in effect if not for Our Lord and Savior.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/b...enophobia.html

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacifi...attack/3246270

Yes the Chinese are livid because the jig is up.

Yes they are so angry because the trade war against them failed..

[Elvis 2008]

https://newrepublic.com/post/184271/...-book-unhumans

This looks like a must read for all the great eruditus men on this board ASAP.

These are the first two paragraphs of the article: Republican vice presidential nominee J. The. Vance has found himself yet again in hot water, after it was uncovered that he promoted a book decrying progressives as "unhuman," written by a far-right conspiracy theorist.

Unhumans: The Secret History of Communist Revolutions (and How to Crush Them) was written by the Pizzagate guy, Jack Posobiec, and ghostwriter Joshua Lisec, with a foreword by the recently imprisoned MAGA movement architect Steve Bannon.

I stopped right there. This is another Democratic douche let's get offended trope. It is a fucking book. On the other hand, Democratic douches are cool with making up laws to criminally convict their opposition, throwing out the votes of their nominee, a literal coup in the party, machine gun wielding FBI agents at the house of the ex-president, and the made up Russiagate among others.

And the Democratic douche vax rhetoric may have been the worse. People who are not vaxxed should be denied medical care and allowed to die. That IS unhuman.

The whole thing reads like a Spidy post: insult after insult and no information. If Spidy does not write for the New Republic, he should. They would love him there.

[Elvis 2008]

The market is overvalued, and it's been so for a long, long time. We've been overdue for a major correction, but I'm not sure this is actually it. All I know is that my retirement fund is safe!

There are a lot of markers freaking people out with supposedly 100% accurate measures of recession: the surge in the unemployment percentage, the unwinding of the inverted yield curve, and on a practical level a guy on CNBC said consumer balance sheets were never worse. I did know the consumer is in more debt than ever. On the flip side, there was calm. Things are not as bad as 2008, and I think what was weird is everyone was bringing up different reasons for the fall.

I really did not understand the yen carry trade at first. Apparently, speculators are borrowing in yen at lower rates and then buying things with higher yields. That is fine unless the yen appreciates and I think it went up 12% so if you are levered at 10:1, that increase literally put you under water unless what you bought went way up in price. That is probably the best explanation for the sell off I have seen.

But yeah, I am not sure it is here either. Usually October is the worst month for crashes.

[MarquisdeSade1]

MDS, I quizzed someone on another forum about this, and he repeated the same "2020 was the safest election there ever was" nonsense. The election being stolen is a theory. I asked him what the facts were to support that theory. He could not give one. All he could do was launch personal comments about me.

You would hope all Americans would care if this election were rigged, but what I have seen from Democrats is we won so who cares? Given that attitude, it is gong to be up to Republicans to make sure the election is fair. Democrats do not care about having fair elections; they only care if they win.

Even (especially) to cheaters, like the CBS poll this week, they are trying to rig the outcome early by pretending it is already close.

So when "election day" rolls around they can try to make it more plausible that Harris won ala Scumbag Joe in 2020 or JFK in 1960.

Same thing with exit polls those are the easiest to rig, they can report any numbers they want ala Caracas last week.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1d10453zno

The balls of Scumbag Joe to call others cheaters, they truly are shameless scumbags!!