American Politics

**SubCmdr** · 03-13-25 19:41

Originally Posted by Elvis2008 [View Original Post]

After trudging through all of SC's post, he finally got to why he bought Nvidia and why. I was not convinced but I did a deep dive on the subject just to be sure.

Best piece I found was here, and it is a free download: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insight...little-benefit.

Thank you Elvis 2008. You pointed me to a very informative report. You also made an excellent logical argument the lays out why you have taken the positions that you have. We can all make money in our preferred ways. I am not going to let the report, or the arguments by Elvis deter my investments in to NVDA or AMD. But he will also make money buying bonds. Which one of us will achieve greater returns. Who knows? Because I have never concerned myself the the value of things that I don't own.

I'm comfortable with my NVDA returns so far. I will continue to accumulate AMD. Yes, this is a 10 year play.

**EihTooms** · 03-13-25 19:15

When I posted this reply earlier I inadvertently only included a link for the Biden-Harris Administration's accomplishments on behalf of our Military Servicemembers and their Families. Which is already far greater than anything Trump ever accomplished in his 1st term. But I actually meant to include the link for his and Harris' entire presidential accomplishments but neglected to include it.

So I have now rectified that oversight here:

Originally Posted by Elvis2008 [View Original Post]

It is funny how neither of you listed anything. When I read through Biden's accomplishments, they all involved printing money to pay for something or just being in place when the pandemic ended. In fact, cranking up the government printing press is what Trump did as well. I do not see any difference between Biden's and Trump's policies.

But the real point is if Biden was so damned great, why did you all get rid of him before the 2024 election? We all know the reason is because he would not win.

As far as that goes, Ronald Reagan was showing signs of dementia towards the end of his last term, and he was so popular I think he would have won in 1988 had he run..

I often cite 2-3 Biden legislative accomplishments, which is already 1-2 more than you could cite for Trump's Pandemic Part 1 term. And the RESULTS are easily researched in, say, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the months and months and months of jobs reports. And I have several times posted links for how typical American Working Men and Women's purchasing power in the past couple of years already surpassed that of 2019 by hundreds of dollars per year.

But if you really want a complete list from a perfectly non-partisan source, here ya' go.

Enjoy:

FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Record.
January 15, 2025:

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/docu...tration-record

FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Celebrates Accomplishments for Servicemembers and Military Families.
January 16, 2025:

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/docu...icemembers-and

And, yes, that same non-partisan source covered the Trump's Pandemic Part 1 term as well. In fact, it covers his political life from the time he announced his candidacy. I encourage you and others to by all means look it up. Lololol.

Spoiler Alert: The first Trump so-called presidency is carefully documented by almost nothing by thousands and thousands of idiotic tweets about every nonsensical incoherent thought that crossed his mind with precious little if ANY actual accomplishments for four solid horrific and blithering, blathrring years.

Oh, what the hell. OK, I'll do all the work for you. Here is the link:

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/peop...trump-1st-term

**HotDog666** · 03-13-25 18:54

Originally Posted by Elvis2008 [View Original Post]

China did not lend the USA money. They bought bonds that were already issued on the open market. If China did not buy them, someone else would have. But having goods produced in China did lower prices and allowed the USA to keep inflation down which in turn allowed for lower interest rates.

The notion though that the USA has mountains of debt while China has none is ridiculous. China has more debt than the USA as it borrows to build things today that no one uses or needs to keep people employed. China just has a tendency to push this debt down to the city and state level.

China did not lend the USA money. They bought bonds that were already issued on the open market. If China did not buy them, someone else would have. But having goods produced in China did lower prices and allowed the USA to keep inflation down which in turn allowed for lower interest rates.

Yes, it's correct that China bought Treasuries but this is pretty much tantamount to lending money to USA. Ultimately, the yield on the treasuries is governed by supply demand and having a massive demand from China has been critical to keeping Treasury yields low for America. The corollary of this is that removal of Chinese demand would have inevitably pushed up yields. However yes, Chinese goods also aided lower inflation and lower interest rates.

The notion though that the USA has mountains of debt while China has none is ridiculous. China has more debt than the USA as it borrows to build things today that no one uses or needs to keep people employed. China just has a tendency to push this debt down to the city and state level.

There is one critical feature that people often forget when comparing debt / GDP ratios of countries like China and Japan vs USA: the fact that China and Japan have huge countervailing savings in the forms of household savings, which do not exist in America. This offsets to a great degree the admittedly huge debt overhangs. I agree China has been stupid in its massive over development of real state funded by debt but I don't see this turning into a Japanese type deflation, they will get the debt inflation out of the system (even if it takes time). American debt is scarely high, and with the economy now looking bleak, it's not a great time for America.

**EihTooms** · 03-13-25 18:48

Originally Posted by Elvis2008 [View Original Post]

It is funny how neither of you listed anything. When I read through Biden's accomplishments, they all involved printing money to pay for something or just being in place when the pandemic ended. In fact, cranking up the government printing press is what Trump did as well. I do not see any difference between Biden's and Trump's policies.

But the real point is if Biden was so damned great, why did you all get rid of him before the 2024 election? We all know the reason is because he would not win.

As far as that goes, Ronald Reagan was showing signs of dementia towards the end of his last term, and he was so popular I think he would have won in 1988 had he run..

I often cite 2-3 Biden legislative accomplishments, which is already 1-2 more than you could cite for Trump's Pandemic Part 1 term. And the RESULTS are easily researched in, say, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the months and months and months of jobs reports. And I have several times posted links for how typical American Working Men and Women's purchasing power in the past couple of years already surpassed that of 2019 by hundreds of dollars per year.

But if you really want a complete list from a perfectly non-partisan source, here ya' go.

Enjoy:

FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Celebrates Accomplishments for Servicemembers and Military Families.
January 16, 2025:

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/docu...icemembers-and

And, yes, that same non-partisan source covered the Trump's Pandemic Part 1 term as well. In fact, it covers his political life from the time he announced his candidacy. I encourage you and others to by all means look it up. Lololol.

Spoiler Alert: The first Trump so-called presidency is carefully documented by almost nothing by thousands and thousands of idiotic tweets about every nonsensical incoherent thought that crossed his mind with precious little if ANY actual accomplishments for four solid horrific and blithering, blathrring years.

Oh, what the hell. OK, I'll do all the work for you. Here is the link:

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/peop...trump-1st-term

**EihTooms** · 03-13-25 17:42

A couple of serious USA Stock Market watchers have spoken about Trump's blithering, blathering, cognitive incapacity Trade War and Tariffs Disaster's negative influence on the forward-looking USA Stock Market.

And, uh, it has nothing to do with Biden's multiple all-time record closing Stock Market highs or the Envy of the World Economy he handed Trump on a silver platter or his historic legislative achievements, all of which will be the only things that prevent Trump from producing another contractually-required Great Repub Depression / Great Repub Recession as soon as he is obviously trying very, very, very hard to produce one:

One of Wall Street's biggest bulls cuts his S&P 500 outlook, blaming tariffs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/13/one-...ndroidappshare

Widely followed strategist Ed Yardeni, one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street, lowered his market forecast, saying President Donald Trumps tariffs raise the risk of stagflation.

"It has dawned on Wall Street (and us!) that President Trumps tariffs arent negotiating chips to help the U.S. lower tariffs around the world, promoting free trade", Yardeni said in a note to clients Thursday. "They're trade barriers, triggering other countries to respond in kind, and they jeopardize U.S. inflation and economic growth."
..........
Yardeni said, "U.S. trade policy is disorganized. We can't ignore the potential stagflationary impact of the policies that Trump 2.0 is currently implementing haphazardly."

"In response to the now heightened risk of stagflation, we are lowering our S&P 500 valuation expectations and year-end price targets", Yardeni said. "If tariffs stick, the one-time price increase and uncertainty regarding its impact on inflation expectations are likely to be enough to keep the FOMC on pause", he said, referring to the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. U.S. Federal Reserve.

Goldman Sachs this week became the first major sell-side bank on Wall Street to slash its S&P 500 target, lowering its objective to 6,200 from 6,500.

**The Cane** · 03-13-25 17:22

Originally Posted by Elvis2008 [View Original Post]

It is funny how neither of you listed anything.

It's like I said. I'm not here to convince you of shit. It's funny that you think I am.

**Elvis 2008** · 03-13-25 16:52

Originally Posted by NewtonYork [View Original Post]

Trapped by all these falling knives, and an impending recession, clearly the bears have complete control of the market now. At this point, whatever hell I go through in the office, I can't even quit anymore. I'm trapped in a shitty work environment and my money is trapped in all these so called mag 7 stocks, until a miracle happens and the stock market recovers. I can't sell, I got no cash to dca down. This fucking sucks, and it sucking fucks.

There is a glimmer of hope though, following the reverse Cramer thesis, he just said it's time to abandon ship on the mag 7, which means it's time to load up. But then if I start buying, then it'll definitely crash. There's just no winning here *sigh* FML.

The market has been overpriced for years, and the reason it was going up is Biden was going into massive debt and flooding the system with cash. Then there was the promise of AI. After trudging through all of SC's post, he finally got to why he bought Nvidia and why. I was not convinced but I did a deep dive on the subject just to be sure.

Best piece I found was here, and it is a free download: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insight...little-benefit.

This is the bull case: Again, I readily acknowledge that the return on invested capital (ROIC) visibility is currently low, and the transformative potential of AI will remain hotly debated until that becomes clearer. But AI skeptics miss three key things.

One, training on existing / historical data to inform and drive analytic outcomes in the future sounds exactly like going to.

Universitypeople go to learn and then improve productivity and efficiency for decades after graduation, and machines can.

Absolutely do the same. Two, machines today can do a whole host of tasks more productively and efficiently than humans.

And that will remain true for decades into the future. And three, people didn't think they needed smartphones, airbnb, or uber.

Here is the best one line of the bear case: But eighteen months after the introduction of generative AI to the world, not one truly transformativelet.

Alone cost-effectiveapplication has been found.

So my response to point one of the bulls is learn what? For point two, we knew machines could do things better than humans before AI was even being talked about. And third, I knew the internet and smart phone were cool when I first used them and continued to do so. I have played with chatgpt and after doing so, put it away, but I did not put away my internet use or cell phone.

Back to the bear:

Since the substantial spend on AI infrastructure will continue despite my skepticism, investors should remain invested in the beneficiaries of this spend, in rank order: chip.

Manufacturers, utilities and other companies exposed to the coming buildout of the power grid to support AI technology.

And the hyperscalers, which are spending substantial money themselves but will also garner incremental revenue from the.

AI buildout. These companies have indeed already run up substantially, but history suggests that an expensive valuation.

Alone won't stop a company's stock price from rising further if the fundamentals that made the company expensive in the first.

Place remain intact.

So as long as Nvidia has buyers for their chips, keep investing in it.

I do not think people get that Nvidia was in gaming, and gaming more than anything pushed computers to be faster and better. A $100 PC today can do almost everything people need it to. It can even run old games just fine. In fact, only 5 of the top 20 games on metacritic were produced in the last 5 years. Newer, bigger, and more powerful did not mean better.

So what Nvidia is doing is building better and faster chips for the AI world, there are no fucking games / must have apps yet. You can download a deepseek program that has been tweaked to not have Chinese censorship and put the whole thing on your computer. Sure, open AI can create faster and more expensive models, but no one knows if they will be needed. Again, there are no fucking games / apps that are must haves. If deepseek is enough to run the future killer apps, if there even are any, then Nvidia is fucked.

The other bump in the road is these super fast AIs need huge amounts of power. The bull case for growth is limited by quantity of electricity. It is like EVs and lithium. There is not enough lithium for everyone to have an EV. The manic modeled growth for AI is dependent on doubling the amount of power in our grids. That is not an easily done.

And back to the bull:

So, I don't expect companies to scale back spending on AI infrastructure and strategies until we enter a tougher part of the economic cycle, which we don't expect anytime soon. That said, spending on these experiments will likely be the one of the first things to go if and when corporate profitability starts to decline.

What has changed since this correct statement is that Trump is president and he seems to be pulling money out of the system and deepseek has made the tech big boys question if their investment is necessary.

I have read how AI is going to take over war. The fighter pilot cannot take on things like changes in g force like AI can. Then you read this: The human brain is 10,000 x more effective per unit of power in performing cognitive tasks vs. Generative AI. This means you are like a century away from AI fighter pilots. In fact, AI along with humans will likely happen first.

And I abhor the use of the term investor. You invest a product. These guys are likening the growth of AI to smart phones when they do not even have a fucking product. So you are not investing in anything with AI, you are speculating and when you speculate, you have no idea what something should cost.

**Elvis 2008** · 03-13-25 15:26

Originally Posted by HotDog666 [View Original Post]

Most people don't understand the American / Chinese relationship up to now. It's not been one of China leaching of America, but a symbiotic economic one in which the Chinese lent the money to America to buy their cheap goods: America bought chinese goods, China recirculated the money into Treasury's. If that derails, American debt yields rise massively, so does inflation, so do your taxes. The tariffs are the icing on the cake. Musk is an idiot who is not making any material difference. If he were going to reform your healthcare system (the most expensive in the world yet still unjust and crap) I would be impressed.

China did not lend the USA money. They bought bonds that were already issued on the open market. If China did not buy them, someone else would have. But having goods produced in China did lower prices and allowed the USA to keep inflation down which in turn allowed for lower interest rates.

The notion though that the USA has mountains of debt while China has none is ridiculous. China has more debt than the USA as it borrows to build things today that no one uses or needs to keep people employed. China just has a tendency to push this debt down to the city and state level.

**Elvis 2008** · 03-13-25 14:13

Originally Posted by TheCane [View Original Post]

If you can't think of anything big and good that Biden did, then you aren't thinking very much at all and being totally unfair. In any event, Biden wasn't the candidate. It was the VP Harris. That said, I'm not here to try to prove the case.

Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]

Not only do Wingers like Tiny not notice anything Biden accomplished (historic positive results)

It is funny how neither of you listed anything. When I read through Biden's accomplishments, they all involved printing money to pay for something or just being in place when the pandemic ended. In fact, cranking up the government printing press is what Trump did as well. I do not see any difference between Biden's and Trump's policies.

But the real point is if Biden was so damned great, why did you all get rid of him before the 2024 election? We all know the reason is because he would not win.

As far as that goes, Ronald Reagan was showing signs of dementia towards the end of his last term, and he was so popular I think he would have won in 1988 had he run.

I think the biggest difference with Biden and Trump has to do with war and the loss of life. Trump and Putin both have said the Ukraine war would not have happened on his watch, and I think Trump would have reigned in Netanyahu more than Biden did. The Biden administration was awful in foreign affairs.

**Sirioja** · 03-13-25 10:54

If low level brained Trump was more clever, rather than sucking Putin to find new market, when he is losing versus Europe and China, he should know Russia economics is about to fall on 2025 , then no more money for war and his friend Putin would lose and return home. Rather than threatening blackmailing poor Ukrainians to rob them, maybe, if they kept their land and freedom, they could be happy to make business with USA for metals and minerals. But from his behavior, most of the world hate Trump and USA at the moment.

**Sirioja** · 03-13-25 08:37

With Trump and his ketamine asperger fool, many lost jobs and economics recession and inflation to come. Enjoy to be deeply fucked, no brained USA. Putin will keep on his war. Other countries will resist to USA gang of crazies. I support Mexico, Canada and Greenland / Denmark versus Neron shameful schizophrene threatening blackmailing Trump.

**SubCmdr** · 03-13-25 03:41

Originally Posted by SubCmdr [View Original Post]

Ok, let's just stick to the facts and see if you are speaking truth or just more of your lies and insults.

Nvida chips are the ones that have allowed for the RACIST Musk to advance further than anyone other vehicle manufacture on the autonomous driving feature using AI.

Despite developing its own chip, Tesla still relies on Nvidia GPUs for training its deep neural networks on a massive scale. Tesla uses an in-house supercomputer named Dojo, which is powered by Nvidia A100 Tensor Core GPUs to train its neural networks for Autopilot and self-driving capabilities. This supercomputer can achieve an industry-leading 1.8 exaflops of performance.

Tesla's Autopilot system is classified as Level 2 under the SAE six levels of vehicle automation, meaning it requires active driver supervision and is not fully autonomous.
Nvidia, on the other hand, works closely with Tesla to provide the necessary hardware and software for training and development of autonomous driving features.

Tesla's decision to use Nvidia GPUs for training its neural networks is crucial for continuous improvement and validation of its Autopilot features. The company collects data from over 1 million cars driving on the road to refine and build new features for its autonomous driving technology.

In summary, while Tesla has developed its own custom chip for autonomous driving, it continues to use Nvidia's GPUs for training its neural networks, highlighting the ongoing collaboration between the two companies.

Taking the rock straight to the hole and dunking right in his face.

Oooooooh that was nasty!

**EihTooms** · 03-13-25 03:09

Originally Posted by TheCane [View Original Post]

If you can't think of anything big and good that Biden did, then you aren't thinking very much at all and being totally unfair. In any event, Biden wasn't the candidate. It was the VP Harris. That said, I'm not here to try to prove the case. I'm not interested in trying to change anyone's mind. That's just a waste of time. So, believe what you want to. I just say you're wrong and move on. People say you can't easily change someone's mind by starting out with telling them they are wrong. Well again, I'm not interested in changing minds! But if I feel strongly about it, then I just might say the other side is wrong. How someone can think Trump the convicted felon (and that's just to start) is the lesser of evils and a suitable leader and representative of America on the world stage is beyond me! He's the worst President ever if you ask me due to a lack of respect for the Constitution and his attempt to overturn a free and fair election in what used to be the world's greatest democracy.

LOL. For me, Ultra MAGA Winger Tiny pulled this straw man argument out of his ass:

Tooms, I hope someday you'll realize that the national debt was a bipartisan affair. And presidents don't have as much to do with the economy as you think they do. On a % of GDP basis, I imagine the biggest jump in the national debt occurred during FDR's presidency. And if you're going to pin the debt from COVID on Trump, then you've got to pin the debt from WWII on FDR.

I had JUST posted a link showing that adjusted for inflation and going back to 1913 the Dems and Repubs increased government spending and the debt by almost equal amounts but that the Repubs added more to it by $0. 2 Trillion.

And ANOTHER link showing that Trump spent TWICE what Biden spent on Covid AND non Covid expenditures. With NO mention that it was evil Covid that forced poor put upon Trump to jack up his government spending to record highs. The fact that his non Covid expenditures were already TWICE what Biden's non Covid expenditures were is proof enough that in typical classic Repub fashion Trump was determined to spend TWICE as much as the nearest Dem and break all government spending records regardless whether he had found and embraced a golden opportunity like Covid to do it or not. That is just what they do.

The larger point was Trump's record breaking government spending and deregulation produced exactly zero net gain for the economy and jobs creation in light of the fact that his classic Repub general legislative nothingness and blithering stewardship produced the worst jobs creation and business crashing results of all time.

Oh, so he cut corporate tax rates and deregulated, did he? Impressive. Are we supposed to love that process and ignore the results? Every Repub seeks to lower tax rates for corporations and top margins and deregulate. Hooray. Let's just ignore the fact that whatever process they apply to accomplish it, Repubs' policies and stewardship has RESULTED in every Great Depression, Great Recession and Massive Jobs Destruction in the millions of the past 100 years and none of the Great Recoveries, Great Expansions and Historic Jobs Creation. Oh, but their tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation was beautiful. Lolol.

And, again, along the way they somehow spent MORE than Dems but still managed not to propose, fight for and pass one solitary Great Legislative Program when they controlled the WH, House and Senate in all that time equal to so much as the least of those produced by Dems. Hell, forget anything close to Social Security and Unemployment Benefits. Trump cut corporate tax rates, deregulated, plunged America into the worst economic downturn and jobs destruction since Hoover and still somehow managed not to pass one sentence of Infrastructure Legislation after 4 years of pretending to try while Biden passed a historic Infrastructure bill and a Science and Chips Act that even virulent America-hating Winger Repubs are rushing to protect from President Musk's Chainsaw.

Results count. Process is interesting but ultimately meaningless compared to Results.

Not only do Wingers like Tiny not notice anything Biden accomplished (historic positive results), but apparently the only thing they can recall that FDR accomplished after top marginal tax cutters and deregulator Repubs Coolidge / Hoover handed him one of the worst economic results in history was to spend government money. LOL.

**Sirioja** · 03-12-25 22:20

Neron Trump wants to suck Putin, but after killing Ukrainians and still doing, Putin may fuck Trump and USA. Putin is not trustable, when he didn t respect what he signed 10 years ago. Most sure way to stop Putin is to make Russia broke with no more money for weapons and meats sent to war, otherwise he won t stop to kill. Our world have to isolate Russia and block their money, not to make business sucking him.

**The Cane** · 03-12-25 12:52

Originally Posted by Tiny12 [View Original Post]

Gentlemen, Please remember the bastards are the politicians, not fellow board members. I'm reluctant to wander back in here right now for fear of plodding around in feces.

Xpartan, it's no great mystery why intelligent people like Axel and Elvis favor Trump. They believe he was the lesser of evils. I can't think of anything both big and really good that Biden did. Trump on the other hand cut the corporate tax rate and deregulated. And for a time got North Korea to stop long range and intermediate range ballistic missile tests, just by buddying up to Kim. Unfortunately he then proceeded to destroy his legacy by trying to steal an election. And his second round of trade wars won't help either.

By virtue of where I live and the industry I've worked in, the majority of my friends are like Elvis and Axel. Most of them are very intelligent, and like Trump more than Axel and Elvis. And I can say with respect to my friends, most are not racists. A couple are. One told me he would off me it it was desirable to improve the gene pool..

If you can't think of anything big and good that Biden did, then you aren't thinking very much at all and being totally unfair. In any event, Biden wasn't the candidate. It was the VP Harris. That said, I'm not here to try to prove the case. I'm not interested in trying to change anyone's mind. That's just a waste of time. So, believe what you want to. I just say you're wrong and move on. People say you can't easily change someone's mind by starting out with telling them they are wrong. Well again, I'm not interested in changing minds! But if I feel strongly about it, then I just might say the other side is wrong. How someone can think Trump the convicted felon (and that's just to start) is the lesser of evils and a suitable leader and representative of America on the world stage is beyond me! He's the worst President ever if you ask me due to a lack of respect for the Constitution and his attempt to overturn a free and fair election in what used to be the world's greatest democracy.