American Politics

[SubCmdr]

AxelHeyst you have a supporter that says your proposed bets are a sure thing!

but that is to be expected with a guy who is "investing" in momentum trades. If you cannot tell me why something you bought went up, that is your winning a gamble not your being smart.

What is a momentum trade? Because I have never made one. Anyone who thinks they can say way exactly something happens in any market is simply delusional.

Here are some traditional ideas as to why markets go up:

Its based on economic theory. The market is comprised of stocks in companies that are trying to generate a revenue. In a (relatively) free market, they should in aggregate generate wealth because they have an incentive to do so. If companies have profits, they will (eventually) distribute them. Investors, know this, but also they know that 1) there are risks involved, and 2) that all else equal, money you have today is better than money you have in the future. For that reason they buy future cash flows at a discount. For all of these reasons you would expect that (probably) the market will go up. Theres always the possibility that it doesnt and thats precisely why you can expect stocks to return more than other less risky investments over the long term.

Why any particular item in said market went up is anyone's guess. If individuals knew why, then they would never make a bad trade.

Markets go up over the long term primarily because corporate earnings and economic output grow. The stock market represents ownership in businesses that generate profit, and as these companies expand, innovate, and increase revenue, their intrinsic value rises, driving share prices higher.

Several key factors sustain this upward trajectory:

Economic Growth and Productivity: A growing population, technological advancements, and increased efficiency allow companies to produce more value, leading to higher aggregate profits.
Inflation: As the general price level of goods and services rises, the nominal value of corporate assets and earnings increases, pushing stock prices up in dollar terms.
Supply and Demand: Continuous buying pressure from investors seeking returns, often amplified by institutional flows and new market participants, exceeds selling pressure in expanding economies.
Market Self-Cleansing: Weak companies fail and are replaced by stronger, more profitable firms, ensuring the overall market index reflects the performance of the most successful businesses.
While short-term fluctuations are driven by market sentiment, interest rates, and geopolitical events, the long-term trend remains upward because capital requires a return on investment, incentivizing the allocation of resources to productive enterprises that generate wealth over time.

But what do you expect from an individual who said I was a Socialist and that you should buy Bonds over NVDA, APPLE and GOLD.

Bond prices fall when interest rates go up. This occurs because existing bonds with fixed, lower coupon rates become less attractive compared to new bonds issued at higher yields. To compete in the secondary market, the price of older bonds must dropoften trading at a discount below their face valueso that their effective yield rises to match current market rates.

The magnitude of this price decline depends on the bond's duration and time to maturity. Long-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes than short-term bonds, meaning their prices will drop more sharply when rates rise. Investors who hold bonds to maturity generally avoid realizing these paper losses, but those who sell before maturity may incur principal losses.

Fidelity Reports:

The 2026 bond market reset
Several major economic crosscurrents converged on the bond market in the first half of the year.

Energy-market disruptions in the Middle East ignited an inflationary impulse. An exceptionally strong corporate earnings backdrop, along with a stabilizing job market, helped ease worries of an economic slowdown, and even stoked talk of a potential reacceleration. And the sum of those forcesadding up to a stronger, more inflationary environmentled investors to reassess whether the Fed would have any leeway to lower interest rates further this year, or might even have to raise interest rates instead.

Individually, each of those forces has generally put upward pressure on interest rates. Taken together, theyve driven a resetting of expectations of where interest rates might land, says Christine Thorpe, institutional portfolio manager on Fidelitys fixed income team.

After seeing significant volatility in much of the first half of the year, interest rates at almost all maturities have been settling into higher trading ranges. In mid-May, the rate on 10-year Treasurys broke out above 4.5%, while the rate on 30-year Treasurys crossed above 5%. And investors now see the odds tilting toward a Fed rate hike before the end of 2026a stark change from the start of the year, when investors expected 2 rate cuts.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-ce...market-outlook

[Axel Heyst]

Did you really have to quote SC? Now, I have to sign out and read the BS he wrote. >snip>

As for inflation and oil prices working their way into overall prices in the future, I have to just shake my head at that. Oil prices are down now. More importantly, the oil futures markets completely yawned at the Gulf War to the point that some were saying that the USA government was rigging the prices. Airliines lock in prices via futures markets all the time. So if you locked in $50 oil and the price spikes to $100, you make a killing. IOW, the idea is we see inflation because higher oil prices means higher plane fares, but that is not the case if the airlines locked in at a certain price of oil, and how many other big oil consumers locked in a cheap oil price? We don't know. And how do you know that the spike of oil prices a few weeks / months ago are not negated due to lower prices today? You cannot quantify that either. So here we go again. Another prediction that is based on nothing..

1st, I feel your pain. Every time one of you guys quotes BKK Bob or one of the other resident lefties, I am exposed to couple lines of BS before I have the time to react and toggle down past the quote. KKK. But I enjoy reading your posts, Elvis, which I find informative and entertaining. Wish I could say the same about Bob's posts.

2nd, on the important subject of hyper-inflation and food prices as measured by the CPI-UU Food component, I consider the possibility that it will be running up to 30% year over year by the end of December 2026 to be extremely, extremely unlikely, but I didn't want to hit SubCmdr over the head with my "opinion". That's why I offered him a friendly Gentleman's wager and if I am wrong and I lose the wager, I will admit it over a few very strong drinks, KKK, and party on. But even more importantly, I will want to know how and why the US Economy went hyper and why I missed seeing the danger as late as July 2026.

3rd, yeah with Trump's guy at the head of the FED I see only one possible rate increase between now and the end of the year based on current data. But if the Fed does decide to raise interest rates, it most likely will not happen until after the election unless there is hard new evidence of significant new inflation growth. The most interesting fact of the last week was seeing oil prices decline and the stock market rally after the "truce" ended and the bombing of Iran resumed indicating the IRGC may be running out of cards to play and its ability to influence oil prices is waning. And this is very good news even for Trump haters even though they will never admit it.

[Elvis 2008]

Hi SubCmdr, how you doing? I think a lot of shit can happen between now and the end of the year which means almost anything could happen. Meanwhile, I just got back from a fun 5 week trip to SP and right now I am relaxing pool side, having a good time in the free state of Florida, eating my tree ripened mangos, and watching the madness unfurl elsewhere while my stock portfolio keeps going higher.

So, I am up for a little gentleman' s wager if you are:

1) I do not believe overall food prices will rise even close to 30% by the end of the year, so I am willing to bet a 1st round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that overall food prices will not increase 30% by the end of 2026.

2) I think the odds are more like 50/50 that the Fed will raise rates only one time before the end of the year, maybe not even that, so I will bet you a 2nd round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Fed does not raise rates more than one time during the rest of the year.

Did you really have to quote SC? Now, I have to sign out and read the BS he wrote. It is like 10% information and 90% his bragging about his race and dick size. And after reading it, 10% was generous. First off, he does not even get point #1. The reason there will be food shortages (and presumably food inflation) was due to decreased fertilizer being supplied from the Middle East.

The three main components of fertilizer are phosphorous, potassium or potash, and nitrogen / urea. It is the last one that the Middle East specializes in and the reason so much nitrogen fertilizer is produced in the Middle East is the abundant natural gas reserves. Of course, the USA is swimming in natural gas and is the last place therefore that the Gulf War would affect with regards to a lack of fertilizer / food but as anyone should know by now SC does not specialize in fundamentals.

Of course, you could have floods, droughts, ETC that affect food prices that cannot be accounted for, and that is why the gamble is a gamble, but the idea that the Gulf War causes USA food prices to go up is crazy.

For the record, Peter Zeihan, who is basically selling the CIA version of events to the world, said that the Ukraine war would lead to famine as well. Given that Russia and Belarus control so much of the world's potash reserve, that prediction actually had more potential to be true, but even that was wrong. But once again, the USA is isolated from a supply crunch there as well because we get so much of our potash from Canada.

So while no one can say with certainty what food prices will do, SC's reason for higher food prices in the USA is dead wrong, but that is to be expected with a guy who is "investing" in momentum trades. If you cannot tell me why something you bought went up, that is your winning a gamble not your being smart.

As for inflation and oil prices working their way into overall prices in the future, I have to just shake my head at that. Oil prices are down now. More importantly, the oil futures markets completely yawned at the Gulf War to the point that some were saying that the USA government was rigging the prices. Airliines lock in prices via futures markets all the time. So if you locked in $50 oil and the price spikes to $100, you make a killing. IOW, the idea is we see inflation because higher oil prices means higher plane fares, but that is not the case if the airlines locked in at a certain price of oil, and how many other big oil consumers locked in a cheap oil price? We don't know. And how do you know that the spike of oil prices a few weeks / months ago are not negated due to lower prices today? You cannot quantify that either. So here we go again. Another prediction that is based on nothing.

As for the Fed, you both assume that inflation is going to trump politics when they make their decisions and IMO nothing could be further from the truth. Trump's guy is now leading the Fed and unless inflation absolutely skyrockets led by a huge surge in energy prices, there is no way in hell he raises rates. Maybe there is some unforeseen reason, like massive droughts or flooding, that inflation goes way up, but as of now, I do not see anything out there.

[Elvis 2008]

A US epidemiologist was embedded with the Chinese CDC. The Trump administration discontinued the position.

That again? So this one epidemiologist had the answer for the pandemic? What is his name, and what was his solution? If he had the answer, why didn't Biden hire him and stop the pandemic?

And Bob Woodward? You mean the CIA hack who caused a coup in our country with Richard Nixon and according to Bill Murray made up a completely fictionalized account of the death of John Belushi?

And so you think Trump is this great intellect now? He was not exaggerating? He was not listening to epidemiologists telling him what he wanted to hear? Namely, the epidemiologists were telling Trump the virus spreading was all China's fault.

It amazes me how brain dead you are even now. The epidemiologists, the very people you think could have saved the world and the ones Trump fired, were the ones who created the virus and moved it to China in the first place. You have such TDS that you do not see how these same epidemiologists wanted to point the spotlight anywhere but on them.

And you are such a sucker with your TDS, you bought that lie hook, line, and sinker. For the hundredth time, what specific action could Trump, the Chinese, or the epidemiologists have undertaken that would have stopped the pandemic in its tracks? By this time, it is pretty obvious that you do not have an answer to that question. You are just blaming Trump because you want to.

Back when Trump allegedly said what he did, Covid was being treated with isolation. The epidemiologists swore that the reason the virus was still spreading was due to people not being compliant. The Chinese did what the epidemiologists swore would work. They literally locked people in their homes with Covid, and the virus still spread! But you are still so full of it you are saying, "Oh, those epidemiologists knew what to do," You know the Cochrane review showed masks do not work? You know that Fauci has admitted that he literally made up the 6 foot rule right? But you still believe these fucking liars had the answer!

And what is so irresponsible about your delusional TDS rant is the very people responsible for the pandemic, the government epidemiologists, got away with it because delusional people like you can only blame Trump about any government shortcomings. Everyone else in government are angels.

If Fauci did not cause the pandemic, then why was Fauci given a pardon? Let me guess. That is Trump's fault too.

[SubCmdr]

Hi SubCmdr, how you doing?

I am outstanding!

I think a lot of shit can happen between now and the end of the year which means almost anything could happen. Meanwhile, I just got back from a fun 5 week trip to SP and right now I am relaxing pool side, having a good time in the free state of Florida, eating my tree ripened mangos, and watching the madness unfurl elsewhere while my stock portfolio keeps going higher.

So, I am up for a little gentleman' s wager if you are:

1) I do not believe overall food prices will rise even close to 30% by the end of the year, so I am willing to bet a 1st round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that overall food prices will not increase 30% by the end of 2026.

What is the index that will be used to judge the price of food increase in the Dis United States of America from July 2026 to December 2026?

2) I think the odds are more like 50/50 that the Fed will raise rates only one time before the end of the year, maybe not even that, so I will bet you a 2nd round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Fed does not raise rates more than one time during the rest of the year.

This one is easy as the Fed moves will be on record.

3) I will also bet you a third round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Republicans keep their majority in the House and Senate.

I don't give a fuck about politics. I don't believe politics or politicians are an effective way to change the system.

Care to wager? No losers with these bets because by the time we get to the 3rd round we will all be having a good time..

Number three is no bet: Reason why is covered above.

Here are my terms: Loser buys round the round for each bet we agree upon. Winner determines location where the bet is paid. Should be pretty easy to know where I am going to pick. Also, note I will not travel in order to make payment if I lose.

Currently there are only two bets in play (#1 after determining the index that will be used to determine food prices) and #2. If I lose I'm not buying drinks for three bitches you pick. I don't need anyone to buy drinks for bitches I pick. Bringing bitches into play adds a degree of complexity I am not interested in engaging in. As there are so few people in this world I like to party with at this time in my life. Perhaps if I knew you better. But for now we keep it simple. The way true gentlemen do. Just like in the movie Trading Places. Of course the ravages of inflation will cause our bet to a materially higher amount. ROTFLMAO!

Your move Mr. AxelHeyst!

[MarquisdeSade1]

Despite the fact that Repub so-called president Donald Trump can't keep the presidents of Russia Russia Russia and Ukraine straight in his head or which Islamic Republic country he is currently losing his War of Choice based on a Repub lie against, it turns out Dem President Joe Biden's almost single-handed international rally of support for Ukraine after Russia Russia Russia's Putin stupidly invaded a sovereign nation in his effort to destroy democratic governance around the world and replace it with Communism, something Donald Trump has always thought and openly characterized as "very smart", appears to be paying off as a historic show of support for freedom and democracy by a USA president perhaps leading to a resounding win for the good guys and defeat of the bad guys..

The scumbag had the temerity to blame having lived in Siam for his crimes.

https://youtube.com/shorts/CXLHIt5Nk...DY1oV4xSB73FzT

Or maybe even Big John in 2028.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...sing-committee

[Axel Heyst]

They will! The Fed will raise interest rates three times before the year ends. Inflation is running at 4. 1% annually. The oil shock will take six months to flow through the economy. Food prices will be up 30% in the Dis United States of America, before the end of the year.

I'm on the record. On January 1, 2027, call me out if I'm wrong. I'll stand and take my grade.

Hi SubCmdr, how you doing? I think a lot of shit can happen between now and the end of the year which means almost anything could happen. Meanwhile, I just got back from a fun 5 week trip to SP and right now I am relaxing pool side, having a good time in the free state of Florida, eating my tree ripened mangos, and watching the madness unfurl elsewhere while my stock portfolio keeps going higher.

So, I am up for a little gentleman' s wager if you are:

1) I do not believe overall food prices will rise even close to 30% by the end of the year, so I am willing to bet a 1st round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that overall food prices will not increase 30% by the end of 2026.

2) I think the odds are more like 50/50 that the Fed will raise rates only one time before the end of the year, maybe not even that, so I will bet you a 2nd round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Fed does not raise rates more than one time during the rest of the year.

3) I will also bet you a third round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Republicans keep their majority in the House and Senate.

Care to wager? No losers with these bets because by the time we get to the 3rd round we will all be having a good time.

A. H.

[SubCmdr]

Trump's actions would lead to massive inflation because of higher oil prices and food shortages due to a lack of fertilizer.

They will! The Fed will raise interest rates three times before the year ends. Inflation is running at 4. 1% annually. The oil shock will take six months to flow through the economy. Food prices will be up 30% in the Dis United States of America, before the end of the year.

I'm on the record. On January 1, 2027, call me out if I'm wrong. I'll stand and take my grade.

[KeviKev68]

Are you upset because Trump hasn't ended Biden war in Ukraine? This isn't Trump war but it will end before his term. Probably sooner than later. You just can't admit Trump has been so successful in stopping so many wars and you can't accept the fact that Trump saved France and Europe from Iran nuclear threat. An intelligent person would recognize that the world is safer without terrorism.

I don't know one European leader who can stand Trump aside from that commie Putin. He probably doesn't like Trump anyway because the Russians are aligned with the Iranians. How do you explain that? Anyone who believes that a ground war can be done in Iran in less than 2 years has to be using drugs. It's impossible and air strikes alone can't accomplish this.

Meanwhile, we hear that the fearless Trump had switch planes as the hand-me down plane accepted by Trump is unsafe for him to use. The American taxpayer got duped into spending 1 billion dollars to retrofit a "free" plane that is useless outside of the United States.

We ought to make Trump pay for plane out of his own pockets. That cheap bastard!

[Sirioja]

Are you upset because Trump hasn't ended Biden war in Ukraine? This isn't Trump war but it will end before his term. Probably sooner than later. You just can't admit Trump has been so successful in stopping so many wars and you can't accept the fact that Trump saved France and Europe from Iran nuclear threat. An intelligent person would recognize that the world is safer without terrorism.

You are in same delirium than senile Trump the loser. He promised to stop Ukraine war in 1 day, what is real fact after 1 year and half, when he only stopped to help Ukraine and DT BJ so much Putin who has photos of him with prostitutes in Moscow. Before Trump, no problem in Ormuz pass and mollahs never attacked Europe nor USA, as reported CIA, do You know CIA? Who instructed Bin Laden in past. When I support Spain, after Greenland, Germany and even Gaza who are not Esbollah, let us know 8 Trump peaces, to entertain us. Venezuela petrol robbery? Trump is lucky to have such fanatics, when 60% US Americans disagree with him, also real figure reported. Our world would be much better and safer and for pollution which kill more than mollahs and Putin, without your crazy dangerous Trump.

[EihTooms]

Despite the fact that Repub so-called president Donald Trump can't keep the presidents of Russia Russia Russia and Ukraine straight in his head or which Islamic Republic country he is currently losing his War of Choice based on a Repub lie against, it turns out Dem President Joe Biden's almost single-handed international rally of support for Ukraine after Russia Russia Russia's Putin stupidly invaded a sovereign nation in his effort to destroy democratic governance around the world and replace it with Communism, something Donald Trump has always thought and openly characterized as "very smart", appears to be paying off as a historic show of support for freedom and democracy by a USA president perhaps leading to a resounding win for the good guys and defeat of the bad guys.

Only time will tell, of course. But it is heartening to witness the democratic spirit as perfectly exemplified by the previous Dem USA Presidents and the Ukraine President on the ascension against the current Russia Russia Russia Communism-loving Repub USA so-called president and his best bud Putin's wishes for less and less democracy and more and more Communism at home and abroad.

The A. I. Overview:

Which side is winning the war between Russia and Ukraine?
+4
Ukraine has gained the upper hand, with its automated armed forces and mid-range drone strikes slowing Russia's advances to a crawl and recapturing territory. While Russia continues to press along the eastern front, its ground offensive is largely stalled due to unsustainable casualties and logistical disruptions, causing the Kremlin's momentum to fade.

Key factors in the shift include:Frontline Progress: The Russian advance has been reduced to marginal, highly costly daily gains, with Ukrainian counteroffensives successfully reclaiming ground.

Drone Offensives: Ukraine has effectively targeted Russian logistics, supply networks, and the Russian industrial baseincluding oil refineriesfrom long-range distances.

Strategic Setbacks: Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly facing pressure as the invasion approaches an estimated 500,000 Russian casualties, coupled with severe economic impacts.

For more details on the shifting momentum, you can read in-depth coverage from the Atlantic Council or the strategic analysis provided by Foreign Policy.1mEurope says Russia can't win Ukraine war militarilyYouTubeCNNUkraine just showed the whole world that Putin is losing control of the warRussia's apparent inability to defend itself against Ukraine's escalating drone offensive is only one of multiple challenges Putin currently faces. His invading...Atlantic CouncilUkraine Is Winning Its War On Russian Oil Refineries. On The Front ...On Ukraine's Battlefield, Russia Has Lost Ground, Experts Say. But Don't Expect A Major Reversal For Kyiv. In Kostyantynivka, Russian troops advanced on average...Radio Free Europe/Radio LibertyIs Ukraine Winning the War? - by Aaron MacLean - The Free PressIs Ukraine Winning the War? - by Aaron MacLean. Is Ukraine Winning the War? Ukraine's strikes against Russia's industrial base have been spectacularly successfu...The Free PressPutin May Escalate, but Ukraine Is Winning - Foreign PolicyOn July 1, Russia unleashed a massive airstrike on Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin no doubt intended it as a show of dominance to offset renewed claims t...Foreign PolicyYes, Russia Is Losing the War in Ukraine - by Cathy YoungExpatriate Russian political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov, an honorary professor at University College London, noted in a YouTube interview that since late 2024...The BulwarkUkraine Latest: Russia Presses forward on the Front as the War Expands beyond the BattlefieldUkraine Latest: Russia Presses forward on the Front as the War Expands beyond the Battlefield Russia stepped up pressure across several sectors of the front lin...Georgia Today

On a directly related topic:

Trump terminates Election Assistance Commission members.
July 10, 2026

https://www.reuters.com/legal/govern...rs-2026-07-10/

The Election Assistance Commission serves as a "national clearinghouse of information on election administration," accredits *testing ⁠laboratories and certifies voting systems, and maintains the national mail voter registration form developed by the National Voter Registration Act of 1993, according to the commission's website.

The terminations follow Trump and top administration officials' ​advocacy to change vote-by-mail ​requirements and investigations ⁠into the 2020 election outcome, which Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden.
"It is irresponsible and dangerous that this ​Administration remains dead set on causing chaos for our ​election officials ⁠across this country," Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said in a Thursday statement. "This move undermines the integrity of nonpartisan election administration."

Yep, he is still on his, say it with me folks, "defund and remove" rampage that always turns out very badly for America and the rest of the World; Repub Trump's Pandemic re the Pandemic Prevention and Response teams leadership, Repub Trump's Forever War of Choice in the Middle East Based on a Repub Lie re the Obama / Kerry Anti-Nuke Iran Deal, Trump's Search For His Next Pandemic, Maybe Ebola This Time re effective communication programs among the Pandemic monitoring agencies, etc.

And now we can add this to the list.

Repub Trump continues to wage his War Against America and Democracy by violence, as in J6, or by unprecedented executive action due to his and his Repub Party's hatred for voting in free and fair elections by ordinary American citizens.

[Canada]

Please, keep Trump for you and far from my France, when he was so proud at Versailles, when he dreams to have a Arc de Triomphe. I really wonder where you live, in a petrol hole in deep Texas for cow boys, when you are so disconnected from reality, ignoring 60% Americans, not 50%, and most US artists, disagree with your Trump who failed in Ukraine, who made a problem and still for Ormuz pass, when was no problem before he started his war, but still mollahs, nothing changed in Iran, but now worse situation for world economics after, when not finished yet, than before he attacked Iran which never attacked USA, same than Ukraine never attacked Russia, what I call losing when worse situation for the world and even Americans paying inflation, than before attacking..

Are you upset because Trump hasn't ended Biden war in Ukraine? This isn't Trump war but it will end before his term. Probably sooner than later. You just can't admit Trump has been so successful in stopping so many wars and you can't accept the fact that Trump saved France and Europe from Iran nuclear threat. An intelligent person would recognize that the world is safer without terrorism.

[Canada]

Thing about those with TDS is that they only allow 100% negative comments about Trump and 100% positive comments about Dems. Any Dem who makes a valid criticism of the Democratic party like saying Kamala Harris was a shit candidate is attacked and proclaimed a bothsider. The Democrats are the party of women and I have been watching the men of action podcast and seen when the two males discuss the data from a scientific study and the women in unison say "Yeah, we do not believe that" and the women try to knock it down right there. This is the modern Democratic party and it's see no evil hear no evil attitude.

OTOH, Republicans are allowed to disagree. Certainly, you put yourself out there if you go to hard against Trump but there have been notable exceptions. The latest Trump cringing moment was Trump involving himself in the World Cup and an American striker getting a red card. Yes, he was right to do it as the red card was ridiculously unfair and the punishment was unduly harsh, but Trump had to brag about it giving Belgium a ridiculously high psych to play hard. Anyone in sports knows the way to beat your opponent is to praise them. I will never forget a boxing match with Larry Holmes and what lit a fire into him. It was not the fame or fortune that turned him into a freak in the ring but it was his opponent hitting him in the groin..

Great post. No the democrats losers will never change. They must lead a miserable life being against Trump and against America on so many issues. The good news is these dumb democrats don't know what a woman is so at least the transgenders are getting laid by these democrats. Leaves more women for us. Men in dresses are women so they can play women's sports. You can't fix stupid!

[EihTooms]

Why do Trump and his fellow Repub MAGAs hate American kids, American seniors, disabled Americans and their American families so much?

Immigration changes could worsen care worker shortages and raise family costs

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/03/immi...ndroidappshare

Immigrants make up 30% of direct care workers in long-term care settings, according to the nonpartisan health policy research group KFF.

Tighter immigration policies could deepen staffing shortages, impacting care for seniors and people with disabilities, expert says.

Fewer care workers could increase costs and financial pressure on American families, said Louis Barajas, a CNBC Financial Advisor Council member.

Repub Trump's typical crap Repub jobs creation, weak wage growth and zeal to save America from low cost nail salon technicians, farm workers, busboys and care workers is a toxic brew for suffering among American families.

But I hear that is exactly what everybody who could have but did not vote for Kamala Harris voted for.

Oh well.

We tried.

Nothing much we in Thailand can do to help you guys in Trumpistan with this one. Sorry.

[Elvis 2008]

Thing about those with TDS is that they only allow 100% negative comments about Trump and 100% positive comments about Dems. Any Dem who makes a valid criticism of the Democratic party like saying Kamala Harris was a shit candidate is attacked and proclaimed a bothsider. The Democrats are the party of women and I have been watching the men of action podcast and seen when the two males discuss the data from a scientific study and the women in unison say "Yeah, we do not believe that" and the women try to knock it down right there. This is the modern Democratic party and it's see no evil hear no evil attitude.

OTOH, Republicans are allowed to disagree. Certainly, you put yourself out there if you go to hard against Trump but there have been notable exceptions. The latest Trump cringing moment was Trump involving himself in the World Cup and an American striker getting a red card. Yes, he was right to do it as the red card was ridiculously unfair and the punishment was unduly harsh, but Trump had to brag about it giving Belgium a ridiculously high psych to play hard. Anyone in sports knows the way to beat your opponent is to praise them. I will never forget a boxing match with Larry Holmes and what lit a fire into him. It was not the fame or fortune that turned him into a freak in the ring but it was his opponent hitting him in the groin.

The most recent Trump polltical cringe moment was the Iran war. To be sure, there was a large segment of the Repubilcan party that was outspoken against him. The market turned against Trump and eventually he was forced to capitutlate and made a deal to end the war that was met with disbelief. The Dems who had been saying that we had lost the war even before a shot was fired had their moment in the sun. Iran was allowed to sell its crude. Frozen assets were unfrozen, and Iran will be allowed to collect tolls on the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian attitude towards the world was almost Trumpian, Iran has been very clear that the current "free" passage in the Strait of Hormuz is only available for 60 days and has stated "if you are my friend, you pay less. If you are not my friend, you pay more. If I don't like you, maybe I won't even let you take your oil through. " Yes, the entire world was going to have to kiss Iran's ass.

But Trump told Iran that he would not just be handing Iran cash but that it had strings attached. He told Iran we will be watching what you buy. And then China, their largest customer, told Iran to pound sand once Iran said they were back open for business and open to selling China its oil. An incensed Iran then attacked American bases and Trump did not respond with capitulation. He said the Iranian leaders were scum and he was done with them and responded with an attack in kind.

Sure, the headlines showed oil prices were up once the attacks begun, but by today already, the oil prices are down. More importantly, there is something called the crack spread or front spread which is the difference between a refined product like jet fuel or gasoline in comparison to the oil it comes from. From Doomberg on June 24, there was this, "If there is a shortage of oil per se, the front spread is the pebble in the water from which all other oil pricing is derived. If we had a shortage of oil today, the front spread would be trading $10.00 not $0.55 cents and this is just wow it's worth $0. 55 cents when capacity utilization in PADD 3 is 95% to 98%. When demand for crude is high and the front spread is flat. Inventory surveys are irrelevant. Supply is greater than demand." And if one looks at oil futures, the oil market is literally yawning at Iran and its threats.

As for why, one reason is the world has turned to American liquified natural gas or LPG as an alternative. Keep in mind that this is the very fuel that the brain dead idiot Biden banned our producers from selling to appease the climate change nuts. As you recall and Speaker Johnson attested to, his home state of Louisiana was hurting when Biden banned the export of LNG, and Biden was so brain dead, he said that he did not ban the sale of LPG.

In contrast to Trump, US LPG exports climbed to a record high of 3. 3 million barrels / day in April, led by propane, as the continued effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has boosted demand for US barrels, S&P Global Commodities at Sea data showed on May 5.

In addition, China has turned on a dime. From Doomberg, Against this backdrop sits another economic black box: China, the world's largest importer of crude oil. For decades, Chinese leaders have addressed this vulnerability by investing huge sums to insure against worst-case scenarios. In so doing, China has wildly overinvested in coal-to-liquids technology, petrochemical processing, crude oil refining, electric vehicle production, and liquefied natural gas import terminals. These state-of-the-art facilities are often built in record time and regularly operate at rates well below their nameplate capacities, much to the frustration of global competitors.

A sharp fall in China's crude oil imports during the Iran war has been instrumental in holding down oil prices and keeping the global economy humming.

Chinese official customs data put crude imports at 7.8 million barrels a day in May, which includes oil arriving by pipeline from Russia, a drop from around 11 million barrels a day in recent years. The missing three million barrels are roughly equal to the combined daily oil consumption of Italy and France.

Just as remarkable as the abrupt import fall is the absence of major visible disruptions to everyday life in China. Tourists are still traveling, factories are still running and store shelves have plenty of toilet paper.

Remarkably, this was accomplished without meaningful draws on the country's vast stockpile of crude reserves, at least according to consensus market views and official government data. It wasn't until May that those reserves were tapped, and even then only to the tune of 0.5-1 million barrels per day.

That China has the ability to swing 3 to 4 million barrels per day of crude demand for months at a time without a flinch seems a profoundly important development. Without knowing the specifics of how this was accomplished, one can conclude that sufficient engine switching and demand-shifting capacity exists within the country to cap oil prices in all but the most extreme scenarios. This has clearly been done, within factories and consumer products alike, on a scale few have yet fully internalized.

As we have often pondered both here and on numerous podcast appearances, if $150 oil prices could not be achieved with the Iran war fact set, how could they ever be achieved—at least in real US dollar terms?

Said another way, if crude oil has shifted from a necessary hydrocarbon to an optional one at the margins, and those margins are as wide as Chinese demand, what does the future entail for energy prices?

End of link.

So yeah, when Iran said the world was going to have to kiss its ass, China and other countries have said, "Yeah, I don't think so."

As for the supposed reason for going to war, destruction of Iranian nuclear capability, there was good news on that front from Seymour Hersh, President Donald Trump, in a striking change of tone, has told the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, that he is prepared to escalate the current US attacks on Iran. "We're going to hit them hard tonight, but we'll see how it all works out" Trump said. The targets, a report in the New York Times said, would include the nation's infrastructure and desalination plans, all potential war crimes.

There is a previously unknown explanation for the change in tone. The US and Israeli intelligence communities have recently learned that Iran's supposedly existential threat to Israel and the West—its underground supply of partially enriched uranium—has degraded while in underground storage. Two of the three Iranian nuclear storage depots, at Fordow and Isfahan, are "hot"—that is, filled with radioactivity from what clearly has been significant degradation of the storage containers Iran had used for the keep saving of Iran's hope of eventually upgrading the stored material to weapons level and becoming another player in the nuclear world.

I have been told by sources close to US and Israeli intelligence that a recent inspection of the underground storage areas led to the death of at least two Iranian technicians—they may have been members of the Iranian military—who were exposed to high levels of radioactivity.

The contamination from the enriched materials can only be seen as a huge setback to any Iranian long-range plan to become a nuclear power. It was clear in private talks here in Washington that, as one official put it, "the nuclear threat from Iran is no longer there.

"An underground cache of partially enriched uranium, which is un-recoverable, is not a nuclear weapon," the official said.

End of link.

So add it up: record USA energy sales, no one buying Iranian crude, Iranian leadership is now isolated from the world, the world now yawning at the Strait of Hormuz being closed, and Iran's nuclear ambitions suffering a massive set back, and that sounds like winning to me.

It is funny in that you have guys in the media mouting off like Trump and so called experts like Peter Zeihan saying Trump's actions would lead to massive inflation because of higher oil prices and food shortages due to a lack of fertilizer are not admitting that they were wrong. No, it is the Democratic loser speak we have heard so often with Trump. The economy is terrible and the food shortages are coming. We were not wrong just early. It really is fucking pathetic.