American Politics

[Woodman09]

What Democrats' Win In Alaska Tells Us About November.
Sept. 1, 2022

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...bout-november/

Yeah, I said early on to be mindful that these polls are probably over-sampling Repubs.

Still, the two things and the ONLY things Repubs have going for them to "win" some Congressional seats this mid-term is the long tradition of the out Party in the White House typically doing so in the first mid-term of a presidency anyway and the built-in election-rigging element of extreme gerrymandering favoring Repubs combined with the Repubs' nation-wide packing of state and local ballot-collecting and vote-counting positions with their looniest American democracy-hating QAnon Repubs.

Both of which are critical to swaying the outcome vs the polling and might indeed allow Repubs to prevail.

Otherwise, Repubs have absolutely nothing on their side to justify earning so much as a single free and fair vote and Dems have everything on their side to justify getting 100% of the free and fair votes.

To recap on the poll issue:

Even as actual election results have strongly suggested most polls are way over-sampling Repubs, as of this writing, the Consensus Poll of Polls on the demonstrably winger-leaning RealClearPolitics site and the more highly regarded FiveThirtyEight site show Biden with a higher Job Approval and Favorability Rating than any other Party leader in Congress.

It is higher than either House of Congress.

It is higher than anyone or any entity that can do anything to continue cleaning up the horrific "mess" Trump and his classic Repub policies and stewardship left behind.

It is higher than the immediate former guy had at this point in his so-called presidency and he beats the former guy and 2024 Repub front-runner nominee soundly in a hypothetical head-to-head poll question.

The Dems are also now leading and on the rise in voter preference to control Congress on both sites, following a dramatic plunge for Repubs on that advantage.

And that is before a couple of recent major polls with decidedly good news for Dems (and therefore for America) have been factored into the consensus, before the reaction to Biden's brilliant Soul of America speech has settled in and before most voters have stopped to take a good hard look at the America-hating loons that Trump endorsed into a nomination in many races.

See'Mon. Maaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnn. Maybe KaWaLaaaaaaaa. Can run in 2028?

[Woodman09]

It's times like these, when Repubs love to "beat their chests, like a red gorillas in heat", at how wonderful these (fake) polls have them "winning", in an election yet to be decided at the ballot-box, that I'm ultimately reminded of the 2022 Midterms and the so called "Red Wave", that turned into the "Pick Trickle"(....kkkk!)

So here Repubs are "beating their chests", pre-2022 Midterms and gloating about a "Red Wave" and "Red Tsunami":


AND THEN this happened:



And to complete the analogy,...the "red gorillas, beating their chests", suddenly turn, back into angry squabbling chimpanzees.

Now you should know, I'm not one for the polls w/r to elections. So for me...Seeing is believing!

So until Repubs, actual drive Black voters to turnout on avg. of 12% to 8% plus or more, for them at the ballot-box, I'll stick with the historically actual factual numbers, where on avg. 82% of Black voters, have voted for Democrats.

But as the Vox article noted, then "Dobbs" happened!

So while Repubs continue "to beat their chests", over a slight uptick in the (fake) polls, with Black and Brown voters, they fail to realize their blind-spot in 2024. The killer surge in the WOMEN'S VOTE!, for Joe Biden and Democrats, to uphold their freedoms and rights to bodily autonomy.

As a "Republican Libertarian", I would think you'd see this coming? But then again, Tiny 12, wasn't Nikki Haley your choice for the Repub rep?

PS: Besides, nobody in their right mind, wants Trump, as the 2x impeached, 4x indicted, convict, felon, serial liar, tax cheat, wife cheat, golf cheat, business cheat, racist, wannabe dictator, pussy-grabbing, misogynist, porn-star fucking loser, as President of the USA....NOBODY in their right mind want that! Or whatever lackey sycophant he appoints!

Will You Remember where you Were when on this Historic Night? The Night Donald J Trump Saved America-- Go Home to Mommie.

[Woodman09]

Will You Remember where you Were when on this Historic Night? The Night Donald J Trump Saved America-- Red Wave Baby!

[EihTooms]

Yes, yes, we know; "smart businessman" con artist Donald Trump will make money on this con as was the case with most of his other many, many, many cons:

Trump Media loses $19.2 million in third quarter, Election Day filing reveals.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/05/trum...ndroidappshare

Trump Media experienced a flurry of trading activity Tuesday as a possible proxy for Donald Trumps presidency chances.

The Truth Social parent lost $19.2 million in its third quarter.

Trump Media reported about $2.6 million in revenue and a net loss of $363 million for the first nine months of 2024.

[MarquisdeSade1]

Well, he was a "tight end" in football who, per his own words, had experience with guys from bad neighborhoods coming after him. Makes him "prison ready" LOLOLOL!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/nf...-football.html

https://www.breitbart.com/entertainm...if-trump-wins/

[MarquisdeSade1]

You're projecting once again. And old enough to know how to get under your fascist loving skin! When we fight we win!

https://www.breitbart.com/sports/202...y-chromosomes/

[The Cane]

Trump isn't a "go with the flow and see what happens" guy. He always gets an "upfront" commitment from Vlad for how he wants it each time:

Well, he was a "tight end" in football who, per his own words, had experience with guys from bad neighborhoods coming after him. Makes him "prison ready" LOLOLOL!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/nf...-football.html

[EihTooms]

For those who enjoy polls, of course. Or used to.

In addition to what I posted previously regarding the Election Eve polls showing Harris ahead of Trump in the National Polls and the States she needs to win 270+ Electoral College Votes as well as the Dems ahead of the Repubs in the generic Favored to Control Congress polls in the straight-up 538 Poll Aggregator along with Harris hitting it in the National Polls and the States she needs to win 270 EC Votes in the Race To The White House Aggregator, it turns out that as the evening came to a complete close the 538 Who Is Favored To Win site updated their assessment to show Harris moving ahead of Trump and achieving the 270 EC Votes and good ol' Nate Silver updating his Bulletin to show the polls favoring Harris over Trump.

I guess we will have to wait for Nate's Election Day newsletter to see how he reconciles his final poll results update with whatever might still be sitting in his 'gut.'

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-si...on-polls-model

[Sirioja]

Trump appears to, literally jerk-off his microphone and gives it a a blow-job, like he's sucking Putin's dick, at his latest Wisconsin rally.

Trump shows Wisconsin, how he likes to suck Russian shrimp dicks, using his microphone {...my interpretation...} https://youtu.be/pAjbY5trGdE?t=188

This is the guy, Repubs want for president? (...kkkk!)

2 crazy. World need to get rid of both, dangerous liars.

[The Cane]

I wonder if the moderator would allow us to post some photos of Harris the ho w / Willie the Pimp of SF?

No Photoshop necessary!!

You're projecting once again. And old enough to know how to get under your fascist loving skin! When we fight we win!

[MarquisdeSade1]

https://nypost.com/2024/10/23/us-new...tial-election/

https://www.aol.com/news/cnn-exclusi...113023817.html

He was the one who tapped into the White working-class vote back then to break through the political establishment, and then signed trade agreements and banking laws that created the job losses and resentment that has transformed American politics. His wife was the one whose loss put Trump in the White House, in a way that burns him still.

But so did NAFTA, letting China into the World Trade Organization and the other deals that Clinton ushered in, boosting globalization but gutting American jobs and wages in ways he never imagined.

Trade is a sensitive subject for him, yes it is his TPP helped us keep him from a 3rd term.

(Then again, Clinton said, he was "gobsmacked" that companies that said they'd pay to help with the transition never did. And he blamed the Republicans who rode an anti-Clinton, anti-NAFTA wave in 1994 for never getting the universal health care and job retraining programs he had envisioned as the other side of the agreement.

White trash Bubba "spreads blame like a John Deere spreads manure" or a favorite bit he has about how Bubba would take credit for this unseasonably sunny weather in the final campaign stretch but would blame Trump if it rained.)

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/o...-election.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/b...mortgages.html#text=Banks%20 in%20 China%20 are%20 foreclosing, year%2 see%20 according%20 to%20 official%20 data.

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2024/...onomy-withers/

[EihTooms]

All through the major polling aggregators Harris is polling anywhere from ahead Nationally and at the 270 Electoral College Votes needed to win as she is on the Race To The White House site, or anywhere from a literal tie or, at most, a mere 0. 3 point away in just one state, PA, from 270+ on every other notable poll aggregator, including 538 Who Is Favored To Win, Nate Silver Bulletin, 270 To Win and, yes, the demonstrably Winger-leaning RealClearPolitics site. You can easily find all of those online.

And as of this writing the straight up 538 site that is known to factor in the most credible polls and not to load up on the kind of Repub-biased "herding" polls that Nate Silver has repeatedly identified as cheating in order to lift Trump's poll numbers to match or exceed Harris' by 1-2 points, shows Harris ahead in the National polls, ahead in WI, ahead in MI, ahead in PA (ignore the word even there and tap on it. Harris is ahead in that state as much as RCP needs to give Trump the whole thing. LOL), which would give her the 270+ EC Votes, as well as showing Dems ahead of Repubs on Preference to Control Congress, Harris' Favorable vs Unfavorable rating at only -2 points compared to Trump's -8. 6 point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Oh, and for those interested in how the most notable Presidential Betting Market, PredictIt, is tracking it as of this writing, they show Harris at 54 vs Trump at 52. But those betting markets change by the minute, flipping this way and that way in a blink. So it is possible, in fact probable that it will not be anywhere near what is shown in the screenshot below by the time I submit this, much less by the time it gets posted a few hours from now. For whatever that is worth as an indicator for who will win. I used to think it mattered, that people who made those bets must be putting in at least a tad more due diligence on the issues than most. Now that I know how they work, I no longer think that way.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election

[EihTooms]

No, this here is how he does it! LOL!

Trump isn't a "go with the flow and see what happens" guy. He always gets an "upfront" commitment from Vlad for how he wants it each time:

[MarquisdeSade1]

No, this here is how he does it! LOL!

I wonder if the moderator would allow us to post some photos of Harris the ho w / Willie the Pimp of SF?

No Photoshop necessary!!

[The Cane]

Trump appears to, literally jerk-off his microphone and gives it a a blow-job, like he's sucking Putin's dick, at his latest Wisconsin rally.

Trump shows Wisconsin, how he likes to suck Russian shrimp dicks, using his microphone {...my interpretation...} https://youtu.be/pAjbY5trGdE?t=188

This is the guy, Repubs want for president? (...kkkk!)

No, this here is how he does it! LOL!