American Politics

[Elvis 2008]

Hi Elvis, Several comments. Typically the hottest IPO's are allocated mostly to institutions, and the majority flip the shares early on. That's largely why the fund managers don't give a shit about the fundamentals of the business. They're going to take their allotment of Broadcast.com and sell it maybe on the first day. The institutions who get the IPO shares are typically the best customers of the investment banks (Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, et cetera) so that's why they get first shot. The investment banks purposely try to underprice the shares to reward their best clients (hedge funds and mutual funds and the like). The company that's going public and the retail investors who pay more the first day for the same shares are the ones who get screwed.

I would not buy shares in a variable interest entity. As I understand it, the legal status of VIE's is uncertain or worse in the PRC. The Chinese government could at any point make the shares of VIE investors worthless.

Insiders of companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are the least likely to engage in fraud. The reason is they can go to jail or worse..

That is way better than I thought. At the end of the day, you can have these laws in place but there are so many ways to get around them. What I learned with the Wall Street type is they defer trust to management but if you screw the street, they rarely forget. IOW, management's reputation is more important than the laws. I was amazed at how many ding-aling con men there are as CEOs but when I actually met someone who knew what they were doing and what they talked about, their companies almost always did well. Anyway, I will do a deep dive on these Chinese car companies although I always tend to be way early on things, but you have persuaded me to take them off the no go list.

About the first video, I haven't looked at BYD but did take a quick look at Geely and Chery. While the speaker obviously has a lot of experience in China, I don't think he understand what's going on with payables. The companies at the top of the food chain, like the car manufacturers, are very slow paying suppliers, and treat the payables as free loans. I bet if you look at the accounts receivable turns of the auto parts companies, they conversely would look off the charts. I didn't see Geely or Chery as having problematic balance sheets. Chery in fact has 108 billion renminbi cash, higher than its 91 billion accounts payable. I'm not buying his claim of auto companies generating tons of fictitious revenues by delivering cars to dealers that they can't sell. If that were happening you should see off the charts accounts receivable and low operating cash flow, which isn't the case with Geely or Chery.

Buffett got out of BYD after owning a big and profitable stake. There was something he didn't like, but I am not interested in BYD. They got a bigger name but I do not think they are all that great.

Geely is selling for 8. 2 X 2026 earnings, has an ROE of 19%, and dividend yield of 2. 7%. The dividend yield may seem skimpy, but given its growing revenues and profits at 20%+ per year, that's reasonable. They're using most of their income (actually free cash flow) to invest in growth instead of paying it out as dividends.

Chery's selling for 6. 4 X 2026 earnings, has an ROE of 49% and dividend yield of 3. 7%. Likewise it's growing.

Compare to Tesla at 231 X earnings, 5% ROE, no dividend, and flat or negative growth since 2023. Admittedly the market is giving them more credit for pie in the sky like self driving cars and robots than EV's. Still, which of these three shares look more like pieces of paper (if you had share certificates) than interests in a business?

Tesla is probably the least interesting of Musk's businesses IMO. Just to show you how early I am, I heard of people bragging about Teslas like in 2015,2016, and they were crap back then BTW with all kind of quality issues. From a valuation standpoint, Chery and Geely look scrumptious. I get why Geely is ahead of Chery. Chery is like a Chevy and I liken Geely more to like a Lincoln.

The big risk is dog eat dog competition in Chinese cars, which has already surfaced and which may destroy margins and returns. Please note this runs counter to your view about other industries, that the Chinese may cut prices to dirt cheap, put the competition out of business, and then raise prices sky high. I don't think this will ever happen in autos. But in say rare earth materials and magnets, yeah, that's very logical.

Yeah, well, I am not thinking of profits in China. If the car companies break even there, that would be fine with me. Chile is one of the few nations in the worlds that does not have tariffs on cars and they give you a reliable indicator of how cheap Chinese cars in theory could be. In Mexico, they are a little cheaper versus a lot cheaper in Chile due to the Mexican tariff structure.

Right now, the American car consumer does not know how badly they are being ripped off. If you see what you can get in China for 50 grand versus what you can get in the USA, it would make the consumer mad. As of now, the car tariffs are holding but once that dam breaks, and I think it is inevitable that it will, you will start to see Chinese car companies making profits like crazy in the American market. That is the growth I would be investing in. It is not even so much the new car sales, but the service departments are where dealers make their huge $.

The car snobs at the auto magazines are still making fun of Chinese cars, but just five or ten years ago, Chinese cars were junk. Despite the claims of the snobs, I was seeing real world people saying they were fine with Chinese quality. And today from what I have seen, there are features you did not get in legacy auto makers. So yeah, you have cheap stocks with the potential to explode. The problem is my guess is these explosion is five to ten years away.

[Elvis 2008]

Yeah, don't let one get started by alerting authorities about the earliest cases so tried and proven mitigating isolation and quarantine measures can be taken to prevent it from becoming a Pandemic.

It is astonishing how incapable of understanding or unwilling to understand the simplest points you MAGA Cultists are.

To the contrary, it is amazing how dumb you Dems continue to be. You still are yapping about quarantines? I am sorry. Where did quarantines actually fucking work with Covid?

And China had no incentive to quarantine on their own? Yeah, the Chinese were so stupid that it would take one American epidemiologist to tell them to quarantine. This is not just TDS. It is so racist it is not even funny. One thing I get with you Tooms is the dumber you get, the more cocky you get.

The reason Fauci was pardoned is that he went around an Obama executive branch order and started doing gain of function research on his own. He paid for the creation of the Covid virus. He made certain it was engineered to be so contagious that quarantines would not work. And once the virus was mistakenly leaked from a lab, he did all in his power to say the virus came from nature. And he repeatedly lied under oath about funding with regards to his virus and his taxpayer funded coverup. Hell, he even had so much influence that we now know that the CIA and FBI initially backed off saying Covid was a lab leak.

If Fauci ever went to trial and a jury objectively looked at the facts, he would be in prison for life if not executed. But you dumb Dems wanted to continue the fantasy of "Trump's pandemic" and so Biden pardoned this criminal. Meanwhile, you dumb Dems searched Melania's sock drawer, engaged in POS crock civil cases against Trump, and then came up with this crazy criminal offense that was literally invented.

So Fauci pays for creation of a virus that makes billions sick and kills millions, but you are okay with that. Trump paid off a porn star not to talk, which is legal BTW, and you dumb Dems cooked that up to be a crime because how he filed the paperwork was wrong. Unfuckingbelievable.

And you think you Dems lost in 2024 because of Muslims? You are mentally ill.

[Canada]

Elvis2008 needs to stop lying about me and pulling statements out of his (insert color of your choice) just because he needs a lot of bleach to do his laundry (Think Racial Issues and the outfits they wear. Did anyone see him marching?

ROTFLMAO!

I trade based on Elliot Wave Analysis which looks at price structure and levels. I no longer trade on the basis of fundamental analysis. From a fundamental analysis standpoint the indexes look over valued do me. From a EW analysis basis a correction of 20 to 40% is in the cards. I've already sold off of the majority of my stock portfolio. The remaining stocks I hold are in highly focused in the area I believe will endure through the AI decimation of companies..

The USA markets are very strong right now. Gains in the last 18 months have been amazing and will continue once Trump economic programs kick off. There are billions of dollars of new factories being built in steel, cars and technology with the increased investment in America. The only thing that may slow the markets is if the democrats win the mid terms. Hopefully not but if they do it will probably only be the house and not the senate. As dumb as the democrats are right now I feel good about republicans keeping the house and senate. The worst thing a person could have done was get out of the market in the last 2 years. It has been a huge win for the market and Americans with 401 retirement in last 18 months.

[Canada]

So when WTI price bounces back into the 80's who will catch the blame for that? Democrats?

Can you or your boy Elvis2008 give me a credible reason why Trump should get credit for the movement of the price of oil?

I'm listening!

One of the main reasons is when Trump won the presidency he encouraged oil drilling and USA now is producing 13,500,000 barrels per day. Also reduced regulations for the oil companies now make it possible to make good money at $72 a barrel. Chevron said profits are good enough at $72 a barrel to drill, do exploration and to make capital improvements worldwide. I expect a glut of oil in next year and see prices in the $60-$65 range.

[Axel Heyst]

Hi Axel, Since Subcmdr passed on #3, I'll take that action if you're so inclined. The Republicans may indeed hold the Senate, but they're going to get clobbered in the House. I feel strongly about that, and wouldn't feel right taking advantage of you. So, I'the propose this bet. As such time as I make it to Sao Paulo and you happen to be there, if you win (Republicans win both House and Senate) I'll buy you time with the hottest garota de programa at Scandallo, not to exceed 2000 reais. If you win, you just buy the round of drinks. Or we can do something mutually agreeable at another location.

Hey Tiny, that is quite a generous proposition considering that approximately 300 br of Scandallo's 500 br entry fee is consumable after 7 pm and 100% consumable before 7 pm, so in effect you are offering me 10 to 1 odds. Are you sure you want to place this bet? I am not interested in taking your money, so I will tell you right now that if we make this wager, I will not seek out a 2,000 br girl because I never do. The sweet spot for me at Scandallo is between 800 br and 1000 br for very attractive girls, not the so-called super stars and the most I have ever given a Scan girl was 1200 br for ST. To put it in context, I give my #1 Scandallo girl 900 br for our particular version of "modified ST" which (we don't watch the clock) effectively means 5 to 7 hours and 2 or 3 shags and we do not do sleepovers by mutual consent. KKK /555.

In any case, you are on if you want to make the wager. I just returned from SP about 10 days ago and I have already booked my next SP trip in October. It would be outstanding to meet you in SP then if possible. But I am also seriously thinking about doing the "BIG TRIP": MIA to BKK (and Pattaya) / BKK to CGK / CGK to PNH to BKK / BKK to GRU / and finally GRU to MIA. And my plan is to arrive in BKK immediately after Songkran and get to SP before May 22 in order to celebrate Valeria's 30th birthday. So, either way we should be able to hook up, Buddha willing of course.

A. H.

[SubCmdr]

The most interesting fact of the last week was seeing oil prices decline

So when WTI price bounces back into the 80's who will catch the blame for that? Democrats?

Can you or your boy Elvis2008 give me a credible reason why Trump should get credit for the movement of the price of oil?

I'm listening!

[SubCmdr]

Elvis2008 needs to stop lying about me and pulling statements out of his (insert color of your choice) just because he needs a lot of bleach to do his laundry (Think Racial Issues and the outfits they wear. Did anyone see him marching?

ROTFLMAO!

I trade based on Elliot Wave Analysis which looks at price structure and levels. I no longer trade on the basis of fundamental analysis. From a fundamental analysis standpoint the indexes look over valued do me. From a EW analysis basis a correction of 20 to 40% is in the cards. I've already sold off of the majority of my stock portfolio. The remaining stocks I hold are in highly focused in the area I believe will endure through the AI decimation of companies.

Here is a link to MSTR EW Analysis:

https://youtu.be/qlZPj86_DXE?si=bXNXS4Vw__c3V6Kr

How does this relate to American Politics? The Stock Market of the Dis United States of America is rigged. POTUS is moving the country towards Socialism (state ownership of assests).

And.

The Dis United States of America is a Plutocracy.. Only those who own hard assets will benefit when the reset occurs. It will not be televised.

[SubCmdr]

AH, You you propose a bet with me but instead talk male bovine excrement with Elvis2008 about me. Very ungentlemanly if you ask me.

But I enjoy reading your posts, Elvis, which I find informative and entertaining.

I completely disagree. Every post where Elvis2008 has responded to me or has something to say about me contains a insult that has nothing to do with the subject at hand. Example:

From Elvis2008.

Did you really have to quote SC? Now, I have to sign out and read the BS he wrote. It is like 10% information and 90% his bragging about his race and dick size. And after reading it, 10% was generous.

Furthermore he has called me a Socialist. I don't care what people call me. I went to go get pasta at my favorite late night spot and got called a racial epitaph from a white farang (country of origin unknown). He wanted to fight me just because I am black and in a country he thinks is a personal playground for only individuals of his race. Very similar to Elvis2008..

POTUS is dabbling in Socialism right now With state ownership of corporate interests. WTF?

2nd, on the important subject of hyper-inflation and food prices as measured by the CPI-UU Food component, I consider the possibility that it will be running up to 30% year over year by the end of December 2026 to be extremely, extremely unlikely, but I didn't want to hit SubCmdr over the head with my "opinion". That's why I offered him a friendly Gentleman's wager and if I am wrong and I lose the wager, I will admit it over a few very strong drinks, KKK, and party on. But even more importantly, I will want to know how and why the US Economy went hyper and why I missed seeing the danger as late as July 2026.

At least you will be willing to admit that you are wrong. Elvis does not. I have documented his errors in several threads all over ISG and he has yet to admit to them.

The reason why you are going to miss the rise in inflation is because you are rich!

Just like your boy Elvis2008 who flys to Latin America to be a International Trick complaining about others who have paid into a system in the Dis United States of America and are not receiving benefits from it. You see the rich don't concern themselves with the problems of a poor black man such as myself. Figure if I am going to be accused to something I'll give my accuser some thing to actually work with. The rich own assets which go up during inflationary times. They have the income to absorb food inflation without a problem. A poor black man such as myself (and others black and non black) cannot do this without sacrifice.

3rd, yeah with Trump's guy at the head of the FED I see only one possible rate increase between now and the end of the year based on current data. But if the Fed does decide to raise interest rates, it most likely will not happen until after the election unless there is hard new evidence of significant new inflation growth.

We will see. This will be on the record. January. I see the Dis United States of America returning to this situation:

Runaway inflation in the United States, known as the Great Inflation, persisted from the mid-1960s until the early 1980s, peaking at 14% by the end of the decade.

This period was characterized by stagflation, where high unemployment coexisted with rising prices, defying traditional economic models like the Phillips Curve.

Key drivers included OPEC oil embargoes (1973 and 1979) that caused supply shocks, expansionary monetary policy, and policy errors such as the failure of Nixons wage and price controls.*

*The inflationary spiral was only broken when Paul Volcker became Federal Reserve Chair in 1979 and aggressively raised interest rates to 20%, triggering a severe recession but ultimately restoring price stability.

Don't really give a fuck about any of this stuff. Above my pay grade. I have positioned myself for the tidal wave that is going to hit most citizens of the Dis United States of America and drown them while the rich sit on their yachts and bet on who is going under first. I've got my life raft on.

[SubCmdr]

Hi Elvis, Several comments. Typically the hottest IPO's are allocated mostly to institutions, and the majority flip the shares early on. That's largely why the fund managers don't give a shit about the fundamentals of the business. They're going to take their allotment of Broadcast.com and sell it maybe on the first day. The institutions who get the IPO shares are typically the best customers of the investment banks (Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, et cetera) so that's why they get first shot. The investment banks purposely try to underprice the shares to reward their best clients (hedge funds and mutual funds and the like). The company that's going public and the retail investors who pay more the first day for the same shares are the ones who get screwed.

Another solid example of how the stock market is rigged. But the time IPO is available to the public all the initial investors are paid and the public (if they buy) get the crumbs that are left over and hope.

[EihTooms]

No, Elvis, the next Dem President won't be able to "hire" these people to shove the diarrhea back up into the asses of Americans and make it all better.

Trump's Pandemic Part 2? It isn't a virulent rapid-spreading airborne virus so he probably isn't all that excited about it. But I can see how spreading parasites would be the right fit for Know Nothing, Do Nothing Deadbeat Repubs.

Trumps CDC Stopped Monitoring Explosive Diarrhea Parasite Before Outbreak.
July 10, 2026

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum...spora-12180951

The Trump administrations Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) scaled back a federal-state partnership that monitors foodborne illnesses, including cyclospora, a year before several states began reporting an outbreak of cyclospora infection, a foodborne illness that can cause "explosive" diarrhea.

In July of 2025, the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, known as FoodNet, reduced a program that tracked food poisoning infections. The required monitoring was cut down to two pathogens, down from eight. The program had been in place for three decades.

As of July 2026, cases of cyclosporiasis have surged across the country, with an abnormally large outbreak of 700 cases having been reported in Michigan, and cases having been recorded across 17 states.

Most Trump supporters and anyone else who could have but did not vote for Kamala Harris in 2024 probably won't notice a difference between "explosive diarrhea" and what happens at a Trump rally or in their learned discussions about the economy, stock-trading, fossil fuel vs renewable energy, etc.

Investing in diaper manufacturing and sales companies might be a good idea right about now.

[EihTooms]

That again? So this one epidemiologist had the answer for the pandemic? What is his name, and what was his solution? If he had the answer, why didn't Biden hire him and stop the pandemic?

And Bob Woodward? You mean the CIA hack who caused a coup in our country with Richard Nixon and according to Bill Murray made up a completely fictionalized account of the death of John Belushi?

And so you think Trump is this great intellect now? He was not exaggerating? He was not listening to epidemiologists telling him what he wanted to hear? Namely, the epidemiologists were telling Trump the virus spreading was all China's fault.

It amazes me how brain dead you are even now. The epidemiologists, the very people you think could have saved the world and the ones Trump fired, were the ones who created the virus and moved it to China in the first place. You have such TDS that you do not see how these same epidemiologists wanted to point the spotlight anywhere but on them.

And you are such a sucker with your TDS, you bought that lie hook, line, and sinker. For the hundredth time, what specific action could Trump, the Chinese, or the epidemiologists have undertaken that would have stopped the pandemic in its tracks? By this time, it is pretty obvious that you do not have an answer to that question. You are just blaming Trump because you want to.

Back when Trump allegedly said what he did, Covid was being treated with isolation. The epidemiologists swore that the reason the virus was still spreading was due to people not being compliant. The Chinese did what the epidemiologists swore would work..

"Had the answer for the pandemic"?

Yeah, don't let one get started by alerting authorities about the earliest cases so tried and proven mitigating isolation and quarantine measures can be taken to prevent it from becoming a Pandemic. Is that too complicated for you? Hell, it wasn't even too complicated for Trump and he's the dumbest person to ever waddle into the Oval Office.

Bob Woodward's audio recording of Trump admitting if only someone had reported the initial Covid cases "two months earlier" we could have stopped it "easily" should not be believed because Woodword reports bad news about your idols?

It is astonishing how incapable of understanding or unwilling to understand the simplest points you MAGA Cultists are.

I can't even believe I am reading this but there it is; you think the people Trump defunded and removed from their station in China to alert the world to early cases of potential Pandemic-level viruses so that measures can be taken to prevent Pandemics from developing could have been "hired" back by President Joe Biden in 2021 to "stop the pandemic" that had already been raging worldwide for a year and deaths from were snowballing into at least a million in America alone?

Seriously?

Lololol. Sorry to laugh. But good lord man you MAGAs are dumb.

Here's more.

The A. I. Overview:

The team Trump removed had a record of successfully identifying viruses
+3
You are referring to the PREDICT project, a global early-warning system funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Over its operational span, the initiative identified over 1,200 viruses with pandemic potential, including more than 160 novel coronaviruses, before its funding was allowed to lapse.

The PREDICT Project and Viral Discovery Launched in 2009, the PREDICT project focused on identifying pathogens that could spill over from animal hosts to humans. Over a decade of field research, epidemiologists and wildlife veterinarians operating across more than 30 countries sampled animals and people to map out potential viral threats. The initiative discovered hundreds of novel viruses, which notably included Ebolavirus, Marburg, and SARS-related coronaviruses.The program operated on the principle of proactive surveillancefinding and monitoring threats in "hot interfaces" where humans and wildlife interactto stop potential outbreaks before they spread globally.

Program Conclusion. In September 2019, the funding for the initiative's fieldwork was allowed to run out under the Trump administration, leading to the layoff of scientists and analysts. While the administration later granted emergency extensions to help labs cope with the initial COVID-19 outbreak, the project's foundational predictive and proactive surveillance mission was discontinued.For a deeper look into how emerging viral threats are monitored and anticipated before they turn into global health crises:58sThe Next Pandemic Might Already Be DetectableYouTube**How to Survive ShowPredict (USAID) - WikipediaHistory. Predict was launched in 2009 in response following the influenza A virus subtype H5N1 "bird flu" outbreak in 2005. It was designed and overseen by Denn...WikipediaTrump administration ended pandemic early-warning program to detect ...Apr 2, 2563 BE The project, launched by the U.S. Agency for International Development in 2009, identified 1,200 different viruses that had the potential to erupt into pandemic...YahooPREDICT | School of Veterinary MedicinePREDICT's work has contributed to: * Strengthening global surveillance and laboratory diagnostic capabilities * Supporting preparedness and the Global Health Se...UC Davis One Health InstitutePREDICT Project | Wildlife Health Center / School of Veterinary MedicineThe PREDICT project's goal is to enable global surveillance for pathogens that could spillover from animal hosts to people. The project is building capacities t...UC DavisWhat happened to PREDICT? - PauboxDec 7, 2563 BE "PREDICT has made significant contributions to strengthening global surveillance and laboratory diagnostic capabilities for new and known viruses," reads a USAI...Paubox EmailProgram ended by Trump administration last year helped labs detect viruses that ...Apr 2, 2563 BE In September, the Trump administration ended a $200 million pandemic early-warning program called PREDICT that trained scientists in laboratories around the wor...The Week AI can make mistakes, so double-check responses

Trump administration ended pandemic early-warning program to detect coronaviruses.
April 3, 2020

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-adm...233508840.html

Two months before the novel coronavirus is thought to have begun its deadly advance in Wuhan, China, the Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat.

The project, launched by the U.S. Agency for International Development in 2009, identified 1,200 different viruses that had the potential to erupt into pandemics, including more than 160 novel coronaviruses. The initiative, called PREDICT, also trained and supported staff in 60 foreign laboratories including the Wuhan lab that identified SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Field work ceased when the funding ran out in September, and organizations that worked on the PREDICT program laid off dozens of scientists and analysts, said Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, a key player in the program.

Hey, I know! Maybe Trump can now "hire back" those scientists and analysts to "stop" him from launching a quagmire, counterproductive Repub War of Choice in Iran Based on a Lie.

Good idea, huh? Not too late, right?

Lolol.

[Tiny 12]

LOL. Well, you really have no rights as a shareholder in the USA really until you acquire a big stake. This reminds of the Mark Cuban classic post here, https://blogmaverick.com/2008/09/08/...ks-and-money/: In July of 1998, my partner Todd Wagner and I took our company, Broadcast.com, public with Morgan Stanley. Broadcast.com used audio and video streaming to enable companies to communicate live with customers, employees, vendors, anyone with a PC.

Part of the process of taking a new company public is something called a road show. The road show is just that. A company getting ready to sell shares visits the big mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds anyone who can buy millions of dollars of stock in a single order. It's a sales tour. 7 days, 63 presentations.

Prior to the road show, we put together an amazing presentation. We hired consultants to help us. We practiced and practiced. We argued about what we should and shouldn't say. We had Morgan Stanley and others ask us every possible question they could think of so we wouldn't look stupid when we sat in front of these savvy investors.

Savvy investors? I was shocked. Of the 63 companies and 400-plus participants we visited, I would be exaggerating if I said we got 10 good questions about our business and how it worked. The vast majority of people in the meetings had no clue who we were or what we did. They just knew that there were a lot of people talking about the company and they should be there.

The lack of knowledge at the meetings got to be such a joke between Todd and I that we used to purposely mess up to see if anyone noticed. Or we would have pet lines that we would make up to crack each other up. Did we ruin our chance for the IPO? Was our product so complicated that no one got it and as a result no one bought the stock? Hell no. They might not have had a clue, but that didn't stop them from buying the stock. We batted 1. 000. Every single investor we talked to placed the maximum order allowable for the stock.

On July 18,1998, Broadcast.com went public as BCST, priced at 18 dollars a share. It closed at $62.75, a gain of almost 250 percent, which at the time was the largest one day rise of a new offering in the history of the stock market. The same mutual fund managers who were completely clueless about our company placed multimillion orders for our stock. Multimillion dollar orders using your money.

Price-earnings ratios, price-sales, the present value of future cash flows, pick one. Fundamentals are merely metrics created to help stockbrokers sell stocks, and to give buyers reassurance when buying stocks. Even how profits are calculated is manipulated to give confidence to buyers.

I know that sounds crazy, but the stock market has gone from a place where investors actually own part of a company and have a say in their management, to a market designed to enrich insiders by allowing them to sell shares they buy cheaply through options. Companies continuously issue new shares to their managers without asking their existing shareholders. Those managers then leak that stock to the market a little at a time. It's unlimited dilution of existing shareholders' stakes, death by a thousand dilutive cuts. If that isn't a scam, I don't know what is. Individual shareholders have nothing but the chance to sell it to the next sucker. A mutual fund buys one million shares of a company with your and your coworkers' money. You own 1 percent of the company. Six weeks later you own less, and all that money went to insiders, not to the company. And no one asked your permission, and you didn't know you got diluted or by how much till 90 days after the fact if that soon.

End of link.

Oh, and as big of a scam as the overall American stock market is, the Chinese one is worse.

This is from a search on Chinese stock rights: Foreign investors generally have no direct ownership rights or legal recourse when buying Chinese stocks listed on USA Exchanges. Instead of owning shares in the actual Chinese operating company, investors purchase stock in an offshore Variable Interest Entity (VIE), typically a shell company registered in the Cayman Islands. This structure relies on contracts rather than equity ownership, meaning shareholders hold zero controlling interest and possess only a contractual claim to economic benefits that Chinese courts may deem unenforceable or illegal.

What cracks me up about this is that this is Geely is like Nvidia. You cannot make a case for the stock as really by law the stock is worthless, but if you gamble based on name recognition, then my bet would be Geely is the first Chinese car maker to come to market. They own Volvo and have the USA infrastructure. Trump has said he would let Chinese cars in as long as they were manufactured in the USA and the lower labor costs are not really what make Chinese cars cheaper.

If you want to look at fundamentals, you can see why the auto industry in China IS a scam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tS_fJJxMjn4&t=632s.

Just like long term there is no way Nvidia can grow or deliver the numbers they are now, the car companies and China are going down. It will take awhile but they are doing much the same things as Japan did and going into massive debt.

However, in the short and medium term, yeah, the Chinese cars will blow the roof of foreign competitors like they have done in Chile and are doing in Mexico. As for why, it is the engineering talent is much cheaper and that so many of the supply chains are based in China. In this video, the youtuber describes why what takes 3 months for Europe to model takes 3 days in China because one part of China produces 90% of all consumer electronics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=talyf00Cl24

When Ford looked at changing things in the cars, it took way longer and was way more expensive. The legacy auto companies really cannot compete with the Chinese.

Yeah, the Cherys are nice vehicles, but if you look at the top rated ones in Mexico, Geely cars are usually rated higher and because of the infrastructure with owning Volvo, I bet that Geely will be the first to market. I think that the Chinese companies have decided to dabble in Mexico first and then step up to the big leagues in the USA. Apparently, a lot of the Volvo engineers have been giving styling input on the Geelys and like I said, they do look really cool especially on the inside.

So yeah, Geely is a gamble but it is probably a good one.

Hi Elvis, Several comments. Typically the hottest IPO's are allocated mostly to institutions, and the majority flip the shares early on. That's largely why the fund managers don't give a shit about the fundamentals of the business. They're going to take their allotment of Broadcast.com and sell it maybe on the first day. The institutions who get the IPO shares are typically the best customers of the investment banks (Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, et cetera) so that's why they get first shot. The investment banks purposely try to underprice the shares to reward their best clients (hedge funds and mutual funds and the like). The company that's going public and the retail investors who pay more the first day for the same shares are the ones who get screwed.

I would not buy shares in a variable interest entity. As I understand it, the legal status of VIE's is uncertain or worse in the PRC. The Chinese government could at any point make the shares of VIE investors worthless.

Insiders of companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are the least likely to engage in fraud. The reason is they can go to jail or worse.

The next safest would be H shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong. Most of these are actually Cayman Islands or British Virgin Islands registered companies that own Chinese subsidiaries. These are a little dicey because the insiders occasionally bankrupt the Hong Kong parent and keep control of the Chinese subsidiaries. Geely and Chery are H shares.

The most dangerous are Chinese companies listed on foreign exchanges, like the USA, Australia, etc. A lot of those, I'the say the majority, turn out badly for investors.

The Geely entity traded in the USA is not a VIE. Rather it's an ADR or American Depository Receipt. To cater to investors who are unable to buy on the Hong Kong exchange, a USA bank will buy shares of the Geely, and then issue depository receipts to USA Investors. The bank holds the shares, and passes dividends, taking its cut, onto the holders of the ADR's. Anytime you want you can convert the ADR's to the H shares by paying a fee. I would buy the H shares instead, as trading liquidity is much better.

About the first video, I haven't looked at BYD but did take a quick look at Geely and Chery. While the speaker obviously has a lot of experience in China, I don't think he understand what's going on with payables. The companies at the top of the food chain, like the car manufacturers, are very slow paying suppliers, and treat the payables as free loans. I bet if you look at the accounts receivable turns of the auto parts companies, they conversely would look off the charts. I didn't see Geely or Chery as having problematic balance sheets. Chery in fact has 108 billion renminbi cash, higher than its 91 billion accounts payable. I'm not buying his claim of auto companies generating tons of fictitious revenues by delivering cars to dealers that they can't sell. If that were happening you should see off the charts accounts receivable and low operating cash flow, which isn't the case with Geely or Chery.

Geely is selling for 8. 2 X 2026 earnings, has an ROE of 19%, and dividend yield of 2. 7%. The dividend yield may seem skimpy, but given its growing revenues and profits at 20%+ per year, that's reasonable. They're using most of their income (actually free cash flow) to invest in growth instead of paying it out as dividends.

Chery's selling for 6. 4 X 2026 earnings, has an ROE of 49% and dividend yield of 3. 7%. Likewise it's growing.

Compare to Tesla at 231 X earnings, 5% ROE, no dividend, and flat or negative growth since 2023. Admittedly the market is giving them more credit for pie in the sky like self driving cars and robots than EV's. Still, which of these three shares look more like pieces of paper (if you had share certificates) than interests in a business?

Please note the parent company of Geely owns Volvo, not Geely. Still as you pointed out there are benefits from the Volvo connection. They guy who runs Geely looks about average for China in terms of how he treats minority shareholders. Meaning you're more likely to get screwed than with a USA Company with a large float.

I don't know if Chery or Geely are buys, but they're a lot more interesting than Tesla. If as you suspect Geely becomes the Toyota of Japan it's probably cheap.

The big risk is dog eat dog competition in Chinese cars, which has already surfaced and which may destroy margins and returns. Please note this runs counter to your view about other industries, that the Chinese may cut prices to dirt cheap, put the competition out of business, and then raise prices sky high. I don't think this will ever happen in autos. But in say rare earth materials and magnets, yeah, that's very logical.

In the accounting realm, it's probably not payables and inventory stuffing that are the most worrisome. Capitalizing R&D to jack up earnings may be though. I don't know, again I haven't looked at this closely.

Thanks again for your thoughts on Geely. When I get some time I'm going to take a closer look.

As to the second video by the same presenter, he's spot on. He illustrates my point, why do you want to jack up tariffs sky high on items like socks and toys, so the Chinese move production to Vietnam or wherever? And it illustrates your point that the haphazard way Trump implemented tariffs was stupid.

In China you have the "ecosystem", the suppliers and manufacturers located close to each other, and they're extremely efficient and competitive. As he put it, "you can move a factory in a year, but it takes 40 years for an ecosystem. " His advice to American companies buying Chinese products: "Ask your supplier where a product is made. Go there and you'll find 50 people on the same street making the same thing. " So anyway, for products we'll never make in the USA and which aren't strategic, like socks, why run up the cost on American consumers by forcing the Chinese to reproduce these ecosystems in other countries. Contrary to what Trump pays, it's not the Chinese who ultimately carry most of the burden to build the new factories in Vietnam. It's the Walmart shopper.

[Tiny 12]

Hi SubCmdr, how you doing? I think a lot of shit can happen between now and the end of the year which means almost anything could happen. Meanwhile, I just got back from a fun 5 week trip to SP and right now I am relaxing pool side, having a good time in the free state of Florida, eating my tree ripened mangos, and watching the madness unfurl elsewhere while my stock portfolio keeps going higher.

So, I am up for a little gentleman' s wager if you are:

1) I do not believe overall food prices will rise even close to 30% by the end of the year, so I am willing to bet a 1st round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that overall food prices will not increase 30% by the end of 2026.

2) I think the odds are more like 50/50 that the Fed will raise rates only one time before the end of the year, maybe not even that, so I will bet you a 2nd round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Fed does not raise rates more than one time during the rest of the year.

3) I will also bet you a third round of drinks going to the winner and his favorite girls (limit 3 girls) that the Republicans keep their majority in the House and Senate.

Care to wager? No losers with these bets because by the time we get to the 3rd round we will all be having a good time.

A. H.

Hi Axel, Since Subcmdr passed on #3, I'll take that action if you're so inclined. The Republicans may indeed hold the Senate, but they're going to get clobbered in the House. I feel strongly about that, and wouldn't feel right taking advantage of you. So, I'the propose this bet. As such time as I make it to Sao Paulo and you happen to be there, if you win (Republicans win both House and Senate) I'll buy you time with the hottest garota de programa at Scandallo, not to exceed 2000 reais. If you win, you just buy the round of drinks. Or we can do something mutually agreeable at another location.

[SubCmdr]

AxelHeyst you have a supporter that says your proposed bets are a sure thing!

but that is to be expected with a guy who is "investing" in momentum trades. If you cannot tell me why something you bought went up, that is your winning a gamble not your being smart.

What is a momentum trade? Because I have never made one. Anyone who thinks they can say way exactly something happens in any market is simply delusional.

Here are some traditional ideas as to why markets go up:

Its based on economic theory. The market is comprised of stocks in companies that are trying to generate a revenue. In a (relatively) free market, they should in aggregate generate wealth because they have an incentive to do so. If companies have profits, they will (eventually) distribute them. Investors, know this, but also they know that 1) there are risks involved, and 2) that all else equal, money you have today is better than money you have in the future. For that reason they buy future cash flows at a discount. For all of these reasons you would expect that (probably) the market will go up. Theres always the possibility that it doesnt and thats precisely why you can expect stocks to return more than other less risky investments over the long term.

Why any particular item in said market went up is anyone's guess. If individuals knew why, then they would never make a bad trade.

Markets go up over the long term primarily because corporate earnings and economic output grow. The stock market represents ownership in businesses that generate profit, and as these companies expand, innovate, and increase revenue, their intrinsic value rises, driving share prices higher.

Several key factors sustain this upward trajectory:

Economic Growth and Productivity: A growing population, technological advancements, and increased efficiency allow companies to produce more value, leading to higher aggregate profits.
Inflation: As the general price level of goods and services rises, the nominal value of corporate assets and earnings increases, pushing stock prices up in dollar terms.
Supply and Demand: Continuous buying pressure from investors seeking returns, often amplified by institutional flows and new market participants, exceeds selling pressure in expanding economies.
Market Self-Cleansing: Weak companies fail and are replaced by stronger, more profitable firms, ensuring the overall market index reflects the performance of the most successful businesses.
While short-term fluctuations are driven by market sentiment, interest rates, and geopolitical events, the long-term trend remains upward because capital requires a return on investment, incentivizing the allocation of resources to productive enterprises that generate wealth over time.

But what do you expect from an individual who said I was a Socialist and that you should buy Bonds over NVDA, APPLE and GOLD.

Bond prices fall when interest rates go up. This occurs because existing bonds with fixed, lower coupon rates become less attractive compared to new bonds issued at higher yields. To compete in the secondary market, the price of older bonds must dropoften trading at a discount below their face valueso that their effective yield rises to match current market rates.

The magnitude of this price decline depends on the bond's duration and time to maturity. Long-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes than short-term bonds, meaning their prices will drop more sharply when rates rise. Investors who hold bonds to maturity generally avoid realizing these paper losses, but those who sell before maturity may incur principal losses.

Fidelity Reports:

The 2026 bond market reset
Several major economic crosscurrents converged on the bond market in the first half of the year.

Energy-market disruptions in the Middle East ignited an inflationary impulse. An exceptionally strong corporate earnings backdrop, along with a stabilizing job market, helped ease worries of an economic slowdown, and even stoked talk of a potential reacceleration. And the sum of those forcesadding up to a stronger, more inflationary environmentled investors to reassess whether the Fed would have any leeway to lower interest rates further this year, or might even have to raise interest rates instead.

Individually, each of those forces has generally put upward pressure on interest rates. Taken together, theyve driven a resetting of expectations of where interest rates might land, says Christine Thorpe, institutional portfolio manager on Fidelitys fixed income team.

After seeing significant volatility in much of the first half of the year, interest rates at almost all maturities have been settling into higher trading ranges. In mid-May, the rate on 10-year Treasurys broke out above 4.5%, while the rate on 30-year Treasurys crossed above 5%. And investors now see the odds tilting toward a Fed rate hike before the end of 2026a stark change from the start of the year, when investors expected 2 rate cuts.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-ce...market-outlook

[Axel Heyst]

Did you really have to quote SC? Now, I have to sign out and read the BS he wrote. >snip>

As for inflation and oil prices working their way into overall prices in the future, I have to just shake my head at that. Oil prices are down now. More importantly, the oil futures markets completely yawned at the Gulf War to the point that some were saying that the USA government was rigging the prices. Airliines lock in prices via futures markets all the time. So if you locked in $50 oil and the price spikes to $100, you make a killing. IOW, the idea is we see inflation because higher oil prices means higher plane fares, but that is not the case if the airlines locked in at a certain price of oil, and how many other big oil consumers locked in a cheap oil price? We don't know. And how do you know that the spike of oil prices a few weeks / months ago are not negated due to lower prices today? You cannot quantify that either. So here we go again. Another prediction that is based on nothing..

1st, I feel your pain. Every time one of you guys quotes BKK Bob or one of the other resident lefties, I am exposed to couple lines of BS before I have the time to react and toggle down past the quote. KKK. But I enjoy reading your posts, Elvis, which I find informative and entertaining. Wish I could say the same about Bob's posts.

2nd, on the important subject of hyper-inflation and food prices as measured by the CPI-UU Food component, I consider the possibility that it will be running up to 30% year over year by the end of December 2026 to be extremely, extremely unlikely, but I didn't want to hit SubCmdr over the head with my "opinion". That's why I offered him a friendly Gentleman's wager and if I am wrong and I lose the wager, I will admit it over a few very strong drinks, KKK, and party on. But even more importantly, I will want to know how and why the US Economy went hyper and why I missed seeing the danger as late as July 2026.

3rd, yeah with Trump's guy at the head of the FED I see only one possible rate increase between now and the end of the year based on current data. But if the Fed does decide to raise interest rates, it most likely will not happen until after the election unless there is hard new evidence of significant new inflation growth. The most interesting fact of the last week was seeing oil prices decline and the stock market rally after the "truce" ended and the bombing of Iran resumed indicating the IRGC may be running out of cards to play and its ability to influence oil prices is waning. And this is very good news even for Trump haters even though they will never admit it.