American Politics

[EihTooms]

That again? So this one epidemiologist had the answer for the pandemic? What is his name, and what was his solution? If he had the answer, why didn't Biden hire him and stop the pandemic?

And Bob Woodward? You mean the CIA hack who caused a coup in our country with Richard Nixon and according to Bill Murray made up a completely fictionalized account of the death of John Belushi?

And so you think Trump is this great intellect now? He was not exaggerating? He was not listening to epidemiologists telling him what he wanted to hear? Namely, the epidemiologists were telling Trump the virus spreading was all China's fault.

It amazes me how brain dead you are even now. The epidemiologists, the very people you think could have saved the world and the ones Trump fired, were the ones who created the virus and moved it to China in the first place. You have such TDS that you do not see how these same epidemiologists wanted to point the spotlight anywhere but on them.

And you are such a sucker with your TDS, you bought that lie hook, line, and sinker. For the hundredth time, what specific action could Trump, the Chinese, or the epidemiologists have undertaken that would have stopped the pandemic in its tracks? By this time, it is pretty obvious that you do not have an answer to that question. You are just blaming Trump because you want to.

Back when Trump allegedly said what he did, Covid was being treated with isolation. The epidemiologists swore that the reason the virus was still spreading was due to people not being compliant. The Chinese did what the epidemiologists swore would work..

"Had the answer for the pandemic"?

Yeah, don't let one get started by alerting authorities about the earliest cases so tried and proven mitigating isolation and quarantine measures can be taken to prevent it from becoming a Pandemic. Is that too complicated for you? Hell, it wasn't even too complicated for Trump and he's the dumbest person to ever waddle into the Oval Office.

Bob Woodward's audio recording of Trump admitting if only someone had reported the initial Covid cases "two months earlier" we could have stopped it "easily" should not be believed because Woodword reports bad news about your idols?

It is astonishing how incapable of understanding or unwilling to understand the simplest points you MAGA Cultists are.

I can't even believe I am reading this but there it is; you think the people Trump defunded and removed from their station in China to alert the world to early cases of potential Pandemic-level viruses so that measures can be taken to prevent Pandemics from developing could have been "hired" back by President Joe Biden in 2021 to "stop the pandemic" that had already been raging worldwide for a year and deaths from were snowballing into at least a million in America alone?

Seriously?

Lololol. Sorry to laugh. But good lord man you MAGAs are dumb.

Here's more.

The A. I. Overview:

The team Trump removed had a record of successfully identifying viruses
+3
You are referring to the PREDICT project, a global early-warning system funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Over its operational span, the initiative identified over 1,200 viruses with pandemic potential, including more than 160 novel coronaviruses, before its funding was allowed to lapse.

The PREDICT Project and Viral Discovery Launched in 2009, the PREDICT project focused on identifying pathogens that could spill over from animal hosts to humans. Over a decade of field research, epidemiologists and wildlife veterinarians operating across more than 30 countries sampled animals and people to map out potential viral threats. The initiative discovered hundreds of novel viruses, which notably included Ebolavirus, Marburg, and SARS-related coronaviruses.The program operated on the principle of proactive surveillancefinding and monitoring threats in "hot interfaces" where humans and wildlife interactto stop potential outbreaks before they spread globally.

Program Conclusion. In September 2019, the funding for the initiative's fieldwork was allowed to run out under the Trump administration, leading to the layoff of scientists and analysts. While the administration later granted emergency extensions to help labs cope with the initial COVID-19 outbreak, the project's foundational predictive and proactive surveillance mission was discontinued.For a deeper look into how emerging viral threats are monitored and anticipated before they turn into global health crises:58sThe Next Pandemic Might Already Be DetectableYouTube**How to Survive ShowPredict (USAID) - WikipediaHistory. Predict was launched in 2009 in response following the influenza A virus subtype H5N1 "bird flu" outbreak in 2005. It was designed and overseen by Denn...WikipediaTrump administration ended pandemic early-warning program to detect ...Apr 2, 2563 BE The project, launched by the U.S. Agency for International Development in 2009, identified 1,200 different viruses that had the potential to erupt into pandemic...YahooPREDICT | School of Veterinary MedicinePREDICT's work has contributed to: * Strengthening global surveillance and laboratory diagnostic capabilities * Supporting preparedness and the Global Health Se...UC Davis One Health InstitutePREDICT Project | Wildlife Health Center / School of Veterinary MedicineThe PREDICT project's goal is to enable global surveillance for pathogens that could spillover from animal hosts to people. The project is building capacities t...UC DavisWhat happened to PREDICT? - PauboxDec 7, 2563 BE "PREDICT has made significant contributions to strengthening global surveillance and laboratory diagnostic capabilities for new and known viruses," reads a USAI...Paubox EmailProgram ended by Trump administration last year helped labs detect viruses that ...Apr 2, 2563 BE In September, the Trump administration ended a $200 million pandemic early-warning program called PREDICT that trained scientists in laboratories around the wor...The Week AI can make mistakes, so double-check responses

Trump administration ended pandemic early-warning program to detect coronaviruses.
April 3, 2020

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-adm...233508840.html

Two months before the novel coronavirus is thought to have begun its deadly advance in Wuhan, China, the Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat.

The project, launched by the U.S. Agency for International Development in 2009, identified 1,200 different viruses that had the potential to erupt into pandemics, including more than 160 novel coronaviruses. The initiative, called PREDICT, also trained and supported staff in 60 foreign laboratories including the Wuhan lab that identified SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Field work ceased when the funding ran out in September, and organizations that worked on the PREDICT program laid off dozens of scientists and analysts, said Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, a key player in the program.

Hey, I know! Maybe Trump can now "hire back" those scientists and analysts to "stop" him from launching a quagmire, counterproductive Repub War of Choice in Iran Based on a Lie.

Good idea, huh? Not too late, right?

Lolol.

[Tiny 12]

LOL. Well, you really have no rights as a shareholder in the USA really until you acquire a big stake. This reminds of the Mark Cuban classic post here, https://blogmaverick.com/2008/09/08/...ks-and-money/: In July of 1998, my partner Todd Wagner and I took our company, Broadcast.com, public with Morgan Stanley. Broadcast.com used audio and video streaming to enable companies to communicate live with customers, employees, vendors, anyone with a PC.

Part of the process of taking a new company public is something called a road show. The road show is just that. A company getting ready to sell shares visits the big mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds anyone who can buy millions of dollars of stock in a single order. It's a sales tour. 7 days, 63 presentations.

Prior to the road show, we put together an amazing presentation. We hired consultants to help us. We practiced and practiced. We argued about what we should and shouldn't say. We had Morgan Stanley and others ask us every possible question they could think of so we wouldn't look stupid when we sat in front of these savvy investors.

Savvy investors? I was shocked. Of the 63 companies and 400-plus participants we visited, I would be exaggerating if I said we got 10 good questions about our business and how it worked. The vast majority of people in the meetings had no clue who we were or what we did. They just knew that there were a lot of people talking about the company and they should be there.

The lack of knowledge at the meetings got to be such a joke between Todd and I that we used to purposely mess up to see if anyone noticed. Or we would have pet lines that we would make up to crack each other up. Did we ruin our chance for the IPO? Was our product so complicated that no one got it and as a result no one bought the stock? Hell no. They might not have had a clue, but that didn't stop them from buying the stock. We batted 1. 000. Every single investor we talked to placed the maximum order allowable for the stock.

On July 18,1998, Broadcast.com went public as BCST, priced at 18 dollars a share. It closed at $62.75, a gain of almost 250 percent, which at the time was the largest one day rise of a new offering in the history of the stock market. The same mutual fund managers who were completely clueless about our company placed multimillion orders for our stock. Multimillion dollar orders using your money.

Price-earnings ratios, price-sales, the present value of future cash flows, pick one. Fundamentals are merely metrics created to help stockbrokers sell stocks, and to give buyers reassurance when buying stocks. Even how profits are calculated is manipulated to give confidence to buyers.

I know that sounds crazy, but the stock market has gone from a place where investors actually own part of a company and have a say in their management, to a market designed to enrich insiders by allowing them to sell shares they buy cheaply through options. Companies continuously issue new shares to their managers without asking their existing shareholders. Those managers then leak that stock to the market a little at a time. It's unlimited dilution of existing shareholders' stakes, death by a thousand dilutive cuts. If that isn't a scam, I don't know what is. Individual shareholders have nothing but the chance to sell it to the next sucker. A mutual fund buys one million shares of a company with your and your coworkers' money. You own 1 percent of the company. Six weeks later you own less, and all that money went to insiders, not to the company. And no one asked your permission, and you didn't know you got diluted or by how much till 90 days after the fact if that soon.

End of link.

Oh, and as big of a scam as the overall American stock market is, the Chinese one is worse.

This is from a search on Chinese stock rights: Foreign investors generally have no direct ownership rights or legal recourse when buying Chinese stocks listed on USA Exchanges. Instead of owning shares in the actual Chinese operating company, investors purchase stock in an offshore Variable Interest Entity (VIE), typically a shell company registered in the Cayman Islands. This structure relies on contracts rather than equity ownership, meaning shareholders hold zero controlling interest and possess only a contractual claim to economic benefits that Chinese courts may deem unenforceable or illegal.

What cracks me up about this is that this is Geely is like Nvidia. You cannot make a case for the stock as really by law the stock is worthless, but if you gamble based on name recognition, then my bet would be Geely is the first Chinese car maker to come to market. They own Volvo and have the USA infrastructure. Trump has said he would let Chinese cars in as long as they were manufactured in the USA and the lower labor costs are not really what make Chinese cars cheaper.

If you want to look at fundamentals, you can see why the auto industry in China IS a scam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tS_fJJxMjn4&t=632s.

Just like long term there is no way Nvidia can grow or deliver the numbers they are now, the car companies and China are going down. It will take awhile but they are doing much the same things as Japan did and going into massive debt.

However, in the short and medium term, yeah, the Chinese cars will blow the roof of foreign competitors like they have done in Chile and are doing in Mexico. As for why, it is the engineering talent is much cheaper and that so many of the supply chains are based in China. In this video, the youtuber describes why what takes 3 months for Europe to model takes 3 days in China because one part of China produces 90% of all consumer electronics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=talyf00Cl24

When Ford looked at changing things in the cars, it took way longer and was way more expensive. The legacy auto companies really cannot compete with the Chinese.

Yeah, the Cherys are nice vehicles, but if you look at the top rated ones in Mexico, Geely cars are usually rated higher and because of the infrastructure with owning Volvo, I bet that Geely will be the first to market. I think that the Chinese companies have decided to dabble in Mexico first and then step up to the big leagues in the USA. Apparently, a lot of the Volvo engineers have been giving styling input on the Geelys and like I said, they do look really cool especially on the inside.

So yeah, Geely is a gamble but it is probably a good one.

Hi Elvis, Several comments. Typically the hottest IPO's are allocated mostly to institutions, and the majority flip the shares early on. That's largely why the fund managers don't give a shit about the fundamentals of the business. They're going to take their allotment of Broadcast.com and sell it maybe on the first day. The institutions who get the IPO shares are typically the best customers of the investment banks (Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, et cetera) so that's why they get first shot. The investment banks purposely try to underprice the shares to reward their best clients (hedge funds and mutual funds and the like). The company that's going public and the retail investors who pay more the first day for the same shares are the ones who get screwed.

I would not buy shares in a variable interest entity. As I understand it, the legal status of VIE's is uncertain or worse in the PRC. The Chinese government could at any point make the shares of VIE investors worthless.

Insiders of companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are the least likely to engage in fraud. The reason is they can go to jail or worse.

The next safest would be H shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong. Most of these are actually Cayman Islands or British Virgin Islands registered companies that own Chinese subsidiaries. These are a little dicey because the insiders occasionally bankrupt the Hong Kong parent and keep control of the Chinese subsidiaries. Geely and Chery are H shares.

The most dangerous are Chinese companies listed on foreign exchanges, like the USA, Australia, etc. A lot of those, I'the say the majority, turn out badly for investors.

The Geely entity traded in the USA is not a VIE. Rather it's an ADR or American Depository Receipt. To cater to investors who are unable to buy on the Hong Kong exchange, a USA bank will buy shares of the Geely, and then issue depository receipts to USA Investors. The bank holds the shares, and passes dividends, taking its cut, onto the holders of the ADR's. Anytime you want you can convert the ADR's to the H shares by paying a fee. I would buy the H shares instead, as trading liquidity is much better.

About the first video, I haven't looked at BYD but did take a quick look at Geely and Chery. While the speaker obviously has a lot of experience in China, I don't think he understand what's going on with payables. The companies at the top of the food chain, like the car manufacturers, are very slow paying suppliers, and treat the payables as free loans. I bet if you look at the accounts receivable turns of the auto parts companies, they conversely would look off the charts. I didn't see Geely or Chery as having problematic balance sheets. Chery in fact has 108 billion renminbi cash, higher than its 91 billion accounts payable. I'm not buying his claim of auto companies generating tons of fictitious revenues by delivering cars to dealers that they can't sell. If that were happening you should see off the charts accounts receivable and low operating cash flow, which isn't the case with Geely or Chery.

Geely is selling for 8. 2 X 2026 earnings, has an ROE of 19%, and dividend yield of 2. 7%. The dividend yield may seem skimpy, but given its growing revenues and profits at 20%+ per year, that's reasonable. They're using most of their income (actually free cash flow) to invest in growth instead of paying it out as dividends.

Chery's selling for 6. 4 X 2026 earnings, has an ROE of 49% and dividend yield of 3. 7%. Likewise it's growing.

Compare to Tesla at 231 X earnings, 5% ROE, no dividend, and flat or negative growth since 2023. Admittedly the market is giving them more credit for pie in the sky like self driving cars and robots than EV's. Still, which of these three shares look more like pieces of paper (if you had share certificates) than interests in a business?

Please note the parent company of Geely owns Volvo, not Geely. Still as you pointed out there are benefits from the Volvo connection. They guy who runs Geely looks about average for China in terms of how he treats minority shareholders. Meaning you're more likely to get screwed than with a USA Company with a large float.

I don't know if Chery or Geely are buys, but they're a lot more interesting than Tesla. If as you suspect Geely becomes the Toyota of Japan it's probably cheap.

The big risk is dog eat dog competition in Chinese cars, which has already surfaced and which may destroy margins and returns. Please note this runs counter to your view about other industries, that the Chinese may cut prices to dirt cheap, put the competition out of business, and then raise prices sky high. I don't think this will ever happen in autos. But in say rare earth materials and magnets, yeah, that's very logical.

In the accounting realm, it's probably not payables and inventory stuffing that are the most worrisome. Capitalizing R&D to jack up earnings may be though. I don't know, again I haven't looked at this closely.

Thanks again for your thoughts on Geely. When I get some time I'm going to take a closer look.

As to the second video by the same presenter, he's spot on. He illustrates my point, why do you want to jack up tariffs sky high on items like socks and toys, so the Chinese move production to Vietnam or wherever? And it illustrates your point that the haphazard way Trump implemented tariffs was stupid.

In China you have the "ecosystem", the suppliers and manufacturers located close to each other, and they're extremely efficient and competitive. As he put it, "you can move a factory in a year, but it takes 40 years for an ecosystem. " His advice to American companies buying Chinese products: "Ask your supplier where a product is made. Go there and you'll find 50 people on the same street making the same thing. " So anyway, for products we'll never make in the USA and which aren't strategic, like socks, why run up the cost on American consumers by forcing the Chinese to reproduce these ecosystems in other countries. Contrary to what Trump pays, it's not the Chinese who ultimately carry most of the burden to build the new factories in Vietnam. It's the Walmart shopper.

[Tiny 12]

Hi SubCmdr, how you doing? I think a lot of shit can happen between now and the end of the year which means almost anything could happen. Meanwhile, I just got back from a fun 5 week trip to SP and right now I am relaxing pool side, having a good time in the free state of Florida, eating my tree ripened mangos, and watching the madness unfurl elsewhere while my stock portfolio keeps going higher.

So, I am up for a little gentleman' s wager if you are:

1) I do not believe overall food prices will rise even close to 30% by the end of the year, so I am willing to bet a 1st round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that overall food prices will not increase 30% by the end of 2026.

2) I think the odds are more like 50/50 that the Fed will raise rates only one time before the end of the year, maybe not even that, so I will bet you a 2nd round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Fed does not raise rates more than one time during the rest of the year.

3) I will also bet you a third round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Republicans keep their majority in the House and Senate.

Care to wager? No losers with these bets because by the time we get to the 3rd round we will all be having a good time.

A. H.

Hi Axel, Since Subcmdr passed on #3, I'll take that action if you're so inclined. The Republicans may indeed hold the Senate, but they're going to get clobbered in the House. I feel strongly about that, and wouldn't feel right taking advantage of you. So, I'the propose this bet. As such time as I make it to Sao Paulo and you happen to be there, if you win (Republicans win both House and Senate) I'll buy you time with the hottest garota de programa at Scandallo, not to exceed 2000 reais. If you win, you just buy the round of drinks. Or we can do something mutually agreeable at another location.

[SubCmdr]

AxelHeyst you have a supporter that says your proposed bets are a sure thing!

but that is to be expected with a guy who is "investing" in momentum trades. If you cannot tell me why something you bought went up, that is your winning a gamble not your being smart.

What is a momentum trade? Because I have never made one. Anyone who thinks they can say way exactly something happens in any market is simply delusional.

Here are some traditional ideas as to why markets go up:

Its based on economic theory. The market is comprised of stocks in companies that are trying to generate a revenue. In a (relatively) free market, they should in aggregate generate wealth because they have an incentive to do so. If companies have profits, they will (eventually) distribute them. Investors, know this, but also they know that 1) there are risks involved, and 2) that all else equal, money you have today is better than money you have in the future. For that reason they buy future cash flows at a discount. For all of these reasons you would expect that (probably) the market will go up. Theres always the possibility that it doesnt and thats precisely why you can expect stocks to return more than other less risky investments over the long term.

Why any particular item in said market went up is anyone's guess. If individuals knew why, then they would never make a bad trade.

Markets go up over the long term primarily because corporate earnings and economic output grow. The stock market represents ownership in businesses that generate profit, and as these companies expand, innovate, and increase revenue, their intrinsic value rises, driving share prices higher.

Several key factors sustain this upward trajectory:

Economic Growth and Productivity: A growing population, technological advancements, and increased efficiency allow companies to produce more value, leading to higher aggregate profits.
Inflation: As the general price level of goods and services rises, the nominal value of corporate assets and earnings increases, pushing stock prices up in dollar terms.
Supply and Demand: Continuous buying pressure from investors seeking returns, often amplified by institutional flows and new market participants, exceeds selling pressure in expanding economies.
Market Self-Cleansing: Weak companies fail and are replaced by stronger, more profitable firms, ensuring the overall market index reflects the performance of the most successful businesses.
While short-term fluctuations are driven by market sentiment, interest rates, and geopolitical events, the long-term trend remains upward because capital requires a return on investment, incentivizing the allocation of resources to productive enterprises that generate wealth over time.

But what do you expect from an individual who said I was a Socialist and that you should buy Bonds over NVDA, APPLE and GOLD.

Bond prices fall when interest rates go up. This occurs because existing bonds with fixed, lower coupon rates become less attractive compared to new bonds issued at higher yields. To compete in the secondary market, the price of older bonds must dropoften trading at a discount below their face valueso that their effective yield rises to match current market rates.

The magnitude of this price decline depends on the bond's duration and time to maturity. Long-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes than short-term bonds, meaning their prices will drop more sharply when rates rise. Investors who hold bonds to maturity generally avoid realizing these paper losses, but those who sell before maturity may incur principal losses.

Fidelity Reports:

The 2026 bond market reset
Several major economic crosscurrents converged on the bond market in the first half of the year.

Energy-market disruptions in the Middle East ignited an inflationary impulse. An exceptionally strong corporate earnings backdrop, along with a stabilizing job market, helped ease worries of an economic slowdown, and even stoked talk of a potential reacceleration. And the sum of those forcesadding up to a stronger, more inflationary environmentled investors to reassess whether the Fed would have any leeway to lower interest rates further this year, or might even have to raise interest rates instead.

Individually, each of those forces has generally put upward pressure on interest rates. Taken together, theyve driven a resetting of expectations of where interest rates might land, says Christine Thorpe, institutional portfolio manager on Fidelitys fixed income team.

After seeing significant volatility in much of the first half of the year, interest rates at almost all maturities have been settling into higher trading ranges. In mid-May, the rate on 10-year Treasurys broke out above 4.5%, while the rate on 30-year Treasurys crossed above 5%. And investors now see the odds tilting toward a Fed rate hike before the end of 2026a stark change from the start of the year, when investors expected 2 rate cuts.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-ce...market-outlook

[Axel Heyst]

Did you really have to quote SC? Now, I have to sign out and read the BS he wrote. >snip>

As for inflation and oil prices working their way into overall prices in the future, I have to just shake my head at that. Oil prices are down now. More importantly, the oil futures markets completely yawned at the Gulf War to the point that some were saying that the USA government was rigging the prices. Airliines lock in prices via futures markets all the time. So if you locked in $50 oil and the price spikes to $100, you make a killing. IOW, the idea is we see inflation because higher oil prices means higher plane fares, but that is not the case if the airlines locked in at a certain price of oil, and how many other big oil consumers locked in a cheap oil price? We don't know. And how do you know that the spike of oil prices a few weeks / months ago are not negated due to lower prices today? You cannot quantify that either. So here we go again. Another prediction that is based on nothing..

1st, I feel your pain. Every time one of you guys quotes BKK Bob or one of the other resident lefties, I am exposed to couple lines of BS before I have the time to react and toggle down past the quote. KKK. But I enjoy reading your posts, Elvis, which I find informative and entertaining. Wish I could say the same about Bob's posts.

2nd, on the important subject of hyper-inflation and food prices as measured by the CPI-UU Food component, I consider the possibility that it will be running up to 30% year over year by the end of December 2026 to be extremely, extremely unlikely, but I didn't want to hit SubCmdr over the head with my "opinion". That's why I offered him a friendly Gentleman's wager and if I am wrong and I lose the wager, I will admit it over a few very strong drinks, KKK, and party on. But even more importantly, I will want to know how and why the US Economy went hyper and why I missed seeing the danger as late as July 2026.

3rd, yeah with Trump's guy at the head of the FED I see only one possible rate increase between now and the end of the year based on current data. But if the Fed does decide to raise interest rates, it most likely will not happen until after the election unless there is hard new evidence of significant new inflation growth. The most interesting fact of the last week was seeing oil prices decline and the stock market rally after the "truce" ended and the bombing of Iran resumed indicating the IRGC may be running out of cards to play and its ability to influence oil prices is waning. And this is very good news even for Trump haters even though they will never admit it.

[Elvis 2008]

Hi SubCmdr, how you doing? I think a lot of shit can happen between now and the end of the year which means almost anything could happen. Meanwhile, I just got back from a fun 5 week trip to SP and right now I am relaxing pool side, having a good time in the free state of Florida, eating my tree ripened mangos, and watching the madness unfurl elsewhere while my stock portfolio keeps going higher.

So, I am up for a little gentleman' s wager if you are:

1) I do not believe overall food prices will rise even close to 30% by the end of the year, so I am willing to bet a 1st round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that overall food prices will not increase 30% by the end of 2026.

2) I think the odds are more like 50/50 that the Fed will raise rates only one time before the end of the year, maybe not even that, so I will bet you a 2nd round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Fed does not raise rates more than one time during the rest of the year.

Did you really have to quote SC? Now, I have to sign out and read the BS he wrote. It is like 10% information and 90% his bragging about his race and dick size. And after reading it, 10% was generous. First off, he does not even get point #1. The reason there will be food shortages (and presumably food inflation) was due to decreased fertilizer being supplied from the Middle East.

The three main components of fertilizer are phosphorous, potassium or potash, and nitrogen / urea. It is the last one that the Middle East specializes in and the reason so much nitrogen fertilizer is produced in the Middle East is the abundant natural gas reserves. Of course, the USA is swimming in natural gas and is the last place therefore that the Gulf War would affect with regards to a lack of fertilizer / food but as anyone should know by now SC does not specialize in fundamentals.

Of course, you could have floods, droughts, ETC that affect food prices that cannot be accounted for, and that is why the gamble is a gamble, but the idea that the Gulf War causes USA food prices to go up is crazy.

For the record, Peter Zeihan, who is basically selling the CIA version of events to the world, said that the Ukraine war would lead to famine as well. Given that Russia and Belarus control so much of the world's potash reserve, that prediction actually had more potential to be true, but even that was wrong. But once again, the USA is isolated from a supply crunch there as well because we get so much of our potash from Canada.

So while no one can say with certainty what food prices will do, SC's reason for higher food prices in the USA is dead wrong, but that is to be expected with a guy who is "investing" in momentum trades. If you cannot tell me why something you bought went up, that is your winning a gamble not your being smart.

As for inflation and oil prices working their way into overall prices in the future, I have to just shake my head at that. Oil prices are down now. More importantly, the oil futures markets completely yawned at the Gulf War to the point that some were saying that the USA government was rigging the prices. Airliines lock in prices via futures markets all the time. So if you locked in $50 oil and the price spikes to $100, you make a killing. IOW, the idea is we see inflation because higher oil prices means higher plane fares, but that is not the case if the airlines locked in at a certain price of oil, and how many other big oil consumers locked in a cheap oil price? We don't know. And how do you know that the spike of oil prices a few weeks / months ago are not negated due to lower prices today? You cannot quantify that either. So here we go again. Another prediction that is based on nothing.

As for the Fed, you both assume that inflation is going to trump politics when they make their decisions and IMO nothing could be further from the truth. Trump's guy is now leading the Fed and unless inflation absolutely skyrockets led by a huge surge in energy prices, there is no way in hell he raises rates. Maybe there is some unforeseen reason, like massive droughts or flooding, that inflation goes way up, but as of now, I do not see anything out there.

[Elvis 2008]

A US epidemiologist was embedded with the Chinese CDC. The Trump administration discontinued the position.

That again? So this one epidemiologist had the answer for the pandemic? What is his name, and what was his solution? If he had the answer, why didn't Biden hire him and stop the pandemic?

And Bob Woodward? You mean the CIA hack who caused a coup in our country with Richard Nixon and according to Bill Murray made up a completely fictionalized account of the death of John Belushi?

And so you think Trump is this great intellect now? He was not exaggerating? He was not listening to epidemiologists telling him what he wanted to hear? Namely, the epidemiologists were telling Trump the virus spreading was all China's fault.

It amazes me how brain dead you are even now. The epidemiologists, the very people you think could have saved the world and the ones Trump fired, were the ones who created the virus and moved it to China in the first place. You have such TDS that you do not see how these same epidemiologists wanted to point the spotlight anywhere but on them.

And you are such a sucker with your TDS, you bought that lie hook, line, and sinker. For the hundredth time, what specific action could Trump, the Chinese, or the epidemiologists have undertaken that would have stopped the pandemic in its tracks? By this time, it is pretty obvious that you do not have an answer to that question. You are just blaming Trump because you want to.

Back when Trump allegedly said what he did, Covid was being treated with isolation. The epidemiologists swore that the reason the virus was still spreading was due to people not being compliant. The Chinese did what the epidemiologists swore would work. They literally locked people in their homes with Covid, and the virus still spread! But you are still so full of it you are saying, "Oh, those epidemiologists knew what to do," You know the Cochrane review showed masks do not work? You know that Fauci has admitted that he literally made up the 6 foot rule right? But you still believe these fucking liars had the answer!

And what is so irresponsible about your delusional TDS rant is the very people responsible for the pandemic, the government epidemiologists, got away with it because delusional people like you can only blame Trump about any government shortcomings. Everyone else in government are angels.

If Fauci did not cause the pandemic, then why was Fauci given a pardon? Let me guess. That is Trump's fault too.

[SubCmdr]

Hi SubCmdr, how you doing?

I am outstanding!

I think a lot of shit can happen between now and the end of the year which means almost anything could happen. Meanwhile, I just got back from a fun 5 week trip to SP and right now I am relaxing pool side, having a good time in the free state of Florida, eating my tree ripened mangos, and watching the madness unfurl elsewhere while my stock portfolio keeps going higher.

So, I am up for a little gentleman' s wager if you are:

1) I do not believe overall food prices will rise even close to 30% by the end of the year, so I am willing to bet a 1st round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that overall food prices will not increase 30% by the end of 2026.

What is the index that will be used to judge the price of food increase in the Dis United States of America from July 2026 to December 2026?

2) I think the odds are more like 50/50 that the Fed will raise rates only one time before the end of the year, maybe not even that, so I will bet you a 2nd round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Fed does not raise rates more than one time during the rest of the year.

This one is easy as the Fed moves will be on record.

3) I will also bet you a third round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Republicans keep their majority in the House and Senate.

I don't give a fuck about politics. I don't believe politics or politicians are an effective way to change the system.

Care to wager? No losers with these bets because by the time we get to the 3rd round we will all be having a good time..

Number three is no bet: Reason why is covered above.

Here are my terms: Loser buys round the round for each bet we agree upon. Winner determines location where the bet is paid. Should be pretty easy to know where I am going to pick. Also, note I will not travel in order to make payment if I lose.

Currently there are only two bets in play (#1 after determining the index that will be used to determine food prices) and #2. If I lose I'm not buying drinks for three bitches you pick. I don't need anyone to buy drinks for bitches I pick. Bringing bitches into play adds a degree of complexity I am not interested in engaging in. As there are so few people in this world I like to party with at this time in my life. Perhaps if I knew you better. But for now we keep it simple. The way true gentlemen do. Just like in the movie Trading Places. Of course the ravages of inflation will cause our bet to a materially higher amount. ROTFLMAO!

Your move Mr. AxelHeyst!

[MarquisdeSade1]

Despite the fact that Repub so-called president Donald Trump can't keep the presidents of Russia Russia Russia and Ukraine straight in his head or which Islamic Republic country he is currently losing his War of Choice based on a Repub lie against, it turns out Dem President Joe Biden's almost single-handed international rally of support for Ukraine after Russia Russia Russia's Putin stupidly invaded a sovereign nation in his effort to destroy democratic governance around the world and replace it with Communism, something Donald Trump has always thought and openly characterized as "very smart", appears to be paying off as a historic show of support for freedom and democracy by a USA president perhaps leading to a resounding win for the good guys and defeat of the bad guys..

The scumbag had the temerity to blame having lived in Siam for his crimes.

https://youtube.com/shorts/CXLHIt5Nk...DY1oV4xSB73FzT

Or maybe even Big John in 2028.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...sing-committee

[Axel Heyst]

They will! The Fed will raise interest rates three times before the year ends. Inflation is running at 4. 1% annually. The oil shock will take six months to flow through the economy. Food prices will be up 30% in the Dis United States of America, before the end of the year.

I'm on the record. On January 1, 2027, call me out if I'm wrong. I'll stand and take my grade.

Hi SubCmdr, how you doing? I think a lot of shit can happen between now and the end of the year which means almost anything could happen. Meanwhile, I just got back from a fun 5 week trip to SP and right now I am relaxing pool side, having a good time in the free state of Florida, eating my tree ripened mangos, and watching the madness unfurl elsewhere while my stock portfolio keeps going higher.

So, I am up for a little gentleman' s wager if you are:

1) I do not believe overall food prices will rise even close to 30% by the end of the year, so I am willing to bet a 1st round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that overall food prices will not increase 30% by the end of 2026.

2) I think the odds are more like 50/50 that the Fed will raise rates only one time before the end of the year, maybe not even that, so I will bet you a 2nd round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Fed does not raise rates more than one time during the rest of the year.

3) I will also bet you a third round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Republicans keep their majority in the House and Senate.

Care to wager? No losers with these bets because by the time we get to the 3rd round we will all be having a good time.

A. H.

[SubCmdr]

Trump's actions would lead to massive inflation because of higher oil prices and food shortages due to a lack of fertilizer.

They will! The Fed will raise interest rates three times before the year ends. Inflation is running at 4. 1% annually. The oil shock will take six months to flow through the economy. Food prices will be up 30% in the Dis United States of America, before the end of the year.

I'm on the record. On January 1, 2027, call me out if I'm wrong. I'll stand and take my grade.

[KeviKev68]

Are you upset because Trump hasn't ended Biden war in Ukraine? This isn't Trump war but it will end before his term. Probably sooner than later. You just can't admit Trump has been so successful in stopping so many wars and you can't accept the fact that Trump saved France and Europe from Iran nuclear threat. An intelligent person would recognize that the world is safer without terrorism.

I don't know one European leader who can stand Trump aside from that commie Putin. He probably doesn't like Trump anyway because the Russians are aligned with the Iranians. How do you explain that? Anyone who believes that a ground war can be done in Iran in less than 2 years has to be using drugs. It's impossible and air strikes alone can't accomplish this.

Meanwhile, we hear that the fearless Trump had switch planes as the hand-me down plane accepted by Trump is unsafe for him to use. The American taxpayer got duped into spending 1 billion dollars to retrofit a "free" plane that is useless outside of the United States.

We ought to make Trump pay for plane out of his own pockets. That cheap bastard!

[Sirioja]

Are you upset because Trump hasn't ended Biden war in Ukraine? This isn't Trump war but it will end before his term. Probably sooner than later. You just can't admit Trump has been so successful in stopping so many wars and you can't accept the fact that Trump saved France and Europe from Iran nuclear threat. An intelligent person would recognize that the world is safer without terrorism.

You are in same delirium than senile Trump the loser. He promised to stop Ukraine war in 1 day, what is real fact after 1 year and half, when he only stopped to help Ukraine and DT BJ so much Putin who has photos of him with prostitutes in Moscow. Before Trump, no problem in Ormuz pass and mollahs never attacked Europe nor USA, as reported CIA, do You know CIA? Who instructed Bin Laden in past. When I support Spain, after Greenland, Germany and even Gaza who are not Esbollah, let us know 8 Trump peaces, to entertain us. Venezuela petrol robbery? Trump is lucky to have such fanatics, when 60% US Americans disagree with him, also real figure reported. Our world would be much better and safer and for pollution which kill more than mollahs and Putin, without your crazy dangerous Trump.

[EihTooms]

Despite the fact that Repub so-called president Donald Trump can't keep the presidents of Russia Russia Russia and Ukraine straight in his head or which Islamic Republic country he is currently losing his War of Choice based on a Repub lie against, it turns out Dem President Joe Biden's almost single-handed international rally of support for Ukraine after Russia Russia Russia's Putin stupidly invaded a sovereign nation in his effort to destroy democratic governance around the world and replace it with Communism, something Donald Trump has always thought and openly characterized as "very smart", appears to be paying off as a historic show of support for freedom and democracy by a USA president perhaps leading to a resounding win for the good guys and defeat of the bad guys.

Only time will tell, of course. But it is heartening to witness the democratic spirit as perfectly exemplified by the previous Dem USA Presidents and the Ukraine President on the ascension against the current Russia Russia Russia Communism-loving Repub USA so-called president and his best bud Putin's wishes for less and less democracy and more and more Communism at home and abroad.

The A. I. Overview:

Which side is winning the war between Russia and Ukraine?
+4
Ukraine has gained the upper hand, with its automated armed forces and mid-range drone strikes slowing Russia's advances to a crawl and recapturing territory. While Russia continues to press along the eastern front, its ground offensive is largely stalled due to unsustainable casualties and logistical disruptions, causing the Kremlin's momentum to fade.

Key factors in the shift include:Frontline Progress: The Russian advance has been reduced to marginal, highly costly daily gains, with Ukrainian counteroffensives successfully reclaiming ground.

Drone Offensives: Ukraine has effectively targeted Russian logistics, supply networks, and the Russian industrial baseincluding oil refineriesfrom long-range distances.

Strategic Setbacks: Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly facing pressure as the invasion approaches an estimated 500,000 Russian casualties, coupled with severe economic impacts.

For more details on the shifting momentum, you can read in-depth coverage from the Atlantic Council or the strategic analysis provided by Foreign Policy.1mEurope says Russia can't win Ukraine war militarilyYouTubeCNNUkraine just showed the whole world that Putin is losing control of the warRussia's apparent inability to defend itself against Ukraine's escalating drone offensive is only one of multiple challenges Putin currently faces. His invading...Atlantic CouncilUkraine Is Winning Its War On Russian Oil Refineries. On The Front ...On Ukraine's Battlefield, Russia Has Lost Ground, Experts Say. But Don't Expect A Major Reversal For Kyiv. In Kostyantynivka, Russian troops advanced on average...Radio Free Europe/Radio LibertyIs Ukraine Winning the War? - by Aaron MacLean - The Free PressIs Ukraine Winning the War? - by Aaron MacLean. Is Ukraine Winning the War? Ukraine's strikes against Russia's industrial base have been spectacularly successfu...The Free PressPutin May Escalate, but Ukraine Is Winning - Foreign PolicyOn July 1, Russia unleashed a massive airstrike on Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin no doubt intended it as a show of dominance to offset renewed claims t...Foreign PolicyYes, Russia Is Losing the War in Ukraine - by Cathy YoungExpatriate Russian political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov, an honorary professor at University College London, noted in a YouTube interview that since late 2024...The BulwarkUkraine Latest: Russia Presses forward on the Front as the War Expands beyond the BattlefieldUkraine Latest: Russia Presses forward on the Front as the War Expands beyond the Battlefield Russia stepped up pressure across several sectors of the front lin...Georgia Today

On a directly related topic:

Trump terminates Election Assistance Commission members.
July 10, 2026

https://www.reuters.com/legal/govern...rs-2026-07-10/

The Election Assistance Commission serves as a "national clearinghouse of information on election administration," accredits *testing ⁠laboratories and certifies voting systems, and maintains the national mail voter registration form developed by the National Voter Registration Act of 1993, according to the commission's website.

The terminations follow Trump and top administration officials' ​advocacy to change vote-by-mail ​requirements and investigations ⁠into the 2020 election outcome, which Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden.
"It is irresponsible and dangerous that this ​Administration remains dead set on causing chaos for our ​election officials ⁠across this country," Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said in a Thursday statement. "This move undermines the integrity of nonpartisan election administration."

Yep, he is still on his, say it with me folks, "defund and remove" rampage that always turns out very badly for America and the rest of the World; Repub Trump's Pandemic re the Pandemic Prevention and Response teams leadership, Repub Trump's Forever War of Choice in the Middle East Based on a Repub Lie re the Obama / Kerry Anti-Nuke Iran Deal, Trump's Search For His Next Pandemic, Maybe Ebola This Time re effective communication programs among the Pandemic monitoring agencies, etc.

And now we can add this to the list.

Repub Trump continues to wage his War Against America and Democracy by violence, as in J6, or by unprecedented executive action due to his and his Repub Party's hatred for voting in free and fair elections by ordinary American citizens.

[Canada]

Please, keep Trump for you and far from my France, when he was so proud at Versailles, when he dreams to have a Arc de Triomphe. I really wonder where you live, in a petrol hole in deep Texas for cow boys, when you are so disconnected from reality, ignoring 60% Americans, not 50%, and most US artists, disagree with your Trump who failed in Ukraine, who made a problem and still for Ormuz pass, when was no problem before he started his war, but still mollahs, nothing changed in Iran, but now worse situation for world economics after, when not finished yet, than before he attacked Iran which never attacked USA, same than Ukraine never attacked Russia, what I call losing when worse situation for the world and even Americans paying inflation, than before attacking..

Are you upset because Trump hasn't ended Biden war in Ukraine? This isn't Trump war but it will end before his term. Probably sooner than later. You just can't admit Trump has been so successful in stopping so many wars and you can't accept the fact that Trump saved France and Europe from Iran nuclear threat. An intelligent person would recognize that the world is safer without terrorism.