American Politics

[Canada]

A statement like this scares me! The belief that markets only move in one direction. Blinded by political bias because his man or political party is in office. No one has made a factual argument that governments can control the movement of markets.

Are you even old enough to ever have ridden out a bear market in anything?

Government has never controlled the markets but a governments bad policies and increased regulation can be very detrimental to the markets. A strong president and his policies that are beneficial to USA companies strengthen the markets as we have seen the last 18 months. I have ridden out several oil booms and busts and ridden out several bull and bear markets. Bear markets offer the investors great opportunities and that is where you can make your greatest gains. After every bear market a bull market appears. In a bear market you never sell. Just buy more.

[Canada]

Why is it that people think the Stock Market is the end all and be all of investments?

30% of workers in the Dis United States of America do not have a 401 K.

If I am one of those workers the stock market increase has done jack for me. Nor has it done anything for the 30% of my fellow hard working citizens of the Dis United States of America.

But if you are POTUS:

Canada, you need to put down your red, white and blue pom poms, step out of your cheerleading skirt and take a look at the reality for regular citizens of the Dis United States of America like this poor black man just trying make in a world that is easy for you due to privilege given to you from birth.

My family had no money. I left home 30 minutes after I graduated high school with $500 in my pocket and no job. I went to work on the oil rigs. I worked hard. Everyone in USA and Canada could have done the same regardless if they were white, black or any nationality. Being poor at birth did not give me any privilege. You could have done the exact same work I did. Oilfield work is dirty and hard and most people avoid dirty and difficult jobs but the ones that do are usually successful. I worked harder than most. Started my own business and hired hundreds of workers who all received 401 K retirement. Yes 30% of Americans do not have 401 K but 70% do and they have had a windfall the last 18 months. The opportunity for success in USA is much greater than any other country. Reality is a poor black man in USA has this opportunity if they work hard.

[Axel Heyst]

Damn straight. Buy drinks for your own bitches. I'm not buying any for mine because I don't have any. You will be on vacation. Just another farang in Thailand on a wheels up clock. You need bitches. That is why you are coming.

Why must you make everything you post sound like a personal insult? I don't need "bitches". I have a great sexy Brazilian Branca at my beck and call any time I want to see her. I am literally tearing myself away from her to reconnect with Thai girls. I like Thai working girls and I miss them. What's wrong with that? There is no one-way fits all standard of punting. Do what works for you. By your comments here it sounds like you are Wham Bam Thank Ya Ma'am kind of punter. There is nothing wrong with that style of play, I do it myself and I am a frequent daytime client in BKK oilies and SP clincas that provide this kind of service, but I am also into having GFE relationships with special girls who occasionally cross my path and these relationships can last a long time. If you don't like that style of play for whatever reason, then don't do it. But why criticize and put down those who do? I don't get that side of your personality.

On LOS: I love Thai food and I can't find any decent Thai restaurants in all of southern Florida. I also like the Thai Buddhist culture and the vibe. What else? I really like southern Thai island beaches. An interesting raw comparison would be Rio vs Phuket and guess what, Phuket has better beaches and better food if you prefer good Thai food over Rio's local and western cuisine. As for girls, I think that Rio, which is vastly inferior to Sao Paulo in this department, is still better than Phuket. That's my opinion anyway and I am sticking to it.

A. H.

"Suffragette City" by David Bowie.

Hey man, ah leave me alone, you know, you know. Hey man, I got to straighten my face. This mellow black chick just put my spine out of place.

Ah don't lean on me man, 'cause you can't afford the ticket. I'm back from Suffragette City.

Ah don't lean on me man. 'Cause you ain't got time to check it. You know my Suffragette City. Is out of sight, she's all right. A suffragette city, a suffragette city.

I'm back from Suffragette City, I'm back from Suffragette City. Oooh-haa, a suffragette city, suffragette.

Ahhh, Wham Bam Thank Ya Ma'am!

[SubCmdr]

The worst thing a person could have done was get out of the market in the last 2 years. It has been a huge win for the market and Americans with 401 retirement in last 18 months.

Why is it that people think the Stock Market is the end all and be all of investments?

As of recent data, 37% of U.S. adults hold stocks, bonds, ETFs, or mutual funds in taxable brokerage accounts outside of retirement accounts like 401(k)s or IRAs, according to the Federal Reserve's 2025 Survey of Household Economics and Decision-making.*

This means that while roughly 58% of American adults own stock in some form (including through retirement plans), only about one-third of the population has invested in the market through a direct, non-retirement vehicle.*

The remaining majority of stock owners participate primarily through workplace retirement plans or individual retirement accounts rather than active brokerage trading.

30% of workers in the Dis United States of America do not have a 401 K.

As of 2024, approximately 70 million active participants were served by 401(k) plans, which held roughly $8.9 trillion in assets.

In terms of access, 71.5 million American workers had access to 401(k) accounts in 2023, representing about 67% of all US employees.

*Participation rates vary significantly by employment type, with 80% of union workers participating compared to 50% of nonunion workers.

If I am one of those workers the stock market increase has done jack for me. Nor has it done anything for the 30% of my fellow hard working citizens of the Dis United States of America.

But if you are POTUS:

Donald Trump has made an estimated $1.4 billion to $2.2 billion in personal profit since returning to the presidency in January 2025, with his net worth surging by approximately $3 billion to reach between $6.5 billion and $7.3 billion by mid-2026.

The primary driver of this wealth accumulation is his family's cryptocurrency ventures, particularly World Liberty Financial, which generated over $1 billion in proceeds through token sales and foreign investments, including a significant deal with the UAE.

Cryptocurrency and Business Ventures constitute the bulk of his earnings, with financial disclosures showing roughly $1.4 billion in crypto-related income alone from entities like World Liberty Financial and Celebration Coins.

Additional revenue streams include licensing his name to international hospitality projects, settling lawsuits with media and tech companies for multi-million dollar sums, and avoiding a $515 million penalty in a New York fraud case due to legal wins..

Canada, you need to put down your red, white and blue pom poms, step out of your cheerleading skirt and take a look at the reality for regular citizens of the Dis United States of America like this poor black man just trying make in a world that is easy for you due to privilege given to you from birth.

[SubCmdr]

OK, let's keep it simple.

Yes, it is important to keep things simple as I am just a poor black man trying to make it. I do not have the financial resources and intellectual capacity that men of privilege have such as yourself and your man Elvis2008.

Wager #1 & #2 are on #3 is out. I am not fussy about which index we use. The CPI-you seasonally adjusted month to month or the annual year over year unadjusted, either one is fine with me. But if you don't like CPI then suggest another well-known price index. I do not think different price indices will affect the end results of our wager very much, but we should decide on an index now anyway.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Food was at 348.89 in May 2026, reflecting a 3.08% increase from the previous year. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the average annual growth rate for food prices is approximately 3.47%, with the index base period set to 1982-84=100.

Recent Trends and Context

Inflation Rate: The food inflation rate peaked at roughly 10% in 2022 and has since subsided to about 3% in recent years.
Year-over-Year Change: The index rose from 338.47 in May 2025 to 348.89 in May 2026, with a monthly increase of 0.16% from April 2026.
Long-Term Growth: Since tracking began in 1913, the CPI for Food has increased from a value of 9.917 to 347.21 in 2026, demonstrating significant cumulative price growth over more than a century.

#2

I will probably lose this one because they are changing how the PCE is calculated starting in September of 2026. So the Dis United States of America have decided to game the numbers in order to give the FED room to not raise rates and letting the economy run hot or even lowering them. The bond market always sees through the male bovine excrement manipulation.

The long-term interest rates for U.S. Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds) are currently represented by yields of 5.08% for the 20-year bond and 5.07% for the 30-year bond as of July 13, 2026.

Ask your man Elvis2008 what happens to bond prices when interest rates go up.

And if you don't want to include girly drinks as part of the wager, no problem. I will take care of whomever I am with and you can do the same on your end.

Damn straight. Buy drinks for your own bitches. I'm not buying any for mine because I don't have any. You will be on vacation. Just another farang in Thailand on a wheels up clock. You need bitches. That is why you are coming.

I don't have any particular place in mind because I have been away so long I am reluctant to name one. But I will probably come up with one after I am in town for a few days.

You cannot name anyplace I cannot afford two drinks for you. It is your expenses that will go up if you buy drinks for your the multiple bitches that you want to gloat in front about your win.

If I win we are going to the Bus Bar in Treetown.

So, the 1st thing I plan to do when I return is to revisit all my favorite haunts from back when and then I will start to update my base to include any new places that I like. It's going to fun to be back. I am looking forward to it like a virgin. 555!

I hope you are not a white hoodie wearing mother fucker like your man Elvis2008. If you win and we go to a place where there are bare breasts hanging out and you start talking politics. I'm paying my bar bill for you and walking the fuck out. I have no patience for those who don't have their priorities in order. You keep that in mind.

ROTFLMAO!

[EihTooms]

Few surprises here:

The best states to live in for 2026: No. 1 has a six-year winning streak

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/11/best...ndroidappshare

Return to office mandates and a decline in remote work have companies looking more closely at the quality of life in the place where they establish offices.

That is because workers in many fields remain in short supply, which means companies need to do all they can to attract talent.

States are also emphasizing their quality of life in marketing approaches to lure companies, which is why CNBC is giving more weight to the Quality of Life category in the 2026 Americas Top States for Business study.
..........
To score the states for quality of life, we use hard data on factors like crime rates, air quality and healthcare. We also consider the cost and availability of childcare, inclusiveness of state laws, and reproductive rights. Some states do not make the grade when it comes to providing a great place for residents to live and work. The following states are Americas best places to live this year.

These are Americas 10 worst states to live in for 2026

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/11/wors...ndroidappshare

Crime rates, air quality, healthcare access, worker protections, and civil rights laws are among factors that can hurt a state in quality of life rankings.

With more states touting their quality of life when trying to attract business, CNBC is giving it more weight in the 2026 Americas Top States for Business rankings.

Based on the data, quality of life in some states does not make the grade.
..........
To score the states for quality of life, we use hard data on factors like crime rates, air quality and healthcare. We also consider the cost and availability of childcare, inclusiveness of state laws, and reproductive rights. Some states offer exemplary quality of life. But these ten states do not make the grade. e

[EihTooms]

Alzheimer's?

See, someone like me who posts on-point links and full, factual substantiation for his assertions, sometimes with accompanying charts, graphs and tables, which he then elaborate on to further substantiate his point does not in any way exhibit symptoms of Alzheimer's disease, dementia or cognitive incapacity.

However, people who repeatedly blather on with totally unsubstantiated nonsense and lies, typically so lacking in a link, an accompanying chart, graph or anything else to support their blithering blather that one could logically conclude at this late date they still have no idea how to cite, link, quote or post one on this American Politics forum, like you, Elvis, Tiny and coming on strong from behind, AH, do indeed exhibit serious cognitive incapacity.

There is a similar dynamic among presidents. A president. Who can clearly talk, walk, knows who he is, where he is and what he is doing as well as do what every president of the past several decades, hosts and MCs of public presentations must do; compose, read and understand every word, syllable, sentence, nuance, text and subtext of a speech as it rolls across a two-screen teleprompter, appearing casual and natural, conveying the meaning of every nuance and point of the text, as Joe Biden can do this very day, is miles and miles away from exhibiting signs of those mental disorders.

By stark contrast, a president who can't compose and read a speech on even a single screen teleprompter without mangling word after word, clearly having no idea what he is reading or what it means and instead has to resort to blathering on repeatedly and incoherently about lies that have been debunked dozens of times about the 2020 election being stolen from him, that Joe Biden doesn't know what he's doing or any new mentally deranged comment about "president Putin" sitting right next to him when it is actually president Zelenskyy or "the Islamic Republic of Japan" at a goddam NATO Conference, that gas prices have fallen since he took over, that the USA Stock Market has performed better in the past 18 months under him than it did in the previous 18 months under Biden, that the unemployment rate is at an all-time low, job gains at all time highs, wages rising at all-time highs under him, etc, the kind of stuff Trump does all the time, does indeed exhibit serious symptoms of Alzheimer's disease, dementia and cognitive incapacity.

In fact, Trump boasts about being required by his handlers to take a cognitive assessment test every other week or so. Clearly, there is something seriously wrong with him mentally.

[EihTooms]

To the contrary, it is amazing how dumb you Dems continue to be. You still are yapping about quarantines? I am sorry. Where did quarantines actually fucking work with Covid?

And China had no incentive to quarantine on their own? Yeah, the Chinese were so stupid that it would take one American epidemiologist to tell them to quarantine. This is not just TDS. It is so racist it is not even funny. One thing I get with you Tooms is the dumber you get, the more cocky you get.

The reason Fauci was pardoned is that he went around an Obama executive branch order and started doing gain of function research on his own. He paid for the creation of the Covid virus. He made certain it was engineered to be so contagious that quarantines would not work. And once the virus was mistakenly leaked from a lab, he did all in his power to say the virus came from nature. And he repeatedly lied under oath about funding with regards to his virus and his taxpayer funded coverup..

Quarantines didn't "work" with Trump's Covid Pandemic? What the hell does that mean? Do you mean quarantines didn't work to miraculously make Trump's Pandemic "go away" in January 2021 and stop killing the people who foolishly believed Trump's lies about it for the previous year? Or do you mean that quarantines don't prevent airborne viruses from infecting new victims for lack of exposure to them?

LOL. Please enlighten us about the scientific premise of either or both of those ridiculous contentions.

And I have never said "the Dems lost in 2024 because of Muslims. " Only Kamala Harris. The one typically Dem-voting demographic in the only three swing states that mattered and where Musk millions were spent in those states to swing them along with Netanyahu's delay in honoring the ceasefire until after the election supports that assertion quite well.

In fact, "the Dems" didn't lose seats in the House of Representatives in 2024. They gained seats. And the only 2-3 Repub wins in the Senate were in Red States where the Dem was either retiring or where it was a fluke to have had a Dem Senator in those Red States anyway.

That's a piss poor showing for the "out of White House" Party in a year when much of the globe was experiencing major change elections. America did not experience that at the House level, barely at all at the Senate level and only in a squeaker of a razor-thin margin for a mixed-race female Dem candidate where every "winning" Electoral College vote for Trump came from a tiny handful of a swing of that one demographic on that one issue in the only three swing states that mattered.

Otherwise, no typically Dem-voting demographic on any or all other issues caused a typically Blue state to flip Red or to Trump or give him so much as a single "winning" Electoral College vote. Every "winning" EC vote came from PA, MI and WI and only by a swing of a fraction of 1 percentage point across those three swing states. And without the Muslim Community swinging their votes by 0.75 of a percentage point or roughly 114,900 of their hundreds of thousands of voters in those three swing states away from Harris due to their animosity toward the Biden Administration, Trump would not have won. Harris would have won.

[SubCmdr]

The USA markets are very strong right now. Gains in the last 18 months have been amazing and will continue once.The worst thing a person could have done was get out of the market in the last 2 years. It has been a huge win for the market and Americans with 401 retirement in last 18 months.

A statement like this scares me! The belief that markets only move in one direction. Blinded by political bias because his man or political party is in office. No one has made a factual argument that governments can control the movement of markets.

Are you even old enough to ever have ridden out a bear market in anything?

[SubCmdr]

Will crude go back up into the 80's in the short run? I don't know. Maybe. But it ain't going up to $150 a barrel and staying there and it ain't going to do any permanent damage the US Economy. I will bet on that because 1. It looks like the Iranians are finally about to lose their only advantage which was causing trouble in the Straits of Hormuz and that is not me talking, that is the consensus of the marketplace talking. 2. The oil producing countries in the region will in time develop alternate crude oil distribution methods (pipelines) that will bypass the straits entirely and leave the Iranians to fester in their own pre-industrial crap. In the meantime, America will continue to sell our oil to most of Iran's former customers as long as they remain friendly.

It is too early for victory parades, but a favorable outcome to this war is insight and I give Trump a hell of a lot credit for what he has done so far.

EW anaylsis shows a possible bounce into the 80 in the short term. Then a drop into the 60 - 65 range.

I agree Oil (In general) is not going to 150. But there is going to be a oil shock that no one sees coming. Inflation is already out of control being twice as high as target. I wasn't allowed to be off by 100% in my job when I was working. If I was people died, I wouldn't have a job anymore and would be probably writing this from jail right now.

[SubCmdr]

The worst thing a person could have done was get out of the market in the last 2 years.

Are you kidding me?

Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway is holding a record $397 billion in cash and short-term Treasury bills as of the end of Q1 2026.** This figure represents approximately one-third of the companys total market value and is the largest cash reserve in its history.

The primary drivers for this unprecedented cash hoard include:

High Market Valuations: Key metrics like the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio are significantly above historical norms, leading Buffett to view current stock prices as overvalued.
Lack of Attractive Opportunities: Buffett has stated that he cannot find large-scale investments that meet his strict criteria for margin of safety and circle of competence.
Strategic Selling: Berkshire has actively reduced its equity portfolio, notably cutting stakes in major holdings like Apple and Bank of America over recent quarters.
Insurance & Dry Powder: The cash serves as essential liquidity ("oxygen") to meet obligations and provides the capacity to make large acquisitions during future market downturns.
While some interpret the cash pile as a bearish signal, Buffett emphasizes that it reflects patience and discipline rather than a prediction of a crash, noting that he prefers to wait for "fat pitches" rather than compromise on valuation.

Given a choice, I would rather trade on the basis of Elliot Wave than the WAGS (Wild Ass Guesses) based the advice given from those who don't really understand markets, those who have political biases, and those that think that politics control markets.

ROTFLMAO!

[Axel Heyst]

What is the index that will be used to judge the price of food increase in the Dis United States of America from July 2026 to December 2026?

This one (#2) is easy as the Fed moves will be on record.

I don't give a fuck about politics. I don't believe politics or politicians are an effective way to change the system.

Number three is no bet: Reason why is covered above.

Here are my terms: Loser buys round the round for each bet we agree upon. Winner determines location where the bet is paid. Should be pretty easy to know where I am going to pick. Also, note I will not travel in order to make payment if I lose.

OK, let's keep it simple. Wager #1 & #2 are on #3 is out. I am not fussy about which index we use. The CPI-you seasonally adjusted month to month or the annual year over year unadjusted, either one is fine with me. But if you don't like CPI then suggest another well-known price index. I do not think different price indices will affect the end results of our wager very much, but we should decide on an index now anyway.

And if you don't want to include girly drinks as part of the wager, no problem. I will take care of whomever I am with and you can do the same on your end. BTW I don't have any particular place in mind because I have been away so long I am reluctant to name one. But I will probably come up with one after I am in town for a few days.

So, the 1st thing I plan to do when I return is to revisit all my favorite haunts from back when and then I will start to update my base to include any new places that I like. It's going to fun to be back. I am looking forward to it like a virgin. 555!

[Axel Heyst]

So when WTI price bounces back into the 80's who will catch the blame for that? Democrats?

Can you or your boy Elvis2008 give me a credible reason why Trump should get credit for the movement of the price of oil?

I'm listening!

I think you are missing the big global picture. It is not about oil per say. It is about the existential threat the Iranians posed to the region, to Europe and to the USA. So, when a bunch of religious fanatics take over a country, imprison and torture their citizens, start terrorizing their neighbors and then they begin building nuclear centrifuges, it becomes obvious that these fanatics don't care about nuclear retaliation as long as they get to kill large numbers of their enemies. Thus, under these unique set of circumstances the defensive possession of nuclear weapons no longer serves as a deterrent. Trump ended the fanatical Mulla's nuclear weapons program just in the nick of time and he killed their top leaders responsible for building these nuclear weapons facilities and for financing most of the terrorism and murder in the region for the last 47 years. Enough is enough.

Yes, oil jumped higher after the Mullas were taken out in February and the IRCG began to block oil tankers from shipping in the straits. I mentioned the price of crude in my last post because it acts as a barometer for what is going on in this war and who is wining. Will crude go back up into the 80's in the short run? I don't know. Maybe. But it ain't going up to $150 a barrel and staying there and it ain't going to do any permanent damage the US Economy. I will bet on that because 1. It looks like the Iranians are finally about to lose their only advantage which was causing trouble in the Straits of Hormuz and that is not me talking, that is the consensus of the marketplace talking. 2. The oil producing countries in the region will in time develop alternate crude oil distribution methods (pipelines) that will bypass the straits entirely and leave the Iranians to fester in their own pre-industrial crap. In the meantime, America will continue to sell our oil to most of Iran's former customers as long as they remain friendly.

It is too early for victory parades, but a favorable outcome to this war is insight and I give Trump a hell of a lot credit for what he has done so far.

[Canada]

No, Elvis, the next Dem President won't be able to "hire" these people to shove the diarrhea back up into the asses of Americans and make it all better.

Trump's Pandemic Part 2? It isn't a virulent rapid-spreading airborne virus so he probably isn't all that excited about it. But I can see how spreading parasites would be the right fit for Know Nothing, Do Nothing Deadbeat Repubs.

Trumps CDC Stopped Monitoring Explosive Diarrhea Parasite Before Outbreak.
July 10, 2026

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum...spora-12180951

Most Trump supporters and anyone else who could have but did not vote for Kamala Harris in 2024 probably won't notice a difference between "explosive diarrhea" and what happens at a Trump rally or in their learned discussions about the economy, stock-trading, fossil fuel vs renewable energy, etc.

Investing in diaper manufacturing and sales companies might be a good idea right about now.

Alzheimer's?

[Elvis 2008]

3rd, yeah with Trump's guy at the head of the FED I see only one possible rate increase between now and the end of the year based on current data. But if the Fed does decide to raise interest rates, it most likely will not happen until after the election unless there is hard new evidence of significant new inflation growth. The most interesting fact of the last week was seeing oil prices decline and the stock market rally after the "truce" ended and the bombing of Iran resumed indicating the IRGC may be running out of cards to play and its ability to influence oil prices is waning. And this is very good news even for Trump haters even though they will never admit it.

That is a good point. There is time to raise rates after the midterms. The Fed could do that then though I see more lower inflation then. It is amazing to see the energy market yawning at the Strait of Hormuz being closed. For sixty years, this was the nightmare energy scenario. Probably the biggest mistake Iran made was attacking its neighbors. They and China and other nations are making adjustments such that their wealth is not dependent on the unstable and crazy Iranian leadership. What has amazed me is how quickly this is being done.